Surely Watson will find support now to make the move against the allotment holder? Even the diehards must know the game is up.
No chance. They’ll double down and focus on deselections. Corbyn will never be removed. Having him as leader is far more important to most Labour members than defeating the English nationalist hard right.
The cure will be an election wipe out I suppose.
That's what the Labour 'moderates' thought last time. Then they ended up kowtowing to the Jezziah and singing 'Oh Jeremy'.
Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.
I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.
The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.
Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
Byronic, apologies. Force of habit! It’s the cadence of your prose, recalls a former PBer. He and I were on opposite sides of the traditional political divide but he was often good value.
No need to apologise; the deal was that he would stop denying it.
I personally think a reasonable percentage of people will refuse to say they support Labour but would still vote for them... 🤷♂️
The Green 9% figure probably wouldn't hold up in a GE. I expect though in a tight Lab-Con marginal a few Brexit party respondents might go and back Boris. Labour polling 4th is appalling midterm for them.
BXP / CON with 100+ majority for, one imagines, a very limited program.
Such a result would surely also be a killer blow for FPTP. But I somehow think that at hese numbers all guesses are mug's games.
I think what Electoral Calculus does go to show, varying wildly between different polls just a few percent apart, is that an election fought on a backdrop of current numbers would be wildly unpredictable, as we are close to so many pivot points.
I still think it likeliest that LDs score in the 50ish MP range, and Brexit in the couple of dozen, and that Labour wlli benefit from FPTP more than the Tories at these levels, but that could just be a natural instinct to go against predicting the extremer outcomes. Who knows?
In a normal era, a poll like this would end the LOTO's career tomorrow.
When are Labour members and union activists going to wake up? Jezza is leading you to total defeat.
Because they think they will make up 20 points in a GE campaign like last time. That’s what they are clinging onto.
Desperate. Those new LibDems voters clearly aren't coming back.
Jezza will have to have 'People's Vote' tattooed across his forehead in block capitals to turn this around.
I've heard rumours that the Corbyn-is-unwell anecdotes are not entirely unsubstantiated. So there might be a vacancy soon-ish.
It will be a fascinating struggle. The Tories should be scared. All Labour needs is a decent enough leader with a believable Remainer background and they will sweep to a large polling lead.
Of course Labour might persist with their insanity, and then who knows.
Yep. It is incredible. Labour are one good leadership change from wiping out a split Right.
But the left have to hold on to their messiah. Bonkers.
Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.
Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
There isn't. Regression to the mean. For the same reason, there are no Bachs composing fabulous music.
The Thatchers managed it in a single generation.
Most families manage it in a single generation. That's genetics, geniuses are rare, most talents are not heritable.
We had 3 fantastic generations, 3 solid ones, 1 complete fucking disaster, 1 solid one and a further 2 fantastic ones. The 11th round has only just started.
(And by complete fucking disaster I mean on a scale unimaginable to most normal people)
Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.
I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.
The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.
Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
Byronic, apologies. Force of habit! It’s the cadence of your prose, recalls a former PBer. He and I were on opposite sides of the traditional political divide but he was often good value.
No need to apologise; the deal was that he would stop denying it.
If I were him, of course I would deny it, as I would clearly have some reason to do so.
Given that I am not him, of course I will not deny it, because I AM NOT HIM.
How thick do you have to be, not to see that obviousness? Clearly, as thick as YOU. Get a life. A different life.
Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.
I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.
The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.
Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
FWIW I think it’s rather invalidating and unpleasant. Once or twice might have been funny but now it’s the implication that you have no unique voice or intrinsic merit
I don't understand the Electoral Calculus seat projection on tonight's YouGov.
Is it really likely that the BRX vote will be more efficiently distributed than the Con vote? Surely all history of 3rd parties tells us this isn't the case.
In contrast Flavible seat projection for tonight's YouGov is:
Con 202, BRX 160, Lab 119, LD 96 - which looks far more realistic.
I don't know how they can make any projections for the Brexit Party since it didn't stand at the last election.
Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.
I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.
The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.
Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
Byronic, apologies. Force of habit! It’s the cadence of your prose, recalls a former PBer. He and I were on opposite sides of the traditional political divide but he was often good value.
No need to apologise; the deal was that he would stop denying it.
If I were him, of course I would deny it, as I would clearly have some reason to do so.
Given that I am not him, of course I will not deny it, because I AM NOT HIM.
How thick do you have to be, not to see that obviousness? Clearly, as thick as YOU. Get a life. A different life.
Yes but Brit ex pats are special . EU nationals aren’t the same when they come to the UK. This was highlighted by interviews with some ex pats in Spain who voted Leave , they said there were too many immigrants in the UK.
When it was pointed out to them they’re immigrants in Spain , they replied we’re ex pats and the Spanish need our money !
Oh Please. Do not use an example of a few dickheads to assume that we are all like that. It may well be that the largest single group of British citizens living in an EU country are UK pensioners in Spain but it is certainly not most of the British citizens living in an EU country.
