Johnson is promising higher public spending, lower taxes and an almost inevitable No Deal Brexit. It's the Magic Money Tree + Fuck Business. I am genuinely struggling to understand how this is better than the prospectus Corbyn and McDonnell are offering. At least they are opposed to a No Deal. The Tories are utterly destroying any reputation they have left for economic confidence - and if that YouGov poll is in any way reflective of public opinion they are going to get absolutely hammered for it.
The 2017 Labour manifesto was modest and pragmatic, more sensible and less ideologically driven than the stuff coming out the Tories right now.
Without exaggeration, Corbyn is currently the more conservative, pragmatic option for PM. That is a measure of how far we have come.
I can believe it. Corbyn, I believe, would be awful, and we know so many of his skeletons now. I shall not vote for his party. But while the idea people are restrained in office is not something one can rely on, he is not the same as he was when he got the job, for better and worse.
The tories are regressing and openly admit that they would rather destroy the uk than not Brexit, heck theyd rather do that than Brexit the wrong way. Add in that they will splurge like mad to try to buy votes to cover their incompetence if the past few years and Boris and Hunt dont look pragmatic on the least.
We will likely find out how bad Corbyn could be. But it's not hugely scary.
Particularly as he is likely to be constrained by needing SNP or LibDem support, not to mention his relatively weak position with his own MPs.
Johnson is promising higher public spending, lower taxes and an almost inevitable No Deal Brexit. It's the Magic Money Tree + Fuck Business. I am genuinely struggling to understand how this is better than the prospectus Corbyn and McDonnell are offering. At least they are opposed to a No Deal. The Tories are utterly destroying any reputation they have left for economic confidence - and if that YouGov poll is in any way reflective of public opinion they are going to get absolutely hammered for it.
The Yougov poll showing No Deal preferred to Revoke you mean?
No, the one today that shows only 28% want No Deal.
It’s the headbangers that’s want it, but many others see it as the only way to get out of the situation.
Pondering the Boris and VONC issues raised here and elsewhere recently, is it possible that the Tory leadership result will be mysteriously delayed by 48 hours or so, so that Boris (or Hunt) becomes prime minister during the Commons recess? Currently voting closes on the 22nd, and recess starts on the 25th.
This would give the new prime minister well over a month with no danger of confidence votes; six weeks in which to shore up support from the DUP and his own backbenchers and for exploratory talks with the EU.
Johnson is promising higher public spending, lower taxes and an almost inevitable No Deal Brexit. It's the Magic Money Tree + Fuck Business. I am genuinely struggling to understand how this is better than the prospectus Corbyn and McDonnell are offering. At least they are opposed to a No Deal. The Tories are utterly destroying any reputation they have left for economic confidence - and if that YouGov poll is in any way reflective of public opinion they are going to get absolutely hammered for it.
The Yougov poll showing No Deal preferred to Revoke you mean?
No, the one today that shows only 28% want No Deal.
The one that showed 57% want to Leave the EU with a Deal or No Deal you mean
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
Support for No Deal and May's Deal now at 43% ie almost the same as support for Remain, most of those prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain.
The 13% who back a soft Brexit are key to a majority but they still back Brexit.
While 81% of Remainers back Revoke and Remain 59% of Leavers back No Deal Brexit as the country polarised, with 73% of Leavers backing Leaving with No Deal or May's Deal
Mr. Foremain, that is an intensely frustrating aspect of real-life (and one of the most intriguing parts of sci-fi).
How would things be if we'd voted 52% Remain?
In the short term, they'd almost certainly be calmer. Cameron would be PM. But would Farage be leading UKIP towards become the Official Opposition?
How would things progress over the years?
Certainly, the political class has handled the vote to Leave poorly (one might argue the toss about what option is best/least worst, but a majority in Parliament opposing every option helps no-one).
Corbyn does have voter appeal. He is far more charismatic than most politicians. In the 2017 election he was impressive on the stump. The fact Labour ended up with 40% owed a lot to that.
He's a good campaigner but I see no evidence at all of charisma. He comes across as a cranky old git with very limited intellectual and leadership capacities.
Labour would be in a far happier place if Yvette Cooper had won in 2015 and I suspect most of them know it.
I voted for Cooper, but I don’t think Labour would be better off. Choosing a leader from the left was the right move. The brutal truth was that the Labour right was tired and they needed more than managerial competence.
