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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited July 2019
    FF43 said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    If there is another referendum, and there are very plausible pathways to one, I expect independence to win. Because no-one much will argue for the Union.

    I am as unionist as they come but the gig's up if the other lot don't want us. Boris et al are pretty clear the interests of Scotland (and Northern Ireland too) feature precisely nowhere on their radar. At least Theresa May cared.
    Even with No Deal a Yes vote for independence in Scotland is not guaranteed.

    An October 2018 poll had it No 52% and Yes 48%, and April 2019 poll had it No 48% Yes 52% and 20% and 13% Don't Know in both cases.



    http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-a-second-scottish-independence-referendum-in-the-event-of#table

    While 51% of Scottish Remainers now back Yes because of Brexit, 64% of Scottish Leavers still back No.


    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2019/07/could-brexit-yet-undermine-the-future-of-the-british-state/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,873

    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the YouGov Tory members' poll are out now.

    As well as the headline figures of Boris 74% and Hunt 26% they also have some additional questions which shows Tory members more committed to Brexit than ever but easing off in support for more austerity.

    53% of Tory members say the next PM should resign if Britain has not left the EU by 31st October with just 34% opposed.

    67% back proroguing Parliament to enforce No Deal if necessary with just 27% opposed.

    45% thing Boris could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and 90% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal. Only 22% think Hunt could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and only 27% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal.

    52% back the government increasing public spending in the event of No Deal, even if it means more public borrowing and debt to support the economy.

    Only 41% of Tory members think the government should maintain limits on public spending after Brexit in order to keep public borrowing and debt under control.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    Thanks for that. Cake and eat it rather, isn't it. I'm concerned too by the two-thirds of Tory members who would be prepared to close down Parliament if it was necessary to do that to Leave, and to do so with No Deal.
    The commitment to democracy seems a bit thin!
    I agree but would change 'thin' to totally absent

    Also I am not one of those supporting no deal and never will be
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503

    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the YouGov Tory members' poll are out now.

    As well as the headline figures of Boris 74% and Hunt 26% they also have some additional questions which shows Tory members more committed to Brexit than ever but easing off in support for more austerity.

    53% of Tory members say the next PM should resign if Britain has not left the EU by 31st October with just 34% opposed.

    67% back proroguing Parliament to enforce No Deal if necessary with just 27% opposed.

    45% thing Boris could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and 90% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal. Only 22% think Hunt could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and only 27% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal.

    52% back the government increasing public spending in the event of No Deal, even if it means more public borrowing and debt to support the economy.

    Only 41% of Tory members think the government should maintain limits on public spending after Brexit in order to keep public borrowing and debt under control.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    Thanks for that. Cake and eat it rather, isn't it. I'm concerned too by the two-thirds of Tory members who would be prepared to close down Parliament if it was necessary to do that to Leave, and to do so with No Deal.
    The commitment to democracy seems a bit thin!
    Proroging parliament to force No Deal may be a short term desire of the membership. They may change their mind when the next PM who is less to their liking decides to do it...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380
    India look to have the beating of Sri Lanka, and the Saffirs are doing remarkably well against the Aussies. Meanwhile England are 1 down against Sweden in the Womens Football.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380

    HYUFD said:

    In terms of demographics of support, Hunt leads with Tory members who were Remainers on 73% to 27% for Boris and does better than his overall voting share with Scottish Tories, with whom he gets 45% while Boris gets 55%, with members in London with whom he gets 40% to 60% for Boris and with members aged 18 to 48 with whom he gets 28% to 72% for Boris and with Tory members who are women with whom he gets 30% to 70% for Boris.


    Boris does best with Tory members who voted Leave with 86% to just 14% for Hunt, Tory members in the North with whom he gets 80% to just 20% for Hunt and Tory members aged 50 to 64 with whom he gets 77% to just 23% for Hunt.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    You do like to quote stats on conservative members who at best are 160,000 of which many are recent UKIP entryists.

    They represent a tiny number of voters and in order to govern the party has to reach far beyond including millions of young people who absolutely reject the 'Farage' attitude to the UK

    To be fair, he's just quoting the figures, and it gives a picture of the sort of people who think will do their Right Thing. Might send a cold shiver down the spine. but there it is.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380

    India look to have the beating of Sri Lanka, and the Saffirs are doing remarkably well against the Aussies. Meanwhile England are 1 down against Sweden in the Womens Football.


    Sweden 2 up now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,873
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the YouGov Tory members' poll are out now.

    As well as the headline figures of Boris 74% and Hunt 26% they also have some additional questions which shows Tory members more committed to Brexit than ever but easing off in support for more austerity.

    53% of Tory members say the next PM should resign if Britain has not left the EU by 31st October with just 34% opposed.

    67% back proroguing Parliament to enforce No Deal if necessary with just 27% opposed.

    45% thing Boris could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and 90% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal. Only 22% think Hunt could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and only 27% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal.

    52% back the government increasing public spending in the event of No Deal, even if it means more public borrowing and debt to support the economy.

    Only 41% of Tory members think the government should maintain limits on public spending after Brexit in order to keep public borrowing and debt under control.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    Thanks for that. Cake and eat it rather, isn't it. I'm concerned too by the two-thirds of Tory members who would be prepared to close down Parliament if it was necessary to do that to Leave, and to do so with No Deal.
    The commitment to democracy seems a bit thin!
    Proroging parliament to force No Deal may be a short term desire of the membership. They may change their mind when the next PM who is less to their liking decides to do it...
    Judging by my telephone call from Team Boris last night and my confirmation I reject no deal 100% I was told that Boris only supports no deal as a negotiating strategy and will agree a deal. Furthermore when I expressed concern that the Union would be under threat I was told that the Union of Scotland, Wales and Ireland are paramount and would be strengthened

    If these comments are true then Hyufd and others are being played to get Boris into office

    One thing is near certain we will find out in the coming weeks
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    HYUFD said:

    In terms of demographics of support, Hunt leads with Tory members who were Remainers on 73% to 27% for Boris and does better than his overall voting share with Scottish Tories, with whom he gets 45% while Boris gets 55%, with members in London with whom he gets 40% to 60% for Boris and with members aged 18 to 48 with whom he gets 28% to 72% for Boris and with Tory members who are women with whom he gets 30% to 70% for Boris.


    Boris does best with Tory members who voted Leave with 86% to just 14% for Hunt, Tory members in the North with whom he gets 80% to just 20% for Hunt and Tory members aged 50 to 64 with whom he gets 77% to just 23% for Hunt.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    You do like to quote stats on conservative members who at best are 160,000 of which many are recent UKIP entryists.

    They represent a tiny number of voters and in order to govern the party has to reach far beyond including millions of young people who absolutely reject the 'Farage' attitude to the UK

    The Tories are not going to win on a pro Remain message now, if you want to Remain you will vote LD or to a lesser extent Labour.


    The Tories will only win a majority at the next general election by winning the vast majority of Leave voters and reducing leakage to the Brexit Party on a firm deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal message.


    The Tories will also not win young voters either, they will also vote Labour, LD or Green on average, the key voters the Tories need to win are those aged 45-55, they will determine who becomes the next PM
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the YouGov Tory members' poll are out now.

    As well as the headline figures of Boris 74% and Hunt 26% they also have some additional questions which shows Tory members more committed to Brexit than ever but easing off in support for more austerity.

    53% of Tory members say the next PM should resign if Britain has not left the EU by 31st October with just 34% opposed.

    67% back proroguing Parliament to enforce No Deal if necessary with just 27% opposed.

    45% thing Boris could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and 90% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal. Only 22% think Hunt could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and only 27% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal.

    52% back the government increasing public spending in the event of No Deal, even if it means more public borrowing and debt to support the economy.

    Only 41% of Tory members think the government should maintain limits on public spending after Brexit in order to keep public borrowing and debt under control.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    Thanks for that. Cake and eat it rather, isn't it. I'm concerned too by the two-thirds of Tory members who would be prepared to close down Parliament if it was necessary to do that to Leave, and to do so with No Deal.
    The commitment to democracy seems a bit thin!
    Proroging parliament to force No Deal may be a short term desire of the membership. They may change their mind when the next PM who is less to their liking decides to do it...
    Judging by my telephone call from Team Boris last night and my confirmation I reject no deal 100% I was told that Boris only supports no deal as a negotiating strategy and will agree a deal. Furthermore when I expressed concern that the Union would be under threat I was told that the Union of Scotland, Wales and Ireland are paramount and would be strengthened

    If these comments are true then Hyufd and others are being played to get Boris into office

    One thing is near certain we will find out in the coming weeks
    As I have said before Boris wants a FTA for GB ultimately not No Deal and if he wins a majority that is what he would move to
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,575

    Nigelb said:

    matt said:

    R

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:



    The Commons will likely VONC Boris before the autumn given he has not ruled out No Deal, Boris then wins a majority on a pre October general election on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform by October 31st

    If Johnson succeeds I think that "No Deal" would be a very short term state and unlikely to last beyond the end of 2019. The EU will not want that state to last any more than the UK and a longer term deal of in the interests of both parties would follow quickly. That is in contrast to the position up to now where the EU has chosen to play hardball in the hope that the UK will either chose to remain or accept May's abject "Deal" that would settle next to nothing other than to strengthen the EU's position in the negotiations that would follow.