On the whole we are either hard working people, who take an interest in our locality, the country in which we live and in the UK. Include in this group those who have now retired having worked in both the UK and other EU countries. I, and I am sure there are tens of thousand UK citizens like me, am broken hearted to see how destructive the politics in the UK has become, and am frankly relieved that I made the choice to move to another country before the Brex-shit hit the fan.
He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.
Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.
Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.
One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
I was in the US 10 days ago and virtually everyone asked me about his row with Carrie.
I don't understand the Electoral Calculus seat projection on tonight's YouGov.
Is it really likely that the BRX vote will be more efficiently distributed than the Con vote? Surely all history of 3rd parties tells us this isn't the case.
In contrast Flavible seat projection for tonight's YouGov is:
Con 202, BRX 160, Lab 119, LD 96 - which looks far more realistic.
I don't know how they can make any projections for the Brexit Party since it didn't stand at the last election.
I recall someone saying that they use the UKIP figure.
Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.
I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.
The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.
Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
Byronic, apologies. Force of habit! It’s the cadence of your prose, recalls a former PBer. He and I were on opposite sides of the traditional political divide but he was often good value.
No need to apologise; the deal was that he would stop denying it.
If I were him, of course I would deny it, as I would clearly have some reason to do so.
Given that I am not him, of course I will not deny it, because I AM NOT HIM.
How thick do you have to be, not to see that obviousness? Clearly, as thick as YOU. Get a life. A different life.
Take your word for it but to misquote that old margarine ad 'I can't believe it's not SeanT!'
Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.
I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.
The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.
Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
Byronic, apologies. Force of habit! It’s the cadence of your prose, recalls a former PBer. He and I were on opposite sides of the traditional political divide but he was often good value.
No need to apologise; the deal was that he would stop denying it.
If I were him, of course I would deny it, as I would clearly have some reason to do so.
Given that I am not him, of course I will not deny it, because I AM NOT HIM.
How thick do you have to be, not to see that obviousness? Clearly, as thick as YOU. Get a life. A different life.
But you are, and we all know you are.
Next topic.
Oh gods, please just drop it, who the hell even cares anymore?
Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.
I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.
The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.
Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
Byronic, apologies. Force of habit! It’s the cadence of your prose, recalls a former PBer. He and I were on opposite sides of the traditional political divide but he was often good value.
No need to apologise; the deal was that he would stop denying it.
If I were him, of course I would deny it, as I would clearly have some reason to do so.
Given that I am not him, of course I will not deny it, because I AM NOT HIM.
How thick do you have to be, not to see that obviousness? Clearly, as thick as YOU. Get a life. A different life.
But you are, and we all know you are.
Next topic.
And you're a bit creepy, and weirdly obsessed. And we can all see that.
Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.
Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
There isn't. Regression to the mean. For the same reason, there are no Bachs composing fabulous music.
The Thatchers managed it in a single generation.
Most families manage it in a single generation. That's genetics, geniuses are rare, most talents are not heritable.
We had 3 fantastic generations, 3 solid ones, 1 complete fucking disaster, 1 solid one and a further 2 fantastic ones. The 11th round has only just started.
(And by complete fucking disaster I mean on a scale unimaginable to most normal people)
You descend from the line of Stuarts and you take the name of the disastrous one?
Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.
No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.
I don't understand the Electoral Calculus seat projection on tonight's YouGov.
Is it really likely that the BRX vote will be more efficiently distributed than the Con vote? Surely all history of 3rd parties tells us this isn't the case.
In contrast Flavible seat projection for tonight's YouGov is:
Con 202, BRX 160, Lab 119, LD 96 - which looks far more realistic.
I don't know how they can make any projections for the Brexit Party since it didn't stand at the last election.
You might be able to model support by extrapolating from the european election result (And making sure the total numbers sum through to 23%). Also UKIP 2015++ ?
Surely Watson will find support now to make the move against the allotment holder? Even the diehards must know the game is up.
No chance. They’ll double down and focus on deselections. Corbyn will never be removed. Having him as leader is far more important to most Labour members than defeating the English nationalist hard right.
The cure will be an election wipe out I suppose.
It will be too late, I think. I can see Labour going the same way as the SPD in Germany and the PS in France. I suspect the centre-left will turn progressively Green and Orange.
Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?
That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.
Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.
Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.
One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
I was in the US 10 days ago and virtually everyone asked me about his row with Carrie.
Really? Honestly? That surprises me. Americans know and care that Boris had a domestic?!
Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.
Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
There isn't. Regression to the mean. For the same reason, there are no Bachs composing fabulous music.
The Thatchers managed it in a single generation.
Most families manage it in a single generation. That's genetics, geniuses are rare, most talents are not heritable.
We had 3 fantastic generations, 3 solid ones, 1 complete fucking disaster, 1 solid one and a further 2 fantastic ones. The 11th round has only just started.
(And by complete fucking disaster I mean on a scale unimaginable to most normal people)
You descend from the line of Stuarts and you take the name of the disastrous one?
Well he is the only one who is a Saint. Of a sort.
I don't understand the Electoral Calculus seat projection on tonight's YouGov.
