politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight the fight for the WH2020 Democratic nomination moves t
Options
Comments
-
Yes we could end up at anything from WTO to Boles-Powell-Kinnock CM 2.0. I think the mere act of leaving spikes Farage's guns so we move to a soft Rory Stewartesque landing.noneoftheabove said:
It doesnt define the flavour of brexit, either hard or soft could be chosen at the next stage following the WA. It is ridiculous that people who have spent 30 years telling us we must leave the EU cannot accept a couple of years transition that is less in the EU than we are now.Pulpstar said:May's deal IS the backstop ! The rest is transition to some unknown end state but we can't transist without supplanting the backstop. The backstop is a de facto customs union (And SM for NI), in practice it's a very soft Brexit but has been turned into either a "Tory hard Brexit" or "remaining" by opponents depending on which side of the argument they're on. It's neither - it's out politically but at a low economic cost.
I've managed to talk both remainers and leavers round to it, but I don't have a couple of hours to chat to everyone in the country about its merits
Edit: May's deal is simply the transition, in fact, so by definition it's soft for the next few years at least.0 -
That might be a problem if it was the only one but since they're going to be doing this every month it seems reasonable to just leave it to the luck of the draw; Most of the candidates should end up facing each other at some point - a bigger problem is going to be how to get a word in edgeways...Dadge said:The way the Dem debates have been organised is ridiculous, with most of the main candidates being in the 2nd one. Hopefully they'll learn to use a seeding system next time.
0 -
-
HYUFD said:
Diehard Remainers refuse to respect the vote to Leave, Deal or No DealIanB2 said:Tories seem blind to how relatively modest the real world disruption and damage from a no deal exit would need to be, to tarnish their reputation for a generation.
You can't just lump the No Deal and Deal leavers together. We are not going to Brexit both with and without a deal, it will be one or the other.
What matters is how much support there is for the route we finally opt for. The referendum was run on the back of people supporting a dozen different types of Brexit, sooner or later there will be only 1 form of Brexit and I expect the majority of the country to be oppose to it.0 -
He who pays the piperOllyT said:
True but until recently I hadn't quite realised how much McCluskey is calling the shots these daysDecrepitJohnL said:
With all due respect to Mr Peston, isn't this old news? The dividing lines in the Shadow Cabinet on Brexit have been known for months if not years.HYUFD said:0 -
@Morris_Dancer - you might like this:
http://motogpnews.com/2019/06/25/f1-blamed-for-accidental-buried-alive-upsurge/0 -
0
-
tbf that polling was quite useful, but remember it doesn't show what people want, but what they feel respects the result. If they were asked what they want, the support for Norway would be higher. Still, I do believe that once we've left the EU, people are relatively relaxed about the form of deal we go for. The problem is that we have to leave the EU first, and parliament has refused three times to back the WA. Politicians, commentators, everybody has to understand that discussions about a deal are moot until the WA is signed.Andy_Cooke said:
You do have this curious thing about using the present tense to describe public opinion shown in polls from months ago to years agoHYUFD said:
The preferred outcome is a FTA for GB, Boris' policy.eek said:
Nope 57% will accept some form of Brexit as the conclusion of this mess - the question isn't what you want it was what is the preferred outcome.HYUFD said:
57% would still like to Brexit thenTheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov
It is
43% Revoke and Remain
28% No Deal
16% BINO - Remain in the Customs Union
13% May’s Deal
So it’s 59% would like to revoke or BINO
And preferred outcome isn't the same thing as desire...
50% of voters back a FTA, 35% back a Norway style soft Brexit and 32% back No Deal hard Brexit
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-0 -
The bods covering the race for Radio 5 gave the order of drivers about 20 laps out then said with almost stone cold certainty that would be the order they finished in.tlg86 said:
Right now it's probably the dullest sport on the planet.0 -
Thanks to Champagne Len's triumphant leadership (secured on less than 5% of the membership's vote), Unite is not even the biggest UK trade union anymore.nichomar said:
He who pays the piperOllyT said:
True but until recently I hadn't quite realised how much McCluskey is calling the shots these daysDecrepitJohnL said:
With all due respect to Mr Peston, isn't this old news? The dividing lines in the Shadow Cabinet on Brexit have been known for months if not years.HYUFD said:
0 -
Precisely right. It's the best and only way we get to leave. So if you still believe we will be leaving (as I do) the only question is when will the WA be ratified.Pulpstar said:May's deal IS the backstop ! The rest is transition to some unknown end state but we can't transist without supplanting the backstop. The backstop is a de facto customs union (And SM for NI), in practice it's a very soft Brexit but has been turned into either a "Tory hard Brexit" or "remaining" by opponents depending on which side of the argument they're on. It's neither - it's out politically but at a low economic cost.
I've managed to talk both remainers and leavers round to it, but I don't have a couple of hours to chat to everyone in the country about its merits
I predict in the 1st half of 2020.0 -
WTF I just looked it up and apparently you can buy the Labour Party for a mere half a million Brexit pounds per quarter???nichomar said:
He who pays the piper
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/donations-and-loans-to-political-parties/quarterly-donations-and-loans
That's like 2000 ETH or something? We neoliberal globalists could have a whip-round.1 -
Some of politics might be about scapegoating and casting blame, not all is. Mandela's government for example could easily have found blame to cast around (as subsequent SA govts have done) but instead focused on optimism and the future. It can be done.matt said:
It’s not a Brussels point really, though. All of politics is blaming somebody else and allowing your own supporters to pass unscathed. For the Conservatives, it’s Europe. For the present incarnation of the SWP/Labour party it’s the rich (and equally ambiguous term). In both cases it’s about blame, finding the enemy and excusing your own failings.rottenborough said:
This was bound to be next stage. All the chaos and economic meltdown will be Brussels fault.Scott_P said:TAKE BACK CONTRO....
Oh, wait, never mind.
https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1143790195441098752
Very depressing.
But in a sense just develops the existing myth: that everything that is wrong generally with UK in people's eyes is down to Brussels.0 -
Sorry, thought the context was clear - British politics. One could make a case for 1997-era Blair as an outlier.noneoftheabove said:
Some of politics might be about scapegoating and casting blame, not all is. Mandela's government for example could easily have found blame to cast around (as subsequent SA govts have done) but instead focused on optimism and the future. It can be done.matt said:
It’s not a Brussels point really, though. All of politics is blaming somebody else and allowing your own supporters to pass unscathed. For the Conservatives, it’s Europe. For the present incarnation of the SWP/Labour party it’s the rich (and equally ambiguous term). In both cases it’s about blame, finding the enemy and excusing your own failings.rottenborough said:
This was bound to be next stage. All the chaos and economic meltdown will be Brussels fault.Scott_P said:TAKE BACK CONTRO....
Oh, wait, never mind.
https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1143790195441098752
Very depressing.
But in a sense just develops the existing myth: that everything that is wrong generally with UK in people's eyes is down to Brussels.0 -
edmundintokyo said:
WTF I just looked it up and apparently you can buy the Labour Party for a mere half a million Brexit pounds per quarter???nichomar said:
He who pays the piper
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/donations-and-loans-to-political-parties/quarterly-donations-and-loans
That's like 2000 ETH or something? We neoliberal globalists could have a whip-round.