    No discussions on post no deal departures on future trade deals until U.K. pays its debts, resolves EU citizens rights and accepts the backstop.
    And you are taking them at their word.
    It seems a reasonable position. To do otherwise would be akin to driving without insurance because you know you’re a better driver than everybody else.
    If you want a driving analogy, the UK's negotiating position to date has been akin to a couple approaching a UK used car salesman, telling them that we are desperate to buy one of their cars and asking them to name their price and choose the car. They've selected an old banger which is just as bad as the clapped out model which they sold us previously at an inflated price and which we're still driving now. We've been asked to sign the cheque for the deal with a promise that the test drive will be fine, but the salesman has insisted on a legal provision that waives all our of rights if it is not.

    When the purchaser at the last minute discloses that they are having second thought and wondering about engaging someone else to negotiate for them, the used car salesman insists that those terms will not be negotiated even if the purchaser walks away and he loses the deal.

    You choose to believe the used car salesman. I choose not to. I realise that I might need to walk away, while telling the salesman that he can call me when he is prepared to offer something better.
    No, I don’t want any analogies.
    They are invariably obfuscatory or irrelevant, whether deliberately so or not.

    Of course the couple originally had a perfectly serviceable, indeed high quality, car which for some reason they chose to abandon.
    And when they walked away from the deal they didn't keep their car, they walked into a lamppost.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,873
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In terms of demographics of support, Hunt leads with Tory members who were Remainers on 73% to 27% for Boris and does better than his overall voting share with Scottish Tories, with whom he gets 45% while Boris gets 55%, with members in London with whom he gets 40% to 60% for Boris and with members aged 18 to 48 with whom he gets 28% to 72% for Boris and with Tory members who are women with whom he gets 30% to 70% for Boris.


    Boris does best with Tory members who voted Leave with 86% to just 14% for Hunt, Tory members in the North with whom he gets 80% to just 20% for Hunt and Tory members aged 50 to 64 with whom he gets 77% to just 23% for Hunt.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    You do like to quote stats on conservative members who at best are 160,000 of which many are recent UKIP entryists.

    They represent a tiny number of voters and in order to govern the party has to reach far beyond including millions of young people who absolutely reject the 'Farage' attitude to the UK

    The Tories are not going to win on a pro Remain message now, if you want to Remain you will vote LD or to a lesser extent Labour.


    The Tories will only win a majority at the next general election by winning the vast majority of Leave voters and reducing leakage to the Brexit Party on a firm deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal message.


    The Tories will also not win young voters either, they will also vote Labour, LD or Green on average, the key voters the Tories need to win are those aged 45-55, they will determine who becomes the next PM
    You seem to have a fixation that unless you follow the Farage no deal brexit you cannot be a conservative

    You are mistaken and it does look like Boris is playing with you

    And dismissing the young is arrogant and unacceptable

    We will see over the coming months how this pans out but you could well be very disappointed
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,873
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the YouGov Tory members' poll are out now.

    As well as the headline figures of Boris 74% and Hunt 26% they also have some additional questions which shows Tory members more committed to Brexit than ever but easing off in support for more austerity.

    53% of Tory members say the next PM should resign if Britain has not left the EU by 31st October with just 34% opposed.

    67% back proroguing Parliament to enforce No Deal if necessary with just 27% opposed.

    45% thing Boris could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and 90% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal. Only 22% think Hunt could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and only 27% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal.

    52% back the government increasing public spending in the event of No Deal, even if it means more public borrowing and debt to support the economy.

    Only 41% of Tory members think the government should maintain limits on public spending after Brexit in order to keep public borrowing and debt under control.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    Thanks for that. Cake and eat it rather, isn't it. I'm concerned too by the two-thirds of Tory members who would be prepared to close down Parliament if it was necessary to do that to Leave, and to do so with No Deal.
    The commitment to democracy seems a bit thin!
    Proroging parliament to force No Deal may be a short term desire of the membership. They may change their mind when the next PM who is less to their liking decides to do it...
    Judging by my telephone call from Team Boris last night and my confirmation I reject no deal 100% I was told that Boris only supports no deal as a negotiating strategy and will agree a deal. Furthermore when I expressed concern that the Union would be under threat I was told that the Union of Scotland, Wales and Ireland are paramount and would be strengthened

    If these comments are true then Hyufd and others are being played to get Boris into office

    One thing is near certain we will find out in the coming weeks
    As I have said before Boris wants a FTA for GB ultimately not No Deal and if he wins a majority that is what he would move to
    We are a long way from a majority.

    You like quoting polls, can you show a poll over the last few weeks that shows a conservative majority government
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In terms of demographics of support, Hunt leads with Tory members who were Remainers on 73% to 27% for Boris and does better than his overall voting share with Scottish Tories, with whom he gets 45% while Boris gets 55%, with members in London with whom he gets 40% to 60% for Boris and with members aged 18 to 48 with whom he gets 28% to 72% for Boris and with Tory members who are women with whom he gets 30% to 70% for Boris.


    Boris does best with Tory members who voted Leave with 86% to just 14% for Hunt, Tory members in the North with whom he gets 80% to just 20% for Hunt and Tory members aged 50 to 64 with whom he gets 77% to just 23% for Hunt.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    You do like to quote stats on conservative members who at best are 160,000 of which many are recent UKIP entryists.

    They represent a tiny number of voters and in order to govern the party has to reach far beyond including millions of young people who absolutely reject the 'Farage' attitude to the UK

    The Tories are not going to win on a pro Remain message now, if you want to Remain you will vote LD or to a lesser extent Labour.


    The Tories will only win a majority at the next general election by winning the vast majority of Leave voters and reducing leakage to the Brexit Party on a firm deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal message.


    The Tories will also not win young voters either, they will also vote Labour, LD or Green on average, the key voters the Tories need to win are those aged 45-55, they will determine who becomes the next PM
    You seem to have a fixation that unless you follow the Farage no deal brexit you cannot be a conservative

    You are mistaken and it does look like Boris is playing with you

    And dismissing the young is arrogant and unacceptable

    We will see over the coming months how this pans out but you could well be very disappointed
    I don't want No Deal Brexit, I want to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and move to a FTA for GB. However given the current Commons has consistently voted against the Withdrawal Agreement (even Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3) then if the Tories have not won a majority by October 31st in order to pass the Withdrawal Agreement, the only way to deliver Brexit will be with No Deal.

    If the Tories extend Article 50 again then Farage will have them for lunch and the Tories will fall to 4th, behind the Brexit Party, the LDs and Labour.

    Boris knows this which is why he has commited to Leave the EU Deal or No Deal on October 31st
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Mr. NorthWales, are you not tempted to feign the opposite opinion next time to see what response you get (or ask another like-minded Conservative to do so)?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,873
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In terms of demographics of support, Hunt leads with Tory members who were Remainers on 73% to 27% for Boris and does better than his overall voting share with Scottish Tories, with whom he gets 45% while Boris gets 55%, with members in London with whom he gets 40% to 60% for Boris and with members aged 18 to 48 with whom he gets 28% to 72% for Boris and with Tory members who are women with whom he gets 30% to 70% for Boris.


    Boris does best with Tory members who voted Leave with 86% to just 14% for Hunt, Tory members in the North with whom he gets 80% to just 20% for Hunt and Tory members aged 50 to 64 with whom he gets 77% to just 23% for Hunt.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    You do like to quote stats on conservative members who at best are 160,000 of which many are recent UKIP entryists.

    They represent a tiny number of voters and in order to govern the party has to reach far beyond including millions of young people who absolutely reject the 'Farage' attitude to the UK

    The Tories are not going to win on a pro Remain message now, if you want to Remain you will vote LD or to a lesser extent Labour.


    The Tories will only win a majority at the next general election by winning the vast majority of Leave voters and reducing leakage to the Brexit Party on a firm deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal message.


    The Tories will also not win young voters either, they will also vote Labour, LD or Green on average, the key voters the Tories need to win are those aged 45-55, they will determine who becomes the next PM
    You seem to have a fixation that unless you follow the Farage no deal brexit you cannot be a conservative

    You are mistaken and it does look like Boris is playing with you

    And dismissing the young is arrogant and unacceptable

    We will see over the coming months how this pans out but you could well be very disappointed
    I don't want No Deal Brexit, I want to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and move to a FTA for GB. However given the current Commons has consistently voted against the Withdrawal Agreement (even Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3) then if the Tories have not won a majority by October 31st in order to pass the Withdrawal Agreement, the only way to deliver Brexit will be with No Deal.

    If the Tories extend Article 50 again then Farage will have them for lunch and the Tories will fall to 4th, behind the Brexit Party, the LDs and Labour.