Is it really likely that the BRX vote will be more efficiently distributed than the Con vote? Surely all history of 3rd parties tells us this isn't the case.
In contrast Flavible seat projection for tonight's YouGov is:
Con 202, BRX 160, Lab 119, LD 96 - which looks far more realistic.
I don't know how they can make any projections for the Brexit Party since it didn't stand at the last election.
You might be able to model support by extrapolating from the european election result (And making sure the total numbers sum through to 23%). Also UKIP 2015 ?
You could try but it wouldn't be very reliable IMO.
Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.
No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.
Very very dumb. If true.
Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.
I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.
The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.
Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
FWIW I think it’s rather invalidating and unpleasant. Once or twice might have been funny but now it’s the implication that you have no unique voice or intrinsic merit
He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.
Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.
Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.
One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
Mr Bean is even more famous internationally. It does not mean that he would be a good UKPM.
Surely Watson will find support now to make the move against the allotment holder? Even the diehards must know the game is up.
No chance. They’ll double down and focus on deselections. Corbyn will never be removed. Having him as leader is far more important to most Labour members than defeating the English nationalist hard right.
The cure will be an election wipe out I suppose.
It will be too late, I think. I can see Labour going the same way as the SPD in Germany and the PS in France. I suspect the centre-left will turn progressively Green and Orange.
Yes, exactly. British politics is becoming more European, even as we exit the EU. A spicy irony.
He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.
Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.
Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.
One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
I was in the US 10 days ago and virtually everyone asked me about his row with Carrie.
He is like a mini Trump for Americans I suppose with a bit more humour and vocabulary
Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.
I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.
The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.
Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
Byronic, apologies. Force of habit! It’s the cadence of your prose, recalls a former PBer. He and I were on opposite sides of the traditional political divide but he was often good value.
No need to apologise; the deal was that he would stop denying it.
If I were him, of course I would deny it, as I would clearly have some reason to do so.
Given that I am not him, of course I will not deny it, because I AM NOT HIM.
How thick do you have to be, not to see that obviousness? Clearly, as thick as YOU. Get a life. A different life.
But you are, and we all know you are.
Next topic.
Oh gods, please just drop it, who the hell even cares anymore?
Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?
That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.
Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.
Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.
One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
Mr Bean is even more famous internationally. It does not mean that he would be a good UKPM.
Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.
No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.
Very very dumb. If true.
Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
It's been a tough couple of weeks. Those settees don't bleach their own wine off you know.
Sensible to get loose covers. And use a throw. I warm to the fact she is house proud, and felt monetary value of the damage he had done. On the other, accidents do happen, we don’t know the actual circumstances, or nature of apology etc but you shouldn’t lose it with someone whose suffered genuine accident, should you?
He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.
Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.
Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.
One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
Mr Bean is even more famous internationally. It does not mean that he would be a good UKPM.
The final Tory collapse will come the other side of the next election. Watching Corbyn crash and burn, to be followed by Johnson, will be entirely delicious.
Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.
No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.
Very very dumb. If true.
Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
Surely Watson will find support now to make the move against the allotment holder? Even the diehards must know the game is up.
No chance. They’ll double down and focus on deselections. Corbyn will never be removed. Having him as leader is far more important to most Labour members than defeating the English nationalist hard right.
The cure will be an election wipe out I suppose.
It will be too late, I think. I can see Labour going the same way as the SPD in Germany and the PS in France. I suspect the centre-left will turn progressively Green and Orange.
Or Canadian, with Labour becoming a third party of the left like the NDP and the more centrist Liberals taking on the Conservatives
Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?
That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
They have been very, very lucky. There are two sides in the tournament who are clearly superior - Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.
No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.
Very very dumb. If true.
Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.
Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
There isn't. Regression to the mean. For the same reason, there are no Bachs composing fabulous music.
The Thatchers managed it in a single generation.
Most families manage it in a single generation. That's genetics, geniuses are rare, most talents are not heritable.
We had 3 fantastic generations, 3 solid ones, 1 complete fucking disaster, 1 solid one and a further 2 fantastic ones. The 11th round has only just started.
(And by complete fucking disaster I mean on a scale unimaginable to most normal people)
You descend from the line of Stuarts and you take the name of the disastrous one?
Probably, but not that I’m aware of. We were very close to Queen Anne (if the Favourite is to be believed*)
* descended from Emma Stone’s character. Her husband was a Plantagenet, which gives us our link to the royals
Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?
That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
Yes. I think they should have had spare days for the first round, not just the semi-finals and final.
He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.
Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.
Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.
One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
I was in the US 10 days ago and virtually everyone asked me about his row with Carrie.
Really? Honestly? That surprises me. Americans know and care that Boris had a domestic?!
I was surprised as well. It seemed to really have cut through over there.
Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?
That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
Yes. I think they should have had spare days for the first round, not just the semi-finals and final.
Right, or switch the venue if persistent rain is forecast 48 hours out. The washouts in the early days of the competition were all forecasted.
He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.
Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.
Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.
One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
Mr Bean is even more famous internationally. It does not mean that he would be a good UKPM.
