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Times they are a changing...DecrepitJohnL said:
The LibDems are irrelevant at Westminster because they have only a handful of MPs. They are the fifth party (with the DUP's C&S agreement putting them a nose ahead).Foxy said:
Brexit make coalition with the Tories impossible, Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible. Corbyn and his clique are easier to change. Either way, lessons have been learnt from the previous Westminster Coalition. Worth noting that in devolved parliaments and local government, working with other parties is unremarkable. Why should Westminster be different? We do not need to restrict ourselves to the two seatbelts on offer.kle4 said:I think stodge makes an important point about the lds and coalition and not perpetuating paralysis, though I think he underestimates the trouble they could get in. The lds would prefer not to have to even deal with anyone else, in a way an extreme view as a rejection of compromise, because they get punished for doing so. But it will probably be unavoidable. What the members do this time as they cut deals will be interesting.
As the third party, LibDems would be on almost every news and current affairs programme for balance. Now they are not.
Nick Clegg's disastrous coalition agreement, where he prostituted the party's programme and principles for an AV referendum which he promptly lost, was one nail in the LibDems' coffin but the other is the rise of the SNP, who have five times as many MPs. That is the reality and worrying about yellow dresses and reaching out to other parties misses the point that until there is a recovery, they will remain irrelevant.
What they need is another Chat Show Charlie, and they ain't got one.
LDs are likely to be the third party in Westminster after the next election.0 -
Going into the same division lobby as the Tories is voting with the Tories.TheJezziah said:
I imagine Corbyn rebels would actually be voting with the Tories.kle4 said:
I'll bet PM Corbyn would see it that way if people rebel against him in office. The demands of office and the job have seen Corbyn become a lot more like a regular politician than he would admit.TheJezziah said:
Hmm, bit of fake news there... rebelling against Labour isn't voting for the Tories...ydoethur said:
Unlike Corbyn, who voted for them 428 times.old_labour said:
She was joined at the hip to them for 5 years. Her record speaks for itself.Gallowgate said:
Everyone who isn’t a Corbynista should join the Tories am I right??old_labour said:
Her natural home is in the Tory Party going by her record. I suspect she has not become a member because she is too grand for them.ydoethur said:
I can understand why under those circumstances you would find her annoying. A refusal to go to her natural home in the Labour Party must rankle.old_labour said:Whenever Jo Swinson is on TV, I have to press the mute button. I find her screeching voice very disagreeable plus she comes across as supercilious.
I think Corbyn has actually voted with the Tories, ID cards might be a rare example but people confuse rebelling against Labour with voting with the Conservatives.
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Maitlis does a superb job taking apart the utter nonsense Tories are spouting about 'no deal', in interviews with Green and Hands on last night's Newsnight. I don't see their lines surviving the pressure that they'll come under as and when the fateful day approaches.0
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Winston Churchill?TheJezziah said:
James Cleverly was waxing lyrical about a terrorist being one of his hero's not so long ago.... turns out the people in uniforms aren't always the good guys.JackW said:
Corbyn was joined at the hip for more than 40 years with terrorists and rogue states. His record speaks for itself.old_labour said:
She was joined at the hip to them for 5 years. Her record speaks for itself.Gallowgate said:
Everyone who isn’t a Corbynista should join the Tories am I right??old_labour said:
Her natural home is in the Tory Party going by her record. I suspect she has not become a member because she is too grand for them.ydoethur said:
I can understand why under those circumstances you would find her annoying. A refusal to go to her natural home in the Labour Party must rankle.old_labour said:Whenever Jo Swinson is on TV, I have to press the mute button. I find her screeching voice very disagreeable plus she comes across as supercilious.
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Of the 2 LD members I am linked to on Facebook one has gone for Davey and one for Swinson no make of that what you will.
Is there any difference between them bar Davey might be a little more fiscally conservative?0 -
Where's the evidence that "Corbyn really wants to be PM"? He didn't want the job of leader in the first place. Wanting his party to remain in the hands of the Left isn't the same as wanting personally to be PM; his political career up until becoming leader has been devoid of noticeable ambition.edmundintokyo said:
I know they've been saying that but I wonder if they'd really insist.Foxy said:Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible.
If Corbyn is in charge of Labour, you need go give up fairly impressive concessions to persuade Labour to change Corbyn. OTOH Corbyn really wants to be PM, and probably doesn't care that much either way about many of the LibDems' priorities, so the LibDems could get a *lot* of what they want out of a Lab-Lib government. And the corollary of that is that Corbyn would be constrained by what the LibDems thought was OK, so they wouldn't need to worry that he was going to nationalize Morrisons or remove the missiles from Trident and give them to the Palestinians or whatever.1 -
They are if you believe HYUFD's and OGH's reading of the polls that it will be a Brexit election. 2017 didn't work out like that.Foxy said:
Times they are a changing...DecrepitJohnL said:
The LibDems are irrelevant at Westminster because they have only a handful of MPs. They are the fifth party (with the DUP's C&S agreement putting them a nose ahead).Foxy said:
Brexit make coalition with the Tories impossible, Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible. Corbyn and his clique are easier to change. Either way, lessons have been learnt from the previous Westminster Coalition. Worth noting that in devolved parliaments and local government, working with other parties is unremarkable. Why should Westminster be different? We do not need to restrict ourselves to the two seatbelts on offer.kle4 said:I think stodge makes an important point about the lds and coalition and not perpetuating paralysis, though I think he underestimates the trouble they could get in. The lds would prefer not to have to even deal with anyone else, in a way an extreme view as a rejection of compromise, because they get punished for doing so. But it will probably be unavoidable. What the members do this time as they cut deals will be interesting.
As the third party, LibDems would be on almost every news and current affairs programme for balance. Now they are not.
Nick Clegg's disastrous coalition agreement, where he prostituted the party's programme and principles for an AV referendum which he promptly lost, was one nail in the LibDems' coffin but the other is the rise of the SNP, who have five times as many MPs. That is the reality and worrying about yellow dresses and reaching out to other parties misses the point that until there is a recovery, they will remain irrelevant.
What they need is another Chat Show Charlie, and they ain't got one.
LDs are likely to be the third party in Westminster after the next election.0 -
That was my point. That confusion is how parties frame any rebellion and once he is in power I see no reason why Corbyn would do differently, even if it means what he did retrospectively is typified as voting with the ToriesTheJezziah said:
I imagine Corbyn rebels would actually be voting with the Tories.kle4 said:
I'll bet PM Corbyn would see it that way if people rebel against him in office. The demands of office and the job have seen Corbyn become a lot more like a regular politician than he would admit.TheJezziah said:
Hmm, bit of fake news there... rebelling against Labour isn't voting for the Tories...ydoethur said:
Unlike Corbyn, who voted for them 428 times.old_labour said:
She was joined at the hip to them for 5 years. Her record speaks for itself.Gallowgate said:
Everyone who isn’t a Corbynista should join the Tories am I right??old_labour said:
Her natural home is in the Tory Party going by her record. I suspect she has not become a member because she is too grand for them.ydoethur said:
I can understand why under those circumstances you would find her annoying. A refusal to go to her natural home in the Labour Party must rankle.old_labour said:Whenever Jo Swinson is on TV, I have to press the mute button. I find her screeching voice very disagreeable plus she comes across as supercilious.
I think Corbyn has actually voted with the Tories, ID cards might be a rare example but people confuse rebelling against Labour with voting with the Conservatives.0 -
MikeSmithson said:
Indeed, compared with Boris or the Jew hater you look a giantdavid_herdson said:Mike obviously has far better links to the Lib Dems than me but for what it's worth, I think he's right.
Davey could appear on an election stage within four months, alongside Boris and Corbyn, and look most prime ministerial. I don't think Swinson could. That sort of thing must make some difference.