    Boris knows this which is why he has commited to Leave the EU Deal or No Deal on October 31st
    He is playing you
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,070
    edited July 2019
    HYFUD:
    One thing is near certain we will find out in the coming weeks

    As I have said before Boris wants a FTA for GB ultimately not No Deal and if he wins a majority that is what he would move to


    Cicero:

    Since he can't get An FTA by 31 October, why would he suggest that he can?

    Who is the fool here?

    i) Boris, who "genuinely believes an FTA can be made before the deadline", or
    ii) the people he is trying fool that he can get a deal before the deadline, even though there is no chance of such a deal?

    If he "genuinely" wants a deal why is he saying he would leave without one?

    The thing is that he is clearly lying one way on another, which is why he's not fit for office. we don't need to wait three months to make this judgement while he puts the country into a crisis: he's a liar now.

    Or you are.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247

    India look to have the beating of Sri Lanka, and the Saffirs are doing remarkably well against the Aussies. Meanwhile England are 1 down against Sweden in the Womens Football.

    Sri Lanka are more buggered than a reluctant Turkish conscript.

    I think Du Plessis is playing his last match. He seems like a man who has lost all cares in the world.

    If South Africa win, we face the cheating convicts in the semis.

    I have to say that would not be my preferred opponent. Equally, we would have to beat both teams to win the tournament anyway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In terms of demographics of support, Hunt leads with Tory members who were Remainers on 73% to 27% for Boris and does better than his overall voting share with Scottish Tories, with whom he gets 45% while Boris gets 55%, with members in London with whom he gets 40% to 60% for Boris and with members aged 18 to 48 with whom he gets 28% to 72% for Boris and with Tory members who are women with whom he gets 30% to 70% for Boris.


    Boris does best with Tory members who voted Leave with 86% to just 14% for Hunt, Tory members in the North with whom he gets 80% to just 20% for Hunt and Tory members aged 50 to 64 with whom he gets 77% to just 23% for Hunt.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    You do like to quote stats on conservative members who at best are 160,000 of which many are recent UKIP entryists.

    They represent a tiny number of voters and in order to govern the party has to reach far beyond including millions of young people who absolutely reject the 'Farage' attitude to the UK

    The Tories are not going to win on a pro Remain message now, if you want to Remain you will vote LD or to a lesser extent Labour.


    The Tories will only win a majority at the next general election by winning the vast majority of Leave voters and reducing leakage to the Brexit Party on a firm deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal message.


    The Tories will also not win young voters either, they will also vote Labour, LD or Green on average, the key voters the Tories need to win are those aged 45-55, they will determine who becomes the next PM
    You seem to have a fixation that unless you follow the Farage no deal brexit you cannot be a conservative

    You are mistaken and it does look like Boris is playing with you

    And dismissing the young is arrogant and unacceptable

    We will see over the coming months how this pans out but you could well be very disappointed
    I don't wan
    If the Tories extend Article 50 again then Farage will have them for lunch and the Tories will fall to 4th, behind the Brexit Party, the LDs and Labour.

    Boris knows this which is why he has commited to Leave the EU Deal or No Deal on October 31st
    He is playing you
    He isn't as he knows if he does not deliver Brexit by then and extends again he will be toppled as PM but in any case it would probably be too late as the Brexit Party would already have overtaken the Tories
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,873

    Mr. NorthWales, are you not tempted to feign the opposite opinion next time to see what response you get (or ask another like-minded Conservative to do so)?

    It was suggested this morning and I agreed there is likely another script available. As I have said to Hyufd, Boris is playing with him, and no doubt myself, but my 'neither' ballot has been returned so I await to see how it pans out
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the YouGov Tory members' poll are out now.

    As well as the headline figures of Boris 74% and Hunt 26% they also have some additional questions which shows Tory members more committed to Brexit than ever but easing off in support for more austerity.

    53% of Tory members say the next PM should resign if Britain has not left the EU by 31st October with just 34% opposed.

    67% back proroguing Parliament to enforce No Deal if necessary with just 27% opposed.

    45% thing Boris could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and 90% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal. Only 22% think Hunt could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and only 27% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal.

    52% back the government increasing public spending in the event of No Deal, even if it means more public borrowing and debt to support the economy.

    Only 41% of Tory members think the government should maintain limits on public spending after Brexit in order to keep public borrowing and debt under control.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    Thanks for that. Cake and eat it rather, isn't it. I'm concerned too by the two-thirds of Tory members who would be prepared to close down Parliament if it was necessary to do that to Leave, and to do so with No Deal.
    The commitment to democracy seems a bit thin!
    Proroging parliament to force No Deal may be a short term desire of the membership. They may change their mind when the next PM who is less to their liking decides to do it...
    Judging by my telephone call from Team Boris last night and my confirmation I reject no deal 100% I was told that Boris only supports no deal as a negotiating strategy and will agree a deal. Furthermore when I expressed concern that the Union would be under threat I was told that the Union of Scotland, Wales and Ireland are paramount and would be strengthened

    If these comments are true then Hyufd and others are being played to get Boris into office

    One thing is near certain we will find out in the coming weeks
    As I have said before Boris wants a FTA for GB ultimately not No Deal and if he wins a majority that is what he would move to
    We are a long way from a majority.

    You like quoting polls, can you show a poll over the last few weeks that shows a conservative majority government
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,873
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the YouGov Tory members' poll are out now.

    As well as the headline figures of Boris 74% and Hunt 26% they also have some additional questions which shows Tory members more committed to Brexit than ever but easing off in support for more austerity.

    53% of Tory members say the next PM should resign if Britain has not left the EU by 31st October with just 34% opposed.

    67% back proroguing Parliament to enforce No Deal if necessary with just 27% opposed.

    45% thing Boris could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and 90% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal. Only 22% think Hunt could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and only 27% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal.

    52% back the government increasing public spending in the event of No Deal, even if it means more public borrowing and debt to support the economy.

    Only 41% of Tory members think the government should maintain limits on public spending after Brexit in order to keep public borrowing and debt under control.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    Thanks for that. Cake and eat it rather, isn't it. I'm concerned too by the two-thirds of Tory members who would be prepared to close down Parliament if it was necessary to do that to Leave, and to do so with No Deal.
    The commitment to democracy seems a bit thin!
    Proroging parliament to force No Deal may be a short term desire of the membership. They may change their mind when the next PM who is less to their liking decides to do it...
    Judging by my telephone call from Team Boris last night and my confirmation I reject no deal 100% I was told that Boris only supports no deal as a negotiating strategy and will agree a deal. Furthermore when I expressed concern that the Union would be under threat I was told that the Union of Scotland, Wales and Ireland are paramount and would be strengthened

    If these comments are true then Hyufd and others are being played to get Boris into office

    One thing is near certain we will find out in the coming weeks
    As I have said before Boris wants a FTA for GB ultimately not No Deal and if he wins a majority that is what he would move to
    We are a long way from a majority.

    You like quoting polls, can you show a poll over the last few weeks that shows a conservative majority government
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20
    Where is the poll showing one third support
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380
    I think it's been shown that's it's going to be quite difficult to get the necessary legislation through to hold a GE and 'agree' No Deal. Or come, to that, a deal of any sort.
    After all, the new PM will have to write to or email the Commission/Council to say 'I want a meeting' and then a date is going to have to be agreed. He can't turn up and bang on the door.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Mr. HYUFD, such polling holds no weight at all given how poor polling has often been and the critical fact that what happens regarding the EU will radically alter the polling landscape.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,873
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In terms of demographics of support, Hunt leads with Tory members who were Remainers on 73% to 27% for Boris and does better than his overall voting share with Scottish Tories, with whom he gets 45% while Boris gets 55%, with members in London with whom he gets 40% to 60% for Boris and with members aged 18 to 48 with whom he gets 28% to 72% for Boris and with Tory members who are women with whom he gets 30% to 70% for Boris.


    Boris does best with Tory members who voted Leave with 86% to just 14% for Hunt, Tory members in the North with whom he gets 80% to just 20% for Hunt and Tory members aged 50 to 64 with whom he gets 77% to just 23% for Hunt.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    You do like to quote stats on conservative members who at best are 160,000 of which many are recent UKIP entryists.

    They represent a tiny number of voters and in order to govern the party has to reach far beyond including millions of young people who absolutely reject the 'Farage' attitude to the UK

    The Tories are not going to win on a pro Remain message now, if you want to Remain you will vote LD or to a lesser extent Labour.


    The Tories will only win a majority at the next general election by winning the vast majority of Leave voters and reducing leakage to the Brexit Party on a firm deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal message.


    The Tories will also not win young voters either, they will also vote Labour, LD or Green on average, the key voters the Tories need to win are those aged 45-55, they will determine who becomes the next PM
    You seem to have a fixation that unless you follow the Farage no deal brexit you cannot be a conservative

    You are mistaken and it does look like Boris is playing with you

    And dismissing the young is arrogant and unacceptable

    We will see over the coming months how this pans out but you could well be very disappointed
    I don't wan
    If the Tories extend Article 50 again then Farage will have them for lunch and the Tories will fall to 4th, behind the Brexit Party, the LDs and Labour.

