politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020 could be the election that the US finally chooses a wom
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It's unreasonable because you can't judge a politician's position in a 1960s or 1970s controversy (and this was VERY controversial) by received wisdom in 2019 which ignores all the reasons why it was controversial at the time. It's unfair because any young candidate with no significant national record doesn't have to justify their previous positions in the same way. Also she shouted over him so he couldn't actually make his point about the Federal government aspect of it.Nigelb said:
In what way was it unfair ?Richard_Nabavi said:
Personally I thought Kamala Harris' attack on him was unfair, unreasonable, shouty and frankly rather obnoxious, but I'm not the target market and I expect it will have gone down well.Nigelb said:Bottom line is that desegregation would not have happened without Federal action, and Biden still doesn't acknowledge being somewhat on the wrong side of that argument.
That it was unpopular at the time isn't really the point today.
(And his response was pretty 'shouty', too.)
But I agree that many Dem primary voters will be judging his 1960s/1970s record, or a caricature of it, by 2019 criteria, which is why I think it was probably effective. And maybe you could argue that being able to shout simplistic messages is just what the Dems need to counter Trump. I'm not sure about that - I think Elizabeth Warren's more detailed policy-based approach might be a better counter - but I can see that some of the target audience would like the shoutiness.1 -
The net rating of those that voted Tory at GE2017 on good PMBrom said:
Pretty obvious given most of the 41% would never consider Tory or even have their best interests at heart.Gallowgate said:
Hunt plus 19
Johnson plus 16
Hunt’s ratings are being driven by people who voted Tory in 2017.
So fake news from you.0 -
Is that not partly a function of his age? And he's going to be playing the "experience" card for all it's worth.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's unreasonable because you can't judge a politician's position in a 1960s or 1970s controversy (and this was VERY controversial) by received wisdom in 2019 which ignores all the reasons why it was controversial at the time. It's unfair because any young candidate with no significant national record doesn't have to justify their previous positions in the same way. Also she shouted over him so he couldn't actually make his point about the Federal government aspect of it.Nigelb said:
In what way was it unfair ?Richard_Nabavi said:
Personally I thought Kamala Harris' attack on him was unfair, unreasonable, shouty and frankly rather obnoxious, but I'm not the target market and I expect it will have gone down well.Nigelb said:Bottom line is that desegregation would not have happened without Federal action, and Biden still doesn't acknowledge being somewhat on the wrong side of that argument.
That it was unpopular at the time isn't really the point today.
(And his response was pretty 'shouty', too.)
But I agree that many Dem primary voters will be judging his 1960s/1970s record, or a caricature of it, by 2019 criteria, which is why I think it was probably effective. And maybe you could argue that being able to shout simplistic messages is just what the Dems need to counter Trump. I'm not sure about that - I think Elizabeth Warren's more detailed policy-based approach might be a better counter - but I can see that some of the target audience would like the shoutiness.
I've long thought that this is no contest for old men.0 -
If the Tories are going to rely upon the views of 29% of the population, they're setting a low cap on their maximum vote.Brom said:
Pretty obvious given most of the 41% would never consider Tory or even have their best interests at heart.Gallowgate said:0 -
As my wife's first boss was fond of saying, someone's greatest strength is often also their greatest weakness. Experience comes with baggage.AlastairMeeks said:Is that not partly a function of his age? And he's going to be playing the "experience" card for all it's worth.
I've long thought that this is no contest for old men.0 -
Oddly, I'm just back from lunch with someone who used that expression in the meeting beforehand.Richard_Nabavi said:
As my wife's first boss was fond of saying, someone's greatest strength is often also their greatest weakness. Experience comes with baggage.AlastairMeeks said:Is that not partly a function of his age? And he's going to be playing the "experience" card for all it's worth.
I've long thought that this is no contest for old men.0 -
It was very close. The in running betting on the night was a roller coaster. It could have gone either way until quite late on. Tremendously exciting. I remember it as if it were yesterday.macisback said:The final scoreboard didn't show a photo finish. Trump pretty much won all the states he wanted, some were close but won all the same.
Trump's win was a quite remarkable political achievement. It's wrong to downplay it by suggesting it was in any way shape or form easy. It factually was not. It was a tough tough battle and he shaded it. C'est ca.0 -
Over on Predictit, Marianne Williamson's price has gone up to 2 cents which would equate to odds of 50).
I've bought £2 at 480, hopefully she can be the next flavour of the day no hope surger on Betfair after Gabbard and Yang.0 -
In a photo finish the final results show the winning horse won, it was close but it still won all the same.macisback said:
The final scoreboard didn't show a photo finish. Trump pretty much won all the states he wanted, some were close but won all the same.kinabalu said:
Let's not rewrite history so soon after the event. He did not find it easy to beat Hillary. It was a photo finish after a long and bruising campaign.HYUFD said:I doubt it, Trump will find Warren and Harris even easier to beat than Hillary, both are more left liberal than her, especially Warren and neither are particularly charismatic. With the advantage of incumbency Trump could beat either in both the popular vote and electoral college.
