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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020 could be the election that the US finally chooses a wom

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bottom line is that desegregation would not have happened without Federal action, and Biden still doesn't acknowledge being somewhat on the wrong side of that argument.
    That it was unpopular at the time isn't really the point today.

    Personally I thought Kamala Harris' attack on him was unfair, unreasonable, shouty and frankly rather obnoxious, but I'm not the target market and I expect it will have gone down well.
    In what way was it unfair ?

    (And his response was pretty 'shouty', too.)
    It's unreasonable because you can't judge a politician's position in a 1960s or 1970s controversy (and this was VERY controversial) by received wisdom in 2019 which ignores all the reasons why it was controversial at the time. It's unfair because any young candidate with no significant national record doesn't have to justify their previous positions in the same way. Also she shouted over him so he couldn't actually make his point about the Federal government aspect of it.

    But I agree that many Dem primary voters will be judging his 1960s/1970s record, or a caricature of it, by 2019 criteria, which is why I think it was probably effective. And maybe you could argue that being able to shout simplistic messages is just what the Dems need to counter Trump. I'm not sure about that - I think Elizabeth Warren's more detailed policy-based approach might be a better counter - but I can see that some of the target audience would like the shoutiness.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    Brom said:

    Pretty obvious given most of the 41% would never consider Tory or even have their best interests at heart.
    The net rating of those that voted Tory at GE2017 on good PM

    Hunt plus 19

    Johnson plus 16

    Hunt’s ratings are being driven by people who voted Tory in 2017.

    So fake news from you.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bottom line is that desegregation would not have happened without Federal action, and Biden still doesn't acknowledge being somewhat on the wrong side of that argument.
    That it was unpopular at the time isn't really the point today.

    Personally I thought Kamala Harris' attack on him was unfair, unreasonable, shouty and frankly rather obnoxious, but I'm not the target market and I expect it will have gone down well.
    In what way was it unfair ?

    (And his response was pretty 'shouty', too.)
    It's unreasonable because you can't judge a politician's position in a 1960s or 1970s controversy (and this was VERY controversial) by received wisdom in 2019 which ignores all the reasons why it was controversial at the time. It's unfair because any young candidate with no significant national record doesn't have to justify their previous positions in the same way. Also she shouted over him so he couldn't actually make his point about the Federal government aspect of it.

    But I agree that many Dem primary voters will be judging his 1960s/1970s record, or a caricature of it, by 2019 criteria, which is why I think it was probably effective. And maybe you could argue that being able to shout simplistic messages is just what the Dems need to counter Trump. I'm not sure about that - I think Elizabeth Warren's more detailed policy-based approach might be a better counter - but I can see that some of the target audience would like the shoutiness.
    Is that not partly a function of his age? And he's going to be playing the "experience" card for all it's worth.

    I've long thought that this is no contest for old men.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Brom said:

    Pretty obvious given most of the 41% would never consider Tory or even have their best interests at heart.
    If the Tories are going to rely upon the views of 29% of the population, they're setting a low cap on their maximum vote.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Is that not partly a function of his age? And he's going to be playing the "experience" card for all it's worth.

    I've long thought that this is no contest for old men.

    As my wife's first boss was fond of saying, someone's greatest strength is often also their greatest weakness. Experience comes with baggage.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Is that not partly a function of his age? And he's going to be playing the "experience" card for all it's worth.

    I've long thought that this is no contest for old men.

    As my wife's first boss was fond of saying, someone's greatest strength is often also their greatest weakness. Experience comes with baggage.
    Oddly, I'm just back from lunch with someone who used that expression in the meeting beforehand.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    macisback said:

    The final scoreboard didn't show a photo finish. Trump pretty much won all the states he wanted, some were close but won all the same.

    It was very close. The in running betting on the night was a roller coaster. It could have gone either way until quite late on. Tremendously exciting. I remember it as if it were yesterday.

    Trump's win was a quite remarkable political achievement. It's wrong to downplay it by suggesting it was in any way shape or form easy. It factually was not. It was a tough tough battle and he shaded it. C'est ca.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited June 2019
    Over on Predictit, Marianne Williamson's price has gone up to 2 cents which would equate to odds of 50).

    I've bought £2 at 480, hopefully she can be the next flavour of the day no hope surger on Betfair after Gabbard and Yang.
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897
    macisback said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt it, Trump will find Warren and Harris even easier to beat than Hillary, both are more left liberal than her, especially Warren and neither are particularly charismatic. With the advantage of incumbency Trump could beat either in both the popular vote and electoral college.

    Biden and Sanders poll much better v Trump than Warren or Harris do.