    Boris knows this which is why he has commited to Leave the EU Deal or No Deal on October 31st
    He is playing you
    He isn't as he knows if he does not deliver Brexit by then and extends again he will be toppled as PM but in any case it would probably be too late as the Brexit Party would already have overtaken the Tories
    Rubbish
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Cicero said:

    HYFUD:
    One thing is near certain we will find out in the coming weeks

    As I have said before Boris wants a FTA for GB ultimately not No Deal and if he wins a majority that is what he would move to


    Cicero:

    Since he can't get An FTA by 31 October, why would he suggest that he can?

    Who is the fool here?

    i) Boris, who "genuinely believes an FTA can be made before the deadline", or
    ii) the people he is trying fool that he can get a deal before the deadline, even though there is no chance of such a deal?

    If he "genuinely" wants a deal why is he saying he would leave without one?

    The thing is that he is clearly lying one way on another, which is why he's not fit for office. we don't need to wait three months to make this judgement while he puts the country into a crisis: he's a liar now.

    Or you are.



    If Boris gets a majority before October 31st and the Commons then passes the Withdrawal Agreement with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD, negotiations can then begin on a FTA for GB with the EU
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247

    He can't turn up and bang on the door.

    If he was told it was female, Boris would be very happy to bang the door.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In terms of demographics of support, Hunt leads with Tory members who were Remainers on 73% to 27% for Boris and does better than his overall voting share with Scottish Tories, with whom he gets 45% while Boris gets 55%, with members in London with whom he gets 40% to 60% for Boris and with members aged 18 to 48 with whom he gets 28% to 72% for Boris and with Tory members who are women with whom he gets 30% to 70% for Boris.


    Boris does best with Tory members who voted Leave with 86% to just 14% for Hunt, Tory members in the North with whom he gets 80% to just 20% for Hunt and Tory members aged 50 to 64 with whom he gets 77% to just 23% for Hunt.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    You do like to quote stats on conservative members who at best are 160,000 of which many are recent UKIP entryists.

    They represent a tiny number of voters and in order to govern the party has to reach far beyond including millions of young people who absolutely reject the 'Farage' attitude to the UK

    The Tories are not going to win on a pro Remain message now, if you want to Remain you will vote LD or to a lesser extent Labour.


    The Tories will only win a majority at the next general election by winning the vast majority of Leave voters and reducing leakage to the Brexit Party on a firm deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal message.


    The Tories will also not win young voters either, they will also vote Labour, LD or Green on average, the key voters the Tories need to win are those aged 45-55, they will determine who becomes the next PM
    You seem to have a fixation that unless you follow the Farage no deal brexit you cannot be a conservative

    You are mistaken and it does look like Boris is playing with you

    And dismissing the young is arrogant and unacceptable

    We will see over the coming months how this pans out but you could well be very disappointed
    I don't wan
    If the Tories extend Article 50 again then Farage will have them for lunch and the Tories will fall to 4th, behind the Brexit Party, the LDs and Labour.

    Boris knows this which is why he has commited to Leave the EU Deal or No Deal on October 31st
    He is playing you
    He isn't as he knows if he does not deliver Brexit by then and extends again he will be toppled as PM but in any case it would probably be too late as the Brexit Party would already have overtaken the Tories
    Actually the YouGov poll shows that a majority of Tory members think the PM shouldn’t resign if we don’t leave on October 31st.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,873
    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    HYFUD:
    One thing is near certain we will find out in the coming weeks

    As I have said before Boris wants a FTA for GB ultimately not No Deal and if he wins a majority that is what he would move to
    Cicero:

    Since he can't get An FTA by 31 October, why would he suggest that he can?

    Who is the fool here?

    i) Boris, who "genuinely believes an FTA can be made before the deadline", or
    ii) the people he is trying fool that he can get a deal before the deadline, even though there is no chance of such a deal?

    If he "genuinely" wants a deal why is he saying he would leave without one?

    The thing is that he is clearly lying one way on another, which is why he's not fit for office. we don't need to wait three months to make this judgement while he puts the country into a crisis: he's a liar now.

    Or you are.



    If Boris gets a majority before October 31st and the Commons then passes the Withdrawal Agreement with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD, negotiations can then begin on a FTA for GB with the EU

    Boris will not get a majority before the 31st October
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380
    ydoethur said:

    He can't turn up and bang on the door.

    If he was told it was female, Boris would be very happy to bang the door.
    LIKE!!!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247
    edited July 2019

    Boris will not get a majority before hell freezes over

    FTFY.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the YouGov Tory members' poll are out now.

    As well as the headline figures of Boris 74% and Hunt 26% they also have some additional questions which shows Tory members more committed to Brexit than ever but easing off in support for more austerity.

    53% of Tory members say the next PM should resign if Britain has not left the EU by 31st October with just 34% opposed.

    67% back proroguing Parliament to enforce No Deal if necessary with just 27% opposed.

    45% thing Boris could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and 90% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal. Only 22% think Hunt could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and only 27% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal.

    52% back the government increasing public spending in the event of No Deal, even if it means more public borrowing and debt to support the economy.

    Only 41% of Tory members think the government should maintain limits on public spending after Brexit in order to keep public borrowing and debt under control.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    Thanks for that. Cake and eaty seems a bit thin!
    Proroging parliament to force No Deal may be a short term desire of the membership. They may change their mind when the next PM who is less to their liking decides to do it...
    Judging by my telephone call from Team Boris last night and my confirmation I reject no deal 100% I was told that Boris only supports no deal as a negotiating strategy and will agree a deal. Furthermore when I expressed concern that the Union would be under threat I was told that the Union of Scotland, Wales and Ireland are paramount and would be strengthened

    If these comments are true then Hyufd and others are being played to get Boris into office

    One thing is near certain we will find out in the coming weeks
    As I have said before Boris wants a FTA for GB ultimately not No Deal and if he wins a majority that is what he would move to
    We are a long way frty government
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20
    Where is the poll showing one third support
    Boris can win a Tory majority with just a third of the vote under FPTP now we have 4 way politics with the Tories, Labour, LDs and Brexit Party all in the 15 to 25% range if he squeezes the Brexit Party back a bit.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,308

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    The yawn is erses like you, thick southerners who think they are still in the empire days. We do not need some sniveling creeps from Westminster telling us what we can and cannot do.
    Then become PM and sort it (and us) out. Nichola Sturgeon is one of the UK's most talented politicians. Why isn't she UK PM? No reason except then limitations she puts on herself.
    Now you really are talking mince, the SNP are treated badly at Westminster, Scotland is treated with contempt by Westminster. We have just witnessed two absolute balloons, one of which will be PM, state live on media that they will ignore Scotland's wishes and cancel democracy by not allowing the democratically elected Government enact their manifesto promise.
    A pox on your union.
    I don't agree. I think that the perception comes from inside. Nichola herself has said she has to be twice as good because she's Scottish. Alec Salmond has said Scotland is a nation of drunks. These are internal beliefs from people with deep issues about their own country.
    Yep, we Scots really need to take a leaf out of the English book of entitlement, exceptionalism and self regard, just look at where it's got them today. If we work very hard we too could be in that position.
    If that would mean that some Scots in particular would start feeling exceptional, hold themselves in high regard, and feel entitled to life giving them great things, then yes, that would be progress indeed.

    The more I live here the more I realise that the independence movement is almost wholly built on people's low opinion of their own nationality. I hear things like 'English people made me feel like crap when I was at uni', 'I feel like a foreigner when I visit London', 'When a Scottish person wins a sporting event they're called British; when they lose they're called Scottish'. The thing all these statements have in common is that all of them are internal - those feelings have not been produced by the effect of external English malice, and indeed that would be almost impossible to do.


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    I do wonder whether Boris - who is said to be shy and needy to be liked - is ready for the level of exposure and hatred that is going to come his way when he gets the top job?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    Mr. HYUFD, such polling holds no weight at all given how poor polling has often been and the critical fact that what happens regarding the EU will radically alter the polling landscape.

    If we do not Leave the EU by October 31st then the Brexit Party will be largest party whether Boris or Hunt is Tory leader, I don't doubt that.

    As YouGov showed, if Brexit has not happened by October and Britain remains a member of the EU while negotiations continue under Boris it would be Brexit Party 23%, LDs 33%, Labour 20%, Tories 20%.

    Under Hunt it would be Brexit Party 27%, Tories 21%, LDs 20%, Labour 20%.


    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/28/jeremy-hunt-now-leads-boris-johnson-publics-prefer
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    HYFUD:
    One thing is near certain we will find out in the coming weeks

    As I have said before Boris wants a FTA for GB ultimately not No Deal and if he wins a majority that is what he would move to
    Cicero:

    Since he can't get An FTA by 31 October, why would he suggest that he can?