The final Tory collapse will come the other side of the next election. Watching Corbyn crash and burn, to be followed by Johnson, will be entirely delicious.
The decline of the Labour share takes away the threat of PM Corbyn, one of the Torys stronger cards.
Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.
No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.
Very very dumb. If true.
Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
It's a last throw of the dice. He knows he has almost no chance. So why not.
One thing I learned from the 2015 election was the traction fox-hunting has with people AGAINST FOX HUNTING, it is possible the pledge to repeal the hunting Act cost the GE for Cameron.
I dismissed this idea at the time, I am sure, in retrospect, I was wrong. Too many people mentioned it. No future Tory leader should even talk about it. The fox hunters will vote for them, anyway.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.
He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.
Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.
I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).
My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.
But I guess we'll see...
Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
I think that's the most likely scenario.
Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?
That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
Yes. I think they should have had spare days for the first round, not just the semi-finals and final.
Right, or switch the venue if persistent rain is forecast 48 hours out. The washouts in the early days of the competition were all forecasted.
They made a big mistake IMO in scheduling matches in Cardiff, Bristol and Taunton for early June, the wettest part of the country and the wettest time of year in summer.
He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.
Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.
Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.
One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
I was in the US 10 days ago and virtually everyone asked me about his row with Carrie.
Really? Honestly? That surprises me. Americans know and care that Boris had a domestic?!
I was surprised as well. It seemed to really have cut through over there.
After he’s being PM for a while, he can claim his natural born citizenship of the USA and run for President...
Has there been a recent time in which the PM of the UK would also qualify to run for President of the USA and the president of the USA be able to qualify for British citizenship and run for office here?
It will be interesting to see the next LD manifesto.The last one was explicit in its opening that the pitch was to take over as the main opposition, although the actual manifesto itself went back and forth in tone in making opposition type pledges and ones envisaging, somehow, them being in government.
How hard to lean on the idea Labour are the target, and that they would (on some polls at least) have a shot at the top vote share.
Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.
No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.
Very very dumb. If true.
Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
It's a last throw of the dice. He knows he has almost no chance. So why not.
One thing I learned from the 2015 election was the traction fox-hunting has with people AGAINST FOX HUNTING, it is possible the pledge to repeal the hunting Act cost the GE for Cameron.
I dismissed this idea at the time, I am sure, in retrospect, I was wrong. Too many people mentioned it. No future Tory leader should even talk about it. The fox hunters will vote for them, anyway.
That is true but the Cons don't only need their votes they need them to be out on the streets for them as well.
That has been the reason behind all the hunting announcements.
Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?
That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
Yes. I think they should have had spare days for the first round, not just the semi-finals and final.
Right, or switch the venue if persistent rain is forecast 48 hours out. The washouts in the early days of the competition were all forecasted.
They made a big mistake IMO in scheduling matches in Cardiff, Bristol and Taunton for early June, the wettest part of the country and the wettest time of year in summer.
It's a good tournament. It is such a shame it has been ghettoized on Sky. Otherwise the whole country would be talking about it. Sad.
He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.
Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.
Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.
One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
I was in the US 10 days ago and virtually everyone asked me about his row with Carrie.
Really? Honestly? That surprises me. Americans know and care that Boris had a domestic?!
I was surprised as well. It seemed to really have cut through over there.
After he’s being PM for a while, he can claim his natural born citizenship of the USA and run for President...
Has there been a recent time in which the PM of the UK would also qualify to run for President of the USA and the president of the USA be able to qualify for British citizenship and run for office here?
My grandfather was eligible for both - ran in the UK and considered running in Tennessee.
The father is a mercurial risk-taker, who builds up the business from nothing. The son is a dutiful plodder, who keeps the business going but does not innovate. The grandson is a feckless wastrel who thinks poverty is somebody else's problem and pisses it away.
Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.
No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.
Very very dumb. If true.
Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
It's a last throw of the dice. He knows he has almost no chance. So why not.
One thing I learned from the 2015 election was the traction fox-hunting has with people AGAINST FOX HUNTING, it is possible the pledge to repeal the hunting Act cost the GE for Cameron.
I dismissed this idea at the time, I am sure, in retrospect, I was wrong. Too many people mentioned it. No future Tory leader should even talk about it. The fox hunters will vote for them, anyway.
Sure it is a throw of the dice, but is this really the best throw he could think of? He's experienced enough to know how his comments would be reported, he cannot whinge about that.
As you say, better to just not even talk about it, or muddle better if asked.
I don't understand the Electoral Calculus seat projection on tonight's YouGov.
Is it really likely that the BRX vote will be more efficiently distributed than the Con vote? Surely all history of 3rd parties tells us this isn't the case.
In contrast Flavible seat projection for tonight's YouGov is:
Con 202, BRX 160, Lab 119, LD 96 - which looks far more realistic.
Nobody knows how the Brexit vote will be distributed. The seat models were not built for a situation where the top two parties got 80% to one where the same two parties are now sub 40%, and the new top party didn't stand last time.