Corbyn is charismatic. The tragedy is that Corbyn also brought with him some people with 30 years of baggage and bitterness, sometimes motivated more by defeating Blairites than winning power.
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
There is a mandate to Leave Deal preferred, if not No Deal.
Support for No Deal and May's Deal now at 43% ie almost the same as support for Remain, most of those prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain.
The 13% who back a soft Brexit are key to a majority but they still back Brexit.
While 81% of Remainers back Revoke and Remain 59% of Leavers back No Deal Brexit as the country polarised, with 73% of Leavers backing Leaving with No Deal or May's Deal
I don't think you are reading that right - it's 33% want No Deal 66% want anything except for No Deal..
If Boris leaves the EU with a deal I don't think he has a problem - the issue is that he's committed to a date that makes No Deal almost inevitable... And that is likely to result in him being a very short term PM..
Both No Deal and Remain have increased a little since a similar poll in April, at the expense of May's Deal. Something in the Soft Brexit space is where I think we'll end up eventually and that incorporates the Withdrawal Agreement aka May's Deal
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
fair comment Jonathan, but I was really defining voter appeal in the sense of someone who can reach beyond their base. Mrs Thatcher and Blair could do this, which is probably why they were/are so hated by some. Corbyn's basic problem is he simply a contrarian, and not really very bright. If he were replaced by almost anyone in the Labour Party they would be 20 percentage points ahead.
If we believe that the Labour policies are less of a problem who would make the best leader without the baggage of ‘new labour’?
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
Hmm Grieve and Boles are only 2 MPs. Exactly how many ERG members voted against May's Deal because it wasn't hard enough?
Support for No Deal and May's Deal now at 43% ie almost the same as support for Remain, most of those prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain.
The 13% who back a soft Brexit are key to a majority but they still back Brexit.
While 81% of Remainers back Revoke and Remain 59% of Leavers back No Deal Brexit as the country polarised, with 73% of Leavers backing Leaving with No Deal or May's Deal
It is the wrong question. The pollsters should ask whether people want life to get better after Brexit or to get worse.
That is the problem for the government. If project fear is even half right, then voters will either blame HMG for Brexit or for their economic policies, but they will blame the government.
Support for No Deal and May's Deal now at 43% ie almost the same as support for Remain, most of those prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain.
The 13% who back a soft Brexit are key to a majority but they still back Brexit.
While 81% of Remainers back Revoke and Remain 59% of Leavers back No Deal Brexit as the country polarised, with 73% of Leavers backing Leaving with No Deal or May's Deal
It is the wrong question. The pollsters should ask whether people want life to get better after Brexit or to get worse.
That is the problem for the government. If project fear is even half right, then voters will either blame HMG for Brexit or for their economic policies, but they will blame the government.
Support for No Deal and May's Deal now at 43% ie almost the same as support for Remain, most of those prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain.
The 13% who back a soft Brexit are key to a majority but they still back Brexit.
While 81% of Remainers back Revoke and Remain 59% of Leavers back No Deal Brexit as the country polarised, with 73% of Leavers backing Leaving with No Deal or May's Deal
It is the wrong question. The pollsters should ask whether people want life to get better after Brexit or to get worse.
That is the problem for the government. If project fear is even half right, then voters will either blame HMG for Brexit or for their economic policies, but they will blame the government.
Exactly. HY is blind to the fact that "but you told us this was what you wanted!" isn't going to persuade people after the event. And they're only chasing a quarter of the population in the first place, some of whom are people who would never vote Tory.
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
Hmm Grieve and Boles are only 2 MPs. Exactly how many ERG members voted against May's Deal because it wasn't hard enough?
If every MP who voted against May's deal because it wasn't hard enough had backed it, it would still have lost. If the MPs opposed to No Deal had backed it, it would have passed.
Support for No Deal and May's Deal now at 43% ie almost the same as support for Remain, most of those prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain.
The 13% who back a soft Brexit are key to a majority but they still back Brexit.
While 81% of Remainers back Revoke and Remain 59% of Leavers back No Deal Brexit as the country polarised, with 73% of Leavers backing Leaving with No Deal or May's Deal
I don't think you are reading that right - it's 33% want No Deal 66% want anything except for No Deal..