Anyone know the brexit position of the top labour union funders is?edmundintokyo said:
WTF I just looked it up and apparently you can buy the Labour Party for a mere half a million Brexit pounds per quarter???nichomar said:
He who pays the piper
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/donations-and-loans-to-political-parties/quarterly-donations-and-loans
That's like 2000 ETH or something? We neoliberal globalists could have a whip-round.0 -
To be fair I think there was an overtake or two at the end. The problem is that we are at the end of history. There are no innovations that can be made to the cars that would change the running order. But as long as Hamilton and Ferrari fans keep tuning in it won't bother those making money out of it.Pulpstar said:
The bods covering the race for Radio 5 gave the order of drivers about 20 laps out then said with almost stone cold certainty that would be the order they finished in.tlg86 said:
Right now it's probably the dullest sport on the planet.0 -
In the current British climate Rory would be the exception, the mediator trying to bring people together without blame.matt said:
Sorry, thought the context was clear - British politics. One could make a case for 1997-era Blair as an outlier.noneoftheabove said:
Some of politics might be about scapegoating and casting blame, not all is. Mandela's government for example could easily have found blame to cast around (as subsequent SA govts have done) but instead focused on optimism and the future. It can be done.matt said:
It’s not a Brussels point really, though. All of politics is blaming somebody else and allowing your own supporters to pass unscathed. For the Conservatives, it’s Europe. For the present incarnation of the SWP/Labour party it’s the rich (and equally ambiguous term). In both cases it’s about blame, finding the enemy and excusing your own failings.rottenborough said:
This was bound to be next stage. All the chaos and economic meltdown will be Brussels fault.Scott_P said:TAKE BACK CONTRO....
Oh, wait, never mind.
https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1143790195441098752
Very depressing.
But in a sense just develops the existing myth: that everything that is wrong generally with UK in people's eyes is down to Brussels.0 -
Do you and your family have the ability to return to Australia?Philip_Thompson said:
The backstop is not.another_richard said:
Notice that there isn't an option for Leave with a deal harder than May's.CarlottaVance said:
That is because May's deal IS Hard Brexit.
And it will certainly be a harder Brexit than many of those now supporting No Deal were asking for three years ago.
I wonder how many of those now supporting No Deal have considered the cost/benefit and risks/rewards of that compared to May's deal.
I appreciate that this is a personal question and I would not normally ask it but you are probably the most gung-ho Brexiteer currently on PB and give the impression that no price would be too great to pay to achieve it. I am always left wondering whether, unlike most of us, you have an escape route if you proved to be wrong.0 -
So Johnson is currently lying.HYUFD said:
Boris wants a Canada style FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop in NI which is what most voters want.eek said:
I don't think you are reading that right - it's 33% want No Deal 66% want anything except for No Deal..HYUFD said:
Support for No Deal and May's Deal now at 43% ie almost the same as support for Remain, most of those prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain.CarlottaVance said:
The 13% who back a soft Brexit are key to a majority but they still back Brexit.
While 81% of Remainers back Revoke and Remain 59% of Leavers back No Deal Brexit as the country polarised, with 73% of Leavers backing Leaving with No Deal or May's Deal
If Boris leaves the EU with a deal I don't think he has a problem - the issue is that he's committed to a date that makes No Deal almost inevitable... And that is likely to result in him being a very short term PM..
Boris only backs No Deal as a last resort to avoid revoke
0 -
Support for Remain or No Deal is 80% - a MASSIVE majority of the country. As Remain is more popular than No Deal, we must Remain. Clearly.HYUFD said:
Support for No Deal and May's Deal now at 43% ie almost the same as support for Remain, most of those prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain.CarlottaVance said:
The 13% who back a soft Brexit are key to a majority but they still back Brexit.
While 81% of Remainers back Revoke and Remain 59% of Leavers back No Deal Brexit as the country polarised, with 73% of Leavers backing Leaving with No Deal or May's Deal0 -
This strategy has been clear since May opted for a Blue Brexit. The strategy is a good one since (as shown at the last GE) people care about a lot more things than Brexit, and are willing to coalesce around Labour, even with Corbyn in charge, as a means of achieving those things.kinabalu said:
The strategy is proving very durable, having withstood the Anti-Semitism scandal, the formation of the Independent Group, and the success of the LibDems at the EU elections. Labour has FPTP to thank for some of this durability. If BJ becomes Tory leader, this will concentrate minds on the Left, so that even those who've defected to the LibDems will think twice about actually voting for them in Lab/Con marginals.
Where the strategy may come unstuck is (1) the Farage effect. If Farage stands his party in a pre-Brexit election against BJ's Tories, it's likely to split the Tory vote and Corbyn will be laughing. But if there's any kind of stitch-up between Farage and BJ, Labour are sunk.
(2) If by some miracle BJ avoids having a GE (till 2022), Corbyn's strategy will have been a monumental act of hubristic folly.0 -
Yes - sums up the problem leavers have never managed to solve. What do we actually want from Brexit? It sounds great in theory but when you actually get into the detail there are many downsides. And forming a consensus is almost impossible, especially since May has spent most of the past three years hoping to force her version of Brexit on everyone without no attempt to explain it.OllyT said:HYUFD said:
Diehard Remainers refuse to respect the vote to Leave, Deal or No DealIanB2 said:Tories seem blind to how relatively modest the real world disruption and damage from a no deal exit would need to be, to tarnish their reputation for a generation.
You can't just lump the No Deal and Deal leavers together. We are not going to Brexit both with and without a deal, it will be one or the other.
What matters is how much support there is for the route we finally opt for. The referendum was run on the back of people supporting a dozen different types of Brexit, sooner or later there will be only 1 form of Brexit and I expect the majority of the country to be oppose to it.0 -
Mr. 86, on the contrary, I don't like the idea of being buried alive at all!0
-
Well the Tories can try to pin the blame on the EU - I suspect for a lot of voters it won't stick....rottenborough said:
This was bound to be next stage. All the chaos and economic meltdown will be Brussels fault.Scott_P said:TAKE BACK CONTRO....
Oh, wait, never mind.
https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1143790195441098752
Very depressing.
But in a sense just develops the existing myth: that everything that is wrong generally with UK in people's eyes is down to Brussels.0 -
Indeed - the only Deal on offer is the May Deal. Many No Dealers have said they would rather Remain than accept it.OllyT said:HYUFD said:
Diehard Remainers refuse to respect the vote to Leave, Deal or No DealIanB2 said:Tories seem blind to how relatively modest the real world disruption and damage from a no deal exit would need to be, to tarnish their reputation for a generation.
You can't just lump the No Deal and Deal leavers together. We are not going to Brexit both with and without a deal, it will be one or the other.
What matters is how much support there is for the route we finally opt for. The referendum was run on the back of people supporting a dozen different types of Brexit, sooner or later there will be only 1 form of Brexit and I expect the majority of the country to be oppose to it.
0 -
It would explain a lot.OllyT said:
Do you and your family have the ability to return to Australia?Philip_Thompson said:
The backstop is not.another_richard said:
Notice that there isn't an option for Leave with a deal harder than May's.CarlottaVance said:
That is because May's deal IS Hard Brexit.
And it will certainly be a harder Brexit than many of those now supporting No Deal were asking for three years ago.
I wonder how many of those now supporting No Deal have considered the cost/benefit and risks/rewards of that compared to May's deal.