The Brexit vote might be really efficiently distributed, and result in them scooping up 200+ seats. Or it might be really inefficiently spread, and they end up sub 75. No-one knows.
The father is a mercurial risk-taker, who builds up the business from nothing. The son is a dutiful plodder, who keeps the business going but does not innovate. The grandson is a feckless wastrel who thinks poverty is somebody else's problem and pisses it away.
I've seen the son step being instead the one who expands the business, before passing along to the feckless grandson. So claimed a grandson I know who was keen to stress the 2 steps had been reversed in his family's case.
He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.
Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.
Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.
One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
Mr Bean is even more famous internationally. It does not mean that he would be a good UKPM.
The final Tory collapse will come the other side of the next election. Watching Corbyn crash and burn, to be followed by Johnson, will be entirely delicious.
The decline of the Labour share takes away the threat of PM Corbyn, one of the Torys stronger cards.
Yes indeed. And a chance for the LibDems to avoid the Labour ‘keep the Tories out’ squeeze.
Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?
That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
Yes. I think they should have had spare days for the first round, not just the semi-finals and final.
Right, or switch the venue if persistent rain is forecast 48 hours out. The washouts in the early days of the competition were all forecasted.
They made a big mistake IMO in scheduling matches in Cardiff, Bristol and Taunton for early June, the wettest part of the country and the wettest time of year in summer.
Fair point. There was once a plan to play cricket matches at the Olympic Stadium in Stratford. What happened to that? East London is one of the driest parts of the country.
Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.
No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.
Very very dumb. If true.
Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
It's a last throw of the dice. He knows he has almost no chance. So why not.
One thing I learned from the 2015 election was the traction fox-hunting has with people AGAINST FOX HUNTING, it is possible the pledge to repeal the hunting Act cost the GE for Cameron.
I dismissed this idea at the time, I am sure, in retrospect, I was wrong. Too many people mentioned it. No future Tory leader should even talk about it. The fox hunters will vote for them, anyway.
That is true but the Cons don't only need their votes they need them to be out on the streets for them as well.
That has been the reason behind all the hunting announcements.
It seems counterproductive though. It gets those ones out, but from the last time it came up it just annoys a whole bunch of other Tories, who either oppose it, or just don't want people banging on about it to them.
Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.
No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.
Very very dumb. If true.
Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
It's a last throw of the dice. He knows he has almost no chance. So why not.
One thing I learned from the 2015 election was the traction fox-hunting has with people AGAINST FOX HUNTING, it is possible the pledge to repeal the hunting Act cost the GE for Cameron.
I dismissed this idea at the time, I am sure, in retrospect, I was wrong. Too many people mentioned it. No future Tory leader should even talk about it. The fox hunters will vote for them, anyway.
That is true but the Cons don't only need their votes they need them to be out on the streets for them as well.
That has been the reason behind all the hunting announcements.
It seems counterproductive though. It gets those ones out, but from the last time it came up it just annoys a whole bunch of other Tories, who either oppose it, or just don't want people banging on about it to them.
Oh absolutely. No one was more shocked by May's announcement than the hunting community.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.
He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.
Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.
I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).
My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.
But I guess we'll see...
Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
I think that's the most likely scenario.
Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
A Sanders withdrawal would boost Warren?
The winning Dem platform I think is the one that moves Trump into the field he doesn’t want to fight in. A perception his policies benefit the rich most of all, for example. I suspect Warrens too radical policy platform would play into Trumps hands, and the party should thoroughly test it. Funding campaign promises with tax hike on the rich that won’t bring the proposed funding in. Too far on healthcare, not just too quickly but maybe simply too far for mainstream America
If nominee is Harris, Would the Sanders/Warren support get behind Harris, in contrast to how they did not seem energised by Hilary?
Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?
That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
Yes. I think they should have had spare days for the first round, not just the semi-finals and final.
Right, or switch the venue if persistent rain is forecast 48 hours out. The washouts in the early days of the competition were all forecasted.
They made a big mistake IMO in scheduling matches in Cardiff, Bristol and Taunton for early June, the wettest part of the country and the wettest time of year in summer.
It's a good tournament. It is such a shame it has been ghettoized on Sky. Otherwise the whole country would be talking about it. Sad.
Yes, it’s a great tournament. I think England matches really ought to be Blue Riband events and reserved for free-to-air. I have Sky so have watched most of the games but I think the national team in the national summer sport should be on terrestrial telly.
Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.
No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.
Very very dumb. If true.
Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
It's a last throw of the dice. He knows he has almost no chance. So why not.
One thing I learned from the 2015 election was the traction fox-hunting has with people AGAINST FOX HUNTING, it is possible the pledge to repeal the hunting Act cost the GE for Cameron.
I dismissed this idea at the time, I am sure, in retrospect, I was wrong. Too many people mentioned it. No future Tory leader should even talk about it. The fox hunters will vote for them, anyway.
That is true but the Cons don't only need their votes they need them to be out on the streets for them as well.
That has been the reason behind all the hunting announcements.
It seems counterproductive though. It gets those ones out, but from the last time it came up it just annoys a whole bunch of other Tories, who either oppose it, or just don't want people banging on about it to them.