Biden and Sanders poll much better v Trump than Warren or Harris do.
However the US arguably already has chosen a woman to lead them already, Nancy Pelosi is Speaker of the House of Representatives which is US equivalent of the UK Prime Minister, even if there has been no female President as US Head of State yet0 -
Dodgy sample ! It’s not possible for the great leader to not be the Tory Messiah!Gallowgate said:0 -
Our resident polling expert (sic) told us yesterday that the Tories’ vote share cap, even under the great philanderer, is now in the region of 36%.AlastairMeeks said:
If the Tories are going to rely upon the views of 29% of the population, they're setting a low cap on their maximum vote.Brom said:
Pretty obvious given most of the 41% would never consider Tory or even have their best interests at heart.Gallowgate said:0 -
Imagine if the donald had done this...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7192607/Did-leave-remain-Jeremy-Corbyn-shuts-WIFE-porch-million-pound-home.html0 -
Simple answer: No.Nigelb said:(OT F1)
Should Bottas really be double Hamilton's odds for Austria quality ?
It'a been quite a good track for him.
Slightly longer answer: the red and silver cars are quite close together here, and it’s the shortest (in time) lap of the year so it’s likely there will be hundredths in it on Saturday afternoon. Lewis is rightly favourite and is the in-form driver, but has been known to go balls-out for the perfect lap and fall short as a result.0 -
Yep. My father kept that going for six whole months.Dadge said:
I don't remember that case, but I can guarantee you there are thousands of people who are pretending to their family that they are doing a job that they aren't. Cases of people leaving for "work" when they don't actually have any work to go to are sadly commonplace. Thankfully these lies rarely lead to murder, but they do sometimes lead to suicide.AndyJS said:O/T
"A Frenchman who killed his parents, wife and children after pretending for two decades to be a successful doctor, in a case that inspired a book and films, has been released on parole after 26 years in jail, his lawyer said Friday.
Jean-Claude Romand murdered his parents, wife and two children in 1993 as they were about to learn about his double life."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/28/notorious-fake-doctor-killed-entire-family-found-freed-26-years/0 -
I've been invited to a Jeremy Hunt meeting with local party members at the weekend, but unfortunately I can't go. It would have been interesting to see how he goes down with the selectorate.0
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I'm sure the key to winning the election is to get those who voted Obama in 2012 but who didn't vote in 2016 to vote again, especially in Pa,Mi,Wi. Trump will gain very few new votes. His popularity is holding up amongst those who voted for him, but there aren't many who are "Trump Neutral" to win over this time.Brom said:
It's pretty clear that Biden and Trump will have an overlap and fish in a similar pool. Biden will certainly win votes from Trump. Can anyone say that Harris will win round any Trump 2016 voters? She's relying on unlocking non 2016 voters which is a much more dangerous business. She would be a huge risk.0 -
How did he keep it secret? I mean didn't the family notice that there was no money anymore or that the savings were vanishing?IanB2 said:
Yep. My father kept that going for six whole months.Dadge said:
I don't remember that case, but I can guarantee you there are thousands of people who are pretending to their family that they are doing a job that they aren't. Cases of people leaving for "work" when they don't actually have any work to go to are sadly commonplace. Thankfully these lies rarely lead to murder, but they do sometimes lead to suicide.AndyJS said:O/T
"A Frenchman who killed his parents, wife and children after pretending for two decades to be a successful doctor, in a case that inspired a book and films, has been released on parole after 26 years in jail, his lawyer said Friday.
Jean-Claude Romand murdered his parents, wife and two children in 1993 as they were about to learn about his double life."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/28/notorious-fake-doctor-killed-entire-family-found-freed-26-years/0 -
YouGov’s summary: “If the Conservatives are looking towards Boris Johnson as a magic election winner, the evidence is simply no longer there. A decade ago he had a reputation as the Tory who could reach voters other Tories could not, and significantly outperformed his party in the 2012 mayoral election. However our latest polling does not suggest he offers any innate electoral advantage over Jeremy Hunt.Gallowgate said:
The only different seems to be that the LibDems and Greens do marginally better under Johnson and the BXP marginally better under Hunt.0 -
Unicorn steaks anyone?Mexicanpete said:
Mr Johnson's genius is of course this also resolves childhood obescity issues at the same time. So this will save the NHS a further £350b a day, week, minute or whatever it was. Brilliant!Scott_P said:0 -
I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to goRichard_Nabavi said:I've been invited to a Jeremy Hunt meeting with local party members at the weekend, but unfortunately I can't go. It would have been interesting to see how he goes down with the selectorate.