Don’t jinx it Mike. Was that “you” a typo for “he” or “both”?0 -
Anyone who believes that Corbyn Labour would go into coalition with anyone hasn't been watching the far left very closely. Corbyn himself will have next to no say in how Labour would govern were it to win most seats at the next GE. And he really doesn't want to be PM.edmundintokyo said:
I know they've been saying that but I wonder if they'd really insist.Foxy said:Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible.
If Corbyn is in charge of Labour, you need go give up fairly impressive concessions to persuade Labour to change Corbyn. OTOH Corbyn really wants to be PM, and probably doesn't care that much either way about many of the LibDems' priorities, so the LibDems could get a *lot* of what they want out of a Lab-Lib government. And the corollary of that is that Corbyn would be constrained by what the LibDems thought was OK, so they wouldn't need to worry that he was going to nationalize Morrisons or remove the missiles from Trident and give them to the Palestinians or whatever.
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If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparentFoxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for example.TOPPING said:
One undiscussed factor is that Swindon may be more under threat in her own seat, particularly in a Brexit election.0 -
Such as ID cards, his rebellions such as Iraq were more often against Labour and the Tories.SouthamObserver said:
Going into the same division lobby as the Tories is voting with the Tories.TheJezziah said:
I imagine Corbyn rebels would actually be voting with the Tories.kle4 said:
I'll bet PM Corbyn would see it that way if people rebel against him in office. The demands of office and the job have seen Corbyn become a lot more like a regular politician than he would admit.TheJezziah said:
Hmm, bit of fake news there... rebelling against Labour isn't voting for the Tories...ydoethur said:
Unlike Corbyn, who voted for them 428 times.old_labour said:
She was joined at the hip to them for 5 years. Her record speaks for itself.Gallowgate said:
Everyone who isn’t a Corbynista should join the Tories am I right??old_labour said:
Her natural home is in the Tory Party going by her record. I suspect she has not become a member because she is too grand for them.ydoethur said:
I can understand why under those circumstances you would find her annoying. A refusal to go to her natural home in the Labour Party must rankle.old_labour said:Whenever Jo Swinson is on TV, I have to press the mute button. I find her screeching voice very disagreeable plus she comes across as supercilious.
I think Corbyn has actually voted with the Tories, ID cards might be a rare example but people confuse rebelling against Labour with voting with the Conservatives.0 -
Maybe you're right. But in that case why hasn't he handed over the leadership already?IanB2 said:Where's the evidence that "Corbyn really wants to be PM"? He didn't want the job of leader in the first place. Wanting his party to remain in the hands of the Left isn't the same as wanting personally to be PM; his political career up until becoming leader has been devoid of noticeable ambition.
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No he isn't as he is soon likely to earning hundreds of thousands of dollars in a Wall Street law firmnotme2 said:
A Harvard law graduate with $120,000 of student loan debt is much worse off than a subsistence farming villager in India....edmundintokyo said:
Dunno, it could easily be half; I mean I guess pretty much anyone with a mortgage is going to have negative assets until it's pretty close to paid off, not to mention anyone youngish with student loan debt. It just makes sense for large parts of the population who still have a lot of earning ahead of them to borrow against their future earnings. Then even as you get older, a lot of your wealth should be building up in your pension, and I'm not sure if they count that...TheJezziah said:
Maybe I've badly got the wrong end of this but surely then he would pick a higher percentage... if 50% own nothing then the bottom positive 20 or so would probably still not add up to those top 3...
The tweet itself is badly worded as he implies the whole 50% has no assets (net) but if you click the article it actually says some of those 50% have no assets.
But doesn't this show you how arbitrary and pointless this whole exercise is???
A somewhat less useless way of looking at it is that the top 3 people have (don't bet too much on my maths) basically $1000 per American, which is a sign of fairly humongous inequality, and also feels like something you could be taxing some more without doing too much damage to Jeff's incentive to get up and go into work tomorrow morning. They might also like to consider putting a windfall tax on exceedingly large divorce settlements...0 -
Nelson Mandela.TOPPING said:
Winston Churchill?TheJezziah said:
James Cleverly was waxing lyrical about a terrorist being one of his hero's not so long ago.... turns out the people in uniforms aren't always the good guys.JackW said:
Corbyn was joined at the hip for more than 40 years with terrorists and rogue states. His record speaks for itself.old_labour said:
She was joined at the hip to them for 5 years. Her record speaks for itself.Gallowgate said:
Everyone who isn’t a Corbynista should join the Tories am I right??old_labour said:
Her natural home is in the Tory Party going by her record. I suspect she has not become a member because she is too grand for them.ydoethur said:
I can understand why under those circumstances you would find her annoying. A refusal to go to her natural home in the Labour Party must rankle.old_labour said:Whenever Jo Swinson is on TV, I have to press the mute button. I find her screeching voice very disagreeable plus she comes across as supercilious.
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Although I voted for Ed I’m not sure the country would want yet another PPE from Oxford, which until today I hadn’t thought about.MikeSmithson said:
Indeed, compared with Boris or the Jew hater you look a giantdavid_herdson said:Mike obviously has far better links to the Lib Dems than me but for what it's worth, I think he's right.
Davey could appear on an election stage within four months, alongside Boris and Corbyn, and look most prime ministerial. I don't think Swinson could. That sort of thing must make some difference.0 -
Two more US polls, one of them showing Harris and Warren bouncing, the other not. Confusing:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html0 -
It is like his determination to get no deal that we are often told about by his opponents, he takes lots of actions which show the completely opposite intent but they can read it in his eyes or something...edmundintokyo said:
Maybe you're right. But in that case why hasn't he handed over the leadership already?IanB2 said:Where's the evidence that "Corbyn really wants to be PM"? He didn't want the job of leader in the first place. Wanting his party to remain in the hands of the Left isn't the same as wanting personally to be PM; his political career up until becoming leader has been devoid of noticeable ambition.
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The sensible way for politicians to accept it is to make sure both sides of a referendum are specific implementable propositions, and then write the decision into the legislation as binding - as was done for the AV referendum.kle4 said:
Yes it is. But they wouldn't accept it, they would fight it even after a second vote, I have zero doubt about that. It's a perfectly honourable position to take, and one almost required by their own logic about leaving the EU.IanB2 said:
There is nothing in politics that says you have to agree with the decisions of others, and it is possible to accept a decision without agreeing with it.kle4 said:
They woukdnt. The arguments used to say we should remain apply irrespective of any vote. Theyd probably say theyd accept that but at the moment if parliamentary action their reasoning would require oppositionpartypoliticalorphan said:Stodge comments "The great unasked question of course was whether either or both would accept a second referendum result which again showed a majority to LEAVE the EU."
Surely the Lib Dem hustings are a failure and Lib Dem members are ostriches if the answer to this question is unknown.
Which is why they should not pretend there are any circumstances where they would accept it even though they disagree. Its possible to do that, as you say, but if you talk about leaving the EU like the LDs do, accepting it makes no sense.
Expecting any politician to vote against their own strong convictions is always asking a lot, whatever the balance of public opinion.0 -
That's true but he has been in place 4 years almost and the left would win any contest in the party. Hes clearly not been consumed his entire career by becoming PM but hes gotten so close now, with the tories imploding, he can almost taste it. He says he voted remain which it is said goes against his longstanding position, showing he is willing to bend to retain support (albeit he may not have bent enough).IanB2 said:
Where's the evidence that "Corbyn really wants to be PM"? He didn't want the job of leader in the first place. Wanting his party to remain in the hands of the Left isn't the same as wanting personally to be PM; his political career up until becoming leader has been devoid of noticeable ambition.edmundintokyo said:
I know they've been saying that but I wonder if they'd really insist.Foxy said:Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible.
