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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The looming fork in the road and the path many MPs will have t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The looming fork in the road and the path many MPs will have to make
You need to watch politics in split-screen at the moment. In both Labour and the Conservatives, a group of politicians has come to a fork in the road. In both cases, there is no shortage of fellow party supporters telling them to fork off.
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The second law of thermodynamics (tendency towards disorder) seems to be winning.
I'm off to do a laundry.
Do your essay justice later.
F1: well, qualifying was frustrating. Given the result, I think there was a 70% chance, roughly, of my bet having been green (probably minor rather than major) had the Fates not decided to urinate in the teacup of tipping.
Anyway. I'll peruse the markets.
But first past the Post keeps both parties limping on. Much as I despair of Labour, I will gladly vote for them to stave off what I regard as a far worse alternative, and doubtless many despairing Tories will do the same for their sorry party. Sad!
Ah. F1 is being dickish again. Magnussen qualified 5th, and apparently that's the reason (the Dane also has a penalty). So Hamilton qualified 2nd, received a 3 place grid penalty, and will start 4th. That's some bullshit.
You'll never see longer prices for two frontrunners
Take a grid penalty to ConHome until noon.
Farage & Corbyn took advantage of this phenomenon, but they did not make it.
That is the triumph of middle-of-the-road politicians (of the right or the left). Obviously, if the middle-of-the-roaders had been so successful, then the Labour and Tory Parties could never have been take over by the extremes !!
As long as the Blairites and Cameroonies refuse to acknowledge their responsibility, then the disaffected are not coming back. The people who suffered at their hands are not going to be satisfied by a return to the status quo.
That is why most laughed at the ridiculous TIGgers, even while pb.com held its collective breath in awe.
Putin may or may not have been right to say Liberalism is dead. But, Liberalism has had no empathy for its victims. That is why we are where we are.
The Conservative and Unionist Party has gone well past this point and Tory Remainers must be thinking what the point of staying in the party is when the centre of their party has drifted so far away.
Mr. Doof, yeah, just like they nicked Saturnalia
On the F1 stuff, I've found some interesting prospects but I want a bit more coffee before spraying money down the drain.
Overall, we have passed peak-Corbyn and peak-Momentum. In a few years they will be a huge stain on Labour’s history, but nothing more. Labour will remain further to the left than it was under Blair and Brown, but it will be a softer, more mainstream left.
Given all that, I expect the vast majority of undoubtedly morally compromised Labour MPs to stay - and for the Tories to win most seats, but not a majority, at the next GE if Johnson calls a snap poll.
It looks different for the Tories. The party has clearly turned right and become a lot more English nationalist. That’s been a bottom-up process, not a top down one, so is much less about who the leader is. When No Deal exposes all of the Brexiteer claims about Global Britain for the delusions they are, will the current membership accept that and tack back to the pragmàtic centre? I am not so sure.
The problem is that for parties to be displaced under our system they need to implode - as the official Liberals did in 1918 and 1924 - and have a replacement at hand to stop them rising again.
The risk for Labour is that while there is an obvious and plausible replacement for them - the Liberal Democrats - it's far from clear the same holds true for the Tories, as their main rivals are a single issue ego trip led by a third rate failure who looks like a frog and whose speeches are not much more intelligible than those of a frog.
But that is not to say Labour won't survive or the Tories will. If the last five years have taught us anything, it is that the rules of politics have been torn up.
Pretty good article too, but then the thread headers here generally are.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/29/passions-blowing-boris-johnson-into-no-10-could-yet-bring-him-down
We're not at that point yet, but if the Lib Dems get a poll boost from Swinson, say, and Corbyn continues to refuse to change course on Brexit and internal matters, including antisemitism, dragging them down further, some may judge it's not just their consciences that will be saved by leaving.
And I don't recognise the Tories as the party I once opposed. There was a sort of noblesse oblige about many of them once upon a time, but Thatcher encouraged into the party a lot of people who had a different world-view; 'pull up the ladder, Jack, I'm all right', and they seem to have taken over.
The present political climate is so fluid that there are a vast range of political scenarios that has OGH in paroxysm of delight at the thread possibilities.
We only need to look at the short history of TIG and CHUK to note the phenomenon. At one moment they attract a group of notable MP's and poll double digits and in the blink of a political eye they are flushed down the gurgler in very short order.
We live in interesting times.
