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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden pushed into third place in Iowa – the first state to dec

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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is she really only 31?

    She looks... worn
    It's been a tough couple of weeks. Those settees don't bleach their own wine off you know.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    Scott_P said:

    This would be hilarious, when Liz or The Saj have to call them...

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1146513963473129478

    Last week he was about to become an MP again.
    He can easily cope with both...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,175

    Surely Watson will find support now to make the move against the allotment holder? Even the diehards must know the game is up.

    No chance. They’ll double down and focus on deselections. Corbyn will never be removed. Having him as leader is far more important to most Labour members than defeating the English nationalist hard right.

    The cure will be an election wipe out I suppose.
    That's what the Labour 'moderates' thought last time. Then they ended up kowtowing to the Jezziah and singing 'Oh Jeremy'.

    Second time's the charm?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    _Anazina_ said:

    Byronic said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean is spot on.

    Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.

    I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.

    The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.

    Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
    Byronic, apologies. Force of habit! It’s the cadence of your prose, recalls a former PBer. He and I were on opposite sides of the traditional political divide but he was often good value.
    No need to apologise; the deal was that he would stop denying it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    edited July 2019

    I personally think a reasonable percentage of people will refuse to say they support Labour but would still vote for them... 🤷‍♂️

    The Green 9% figure probably wouldn't hold up in a GE. I expect though in a tight Lab-Con marginal a few Brexit party respondents might go and back Boris.
    Labour polling 4th is appalling midterm for them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    Byronic said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Byronic said:
    Electoral Calculus is horrible for these numbers:

    BXP 207
    CON 160
    LAB 150
    LD 71

    BXP / CON with 100+ majority for, one imagines, a very limited program.

    Such a result would surely also be a killer blow for FPTP. But I somehow think that at hese numbers all guesses are mug's games.
    I think what Electoral Calculus does go to show, varying wildly between different polls just a few percent apart, is that an election fought on a backdrop of current numbers would be wildly unpredictable, as we are close to so many pivot points.

    I still think it likeliest that LDs score in the 50ish MP range, and Brexit in the couple of dozen, and that Labour wlli benefit from FPTP more than the Tories at these levels, but that could just be a natural instinct to go against predicting the extremer outcomes. Who knows?
    In a normal era, a poll like this would end the LOTO's career tomorrow.

    When are Labour members and union activists going to wake up? Jezza is leading you to total defeat.
    Because they think they will make up 20 points in a GE campaign like last time. That’s what they are clinging onto.
    Desperate. Those new LibDems voters clearly aren't coming back.

    Jezza will have to have 'People's Vote' tattooed across his forehead in block capitals to turn this around.
    I've heard rumours that the Corbyn-is-unwell anecdotes are not entirely unsubstantiated. So there might be a vacancy soon-ish.

    It will be a fascinating struggle. The Tories should be scared. All Labour needs is a decent enough leader with a believable Remainer background and they will sweep to a large polling lead.

    Of course Labour might persist with their insanity, and then who knows.
    Yep. :+1: It is incredible. Labour are one good leadership change from wiping out a split Right.

    But the left have to hold on to their messiah. Bonkers.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 31,034
    Byronic said:

    notme2 said:

    Byronic said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
    There isn't. Regression to the mean. For the same reason, there are no Bachs composing fabulous music.

    The Thatchers managed it in a single generation.
    Most families manage it in a single generation. That's genetics, geniuses are rare, most talents are not heritable.
    We had 3 fantastic generations, 3 solid ones, 1 complete fucking disaster, 1 solid one and a further 2 fantastic ones. The 11th round has only just started.

    (And by complete fucking disaster I mean on a scale unimaginable to most normal people)
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    IanB2 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Byronic said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean is spot on.

    Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.

    I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.

    The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.

    Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
    Byronic, apologies. Force of habit! It’s the cadence of your prose, recalls a former PBer. He and I were on opposite sides of the traditional political divide but he was often good value.
    No need to apologise; the deal was that he would stop denying it.
    If I were him, of course I would deny it, as I would clearly have some reason to do so.

    Given that I am not him, of course I will not deny it, because I AM NOT HIM.

    How thick do you have to be, not to see that obviousness? Clearly, as thick as YOU. Get a life. A different life.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 31,034
    Byronic said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean is spot on.

    Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.

    I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.

    The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.

    Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
    FWIW I think it’s rather invalidating and unpleasant. Once or twice might have been funny but now it’s the implication that you have no unique voice or intrinsic merit

    He should stop
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeL said:

    I don't understand the Electoral Calculus seat projection on tonight's YouGov.

    Is it really likely that the BRX vote will be more efficiently distributed than the Con vote? Surely all history of 3rd parties tells us this isn't the case.

    In contrast Flavible seat projection for tonight's YouGov is:

    Con 202, BRX 160, Lab 119, LD 96 - which looks far more realistic.

    I don't know how they can make any projections for the Brexit Party since it didn't stand at the last election.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Byronic said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean is spot on.

    Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.

    I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.

    The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.

    Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
    Byronic, apologies. Force of habit! It’s the cadence of your prose, recalls a former PBer. He and I were on opposite sides of the traditional political divide but he was often good value.
    No need to apologise; the deal was that he would stop denying it.
    If I were him, of course I would deny it, as I would clearly have some reason to do so.

    Given that I am not him, of course I will not deny it, because I AM NOT HIM.

    How thick do you have to be, not to see that obviousness? Clearly, as thick as YOU. Get a life. A different life.
    But you are, and we all know you are.