If Corbyn is in charge of Labour, you need go give up fairly impressive concessions to persuade Labour to change Corbyn. OTOH Corbyn really wants to be PM, and probably doesn't care that much either way about many of the LibDems' priorities, so the LibDems could get a *lot* of what they want out of a Lab-Lib government. And the corollary of that is that Corbyn would be constrained by what the LibDems thought was OK, so they wouldn't need to worry that he was going to nationalize Morrisons or remove the missiles from Trident and give them to the Palestinians or whatever.
Hes not spent his career seeking the top job. But hes tried for 4 years, I doubt he wants that time to be wasted.0 -
Corbyn’s first loyalty is to “the movement”. Right now the movement does not have an alternative around which it can unite because it is hopelessly split, on both Brexit and the anti-Semitism crisis. If Corbyn stands down right now, there’s a big danger the far left will lose control of Labour. And that would be a disaster. So Corbyn stays.edmundintokyo said:
Maybe you're right. But in that case why hasn't he handed over the leadership already?IanB2 said:Where's the evidence that "Corbyn really wants to be PM"? He didn't want the job of leader in the first place. Wanting his party to remain in the hands of the Left isn't the same as wanting personally to be PM; his political career up until becoming leader has been devoid of noticeable ambition.
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Which is why I was pleased to see at the East Midlands hustings other policy areas being discussed rather than Brexit.DecrepitJohnL said:
They are if you believe HYUFD's and OGH's reading of the polls that it will be a Brexit election. 2017 didn't work out like that.Foxy said:
Times they are a changing...DecrepitJohnL said:
The LibDems are irrelevant at Westminster because they have only a handful of MPs. They are the fifth party (with the DUP's C&S agreement putting them a nose ahead).Foxy said:
Brexit make coalition with the Tories impossible, Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible. Corbyn and his clique are easier to change. Either way, lessons have been learnt from the previous Westminster Coalition. Worth noting that in devolved parliaments and local government, working with other parties is unremarkable. Why should Westminster be different? We do not need to restrict ourselves to the two seatbelts on offer.kle4 said:I think stodge makes an important point about the lds and coalition and not perpetuating paralysis, though I think he underestimates the trouble they could get in. The lds would prefer not to have to even deal with anyone else, in a way an extreme view as a rejection of compromise, because they get punished for doing so. But it will probably be unavoidable. What the members do this time as they cut deals will be interesting.
As the third party, LibDems would be on almost every news and current affairs programme for balance. Now they are not.
Nick Clegg's disastrous coalition agreement, where he prostituted the party's programme and principles for an AV referendum which he promptly lost, was one nail in the LibDems' coffin but the other is the rise of the SNP, who have five times as many MPs. That is the reality and worrying about yellow dresses and reaching out to other parties misses the point that until there is a recovery, they will remain irrelevant.
What they need is another Chat Show Charlie, and they ain't got one.
LDs are likely to be the third party in Westminster after the next election.
Elections are each distinct. I don't think 2017 will be repeated, the novelty of Corbyn has worn off.0 -
Does not the GDPR apply ?ydoethur said:
Can't claim credit. It's the Estonian system.Gallowgate said:
Agreed. That sounds very sensible.ydoethur said:
I would only be willing to accept them, even under those circumstances, if I had complete access to the database behind it including a mechanism for seeing who was looking at my data.Gallowgate said:I have no problem with being required to hold government ID as long as you are not required to carry it on your person at all times.
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So Chuka could by the end of the year have been the heir presumptive in three different parties: Labour, Tig/CUK and the LibDems. That surely is a record.HYUFD said:
If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparentFoxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for example.TOPPING said:
One undiscussed factor is that Swindon may be more under threat in her own seat, particularly in a Brexit election.0 -
He rebelled hundreds of times. How many Iraq votes were there?TheJezziah said:
Such as ID cards, his rebellions such as Iraq were more often against Labour and the Tories.SouthamObserver said:
Going into the same division lobby as the Tories is voting with the Tories.TheJezziah said:
I imagine Corbyn rebels would actually be voting with the Tories.kle4 said:
I'll bet PM Corbyn would see it that way if people rebel against him in office. The demands of office and the job have seen Corbyn become a lot more like a regular politician than he would admit.TheJezziah said:
Hmm, bit of fake news there... rebelling against Labour isn't voting for the Tories...ydoethur said:
Unlike Corbyn, who voted for them 428 times.old_labour said:
She was joined at the hip to them for 5 years. Her record speaks for itself.Gallowgate said:
Everyone who isn’t a Corbynista should join the Tories am I right??old_labour said:
Her natural home is in the Tory Party going by her record. I suspect she has not become a member because she is too grand for them.ydoethur said:
I can understand why under those circumstances you would find her annoying. A refusal to go to her natural home in the Labour Party must rankle.old_labour said:Whenever Jo Swinson is on TV, I have to press the mute button. I find her screeching voice very disagreeable plus she comes across as supercilious.
I think Corbyn has actually voted with the Tories, ID cards might be a rare example but people confuse rebelling against Labour with voting with the Conservatives.
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That is just the diehard Remainer extreme equivalent of the diehard Leaver insistence on No Deal.Gallowgate said:If Brexit is a failure, the natural result is going to be the Euro and Schengen. No pressure, Brexiteers.
The average British voter wants neither but instead a Canada style FTA for GB as their first preference and if not Norway style EEA membership as their second preference0 -
Not unexpected, given how recent the debate was.NickPalmer said:Two more US polls, one of them showing Harris and Warren bouncing, the other not. Confusing:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Give it a few days.
I note Harris is below 4 on Betfair, which is just about as short as any candidate has yet been. Seems a bit overdone to me for now, FWIW.0 -
All still showing Biden ahead but by a narrower marginNickPalmer said:Two more US polls, one of them showing Harris and Warren bouncing, the other not. Confusing:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html0 -
0
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In 2017 most Remainers voted Labour as they thought Corbyn would stop Brexit and back EUref2 or at least EEA and most Leavers voted Tory as they thought the Tories would deliver Brexit (as indeed Corbyn promised Labour Leavers)DecrepitJohnL said:
They are if you believe HYUFD's and OGH's reading of the polls that it will be a Brexit election. 2017 didn't work out like that.Foxy said:
Times they are a changing...DecrepitJohnL said:
The LibDems are irrelevant at Westminster because they have only a handful of MPs. They are the fifth party (with the DUP's C&S agreement putting them a nose ahead).Foxy said:
Brexit make coalition with the Tories impossible, Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible. Corbyn and his clique are easier to change. Either way, lessons have been learnt from the previous Westminster Coalition. Worth noting that in devolved parliaments and local government, working with other parties is unremarkable. Why should Westminster be different? We do not need to restrict ourselves to the two seatbelts on offer.kle4 said:I think stodge makes an important point about the lds and coalition and not perpetuating paralysis, though I think he underestimates the trouble they could get in. The lds would prefer not to have to even deal with anyone else, in a way an extreme view as a rejection of compromise, because they get punished for doing so. But it will probably be unavoidable. What the members do this time as they cut deals will be interesting.
As the third party, LibDems would be on almost every news and current affairs programme for balance. Now they are not.
Nick Clegg's disastrous coalition agreement, where he prostituted the party's programme and principles for an AV referendum which he promptly lost, was one nail in the LibDems' coffin but the other is the rise of the SNP, who have five times as many MPs. That is the reality and worrying about yellow dresses and reaching out to other parties misses the point that until there is a recovery, they will remain irrelevant.
What they need is another Chat Show Charlie, and they ain't got one.
LDs are likely to be the third party in Westminster after the next election.0 -
Err, no he wouldn't!HYUFD said:
If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparentFoxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for example.TOPPING said:
One undiscussed factor is that Swindon may be more under threat in her own seat, particularly in a Brexit election.