She tries to hold up the mirror of Corbynism to her party and her colleagues either can’t see it or don’t mind. Very sad.
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/joanne-bartley-has-our-party-gone-mad-no-deal-brexiteers-are-acting-like-pro-corbyn-extremists.html
Betting PostF1: pre-race ramble will be up in a bit, but the two tips I'll include are:
Hulkenberg to beat Perez (2.75 on Ladbrokes)
Verstappen to win (7.8 Betfair, hedged at 3)
The Racing Point is now the second slowest car. Perez's points have come from early in the season, whereas most of Hulkenberg's are recent, and the reason he has a penalty is due to an engine upgrade.
Verstappen's been very competitive in qualifying and the Red Bull will be relatively faster in the race (which he won last year, starting from 4th).
Would that be the part that we were paying for the transition period...?
In Labour, with anti-semitism, you have fundamentally a moral failure of the leadership. They have also been willing to tolerate the wholesale takeover of positions of power within the party by people who share that moral failure. These groups tend to be self-sustaining. It may be that Brexit creates the means by which power can be wrested from this group, but it’s not clear to me that there is any individual candidate with the charisma or reach that could topple Corbyn from his current post.
The issue for Labour is that this trend is both self-sustaining and self reinforcing. Without a wholesale purge - like Kinnock did with Militant - I don’t see how the moderates regain control. The challenge that they face (and I was young at the time so happy to be corrected) is that Kinnock controlled the leadership positions in the party and had the support of moderate unions. Today the positions of power are reversed, with the extremists also having a significant body of support among the membership
May be a Labour supporter can highlight someone with the broad appeal, tactical nouse, low cunning, and access to the key power groups in the party to take back control? I can’t see anyone from the outside
(Conservatives to come)
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/06/austria-pre-race-2019.html
Discovered on Twitter only two drivers are actually starting in the positions they qualified. Mmm, penalties.
Noblesse Oblige was always the hallmark of the Conservative Party, and it suggested they meant well, even if some of their solutions were iffy. Mr T brought in the more 'do this or else' solutions.
Labour used to exude a caring patriotism, and the Liberals/LDs gave out a peacenik, Panglossian aura.
We now have a the LDs in a more militant 'we know best' mood, epitomised by the refusal to accept compromise or the will of the people.
Labour, a captive of the hard left, will force people to accept whatever is deemed the party line. A strain of anti-Americanism, pro Hamas foreign policy, a strong level of control to force people to conform, and punishment for all class-enemies.
The once amiable Tories have gone into a 'we aint taking this is any more' attitude.
This sort of hardening is personified by t-shirts proclaiming 'I've never kissed a
Tory, Trot, or Pinko'. That used to be a trait of teenagers like the Kevin portrayed by Harry Enfield, or Wolfie Smith (one for the oldies). They were always an object of ridicule. Not now.
Politics isn't real life anymore. It's not a matter of rubbing along. Hence the plethora of loons with "Activist' as their job-title.
All positions of responsibility in the Labour party are held either at the leader’s discretion or subject to annual election - directly or indirectly. That means things can change very quickly. Corbyn is the glue that holds the far-left’s grip on the levers of power together. He is vacuous enough and pliable enough to be acceptable to all its many factions. There is no-one else like him.
But ultimately it all hinges on ongoing approval of Corbyn from members and the unions. That’s why the fact that long-time loyalists are beginning to break ranks (Rayner is the latest) is so significant. They think that approval is slipping.
I forget who first made the observation, but the reason why the U.K. has had comparatively few revolutions in recent history is because the elites manage to persuade a sufficient proportion of the protesters to join them.
I think what we are living through is one of those historic shifts in positioning. @AlastairMeeks understandably has a worldview that is driven by the interests of the great conurbations, principally London. Moreover for the last quarter century the leadership of the country has been in the hands of people with little understanding or instinctive feel for the concerns of the average Joe. May did, I think, but her other weaknesses as a politician overwhelmed that. Labour leadership has mainly been middle class, but the roots of the broader “movement” helped them keep their finger in the pulse. I think the shift of unionisation to the public sector and away from manual labour has eroded this connection.
Fundamentally, since the late 90s the country has been run by London for London. The balance has not been maintained and what we are seeing is a reversion to mean (I don’t know enough about Scotland, but I suspect part of the SNP’s support comes from the same underlying pressure).