    Next topic.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,088
    nico67 said:


    Yes but Brit ex pats are special . EU nationals aren’t the same when they come to the UK. This was highlighted by interviews with some ex pats in Spain who voted Leave , they said there were too many immigrants in the UK.

    When it was pointed out to them they’re immigrants in Spain , they replied we’re ex pats and the Spanish need our money !

    Oh Please. Do not use an example of a few dickheads to assume that we are all like that. It may well be that the largest single group of British citizens living in an EU country are UK pensioners in Spain but it is certainly not most of the British citizens living in an EU country.

    On the whole we are either hard working people, who take an interest in our locality, the country in which we live and in the UK. Include in this group those who have now retired having worked in both the UK and other EU countries. I, and I am sure there are tens of thousand UK citizens like me, am broken hearted to see how destructive the politics in the UK has become, and am frankly relieved that I made the choice to move to another country before the Brex-shit hit the fan.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 31,034
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
    I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
    I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.

    Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.

    One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
    I was in the US 10 days ago and virtually everyone asked me about his row with Carrie.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,004
    Trying to work out why the Borisgraph might misrepresent hunts so called pledge... Hard to fathom...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 14,304
    edited July 2019
    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    I don't understand the Electoral Calculus seat projection on tonight's YouGov.

    Is it really likely that the BRX vote will be more efficiently distributed than the Con vote? Surely all history of 3rd parties tells us this isn't the case.

    In contrast Flavible seat projection for tonight's YouGov is:

    Con 202, BRX 160, Lab 119, LD 96 - which looks far more realistic.

    I don't know how they can make any projections for the Brexit Party since it didn't stand at the last election.
    I recall someone saying that they use the UKIP figure.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:
    It's a misunderstanding, based on his proposed cabinet.

    Hunt and Fox...
    It would have been a great answer

    Q. Do you intend to legalise fox hunting?

    A. Liam is a great friend of mine. Next question please

    Q. But...

    A. Sorry, 1 question only...
    :lol:

    The kind of humour Hague used to deploy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    edited July 2019
    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Byronic said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean is spot on.

    Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.

    I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.

    The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.

    Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
    Byronic, apologies. Force of habit! It’s the cadence of your prose, recalls a former PBer. He and I were on opposite sides of the traditional political divide but he was often good value.
    No need to apologise; the deal was that he would stop denying it.
    If I were him, of course I would deny it, as I would clearly have some reason to do so.

    Given that I am not him, of course I will not deny it, because I AM NOT HIM.

    How thick do you have to be, not to see that obviousness? Clearly, as thick as YOU. Get a life. A different life.
    Take your word for it but to misquote that old margarine ad 'I can't believe it's not SeanT!'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,175
    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Byronic said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean is spot on.

    Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.

    I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.

    The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.

    Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
    Byronic, apologies. Force of habit! It’s the cadence of your prose, recalls a former PBer. He and I were on opposite sides of the traditional political divide but he was often good value.
    No need to apologise; the deal was that he would stop denying it.
    If I were him, of course I would deny it, as I would clearly have some reason to do so.

    Given that I am not him, of course I will not deny it, because I AM NOT HIM.

    How thick do you have to be, not to see that obviousness? Clearly, as thick as YOU. Get a life. A different life.
    But you are, and we all know you are.

    Next topic.
    Oh gods, please just drop it, who the hell even cares anymore?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Byronic said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean is spot on.

    Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.

    I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.

    The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.

    Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
    Byronic, apologies. Force of habit! It’s the cadence of your prose, recalls a former PBer. He and I were on opposite sides of the traditional political divide but he was often good value.
    No need to apologise; the deal was that he would stop denying it.
    If I were him, of course I would deny it, as I would clearly have some reason to do so.

    Given that I am not him, of course I will not deny it, because I AM NOT HIM.

    How thick do you have to be, not to see that obviousness? Clearly, as thick as YOU. Get a life. A different life.
    But you are, and we all know you are.

    Next topic.
    And you're a bit creepy, and weirdly obsessed. And we can all see that.

    Next topic. Agreed.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Charles said:

    Byronic said:

    notme2 said:

    Byronic said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
    There isn't. Regression to the mean. For the same reason, there are no Bachs composing fabulous music.

    The Thatchers managed it in a single generation.
    Most families manage it in a single generation. That's genetics, geniuses are rare, most talents are not heritable.
    We had 3 fantastic generations, 3 solid ones, 1 complete fucking disaster, 1 solid one and a further 2 fantastic ones. The 11th round has only just started.

    (And by complete fucking disaster I mean on a scale unimaginable to most normal people)
    You descend from the line of Stuarts and you take the name of the disastrous one?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641
    Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.

    No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.

    Very very dumb. If true.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    edited July 2019
    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    I don't understand the Electoral Calculus seat projection on tonight's YouGov.

    Is it really likely that the BRX vote will be more efficiently distributed than the Con vote? Surely all history of 3rd parties tells us this isn't the case.

    In contrast Flavible seat projection for tonight's YouGov is:

    Con 202, BRX 160, Lab 119, LD 96 - which looks far more realistic.

    I don't know how they can make any projections for the Brexit Party since it didn't stand at the last election.
    You might be able to model support by extrapolating from the european election result (And making sure the total numbers sum through to 23%).
    Also UKIP 2015++ ?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,301

    Surely Watson will find support now to make the move against the allotment holder? Even the diehards must know the game is up.