    However the US arguably already has chosen a woman to lead them already, Nancy Pelosi is Speaker of the House of Representatives which is US equivalent of the UK Prime Minister, even if there has been no female President as US Head of State yet

    Let's not rewrite history so soon after the event. He did not find it easy to beat Hillary. It was a photo finish after a long and bruising campaign.
    The final scoreboard didn't show a photo finish. Trump pretty much won all the states he wanted, some were close but won all the same.
    In a photo finish the final results show the winning horse won, it was close but it still won all the same.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    TOPPING said:

    No Tories I would hope.

    Two of my friends are Tories I am distressed to report.

    And even more distressing to report - I only have two friends.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Dodgy sample ! It’s not possible for the great leader to not be the Tory Messiah!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283

    Brom said:

    Pretty obvious given most of the 41% would never consider Tory or even have their best interests at heart.
    If the Tories are going to rely upon the views of 29% of the population, they're setting a low cap on their maximum vote.
    Our resident polling expert (sic) told us yesterday that the Tories’ vote share cap, even under the great philanderer, is now in the region of 36%.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Nigelb said:

    (OT F1)
    Should Bottas really be double Hamilton's odds for Austria quality ?
    It'a been quite a good track for him.

    Simple answer: No.

    Slightly longer answer: the red and silver cars are quite close together here, and it’s the shortest (in time) lap of the year so it’s likely there will be hundredths in it on Saturday afternoon. Lewis is rightly favourite and is the in-form driver, but has been known to go balls-out for the perfect lap and fall short as a result.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283
    Dadge said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "A Frenchman who killed his parents, wife and children after pretending for two decades to be a successful doctor, in a case that inspired a book and films, has been released on parole after 26 years in jail, his lawyer said Friday.

    Jean-Claude Romand murdered his parents, wife and two children in 1993 as they were about to learn about his double life."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/28/notorious-fake-doctor-killed-entire-family-found-freed-26-years/

    I don't remember that case, but I can guarantee you there are thousands of people who are pretending to their family that they are doing a job that they aren't. Cases of people leaving for "work" when they don't actually have any work to go to are sadly commonplace. Thankfully these lies rarely lead to murder, but they do sometimes lead to suicide.
    Yep. My father kept that going for six whole months.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    I've been invited to a Jeremy Hunt meeting with local party members at the weekend, but unfortunately I can't go. It would have been interesting to see how he goes down with the selectorate.
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897
    Brom said:


    It's pretty clear that Biden and Trump will have an overlap and fish in a similar pool. Biden will certainly win votes from Trump. Can anyone say that Harris will win round any Trump 2016 voters? She's relying on unlocking non 2016 voters which is a much more dangerous business. She would be a huge risk.

    I'm sure the key to winning the election is to get those who voted Obama in 2012 but who didn't vote in 2016 to vote again, especially in Pa,Mi,Wi. Trump will gain very few new votes. His popularity is holding up amongst those who voted for him, but there aren't many who are "Trump Neutral" to win over this time.
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897
    IanB2 said:

    Dadge said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "A Frenchman who killed his parents, wife and children after pretending for two decades to be a successful doctor, in a case that inspired a book and films, has been released on parole after 26 years in jail, his lawyer said Friday.

    Jean-Claude Romand murdered his parents, wife and two children in 1993 as they were about to learn about his double life."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/28/notorious-fake-doctor-killed-entire-family-found-freed-26-years/

    I don't remember that case, but I can guarantee you there are thousands of people who are pretending to their family that they are doing a job that they aren't. Cases of people leaving for "work" when they don't actually have any work to go to are sadly commonplace. Thankfully these lies rarely lead to murder, but they do sometimes lead to suicide.
    Yep. My father kept that going for six whole months.
    How did he keep it secret? I mean didn't the family notice that there was no money anymore or that the savings were vanishing?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283
    YouGov’s summary: “If the Conservatives are looking towards Boris Johnson as a magic election winner, the evidence is simply no longer there. A decade ago he had a reputation as the Tory who could reach voters other Tories could not, and significantly outperformed his party in the 2012 mayoral election. However our latest polling does not suggest he offers any innate electoral advantage over Jeremy Hunt.

    The only different seems to be that the LibDems and Greens do marginally better under Johnson and the BXP marginally better under Hunt.
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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    Scott_P said:
    Mr Johnson's genius is of course this also resolves childhood obescity issues at the same time. So this will save the NHS a further £350b a day, week, minute or whatever it was. Brilliant!
    Unicorn steaks anyone?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,311

    I've been invited to a Jeremy Hunt meeting with local party members at the weekend, but unfortunately I can't go. It would have been interesting to see how he goes down with the selectorate.

    I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    Dadge said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "A Frenchman who killed his parents, wife and children after pretending for two decades to be a successful doctor, in a case that inspired a book and films, has been released on parole after 26 years in jail, his lawyer said Friday.