I appreciate that this is a personal question and I would not normally ask it but you are probably the most gung-ho Brexiteer currently on PB and give the impression that no price would be too great to pay to achieve it. I am always left wondering whether, unlike most of us, you have an escape route if you proved to be wrong.0 -
Not sure you can group remain together either on that basis. Remain on current deal, remain with considerably more integration and then the euro? You certainly can't please all remain voters either, a lot of them can't even decide between revoke or a 2nd ref.anothernick said:
Yes - sums up the problem leavers have never managed to solve. What do we actually want from Brexit? It sounds great in theory but when you actually get into the detail there are many downsides. And forming a consensus is almost impossible, especially since May has spent most of the past three years hoping to force her version of Brexit on everyone without no attempt to explain it.OllyT said:HYUFD said:
Diehard Remainers refuse to respect the vote to Leave, Deal or No DealIanB2 said:Tories seem blind to how relatively modest the real world disruption and damage from a no deal exit would need to be, to tarnish their reputation for a generation.
You can't just lump the No Deal and Deal leavers together. We are not going to Brexit both with and without a deal, it will be one or the other.
What matters is how much support there is for the route we finally opt for. The referendum was run on the back of people supporting a dozen different types of Brexit, sooner or later there will be only 1 form of Brexit and I expect the majority of the country to be oppose to it.0 -
The same thought occured to me. When I hear a particularly stupid Tory who i've have never heard of waxing lyrical about Boris I get this numbing feeling that this is going to be our next chancellor.ThomasNashe said:
Throw Gavin Williamson into the mix, and that's quite a collection of incompetents he's surrounded himself with. Guess they'll all have to be rewarded with jobs - God help us all.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1143595926105272321ThomasNashe said:Telegraph: 'Boris hires Iain Duncan Smith to get campaign back on track'. Short of de-railing Grayling, I can't think of anyone less likely to get it 'back on track'.
0 -
Especially with Farage blaming it on British government incompetence...eek said:
Well the Tories can try to pin the blame on the EU - I suspect for a lot of voters it won't stick....0 -
I'm sure there will be a strong consensus on finger wagging and tutting under their breath.HYUFD said:0 -
Only missing the obligatory Radiohead reference at the end.tlg86 said:0 -
I doubt many Remainers see those distinctions as meaningful. You have to listen to what people say, not what you think they ought to say. Applies to both sides of course.Brom said:
Not sure you can group remain together either on that basis. Remain on current deal, remain with considerably more integration and then the euro? You certainly can't please all remain voters either, a lot of them can't even decide between revoke or a 2nd ref.anothernick said:
Yes - sums up the problem leavers have never managed to solve. What do we actually want from Brexit? It sounds great in theory but when you actually get into the detail there are many downsides. And forming a consensus is almost impossible, especially since May has spent most of the past three years hoping to force her version of Brexit on everyone without no attempt to explain it.OllyT said:HYUFD said:
Diehard Remainers refuse to respect the vote to Leave, Deal or No DealIanB2 said:Tories seem blind to how relatively modest the real world disruption and damage from a no deal exit would need to be, to tarnish their reputation for a generation.
You can't just lump the No Deal and Deal leavers together. We are not going to Brexit both with and without a deal, it will be one or the other.
What matters is how much support there is for the route we finally opt for. The referendum was run on the back of people supporting a dozen different types of Brexit, sooner or later there will be only 1 form of Brexit and I expect the majority of the country to be oppose to it.
Revoke or second ref is an issue of process, not outcome.0 -
Remain favour the status quo, the only mild disagreement is on how to bring it about (referendum or revoke). But this difference is nowhere near as bitter as the split between leavers who favour the deal and those who see the deal as treachery and vassalage.Brom said:
Not sure you can group remain together either on that basis. Remain on current deal, remain with considerably more integration and then the euro? You certainly can't please all remain voters either, a lot of them can't even decide between revoke or a 2nd ref.anothernick said:
Yes - sums up the problem leavers have never managed to solve. What do we actually want from Brexit? It sounds great in theory but when you actually get into the detail there are many downsides. And forming a consensus is almost impossible, especially since May has spent most of the past three years hoping to force her version of Brexit on everyone without no attempt to explain it.OllyT said:HYUFD said:
Diehard Remainers refuse to respect the vote to Leave, Deal or No DealIanB2 said:Tories seem blind to how relatively modest the real world disruption and damage from a no deal exit would need to be, to tarnish their reputation for a generation.
You can't just lump the No Deal and Deal leavers together. We are not going to Brexit both with and without a deal, it will be one or the other.
What matters is how much support there is for the route we finally opt for. The referendum was run on the back of people supporting a dozen different types of Brexit, sooner or later there will be only 1 form of Brexit and I expect the majority of the country to be oppose to it.0 -
My preference would be for a referendum but in the spirit of compromise I would be prepared to settle for my second choice of revocationFF43 said:
I doubt many Remainers see those distinctions as meaningful. You have to listen to what people say, not what you think they ought to say. Applies to both sides of course.Brom said:
Not sure you can group remain together either on that basis. Remain on current deal, remain with considerably more integration and then the euro? You certainly can't please all remain voters either, a lot of them can't even decide between revoke or a 2nd ref.anothernick said:
Yes - sums up the problem leavers have never managed to solve. What do we actually want from Brexit? It sounds great in theory but when you actually get into the detail there are many downsides. And forming a consensus is almost impossible, especially since May has spent most of the past three years hoping to force her version of Brexit on everyone without no attempt to explain it.OllyT said:HYUFD said:
Diehard Remainers refuse to respect the vote to Leave, Deal or No DealIanB2 said:Tories seem blind to how relatively modest the real world disruption and damage from a no deal exit would need to be, to tarnish their reputation for a generation.
You can't just lump the No Deal and Deal leavers together. We are not going to Brexit both with and without a deal, it will be one or the other.
What matters is how much support there is for the route we finally opt for. The referendum was run on the back of people supporting a dozen different types of Brexit, sooner or later there will be only 1 form of Brexit and I expect the majority of the country to be oppose to it.
Revoke or second ref is an issue of process, not outcome.
0 -
Ah well, Labour will be happy to see more proof that there's really only a fag paper's thickness between the wet and dry Tories.williamglenn said:
I really is bizarre that there are people who say that our leaving the EU is evidence that we aren't allowed to leave.0 -
If the Tories and Nigel run on a joint ticket Labour just need to offer that referendum.Dadge said:
This strategy has been clear since May opted for a Blue Brexit. The strategy is a good one since (as shown at the last GE) people care about a lot more things than Brexit, and are willing to coalesce around Labour, even with Corbyn in charge, as a means of achieving those things.kinabalu said:
The strategy is proving very durable, having withstood the Anti-Semitism scandal, the formation of the Independent Group, and the success of the LibDems at the EU elections. Labour has FPTP to thank for some of this durability. If BJ becomes Tory leader, this will concentrate minds on the Left, so that even those who've defected to the LibDems will think twice about actually voting for them in Lab/Con marginals.
Where the strategy may come unstuck is (1) the Farage effect. If Farage stands his party in a pre-Brexit election against BJ's Tories, it's likely to split the Tory vote and Corbyn will be laughing. But if there's any kind of stitch-up between Farage and BJ, Labour are sunk.
(2) If by some miracle BJ avoids having a GE (till 2022), Corbyn's strategy will have been a monumental act of hubristic folly.