    Who is the fool here?

    i) Boris, who "genuinely believes an FTA can be made before the deadline", or
    ii) the people he is trying fool that he can get a deal before the deadline, even though there is no chance of such a deal?

    If he "genuinely" wants a deal why is he saying he would leave without one?

    The thing is that he is clearly lying one way on another, which is why he's not fit for office. we don't need to wait three months to make this judgement while he puts the country into a crisis: he's a liar now.

    Or you are.

    If Boris gets a majority before October 31st and the Commons then passes the Withdrawal Agreement with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD, negotiations can then begin on a FTA for GB with the EU

    Boris will not get a majority before the 31st October

    He might well do if Comres is anything to go by
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited July 2019
    IanB2 said:

    I do wonder whether Boris - who is said to be shy and needy to be liked - is ready for the level of exposure and hatred that is going to come his way when he gets the top job?

    One thing Boris definitely is not is shy, in fact he would be about the most unshy PM we have had for decades.


    Given he was Mayor of London and the Left hated him and led the Leave campaign and Remainers hated him it is not as if he is not used to it
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,228
    Congratulations to Mr and Mrs Smithson on their wedding anniversary today.

    Hope they're having a lovely time. :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    He might well do if Comres is anything to go by

    They were only out by 12 points in 2017, and what is 12 points among friends?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited July 2019
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    He might well do if Comres is anything to go by

    They were only out by 12 points in 2017, and what is 12 points among friends?
    In 2015 they were only 3% off the Tory total and did better than most pollsters.

    In 2017 they had the Tories on 44% so not far off either
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247
    The Saffers look to me to be maybe 15 runs shy of a good score there, given Old Trafford has quite a short boundary.

    But if they get two of the top four quickly, it will look a lot more competitive.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, such polling holds no weight at all given how poor polling has often been and the critical fact that what happens regarding the EU will radically alter the polling landscape.

    If we do not Leave the EU by October 31st then the Brexit Party will be largest party whether Boris or Hunt is Tory leader, I don't doubt that.

    As YouGov showed, if Brexit has not happened by October and Britain remains a member of the EU while negotiations continue under Boris it would be Brexit Party 23%, LDs 33%, Labour 20%, Tories 20%.

    Under Hunt it would be Brexit Party 27%, Tories 21%, LDs 20%, Labour 20%.


    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/28/jeremy-hunt-now-leads-boris-johnson-publics-prefer
    Sorry Brexit Party 23%, LDs 22% if still in the EU under Boris in October
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    alex. said:

    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.

    If Boris wins a majority he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement even he voted for at MV3, so problem solved
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    @HYUFD we have no idea what a GE campaign would be like so relying on them to predict the result of a GE is pointless.

    All they give us is a rough idea of which way the wind is blowing at a moment in time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I do wonder whether Boris - who is said to be shy and needy to be liked - is ready for the level of exposure and hatred that is going to come his way when he gets the top job?

    One thing Boris definitely is not is shy, in fact he would be about the most unshy PM we have had for decades.


    Given he was Mayor of London and the Left hated him and led the Leave campaign and Remainers hated him it is not as if he is not used to it
    It’s an observation made by several people who know him - Andrew Gilligan, Leo McKinstry - that his shtick is to a degree an act developed in his youth as a cover for nervousness and shyness.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    Seems at least one of the key Corbynites is already accepting they have lost the next GE this afternoon.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247
    RHUL has always had something of an unsavoury reputation among scholars. Very arrogant, but not very good, would summarise their attitude towards it.

    Dr Peters (as he then was) is hardly doing anything to dispel it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,873
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I do wonder whether Boris - who is said to be shy and needy to be liked - is ready for the level of exposure and hatred that is going to come his way when he gets the top job?

    One thing Boris definitely is not is shy, in fact he would be about the most unshy PM we have had for decades.


    Given he was Mayor of London and the Left hated him and led the Leave campaign and Remainers hated him it is not as if he is not used to it
    It’s an observation made by several people who know him - Andrew Gilligan, Leo McKinstry - that his shtick is to a degree an act developed in his youth as a cover for nervousness and shyness.
    Watching Boris recently I think that is a very succinct comment
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,143
    alex. said:

    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.

    Wasn't that Theresa May's plan?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited July 2019
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I do wonder whether Boris - who is said to be shy and needy to be liked - is ready for the level of exposure and hatred that is going to come his way when he gets the top job?

    One thing Boris definitely is not is shy, in fact he would be about the most unshy PM we have had for decades.


    Given he was Mayor of London and the Left hated him and led the Leave campaign and Remainers hated him it is not as if he is not used to it
    It’s an observation made by several people who know him - Andrew Gilligan, Leo McKinstry - that his shtick is to a degree an act developed in his youth as a cover for nervousness and shyness.
    As is often the case with many charismatic people, that does not make him shy now.


    Brown and May and Heath were shy, Boris is not
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I do wonder whether Boris - who is said to be shy and needy to be liked - is ready for the level of exposure and hatred that is going to come his way when he gets the top job?

    One thing Boris definitely is not is shy, in fact he would be about the most unshy PM we have had for decades.


    Given he was Mayor of London and the Left hated him and led the Leave campaign and Remainers hated him it is not as if he is not used to it
    It’s an observation made by several people who know him - Andrew Gilligan, Leo McKinstry - that his shtick is to a degree an act developed in his youth as a cover for nervousness and shyness.
    He didn't give the impression of competence and steadiness when Foreign Sec.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.

    If Boris wins a majority he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement even he voted for at MV3, so problem solved
    What, THE withdrawal agreement? The one everyone apparently hates? And he's going to include passing the current withdrawal agreement in his election manifesto? And get every prospective Tory MP to sign up to voting for it?

    And if they don't how large a majority are you predicting to enable him to ignore any awkward squad he has to deal with?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    tlg86 said:

    alex. said:

    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.

    Wasn't that Theresa May's plan?
    In 2017 Labour also promised to deliver Brexit while also winning Remainers who wanted to stop Brexit.

    Now Labour has lost Leavers to the Brexit Party and Remainers to the LDs and Greens
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the YouGov Tory members' poll are out now.

    As well as the headline figures of Boris 74% and Hunt 26% they also have some additional questions which shows Tory members more committed to Brexit than ever but easing off in support for more austerity.

    53% of Tory members say the next PM should resign if Britain has not left the EU by 31st October with just 34% opposed.

    67% back proroguing Parliament to enforce No Deal if necessary with just 27% opposed.



    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    Thanks for that. Cake and eaty seems a bit thin!
    Proroging parliament to force No Deal may be a short term desire of the membership. They may change their mind when the next PM who is less to their liking decides to do it...
    Judging by my telephone call from Team Boris last night and my confirmation I reject no deal 100% I was told that Boris only supports no deal as a negotiating strategy and will agree a deal. Furthermore when I expressed concern that the Union would be under threat I was told that the Union of Scotland, Wales and Ireland are paramount and would be strengthened

    If these comments are true then Hyufd and others are being played to get Boris into office

    One thing is near certain we will find out in the coming weeks
    As I have said before Boris wants a FTA for GB ultimately not No Deal and if he wins a majority that is what he would move to
    We are a long way frty government
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20
    Where is the poll showing one third support
    Boris can win a Tory majority with just a third of the vote under FPTP now we have 4 way politics with the Tories, Labour, LDs and Brexit Party all in the 15 to 25% range if he squeezes the Brexit Party back a bit.
    Where i am sceptical with this, is it allowing for remain party’s exchanging votes based on who in that constituency is best placed to beat their nemesis and his hard or no deal brexit, or is it uniform swing with lab, libdems and green all polling well in same place without squeezing?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    alex. said:

    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.

    Wasn't that Theresa May's plan?
    In 2017 Labour also promised to deliver Brexit while also winning Remainers who wanted to stop Brexit.

    Now Labour has lost Leavers to the Brexit Party and Remainers to the LDs and Greens
    I honestly don't think Boris has a plan. He will concentrate on winning this selection race and then sit down with his advisors and decide a strategy (probably conveniently forgetting all the various disparate promises he has made).

    My guess he will go full throttle, faux Churchill mode in first few days, banging on about No Deal, preparing the country, 'We are Off!', this is like war-time folks, we can do it etc etc. Tabloids will wet themselves.

    Meanwhile, furious back channels will be underway to EU to try and find a way out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited July 2019
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.

    If Boris wins a majority he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement even he voted for at MV3, so problem solved
    What, THE withdrawal agreement? The one everyone apparently hates? And he's going to include passing the current withdrawal agreement in his election manifesto? And get every prospective Tory MP to sign up to voting for it?

    And if they don't how large a majority are you predicting to enable him to ignore any awkward squad he has to deal with?
    286 MPs voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, including Boris.

    So if Boris gets another 35 to 45 Tory MPs at a general election in September for example he would then have the numbers to pass the Withdrawal Agreement (minus the temporary CU for GB May asked to be added).

    That of course excludes the odd Labour MP like Lisa Nandy who have said they would now vote for the Withdrawal Agreement
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    Zephyr said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the YouGov Tory members' poll are out now.

    d.