    Jean-Claude Romand murdered his parents, wife and two children in 1993 as they were about to learn about his double life."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/28/notorious-fake-doctor-killed-entire-family-found-freed-26-years/

    I don't remember that case, but I can guarantee you there are thousands of people who are pretending to their family that they are doing a job that they aren't. Cases of people leaving for "work" when they don't actually have any work to go to are sadly commonplace. Thankfully these lies rarely lead to murder, but they do sometimes lead to suicide.
    Are you thinking of Vince Cable?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bottom line is that desegregation would not have happened without Federal action, and Biden still doesn't acknowledge being somewhat on the wrong side of that argument.
    That it was unpopular at the time isn't really the point today.

    Personally I thought Kamala Harris' attack on him was unfair, unreasonable, shouty and frankly rather obnoxious, but I'm not the target market and I expect it will have gone down well.
    In what way was it unfair ?

    (And his response was pretty 'shouty', too.)
    It's unreasonable because you can't judge a politician's position in a 1960s or 1970s controversy (and this was VERY controversial) by received wisdom in 2019 which ignores all the reasons why it was controversial at the time. It's unfair because any young candidate with no significant national record doesn't have to justify their previous positions in the same way. Also she shouted over him so he couldn't actually make his point about the Federal government aspect of it.

    But I agree that many Dem primary voters will be judging his 1960s/1970s record, or a caricature of it, by 2019 criteria, which is why I think it was probably effective. And maybe you could argue that being able to shout simplistic messages is just what the Dems need to counter Trump. I'm not sure about that - I think Elizabeth Warren's more detailed policy-based approach might be a better counter - but I can see that some of the target audience would like the shoutiness.
    And yet this was clearly prompted by his recent fond reminiscences of doing deals with the segregationists - 'he never called me boy...etc'.

    I'm just old enough to know it was controversial at the time, and I understand the expediency of Biden taking the stance he did, in a state south of the Mason Dixon line. But I can't see how it is 'ignoring all the reasons it was controversial at the time'. Every American alive back then - including Harris herself - is well aware of that.
    The point is that arguably Biden is still a creature of that time, and it's extraordinary to expect his primary opponents to ignore his record when his essential electoral appeal is that record. 'Unfair' is just silly in this context.

    In the context of 1960, Biden was a liberal. In 2019, he is a conservative, which is the real point - and also his electoral argument. Countering that argument is simply politics (as your second paragraph acknowledges).
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226

    I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go

    Cutting your toenails?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283
    eristdoof said:

    IanB2 said:

    Dadge said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "A Frenchman who killed his parents, wife and children after pretending for two decades to be a successful doctor, in a case that inspired a book and films, has been released on parole after 26 years in jail, his lawyer said Friday.

    Jean-Claude Romand murdered his parents, wife and two children in 1993 as they were about to learn about his double life."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/28/notorious-fake-doctor-killed-entire-family-found-freed-26-years/

    I don't remember that case, but I can guarantee you there are thousands of people who are pretending to their family that they are doing a job that they aren't. Cases of people leaving for "work" when they don't actually have any work to go to are sadly commonplace. Thankfully these lies rarely lead to murder, but they do sometimes lead to suicide.
    Yep. My father kept that going for six whole months.
    How did he keep it secret? I mean didn't the family notice that there was no money anymore or that the savings were vanishing?
    His business was already in difficulty so there wasn’t much money coming in beforehand, and we were already living on savings from the good times. It was six months before he owned up to its bankruptcy.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    (OT F1)
    Should Bottas really be double Hamilton's odds for Austria quality ?
    It'a been quite a good track for him.

    Simple answer: No....
    As his car is currently missing its front wheels, that's abundantly clear !
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    eristdoof said:

    Brom said:


    It's pretty clear that Biden and Trump will have an overlap and fish in a similar pool. Biden will certainly win votes from Trump. Can anyone say that Harris will win round any Trump 2016 voters? She's relying on unlocking non 2016 voters which is a much more dangerous business. She would be a huge risk.

    I'm sure the key to winning the election is to get those who voted Obama in 2012 but who didn't vote in 2016 to vote again, especially in Pa,Mi,Wi. Trump will gain very few new votes. His popularity is holding up amongst those who voted for him, but there aren't many who are "Trump Neutral" to win over this time.
    A vote won from Trump is worth twice as much. In the electoral college system I would suggest that becomes particularly important.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: windy problems in Austria. Half the top 6 went off-track significantly, Bottas and Verstappen crashing and Vettel just about keeping his car intact.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    Pretty obvious given most of the 41% would never consider Tory or even have their best interests at heart.
    If the Tories are going to rely upon the views of 29% of the population, they're setting a low cap on their maximum vote.
    I would argue that at this stage if you get 29% in a general election you will win it. But in fairness 29 + 41 = 70 and maybe it's that spare 30% Boris might need to be winning.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,681
    kinabalu said:

    I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go

    Cutting your toenails?
    If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.