    No chance. They’ll double down and focus on deselections. Corbyn will never be removed. Having him as leader is far more important to most Labour members than defeating the English nationalist hard right.

    The cure will be an election wipe out I suppose.

    It will be too late, I think. I can see Labour going the same way as the SPD in Germany and the PS in France. I suspect the centre-left will turn progressively Green and Orange.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    _Anazina_ said:

    Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?

    That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
    I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
    I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.

    Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.

    One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
    I was in the US 10 days ago and virtually everyone asked me about his row with Carrie.
    Really? Honestly? That surprises me. Americans know and care that Boris had a domestic?!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,175
    notme2 said:

    Charles said:

    Byronic said:

    notme2 said:

    Byronic said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
    There isn't. Regression to the mean. For the same reason, there are no Bachs composing fabulous music.

    The Thatchers managed it in a single generation.
    Most families manage it in a single generation. That's genetics, geniuses are rare, most talents are not heritable.
    We had 3 fantastic generations, 3 solid ones, 1 complete fucking disaster, 1 solid one and a further 2 fantastic ones. The 11th round has only just started.

    (And by complete fucking disaster I mean on a scale unimaginable to most normal people)
    You descend from the line of Stuarts and you take the name of the disastrous one?
    Well he is the only one who is a Saint. Of a sort.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1146536299047899144

    I preferred James O'Brien's anti-Blair chuntering fucknuts comment but it has been deleted.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    I don't understand the Electoral Calculus seat projection on tonight's YouGov.

    Is it really likely that the BRX vote will be more efficiently distributed than the Con vote? Surely all history of 3rd parties tells us this isn't the case.

    In contrast Flavible seat projection for tonight's YouGov is:

    Con 202, BRX 160, Lab 119, LD 96 - which looks far more realistic.

    I don't know how they can make any projections for the Brexit Party since it didn't stand at the last election.
    You might be able to model support by extrapolating from the european election result (And making sure the total numbers sum through to 23%).
    Also UKIP 2015 ?
    You could try but it wouldn't be very reliable IMO.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,004
    TOPPING said:

    Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.

    No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.

    Very very dumb. If true.

    Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Charles said:

    Byronic said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean is spot on.

    Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.

    I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.

    The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.

    Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
    FWIW I think it’s rather invalidating and unpleasant. Once or twice might have been funny but now it’s the implication that you have no unique voice or intrinsic merit

    He should stop
    Was this aimed at me?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,088
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
    I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
    I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.

    Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.

    One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
    Mr Bean is even more famous internationally. It does not mean that he would be a good UKPM.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Surely Watson will find support now to make the move against the allotment holder? Even the diehards must know the game is up.

    No chance. They’ll double down and focus on deselections. Corbyn will never be removed. Having him as leader is far more important to most Labour members than defeating the English nationalist hard right.

    The cure will be an election wipe out I suppose.

    It will be too late, I think. I can see Labour going the same way as the SPD in Germany and the PS in France. I suspect the centre-left will turn progressively Green and Orange.

    Yes, exactly. British politics is becoming more European, even as we exit the EU. A spicy irony.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
    I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
    I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.

    Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.

    One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
    I was in the US 10 days ago and virtually everyone asked me about his row with Carrie.
    He is like a mini Trump for Americans I suppose with a bit more humour and vocabulary
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Byronic said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean is spot on.

    Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.

    I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.

    The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.

    Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
    Byronic, apologies. Force of habit! It’s the cadence of your prose, recalls a former PBer. He and I were on opposite sides of the traditional political divide but he was often good value.
    No need to apologise; the deal was that he would stop denying it.
    If I were him, of course I would deny it, as I would clearly have some reason to do so.

    Given that I am not him, of course I will not deny it, because I AM NOT HIM.

    How thick do you have to be, not to see that obviousness? Clearly, as thick as YOU. Get a life. A different life.
    But you are, and we all know you are.

    Next topic.
    Oh gods, please just drop it, who the hell even cares anymore?
    Exactly.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    AndyJS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?

    That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
    NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    18% is nothing for Labour to worry about, because at the last election they went from 25% to 41% during the campaign, and that could happen again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
    I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
    I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.

    Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.

    One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
    Mr Bean is even more famous internationally. It does not mean that he would be a good UKPM.
    I don't know, Mr Bean could be quite cunning
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641

    TOPPING said:

    Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.

    No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.

    Very very dumb. If true.

    Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
    Ah righty ho. Or, under the circs, tally ho.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    As Labour destroy any lingering hope of winning the next GE, the important issue tonight for the Corbynites is:

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1146507509785604097
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is she really only 31?

    She looks... worn
    It's been a tough couple of weeks. Those settees don't bleach their own wine off you know.
    Sensible to get loose covers. And use a throw.
    I warm to the fact she is house proud, and felt monetary value of the damage he had done. On the other, accidents do happen, we don’t know the actual circumstances, or nature of apology etc but you shouldn’t lose it with someone whose suffered genuine accident, should you?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,301
    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
    I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
    I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.

    Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.

    One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
    Mr Bean is even more famous internationally. It does not mean that he would be a good UKPM.

    The final Tory collapse will come the other side of the next election. Watching Corbyn crash and burn, to be followed by Johnson, will be entirely delicious.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,175

    TOPPING said:

    Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.

    No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.

    Very very dumb. If true.

    Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
    What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671

    Surely Watson will find support now to make the move against the allotment holder? Even the diehards must know the game is up.

    No chance. They’ll double down and focus on deselections. Corbyn will never be removed. Having him as leader is far more important to most Labour members than defeating the English nationalist hard right.