For leavers it's they ability to say we told you so leave
For remainers it's the escape route back to sanity
In both cases it gives just enough doubt to not scare people away without committing to anything.0 -
I do like Tom Watson, but it's pretty breathtaking the way he's undermining his own party's strategy and getting away with it. Operating as two parties under one roof is a peculiar (but effective?) way of retaining members.Freggles said:
I'm sure there will be a strong consensus on finger wagging and tutting under their breath.HYUFD said:0 -
For the first time I am beginning to think that, unless we have a snap poll this year, Jeremy Corbyn may not be Labour leader at the time of the next general election. If McDonnell and Abbott are prepared to speak in the way they did yesterday, knowing their words would get out, that is immensely significant.0
-
0
-
Labour’s main problem is that Corbyn is perceived by millions of Remain voters as a Leave supporter and millions of Leave voters as a Remainer. The triangulation no longer works because voters do not trust the Labour leader. He is the central issue.Dadge said:
This strategy has been clear since May opted for a Blue Brexit. The strategy is a good one since (as shown at the last GE) people care about a lot more things than Brexit, and are willing to coalesce around Labour, even with Corbyn in charge, as a means of achieving those things.kinabalu said:
The strategy is proving very durable, having withstood the Anti-Semitism scandal, the formation of the Independent Group, and the success of the LibDems at the EU elections. Labour has FPTP to thank for some of this durability. If BJ becomes Tory leader, this will concentrate minds on the Left, so that even those who've defected to the LibDems will think twice about actually voting for them in Lab/Con marginals.
Where the strategy may come unstuck is (1) the Farage effect. If Farage stands his party in a pre-Brexit election against BJ's Tories, it's likely to split the Tory vote and Corbyn will be laughing. But if there's any kind of stitch-up between Farage and BJ, Labour are sunk.
(2) If by some miracle BJ avoids having a GE (till 2022), Corbyn's strategy will have been a monumental act of hubristic folly.
0 -
Wouldn’t a joint con/tbp Ltd ticket be the end for any remaining decent Tory’s? Farage would be very difficult to swallow and I think be a vote loser in the country.eek said:
If the Tories and Nigel run on a joint ticket Labour just need to offer that referendum.Dadge said:
This strategy has been clear since May opted for a Blue Brexit. The strategy is a good one since (as shown at the last GE) people care about a lot more things than Brexit, and are willing to coalesce around Labour, even with Corbyn in charge, as a means of achieving those things.kinabalu said:
The strategy is proving very durable, having withstood the Anti-Semitism scandal, the formation of the Independent Group, and the success of the LibDems at the EU elections. Labour has FPTP to thank for some of this durability. If BJ becomes Tory leader, this will concentrate minds on the Left, so that even those who've defected to the LibDems will think twice about actually voting for them in Lab/Con marginals.
Where the strategy may come unstuck is (1) the Farage effect. If Farage stands his party in a pre-Brexit election against BJ's Tories, it's likely to split the Tory vote and Corbyn will be laughing. But if there's any kind of stitch-up between Farage and BJ, Labour are sunk.
(2) If by some miracle BJ avoids having a GE (till 2022), Corbyn's strategy will have been a monumental act of hubristic folly.
For leavers it's they ability to say we told you so leave
For remainers it's the escape route back to sanity
In both cases it gives just enough doubt to not scare people away without committing to anything.0 -
-
I'd back the McDonnell faction in any such showdown.HYUFD said:
Whatever one thinks of McD he is one smart cookie – one of the most underrated politicians out there. Tough, ruthless and very able.
0 -
Interesting. What is Swinson's position on this?Scott_P said:0 -
It is a big black mark on an otherwise reasonable record. Utterly stupid. Still, having it remembered may help him with some of the numbskulls who think it is a good thing to publicly insult our allieswilliamglenn said:0 -
-
What was the date of that poll, and might anything have changed since, do you think ?HYUFD said:
The preferred outcome is a FTA for GB, Boris' policy.eek said:
Nope 57% will accept some form of Brexit as the conclusion of this mess - the question isn't what you want it was what is the preferred outcome.HYUFD said:
57% would still like to Brexit thenTheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov
It is
43% Revoke and Remain
28% No Deal
16% BINO - Remain in the Customs Union
13% May’s Deal
So it’s 59% would like to revoke or BINO
And preferred outcome isn't the same thing as desire...
50% of voters back a FTA, 35% back a Norway style soft Brexit and 32% back No Deal hard Brexit
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-
Next you'll be arguing that adds up to 117% of voters backing Leave...
This is what the German ambassador has to say about the ease of doing deals post crash out:
Negotiating a free trade agreement after a “no-deal” Brexit would be enormously difficult. The UK’s obligations under the withdrawal agreement would be over, trust would be destroyed. We would not be able to return to the agenda immediately ...
Short-term considerations must not prevail. We have to preserve the strategic view of Europe in the world: where will Europe stand in 10, 15, 20 years? Where do we want Europe to stand? Will the EU still play a role on the global map in a world dominated by the US and China: politically, economically, technologically, militarily?
If we Europeans want to continue to sit at the table of the global powers of design in the future, we must join forces - also and especially in the case of Brexit. It is in the pan-European interest to keep Britain as the fifth largest economy in the world and - with France - Europe’s leading military power with veto power in the Security Council in joint orbit. This requires a high level of vision from all.
The United Kingdom legally becomes a so-called “third country” as of the date of withdrawal. But we need more than a conventional third state relationship. We need a partnership of our own kind that is as close as possible, hence a new “special relationship” between the EU and the UK....
0 -
Stop padding your sentences with unnecessary adverbs.SouthamObserver said:
So Johnson is currently lying.HYUFD said:
Boris wants a Canada style FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop in NI which is what most voters want.eek said:
I don't think you are reading that right - it's 33% want No Deal 66% want anything except for No Deal..HYUFD said:
Support for No Deal and May's Deal now at 43% ie almost the same as support for Remain, most of those prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain.CarlottaVance said:
The 13% who back a soft Brexit are key to a majority but they still back Brexit.
While 81% of Remainers back Revoke and Remain 59% of Leavers back No Deal Brexit as the country polarised, with 73% of Leavers backing Leaving with No Deal or May's Deal
If Boris leaves the EU with a deal I don't think he has a problem - the issue is that he's committed to a date that makes No Deal almost inevitable... And that is likely to result in him being a very short term PM..
Boris only backs No Deal as a last resort to avoid revoke0 -
MSNBC reporting that Mike Pompeo is considering running for the Senate in 2020 as a stepping stone to a 2024 presidential bid.0
-
Brexit or no Brexit the only thing that would create the chain reaction necessary to bring sanity back to our politics would be for Corbyn to fall under the proverbial bus. He can't win because his appeal is too limited but fear of him means the Tories are panicked into accepting the poisonous Johnson. We are stuck either side of a U-bend which is so clogged up no normal solvents will clear it.
Come on Thornberry. Time to get your hands dirty0 -
Yeah - crashing out (for all the spin of a "clean Brexit") means that Brexit and redoing the agreements will dominate the political and economic discourse for a generation. And that's optimistic.Nigelb said:
What was the date of that poll, and might anything have changed since, do you think ?HYUFD said:
The preferred outcome is a FTA for GB, Boris' policy.eek said:
Nope 57% will accept some form of Brexit as the conclusion of this mess - the question isn't what you want it was what is the preferred outcome.HYUFD said:
57% would still like to Brexit thenTheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov
It is
43% Revoke and Remain
28% No Deal
16% BINO - Remain in the Customs Union
13% May’s Deal
So it’s 59% would like to revoke or BINO
And preferred outcome isn't the same thing as desire...
50% of voters back a FTA, 35% back a Norway style soft Brexit and 32% back No Deal hard Brexit
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-
Next you'll be arguing that adds up to 117% of voters backing Leave...
This is what the German ambassador has to say about the ease of doing deals post crash out:
Negotiating a free trade agreement after a “no-deal” Brexit would be enormously difficult. The UK’s obligations under the withdrawal agreement would be over, trust would be destroyed. We would not be able to return to the agenda immediately ...