    Up to you.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Dadge said:
    That was my point...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited June 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    (OT F1)
    Should Bottas really be double Hamilton's odds for Austria quality ?
    It'a been quite a good track for him.

    Simple answer: No....
    As his car is currently missing its front wheels, that's abundantly clear !
    Ah bugger. (I’m not watching live, travelling today). Didn’t stop Lewis in Canada though, after he binned it on Friday.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,681

    I've been invited to a Jeremy Hunt meeting with local party members at the weekend, but unfortunately I can't go. It would have been interesting to see how he goes down with the selectorate.


    This was a Jeremy-solo show rather than a hustings?

    Would be interesting to glean who is doing solos vs hustings (which are better publicised)
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226

    If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.

    Up to you.

    I don't think he will take it in the way that you have.

    But if he does of course I will.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2019

    I've been invited to a Jeremy Hunt meeting with local party members at the weekend, but unfortunately I can't go. It would have been interesting to see how he goes down with the selectorate.


    This was a Jeremy-solo show rather than a hustings?

    Would be interesting to glean who is doing solos vs hustings (which are better publicised)
    Yes, a solo event, I imagine paid for by his campaign (it's a hired venue with potentially quite a large capacity). I don't know how many of these are happening, but from what Big G says Boris is also doing them.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    (OT F1)
    Should Bottas really be double Hamilton's odds for Austria quality ?
    It'a been quite a good track for him.

    Simple answer: No....
    As his car is currently missing its front wheels, that's abundantly clear !
    Ah bugger. (I’m not watching live, travelling today). Didn’t stop Lewis in Canada though, after he binned it on Friday.
    If it's as windy tomorrow, could be a real lottery (though Hamilton seems to be able to navigate changeable conditions better than anyone else).
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. B, I used the same word (lottery) in my pre-qualifying blog, which I'll finish and put up at the usual sort of time.

    Hamilton is good at adapting to tricky conditions, but nobody's perfect, and in the race someone else cocking up could affect him too.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,681
    kinabalu said:

    If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.

    Up to you.

    I don't think he will take it in the way that you have.
    What way did you intend he take it?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626

    kinabalu said:

    If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.

    Up to you.

    I don't think he will take it in the way that you have.
    What way did you intend he take it?
    As in, I have a prior engagement... washing my hair.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    For the Tories - and effectively everyone else GE predictions based on current polling mean very little. As before everything depends mainly on the Brexit position after October - under either Boris or James. The other potential 'event' is with Corbyn - one finally senses that power may be ebbing away from him - and surely a more centrist Labour party would probably win.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626

    Mr. B, I used the same word (lottery) in my pre-qualifying blog, which I'll finish and put up at the usual sort of time.

    Hamilton is good at adapting to tricky conditions, but nobody's perfect, and in the race someone else cocking up could affect him too.

    Great minds, MD...
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,681

    I've been invited to a Jeremy Hunt meeting with local party members at the weekend, but unfortunately I can't go. It would have been interesting to see how he goes down with the selectorate.


    This was a Jeremy-solo show rather than a hustings?

    Would be interesting to glean who is doing solos vs hustings (which are better publicised)
    Yes, a solo event, I imagine paid for by his campaign (it's a hired venue with potentially quite a large capacity). I don't know how many of these are happening, but from what Big G says Boris is also doing them.
    Interesting - clearly both are taking it seriously, which is good.

    The last coronation went so well....
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    How the mighty have fallen. Six weeks ago, Beto O'Rourke was part of the gang of four leading the pack of Democrat candidates. He was last traded at 50, lagging behind Tulsi Gabbard and with Cory Booker looking set to pass him in the other direction.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited June 2019

    How the mighty have fallen. Six weeks ago, Beto O'Rourke was part of the gang of four leading the pack of Democrat candidates. He was last traded at 50, lagging behind Tulsi Gabbard and with Cory Booker looking set to pass him in the other direction.

    Well he launched with zero policies.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,681
    One line struck me in the debate (which Im sure he has used before) was Buttiegieg's about the environment in 2055 "When I am as old as President Trump is now"....
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. B< aye, but fools are never far apart! :p
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    You know how some tweets don’t age very well..

    https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1020255794024132609?s=21
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    Just switched on the BBC News Channel and a reporter standing in the middle of Carpentras in France is informing us that the hot weather is impelling people to buy ice creams.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    AndyJS said:

    Just switched on the BBC News Channel and a reporter standing in the middle of Carpentras in France is informing us that the hot weather is impelling people to buy ice creams.

    Probably not fake news, then.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    edited June 2019
    Nigelb said:

    As in, I have a prior engagement... washing my hair.

    Yes.