    67% back proroguing Parliament to enforce No Deal if necessary with just 27% opposed.



    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    Thanks for that. Cake and eaty seems a bit thin!
    Proroging parliament to force No Deal may be a short term desire of the membership. They may change their mind when the next PM who is less to their liking decides to do it...
    Judging by my telephone call from Team Boris last night and my confirmation I reject no deal 100% I was told that Boris only supports no deal as a negotiating strategy and will agree a deal. Furthermore when I expressed concern that the Union would be under threat I was told that the Union of Scotland, Wales and Ireland are paramount and would be strengthened

    If these comments are true then Hyufd and others are being played to get Boris into office

    One thing is near certain we will find out in the coming weeks
    As I have said before Boris wants a FTA for GB ultimately not No Deal and if he wins a majority that is what he would move to
    We are a long way frty government
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20
    Where is the poll showing one third support
    Boris can win a Tory majority with just a third of the vote under FPTP now we have 4 way politics with the Tories, Labour, LDs and Brexit Party all in the 15 to 25% range if he squeezes the Brexit Party back a bit.
    Where i am sceptical with this, is it allowing for remain party’s exchanging votes based on who in that constituency is best placed to beat their nemesis and his hard or no deal brexit, or is it uniform swing with lab, libdems and green all polling well in same place without squeezing?
    Although I think HY overstates the probability both of having the early election and the Tory prospects in it (particularly as while Boris is stressing the deal Farage will be stressing no deal), under our capricious lottery of a voting system the risk is clearly there. That’s what is driving the Remain parties (ex Labour) to look at co-operating. Labour might become an irrelevance in such an election as leave and remain fight it out.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,873

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    alex. said:

    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.

    Wasn't that Theresa May's plan?
    In 2017 Labour also promised to deliver Brexit while also winning Remainers who wanted to stop Brexit.

    Now Labour has lost Leavers to the Brexit Party and Remainers to the LDs and Greens
    I honestly don't think Boris has a plan. He will concentrate on winning this selection race and then sit down with his advisors and decide a strategy (probably conveniently forgetting all the various disparate promises he has made).

    My guess he will go full throttle, faux Churchill mode in first few days, banging on about No Deal, preparing the country, 'We are Off!', this is like war-time folks, we can do it etc etc. Tabloids will wet themselves.

    Meanwhile, furious back channels will be underway to EU to try and find a way out.
    Very much my thoughts but there is another issue not much spoken here

    Boris will not want to be the PM who falls in a few months and be will be spinning many plates to appeal to a wider electorate with eye catching policies on police, education, the Union and climate change

    I doubt he will succeed but if he were to resolve brexit and move onto an investment and social agenda, then I and many others will have been proven wrong
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Zephyr said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the YouGov Tory members' poll are out now.

    As well as the headline figures of Boris 74% and Hunt 26% they also have some additional questions which shows Tory members more committed to Brexit than ever but easing off in support for more austerity.

    53% of Tory members say the next PM should resign if Britain has not left the EU by 31st October with just 34% opposed.

    67% back proroguing Parliament to enforce No Deal if necessary with just 27% opposed.



    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    Thanks for that. Cake and eaty seems a bit thin!
    Proroging parliament to force No Deal may be a short term desire of the membership. They may change their mind when the next PM who is less to their liking decides to do it...
    Judging by my telephone call from Team Boris last night and my confirmation I reject no deal 100% I was told that Boris only supports no deal as a negotiating strategy and will agree a deal. Furthermore when I expressed concern that the Union would be under threat I was told that the Union of Scotland, Wales and Ireland are paramount and would be strengthened

    If these comments are true then Hyufd and others are being played to get Boris into office

    One thing is near certain we will find out in the coming weeks
    As I have said before Boris wants a FTA for GB ultimately not No Deal and if he wins a majority that is what he would move to
    We are a long way frty government
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20
    Where is the poll showing one third support
    Boris can win a Tory majority with just a third of the vote under FPTP now we have 4 way politics with the Tories, Labour, LDs and Brexit Party all in the 15 to 25% range if he squeezes the Brexit Party back a bit.
    Where i am sceptical with this, is it allowing for remain party’s exchanging votes based on who in that constituency is best placed to beat their nemesis and his hard or no deal brexit, or is it uniform swing with lab, libdems and green all polling well in same place without squeezing?
    LDs will not tactically vote Labour now to the extent they did in 2017 in Labour v Tory marginal seats and certainly not while Corbyn remains Labour leader
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    alex. said:

    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.

    Wasn't that Theresa May's plan?
    In 2017 Labour also promised to deliver Brexit while also winning Remainers who wanted to stop Brexit.

    Now Labour has lost Leavers to the Brexit Party and Remainers to the LDs and Greens
    I honestly don't think Boris has a plan. He will concentrate on winning this selection race and then sit down with his advisors and decide a strategy (probably conveniently forgetting all the various disparate promises he has made).

    My guess he will go full throttle, faux Churchill mode in first few days, banging on about No Deal, preparing the country, 'We are Off!', this is like war-time folks, we can do it etc etc. Tabloids will wet themselves.

    Meanwhile, furious back channels will be underway to EU to try and find a way out.
    Will EU give Boris better deal than they gave Tess. After what they done to her. They wouldn’t even be fair to themselves and their own negotiation if they done that.

    The EU can win and screw UK from no deal brexit. Interesting your war metaphor, because that is exactly what it will be. The First World War we remember as trench warfare, but the first month was fluid with much up for grabs. Some could say exciting or too exciting perhaps. But this is exactly what the first few months of no deal brexit will be. UK and EU will have massive decisions to gain upper hand in those first few months, the wrong decisions disastrous for the trench warfare to follow.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    alex. said:

    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.

    Wasn't that Theresa May's plan?
    In 2017 Labour also promised to deliver Brexit while also winning Remainers who wanted to stop Brexit.

    Now Labour has lost Leavers to the Brexit Party and Remainers to the LDs and Greens
    I honestly don't think Boris has a plan. He will concentrate on winning this selection race and then sit down with his advisors and decide a strategy (probably conveniently forgetting all the various disparate promises he has made).

    My guess he will go full throttle, faux Churchill mode in first few days, banging on about No Deal, preparing the country, 'We are Off!', this is like war-time folks, we can do it etc etc. Tabloids will wet themselves.

    Meanwhile, furious back channels will be underway to EU to try and find a way out.
    Very much my thoughts but there is another issue not much spoken here

    Boris will not want to be the PM who falls in a few months and be will be spinning many plates to appeal to a wider electorate with eye catching policies on police, education, the Union and climate change

    I doubt he will succeed but if he were to resolve brexit and move onto an investment and social agenda, then I and many others will have been proven wrong
    He could have the best 'agenda' in the world, there's still precious little evidence that he actually has the personal attributes required of a potential Prime Minister.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,873
    edited July 2019
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    alex. said:

    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.

    Wasn't that Theresa May's plan?
    In 2017 Labour also promised to deliver Brexit while also winning Remainers who wanted to stop Brexit.

    Now Labour has lost Leavers to the Brexit Party and Remainers to the LDs and Greens
    I honestly don't think Boris has a plan. He will concentrate on winning this selection race and then sit down with his advisors and decide a strategy (probably conveniently forgetting all the various disparate promises he has made).

    My guess he will go full throttle, faux Churchill mode in first few days, banging on about No Deal, preparing the country, 'We are Off!', this is like war-time folks, we can do it etc etc. Tabloids will wet themselves.

    Meanwhile, furious back channels will be underway to EU to try and find a way out.
    Very much my thoughts but there is another issue not much spoken here

    Boris will not want to be the PM who falls in a few months and be will be spinning many plates to appeal to a wider electorate with eye catching policies on police, education, the Union and climate change

    I doubt he will succeed but if he were to resolve brexit and move onto an investment and social agenda, then I and many others will have been proven wrong
    He could have the best 'agenda' in the world, there's still precious little evidence that he actually has the personal attributes required of a potential Prime Minister.
    I do agree so we can only be surprised on the upside
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    alex. said:

    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.

    Wasn't that Theresa May's plan?
    In 2017 Labour also promised to deliver Brexit while also winning Remainers who wanted to stop Brexit.

    Now Labour has lost Leavers to the Brexit Party and Remainers to the LDs and Greens
    I honestly don't think Boris has a plan. He will concentrate on winning this selection race and then sit down with his advisors and decide a strategy (probably conveniently forgetting all the various disparate promises he has made).

    My guess he will go full throttle, faux Churchill mode in first few days, banging on about No Deal, preparing the country, 'We are Off!', this is like war-time folks, we can do it etc etc. Tabloids will wet themselves.