Short-term considerations must not prevail. We have to preserve the strategic view of Europe in the world: where will Europe stand in 10, 15, 20 years? Where do we want Europe to stand? Will the EU still play a role on the global map in a world dominated by the US and China: politically, economically, technologically, militarily?
If we Europeans want to continue to sit at the table of the global powers of design in the future, we must join forces - also and especially in the case of Brexit. It is in the pan-European interest to keep Britain as the fifth largest economy in the world and - with France - Europe’s leading military power with veto power in the Security Council in joint orbit. This requires a high level of vision from all.
The United Kingdom legally becomes a so-called “third country” as of the date of withdrawal. But we need more than a conventional third state relationship. We need a partnership of our own kind that is as close as possible, hence a new “special relationship” between the EU and the UK....0 -
-
Thornberry is probably the worst of all outcomes - narrow minded, selfrighteous and vindictive,Roger said:Brexit or no Brexit the only thing that would create the chain reaction necessary to bring sanity back to our politics would be for Corbyn to fall under the proverbial bus. He can't win because his appeal is too limited but fear of him means the Tories are panicked into accepting the poisonous Johnson. We are stuck either side of a U-bend which is so clogged up no normal solvents will clear it.
Come on Thornberry. Time to get your hands dirty1 -
It's about 50/50 according to 538 (they mentioned it on their most recent podcast). Apparently the magic number is to poll consistently above 31% at this time in the cycle; Biden is doing this inconsistently. The current evidence points to Biden being more likely than not to lose the nom, whilst still being the candidate with the highest chance of winning.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Historically, do favourites tend to win Democrat nominations?0 -
This would appear to be true, but it isn't. He was supposed to be the issue in 2017, with most of the PLP railing against him, but it turned out that the opposite was the case.SouthamObserver said:
Labour’s main problem is that Corbyn is perceived by millions of Remain voters as a Leave supporter and millions of Leave voters as a Remainer. The triangulation no longer works because voters do not trust the Labour leader. He is the central issue.Dadge said:
This strategy has been clear since May opted for a Blue Brexit. The strategy is a good one since (as shown at the last GE) people care about a lot more things than Brexit, and are willing to coalesce around Labour, even with Corbyn in charge, as a means of achieving those things.kinabalu said:
The strategy is proving very durable, having withstood the Anti-Semitism scandal, the formation of the Independent Group, and the success of the LibDems at the EU elections. Labour has FPTP to thank for some of this durability. If BJ becomes Tory leader, this will concentrate minds on the Left, so that even those who've defected to the LibDems will think twice about actually voting for them in Lab/Con marginals.
Where the strategy may come unstuck is (1) the Farage effect. If Farage stands his party in a pre-Brexit election against BJ's Tories, it's likely to split the Tory vote and Corbyn will be laughing. But if there's any kind of stitch-up between Farage and BJ, Labour are sunk.
(2) If by some miracle BJ avoids having a GE (till 2022), Corbyn's strategy will have been a monumental act of hubristic folly.
Corbyn is not the issue, Brexit is the issue, ie. how much salience will it have in a pre-Brexit GE? In 2017 the answer was "not much", and Corbyn is relying on the fact that the same will be true again. But although FPTP is a great ally to the Labour Party, since there are so many seats where it's hard to argue that the LibDems or Greens have any chance (I predict that we'll start to see a LOT of LibDem-style barcharts in Labour leaflets) the crystallisation of UK voters into Leavers and Remainers presents the small but dangerous possibility that Labour and Tories will change from being the squeezers to being the squeezed.0 -
Thanks, Mr. Grss.
Mr. Observer, indeed.0 -
I agree. But our politics aren't ready for nice guys yet. The zeitgeist might change and in a year or two we'll have Milliband D V Greening V Swinson and we'll all live happily ever after.Alanbrooke said:
Thornberry is probably the worst of all outcomes - narrow minded, selfrighteous and vindictive,Roger said:Brexit or no Brexit the only thing that would create the chain reaction necessary to bring sanity back to our politics would be for Corbyn to fall under the proverbial bus. He can't win because his appeal is too limited but fear of him means the Tories are panicked into accepting the poisonous Johnson. We are stuck either side of a U-bend which is so clogged up no normal solvents will clear it.
Come on Thornberry. Time to get your hands dirty0 -
lolRoger said:
I agree. But our politics aren't ready for nice guys yet. The zeitgeist might change and in a year or two we'll have Milliband D V Greening V Swinson and we'll all live happily ever after.Alanbrooke said:
Thornberry is probably the worst of all outcomes - narrow minded, selfrighteous and vindictive,Roger said:Brexit or no Brexit the only thing that would create the chain reaction necessary to bring sanity back to our politics would be for Corbyn to fall under the proverbial bus. He can't win because his appeal is too limited but fear of him means the Tories are panicked into accepting the poisonous Johnson. We are stuck either side of a U-bend which is so clogged up no normal solvents will clear it.
Come on Thornberry. Time to get your hands dirty
and we can all spend time in the Night Garden0 -
Buses feature strongly in politics nowadays.Roger said:Brexit or no Brexit the only thing that would create the chain reaction necessary to bring sanity back to our politics would be for Corbyn to fall under the proverbial bus. He can't win because his appeal is too limited but fear of him means the Tories are panicked into accepting the poisonous Johnson. We are stuck either side of a U-bend which is so clogged up no normal solvents will clear it.
Come on Thornberry. Time to get your hands dirty0 -
I bet Carney can't get away from this benighted country where politicians lie all day along about trade issues.0
-
I attended a McDonnell event in Shipley a few months back. He came across very well. I don't think I could disagree with anything he said. Mind, he focussed mainly on domestic issues and didn't mention Israel/Palestine.SouthamObserver said:
0 -
Mr. Rentool, Stalin helped Kaganovic improve his literacy. Hitler was nice to his secretaries. Nero let people satirise him.
Even shit has trace amounts of gold.
https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/10848548697422356480 -
Yeah right... Will collapse into acrimony in the first five minutesScott_P said:
VONC leads to a general election. Nothing else is viable, serious or sensible.0 -
I don't know, he's earned a pretty penny during his time here:rottenborough said:I bet Carney can't get away from this benighted country where politicians lie all day along about trade issues.
https://wageindicator.co.uk/pay/vip-celebrity-salary/bankers-salary0 -
I'll take no lessons from someone who votes for Andrea JenkynsMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Rentool, Stalin helped Kaganovic improve his literacy. Hitler was nice to his secretaries. Nero let people satirise him.
Even shit has trace amounts of gold.
https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/10848548697422356480 -
So what?tlg86 said:
I don't know, he's earned a pretty penny during his time here:rottenborough said:I bet Carney can't get away from this benighted country where politicians lie all day along about trade issues.
https://wageindicator.co.uk/pay/vip-celebrity-salary/bankers-salary0 -
A rounding error vs a GS salary or the one he will have for his next job.tlg86 said:
I don't know, he's earned a pretty penny during his time here:rottenborough said:I bet Carney can't get away from this benighted country where politicians lie all day along about trade issues.
https://wageindicator.co.uk/pay/vip-celebrity-salary/bankers-salary0 -
Yes but if there are normally far fewer candidates, that might be misleading. Both figures might be misleading, come to think of it. The fewer candidates there are, the easier it is to poll above 30 per cent (or any other number). If there are only two serious candidates, then a 50/50 probability tells us nothing.148grss said:
It's about 50/50 according to 538 (they mentioned it on their most recent podcast). Apparently the magic number is to poll consistently above 31% at this time in the cycle; Biden is doing this inconsistently. The current evidence points to Biden being more likely than not to lose the nom, whilst still being the candidate with the highest chance of winning.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Historically, do favourites tend to win Democrat nominations?0 -
Mr. Rentool, you're going to pretend McDonnell's a pleasant fellow despite having evidence to the contrary right in front of you, and claim as pretext for that wilful ignorance the fact that I voted for someone you dislike, as if that makes the words that McDonnell himself said not count?