Oh absolutely. No one was more shocked by May's announcement than the hunting community.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.
He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.
Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.
I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).
My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.
But I guess we'll see...
Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
I think that's the most likely scenario.
Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
A Sanders withdrawal would boost Warren?
The winning Dem platform I think is the one that moves Trump into the field he doesn’t want to fight in. A perception his policies benefit the rich most of all, for example. I suspect Warrens too radical policy platform would play into Trumps hands, and the party should thoroughly test it. Funding campaign promises with tax hike on the rich that won’t bring the proposed funding in. Too far on healthcare, not just too quickly but maybe simply too far for mainstream America
If nominee is Harris, Would the Sanders/Warren support get behind Harris, in contrast to how they did not seem energised by Hilary?
I think Harris is a good Democratic candidate. Based on the Barr hearing and the first debate, I think she would really get under Trump's skin.
"President Trump, I spend more than a decade putting criminals like you behind bars." and that kind of thing.
I also think she could have the same impact on black turnout in places like North Carolina that Obama did.
Re the Left of the Democrats. They were complacent in 2016. They didn't really think Trump could win, and therefore they sat at home and grumped. This time around, they will be far from complacent.
Polls like tonight's YouGov surely increase the chance of Boris getting a Brexit deal through the Commons.
Lab MPs from strong Leave areas are going to think they need Brexit done and out of the way to neutralise the BRX threat - which is a threat to them personally in their own seat.
Really fucking stupid of Hunt about hunting, if true.
No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.
Very very dumb. If true.
Read the transcript... Its not a pledge... He is pro hunt it seems (a pity) but its not goigg to happen
What matters is what people think he said, not what he said. If it becomes generally accepted that one of his priorities seems to be legalising fox hunting, how much does it help him, if at all, with members, and how much does it hurt him with the public to be seen to be banging on about such a topic?
It's a last throw of the dice. He knows he has almost no chance. So why not.
One thing I learned from the 2015 election was the traction fox-hunting has with people AGAINST FOX HUNTING, it is possible the pledge to repeal the hunting Act cost the GE for Cameron.
I dismissed this idea at the time, I am sure, in retrospect, I was wrong. Too many people mentioned it. No future Tory leader should even talk about it. The fox hunters will vote for them, anyway.
That is true but the Cons don't only need their votes they need them to be out on the streets for them as well.
That has been the reason behind all the hunting announcements.
It seems counterproductive though. It gets those ones out, but from the last time it came up it just annoys a whole bunch of other Tories, who either oppose it, or just don't want people banging on about it to them.
Oh absolutely. No one was more shocked by May's announcement than the hunting community.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.
He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.
Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.
I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).
My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.
But I guess we'll see...
Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
I think that's the most likely scenario.
Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
A Sanders withdrawal would boost Warren?
The winning Dem platform I think is the one that moves Trump into the field he doesn’t want to fight in. A perception his policies benefit the rich most of all, for example. I suspect Warrens too radical policy platform would play into Trumps hands, and the party should thoroughly test it. Funding campaign promises with tax hike on the rich that won’t bring the proposed funding in. Too far on healthcare, not just too quickly but maybe simply too far for mainstream America
If nominee is Harris, Would the Sanders/Warren support get behind Harris, in contrast to how they did not seem energised by Hilary?
Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?
That used to be the rule at previous competitions IIRC.
NZ's point against India is probably going to prove critical.
Yes. I think they should have had spare days for the first round, not just the semi-finals and final.
Right, or switch the venue if persistent rain is forecast 48 hours out. The washouts in the early days of the competition were all forecasted.
They made a big mistake IMO in scheduling matches in Cardiff, Bristol and Taunton for early June, the wettest part of the country and the wettest time of year in summer.
It's a good tournament. It is such a shame it has been ghettoized on Sky. Otherwise the whole country would be talking about it. Sad.
Yes, it’s a great tournament. I think England matches really ought to be Blue Riband events and reserved for free-to-air. I have Sky so have watched most of the games but I think the national team in the national summer sport should be on terrestrial telly.
Yep, it was a terrible error for the ECB to give England games to Sky.
The game in Britain is on a knife edge. It is shedding players and interest in this country. Yet with money and interest from the sub-continent cricket has the potential to become one of THE major global sports after football. But for this it needs global spread, and for that it needs the UK to be a major player and for THAT it needs the sport to thrive here.
This World Cup had the potential to boost the sport, in the UK; the fleeting opportunity has not been taken. A shame.
Polls like tonight's YouGov surely increase the chance of Boris getting a Brexit deal through the Commons.
Lab MPs from strong Leave areas are going to think they need Brexit done and out of the way to neutralise the BRX threat - which is a threat to them personally in their own seat.
Boris cannot bring the WA back unless it has changes, or he will be pilloried by dozens of his own MPs. So if he doesn't get changes, or he does but it does not convince the spartans, he needs at least a couple of dozen more Lab MPs given some who backed the WA last time may not anymore, and he'll probably be another MP down after August 1st.