The Conservatives are positioning themselves in the side of the non-London group. That gives them a route to survival. Once Brexit is resolved (by which I mean the act of leaving not the ongoing discussions) then they can rebuild from their new position.
If they succeed, then they will revert to their inclusive roots and the mood will shift. If they fail to deliver then a “merger” between BXP and the Tories is the likely outcome. Even with this, however, I don’t think they will become fundamentally an “English nationalist” party as you argue.
I don't recall, although it's a VERY long time ago now, ever being worried about girl-friend's politics, at least in the initial, 'getting physically acquainted' stages.
Although I was never involved with the middle class marriage bureau for my youth, the Young Conservatives.
For the Tories, who have always tried to look after "our people", their focus is following the shift of their powerbase; what remains of Tory support in London is quickly melting away, and there are early signs that the Home Counties may be experiencing the breaking of Tory hegemony.
But there is nothing inherent in Brexit that is going to address these underlying concerns; indeed most economic projections suggest London & SE would be more resilient to the economic shock. The tragedy for our nation is that Brexit is an immense red herring to the real issues of inequality between the regions.
Unfair? It's how you treat politicians who voted remain who are trying to deliver Brexit.
Let’s say the election isn’t until 2022. You could easily have 5 more years of Corbyn in leadership. How many of the aspiring successors won’t cone the same tradition by then?
All it is indicative of is that the Tories DNA is towards limiting the government’s reach into citizens’ pockets to what is necessary
(And if the Labour Party want to make the next election about Tory tax cuts be my guest)
Trump is good addition to the list of deplorable.
And really given Obama's was nominated barely into his presidency before he even had an opportunity to earn it, Itd be amusing to see if Trump, arsehole that he is, actually had a concrete achievement.
As for diehard Remainers who can no longer stomach a Boris led Tory Party or Blairites in Labour who can no longer stomach Corbynism there is always the LDs, as Michael Heseltine and Chuka Umunna have already discovered
I don’t know Lee or Grieve, but I think you believe positively voting against your own party in a Vonc is easier than it is
Put yourself in the shoes of a Conservative MP who sincerely believes no deal Brexit would be disastrous. I understand you disagree, but that’s not the point. What do you think they should do just now, given their views and given that Boris Johnson has made it abundantly clear to secure Brexit on whatever terms by whatever means, including the abrogation of Parliamentary democracy, by 31 October?
I’d expect a cut in DfID’s budget (although this can be funded through eliminating the c £1.5bn contribution to the E.U. international development aid, but who cares about double counting)
Probably increased defence spending, reform of business rates (to help small businesses), support for farmers, transport infrastructure investment that sort of thing.
Small town England is instinctively suspicious of “big ideas”
Small town England said “no thanks”
Bold strategy Cotton...
This. A thousand times this.
Superb header. Thank you @AlastairMeeks.
My fundamental point is that you have misdiagnosed the situation, so I don’t accept the premise of your argument.
They will bitch and moan but not do anything effective. When Brexit happens it will either be not as bad as they think (in which case they will reintegrate into the party) or it is (in which case they or their successors* will be well positioned to lead the party)
* this process can take a while. It was about 30 years before the Tory party successfully repositioned themselves after the Peelite/Ultra split.
Selecting an uncompromising Brexit as the means to achieve this seems a pretty high risk option.
Unfortunately we are in a Catch-22 situation (enjoying the new TV adaptation by the way!). FPTP won't change until we elect a government that wants it changed. FPTP ensures we will never elect a government that wants it changed.
Will the last fiscal conservative in the Tory party climb down from Boris's magic money tree and then please turn the lights out as he shuts the doors of the House if Commons as he refuses to rule out proroguing parliament.
Thank you.
By staying they are fooling themselves and others that the problem is remediable with the current leadership and/or not so bad.
https://twitter.com/sophyridgesky/status/1145244002347888641?s=21
I appreciate that you are relaxed about the coalition of strident English nationalism and visceral hatred of the EU that is now in charge of your party. But why should those who think it is catastrophic stay around to be abused by the death cult?
Johnson's tax cuts aimed at those in the £50k to £80k income bracket will benefit many head teachers, police inspectors, businesspeople, solicitors in the provinces etc they are not aimed at the rich. To be in the top 1% of earners in the UK you need to earn £160k a year, if he wanted to do that he would have cut the 45p top income tax rate for those earning over £150k back to 40p.
Boris' tax cuts may also boost growth and tax revenues, in turn enabling him to fund his spending commitments