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Are you thinking of Vince Cable?Dadge said:
I don't remember that case, but I can guarantee you there are thousands of people who are pretending to their family that they are doing a job that they aren't. Cases of people leaving for "work" when they don't actually have any work to go to are sadly commonplace. Thankfully these lies rarely lead to murder, but they do sometimes lead to suicide.AndyJS said:O/T
"A Frenchman who killed his parents, wife and children after pretending for two decades to be a successful doctor, in a case that inspired a book and films, has been released on parole after 26 years in jail, his lawyer said Friday.
Jean-Claude Romand murdered his parents, wife and two children in 1993 as they were about to learn about his double life."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/28/notorious-fake-doctor-killed-entire-family-found-freed-26-years/0 -
And yet this was clearly prompted by his recent fond reminiscences of doing deals with the segregationists - 'he never called me boy...etc'.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's unreasonable because you can't judge a politician's position in a 1960s or 1970s controversy (and this was VERY controversial) by received wisdom in 2019 which ignores all the reasons why it was controversial at the time. It's unfair because any young candidate with no significant national record doesn't have to justify their previous positions in the same way. Also she shouted over him so he couldn't actually make his point about the Federal government aspect of it.Nigelb said:
In what way was it unfair ?Richard_Nabavi said:
Personally I thought Kamala Harris' attack on him was unfair, unreasonable, shouty and frankly rather obnoxious, but I'm not the target market and I expect it will have gone down well.Nigelb said:Bottom line is that desegregation would not have happened without Federal action, and Biden still doesn't acknowledge being somewhat on the wrong side of that argument.
That it was unpopular at the time isn't really the point today.
(And his response was pretty 'shouty', too.)
But I agree that many Dem primary voters will be judging his 1960s/1970s record, or a caricature of it, by 2019 criteria, which is why I think it was probably effective. And maybe you could argue that being able to shout simplistic messages is just what the Dems need to counter Trump. I'm not sure about that - I think Elizabeth Warren's more detailed policy-based approach might be a better counter - but I can see that some of the target audience would like the shoutiness.
I'm just old enough to know it was controversial at the time, and I understand the expediency of Biden taking the stance he did, in a state south of the Mason Dixon line. But I can't see how it is 'ignoring all the reasons it was controversial at the time'. Every American alive back then - including Harris herself - is well aware of that.
The point is that arguably Biden is still a creature of that time, and it's extraordinary to expect his primary opponents to ignore his record when his essential electoral appeal is that record. 'Unfair' is just silly in this context.
In the context of 1960, Biden was a liberal. In 2019, he is a conservative, which is the real point - and also his electoral argument. Countering that argument is simply politics (as your second paragraph acknowledges).0 -
Cutting your toenails?Big_G_NorthWales said:I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go
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His business was already in difficulty so there wasn’t much money coming in beforehand, and we were already living on savings from the good times. It was six months before he owned up to its bankruptcy.eristdoof said:
How did he keep it secret? I mean didn't the family notice that there was no money anymore or that the savings were vanishing?IanB2 said:
Yep. My father kept that going for six whole months.Dadge said:
I don't remember that case, but I can guarantee you there are thousands of people who are pretending to their family that they are doing a job that they aren't. Cases of people leaving for "work" when they don't actually have any work to go to are sadly commonplace. Thankfully these lies rarely lead to murder, but they do sometimes lead to suicide.AndyJS said:O/T
"A Frenchman who killed his parents, wife and children after pretending for two decades to be a successful doctor, in a case that inspired a book and films, has been released on parole after 26 years in jail, his lawyer said Friday.
Jean-Claude Romand murdered his parents, wife and two children in 1993 as they were about to learn about his double life."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/28/notorious-fake-doctor-killed-entire-family-found-freed-26-years/0 -
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A vote won from Trump is worth twice as much. In the electoral college system I would suggest that becomes particularly important.eristdoof said:
I'm sure the key to winning the election is to get those who voted Obama in 2012 but who didn't vote in 2016 to vote again, especially in Pa,Mi,Wi. Trump will gain very few new votes. His popularity is holding up amongst those who voted for him, but there aren't many who are "Trump Neutral" to win over this time.Brom said:
It's pretty clear that Biden and Trump will have an overlap and fish in a similar pool. Biden will certainly win votes from Trump. Can anyone say that Harris will win round any Trump 2016 voters? She's relying on unlocking non 2016 voters which is a much more dangerous business. She would be a huge risk.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
F1: windy problems in Austria. Half the top 6 went off-track significantly, Bottas and Verstappen crashing and Vettel just about keeping his car intact.0 -
I would argue that at this stage if you get 29% in a general election you will win it. But in fairness 29 + 41 = 70 and maybe it's that spare 30% Boris might need to be winning.AlastairMeeks said:
If the Tories are going to rely upon the views of 29% of the population, they're setting a low cap on their maximum vote.Brom said:
Pretty obvious given most of the 41% would never consider Tory or even have their best interests at heart.Gallowgate said:0 -
More desperate non-news.FrancisUrquhart said:Imagine if the donald had done this...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7192607/Did-leave-remain-Jeremy-Corbyn-shuts-WIFE-porch-million-pound-home.html0 -
If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.kinabalu said:
Cutting your toenails?Big_G_NorthWales said:I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go
Up to you.0 -
That was my point...Dadge said:
More desperate non-news.FrancisUrquhart said:Imagine if the donald had done this...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7192607/Did-leave-remain-Jeremy-Corbyn-shuts-WIFE-porch-million-pound-home.html0 -
Ah bugger. (I’m not watching live, travelling today). Didn’t stop Lewis in Canada though, after he binned it on Friday.Nigelb said:0 -
Richard_Nabavi said:
I've been invited to a Jeremy Hunt meeting with local party members at the weekend, but unfortunately I can't go. It would have been interesting to see how he goes down with the selectorate.