If Boris leaves the EU with a deal I don't think he has a problem - the issue is that he's committed to a date that makes No Deal almost inevitable... And that is likely to result in him being a very short term PM..
You can play that every way. There is a majority against EVERY position if you make it position x versus "not x"
Support for No Deal and May's Deal now at 43% ie almost the same as support for Remain, most of those prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain.
The 13% who back a soft Brexit are key to a majority but they still back Brexit.
While 81% of Remainers back Revoke and Remain 59% of Leavers back No Deal Brexit as the country polarised, with 73% of Leavers backing Leaving with No Deal or May's Deal
It is the wrong question. The pollsters should ask whether people want life to get better after Brexit or to get worse.
That is the problem for the government. If project fear is even half right, then voters will either blame HMG for Brexit or for their economic policies, but they will blame the government.
Exactly. HY is blind to the fact that "but you told us this was what you wanted!" isn't going to persuade people after the event. And they're only chasing a quarter of the population in the first place, some of whom are people who would never vote Tory.
The country supported the Labour government’s spending plans pretty much from 1997 to 2008 then decided Labour had chronically overspent from 1997 onwards.
Corbyn does have voter appeal. He is far more charismatic than most politicians. In the 2017 election he was impressive on the stump. The fact Labour ended up with 40% owed a lot to that.
He's a good campaigner but I see no evidence at all of charisma. He comes across as a cranky old git with very limited intellectual and leadership capacities.
Labour would be in a far happier place if Yvette Cooper had won in 2015 and I suspect most of them know it.
I voted for Cooper, but I don’t think Labour would be better off. Choosing a leader from the left was the right move. The brutal truth was that the Labour right was tired and they needed more than managerial competence.
Corbyn is charismatic. The tragedy is that Corbyn also brought with him some people with 30 years of baggage and bitterness, sometimes motivated more by defeating Blairites than winning power.
Tories seem blind to how relatively modest the real world disruption and damage from a no deal exit would need to be, to tarnish their reputation for a generation.
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
MPs should act in a way that represents the best interests of their constituents, the referendum does not remove that requirement on how to act. They should stick to their conscience and do what Erskine May tells them is their duty, even if it means losing their seat.
Support for No Deal and May's Deal now at 43% ie almost the same as support for Remain, most of those prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain.
The 13% who back a soft Brexit are key to a majority but they still back Brexit.
While 81% of Remainers back Revoke and Remain 59% of Leavers back No Deal Brexit as the country polarised, with 73% of Leavers backing Leaving with No Deal or May's Deal
I don't think you are reading that right - it's 33% want No Deal 66% want anything except for No Deal..
If Boris leaves the EU with a deal I don't think he has a problem - the issue is that he's committed to a date that makes No Deal almost inevitable... And that is likely to result in him being a very short term PM..
You can play that every way. There is a majority against EVERY position if you make it position x versus "not x"
On that we can agree. Therein lies the problem.
At some point the government will have to do 'x'.
And find that a majority of the population wanted 'not x'.
(and a bunch more wanted 'x' to turn out differently)
F1: markets for Austria are up. Bottas is 4 for the win. I've backed that each way (essentially, green if he wins, flat if he's 2nd). He's been driving well for most of this year, bit iffy last time out possibly due to tyres, but in 2018 outqualified Hamilton for pole.
There 's also a special worth considering.
Mercedes double top 4 finish, Verstappen top 6 finish, and Racing Point and Williams double classified finish. That's 3.25. A lot of contingencies but there's been a very high rate of every one of them occurring so far this season. Might be worth a look.
Anyway, I like the Bottas bet. The special's a bit more of a maybe for me.
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
MPs should act in a way that represents the best interests of their constituents, the referendum does not remove that requirement on how to act. They should stick to their conscience and do what Erskine May tells them is their duty, even if it means losing their seat.
MPs who are saying that leaving without a deal is apocalyptic but then voted against the deal haven't done that. And that is hundreds of MPs.
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
MPs should act in a way that represents the best interests of their constituents, the referendum does not remove that requirement on how to act. They should stick to their conscience and do what Erskine May tells them is their duty, even if it means losing their seat.
MPs who are saying that leaving without a deal is apocalyptic but then voted against the deal haven't done that. And that is hundreds of MPs.
Everyone knows the ERG is to blame by trashing the deal from the outset. Your attempts to re-write history are not working.