You don't have a very good understanding of other parties.1 -
I don't know about Ed though as he is almost invisible I assume he is useless. Swinson is a nasty piece of work , she is a champion liar and will be out on her erse at the next election.Mysticrose said:1st like Jo?
I don't know. As it happens a few hours before this thread I did cast my vote for Jo. Like Mike says, I have no firm views either way. Both Ed and Jo would make good leaders.0 -
Which is pretty silly, as it implies that a centre party cannot accommodate anyone even slightly to the right of centre.TOPPING said:
It is characteristic of the two major parties under our FPTP system to believe that they have an automatic right to be the two largest coalitions of interests. It is also incredibly arrogant and undemocratic.1 -
Nope - it's data for necessary business purposes so GDPR wouldn't apply.Nigelb said:
Does not the GDPR apply ?ydoethur said:
Can't claim credit. It's the Estonian system.Gallowgate said:
Agreed. That sounds very sensible.ydoethur said:
I would only be willing to accept them, even under those circumstances, if I had complete access to the database behind it including a mechanism for seeing who was looking at my data.Gallowgate said:I have no problem with being required to hold government ID as long as you are not required to carry it on your person at all times.
And I think it's perfectly acceptable that I can check exactly who looked at my data - for fraud prevention if nothing else...0 -
Yes but he has a chance of winning a LD leadership election which he would not have done in Corbyn and Momentum dominated Labour now.DecrepitJohnL said:
So Chuka could by the end of the year have been the heir presumptive in three different parties: Labour, Tig/CUK and the LibDems. That surely is a record.HYUFD said:
If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparentFoxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for example.TOPPING said:
One undiscussed factor is that Swindon may be more under threat in her own seat, particularly in a Brexit election.
CUK would be lucky to have any MPs left to be heir apparent0 -
Its failed because no deal is now seen as the only option. Even the brexiteers who saw the light as it were and backed a deal are now left hoping the eu are massively bluffing and the Boris is a very well disguised genius.TheScreamingEagles said:A Leaver tweets
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/11459538610661990470 -
This just illustrates the sloppiness of your thinking: there is no such thing as an "average British voter".HYUFD said:
That is just the diehard Remainer extreme equivalent of the diehard Leaver insistence on No Deal.Gallowgate said:If Brexit is a failure, the natural result is going to be the Euro and Schengen. No pressure, Brexiteers.
The average British voter wants neither but instead a Canada style FTA for GB as their first preference and if not Norway style EEA membership as their second preference1 -
On topic, but with more information than any but the most curious will require, a blog with the detailed results of an (informal) LD membership survey:
http://blog.hnjsamuels.co.uk/0 -
I think your last paragraph is a LD specific issue - they built their voters by being the “safe lefties” for ex-Tories and “really us but don’t want to admit it” for ex-Labourkle4 said:
The lesson learned is we wont ever have coalition again, which is unfortunate as it cuts off a potential option.Foxy said:
Brexit make coalition with the Tories impossible, Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible. Corbyn and his clique are easier to change. Either way, lessons have been learnt from the previous Westminster Coalition. Worth noting that in devolved parliaments and local government, working with other parties is unremarkable. Why should Westminster be different? We do not need to restrict ourselves to the two death cults on offer.kle4 said:I think stodge makes an important point about the lds and coalition and not perpetuating paralysis, though I think he underestimates the trouble they could get in. The lds would prefer not to have to even deal with anyone else, in a way an extreme view as a rejection of compromise, because they get punished for doing so. But it will probably be unavoidable. What the members do this time as they cut deals will be interesting.
And I wasnt suggesting there needed to be coalition, just that at Westminster the sides dont want to work together unless it is one side doing what the other wants without reciprocity.
You're right it happens elsewhere but the lds at Westminster are no less unrealistic than the big two in, in effect, disavowing cooperation even though it may be necessary.
Dont believe me? If the lds said theyd work with anyone judging an issue on its merits case by case theyd be criticised, ultimately itd come down to who they propped up, coalition or no.
Last time half their support disappeared before there was even a chance to see if the wins outweighed the losses. Even less formal cooperation would see large amounts of support jump ship.
That’s fine in opposition but when forced to choose...0 -
Watch her squirm here on LBC as she lies through her teeth, gets confused on her hypocrisy.MikeSmithson said:
Indeed, compared with Boris or the Jew hater you look a giantdavid_herdson said:Mike obviously has far better links to the Lib Dems than me but for what it's worth, I think he's right.
Davey could appear on an election stage within four months, alongside Boris and Corbyn, and look most prime ministerial. I don't think Swinson could. That sort of thing must make some difference.
Car crash interview of a fool.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/live-and-in-pieces/0 -
Opinion polls before the referendum showed most people did not give a damn about the EU and the 2017 election results are compatible with that view. Maybe you are right about Boris's snap GE2019 but this time it is different is historically an expensive phrase.HYUFD said:
In 2017 most Remainers voted Labour as they thought Corbyn would stop Brexit and back EUref2 or at least EEA and most Leavers voted Tory as they thought the Tories would deliver Brexit (as indeed Corbyn promised Labour Leavers)DecrepitJohnL said:
They are if you believe HYUFD's and OGH's reading of the polls that it will be a Brexit election. 2017 didn't work out like that.Foxy said:
Times they are a changing...DecrepitJohnL said:
The LibDems are irrelevant at Westminster because they have only a handful of MPs. They are the fifth party (with the DUP's C&S agreement putting them a nose ahead).Foxy said:
Brexit make coalition with the Tories impossible, Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible. Corbyn and his clique are easier to change. Either way, lessons have been learnt from the previous Westminster Coalition. Worth noting that in devolved parliaments and local government, working with other parties is unremarkable. Why should Westminster be different? We do not need to restrict ourselves to the two seatbelts on offer.kle4 said:I think stodge makes an important point about the lds and coalition and not perpetuating paralysis, though I think he underestimates the trouble they could get in. The lds would prefer not to have to even deal with anyone else, in a way an extreme view as a rejection of compromise, because they get punished for doing so. But it will probably be unavoidable. What the members do this time as they cut deals will be interesting.
As the third party, LibDems would be on almost every news and current affairs programme for balance. Now they are not.
Nick Clegg's disastrous coalition agreement, where he prostituted the party's programme and principles for an AV referendum which he promptly lost, was one nail in the LibDems' coffin but the other is the rise of the SNP, who have five times as many MPs. That is the reality and worrying about yellow dresses and reaching out to other parties misses the point that until there is a recovery, they will remain irrelevant.
What they need is another Chat Show Charlie, and they ain't got one.
LDs are likely to be the third party in Westminster after the next election.0 -
The Tories little helpers are going nowhereFoxy said:
Times they are a changing...DecrepitJohnL said:
The LibDems are irrelevant at Westminster because they have only a handful of MPs. They are the fifth party (with the DUP's C&S agreement putting them a nose ahead).Foxy said:
Brexit make coalition with the Tories impossible, Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible. Corbyn and his clique are easier to change. Either way, lessons have been learnt from the previous Westminster Coalition. Worth noting that in devolved parliaments and local government, working with other parties is unremarkable. Why should Westminster be different? We do not need to restrict ourselves to the two seatbelts on offer.kle4 said:I think stodge makes an important point about the lds and coalition and not perpetuating paralysis, though I think he underestimates the trouble they could get in. The lds would prefer not to have to even deal with anyone else, in a way an extreme view as a rejection of compromise, because they get punished for doing so. But it will probably be unavoidable. What the members do this time as they cut deals will be interesting.
As the third party, LibDems would be on almost every news and current affairs programme for balance. Now they are not.