    Just a variation on the old Peter Cook line when asked if he was free to meet a particular dignitary one evening. Checks diary and -

    "Unfortunately I find that I am watching television."

    That's all.

    Don't see why 'Big G' would not chuckle (if it's his kind of joke).
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,249
    45. C degree recorded in France at 3pm.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,681
    edited June 2019
    In other news....

    Quite simply, if Labour MPs cannot bring themselves to sign it [The Watson letter to remove Chris Williamson] then they can no longer claim to support Jewish community in Britain. By Friday lunchtime, what was most surprising about the letter was not the 120-odd names who have signed it - but the missing names of those who hadn’t.

    Over the past few years, the likes of Emily Thornberry, Keir Starmer and Barry Gardiner and Angela Raynor have all presented themselves as allies of the Jewish community. They, along with politicians such as Andrew Gwynn, Sue Hayman and John Healey are serious omissions from the list of signatories to the letter from Labour shadow cabinet.

    And what of Shami Chakrabarti, Dawn Butler - Labour's shadow equalities secretary in the shadow cabinet - or shadow chancellor John McDonnell, who has claimed to want to resolve the party's antisemitism crisis?


    https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/labour-mps-who-did-not-sign-letter-to-remove-williamson-whip-have-nowhere-to-hide-1.485929
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Ho, ho, ho...

    Trump Jokes to Putin They Should ‘Get Rid’ of Journalists
    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-jokes-to-putin-they-should-get-rid-of-journalists
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,249

    In other news....

    Quite simply, if Labour MPs cannot bring themselves to sign it [The Watson letter to remove Chris Williamson] then they can no longer claim to support Jewish community in Britain. By Friday lunchtime, what was most surprising about the letter was not the 120-odd names who have signed it - but the missing names of those who hadn’t.

    Over the past few years, the likes of Emily Thornberry, Keir Starmer and Barry Gardiner and Angela Raynor have all presented themselves as allies of the Jewish community. They, along with politicians such as Andrew Gwynn, Sue Hayman and John Healey are serious omissions from the list of signatories to the letter from Labour shadow cabinet.

    And what of Shami Chakrabarti, Dawn Butler - Labour's shadow equalities secretary in the shadow cabinet - or shadow chancellor John McDonnell, who has claimed to want to resolve the party's antisemitism crisis?


    https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/labour-mps-who-did-not-sign-letter-to-remove-williamson-whip-have-nowhere-to-hide-1.485929

    Williamson will appear on Russia Today (RT) to defend his anti-racism efforts apparently.

    Quite incredible.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,681
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.

    Up to you.

    I don't think he will take it in the way that you have.
    What way did you intend he take it?
    As in, I have a prior engagement... washing my hair.
    I'm sure you have plenty of experience in the matter...
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,249

    I've been invited to a Jeremy Hunt meeting with local party members at the weekend, but unfortunately I can't go. It would have been interesting to see how he goes down with the selectorate.


    This was a Jeremy-solo show rather than a hustings?

    Would be interesting to glean who is doing solos vs hustings (which are better publicised)
    Yes, a solo event, I imagine paid for by his campaign (it's a hired venue with potentially quite a large capacity). I don't know how many of these are happening, but from what Big G says Boris is also doing them.
    Interesting - clearly both are taking it seriously, which is good.

    The last coronation went so well....
    If a constituency association invites one candidate, they have to offer a similar invitation to the other according to HuffPo. It is in the rules of the election.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    Labour MPs actually doing anything other than signalling their outrage about Williamson yet?

    Either Tory leader candidate come up with a plan to get an agreement through the Commons yet?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,288
    Pretty clear Boris or Hunt won't in itself make any significant difference to Con electoral prospects.

    What happens with Brexit is the key factor.

    So if any Con supporter thinks Boris is more likely to get Brexit done then they should vote for Boris. And ditto Hunt.

    Many may well think that neither will be able to make any progress with Brexit. But I suspect that if anyone can, Boris is more likely.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    In other news....

    Quite simply, if Labour MPs cannot bring themselves to sign it [The Watson letter to remove Chris Williamson] then they can no longer claim to support Jewish community in Britain. By Friday lunchtime, what was most surprising about the letter was not the 120-odd names who have signed it - but the missing names of those who hadn’t.

    Over the past few years, the likes of Emily Thornberry, Keir Starmer and Barry Gardiner and Angela Raynor have all presented themselves as allies of the Jewish community. They, along with politicians such as Andrew Gwynn, Sue Hayman and John Healey are serious omissions from the list of signatories to the letter from Labour shadow cabinet.

    And what of Shami Chakrabarti, Dawn Butler - Labour's shadow equalities secretary in the shadow cabinet - or shadow chancellor John McDonnell, who has claimed to want to resolve the party's antisemitism crisis?


    https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/labour-mps-who-did-not-sign-letter-to-remove-williamson-whip-have-nowhere-to-hide-1.485929

    Williamson will appear on Russia Today (RT) to defend his anti-racism efforts apparently.