Tories seem blind to how relatively modest the real world disruption and damage from a no deal exit would need to be, to tarnish their reputation for a generation.
Diehard Remainers refuse to respect the vote to Leave, Deal or No Deal
He’s the MP, my MP who I wrote to with concerns on my status in Spain, prior to the referendum. He told me not to worry because if we did vote to leave we would never leave EEA/EFTA as the economic impact would be too great.
Tories seem blind to how relatively modest the real world disruption and damage from a no deal exit would need to be, to tarnish their reputation for a generation.
A recession is when your neighbour loses their job, a depression is when you lose yours...
A lot of people who lose their jobs will blame Brexit (and from that the Tory party) even if it had nothing to do with Brexit... Equally any issue regarding anything will be Brexit and so the Tory's fault...
Johnson is promising higher public spending, lower taxes and an almost inevitable No Deal Brexit. It's the Magic Money Tree + Fuck Business. I am genuinely struggling to understand how this is better than the prospectus Corbyn and McDonnell are offering. At least they are opposed to a No Deal. The Tories are utterly destroying any reputation they have left for economic confidence - and if that YouGov poll is in any way reflective of public opinion they are going to get absolutely hammered for it.
The Yougov poll showing No Deal preferred to Revoke you mean?
No, the one today that shows only 28% want No Deal.
The one that showed 57% want to Leave the EU with a Deal or No Deal you mean
The one that shows support for No Deal at 28%, yes.
Support for No Deal and May's Deal now at 43% ie almost the same as support for Remain, most of those prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain.
The 13% who back a soft Brexit are key to a majority but they still back Brexit.
While 81% of Remainers back Revoke and Remain 59% of Leavers back No Deal Brexit as the country polarised, with 73% of Leavers backing Leaving with No Deal or May's Deal
I don't think you are reading that right - it's 33% want No Deal 66% want anything except for No Deal..
If Boris leaves the EU with a deal I don't think he has a problem - the issue is that he's committed to a date that makes No Deal almost inevitable... And that is likely to result in him being a very short term PM..
You can play that every way. There is a majority against EVERY position if you make it position x versus "not x"
On that we can agree. Therein lies the problem.
At some point the government will have to do 'x'.
And find that a majority of the population wanted 'not x'.
(and a bunch more wanted 'x' to turn out differently)
This is an extreme version of how politics is: govt/parliament does what the people want etc, but the people, who by definition can't be criticised, are allowed to change their minds retrospectively. To govern is to choose, and to choose what people will want afterwards not before. Listening to Raab speaking on behalf of Boris this morning the tactic at the moment is to say that 31 Oct is the deadline (which of course it won't necessarily be in fact) but that No Deal on that date will be EU's fault. In truth parliament will give Boris cover for being 'forced' to shift his ground if (big if) he gets to October.
Support for No Deal and May's Deal now at 43% ie almost the same as support for Remain, most of those prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain.
The 13% who back a soft Brexit are key to a majority but they still back Brexit.
While 81% of Remainers back Revoke and Remain 59% of Leavers back No Deal Brexit as the country polarised, with 73% of Leavers backing Leaving with No Deal or May's Deal
I don't think you are reading that right - it's 33% want No Deal 66% want anything except for No Deal..
If Boris leaves the EU with a deal I don't think he has a problem - the issue is that he's committed to a date that makes No Deal almost inevitable... And that is likely to result in him being a very short term PM..
Boris wants a Canada style FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop in NI which is what most voters want.
Boris only backs No Deal as a last resort to avoid revoke
Johnson is promising higher public spending, lower taxes and an almost inevitable No Deal Brexit. It's the Magic Money Tree + Fuck Business. I am genuinely struggling to understand how this is better than the prospectus Corbyn and McDonnell are offering. At least they are opposed to a No Deal. The Tories are utterly destroying any reputation they have left for economic confidence - and if that YouGov poll is in any way reflective of public opinion they are going to get absolutely hammered for it.
The Yougov poll showing No Deal preferred to Revoke you mean?
No, the one today that shows only 28% want No Deal.
It’s the headbangers that’s want it, but many others see it as the only way to get out of the situation.
That may well be the case right now. But it strongly indicates a long-term calamity for the Tories should Johnson’s No Deal departure turn out not to be the triumphant journey to sunlit uplands the Brexit loons are promising.