Nick Clegg's disastrous coalition agreement, where he prostituted the party's programme and principles for an AV referendum which he promptly lost, was one nail in the LibDems' coffin but the other is the rise of the SNP, who have five times as many MPs. That is the reality and worrying about yellow dresses and reaching out to other parties misses the point that until there is a recovery, they will remain irrelevant.
What they need is another Chat Show Charlie, and they ain't got one.
LDs are likely to be the third party in Westminster after the next election.0 -
-
Hardly surprising, the Tories having taken our national reputation to new depths.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
As the original proponent of ID cards in the Commons (I was fresh from Switzerland, where people of all political persuasions think them as natural as passports), I think most politicians don't really care one way or the other. Blair was against them when I proposed them, the LibDem spokesman voted with me. Later on both of them reversed, but everyone was just being tactical. I remember debating Chris Huhne in a London student meeting. Afterwards I reminded him that it had previously had LibDem support. He chuckled cheerfully and said "Oh, well, that's politics!"kle4 said:
I hope he maintains that stance rather than, like some politicians, end up doing basically the same thing only bowcits a wretched Corbyn measure.Cyclefree said:
Corbyn voting against ID cards is one of the things I will applaud him for. ID cards were a wretched Blair measure.
I can't conceivably imagine Corbyn or anyone else insisting on them in a tight Parliamentary situation. I expect they'll come in at some stage as a means of ID for practical reasons, but it won't be on Corbyn's list at all.0 -
Also in 2017, many voters were in a Conservative/Labour seat with no chance of another party winning, so chose their best out of those two.DecrepitJohnL said:
Opinion polls before the referendum showed most people did not give a damn about the EU and the 2017 election results are compatible with that view. Maybe you are right about Boris's snap GE2019 but this time it is different is historically an expensive phrase.HYUFD said:
In 2017 most Remainers voted Labour as they thought Corbyn would stop Brexit and back EUref2 or at least EEA and most Leavers voted Tory as they thought the Tories would deliver Brexit (as indeed Corbyn promised Labour Leavers)
It will be harder to know which seats are pure Con/Lab battles in 2019 but the duopoly will still be there in many constituencies.0 -
-
It does seem as though a plurality (though not a majority) of the UK and EU electorates think it a good idea to behave like arses towards each other.TheScreamingEagles said:
0 -
Hmm. No. The heir apparent will be sitting on a 5,000 majority in Oxford West & Abingdon at that point.HYUFD said:
If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparentFoxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for example.TOPPING said:
One undiscussed factor is that Swindon may be more under threat in her own seat, particularly in a Brexit election.0 -
The Lib Dems' choice is more difficult than it looks. They need to decide in essence whether they want to look like the establishment, since no one else wants to, or whether they want to look like yet another type of insurgent disruptor. Given that their recent success has basically come from pursuing the second option, they should go for the candidate who is less worried about looking Prime Ministerial and more able to play unfair and dirty.
That suggests Jo Swinson to me.0 -
Does the GDPR not give you that right, irrespective of whether it is for "necessary business purposes" ?eek said:
Nope - it's data for necessary business purposes so GDPR wouldn't apply.Nigelb said:
Does not the GDPR apply ?ydoethur said:
Can't claim credit. It's the Estonian system.Gallowgate said:
Agreed. That sounds very sensible.ydoethur said:
I would only be willing to accept them, even under those circumstances, if I had complete access to the database behind it including a mechanism for seeing who was looking at my data.Gallowgate said:I have no problem with being required to hold government ID as long as you are not required to carry it on your person at all times.
And I think it's perfectly acceptable that I can check exactly who looked at my data - for fraud prevention if nothing else...0 -
At least one minister actually listened to the briefings he got in Cabinet.TheScreamingEagles said:A Leaver tweets
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/11459538610661990470 -
I'd stick to spouting nonsense about your own party, if I were you.HYUFD said:
Yes but he has a chance of winning a LD leadership election which he would not have done in Corbyn and Momentum dominated Labour now.DecrepitJohnL said:
So Chuka could by the end of the year have been the heir presumptive in three different parties: Labour, Tig/CUK and the LibDems. That surely is a record.HYUFD said:
If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparentFoxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for example.TOPPING said:
One undiscussed factor is that Swindon may be more under threat in her own seat, particularly in a Brexit election.
CUK would be lucky to have any MPs left to be heir apparent1 -
Clearly he just doesnt believe enough. We are assured that's all you need.IanB2 said:
At least one minister actually listened to the briefings he got in Cabinet.TheScreamingEagles said:A Leaver tweets
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/11459538610661990470 -
The 'Bollocks to Brexit' line was a bit startling from the normally safe and boring LDs... and it seemed to work in the Euros. Maybe it's a sign of things to come and what is needed in the current disrupted climate.AlastairMeeks said:The Lib Dems' choice is more difficult than it looks. They need to decide in essence whether they want to look like the establishment, since no one else wants to, or whether they want to look like yet another type of insurgent disruptor. Given that their recent success has basically come from pursuing the second option, they should go for the candidate who is less worried about looking Prime Ministerial and more able to play unfair and dirty.
That suggests Jo Swinson to me.0 -
My favourite set of Leavers are is that group of Leavers that is now panicked and furious that the galloping herd is stampeding over things that they hadn't bothered to check might be at risk before the referendum. Liam Fox and Andrew Neil, come on down.TheScreamingEagles said:A Leaver tweets
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1145953861066199047
0 -
The LD's got a hammering from their coalition partners in 2015, and at the same time the public blamed them for austerity, tuition fees. The Liberals were far less damaged in 1979 after their Confidence and Supply arrangement with Labour. Indeed, probably the most damage was Thorpe-Inflicted, and that was partly due to misplaced loyalty.
I recall being shouted down at a meeting when I said he was daft to try and hold his N Devon seat.0 -
Just looking like grown ups would seem to be an attractive USP at the moment.AlastairMeeks said:The Lib Dems' choice is more difficult than it looks. They need to decide in essence whether they want to look like the establishment, since no one else wants to, or whether they want to look like yet another type of insurgent disruptor. Given that their recent success has basically come from pursuing the second option, they should go for the candidate who is less worried about looking Prime Ministerial and more able to play unfair and dirty.
That suggests Jo Swinson to me.0 -
It worked well. Perhaps that was because they were headed up by a prominent former Cabinet minister but personally I doubt it. They need to keep painting their message in primary colours and not worry too much about the detail of policies on the welfare of goldfish.Benpointer said:
The 'Bollocks to Brexit' line was a bit startling from the normally safe and boring LDs... and it seemed to work in the Euros. Maybe it's a sign of things to come and what is needed in the current disrupted climate.AlastairMeeks said:The Lib Dems' choice is more difficult than it looks. They need to decide in essence whether they want to look like the establishment, since no one else wants to, or whether they want to look like yet another type of insurgent disruptor. Given that their recent success has basically come from pursuing the second option, they should go for the candidate who is less worried about looking Prime Ministerial and more able to play unfair and dirty.
That suggests Jo Swinson to me.0 -
Fraser Nelson having a fit of the vapours this morning about the leadership contenders making wild and unserious claims...AlastairMeeks said:My favourite set of Leavers are is that group of Leavers that is now panicked and furious that the galloping herd is stampeding over things that they hadn't bothered to check might be at risk before the referendum. Liam Fox and Andrew Neil, come on down.
0 -
Yes that's correct.Nigelb said:
Does the GDPR not give you that right, irrespective of whether it is for "necessary business purposes" ?eek said:
Nope - it's data for necessary business purposes so GDPR wouldn't apply.Nigelb said:
Does not the GDPR apply ?ydoethur said:
Can't claim credit. It's the Estonian system.Gallowgate said:
Agreed. That sounds very sensible.ydoethur said:
I would only be willing to accept them, even under those circumstances, if I had complete access to the database behind it including a mechanism for seeing who was looking at my data.Gallowgate said:I have no problem with being required to hold government ID as long as you are not required to carry it on your person at all times.