For those asking how we recover from this massive catastrophe, our usual strategy is to wait for a non YouGov polling company to release a poll and suddenly things look a lot better in first place (or 2nd with Mori)
Now to clarify I am not saying YouGov is definitely wrong or should be completely ignored. I just have the somewhat controversial opinion that we shouldn't completely ignore the non YouGov pollsters either. I apologise in advance for any anger this line of thinking causes....
Edit: Also just to note YouGov have had us on 19% quite a few times recently (back to end of May) this isn't really out of line with what YouGov have been saying about Labour for over a month now.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.
He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.
Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.
I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).
My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.
But I guess we'll see...
Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
I think that's the most likely scenario.
Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
A Sanders withdrawal would boost Warren?
The winning Dem platform I think is the one that moves Trump into the field he doesn’t want to fight in. A perception his policies benefit the rich most of all, for example. I suspect Warrens too radical policy platform would play into Trumps hands, and the party should thoroughly test it. Funding campaign promises with tax hike on the rich that won’t bring the proposed funding in. Too far on healthcare, not just too quickly but maybe simply too far for mainstream America
If nominee is Harris, Would the Sanders/Warren support get behind Harris, in contrast to how they did not seem energised by Hilary?
Trump fears Biden. No one else.
Then Trump's an idiot. Biden is a boring gaff prone cypher who's a decade past his sell by date. He can't debate and he can't inspire. Allegedly he fires up Democrats in the rust belt, but there isn't any actual evidence that the rust belt is chock full of people who want a President who's unable to remember the end to the story he started telling.
Aren't YouGov typically showing lower Lab ratings than the others?
YouGov got LAB to within 1% at the Euros - far better than all but one of the other pollsters some of which overstated the party by 10%+
YouGov are the best for modelling Labour in European elections on current evidence.
Survation is the pollster you want for a general election though.
If you are going on the best in the previous system, although I would argue that has shown itself to be flawed previously with best pollsters often losing out in the next election.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.
He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.
Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.
I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).
My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.
But I guess we'll see...
Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
I think that's the most likely scenario.
Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
A Sanders withdrawal would boost Warren?
The winning Dem platform I think is the one that moves Trump into the field he doesn’t want to fight in. A perception his policies benefit the rich most of all, for example. I suspect Warrens too radical policy platform would play into Trumps hands, and the party should thoroughly test it. Funding campaign promises with tax hike on the rich that won’t bring the proposed funding in. Too far on healthcare, not just too quickly but maybe simply too far for mainstream America
If nominee is Harris, Would the Sanders/Warren support get behind Harris, in contrast to how they did not seem energised by Hilary?
Trump fears Biden. No one else.
Trump’s thoughts on the Democratic race, despite his rather desperate efforts to make himself some kind of arbiter, are not particularly relevant.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.
He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.
Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.
I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).
My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.
But I guess we'll see...
Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
I think that's the most likely scenario.
Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
A Sanders withdrawal would boost Warren?
The winning Dem platform I think is the one that moves Trump into the field he doesn’t want to fight in. A perception his policies benefit the rich most of all, for example. I suspect Warrens too radical policy platform would play into Trumps hands, and the party should thoroughly test it. Funding campaign promises with tax hike on the rich that won’t bring the proposed funding in. Too far on healthcare, not just too quickly but maybe simply too far for mainstream America
If nominee is Harris, Would the Sanders/Warren support get behind Harris, in contrast to how they did not seem energised by Hilary?
Trump fears Biden. No one else.
Then Trump's an idiot. Biden is a boring gaff prone cypher who's a decade past his sell by date. He can't debate and he can't inspire. Allegedly he fires up Democrats in the rust belt, but there isn't any actual evidence that the rust belt is chock full of people who want a President who's unable to remember the end to the story he started telling.
So *that's* why he always tells the same story about the waiter
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.
I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).
My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.
But I guess we'll see...
Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
I think that's the most likely scenario.
Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
If nominee is Harris, Would the Sanders/Warren support get behind Harris, in contrast to how they did not seem energised by Hilary?
I think Harris is a good Democratic candidate. Based on the Barr hearing and the first debate, I think she would really get under Trump's skin.
"President Trump, I spend more than a decade putting criminals like you behind bars." and that kind of thing.
I also think she could have the same impact on black turnout in places like North Carolina that Obama did.
Re the Left of the Democrats. They were complacent in 2016. They didn't really think Trump could win, and therefore they sat at home and grumped. This time around, they will be far from complacent.
Another interesting aspect of this election, two things from 2016. Awareness now of foreign interference in the election, using new media. But also, lesson learnt from Brexit ref, the use of analytics from the mountains of data social media have built up on us all, such as when you have 2 billion users, trends become very clear. Surely this is superior to blanket advertising, so will be used by everyone to tailor and target the message that voter most wants to hear? Are there clear laws and policing of what data can be harvested, how it is done and used?
Comments
Second time's the charm?
Labour polling 4th is appalling midterm for them.
But the left have to hold on to their messiah. Bonkers.