    Quite incredible.
    Yes, it is incredible. Conservative MPs were recently faced with a similar choice. Most voted for race-baiting Boris. Perhaps in the real world, binary choices are not so clear-cut.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    AndyJS said:

    Just switched on the BBC News Channel and a reporter standing in the middle of Carpentras in France is informing us that the hot weather is impelling people to buy ice creams.

    I had understood that when temperatures rose beyond a certain point, ice cream sales fell rather than rose because it was too hot for people to go out to buy them.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780

    There's another headline about proroguing parliament. Apparently Boris has refused to deny he would do it.

    Can someone please point out that a Prime minister cannot prorogue parliament but merely request to the Queen that she do so? I'm afraid it is part of our constitutional problem that so much power is effectively invested in the PM because the Monarch never goes against their wishes. However conservatives are supposed to care for constitutional niceties. Boris as we know wants to be world king. Perhaps HMQ ought to look out?

    I was against proroguing Parliament until Grieve came up with his latest wheeze to shutdown the government if he doesn't get his way. Now it seems like a good idea.
    I don't think that, but Grieve is really letting the mask slip at last - a bitter, nasty and fanatical man who gets a pass for this sort of thing because he is intelligent and people like the ultimate goal he wants, irrespective of how unreasonable a man he otherwise is. Punishing the country unless a deal of any kind, which he would refuse to back under any circumstances, is awful.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Just been and shared a cream tea with Jeremy Hunt. Didn't realise he was brought up in Dartmouth (his father was a senior figure at the Naval College). He answered a few questions seemed very relaxed. Spoke with "his people" - their assessment was he's catching up, but from a long way back.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780

    How the mighty have fallen. Six weeks ago, Beto O'Rourke was part of the gang of four leading the pack of Democrat candidates. He was last traded at 50, lagging behind Tulsi Gabbard and with Cory Booker looking set to pass him in the other direction.

    I don't even know what debate he was in, as I don't remember people mentioning it here.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    How the mighty have fallen. Six weeks ago, Beto O'Rourke was part of the gang of four leading the pack of Democrat candidates. He was last traded at 50, lagging behind Tulsi Gabbard and with Cory Booker looking set to pass him in the other direction.

    I don't even know what debate he was in, as I don't remember people mentioning it here.
    The first one. He was completely anonymous.

    I have seen a few people on twitter boosting Julian Castro from that first debate. It might be worth keeping an eye on him. He was last traded on Betfair at 95.

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,311
    kinabalu said:

    I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go

    Cutting your toenails?
    No

    Have been having replacement double glazed units fitted fo 8 that have misted and late pm was the only time the glazers could do it
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,288
    edited June 2019
    New Statesman has an interesting YouGov "what if" Autumn GE poll:

    Scenario: Boris leading Con with policy "No deal if necessary". All other parties' policies and leaders as at present (Swinson LD leader).

    Result: LD 30, Con 24, BRX 19, Lab 17.

    What a result that would be!
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    O'Rourke answered his opening question half in English, half in Spanish to show how diverse he is. That as the only memorable thing he did during the debate.

    Mind you, Warren was hardly a shining light of brilliance. She was given some very easy questions and given every opportunity to repeat prepared lines. It was a pretty robotic and inauthentic performance.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. Mark, how do you see the contest going?
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MikeL said:

    Pretty clear Boris or Hunt won't in itself make any significant difference to Con electoral prospects.

    What happens with Brexit is the key factor.

    So if any Con supporter thinks Boris is more likely to get Brexit done then they should vote for Boris. And ditto Hunt.

    Many may well think that neither will be able to make any progress with Brexit. But I suspect that if anyone can, Boris is more likely.

    No, it is not that simple. Stalling Brexit increases the danger from the Faragists. Enacting Brexit, especially a no-deal Brexit, risks locking the Conservatives out of power for a generation if project fear turns out to have a point after all.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626

    kle4 said:

    How the mighty have fallen. Six weeks ago, Beto O'Rourke was part of the gang of four leading the pack of Democrat candidates. He was last traded at 50, lagging behind Tulsi Gabbard and with Cory Booker looking set to pass him in the other direction.

    I don't even know what debate he was in, as I don't remember people mentioning it here.
    The first one. He was completely anonymous...

    And managed that while speaking for longer than anyone but Booker.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    MikeL said:

    New Statesman has an interesting YouGov "what if" Autumn GE poll:

    Scenario: Boris leading Con with policy "No deal if necessary". All other parties' policies and leaders as at present (Swinson LD leader).

    Result: LD 30, Con 24, BRX 19, Lab 17.

    What a result that would be!