And I think it's perfectly acceptable that I can check exactly who looked at my data - for fraud prevention if nothing else...
Whilst on the subject of GDPR... how did all the doom-mongers' predictions about how GDPR was going to wipe out legitimate businesses work out?0 -
Good header. I had a suspicion this might be closer than many think. I am on Ed but only for price of a coffee.
I do wonder how the LibDems will stand out in the coming chaos with Ed though. Very unfair. But, another guy in a suit etc.0 -
The big difference of opinion between the books and Betfair is Joe Biden who is generally 4/1 but 11/2 on the exchange after the gilt came off his gingerbread at the debate.Nigelb said:
Not unexpected, given how recent the debate was.NickPalmer said:Two more US polls, one of them showing Harris and Warren bouncing, the other not. Confusing:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Give it a few days.
I note Harris is below 4 on Betfair, which is just about as short as any candidate has yet been. Seems a bit overdone to me for now, FWIW.
Take Shadsy's prices: Harris 3/1; Warren 4/1; Biden 4/1; Buttigieg 6/1; Sanders 8/1; 20/1 or bigger the rest. That is an implied probability of 90 per cent one of the named candidates will win. If you think Harris is too short at 3/1 then who is too long? Maybe there is value in the rags and Amy Klobuchar will break through at the next debate. But if Biden drops out before Iowa (still eight months off), as some think he will (witness his longer price on Betfair) then Harris and all the others might be too long.0 -
I think that's the point... Davey, safe and serious, or Swinson the slightly wacky orange one? They have to have more chance of standing out with Swinson.rottenborough said:Good header. I had a suspicion this might be closer than many think. I am on Ed but only for price of a coffee.
I do wonder how the LibDems will stand out in the coming chaos with Ed though. Very unfair. But, another guy in a suit etc.0 -
That's why it's a difficult choice. It's not obvious which will work best.Slackbladder said:
Just looking like grown ups would seem to be an attractive USP at the moment.AlastairMeeks said:The Lib Dems' choice is more difficult than it looks. They need to decide in essence whether they want to look like the establishment, since no one else wants to, or whether they want to look like yet another type of insurgent disruptor. Given that their recent success has basically come from pursuing the second option, they should go for the candidate who is less worried about looking Prime Ministerial and more able to play unfair and dirty.
That suggests Jo Swinson to me.0 -
I'm not sure I understand the Estonian set up.Benpointer said:
Yes that's correct.Nigelb said:
Does the GDPR not give you that right, irrespective of whether it is for "necessary business purposes" ?eek said:
Nope - it's data for necessary business purposes so GDPR wouldn't apply.Nigelb said:
Does not the GDPR apply ?ydoethur said:
Can't claim credit. It's the Estonian system.Gallowgate said:
Agreed. That sounds very sensible.ydoethur said:
I would only be willing to accept them, even under those circumstances, if I had complete access to the database behind it including a mechanism for seeing who was looking at my data.Gallowgate said:I have no problem with being required to hold government ID as long as you are not required to carry it on your person at all times.
And I think it's perfectly acceptable that I can check exactly who looked at my data - for fraud prevention if nothing else...
Whilst on the subject of GDPR... how did all the doom-mongers' predictions about how GDPR was going to wipe out legitimate businesses work out?
There's a database, presumably I consent to people checking it when I do things. What things? Is it available to my Landlord? My airline? Or is it just police?0 -
*Though no tie...rottenborough said:Good header. I had a suspicion this might be closer than many think. I am on Ed but only for price of a coffee.
I do wonder how the LibDems will stand out in the coming chaos with Ed though. Very unfair. But, another guy in a suit etc.
I thought that initially with Ed, but changed my mind. He is a pugnacious debater, but always polite. He would have the tremendous advantage over Johnson and Corbyn of actually knowing about stuff.
*I appreciate that it is the modern fashion, but a n open necked shirt and no tie is wrong with a suit jacket. If no tie, then wear a less formal jacket.0 -
Silly? SILLY? ME??????Nigelb said:
Which is pretty silly, as it implies that a centre party cannot accommodate anyone even slightly to the right of centre.TOPPING said:
It is characteristic of the two major parties under our FPTP system to believe that they have an automatic right to be the two largest coalitions of interests. It is also incredibly arrogant and undemocratic.0 -
Talking sense and being safe and serious would be a distinct improvement on what's happening at the moment.Benpointer said:
I think that's the point... Davey, safe and serious, or Swinson the slightly wacky orange one? They have to have more chance of standing out with Swinson.rottenborough said:Good header. I had a suspicion this might be closer than many think. I am on Ed but only for price of a coffee.
I do wonder how the LibDems will stand out in the coming chaos with Ed though. Very unfair. But, another guy in a suit etc.0 -
What odds will you give me for the LD on less than 50 seats (allowing margin of error for SNP)?Foxy said:
Times they are a changing...DecrepitJohnL said:
The LibDems are irrelevant at Westminster because they have only a handful of MPs. They are the fifth party (with the DUP's C&S agreement putting them a nose ahead).Foxy said:
Brexit make coalition with the Tories impossible, Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible. Corbyn and his clique are easier to change. Either way, lessons have been learnt from the previous Westminster Coalition. Worth noting that in devolved parliaments and local government, working with other parties is unremarkable. Why should Westminster be different? We do not need to restrict ourselves to the two seatbelts on offer.kle4 said:I think stodge makes an important point about the lds and coalition and not perpetuating paralysis, though I think he underestimates the trouble they could get in. The lds would prefer not to have to even deal with anyone else, in a way an extreme view as a rejection of compromise, because they get punished for doing so. But it will probably be unavoidable. What the members do this time as they cut deals will be interesting.
As the third party, LibDems would be on almost every news and current affairs programme for balance. Now they are not.
Nick Clegg's disastrous coalition agreement, where he prostituted the party's programme and principles for an AV referendum which he promptly lost, was one nail in the LibDems' coffin but the other is the rise of the SNP, who have five times as many MPs. That is the reality and worrying about yellow dresses and reaching out to other parties misses the point that until there is a recovery, they will remain irrelevant.
What they need is another Chat Show Charlie, and they ain't got one.
LDs are likely to be the third party in Westminster after the next election.0 -
Not even close to peak WaPo "fact" check.TheJezziah said:I don't have much of a preference from the outside, hard to tell them much apart as Lib Dem leaders although I haven't really paid any attention.
Going off topic I enjoyed this 'fact' check
twitter.com/davidsirota/status/1145747419264503808
https://twitter.com/spectreofmarx/status/1145914694189768704?s=191 -
Little did you realise that in just a few short years people would be saying the same about you and the Tories....TOPPING said:0 -
Why even on here they seem to be staggered that their vote to Leave should have resulted in this, surely the central case scenario of their pre-vote calculations.AlastairMeeks said:My favourite set of Leavers are is that group of Leavers that is now panicked and furious that the galloping herd is stampeding over things that they hadn't bothered to check might be at risk before the referendum. Liam Fox and Andrew Neil, come on down.