This was a Jeremy-solo show rather than a hustings?
Would be interesting to glean who is doing solos vs hustings (which are better publicised)0 -
I don't think he will take it in the way that you have.CarlottaVance said:If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.
Up to you.
But if he does of course I will.0 -
Yes, a solo event, I imagine paid for by his campaign (it's a hired venue with potentially quite a large capacity). I don't know how many of these are happening, but from what Big G says Boris is also doing them.CarlottaVance said:Richard_Nabavi said:I've been invited to a Jeremy Hunt meeting with local party members at the weekend, but unfortunately I can't go. It would have been interesting to see how he goes down with the selectorate.
This was a Jeremy-solo show rather than a hustings?
Would be interesting to glean who is doing solos vs hustings (which are better publicised)0 -
Mr. B, I used the same word (lottery) in my pre-qualifying blog, which I'll finish and put up at the usual sort of time.
Hamilton is good at adapting to tricky conditions, but nobody's perfect, and in the race someone else cocking up could affect him too.1 -
What way did you intend he take it?kinabalu said:
I don't think he will take it in the way that you have.CarlottaVance said:If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.
Up to you.0 -
As in, I have a prior engagement... washing my hair.CarlottaVance said:
What way did you intend he take it?kinabalu said:
I don't think he will take it in the way that you have.CarlottaVance said:If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.
Up to you.1 -
For the Tories - and effectively everyone else GE predictions based on current polling mean very little. As before everything depends mainly on the Brexit position after October - under either Boris or James. The other potential 'event' is with Corbyn - one finally senses that power may be ebbing away from him - and surely a more centrist Labour party would probably win.0
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Great minds, MD...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, I used the same word (lottery) in my pre-qualifying blog, which I'll finish and put up at the usual sort of time.
Hamilton is good at adapting to tricky conditions, but nobody's perfect, and in the race someone else cocking up could affect him too.0 -
Interesting - clearly both are taking it seriously, which is good.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, a solo event, I imagine paid for by his campaign (it's a hired venue with potentially quite a large capacity). I don't know how many of these are happening, but from what Big G says Boris is also doing them.CarlottaVance said:Richard_Nabavi said:I've been invited to a Jeremy Hunt meeting with local party members at the weekend, but unfortunately I can't go. It would have been interesting to see how he goes down with the selectorate.
This was a Jeremy-solo show rather than a hustings?
Would be interesting to glean who is doing solos vs hustings (which are better publicised)
The last coronation went so well....0 -
How the mighty have fallen. Six weeks ago, Beto O'Rourke was part of the gang of four leading the pack of Democrat candidates. He was last traded at 50, lagging behind Tulsi Gabbard and with Cory Booker looking set to pass him in the other direction.0
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Well he launched with zero policies.AlastairMeeks said:How the mighty have fallen. Six weeks ago, Beto O'Rourke was part of the gang of four leading the pack of Democrat candidates. He was last traded at 50, lagging behind Tulsi Gabbard and with Cory Booker looking set to pass him in the other direction.
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One line struck me in the debate (which Im sure he has used before) was Buttiegieg's about the environment in 2055 "When I am as old as President Trump is now"....0
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Mr. B< aye, but fools are never far apart!
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You know how some tweets don’t age very well..
https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1020255794024132609?s=210 -
Just switched on the BBC News Channel and a reporter standing in the middle of Carpentras in France is informing us that the hot weather is impelling people to buy ice creams.1
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Yes.Nigelb said:As in, I have a prior engagement... washing my hair.
Just a variation on the old Peter Cook line when asked if he was free to meet a particular dignitary one evening. Checks diary and -
"Unfortunately I find that I am watching television."
That's all.
Don't see why 'Big G' would not chuckle (if it's his kind of joke).0 -
45. C degree recorded in France at 3pm.0
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In other news....
