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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden pushed into third place in Iowa – the first state to dec
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden pushed into third place in Iowa – the first state to decide
NEW IOWA poll from @davidbinder , via @linkiowa pro-ethanol group, shows a wiiiide open caucus after the first debate:
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Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
It smacks of total desperation. Hunt is losing BADLY.
He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.
Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.
I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).
My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.
But I guess we'll see...
He thought Corbyn was the vehicle, but it is now clear Corbyn is an obstacle, and Labour needs a friendly Remainy face (a face which is secretly hard left as well).
Does he make a move? How does he do it? The prize is slipping away.....
He'd only murder bourgeois grey squirrels.
That said, it is pretty hilarious to see the British public stir into life once the extension kicked in, and finally notice 'Oh hey, did you know there is a centrish-lefty party that is backing us staying in the EU wholeheartedly? I never realised it, let's back them'.
BXP 207
CON 160
LAB 150
LD 71
BXP / CON with 100+ majority for, one imagines, a very limited program.
Hunt and Fox...
And here we are. The Indyref changed everything. The SNP are now the dominant Scottish centre-left party, and the Tories have seized the role of centre-right Unionism. There is no room for Labour, and there is no obvious return path to power, for them.
Why should England/Wales be different to Scotland, following another game-changing referendum?
It is clear one party will seize the mantle of centre-left Remainerism, and oppose the Brexiteers; it is far from clear why this should obviously be Labour.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kennedy_III
Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
But I struggle to see who is replacing Labour in many places in England. Are the LDs really about to make a breakthrough in all those hardcore Labour inner cities? When you consider how so many of its MPs and others are acting as though they are already the remain party, and ire is being increasingly focused on the person of Corbyn, I retain skepticism that many will not flock back to Labour if it replaces him with someone with the 'correct' view on the EU, particularly when they would have to look very hard in the mirror and say they are prepared to risk yet another Tory win (or BXP/Tory win again, there's no difference between them on the Brexit issue anymore).
Who are England's the SNP?
The Thatchers managed it in a single generation.
I still think it likeliest that LDs score in the 50ish MP range, and Brexit in the couple of dozen, and that Labour wlli benefit from FPTP more than the Tories at these levels, but that could just be a natural instinct to go against predicting the extremer outcomes. Who knows?
It’s almost as if not carrying out a referendum result would be consequence free.. I remember the scoffing on here about old people and their Zimmer frames, going on strike by not using their free bus passes...
You think? The world has moved on. And while I don’t think fox hunting should be against the law, I don’t see how rescinding the legislation will be seen as anything but a monumental FU to city dwellers and the young.
Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.
I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.
The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.
Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.
He is close to Warren though so will likely back her this time (much as Obama backed Kerry in 2004)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kennedy_III
When are Labour members and union activists going to wake up? Jezza is leading you to total defeat.
Still. To equal their May 2009 nadir is quite some achievement.
How on earth are the Tories going to use the old Labour tax bombshell playbook after this campaign? I wouldn't be surprised if Boris has actually spent more than McDonnell.
The BP and Cons would clean up even more in a pact, but it's win/lose for them. The Conservatives have too many MPs to lose and the agendas are different enough that it would probably destroy their party.
Jezza will have to have 'People's Vote' tattooed across his forehead in block capitals to turn this around.
I also know at least 1 Tory member who is a Remainer and Association Chairman and might have voted for Hunt but is very anti fox hunting, this probably pushes him towards Boris
Forget the merits of the issue - Con members number 1 priority is to win the GE. And legalising foxhunting will cost votes for certain.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1146529155426803712
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1146513963473129478
As Nick Cohen has said, the anger 'aint all in the BXP/Brexiteer wing of this debate.
Is it really likely that the BRX vote will be more efficiently distributed than the Con vote? Surely all history of 3rd parties tells us this isn't the case.
In contrast Flavible seat projection for tonight's YouGov is:
Con 202, BRX 160, Lab 119, LD 96 - which looks far more realistic.
Q. Do you intend to legalise fox hunting?
A. Liam is a great friend of mine. Next question please
Q. But...
A. Sorry, 1 question only...
It will be a fascinating struggle. The Tories should be scared. All Labour needs is a decent enough leader with a believable Remainer background and they will sweep to a large polling lead.
Of course Labour might persist with their insanity, and then who knows.
He'd be done, a laughing stock, and have to resign.
She looks... worn