That's a shade depressing.0 -
We are not worthy.TOPPING said:
A rounding error vs a GS salary or the one he will have for his next job.tlg86 said:
I don't know, he's earned a pretty penny during his time here:rottenborough said:I bet Carney can't get away from this benighted country where politicians lie all day along about trade issues.
https://wageindicator.co.uk/pay/vip-celebrity-salary/bankers-salary0 -
No the point is he is worthy.tlg86 said:
We are not worthy.TOPPING said:
A rounding error vs a GS salary or the one he will have for his next job.tlg86 said:
I don't know, he's earned a pretty penny during his time here:rottenborough said:I bet Carney can't get away from this benighted country where politicians lie all day along about trade issues.
https://wageindicator.co.uk/pay/vip-celebrity-salary/bankers-salary0 -
He's ~9-4 though, so the question is does he lose from this position more than 2/3rds of a time. I'd say no - hence I'd disagree with Mike's lay assesment.148grss said:
It's about 50/50 according to 538 (they mentioned it on their most recent podcast). Apparently the magic number is to poll consistently above 31% at this time in the cycle; Biden is doing this inconsistently. The current evidence points to Biden being more likely than not to lose the nom, whilst still being the candidate with the highest chance of winning.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Historically, do favourites tend to win Democrat nominations?0 -
Guptill out cheaply, horror scenario looming for England...0
-
They’ll all be in the same party by then.Roger said:
I agree. But our politics aren't ready for nice guys yet. The zeitgeist might change and in a year or two we'll have Milliband D V Greening V Swinson and we'll all live happily ever after.Alanbrooke said:
Thornberry is probably the worst of all outcomes - narrow minded, selfrighteous and vindictive,Roger said:Brexit or no Brexit the only thing that would create the chain reaction necessary to bring sanity back to our politics would be for Corbyn to fall under the proverbial bus. He can't win because his appeal is too limited but fear of him means the Tories are panicked into accepting the poisonous Johnson. We are stuck either side of a U-bend which is so clogged up no normal solvents will clear it.
Come on Thornberry. Time to get your hands dirty1 -
No.OllyT said:
Do you and your family have the ability to return to Australia?Philip_Thompson said:
The backstop is not.another_richard said:
Notice that there isn't an option for Leave with a deal harder than May's.CarlottaVance said:
That is because May's deal IS Hard Brexit.
And it will certainly be a harder Brexit than many of those now supporting No Deal were asking for three years ago.
I wonder how many of those now supporting No Deal have considered the cost/benefit and risks/rewards of that compared to May's deal.
I appreciate that this is a personal question and I would not normally ask it but you are probably the most gung-ho Brexiteer currently on PB and give the impression that no price would be too great to pay to achieve it. I am always left wondering whether, unlike most of us, you have an escape route if you proved to be wrong.
We were there on a temporary visa which has long-since expired. To emigrate would require starting from scratch. Plus I was there because of my dad's work not my own.
I am not a gung-ho Brexiteer in my eyes, I would be prepared to Remain which most other Brexiteers aren't. I am a gung-ho democrat.
My issue, which most others don't seem to care about, is that to me the backstop is a violation of fundamental human rights. I would no more be prepared to suspend democracy due to the backstop than I would to terminate democracy and live under a Chinese One Party state. Democracy is unquestionable for me, all other considerations come afterwards.0 -
Ed Davey floating possibility of Gov of National Unity - maybe under Cooper or Benn.IanB2 said:
They’ll all be in the same party by then.Roger said:
I agree. But our politics aren't ready for nice guys yet. The zeitgeist might change and in a year or two we'll have Milliband D V Greening V Swinson and we'll all live happily ever after.Alanbrooke said:
Thornberry is probably the worst of all outcomes - narrow minded, selfrighteous and vindictive,Roger said:Brexit or no Brexit the only thing that would create the chain reaction necessary to bring sanity back to our politics would be for Corbyn to fall under the proverbial bus. He can't win because his appeal is too limited but fear of him means the Tories are panicked into accepting the poisonous Johnson. We are stuck either side of a U-bend which is so clogged up no normal solvents will clear it.
Come on Thornberry. Time to get your hands dirty0 -
Yang's price is wrong, he doesn't have a 5-6% chance now.0
-
That's true about most things in this debate. Doesn't change the facts we need to deal with.another_richard said:
How many people could tell you what the backstop is ?Philip_Thompson said:
The backstop is not.another_richard said:
Notice that there isn't an option for Leave with a deal harder than May's.CarlottaVance said:
That is because May's deal IS Hard Brexit.
And it will certainly be a harder Brexit than many of those now supporting No Deal were asking for three years ago.
I wonder how many of those now supporting No Deal have considered the cost/benefit and risks/rewards of that compared to May's deal.
Its meaningless to the average person's life.0 -
Do you think a Norway-style Brexit would represent the same kind of violation on a UK-wide basis?Philip_Thompson said:
No.OllyT said:
Do you and your family have the ability to return to Australia?Philip_Thompson said:
The backstop is not.another_richard said:
Notice that there isn't an option for Leave with a deal harder than May's.CarlottaVance said:
That is because May's deal IS Hard Brexit.
And it will certainly be a harder Brexit than many of those now supporting No Deal were asking for three years ago.
I wonder how many of those now supporting No Deal have considered the cost/benefit and risks/rewards of that compared to May's deal.
I appreciate that this is a personal question and I would not normally ask it but you are probably the most gung-ho Brexiteer currently on PB and give the impression that no price would be too great to pay to achieve it. I am always left wondering whether, unlike most of us, you have an escape route if you proved to be wrong.
We were there on a temporary visa which has long-since expired. To emigrate would require starting from scratch. Plus I was there because of my dad's work not my own.
I am not a gung-ho Brexiteer in my eyes, I would be prepared to Remain which most other Brexiteers aren't. I am a gung-ho democrat.
My issue, which most others don't seem to care about, is that to me the backstop is a violation of fundamental human rights. I would no more be prepared to suspend democracy due to the backstop than I would to terminate democracy and live under a Chinese One Party state. Democracy is unquestionable for me, all other considerations come afterwards.0 -
You must have me mistaken with someone else, I am not an Australian.DougSeal said:
The mandate of the MPs in the current Parliament postdates the referendum. Few, if any, MPs stood on a platform of no-deal in 2017. You can’t cherrypick your mandates. Then again, as an Australian, this shitstorm doesn’t effect you anyway.Philip_Thompson said:
Such was the claim before the referendum. That claim was rejected.nichomar said:
Leaving the EU is not good for the best interests of their constituents.Philip_Thompson said:
MPs who are saying that leaving without a deal is apocalyptic but then voted against the deal haven't done that. And that is hundreds of MPs.nichomar said:
MPs should act in a way that represents the best interests of their constituents, the referendum does not remove that requirement on how to act. They should stick to their conscience and do what Erskine May tells them is their duty, even if it means losing their seat.Philip_Thompson said:
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.Nigel_Foremain said:
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff.HYUFD said:
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and RemainGallowgate said:Here’s a poll for @HYUFD to ignore.
https://twitter.com/bethrigby/status/1143758593918996480?s=21
There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
About 550-600 MPs were elected on a platform of leaving the EU. The vast majority of those say leaving the EU without a deal is not acceptable. If you draw a Venn Diagram of Leaving the EU and avoiding no deal the intersection is voting for the deal - but hundreds of MPs who claim they oppose no deal voted against it0 -
Democracy did not end on 24 June 2016. And one narrow and controversial referendum result should not be the last word in democratic decision making.Philip_Thompson said:
No.OllyT said:
Do you and your family have the ability to return to Australia?Philip_Thompson said:
The backstop is not.another_richard said:
Notice that there isn't an option for Leave with a deal harder than May's.CarlottaVance said:
That is because May's deal IS Hard Brexit.