Quite simply, if Labour MPs cannot bring themselves to sign it [The Watson letter to remove Chris Williamson] then they can no longer claim to support Jewish community in Britain. By Friday lunchtime, what was most surprising about the letter was not the 120-odd names who have signed it - but the missing names of those who hadn’t.
Over the past few years, the likes of Emily Thornberry, Keir Starmer and Barry Gardiner and Angela Raynor have all presented themselves as allies of the Jewish community. They, along with politicians such as Andrew Gwynn, Sue Hayman and John Healey are serious omissions from the list of signatories to the letter from Labour shadow cabinet.
And what of Shami Chakrabarti, Dawn Butler - Labour's shadow equalities secretary in the shadow cabinet - or shadow chancellor John McDonnell, who has claimed to want to resolve the party's antisemitism crisis?
https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/labour-mps-who-did-not-sign-letter-to-remove-williamson-whip-have-nowhere-to-hide-1.485929
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Ho, ho, ho...
Trump Jokes to Putin They Should ‘Get Rid’ of Journalists
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-jokes-to-putin-they-should-get-rid-of-journalists0 -
Williamson will appear on Russia Today (RT) to defend his anti-racism efforts apparently.CarlottaVance said:In other news....
Quite simply, if Labour MPs cannot bring themselves to sign it [The Watson letter to remove Chris Williamson] then they can no longer claim to support Jewish community in Britain. By Friday lunchtime, what was most surprising about the letter was not the 120-odd names who have signed it - but the missing names of those who hadn’t.
Over the past few years, the likes of Emily Thornberry, Keir Starmer and Barry Gardiner and Angela Raynor have all presented themselves as allies of the Jewish community. They, along with politicians such as Andrew Gwynn, Sue Hayman and John Healey are serious omissions from the list of signatories to the letter from Labour shadow cabinet.
And what of Shami Chakrabarti, Dawn Butler - Labour's shadow equalities secretary in the shadow cabinet - or shadow chancellor John McDonnell, who has claimed to want to resolve the party's antisemitism crisis?
https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/labour-mps-who-did-not-sign-letter-to-remove-williamson-whip-have-nowhere-to-hide-1.485929
Quite incredible.0 -
I'm sure you have plenty of experience in the matter...Nigelb said:
As in, I have a prior engagement... washing my hair.CarlottaVance said:
What way did you intend he take it?kinabalu said:
I don't think he will take it in the way that you have.CarlottaVance said:If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.
Up to you.0 -
If a constituency association invites one candidate, they have to offer a similar invitation to the other according to HuffPo. It is in the rules of the election.CarlottaVance said:
Interesting - clearly both are taking it seriously, which is good.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, a solo event, I imagine paid for by his campaign (it's a hired venue with potentially quite a large capacity). I don't know how many of these are happening, but from what Big G says Boris is also doing them.CarlottaVance said:Richard_Nabavi said:I've been invited to a Jeremy Hunt meeting with local party members at the weekend, but unfortunately I can't go. It would have been interesting to see how he goes down with the selectorate.
This was a Jeremy-solo show rather than a hustings?
Would be interesting to glean who is doing solos vs hustings (which are better publicised)
The last coronation went so well....
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Labour MPs actually doing anything other than signalling their outrage about Williamson yet?
Either Tory leader candidate come up with a plan to get an agreement through the Commons yet?0 -
Pretty clear Boris or Hunt won't in itself make any significant difference to Con electoral prospects.
What happens with Brexit is the key factor.
So if any Con supporter thinks Boris is more likely to get Brexit done then they should vote for Boris. And ditto Hunt.
Many may well think that neither will be able to make any progress with Brexit. But I suspect that if anyone can, Boris is more likely.0 -
Yes, it is incredible. Conservative MPs were recently faced with a similar choice. Most voted for race-baiting Boris. Perhaps in the real world, binary choices are not so clear-cut.rottenborough said:
Williamson will appear on Russia Today (RT) to defend his anti-racism efforts apparently.CarlottaVance said:In other news....
Quite simply, if Labour MPs cannot bring themselves to sign it [The Watson letter to remove Chris Williamson] then they can no longer claim to support Jewish community in Britain. By Friday lunchtime, what was most surprising about the letter was not the 120-odd names who have signed it - but the missing names of those who hadn’t.
Over the past few years, the likes of Emily Thornberry, Keir Starmer and Barry Gardiner and Angela Raynor have all presented themselves as allies of the Jewish community. They, along with politicians such as Andrew Gwynn, Sue Hayman and John Healey are serious omissions from the list of signatories to the letter from Labour shadow cabinet.