    Meanwhile, furious back channels will be underway to EU to try and find a way out.
    Very much my thoughts but there is another issue not much spoken here

    Boris will not want to be the PM who falls in a few months and be will be spinning many plates to appeal to a wider electorate with eye catching policies on police, education, the Union and climate change

    I doubt he will succeed but if he were to resolve brexit and move onto an investment and social agenda, then I and many others will have been proven wrong
    He could have the best 'agenda' in the world, there's still precious little evidence that he actually has the personal attributes required of a potential Prime Minister.
    I do agree so we can only be surprised on the upside
    I admire your optimism.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    James Forsyth has reported this morning that Matt Hancock is planning the first 100 days of a Boris PMship and that Geoffrey Cox is planning the negotiation strategy with Brussels and also how to handle Parliament.

    More cooperation with cabinet colleagues than May initiated in three years.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    alex. said:

    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.

    Wasn't that Theresa May's plan?
    In 2017 Labour also promised to deliver Brexit while also winning Remainers who wanted to stop Brexit.

    Now Labour has lost Leavers to the Brexit Party and Remainers to the LDs and Greens
    I honestly don't think Boris has a plan. He will concentrate on winning this selection race and then sit down with his advisors and decide a strategy (probably conveniently forgetting all the various disparate promises he has made).

    My guess he will go full throttle, faux Churchill mode in first few days, banging on about No Deal, preparing the country, 'We are Off!', this is like war-time folks, we can do it etc etc. Tabloids will wet themselves.

    Meanwhile, furious back channels will be underway to EU to try and find a way out.
    Very much my thoughts but there is another issue not much spoken here

    Boris will not want to be the PM who falls in a few months and be will be spinning many plates to appeal to a wider electorate with eye catching policies on police, education, the Union and climate change

    I doubt he will succeed but if he were to resolve brexit and move onto an investment and social agenda, then I and many others will have been proven wrong
    He could have the best 'agenda' in the world, there's still precious little evidence that he actually has the personal attributes required of a potential Prime Minister.
    I do agree so we can only be surprised on the upside
    To be fair, with odd exceptions on this board we've all been so negative about him that 'things can only get better'! Or of course, our collective fears could be realised.
    Surely, in practical terms, he'll have to sort out a Government and that will take him a week or so.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    HYUFD said:

    Zephyr said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the YouGov Tory members' poll are out now.

    As well as the headline figures of Boris 74% and Hunt 26% they also have some additional questions which shows Tory members more committed to Brexit than ever but easing off in support for more austerity.

    53% of Tory members say the next PM should resign if Britain has not left the EU by 31st October with just 34% opposed.

    67% back proroguing Parliament to enforce No Deal if necessary with just 27% opposed.



    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    Thanks for that. Cake and eaty seems a bit thin!
    Proroging parliament to force No Deal may be a short term desire of the membership. They may change their mind when the next PM who is less to their liking decides to do it...


    If these comments are true then Hyufd and others are being played to get Boris into office

    One thing is near certain we will find out in the coming weeks
    As I have said before Boris wants a FTA for GB ultimately not No Deal and if he wins a majority that is what he would move to
    We are a long way frty government
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20
    Where is the poll showing one third support
    Boris can win a Tory majority with just a third of the vote under FPTP now we have 4 way politics with the Tories, Labour, LDs and Brexit Party all in the 15 to 25% range if he squeezes the Brexit Party back a bit.
    Where i am sceptical with this, is it allowing for remain party’s exchanging votes based on who in that constituency is best placed to beat their nemesis and his hard or no deal brexit, or is it uniform swing with lab, libdems and green all polling well in same place without squeezing?
    LDs will not tactically vote Labour now to the extent they did in 2017 in Labour v Tory marginal seats and certainly not while Corbyn remains Labour leader
    Labour is more that just Corbyn you know. It’s a big wide tribe, with not just a ground game but reasonably sharp on digital campaigning too. They have sitting MPs the locals know and love as their remain MP. And your figures has Boris and BP mopping a lot of them up.

    Really? You convinced?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,873
    edited July 2019
    ydoethur said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    alex. said:

    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.

    Wasn't that Theresa May's plan?
    In 2017 Labour also promised to deliver Brexit while also winning Remainers who wanted to stop Brexit.

    Now Labour has lost Leavers to the Brexit Party and Remainers to the LDs and Greens
    I honestly don't think Boris has a plan. He will concentrate on winning this selection race and then sit down with his advisors and decide a strategy (probably conveniently forgetting all the various disparate promises he has made).

    My guess he will go full throttle, faux Churchill mode in first few days, banging on about No Deal, preparing the country, 'We are Off!', this is like war-time folks, we can do it etc etc. Tabloids will wet themselves.

    Meanwhile, furious back channels will be underway to EU to try and find a way out.
    Very much my thoughts but there is another issue not much spoken here

    Boris will not want to be the PM who falls in a few months and be will be spinning many plates to appeal to a wider electorate with eye catching policies on police, education, the Union and climate change

    I doubt he will succeed but if he were to resolve brexit and move onto an investment and social agenda, then I and many others will have been proven wrong
    He could have the best 'agenda' in the world, there's still precious little evidence that he actually has the personal attributes required of a potential Prime Minister.
    I do agree so we can only be surprised on the upside
    I admire your optimism.
    You can be an optimist or a pessimist so I choose optimism but am not holding my breath
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380
    Australia 1 down in the third over. 5-1
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    If there is another referendum, and there are very plausible pathways to one, I expect independence to win. Because no-one much will argue for the Union.

    I am as unionist as they come but the gig's up if the other lot don't want us. Boris et al are pretty clear the interests of Scotland (and Northern Ireland too) feature precisely nowhere on their radar. At least Theresa May cared.
    Even with No Deal a Yes vote for independence in Scotland is not guaranteed.

    An October 2018 poll had it No 52% and Yes 48%, and April 2019 poll had it No 48% Yes 52% and 20% and 13% Don't Know in both cases.



    http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-a-second-scottish-independence-referendum-in-the-event-of#table

    While 51% of Scottish Remainers now back Yes because of Brexit, 64% of Scottish Leavers still back No.


    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2019/07/could-brexit-yet-undermine-the-future-of-the-british-state/
    Independence is by no means guaranteed. A lot depends on what happens in England. Right now it doesn't look good for the Union. The one thing that is almost certain is that Brexit will fail on its own terms, with a likely resentful England and alienated Scotland.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,873
    HYUFD said:
    I thought all your 'precious, precious Union' pols would be tweeting support for the British Pride march in Glasgow? After all these lads are going to be your foot soldiers in Indy Ref II.

    https://twitter.com/somarcsaid/status/1147426810780688385
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247

    Australia 1 down in the third over. 5-1

    Wrong one though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247

    ydoethur said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    alex. said:

    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.

    Wasn't that Theresa May's plan?
    In 2017 Labour also promised to deliver Brexit while also winning Remainers who wanted to stop Brexit.

    Now Labour has lost Leavers to the Brexit Party and Remainers to the LDs and Greens
    I honestly don't think Boris has a plan. He will concentrate on winning this selection race and then sit down with his advisors and decide a strategy (probably conveniently forgetting all the various disparate promises he has made).

    My guess he will go full throttle, faux Churchill mode in first few days, banging on about No Deal, preparing the country, 'We are Off!', this is like war-time folks, we can do it etc etc. Tabloids will wet themselves.

    Meanwhile, furious back channels will be underway to EU to try and find a way out.
    Very much my thoughts but there is another issue not much spoken here

    Boris will not want to be the PM who falls in a few months and be will be spinning many plates to appeal to a wider electorate with eye catching policies on police, education, the Union and climate change

    I doubt he will succeed but if he were to resolve brexit and move onto an investment and social agenda, then I and many others will have been proven wrong
    He could have the best 'agenda' in the world, there's still precious little evidence that he actually has the personal attributes required of a potential Prime Minister.
    I do agree so we can only be surprised on the upside
    I admire your optimism.
    You can be an optimist or a pessimist so I choose optimism but am not holding my breath
    What is the difference between a Soviet optimist and a Soviet pessimist?

    A Soviet pessimist says, 'things are so awful right now they can't possibly get any worse.'

    An optimist replies, 'they will, they really will.'
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893

    HYUFD said:
    I thought all your 'precious, precious Union' pols would be tweeting support for the British Pride march in Glasgow? After all these lads are going to be your foot soldiers in Indy Ref II.

    https://twitter.com/somarcsaid/status/1147426810780688385
    Might be getting my months mixed up, but wasn't Pride month in June?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    James Forsyth has reported this morning that Matt Hancock is planning the first 100 days of a Boris PMship and that Geoffrey Cox is planning the negotiation strategy with Brussels and also how to handle Parliament.

    More cooperation with cabinet colleagues than May initiated in three years.

    Does the plan include exiting the EU without a deal on day 97?

    One would have thought that Geoffrey Cox would keep his head down. Permanently. (Wasn't he the person that May sent to try to 'renegotiate' away the backstop in February?)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380
    England 1 Sweden 2. F/t.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247
    Oooh.

    Usman Khawaja retired hurt.