And it will certainly be a harder Brexit than many of those now supporting No Deal were asking for three years ago.
I wonder how many of those now supporting No Deal have considered the cost/benefit and risks/rewards of that compared to May's deal.
I appreciate that this is a personal question and I would not normally ask it but you are probably the most gung-ho Brexiteer currently on PB and give the impression that no price would be too great to pay to achieve it. I am always left wondering whether, unlike most of us, you have an escape route if you proved to be wrong.
We were there on a temporary visa which has long-since expired. To emigrate would require starting from scratch. Plus I was there because of my dad's work not my own.
I am not a gung-ho Brexiteer in my eyes, I would be prepared to Remain which most other Brexiteers aren't. I am a gung-ho democrat.
My issue, which most others don't seem to care about, is that to me the backstop is a violation of fundamental human rights. I would no more be prepared to suspend democracy due to the backstop than I would to terminate democracy and live under a Chinese One Party state. Democracy is unquestionable for me, all other considerations come afterwards.
Have you studied the history of Germany in the 1930s? What does that teach you about referendums?0 -
I was not here for the Troubles?DougSeal said:
The backstop is there because we are in control of part of Ireland and the Irish Government, based on nearly a millennium of experience and millions of deaths, don’t trust our government to preserve the status quo that allowed them to persuade their people to ratify a peace treaty. Those chickens are coming home to roost.Philip_Thompson said:
The backstop is not.another_richard said:
Notice that there isn't an option for Leave with a deal harder than May's.CarlottaVance said:
That is because May's deal IS Hard Brexit.
And it will certainly be a harder Brexit than many of those now supporting No Deal were asking for three years ago.
I wonder how many of those now supporting No Deal have considered the cost/benefit and risks/rewards of that compared to May's deal.
You were not here for the troubles. You were the other side of the world. You can’t blithly moan about an administrative arrangement like the backstop when lives are at stake. You have not experienced it.
Your protestations that the backstop is some sort of imperial oppression by the EU just shows how privileged you are never to have suffered the real thing. The world isn’t split into oppressors and oppressed. The backstop is there because we are not trusted, rightly, by the Irish Government to keep our word. God knows the Irish people have enough history of that happening.
The backstop is a minor inconvenience to pay for the fact we created a mess in Ireland we never sorted out. We, in that conflict, were not the good guys. Germany suffered reparations and occupation as a result of their not being the good guys in those conflicts. We should suck this one up.
I missed some of it, but I'm from Warrington. I was at the time the same age as one of the kids murdered by the IRA when my town was bombed.
We were not the bad guys. I couldn't care less if the Irish Government don't trust us to keep our word, that is not justification for stripping NI Unionists or others of their fundamental human right to elect the people who set their laws.0 -
You do not think the people of Northern Ireland should have the right to decide whether they want the backstop or not because a minority might not want it. You also believe that the right to vote in a democracy is so inalienable that is perfectly legitimate to deny it to certain lawful, taxpaying residents of the UK. Your attachment to democracy is not necessarily watertight.Philip_Thompson said:
No.OllyT said:
Do you and your family have the ability to return to Australia?Philip_Thompson said:
The backstop is not.another_richard said:
Notice that there isn't an option for Leave with a deal harder than May's.CarlottaVance said:
That is because May's deal IS Hard Brexit.
And it will certainly be a harder Brexit than many of those now supporting No Deal were asking for three years ago.
I wonder how many of those now supporting No Deal have considered the cost/benefit and risks/rewards of that compared to May's deal.
I appreciate that this is a personal question and I would not normally ask it but you are probably the most gung-ho Brexiteer currently on PB and give the impression that no price would be too great to pay to achieve it. I am always left wondering whether, unlike most of us, you have an escape route if you proved to be wrong.
We were there on a temporary visa which has long-since expired. To emigrate would require starting from scratch. Plus I was there because of my dad's work not my own.
I am not a gung-ho Brexiteer in my eyes, I would be prepared to Remain which most other Brexiteers aren't. I am a gung-ho democrat.
My issue, which most others don't seem to care about, is that to me the backstop is a violation of fundamental human rights. I would no more be prepared to suspend democracy due to the backstop than I would to terminate democracy and live under a Chinese One Party state. Democracy is unquestionable for me, all other considerations come afterwards.
0 -
I think you've misunderstood me. I specifically just said I'm prepared to see Brexit reversed or cancelled [democratically] which most others aren't.anothernick said:
Democracy did not end on 24 June 2016. And one narrow and controversial referendum result should not be the last word in democratic decision making.Philip_Thompson said:
No.OllyT said:
Do you and your family have the ability to return to Australia?Philip_Thompson said:
The backstop is not.another_richard said:
Notice that there isn't an option for Leave with a deal harder than May's.CarlottaVance said:
That is because May's deal IS Hard Brexit.
And it will certainly be a harder Brexit than many of those now supporting No Deal were asking for three years ago.
I wonder how many of those now supporting No Deal have considered the cost/benefit and risks/rewards of that compared to May's deal.
I appreciate that this is a personal question and I would not normally ask it but you are probably the most gung-ho Brexiteer currently on PB and give the impression that no price would be too great to pay to achieve it. I am always left wondering whether, unlike most of us, you have an escape route if you proved to be wrong.
We were there on a temporary visa which has long-since expired. To emigrate would require starting from scratch. Plus I was there because of my dad's work not my own.
I am not a gung-ho Brexiteer in my eyes, I would be prepared to Remain which most other Brexiteers aren't. I am a gung-ho democrat.
My issue, which most others don't seem to care about, is that to me the backstop is a violation of fundamental human rights. I would no more be prepared to suspend democracy due to the backstop than I would to terminate democracy and live under a Chinese One Party state. Democracy is unquestionable for me, all other considerations come afterwards.
Have you studied the history of Germany in the 1930s? What does that teach you about referendums?
What I'm not prepared to do is have the backstop which strips our citizens of their right to elect the people who set their laws and to which they can not unilaterally escape.0 -
I do not believe in Tyranny of the Majority to strip individuals of their inalienable rights.SouthamObserver said:
You do not think the people of Northern Ireland should have the right to decide whether they want the backstop or not because a minority might not want it. You also believe that the right to vote in a democracy is so inalienable that is perfectly legitimate to deny it to certain lawful, taxpaying residents of the UK. Your attachment to democracy is not necessarily watertight.Philip_Thompson said:
No.OllyT said:
Do you and your family have the ability to return to Australia?Philip_Thompson said:
The backstop is not.another_richard said:
Notice that there isn't an option for Leave with a deal harder than May's.CarlottaVance said:
That is because May's deal IS Hard Brexit.