Tories seem blind to how relatively modest the real world disruption and damage from a no deal exit would need to be, to tarnish their reputation for a generation.
Diehard Remainers refuse to respect the vote to Leave, Deal or No Deal
Good for them, doing their job as it is supposed to be done.
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
MPs should act in a way that represents the best interests of their constituents, the referendum does not remove that requirement on how to act. They should stick to their conscience and do what Erskine May tells them is their duty, even if it means losing their seat.
MPs who are saying that leaving without a deal is apocalyptic but then voted against the deal haven't done that. And that is hundreds of MPs.
Everyone knows the ERG is to blame by trashing the deal from the outset. Your attempts to re-write history are not working.
The idea that if the ERG had said "fantastic this deal is as hard as we wanted" then Remainers would have rowed in behind it is absolutely preposterous.
Furthermore the ERG have said all along that they were and are prepared to leave without a deal. So rejecting the deal makes sense if that is your alternative. For those who say that No Deal is the worst thing imaginable rejecting the deal makes no sense.
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
MPs should act in a way that represents the best interests of their constituents, the referendum does not remove that requirement on how to act. They should stick to their conscience and do what Erskine May tells them is their duty, even if it means losing their seat.
MPs who are saying that leaving without a deal is apocalyptic but then voted against the deal haven't done that. And that is hundreds of MPs.
Leaving the EU is not good for the best interests of their constituents.
The GATT nonsense is just mendacious Unicorn-chasing designed to provide plausibility to a credulous Tory membership. No-one serious believes it will survive contact with the real world. Johnson will have no choice but to find a way to take the UK out of the EU by 31st October. He has placed himself in a position where he has no alternative if he wishes to survive politically.
The political non-survival of Boris Johnson is a sacrifice that I am prepared to make.
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
MPs should act in a way that represents the best interests of their constituents, the referendum does not remove that requirement on how to act. They should stick to their conscience and do what Erskine May tells them is their duty, even if it means losing their seat.
MPs who are saying that leaving without a deal is apocalyptic but then voted against the deal haven't done that. And that is hundreds of MPs.
Everyone knows the ERG is to blame by trashing the deal from the outset. Your attempts to re-write history are not working.
The idea that if the ERG had said "fantastic this deal is as hard as we wanted" then Remainers would have rowed in behind it is absolutely preposterous.
Furthermore the ERG have said all along that they were and are prepared to leave without a deal. So rejecting the deal makes sense if that is your alternative. For those who say that No Deal is the worst thing imaginable rejecting the deal makes no sense.
It helps, to avoid looking like a retarded zealot, to have read the transition agreement before claiming that it’s an outrage to public decency.
Support for No Deal and May's Deal now at 43% ie almost the same as support for Remain, most of those prefer No Deal to Revoke and Remain.
The 13% who back a soft Brexit are key to a majority but they still back Brexit.
While 81% of Remainers back Revoke and Remain 59% of Leavers back No Deal Brexit as the country polarised, with 73% of Leavers backing Leaving with No Deal or May's Deal
I don't think you are reading that right - it's 33% want No Deal 66% want anything except for No Deal..
If Boris leaves the EU with a deal I don't think he has a problem - the issue is that he's committed to a date that makes No Deal almost inevitable... And that is likely to result in him being a very short term PM..
You can play that every way. There is a majority against EVERY position if you make it position x versus "not x"
On that we can agree. Therein lies the problem.
At some point the government will have to do 'x'.
And find that a majority of the population wanted 'not x'.
(and a bunch more wanted 'x' to turn out differently)
This is an extreme version of how politics is: govt/parliament does what the people want etc, but the people, who by definition can't be criticised, are allowed to change their minds retrospectively. To govern is to choose, and to choose what people will want afterwards not before. Listening to Raab speaking on behalf of Boris this morning the tactic at the moment is to say that 31 Oct is the deadline (which of course it won't necessarily be in fact) but that No Deal on that date will be EU's fault. In truth parliament will give Boris cover for being 'forced' to shift his ground if (big if) he gets to October.
That's going to be the excuse they will try afterwards, but it will only wash with the diehards. There have been so many warnings for such a long time about no deal that the government will be blamed squarely for the adverse consequences.
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
MPs should act in a way that represents the best interests of their constituents, the referendum does not remove that requirement on how to act. They should stick to their conscience and do what Erskine May tells them is their duty, even if it means losing their seat.