    Indeed it would. Whatever Corbyn might want, surely there is no way Labour allow their policy not to change to avoid that scenario?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Mr. Mark, how do you see the contest going?

    Boris. The people there were being polite....
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626

    O'Rourke answered his opening question half in English, half in Spanish to show how diverse he is. That as the only memorable thing he did during the debate.

    Mind you, Warren was hardly a shining light of brilliance. She was given some very easy questions and given every opportunity to repeat prepared lines. It was a pretty robotic and inauthentic performance.

    She can be pretty good in a lecture format - can be brilliant at explaining complex ideas simply (even if you take issue with the arguments) - but I suspect she might falter in a head to head debate.

    We could found out in the next round.
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897
    felix said:

    For the Tories - and effectively everyone else GE predictions based on current polling mean very little. As before everything depends mainly on the Brexit position after October - under either Boris or James. The other potential 'event' is with Corbyn - one finally senses that power may be ebbing away from him - and surely a more centrist Labour party would probably win.

    "under either Boris or James" Do you mean James Hunt? The late 70's F1 World Champ?
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MikeL said:

    New Statesman has an interesting YouGov "what if" Autumn GE poll:

    Scenario: Boris leading Con with policy "No deal if necessary". All other parties' policies and leaders as at present (Swinson LD leader).

    Result: LD 30, Con 24, BRX 19, Lab 17.

    What a result that would be!

    The LibDems must be hoping that a general election called over Brexit is fought and voted on about Brexit. That, to Theresa May's chagrin, is not what happened when last tried in 2017.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626

    kinabalu said:

    I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go

    Cutting your toenails?
    No

    Have been having replacement double glazed units fitted fo 8 that have misted and late pm was the only time the glazers could do it

    Seems a very expensive way of avoiding Boris.... :smile:
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    edited June 2019
    eristdoof said:

    felix said:

    For the Tories - and effectively everyone else GE predictions based on current polling mean very little. As before everything depends mainly on the Brexit position after October - under either Boris or James. The other potential 'event' is with Corbyn - one finally senses that power may be ebbing away from him - and surely a more centrist Labour party would probably win.

    "under either Boris or James" Do you mean James Hunt? The late 70's F1 World Champ?
    Only slightly worse chances of winning than Jeremy.

    Funnily enough this contest is happening as the same time as a contest to replace the Tory leader of my local council. I have no idea which of the candidates are Boris or Hunt fans though.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,311

    kinabalu said:

    I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go

    Cutting your toenails?
    If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.

    Up to you.
    That is very kind of you and I can report that I have lost 14 kgs (2.20 stone) in the last 9 weeks and now feel much fitter, am controlling my diabetes, and am near the weight I was last at in my teens, 60 years ago

    It has required a complete change in diet but was no more difficult than stopping smoking 15 years ago
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go

    Cutting your toenails?
    No

    Have been having replacement double glazed units fitted fo 8 that have misted and late pm was the only time the glazers could do it

    Seems a very expensive way of avoiding Boris.... :smile:
    Like Brexit, it's not worth any price to avoid Boris...but it is worth a high price.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    New Statesman has an interesting YouGov "what if" Autumn GE poll:

    Scenario: Boris leading Con with policy "No deal if necessary". All other parties' policies and leaders as at present (Swinson LD leader).

    Result: LD 30, Con 24, BRX 19, Lab 17.

    What a result that would be!

    Indeed it would. Whatever Corbyn might want, surely there is no way Labour allow their policy not to change to avoid that scenario?
    Swinson PM with supply and confidence from whoever wins the immediate Labour leadership contest I think in that scenario.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,249
    edited June 2019
    "Elections, according to all the political sages, are about the future. Biden didn’t seem to be pointed in that direction, and he didn’t demonstrate any sense of hurry to get there."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/28/opinion/debate-harris-buttigieg-biden.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897

    O'Rourke answered his opening question half in English, half in Spanish to show how diverse he is. That as the only memorable thing he did during the debate.

    Jemand, der in einer Fremdsprache antwortet, nur um sein Publikum zu beeiendrucken, ist eigentlich a bit of an arsehole :wink:
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    kinabalu said:

    I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go

    Cutting your toenails?
    If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.

    Up to you.
    That is very kind of you and I can report that I have lost 14 kgs (2.20 stone) in the last 9 weeks and now feel much fitter, am controlling my diabetes, and am near the weight I was last at in my teens, 60 years ago

    It has required a complete change in diet but was no more difficult than stopping smoking 15 years ago
    Bloody fire hell that is some serious amount of weight in a very short period of time.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    Scott_P said:
    I get it is a good poll for her, and I know seeking unity and all that is a cliche politicians have to use, but she cannot really think that stopping Brexit will not divide the county does she? The country is very divided on the subject and is only going to remain so whichever side emerges victorious. It's a question of which of the options is preferable at this point, perhaps even who can be the least divisive, but erasing the divide is not on the cards.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,249

    kinabalu said:

    I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go

    Cutting your toenails?
    If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.