    The cure will be an election wipe out I suppose.

    It will be too late, I think. I can see Labour going the same way as the SPD in Germany and the PS in France. I suspect the centre-left will turn progressively Green and Orange.

    Or Canadian, with Labour becoming a third party of the left like the NDP and the more centrist Liberals taking on the Conservatives
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?

    That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
    NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
    They have been very, very lucky. There are two sides in the tournament who are clearly superior - Pakistan and Bangladesh.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.

    No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.

    Very very dumb. If true.

    Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
    What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
    Yep.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 31,034
    notme2 said:

    Charles said:

    Byronic said:

    notme2 said:

    Byronic said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
    There isn't. Regression to the mean. For the same reason, there are no Bachs composing fabulous music.

    The Thatchers managed it in a single generation.
    Most families manage it in a single generation. That's genetics, geniuses are rare, most talents are not heritable.
    We had 3 fantastic generations, 3 solid ones, 1 complete fucking disaster, 1 solid one and a further 2 fantastic ones. The 11th round has only just started.

    (And by complete fucking disaster I mean on a scale unimaginable to most normal people)
    You descend from the line of Stuarts and you take the name of the disastrous one?
    Probably, but not that I’m aware of. We were very close to Queen Anne (if the Favourite is to be believed*)

    * descended from Emma Stone’s character. Her husband was a Plantagenet, which gives us our link to the royals
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    Raab on Peston now following Farage
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?

    That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
    NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
    Yes. I think they should have had spare days for the first round, not just the semi-finals and final.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 31,034
    Byronic said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
    I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
    I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.

    Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.

    One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
    I was in the US 10 days ago and virtually everyone asked me about his row with Carrie.
    Really? Honestly? That surprises me. Americans know and care that Boris had a domestic?!
    I was surprised as well. It seemed to really have cut through over there.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?

    That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
    NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
    Yes. I think they should have had spare days for the first round, not just the semi-finals and final.
    Right, or switch the venue if persistent rain is forecast 48 hours out. The washouts in the early days of the competition were all forecasted.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,759

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
    I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
    I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.

    Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.

    One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
    Mr Bean is even more famous internationally. It does not mean that he would be a good UKPM.

    The final Tory collapse will come the other side of the next election. Watching Corbyn crash and burn, to be followed by Johnson, will be entirely delicious.

    The decline of the Labour share takes away the threat of PM Corbyn, one of the Torys stronger cards.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.

    No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.

    Very very dumb. If true.

    Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
    What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
    It's a last throw of the dice. He knows he has almost no chance. So why not.

    One thing I learned from the 2015 election was the traction fox-hunting has with people AGAINST FOX HUNTING, it is possible the pledge to repeal the hunting Act cost the GE for Cameron.

    I dismissed this idea at the time, I am sure, in retrospect, I was wrong. Too many people mentioned it. No future Tory leader should even talk about it. The fox hunters will vote for them, anyway.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,533
    edited July 2019
    Zephyr said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.

    He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.

    Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.

    I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).

    My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.

    But I guess we'll see...

    Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
    I think that's the most likely scenario.

    Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    _Anazina_ said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?

    That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
    NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
    Yes. I think they should have had spare days for the first round, not just the semi-finals and final.
    Right, or switch the venue if persistent rain is forecast 48 hours out. The washouts in the early days of the competition were all forecasted.
    They made a big mistake IMO in scheduling matches in Cardiff, Bristol and Taunton for early June, the wettest part of the country and the wettest time of year in summer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    AndyJS said:

    18% is nothing for Labour to worry about, because at the last election they went from 25% to 41% during the campaign, and that could happen again.

    Genuine :lol:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,862
    edited July 2019
    A "strong and stable" Brexit/Con coalition to get us out of the EU there. :D

    With Brexit having most seats we'd have Prime Minister Farage to boot.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Charles said:

    Byronic said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
    I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
    I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.

    Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.

    One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
    I was in the US 10 days ago and virtually everyone asked me about his row with Carrie.
    Really? Honestly? That surprises me. Americans know and care that Boris had a domestic?!
    I was surprised as well. It seemed to really have cut through over there.
    After he’s being PM for a while, he can claim his natural born citizenship of the USA and run for President...

    Has there been a recent time in which the PM of the UK would also qualify to run for President of the USA and the president of the USA be able to qualify for British citizenship and run for office here?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,175
    It will be interesting to see the next LD manifesto.The last one was explicit in its opening that the pitch was to take over as the main opposition, although the actual manifesto itself went back and forth in tone in making opposition type pledges and ones envisaging, somehow, them being in government.

    How hard to lean on the idea Labour are the target, and that they would (on some polls at least) have a shot at the top vote share.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641
    edited July 2019
    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.

    No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.

    Very very dumb. If true.

    Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
    What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
    It's a last throw of the dice. He knows he has almost no chance. So why not.

    One thing I learned from the 2015 election was the traction fox-hunting has with people AGAINST FOX HUNTING, it is possible the pledge to repeal the hunting Act cost the GE for Cameron.

    I dismissed this idea at the time, I am sure, in retrospect, I was wrong. Too many people mentioned it. No future Tory leader should even talk about it. The fox hunters will vote for them, anyway.
    That is true but the Cons don't only need their votes they need them to be out on the streets for them as well.

    That has been the reason behind all the hunting announcements.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    AndyJS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?