And what of Shami Chakrabarti, Dawn Butler - Labour's shadow equalities secretary in the shadow cabinet - or shadow chancellor John McDonnell, who has claimed to want to resolve the party's antisemitism crisis?
https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/labour-mps-who-did-not-sign-letter-to-remove-williamson-whip-have-nowhere-to-hide-1.485929
Quite incredible.0 -
I had understood that when temperatures rose beyond a certain point, ice cream sales fell rather than rose because it was too hot for people to go out to buy them.AndyJS said:Just switched on the BBC News Channel and a reporter standing in the middle of Carpentras in France is informing us that the hot weather is impelling people to buy ice creams.
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I don't think that, but Grieve is really letting the mask slip at last - a bitter, nasty and fanatical man who gets a pass for this sort of thing because he is intelligent and people like the ultimate goal he wants, irrespective of how unreasonable a man he otherwise is. Punishing the country unless a deal of any kind, which he would refuse to back under any circumstances, is awful.Philip_Thompson said:
I was against proroguing Parliament until Grieve came up with his latest wheeze to shutdown the government if he doesn't get his way. Now it seems like a good idea.FrankBooth said:There's another headline about proroguing parliament. Apparently Boris has refused to deny he would do it.
Can someone please point out that a Prime minister cannot prorogue parliament but merely request to the Queen that she do so? I'm afraid it is part of our constitutional problem that so much power is effectively invested in the PM because the Monarch never goes against their wishes. However conservatives are supposed to care for constitutional niceties. Boris as we know wants to be world king. Perhaps HMQ ought to look out?1 -
Just been and shared a cream tea with Jeremy Hunt. Didn't realise he was brought up in Dartmouth (his father was a senior figure at the Naval College). He answered a few questions seemed very relaxed. Spoke with "his people" - their assessment was he's catching up, but from a long way back.0
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I don't even know what debate he was in, as I don't remember people mentioning it here.AlastairMeeks said:How the mighty have fallen. Six weeks ago, Beto O'Rourke was part of the gang of four leading the pack of Democrat candidates. He was last traded at 50, lagging behind Tulsi Gabbard and with Cory Booker looking set to pass him in the other direction.
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The first one. He was completely anonymous.kle4 said:
I don't even know what debate he was in, as I don't remember people mentioning it here.AlastairMeeks said:How the mighty have fallen. Six weeks ago, Beto O'Rourke was part of the gang of four leading the pack of Democrat candidates. He was last traded at 50, lagging behind Tulsi Gabbard and with Cory Booker looking set to pass him in the other direction.
I have seen a few people on twitter boosting Julian Castro from that first debate. It might be worth keeping an eye on him. He was last traded on Betfair at 95.
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Nokinabalu said:
Cutting your toenails?Big_G_NorthWales said:I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go
Have been having replacement double glazed units fitted fo 8 that have misted and late pm was the only time the glazers could do it0 -
New Statesman has an interesting YouGov "what if" Autumn GE poll:
Scenario: Boris leading Con with policy "No deal if necessary". All other parties' policies and leaders as at present (Swinson LD leader).
Result: LD 30, Con 24, BRX 19, Lab 17.
What a result that would be!0 -
O'Rourke answered his opening question half in English, half in Spanish to show how diverse he is. That as the only memorable thing he did during the debate.
Mind you, Warren was hardly a shining light of brilliance. She was given some very easy questions and given every opportunity to repeat prepared lines. It was a pretty robotic and inauthentic performance.0 -
Mr. Mark, how do you see the contest going?0
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No, it is not that simple. Stalling Brexit increases the danger from the Faragists. Enacting Brexit, especially a no-deal Brexit, risks locking the Conservatives out of power for a generation if project fear turns out to have a point after all.MikeL said:Pretty clear Boris or Hunt won't in itself make any significant difference to Con electoral prospects.
What happens with Brexit is the key factor.
So if any Con supporter thinks Boris is more likely to get Brexit done then they should vote for Boris. And ditto Hunt.
Many may well think that neither will be able to make any progress with Brexit. But I suspect that if anyone can, Boris is more likely.0 -
And managed that while speaking for longer than anyone but Booker.AlastairMeeks said:
The first one. He was completely anonymous...kle4 said:
I don't even know what debate he was in, as I don't remember people mentioning it here.AlastairMeeks said:How the mighty have fallen. Six weeks ago, Beto O'Rourke was part of the gang of four leading the pack of Democrat candidates. He was last traded at 50, lagging behind Tulsi Gabbard and with Cory Booker looking set to pass him in the other direction.
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Indeed it would. Whatever Corbyn might want, surely there is no way Labour allow their policy not to change to avoid that scenario?MikeL said:New Statesman has an interesting YouGov "what if" Autumn GE poll:
Scenario: Boris leading Con with policy "No deal if necessary". All other parties' policies and leaders as at present (Swinson LD leader).
Result: LD 30, Con 24, BRX 19, Lab 17.