    So they have them two down. If they can just get one of the sandboys...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    SNIP

    The yawn is erses like you, thick southerners who think they are still in the empire days. We do not need some sniveling creeps from Westminster telling us what we can and cannot do.
    Then become PM and sort it (and us) out. Nichola Sturgeon is one of the UK's most talented politicians. Why isn't she UK PM? No reason except then limitations she puts on herself.
    Now you really are talking mince, the SNP are treated badly at Westminster, Scotland is treated with contempt by Westminster. We have just witnessed two absolute balloons, one of which will be PM, state live on media that they will ignore Scotland's wishes and cancel democracy by not allowing the democratically elected Government enact their manifesto promise.
    A pox on your union.
    I don't agree. I think that the perception comes from inside. Nichola herself has said she has to be twice as good because she's Scottish. Alec Salmond has said Scotland is a nation of drunks. These are internal beliefs from people with deep issues about their own country.
    Yep, we Scots really need to take a leaf out of the English book of entitlement, exceptionalism and self regard, just look at where it's got them today. If we work very hard we too could be in that position.
    If that would mean that some Scots in particular would start feeling exceptional, hold themselves in high regard, and feel entitled to life giving them great things, then yes, that would be progress indeed.

    The more I live here the more I realise that the independence movement is almost wholly built on people's low opinion of their own nationality. I hear things like 'English people made me feel like crap when I was at uni', 'I feel like a foreigner when I visit London', 'When a Scottish person wins a sporting event they're called British; when they lose they're called Scottish'. The thing all these statements have in common is that all of them are internal - those feelings have not been produced by the effect of external English malice, and indeed that would be almost impossible to do.


    You don't half talk bollox
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256

    HYUFD said:
    I thought all your 'precious, precious Union' pols would be tweeting support for the British Pride march in Glasgow? After all these lads are going to be your foot soldiers in Indy Ref II.

    https://twitter.com/somarcsaid/status/1147426810780688385
    Unionists day out
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,143

    England 1 Sweden 2. F/t.

    Come on @malcolmg - you know what you want to say...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    alex. said:

    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.

    Wasn't that Theresa May's plan?
    In 2017 Labour also promised to deliver Brexit while also winning Remainers who wanted to stop Brexit.

    Now Labour has lost Leavers to the Brexit Party and Remainers to the LDs and Greens
    I honestly don't think Boris has a plan. He will concentrate on winning this selection race and then sit down with his advisors and decide a strategy (probably conveniently forgetting all the various disparate promises he has made).

    My guess he will go full throttle, faux Churchill mode in first few days, banging on about No Deal, preparing the country, 'We are Off!', this is like war-time folks, we can do it etc etc. Tabloids will wet themselves.

    Meanwhile, furious back channels will be underway to EU to try and find a way out.
    Very much my thoughts but there is another issue not much spoken here

    Boris will not want to be the PM who falls in a few months and be will be spinning many plates to appeal to a wider electorate with eye catching policies on police, education, the Union and climate change

    I doubt he will succeed but if he were to resolve brexit and move onto an investment and social agenda, then I and many others will have been proven wrong
    He could have the best 'agenda' in the world, there's still precious little evidence that he actually has the personal attributes required of a potential Prime Minister.
    I do agree so we can only be surprised on the upside
    Travel in hope!

    I am expecting "Battling Boris Bashes Brussels" on day one though.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    alex. said:

    Perhaps the cunning plan (let's put the obvious flaws to one side for a moment!) is for Johnson to get a General Election majority on a firm commitment to leave on 31st October, and then... not leave but use the 5 years he has to produce a negotiated departure... As the BXP can stamp their feet as much as they like.

    Wasn't that Theresa May's plan?

    Now Greens
    I honestly don't think Boris has a plan. He will concentrate on winning this selection race and then sit down with his advisors and decide a strategy (probably conveniently forgetting all the various disparate promises he has made).

    My guess he will go full throttle, faux Churchill mode in first few days, banging on about No Deal, preparing the country, 'We are Off!', this is like war-time folks, we can do it etc etc. Tabloids will wet themselves.

    Meanwhile, furious back channels will be underway to EU to try and find a way out.
    Very much my thoughts but there is another issue not much spoken here

    Boris will not want to be the PM who falls in a few months and be will be spinning many plates to appeal to a wider electorate with eye catching policies on police, education, the Union and climate change

    I doubt he will succeed but if he were to resolve brexit and move onto an investment and social agenda, then I and many others will have been proven wrong
    He could have the best 'agenda' in the world, there's still precious little evidence that he actually has the personal attributes required of a potential Prime Minister.
    I do agree so we can only be surprised on the upside
    Travel in hope!

    I am expecting "Battling Boris Bashes Brussels" on day one though.
    Yes. And it has to be because not being in EU doesn’t mean two passive adversaries, it means we are in competition with EU now. Fish wars. Farm wars. Car wars. Robotics and genetics wars.

    What did the 80s teach us about competition? Serves customer, at expense of what? We will be in Wage, profit margin, contract and condition squeezing competition with not just EU, but all countries we now have trade deals with we burn on EU exit, in order to keep and attract jobs and business - playing into the hands of the globalisation and lost control much of leave vote actually thought they were waving their fists against.

    After the two world wars they said never Again. We will be smarter now. However, Humans only learn its hot by burning themselves, Again. And again.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the YouGov Tory members' poll are out now.

    As well as the headline figures of Boris 74% and Hunt 26% they also have some additional questions which shows Tory members more committed to Brexit than ever but easing off in support for more austerity.

    53% of Tory members say the next PM should resign if Britain has not left the EU by 31st October with just 34% opposed.

    67% back proroguing Parliament to enforce No Deal if necessary with just 27% opposed.

    45% thing Boris could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and 90% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal. Only 22% think Hunt could renegotiate a better Deal with the EU and only 27% think he would be prepared to Leave the EU with No Deal.

    52% back the government increasing public spending in the event of No Deal, even if it means more public borrowing and debt to support the economy.

    Only 41% of Tory members think the government should maintain limits on public spending after Brexit in order to keep public borrowing and debt under control.


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mazvho8f5m/TimesResults_190705_ConMembers_w1.pdf

    Thanks for that. Cake and eat it rather, isn't it. I'm concerned too by the two-thirds of Tory members who would be prepared to close down Parliament if it was necessary to do that to Leave, and to do so with No Deal.
    The commitment to democracy seems a bit thin!
    Proroging parliament to force No Deal may be a short term desire of the membership. They may change their mind when the next PM who is less to their liking decides to do it...
    Judging by my telephone call from Team Boris last night and my confirmation I reject no deal 100% I was told that Boris only supports no deal as a negotiating strategy and will agree a deal. Furthermore when I expressed concern that the Union would be under threat I was told that the Union of Scotland, Wales and Ireland are paramount and would be strengthened

    If these comments are true then Hyufd and others are being played to get Boris into office

    One thing is near certain we will find out in the coming weeks
    As I have said before Boris wants a FTA for GB ultimately not No Deal and if he wins a majority that is what he would move to
    We are a long way from a majority.

    You like quoting polls, can you show a poll over the last few weeks that shows a conservative majority government
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20
    Is this Com Res poll for real? If so the games up. Why hasn't more been made of it?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256
    edited July 2019
    tlg86 said:

    England 1 Sweden 2. F/t.

    Come on @malcolmg - you know what you want to say...
    LOL, what a great end to a great day : >:) ) the tabby cats are neutered
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2019
    Good evening. Interesting trying to watch car racing, cycling, football, tennis, cricket and horse racing all at the same time today.

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,143
    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    England 1 Sweden 2. F/t.

    Come on @malcolmg - you know what you want to say...
    LOL, what a great end to a great day : >:) ) the tabby cats are neutered
    I'm guessing The Sun will be kinder to them and brother Phil than they were to Taylor and his players 27 years ago...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/swedes-2-turnips-1.jpg
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256
    tlg86 said:

    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    England 1 Sweden 2. F/t.

    Come on @malcolmg - you know what you want to say...
    LOL, what a great end to a great day : >:) ) the tabby cats are neutered
    I'm guessing The Sun will be kinder to them and brother Phil than they were to Taylor and his players 27 years ago...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/swedes-2-turnips-1.jpg
    That was a classic for sure
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "‘It Is Our Fault’: El Salvador’s President Takes Blame for Migrant Deaths in Rio Grande"

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/01/world/americas/nayib-bukele-migrant-deaths.html
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256
    "We're moving in the right direction", says the BBC pundit of England. They finished 4th, having finished 3rd in the last World Cup.
    The BBC really are dire nowadays.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    England 1 Sweden 2. F/t.

    Come on @malcolmg - you know what you want to say...
    LOL, what a great end to a great day : >:) ) the tabby cats are neutered
    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    England 1 Sweden 2. F/t.

    Come on @malcolmg - you know what you want to say...
    LOL, what a great end to a great day : >:) ) the tabby cats are neutered
    To be honest that’s very sad I know of no English, welsh or Irish people who wouldn’t support the last home nation team in a competition. It’s petty minded and down right stupid
This discussion has been closed.