    That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
    NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
    Yes. I think they should have had spare days for the first round, not just the semi-finals and final.
    Right, or switch the venue if persistent rain is forecast 48 hours out. The washouts in the early days of the competition were all forecasted.
    They made a big mistake IMO in scheduling matches in Cardiff, Bristol and Taunton for early June, the wettest part of the country and the wettest time of year in summer.
    It's a good tournament. It is such a shame it has been ghettoized on Sky. Otherwise the whole country would be talking about it. Sad.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    Raab on Peston says Boris would not try and repeal the Hunting Act
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 31,034
    notme2 said:

    Charles said:

    Byronic said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
    I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
    I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.

    Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.

    One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
    I was in the US 10 days ago and virtually everyone asked me about his row with Carrie.
    Really? Honestly? That surprises me. Americans know and care that Boris had a domestic?!
    I was surprised as well. It seemed to really have cut through over there.
    After he’s being PM for a while, he can claim his natural born citizenship of the USA and run for President...

    Has there been a recent time in which the PM of the UK would also qualify to run for President of the USA and the president of the USA be able to qualify for British citizenship and run for office here?
    My grandfather was eligible for both - ran in the UK and considered running in Tennessee.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916
    Byronic said:

    notme2 said:

    Byronic said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
    There isn't. Regression to the mean. For the same reason, there are no Bachs composing fabulous music.

    The Thatchers managed it in a single generation.
    Most families manage it in a single generation. That's genetics, geniuses are rare, most talents are not heritable.
    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/clogs_to_clogs_in_three_generations

    The father is a mercurial risk-taker, who builds up the business from nothing.
    The son is a dutiful plodder, who keeps the business going but does not innovate.
    The grandson is a feckless wastrel who thinks poverty is somebody else's problem and pisses it away.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,175
    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.

    No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.

    Very very dumb. If true.

    Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
    What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
    It's a last throw of the dice. He knows he has almost no chance. So why not.

    One thing I learned from the 2015 election was the traction fox-hunting has with people AGAINST FOX HUNTING, it is possible the pledge to repeal the hunting Act cost the GE for Cameron.

    I dismissed this idea at the time, I am sure, in retrospect, I was wrong. Too many people mentioned it. No future Tory leader should even talk about it. The fox hunters will vote for them, anyway.
    Sure it is a throw of the dice, but is this really the best throw he could think of? He's experienced enough to know how his comments would be reported, he cannot whinge about that.

    As you say, better to just not even talk about it, or muddle better if asked.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    YouGov also published a poll in Germany today, (which they don't often):

    CDU/CSU 25%
    Greens 25%
    SPD 13%
    AfD 13%
    Linke 8%
    FDP 7%
    Others 8%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,533
    MikeL said:

    I don't understand the Electoral Calculus seat projection on tonight's YouGov.

    Is it really likely that the BRX vote will be more efficiently distributed than the Con vote? Surely all history of 3rd parties tells us this isn't the case.

    In contrast Flavible seat projection for tonight's YouGov is:

    Con 202, BRX 160, Lab 119, LD 96 - which looks far more realistic.

    Nobody knows how the Brexit vote will be distributed. The seat models were not built for a situation where the top two parties got 80% to one where the same two parties are now sub 40%, and the new top party didn't stand last time.

    The Brexit vote might be really efficiently distributed, and result in them scooping up 200+ seats. Or it might be really inefficiently spread, and they end up sub 75. No-one knows.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,175
    GIN1138 said:

    A "strong and stable" Brexit/Con coalition to get us out of the EU there. :D

    With Brexit having most seats we'd have Prime Minister Farage to boot.
    It would almost be hilarious if BXP had most seats and Farage still couldn't win a seat.
    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    notme2 said:

    Byronic said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
    There isn't. Regression to the mean. For the same reason, there are no Bachs composing fabulous music.

    The Thatchers managed it in a single generation.
    Most families manage it in a single generation. That's genetics, geniuses are rare, most talents are not heritable.
    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/clogs_to_clogs_in_three_generations

    The father is a mercurial risk-taker, who builds up the business from nothing.
    The son is a dutiful plodder, who keeps the business going but does not innovate.
    The grandson is a feckless wastrel who thinks poverty is somebody else's problem and pisses it away.
    I've seen the son step being instead the one who expands the business, before passing along to the feckless grandson. So claimed a grandson I know who was keen to stress the 2 steps had been reversed in his family's case.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    Foxy said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
    I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
    I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.

    Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.

    One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
    Mr Bean is even more famous internationally. It does not mean that he would be a good UKPM.

    The final Tory collapse will come the other side of the next election. Watching Corbyn crash and burn, to be followed by Johnson, will be entirely delicious.

    The decline of the Labour share takes away the threat of PM Corbyn, one of the Torys stronger cards.
    Yes indeed. And a chance for the LibDems to avoid the Labour ‘keep the Tories out’ squeeze.

    Now we wait for Green/Labour crossover...
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    AndyJS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?

    That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
    NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
    Yes. I think they should have had spare days for the first round, not just the semi-finals and final.
    Right, or switch the venue if persistent rain is forecast 48 hours out. The washouts in the early days of the competition were all forecasted.
    They made a big mistake IMO in scheduling matches in Cardiff, Bristol and Taunton for early June, the wettest part of the country and the wettest time of year in summer.
    Fair point. There was once a plan to play cricket matches at the Olympic Stadium in Stratford. What happened to that? East London is one of the driest parts of the country.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,175
    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.

    No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.

    Very very dumb. If true.

    Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
    What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
    It's a last throw of the dice. He knows he has almost no chance. So why not.