And it will certainly be a harder Brexit than many of those now supporting No Deal were asking for three years ago.
I wonder how many of those now supporting No Deal have considered the cost/benefit and risks/rewards of that compared to May's deal.
I appreciate that this is a personal question and I would not normally ask it but you are probably the most gung-ho Brexiteer currently on PB and give the impression that no price would be too great to pay to achieve it. I am always left wondering whether, unlike most of us, you have an escape route if you proved to be wrong.
We were there on a temporary visa which has long-since expired. To emigrate would require starting from scratch. Plus I was there because of my dad's work not my own.
I am not a gung-ho Brexiteer in my eyes, I would be prepared to Remain which most other Brexiteers aren't. I am a gung-ho democrat.
My issue, which most others don't seem to care about, is that to me the backstop is a violation of fundamental human rights. I would no more be prepared to suspend democracy due to the backstop than I would to terminate democracy and live under a Chinese One Party state. Democracy is unquestionable for me, all other considerations come afterwards.
All lawful, taxpaying citizens of the UK should get to vote. No ifs, no buts.0 -
I find the interrogation of Philip Thompson and his right to live in Australia somewhat unnecessary.
There are tonnes of Remainers (as well as Brexiteers) posting on here who live outside the UK. There are also Scottish Nationalists who don't live in Scotland.
So what !
AFAIK, no-one has suggested the Remainer viewpoint of Edmund_in_Tokyo is somehow less valid because he is not Edmund_in_Torquay.2 -
A Norway-style Brexit without any backstop would be fine with me.williamglenn said:
Do you think a Norway-style Brexit would represent the same kind of violation on a UK-wide basis?Philip_Thompson said:
No.OllyT said:
Do you and your family have the ability to return to Australia?Philip_Thompson said:
The backstop is not.another_richard said:
Notice that there isn't an option for Leave with a deal harder than May's.CarlottaVance said:
That is because May's deal IS Hard Brexit.
And it will certainly be a harder Brexit than many of those now supporting No Deal were asking for three years ago.
I wonder how many of those now supporting No Deal have considered the cost/benefit and risks/rewards of that compared to May's deal.
I appreciate that this is a personal question and I would not normally ask it but you are probably the most gung-ho Brexiteer currently on PB and give the impression that no price would be too great to pay to achieve it. I am always left wondering whether, unlike most of us, you have an escape route if you proved to be wrong.
We were there on a temporary visa which has long-since expired. To emigrate would require starting from scratch. Plus I was there because of my dad's work not my own.
I am not a gung-ho Brexiteer in my eyes, I would be prepared to Remain which most other Brexiteers aren't. I am a gung-ho democrat.
My issue, which most others don't seem to care about, is that to me the backstop is a violation of fundamental human rights. I would no more be prepared to suspend democracy due to the backstop than I would to terminate democracy and live under a Chinese One Party state. Democracy is unquestionable for me, all other considerations come afterwards.0 -
Even though it also means accepting rules we don't have a say in?Philip_Thompson said:
A Norway-style Brexit without any backstop would be fine with me.williamglenn said:
Do you think a Norway-style Brexit would represent the same kind of violation on a UK-wide basis?Philip_Thompson said:
No.OllyT said:
Do you and your family have the ability to return to Australia?Philip_Thompson said:
The backstop is not.another_richard said:
Notice that there isn't an option for Leave with a deal harder than May's.CarlottaVance said:
That is because May's deal IS Hard Brexit.
And it will certainly be a harder Brexit than many of those now supporting No Deal were asking for three years ago.
I wonder how many of those now supporting No Deal have considered the cost/benefit and risks/rewards of that compared to May's deal.
I appreciate that this is a personal question and I would not normally ask it but you are probably the most gung-ho Brexiteer currently on PB and give the impression that no price would be too great to pay to achieve it. I am always left wondering whether, unlike most of us, you have an escape route if you proved to be wrong.
We were there on a temporary visa which has long-since expired. To emigrate would require starting from scratch. Plus I was there because of my dad's work not my own.
I am not a gung-ho Brexiteer in my eyes, I would be prepared to Remain which most other Brexiteers aren't. I am a gung-ho democrat.
My issue, which most others don't seem to care about, is that to me the backstop is a violation of fundamental human rights. I would no more be prepared to suspend democracy due to the backstop than I would to terminate democracy and live under a Chinese One Party state. Democracy is unquestionable for me, all other considerations come afterwards.0 -
Iowa will be about as good as it gets for Buttigieg - interesting Booker is ahead of Harris here though...
Iowa Democratic Primary Poll: Biden 27%, Warren 20%, Sanders 18%, Buttigieg 17%, Booker 5%, Harris 4%, Klobuchar 2%, Delaney 2%, O’Rourke 1%, Yang 1%, Gravel 1%, Gabbard 1%, Castro 1%, Moulton 1%0 -
When the LibDem contest is over we can go back to ignoring Ed Davey. We last had a government of national unity to fight the second world war. Not all of the war, just the middle bit. Winning the war was a popular cause. On Brexit, we cannot even achieve Cabinet unity or ERG unity.rottenborough said:
Ed Davey floating possibility of Gov of National Unity - maybe under Cooper or Benn.IanB2 said:
They’ll all be in the same party by then.Roger said:
I agree. But our politics aren't ready for nice guys yet. The zeitgeist might change and in a year or two we'll have Milliband D V Greening V Swinson and we'll all live happily ever after.Alanbrooke said:
Thornberry is probably the worst of all outcomes - narrow minded, selfrighteous and vindictive,Roger said:Brexit or no Brexit the only thing that would create the chain reaction necessary to bring sanity back to our politics would be for Corbyn to fall under the proverbial bus. He can't win because his appeal is too limited but fear of him means the Tories are panicked into accepting the poisonous Johnson. We are stuck either side of a U-bend which is so clogged up no normal solvents will clear it.
Come on Thornberry. Time to get your hands dirty0 -
"A small but dangerous possibility"? No, it`s with us already. It started with the recent elections to the European Parliament.Dadge said:This would appear to be true, but it isn't. He was supposed to be the issue in 2017, with most of the PLP railing against him, but it turned out that the opposite was the case.
Corbyn is not the issue, Brexit is the issue, ie. how much salience will it have in a pre-Brexit GE? In 2017 the answer was "not much", and Corbyn is relying on the fact that the same will be true again. But although FPTP is a great ally to the Labour Party, since there are so many seats where it's hard to argue that the LibDems or Greens have any chance (I predict that we'll start to see a LOT of LibDem-style barcharts in Labour leaflets) the crystallisation of UK voters into Leavers and Remainers presents the small but dangerous possibility that Labour and Tories will change from being the squeezers to being the squeezed.0 -
Quite. it is in any event a curious argument for those who believe in a wider European polity to be making.YBarddCwsc said:I find the interrogation of Philip Thompson and his right to live in Australia somewhat unnecessary.
There are tonnes of Remainers (as well as Brexiteers) posting on here who live outside the UK. There are also Scottish Nationalists who don't live in Scotland.
So what !
AFAIK, no-one has suggested the Remainer viewpoint of Edmund_in_Tokyo is somehow less valid because he is not Edmund_in_Torquay.
(Though there is a reasonable point to be made about those living overseas dismissing out of hand the likely hardships resulting from a no deal Brexit, I suppose.)0 -
I think a National Government might be the only viable way out of this mess as I can see no positive outcome with Boris or alternatively Corbyn.Scott_P said:0
This discussion has been closed.