What a result that would be!0 -
Boris. The people there were being polite....Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Mark, how do you see the contest going?
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She can be pretty good in a lecture format - can be brilliant at explaining complex ideas simply (even if you take issue with the arguments) - but I suspect she might falter in a head to head debate.oxfordsimon said:O'Rourke answered his opening question half in English, half in Spanish to show how diverse he is. That as the only memorable thing he did during the debate.
Mind you, Warren was hardly a shining light of brilliance. She was given some very easy questions and given every opportunity to repeat prepared lines. It was a pretty robotic and inauthentic performance.
We could found out in the next round.0 -
"under either Boris or James" Do you mean James Hunt? The late 70's F1 World Champ?felix said:For the Tories - and effectively everyone else GE predictions based on current polling mean very little. As before everything depends mainly on the Brexit position after October - under either Boris or James. The other potential 'event' is with Corbyn - one finally senses that power may be ebbing away from him - and surely a more centrist Labour party would probably win.
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The LibDems must be hoping that a general election called over Brexit is fought and voted on about Brexit. That, to Theresa May's chagrin, is not what happened when last tried in 2017.MikeL said:New Statesman has an interesting YouGov "what if" Autumn GE poll:
Scenario: Boris leading Con with policy "No deal if necessary". All other parties' policies and leaders as at present (Swinson LD leader).
Result: LD 30, Con 24, BRX 19, Lab 17.
What a result that would be!0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nokinabalu said:
Cutting your toenails?Big_G_NorthWales said:I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go
Have been having replacement double glazed units fitted fo 8 that have misted and late pm was the only time the glazers could do it
Seems a very expensive way of avoiding Boris....
1 -
Only slightly worse chances of winning than Jeremy.eristdoof said:
"under either Boris or James" Do you mean James Hunt? The late 70's F1 World Champ?felix said:For the Tories - and effectively everyone else GE predictions based on current polling mean very little. As before everything depends mainly on the Brexit position after October - under either Boris or James. The other potential 'event' is with Corbyn - one finally senses that power may be ebbing away from him - and surely a more centrist Labour party would probably win.
Funnily enough this contest is happening as the same time as a contest to replace the Tory leader of my local council. I have no idea which of the candidates are Boris or Hunt fans though.0 -
0
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That is very kind of you and I can report that I have lost 14 kgs (2.20 stone) in the last 9 weeks and now feel much fitter, am controlling my diabetes, and am near the weight I was last at in my teens, 60 years agoCarlottaVance said:
If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.kinabalu said:
Cutting your toenails?Big_G_NorthWales said:I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go
Up to you.
It has required a complete change in diet but was no more difficult than stopping smoking 15 years ago3 -
Like Brexit, it's not worth any price to avoid Boris...but it is worth a high price.Nigelb said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nokinabalu said:
Cutting your toenails?Big_G_NorthWales said:I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go
Have been having replacement double glazed units fitted fo 8 that have misted and late pm was the only time the glazers could do it
Seems a very expensive way of avoiding Boris....0 -
Swinson PM with supply and confidence from whoever wins the immediate Labour leadership contest I think in that scenario.kle4 said:
Indeed it would. Whatever Corbyn might want, surely there is no way Labour allow their policy not to change to avoid that scenario?MikeL said:New Statesman has an interesting YouGov "what if" Autumn GE poll:
Scenario: Boris leading Con with policy "No deal if necessary". All other parties' policies and leaders as at present (Swinson LD leader).
Result: LD 30, Con 24, BRX 19, Lab 17.
What a result that would be!0 -
"Elections, according to all the political sages, are about the future. Biden didn’t seem to be pointed in that direction, and he didn’t demonstrate any sense of hurry to get there."
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/28/opinion/debate-harris-buttigieg-biden.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage0 -
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Jemand, der in einer Fremdsprache antwortet, nur um sein Publikum zu beeiendrucken, ist eigentlich a bit of an arseholeoxfordsimon said:O'Rourke answered his opening question half in English, half in Spanish to show how diverse he is. That as the only memorable thing he did during the debate.
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Bloody fire hell that is some serious amount of weight in a very short period of time.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is very kind of you and I can report that I have lost 14 kgs (2.20 stone) in the last 9 weeks and now feel much fitter, am controlling my diabetes, and am near the weight I was last at in my teens, 60 years agoCarlottaVance said:
If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.kinabalu said:
Cutting your toenails?Big_G_NorthWales said:I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go
Up to you.