0 -
To be fair Cameron and Osborne did tell us in graphic detail what Brexit would look like. We were told Cameron and Osborne were lying traitors promoting 'Project Fear'!AlastairMeeks said:
My favourite set of Leavers are is that group of Leavers that is now panicked and furious that the galloping herd is stampeding over things that they hadn't bothered to check might be at risk before the referendum. Liam Fox and Andrew Neil, come on down.TheScreamingEagles said:A Leaver tweets
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1145953861066199047
Like many Remain voters I have never been a lover of the EU, CAP for example is a confidence trick designed to enrich French Farmers. However I do like certain benefits that are personally advantageous to me like freedom of movement. I believed Cameron and Osborne and voted accordingly. Boris and Hunt's Brexit is the Brexit many Remainers expected, I am just so surprised that so many leave supporters are now so bewildered by what they were voting for.0 -
1/3Charles said:
What odds will you give me for the LD on less than 50 seats (allowing margin of error for SNP)?Foxy said:
Times they are a changing...DecrepitJohnL said:
The LibDems are irrelevant at Westminster because they have only a handful of MPs. They are the fifth party (with the DUP's C&S agreement putting them a nose ahead).Foxy said:
Brexit make coalition with the Tories impossible, Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible. Corbyn and his clique are easier to change. Either way, lessons have been learnt from the previous Westminster Coalition. Worth noting that in devolved parliaments and local government, working with other parties is unremarkable. Why should Westminster be different? We do not need to restrict ourselves to the two seatbelts on offer.kle4 said:I think stodge makes an important point about the lds and coalition and not perpetuating paralysis, though I think he underestimates the trouble they could get in. The lds would prefer not to have to even deal with anyone else, in a way an extreme view as a rejection of compromise, because they get punished for doing so. But it will probably be unavoidable. What the members do this time as they cut deals will be interesting.
As the third party, LibDems would be on almost every news and current affairs programme for balance. Now they are not.
Nick Clegg's disastrous coalition agreement, where he prostituted the party's programme and principles for an AV referendum which he promptly lost, was one nail in the LibDems' coffin but the other is the rise of the SNP, who have five times as many MPs. That is the reality and worrying about yellow dresses and reaching out to other parties misses the point that until there is a recovery, they will remain irrelevant.
What they need is another Chat Show Charlie, and they ain't got one.
LDs are likely to be the third party in Westminster after the next election.
While 50 is a reasonable target, 30 -40 is more realistic.0 -
Layla Moran has no chance of taking the LDs to be contenders for power (plus she had allegations about domestic troubles though that need not be fatal), Chuka doesEl_Capitano said:
Hmm. No. The heir apparent will be sitting on a 5,000 majority in Oxford West & Abingdon at that point.HYUFD said:
If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparentFoxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for example.TOPPING said:
One undiscussed factor is that Swindon may be more under threat in her own seat, particularly in a Brexit election.0 -
I don’t know the Lib Dem’s but wouldn’t the activists push back on gifting a plum seat like Twickenham to a newcomer?HYUFD said:
If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparentFoxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for example.TOPPING said:
One undiscussed factor is that Swindon may be more under threat in her own seat, particularly in a Brexit election.0 -
More people voted in the EU referendum than in GE 2017DecrepitJohnL said:
Opinion polls before the referendum showed most people did not give a damn about the EU and the 2017 election results are compatible with that view. Maybe you are right about Boris's snap GE2019 but this time it is different is historically an expensive phrase.HYUFD said:
In 2017 most Remainers voted Labour as they thought Corbyn would stop Brexit and back EUref2 or at least EEA and most Leavers voted Tory as they thought the Tories would deliver Brexit (as indeed Corbyn promised Labour Leavers)DecrepitJohnL said:
They are if you believe HYUFD's and OGH's reading of the polls that it will be a Brexit election. 2017 didn't work out like that.Foxy said:
Times they are a changing...DecrepitJohnL said:
The LibDems are irrelevant at Westminster because they have only a handful of MPs. They are the fifth party (with the DUP's C&S agreement putting them a nose ahead).Foxy said:
Brexit make coalition with the Tories impossible, Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible. Corbyn and his clique are easier to change. Either way, lessons have been learnt from the previous Westminster Coalition. Worth noting that in devolved parliaments and local government, working with other parties is unremarkable. Why should Westminster be different? We do not need to restrict ourselves to the two seatbelts on offer.kle4 said:I think stodge makes an important point about the lds and coalition and not perpetuating paralysis, though I think he underestimates the trouble they could get in. The lds would prefer not to have to even deal with anyone else, in a way an extreme view as a rejection of compromise, because they get punished for doing so. But it will probably be unavoidable. What the members do this time as they cut deals will be interesting.
As the third party, LibDems would be on almost every news and current affairs programme for balance. Now they are not.
Nick Clegg's disastrous coalition agreement, where he prostituted the party's programme and principles for an AV referendum which he promptly lost, was one nail in the LibDems' coffin but the other is the rise of the SNP, who have five times as many MPs. That is the reality and worrying about yellow dresses and reaching out to other parties misses the point that until there is a recovery, they will remain irrelevant.
What they need is another Chat Show Charlie, and they ain't got one.
LDs are likely to be the third party in Westminster after the next election.0 -
Once Chukka has been a Lib Dem for 5 years then he could be worth considering, but not before. He is a welcome addition, but needs to put down roots.HYUFD said:
Layla Moran has no chance of taking the LDs to be contenders for power (plus she had allegations about domestic troubles though that need not be fatal), Chuka doesEl_Capitano said:
Hmm. No. The heir apparent will be sitting on a 5,000 majority in Oxford West & Abingdon at that point.HYUFD said:
If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparentFoxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for example.TOPPING said:
One undiscussed factor is that Swindon may be more under threat in her own seat, particularly in a Brexit election.0 -
Looking at your favoured candidate for Tory Leader, it's obvious that 'allegations about domestic troubles' need not be fatal!HYUFD said:
Layla Moran has no chance of taking the LDs to be contenders for power (plus she had allegations about domestic troubles though that need not be fatal), Chuka doesEl_Capitano said:
Hmm. No. The heir apparent will be sitting on a 5,000 majority in Oxford West & Abingdon at that point.HYUFD said:
If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparentFoxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for example.TOPPING said:
One undiscussed factor is that Swindon may be more under threat in her own seat, particularly in a Brexit election.0 -
Very true. I think part of the problem is that in a 24-hour news environment if it hasn't happened in, er, 24 hours then it is deemed not to have happened.Mexicanpete said:
To be fair Cameron and Osborne did tell us in graphic detail what Brexit would look like. We were told Cameron and Osborne were lying traitors promoting 'Project Fear'!AlastairMeeks said:
My favourite set of Leavers are is that group of Leavers that is now panicked and furious that the galloping herd is stampeding over things that they hadn't bothered to check might be at risk before the referendum. Liam Fox and Andrew Neil, come on down.TheScreamingEagles said:A Leaver tweets
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1145953861066199047
Like many Remain voters I have never been a lover of the EU, CAP for example is a confidence trick designed to enrich French Farmers. However I do like certain benefits that are personally advantageous to me like freedom of movement. I believed Cameron and Osborne and voted accordingly. Boris and Hunt's Brexit is the Brexit many Remainers expected, I am just so surprised that so many leave supporters are now so bewildered by what they were voting for.
Look at the May premiership. Many many people called it that she was on her way out (eg Osborne' dead woman walking). They were absolutely, 100%, bang on the money. Just not in the time frame that people had the attention for.0 -
I’m not convinced the country cares about non visible characteristics like that. Physical or obvious yes, otherwise it’s character, policy and tribenichomar said:
Although I voted for Ed I’m not sure the country would want yet another PPE from Oxford, which until today I hadn’t thought about.MikeSmithson said:
Indeed, compared with Boris or the Jew hater you look a giantdavid_herdson said:Mike obviously has far better links to the Lib Dems than me but for what it's worth, I think he's right.