    One thing I learned from the 2015 election was the traction fox-hunting has with people AGAINST FOX HUNTING, it is possible the pledge to repeal the hunting Act cost the GE for Cameron.

    I dismissed this idea at the time, I am sure, in retrospect, I was wrong. Too many people mentioned it. No future Tory leader should even talk about it. The fox hunters will vote for them, anyway.
    That is true but the Cons don't only need their votes they need them to be out on the streets for them as well.

    That has been the reason behind all the hunting announcements.
    It seems counterproductive though. It gets those ones out, but from the last time it came up it just annoys a whole bunch of other Tories, who either oppose it, or just don't want people banging on about it to them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,175
    HYUFD said:

    Raab on Peston says Boris would not try and repeal the Hunting Act

    But what does Boris say? We can hardly rely on his proxies' interpretations of what he wants, they sometimes seem confused about what he wants.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.

    No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.

    Very very dumb. If true.

    Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
    What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
    It's a last throw of the dice. He knows he has almost no chance. So why not.

    One thing I learned from the 2015 election was the traction fox-hunting has with people AGAINST FOX HUNTING, it is possible the pledge to repeal the hunting Act cost the GE for Cameron.

    I dismissed this idea at the time, I am sure, in retrospect, I was wrong. Too many people mentioned it. No future Tory leader should even talk about it. The fox hunters will vote for them, anyway.
    That is true but the Cons don't only need their votes they need them to be out on the streets for them as well.

    That has been the reason behind all the hunting announcements.
    It seems counterproductive though. It gets those ones out, but from the last time it came up it just annoys a whole bunch of other Tories, who either oppose it, or just don't want people banging on about it to them.
    Oh absolutely. No one was more shocked by May's announcement than the hunting community.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    rcs1000 said:

    Zephyr said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.

    He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.

    Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.

    I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).

    My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.

    But I guess we'll see...

    Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
    I think that's the most likely scenario.

    Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
    A Sanders withdrawal would boost Warren?

    The winning Dem platform I think is the one that moves Trump into the field he doesn’t want to fight in. A perception his policies benefit the rich most of all, for example. I suspect Warrens too radical policy platform would play into Trumps hands, and the party should thoroughly test it. Funding campaign promises with tax hike on the rich that won’t bring the proposed funding in. Too far on healthcare, not just too quickly but maybe simply too far for mainstream America

    If nominee is Harris, Would the Sanders/Warren support get behind Harris, in contrast to how they did not seem energised by Hilary?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?

    That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
    NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
    Yes. I think they should have had spare days for the first round, not just the semi-finals and final.
    Right, or switch the venue if persistent rain is forecast 48 hours out. The washouts in the early days of the competition were all forecasted.
    They made a big mistake IMO in scheduling matches in Cardiff, Bristol and Taunton for early June, the wettest part of the country and the wettest time of year in summer.
    It's a good tournament. It is such a shame it has been ghettoized on Sky. Otherwise the whole country would be talking about it. Sad.
    Yes, it’s a great tournament. I think England matches really ought to be Blue Riband events and reserved for free-to-air. I have Sky so have watched most of the games but I think the national team in the national summer sport should be on terrestrial telly.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    !!! A rather strange, saddening Twitter thread

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1146544123219972098?s=20
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    Honestly, I can no longer tell whether stuff is irony or not:

    https://twitter.com/luqmankhan555/status/1146500761343463424
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    GIN1138 said:

    A "strong and stable" Brexit/Con coalition to get us out of the EU there. :D

    With Brexit having most seats we'd have Prime Minister Farage to boot.
    Boris can be his teaboy.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 31,034
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.

    No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.

    Very very dumb. If true.

    Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
    What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
    It's a last throw of the dice. He knows he has almost no chance. So why not.

    One thing I learned from the 2015 election was the traction fox-hunting has with people AGAINST FOX HUNTING, it is possible the pledge to repeal the hunting Act cost the GE for Cameron.

    I dismissed this idea at the time, I am sure, in retrospect, I was wrong. Too many people mentioned it. No future Tory leader should even talk about it. The fox hunters will vote for them, anyway.
    That is true but the Cons don't only need their votes they need them to be out on the streets for them as well.

    That has been the reason behind all the hunting announcements.
    It seems counterproductive though. It gets those ones out, but from the last time it came up it just annoys a whole bunch of other Tories, who either oppose it, or just don't want people banging on about it to them.
    Oh absolutely. No one was more shocked by May's announcement than the hunting community.
    She was famous for her tactical nouse
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Byronic said:

    !!! A rather strange, saddening Twitter thread

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1146544123219972098?s=20

    I read his original post very differently to (what I think is) its actual meaning!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,533
    Zephyr said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Zephyr said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.

    He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.

    Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.

    I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).

    My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.

    But I guess we'll see...

    Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
    I think that's the most likely scenario.

    Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
    A Sanders withdrawal would boost Warren?

    The winning Dem platform I think is the one that moves Trump into the field he doesn’t want to fight in. A perception his policies benefit the rich most of all, for example. I suspect Warrens too radical policy platform would play into Trumps hands, and the party should thoroughly test it. Funding campaign promises with tax hike on the rich that won’t bring the proposed funding in. Too far on healthcare, not just too quickly but maybe simply too far for mainstream America

    If nominee is Harris, Would the Sanders/Warren support get behind Harris, in contrast to how they did not seem energised by Hilary?
    I think Harris is a good Democratic candidate. Based on the Barr hearing and the first debate, I think she would really get under Trump's skin.