It has required a complete change in diet but was no more difficult than stopping smoking 15 years ago0 -
I get it is a good poll for her, and I know seeking unity and all that is a cliche politicians have to use, but she cannot really think that stopping Brexit will not divide the county does she? The country is very divided on the subject and is only going to remain so whichever side emerges victorious. It's a question of which of the options is preferable at this point, perhaps even who can be the least divisive, but erasing the divide is not on the cards.Scott_P said:0 -
Well done Big_G. Highly impressive weight figures.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is very kind of you and I can report that I have lost 14 kgs (2.20 stone) in the last 9 weeks and now feel much fitter, am controlling my diabetes, and am near the weight I was last at in my teens, 60 years agoCarlottaVance said:
If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.kinabalu said:
Cutting your toenails?Big_G_NorthWales said:I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go
Up to you.
It has required a complete change in diet but was no more difficult than stopping smoking 15 years ago0 -
£1,100 to be preciseNigelb said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nokinabalu said:
Cutting your toenails?Big_G_NorthWales said:I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go
Have been having replacement double glazed units fitted fo 8 that have misted and late pm was the only time the glazers could do it
Seems a very expensive way of avoiding Boris....0 -
It was needed and it is permanentFrancisUrquhart said:
Bloody fire hell that is some serious amount of weight in a very short period of time.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is very kind of you and I can report that I have lost 14 kgs (2.20 stone) in the last 9 weeks and now feel much fitter, am controlling my diabetes, and am near the weight I was last at in my teens, 60 years agoCarlottaVance said:
If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.kinabalu said:
Cutting your toenails?Big_G_NorthWales said:I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go
Up to you.
It has required a complete change in diet but was no more difficult than stopping smoking 15 years ago0 -
This is one of the better articles on Biden's busing history, and the evolution of his position:Richard_Nabavi said:
It was a very complicated thing, and very controversial at the time.Pulpstar said:I should probably know this seeing as I'm betting on the thing but what was "bussing".
& Was it a good or a bad thing ?
Larry Sabato's take on the issue as raised last night is interesting:
Harris powerfully reproached Biden for his opposition to school busing to achieve racial balance in the 1970s, noting that she had benefitted from busing. It was another time and place, and older observers (including one of us) recall that plenty of Democrats were damaged or defeated because of their support of busing, which was greatly unpopular among whites and also disliked by many blacks, because it limited extracurricular activities and resulted in many students leaving home very early and returning home after dark. But none of that matters now, and Biden is paying a price. Biden didn’t answer these criticisms well, and some of his staff privately said he hadn’t followed the script they’d devised.
http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2-debates-20-candidates-26-hours/
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/04/joe-biden-integration-school-busing-120968
I'm not entirely unsympathetic - after all, his political career was on the line - but he made a choice (as Jesse Helms' ironic comment emphasises), and the idea that he should not be challenged on this, particularly as he celebrates his civil rights record, is absurd.0 -
What happens when the SNP demand the referendum as their price for joining in the fun...Pulpstar said:
Swinson PM with supply and confidence from whoever wins the immediate Labour leadership contest I think in that scenario.kle4 said:
Indeed it would. Whatever Corbyn might want, surely there is no way Labour allow their policy not to change to avoid that scenario?MikeL said:New Statesman has an interesting YouGov "what if" Autumn GE poll:
Scenario: Boris leading Con with policy "No deal if necessary". All other parties' policies and leaders as at present (Swinson LD leader).
Result: LD 30, Con 24, BRX 19, Lab 17.
What a result that would be!
Swinson could find herself without a constituency...0 -
A bargain, then !Big_G_NorthWales said:
£1,100 to be preciseNigelb said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nokinabalu said:
Cutting your toenails?Big_G_NorthWales said:I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go
Have been having replacement double glazed units fitted fo 8 that have misted and late pm was the only time the glazers could do it
Seems a very expensive way of avoiding Boris....0 -
Congrats! I was 23.5 stone at the start of April, and am now 5.5 stone lighter by the same method. Only 6 stone to go...Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is very kind of you and I can report that I have lost 14 kgs (2.20 stone) in the last 9 weeks and now feel much fitter, am controlling my diabetes, and am near the weight I was last at in my teens, 60 years agoCarlottaVance said:
If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.kinabalu said:
Cutting your toenails?Big_G_NorthWales said:I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go
Up to you.
It has required a complete change in diet but was no more difficult than stopping smoking 15 years ago1 -
Thank you so much. Stopped all bread, cakes, choc biscs, chocs, all fizzy drinks and ate much smaller portions, including soup plus yogurt only teas 3 days a weekrottenborough said:
Well done Big_G. Highly impressive weight figures.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is very kind of you and I can report that I have lost 14 kgs (2.20 stone) in the last 9 weeks and now feel much fitter, am controlling my diabetes, and am near the weight I was last at in my teens, 60 years agoCarlottaVance said:
If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.kinabalu said:
Cutting your toenails?Big_G_NorthWales said:I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go
Up to you.
It has required a complete change in diet but was no more difficult than stopping smoking 15 years ago
I do like all fruit and veg and it helps greatly1 -
Um, and maybe the fact that they KILLED millions? Jeez.rottenborough said:0 -