    Up to you.
    That is very kind of you and I can report that I have lost 14 kgs (2.20 stone) in the last 9 weeks and now feel much fitter, am controlling my diabetes, and am near the weight I was last at in my teens, 60 years ago

    It has required a complete change in diet but was no more difficult than stopping smoking 15 years ago
    Well done Big_G. Highly impressive weight figures.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,311
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go

    Cutting your toenails?
    No

    Have been having replacement double glazed units fitted fo 8 that have misted and late pm was the only time the glazers could do it

    Seems a very expensive way of avoiding Boris.... :smile:
    £1,100 to be precise
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,311

    kinabalu said:

    I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go

    Cutting your toenails?
    If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.

    Up to you.
    That is very kind of you and I can report that I have lost 14 kgs (2.20 stone) in the last 9 weeks and now feel much fitter, am controlling my diabetes, and am near the weight I was last at in my teens, 60 years ago

    It has required a complete change in diet but was no more difficult than stopping smoking 15 years ago
    Bloody fire hell that is some serious amount of weight in a very short period of time.
    It was needed and it is permanent
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626

    Pulpstar said:

    I should probably know this seeing as I'm betting on the thing but what was "bussing".

    & Was it a good or a bad thing ?

    It was a very complicated thing, and very controversial at the time.

    Larry Sabato's take on the issue as raised last night is interesting:

    Harris powerfully reproached Biden for his opposition to school busing to achieve racial balance in the 1970s, noting that she had benefitted from busing. It was another time and place, and older observers (including one of us) recall that plenty of Democrats were damaged or defeated because of their support of busing, which was greatly unpopular among whites and also disliked by many blacks, because it limited extracurricular activities and resulted in many students leaving home very early and returning home after dark. But none of that matters now, and Biden is paying a price. Biden didn’t answer these criticisms well, and some of his staff privately said he hadn’t followed the script they’d devised.

    http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2-debates-20-candidates-26-hours/
    This is one of the better articles on Biden's busing history, and the evolution of his position:
    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/04/joe-biden-integration-school-busing-120968

    I'm not entirely unsympathetic - after all, his political career was on the line - but he made a choice (as Jesse Helms' ironic comment emphasises), and the idea that he should not be challenged on this, particularly as he celebrates his civil rights record, is absurd.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    New Statesman has an interesting YouGov "what if" Autumn GE poll:

    Scenario: Boris leading Con with policy "No deal if necessary". All other parties' policies and leaders as at present (Swinson LD leader).

    Result: LD 30, Con 24, BRX 19, Lab 17.

    What a result that would be!

    Indeed it would. Whatever Corbyn might want, surely there is no way Labour allow their policy not to change to avoid that scenario?
    Swinson PM with supply and confidence from whoever wins the immediate Labour leadership contest I think in that scenario.
    What happens when the SNP demand the referendum as their price for joining in the fun...
    Swinson could find herself without a constituency...
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go

    Cutting your toenails?
    No

    Have been having replacement double glazed units fitted fo 8 that have misted and late pm was the only time the glazers could do it

    Seems a very expensive way of avoiding Boris.... :smile:
    £1,100 to be precise
    A bargain, then !
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,140

    kinabalu said:

    I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go

    Cutting your toenails?
    If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.

    Up to you.
    That is very kind of you and I can report that I have lost 14 kgs (2.20 stone) in the last 9 weeks and now feel much fitter, am controlling my diabetes, and am near the weight I was last at in my teens, 60 years ago

    It has required a complete change in diet but was no more difficult than stopping smoking 15 years ago
    Congrats! I was 23.5 stone at the start of April, and am now 5.5 stone lighter by the same method. Only 6 stone to go...
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,311

    kinabalu said:

    I was invited to meet Boris at a meeting on the Welsh borders tonight but am not able to go

    Cutting your toenails?
    If you knew Big_G better you'd know he has faced recent health challenges and an apology would set you in good light.

    Up to you.
    That is very kind of you and I can report that I have lost 14 kgs (2.20 stone) in the last 9 weeks and now feel much fitter, am controlling my diabetes, and am near the weight I was last at in my teens, 60 years ago

    It has required a complete change in diet but was no more difficult than stopping smoking 15 years ago
    Well done Big_G. Highly impressive weight figures.
    Thank you so much. Stopped all bread, cakes, choc biscs, chocs, all fizzy drinks and ate much smaller portions, including soup plus yogurt only teas 3 days a week

    I do like all fruit and veg and it helps greatly
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,462
    Um, and maybe the fact that they KILLED millions? Jeez.
This discussion has been closed.