    "President Trump, I spend more than a decade putting criminals like you behind bars." and that kind of thing.

    I also think she could have the same impact on black turnout in places like North Carolina that Obama did.

    Re the Left of the Democrats. They were complacent in 2016. They didn't really think Trump could win, and therefore they sat at home and grumped. This time around, they will be far from complacent.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    A "strong and stable" Brexit/Con coalition to get us out of the EU there. :D

    With Brexit having most seats we'd have Prime Minister Farage to boot.
    Boris can be his teaboy.
    Useless fact: Farage is 77 days older than Johnson.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,171
    Polls like tonight's YouGov surely increase the chance of Boris getting a Brexit deal through the Commons.

    Lab MPs from strong Leave areas are going to think they need Brexit done and out of the way to neutralise the BRX threat - which is a threat to them personally in their own seat.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.

    No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.

    Very very dumb. If true.

    Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
    What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
    It's a last throw of the dice. He knows he has almost no chance. So why not.

    One thing I learned from the 2015 election was the traction fox-hunting has with people AGAINST FOX HUNTING, it is possible the pledge to repeal the hunting Act cost the GE for Cameron.

    I dismissed this idea at the time, I am sure, in retrospect, I was wrong. Too many people mentioned it. No future Tory leader should even talk about it. The fox hunters will vote for them, anyway.
    That is true but the Cons don't only need their votes they need them to be out on the streets for them as well.

    That has been the reason behind all the hunting announcements.
    It seems counterproductive though. It gets those ones out, but from the last time it came up it just annoys a whole bunch of other Tories, who either oppose it, or just don't want people banging on about it to them.
    Oh absolutely. No one was more shocked by May's announcement than the hunting community.
    She was famous for her tactical nouse
    😀
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    Zephyr said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Zephyr said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.

    He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.

    Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.

    I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).

    My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.

    But I guess we'll see...

    Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
    I think that's the most likely scenario.

    Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
    A Sanders withdrawal would boost Warren?

    The winning Dem platform I think is the one that moves Trump into the field he doesn’t want to fight in. A perception his policies benefit the rich most of all, for example. I suspect Warrens too radical policy platform would play into Trumps hands, and the party should thoroughly test it. Funding campaign promises with tax hike on the rich that won’t bring the proposed funding in. Too far on healthcare, not just too quickly but maybe simply too far for mainstream America

    If nominee is Harris, Would the Sanders/Warren support get behind Harris, in contrast to how they did not seem energised by Hilary?
    Trump fears Biden. No one else.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    _Anazina_ said:

    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?

    That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
    NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
    Yes. I think they should have had spare days for the first round, not just the semi-finals and final.
    Right, or switch the venue if persistent rain is forecast 48 hours out. The washouts in the early days of the competition were all forecasted.
    They made a big mistake IMO in scheduling matches in Cardiff, Bristol and Taunton for early June, the wettest part of the country and the wettest time of year in summer.
    It's a good tournament. It is such a shame it has been ghettoized on Sky. Otherwise the whole country would be talking about it. Sad.
    Yes, it’s a great tournament. I think England matches really ought to be Blue Riband events and reserved for free-to-air. I have Sky so have watched most of the games but I think the national team in the national summer sport should be on terrestrial telly.
    Yep, it was a terrible error for the ECB to give England games to Sky.

    The game in Britain is on a knife edge. It is shedding players and interest in this country. Yet with money and interest from the sub-continent cricket has the potential to become one of THE major global sports after football. But for this it needs global spread, and for that it needs the UK to be a major player and for THAT it needs the sport to thrive here.

    This World Cup had the potential to boost the sport, in the UK; the fleeting opportunity has not been taken. A shame.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    A "strong and stable" Brexit/Con coalition to get us out of the EU there. :D

    With Brexit having most seats we'd have Prime Minister Farage to boot.
    Boris can be his teaboy.
    Useless fact: Farage is 77 days older than Johnson.
    I think they call the tea boy 'a fag' at Eton.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,175
    MikeL said:

    Polls like tonight's YouGov surely increase the chance of Boris getting a Brexit deal through the Commons.

    Lab MPs from strong Leave areas are going to think they need Brexit done and out of the way to neutralise the BRX threat - which is a threat to them personally in their own seat.

    Boris cannot bring the WA back unless it has changes, or he will be pilloried by dozens of his own MPs. So if he doesn't get changes, or he does but it does not convince the spartans, he needs at least a couple of dozen more Lab MPs given some who backed the WA last time may not anymore, and he'll probably be another MP down after August 1st.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    _Anazina_ said:

    Byronic said:

    !!! A rather strange, saddening Twitter thread

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1146544123219972098?s=20

    I read his original post very differently to (what I think is) its actual meaning!
    Whoever did that ought to mind their own business, (reading the whole thing).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,337

    https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1146536299047899144

    I preferred James O'Brien's anti-Blair chuntering fucknuts comment but it has been deleted.

    OHHHHHH JERERRRRRMY CORBYN.....oh...I think I better return my I heart Jez t-shirt.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,718
    edited July 2019
    I see YouGov have released a poll again...

    For those asking how we recover from this massive catastrophe, our usual strategy is to wait for a non YouGov polling company to release a poll and suddenly things look a lot better in first place (or 2nd with Mori)

    Now to clarify I am not saying YouGov is definitely wrong or should be completely ignored. I just have the somewhat controversial opinion that we shouldn't completely ignore the non YouGov pollsters either. I apologise in advance for any anger this line of thinking causes....