Davey could appear on an election stage within four months, alongside Boris and Corbyn, and look most prime ministerial. I don't think Swinson could. That sort of thing must make some difference.0 -
Mine are those who said immigration had nothing to do with Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
My favourite set of Leavers are is that group of Leavers that is now panicked and furious that the galloping herd is stampeding over things that they hadn't bothered to check might be at risk before the referendum. Liam Fox and Andrew Neil, come on down.TheScreamingEagles said:A Leaver tweets
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1145953861066199047
Dan Hannan blocked me on Twitter when I posted a few of Vote Leave’s posters on the topic.0 -
Our very own @isam (where he?) is living embodiment of immigration being absolutely central to the Leave cause.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mine are those who said immigration had nothing to do with Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
My favourite set of Leavers are is that group of Leavers that is now panicked and furious that the galloping herd is stampeding over things that they hadn't bothered to check might be at risk before the referendum. Liam Fox and Andrew Neil, come on down.TheScreamingEagles said:A Leaver tweets
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1145953861066199047
Dan Hannan blocked me on Twitter when I posted a few of Vote Leave’s posters on the topic.0 -
Given his profile I think they'd weather it. The problem, I hear, is that Streatham has an active and hopeful candidate already, whereas Twickenham is coming vacant.Charles said:
I don’t know the Lib Dem’s but wouldn’t the activists push back on gifting a plum seat like Twickenham to a newcomer?HYUFD said:
If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparentFoxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for example.TOPPING said:
One undiscussed factor is that Swindon may be more under threat in her own seat, particularly in a Brexit election.
(It also heads off Davey trying to get his wife into Twickenham)0 -
At the Hustings both Ed and Jo were happy to welcome defectors, but both very clear that it was up to local parties in the end to decide who their candidate should be.Charles said:
I don’t know the Lib Dem’s but wouldn’t the activists push back on gifting a plum seat like Twickenham to a newcomer?HYUFD said:
If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparentFoxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for example.TOPPING said:
One undiscussed factor is that Swindon may be more under threat in her own seat, particularly in a Brexit election.0 -
I was thinking that Swinson being Scottish (and a Scottish MP) might be a disadvantage. But it could work to her and the Lib Dem's advantage in a TV debate at which Nicola Sturgeon is present. If she was seen to be happy to stand up not just to Brexiteers but also Scottish Nationalists, that could work quite well.0
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I'd be starting to think about targeting rather more, if things stay as they are. If they don't and start to fade, then yes 30-40 is a decent betting range.Foxy said:
1/3Charles said:
What odds will you give me for the LD on less than 50 seats (allowing margin of error for SNP)?Foxy said:
Times they are a changing...DecrepitJohnL said:
The LibDems are irrelevant at Westminster because they have only a handful of MPs. They are the fifth party (with the DUP's C&S agreement putting them a nose ahead).Foxy said:
Brexit make coalition with the Tories impossible, Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible. Corbyn and his clique are easier to change. Either way, lessons have been learnt from the previous Westminster Coalition. Worth noting that in devolved parliaments and local government, working with other parties is unremarkable. Why should Westminster be different? We do not need to restrict ourselves to the two seatbelts on offer.kle4 said:I think stodge makes an important point about the lds and coalition and not perpetuating paralysis, though I think he underestimates the trouble they could get in. The lds would prefer not to have to even deal with anyone else, in a way an extreme view as a rejection of compromise, because they get punished for doing so. But it will probably be unavoidable. What the members do this time as they cut deals will be interesting.
As the third party, LibDems would be on almost every news and current affairs programme for balance. Now they are not.
Nick Clegg's disastrous coalition agreement, where he prostituted the party's programme and principles for an AV referendum which he promptly lost, was one nail in the LibDems' coffin but the other is the rise of the SNP, who have five times as many MPs. That is the reality and worrying about yellow dresses and reaching out to other parties misses the point that until there is a recovery, they will remain irrelevant.
What they need is another Chat Show Charlie, and they ain't got one.
LDs are likely to be the third party in Westminster after the next election.
While 50 is a reasonable target, 30 -40 is more realistic.0 -
I worked with DL for some years on the Treasury Select Committee. Intelligent, definitely. But nice? Well... A LibDem Peter Mandleson - excellent to have in a campaign, but always looking for an opportunity for party advantage erven in a non-partisan setting.TOPPING said:0 -
Cable is said to be ready to hand Twickenham to Chuka but the LDs won Lambeth containing Streatham in in the European Parliament elections anywayCharles said:
I don’t know the Lib Dem’s but wouldn’t the activists push back on gifting a plum seat like Twickenham to a newcomer?HYUFD said:
If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparentFoxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for example.TOPPING said:
One undiscussed factor is that Swindon may be more under threat in her own seat, particularly in a Brexit election.0 -
The problem for Twickenham LD activists will be not that Chuka is a newcomer but that he might re-re-re-rat, especially if the Corbyn rumours turn out to be valid. As David Herdson noted, Streatham has been represented by four different parties this year alone.Foxy said:
At the Hustings both Ed and Jo were happy to welcome defectors, but both very clear that it was up to local parties in the end to decide who their candidate should be.Charles said:
I don’t know the Lib Dem’s but wouldn’t the activists push back on gifting a plum seat like Twickenham to a newcomer?HYUFD said:
If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparentFoxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for example.TOPPING said:
One undiscussed factor is that Swindon may be more under threat in her own seat, particularly in a Brexit election.0 -
Don’t parties usually bend over backwards to find a safe seat for an MP defector? For the simple reason that if defecting quickly leads to becoming an ex-MP, even fewer people would be willing to do it?IanB2 said:
Given his profile I think they'd weather it. The problem, I hear, is that Streatham has an active and hopeful candidate already, whereas Twickenham is coming vacant.Charles said:
I don’t know the Lib Dem’s but wouldn’t the activists push back on gifting a plum seat like Twickenham to a newcomer?HYUFD said:
If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparentFoxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for example.TOPPING said:
One undiscussed factor is that Swindon may be more under threat in her own seat, particularly in a Brexit election.
(It also heads off Davey trying to get his wife into Twickenham)0 -
Presumably like 84% of MPs, then.NickPalmer said:
I worked with DL for some years on the Treasury Select Committee. Intelligent, definitely. But nice? Well... A LibDem Peter Mandleson - excellent to have in a campaign, but always looking for an opportunity for party advantage erven in a non-partisan setting.TOPPING said:0 -
Surely it's not surprising that most second jobs are part time. How could you work two full time jobs?Alistair said:
Not even close to peak WaPo "fact" check.TheJezziah said:I don't have much of a preference from the outside, hard to tell them much apart as Lib Dem leaders although I haven't really paid any attention.
Going off topic I enjoyed this 'fact' check
twitter.com/davidsirota/status/1145747419264503808
https://twitter.com/spectreofmarx/status/1145914694189768704?s=190 -
IanB2 said:Charles said:
Given his profile I think they'd weather it. The problem, I hear, is that Streatham has an active and hopeful candidate already, whereas Twickenham is coming vacant.HYUFD said:
I don’t know the Lib Dem’s but wouldn’t the activists push back on gifting a plum seat like Twickenham to a newcomer?Foxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for exampleTOPPING said:
If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparent
(It also heads off Davey trying to get his wife into Twickenham)
The ‘former’ ppc was out canvassing with the current lib dem MP at the weekend so I think HY has got some misinformationIanB2 said:
Given his profile I think they'd weather it. The problem, I hear, is that Streatham has an active and hopeful candidate already, whereas Twickenham is coming vacant.Charles said:
I don’t know the Lib Dem’s but wouldn’t the activists push back on gifting a plum seat like Twickenham to a newcomer?HYUFD said:
If it is Swinson and we have a snap general election in September or October and the SNP regain her seat we could have another LD leadership election in a few months and if Chuka has won Streatham or Twickenham he would then be the heir apparentFoxy said:
More differences of emphasis than policy differences. Davey very keen on environmental issues for example.TOPPING said:
One undiscussed factor is that Swindon may be more under threat in her own seat, particularly in a Brexit election.
(It also heads off Davey trying to get his wife into Twickenham)0
This discussion has been closed.