(And by complete fucking disaster I mean on a scale unimaginable to most normal people)
Given that I am not him, of course I will not deny it, because I AM NOT HIM.
How thick do you have to be, not to see that obviousness? Clearly, as thick as YOU. Get a life. A different life.
He should stop
Next topic.
On the whole we are either hard working people, who take an interest in our locality, the country in which we live and in the UK. Include in this group those who have now retired having worked in both the UK and other EU countries. I, and I am sure there are tens of thousand UK citizens like me, am broken hearted to see how destructive the politics in the UK has become, and am frankly relieved that I made the choice to move to another country before the Brex-shit hit the fan.
The kind of humour Hague used to deploy.
Next topic. Agreed.
No one in the hunting world wants or needs this. There is sufficient motivation to vote Cons given the potential for Lab to tighten the Hunting Act s it is.
Very very dumb. If true.
Also UKIP 2015++ ?
I preferred James O'Brien's anti-Blair chuntering fucknuts comment but it has been deleted.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1146507509785604097
I warm to the fact she is house proud, and felt monetary value of the damage he had done. On the other, accidents do happen, we don’t know the actual circumstances, or nature of apology etc but you shouldn’t lose it with someone whose suffered genuine accident, should you?
* descended from Emma Stone’s character. Her husband was a Plantagenet, which gives us our link to the royals
One thing I learned from the 2015 election was the traction fox-hunting has with people AGAINST FOX HUNTING, it is possible the pledge to repeal the hunting Act cost the GE for Cameron.
I dismissed this idea at the time, I am sure, in retrospect, I was wrong. Too many people mentioned it. No future Tory leader should even talk about it. The fox hunters will vote for them, anyway.
Still, there are probably many twists and turns to come. It's entirely possible that a tier two or tier three candidate could break out.
With Brexit having most seats we'd have Prime Minister Farage to boot.
Has there been a recent time in which the PM of the UK would also qualify to run for President of the USA and the president of the USA be able to qualify for British citizenship and run for office here?
How hard to lean on the idea Labour are the target, and that they would (on some polls at least) have a shot at the top vote share.
That has been the reason behind all the hunting announcements.
The father is a mercurial risk-taker, who builds up the business from nothing.
The son is a dutiful plodder, who keeps the business going but does not innovate.
The grandson is a feckless wastrel who thinks poverty is somebody else's problem and pisses it away.
As you say, better to just not even talk about it, or muddle better if asked.
CDU/CSU 25%
Greens 25%
SPD 13%
AfD 13%
Linke 8%
FDP 7%
Others 8%
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
The Brexit vote might be really efficiently distributed, and result in them scooping up 200+ seats. Or it might be really inefficiently spread, and they end up sub 75. No-one knows.
Now we wait for Green/Labour crossover...
The winning Dem platform I think is the one that moves Trump into the field he doesn’t want to fight in. A perception his policies benefit the rich most of all, for example. I suspect Warrens too radical policy platform would play into Trumps hands, and the party should thoroughly test it. Funding campaign promises with tax hike on the rich that won’t bring the proposed funding in. Too far on healthcare, not just too quickly but maybe simply too far for mainstream America
If nominee is Harris, Would the Sanders/Warren support get behind Harris, in contrast to how they did not seem energised by Hilary?
https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1146544123219972098?s=20
https://twitter.com/luqmankhan555/status/1146500761343463424
"President Trump, I spend more than a decade putting criminals like you behind bars." and that kind of thing.
I also think she could have the same impact on black turnout in places like North Carolina that Obama did.
Re the Left of the Democrats. They were complacent in 2016. They didn't really think Trump could win, and therefore they sat at home and grumped. This time around, they will be far from complacent.
Lab MPs from strong Leave areas are going to think they need Brexit done and out of the way to neutralise the BRX threat - which is a threat to them personally in their own seat.
The game in Britain is on a knife edge. It is shedding players and interest in this country. Yet with money and interest from the sub-continent cricket has the potential to become one of THE major global sports after football. But for this it needs global spread, and for that it needs the UK to be a major player and for THAT it needs the sport to thrive here.
This World Cup had the potential to boost the sport, in the UK; the fleeting opportunity has not been taken. A shame.
For those asking how we recover from this massive catastrophe, our usual strategy is to wait for a non YouGov polling company to release a poll and suddenly things look a lot better in first place (or 2nd with Mori)
Now to clarify I am not saying YouGov is definitely wrong or should be completely ignored. I just have the somewhat controversial opinion that we shouldn't completely ignore the non YouGov pollsters either. I apologise in advance for any anger this line of thinking causes....
Edit: Also just to note YouGov have had us on 19% quite a few times recently (back to end of May) this isn't really out of line with what YouGov have been saying about Labour for over a month now.
However voters see Boris as best to be PM, followed by Hunt, Farage and Corbyn
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7210483/Voters-believe-Brexit-Party-leader-Nigel-Farage-honest-party-leaders.html
Survation is the pollster you want for a general election though.
If you are going on the best in the previous system, although I would argue that has shown itself to be flawed previously with best pollsters often losing out in the next election.