    Edit: Also just to note YouGov have had us on 19% quite a few times recently (back to end of May) this isn't really out of line with what YouGov have been saying about Labour for over a month now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    Mori finds Farage most honest, followed by Corbyn, Hunt and Boris.

    However voters see Boris as best to be PM, followed by Hunt, Farage and Corbyn

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7210483/Voters-believe-Brexit-Party-leader-Nigel-Farage-honest-party-leaders.html
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,560
    kle4 said:

    Aren't YouGov typically showing lower Lab ratings than the others?

    YouGov got LAB to within 1% at the Euros - far better than all but one of the other pollsters some of which overstated the party by 10%+
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2019
    How low would Labour have to go before they get rid of Corbyn and McDonnell?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,533
    edited July 2019

    Zephyr said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Zephyr said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.

    He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.

    Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.

    I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).

    My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.

    But I guess we'll see...

    Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
    I think that's the most likely scenario.

    Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
    A Sanders withdrawal would boost Warren?

    The winning Dem platform I think is the one that moves Trump into the field he doesn’t want to fight in. A perception his policies benefit the rich most of all, for example. I suspect Warrens too radical policy platform would play into Trumps hands, and the party should thoroughly test it. Funding campaign promises with tax hike on the rich that won’t bring the proposed funding in. Too far on healthcare, not just too quickly but maybe simply too far for mainstream America

    If nominee is Harris, Would the Sanders/Warren support get behind Harris, in contrast to how they did not seem energised by Hilary?
    Trump fears Biden. No one else.
    Then Trump's an idiot. Biden is a boring gaff prone cypher who's a decade past his sell by date. He can't debate and he can't inspire. Allegedly he fires up Democrats in the rust belt, but there isn't any actual evidence that the rust belt is chock full of people who want a President who's unable to remember the end to the story he started telling.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,718

    kle4 said:

    Aren't YouGov typically showing lower Lab ratings than the others?

    YouGov got LAB to within 1% at the Euros - far better than all but one of the other pollsters some of which overstated the party by 10%+
    YouGov are the best for modelling Labour in European elections on current evidence.

    Survation is the pollster you want for a general election though.

    If you are going on the best in the previous system, although I would argue that has shown itself to be flawed previously with best pollsters often losing out in the next election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288

    Zephyr said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Zephyr said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.

    He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.

    Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.

    I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).

    My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.

    But I guess we'll see...

    Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
    I think that's the most likely scenario.

    Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
    A Sanders withdrawal would boost Warren?

    The winning Dem platform I think is the one that moves Trump into the field he doesn’t want to fight in. A perception his policies benefit the rich most of all, for example. I suspect Warrens too radical policy platform would play into Trumps hands, and the party should thoroughly test it. Funding campaign promises with tax hike on the rich that won’t bring the proposed funding in. Too far on healthcare, not just too quickly but maybe simply too far for mainstream America

    If nominee is Harris, Would the Sanders/Warren support get behind Harris, in contrast to how they did not seem energised by Hilary?
    Trump fears Biden. No one else.
    Trump’s thoughts on the Democratic race, despite his rather desperate efforts to make himself some kind of arbiter, are not particularly relevant.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 31,034
    rcs1000 said:

    Zephyr said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Zephyr said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.

    He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.

    Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.

    I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).

    My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.

    But I guess we'll see...

    Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
    I think that's the most likely scenario.

    Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
    A Sanders withdrawal would boost Warren?

    The winning Dem platform I think is the one that moves Trump into the field he doesn’t want to fight in. A perception his policies benefit the rich most of all, for example. I suspect Warrens too radical policy platform would play into Trumps hands, and the party should thoroughly test it. Funding campaign promises with tax hike on the rich that won’t bring the proposed funding in. Too far on healthcare, not just too quickly but maybe simply too far for mainstream America

    If nominee is Harris, Would the Sanders/Warren support get behind Harris, in contrast to how they did not seem energised by Hilary?
    Trump fears Biden. No one else.
    Then Trump's an idiot. Biden is a boring gaff prone cypher who's a decade past his sell by date. He can't debate and he can't inspire. Allegedly he fires up Democrats in the rust belt, but there isn't any actual evidence that the rust belt is chock full of people who want a President who's unable to remember the end to the story he started telling.
    So *that's* why he always tells the same story about the waiter
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    rcs1000 said:

    Zephyr said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Zephyr said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.

    I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).

    My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.

    But I guess we'll see...

    Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
    I think that's the most likely scenario.

    Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
    If nominee is Harris, Would the Sanders/Warren support get behind Harris, in contrast to how they did not seem energised by Hilary?
    I think Harris is a good Democratic candidate. Based on the Barr hearing and the first debate, I think she would really get under Trump's skin.

    "President Trump, I spend more than a decade putting criminals like you behind bars." and that kind of thing.

    I also think she could have the same impact on black turnout in places like North Carolina that Obama did.

    Re the Left of the Democrats. They were complacent in 2016. They didn't really think Trump could win, and therefore they sat at home and grumped. This time around, they will be far from complacent.
    Another interesting aspect of this election, two things from 2016. Awareness now of foreign interference in the election, using new media. But also, lesson learnt from Brexit ref, the use of analytics from the mountains of data social media have built up on us all, such as when you have 2 billion users, trends become very clear. Surely this is superior to blanket advertising, so will be used by everyone to tailor and target the message that voter most wants to hear? Are there clear laws and policing of what data can be harvested, how it is done and used?
This discussion has been closed.