MPs who are saying that leaving without a deal is apocalyptic but then voted against the deal haven't done that. And that is hundreds of MPs.
Everyone knows the ERG is to blame by trashing the deal from the outset. Your attempts to re-write history are not working.
The idea that if the ERG had said "fantastic this deal is as hard as we wanted" then Remainers would have rowed in behind it is absolutely preposterous.
Furthermore the ERG have said all along that they were and are prepared to leave without a deal. So rejecting the deal makes sense if that is your alternative. For those who say that No Deal is the worst thing imaginable rejecting the deal makes no sense.
It helps, to avoid looking like a retarded zealot, to have read the transition agreement before claiming that it’s an outrage to public decency.
I have no issue with the transition.
It helps, to avoid looking like a retarded zealot, to read posts before you reply.
Tories seem blind to how relatively modest the real world disruption and damage from a no deal exit would need to be, to tarnish their reputation for a generation.
Diehard Remainers refuse to respect the vote to Leave, Deal or No Deal
As an exemplar of Tory blindness, your reply to my point is perfect.
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
MPs should act in a way that represents the best interests of their constituents, the referendum does not remove that requirement on how to act. They should stick to their conscience and do what Erskine May tells them is their duty, even if it means losing their seat.
MPs who are saying that leaving without a deal is apocalyptic but then voted against the deal haven't done that. And that is hundreds of MPs.
Everyone knows the ERG is to blame by trashing the deal from the outset. Your attempts to re-write history are not working.
The idea that if the ERG had said "fantastic this deal is as hard as we wanted" then Remainers would have rowed in behind it is absolutely preposterous.
Furthermore the ERG have said all along that they were and are prepared to leave without a deal. So rejecting the deal makes sense if that is your alternative. For those who say that No Deal is the worst thing imaginable rejecting the deal makes no sense.
The ERG are Tory MPs elected to support Government Policy (for the Tories are the Government). By not supporting the Tory Government the ERG allowed everyone else to reject the deal
We can argue this for as long as you want as the ERG (who were elected with May as leader) don't support the deal no-one else has to..
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
MPs should act in a way that represents the best interests of their constituents, the referendum does not remove that requirement on how to act. They should stick to their conscience and do what Erskine May tells them is their duty, even if it means losing their seat.
MPs who are saying that leaving without a deal is apocalyptic but then voted against the deal haven't done that. And that is hundreds of MPs.
Leaving the EU is not good for the best interests of their constituents.
Such was the claim before the referendum. That claim was rejected.
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
MPs should act in a way that represents the best interests of their constituents, the referendum does not remove that requirement on how to act. They should stick to their conscience and do what Erskine May tells them is their duty, even if it means losing their seat.
MPs who are saying that leaving without a deal is apocalyptic but then voted against the deal haven't done that. And that is hundreds of MPs.
Everyone knows the ERG is to blame by trashing the deal from the outset. Your attempts to re-write history are not working.
The idea that if the ERG had said "fantastic this deal is as hard as we wanted" then Remainers would have rowed in behind it is absolutely preposterous.
Furthermore the ERG have said all along that they were and are prepared to leave without a deal. So rejecting the deal makes sense if that is your alternative. For those who say that No Deal is the worst thing imaginable rejecting the deal makes no sense.
It helps, to avoid looking like a retarded zealot, to have read the transition agreement before claiming that it’s an outrage to public decency.
I have no issue with the transition.
It helps, to avoid looking like a retarded zealot, to read posts before you reply.
I think either Warren or Sanders will get the nomination, once one drops out most of their support will go to the other and combined they have more support than Biden
Now, I'll grant that a chunk of this is still name recognition which is holding Biden and Sanders higher than they'll be ultimately, but the fact that we've seen Sanders support drop and Warren support rise suggests that voters are finally tuning in. I wouldn't be surprised to the second choices cross over enough to create *some* left-candidate consolidation, but even if you go from the 2:3 split this polling is showing to say 3:2 or even 2:1, that's not a humungous net advantage when the score you're sharing out is from a candidate who didn't get traction.
At current prices starting De Novo I reckon something like
Biden - Green Warren - Green Buttigieg - Lay, Red (Max right now) Sanders - Neutral Harris - Lay, Red Yang - Lay, Red Beto - Neutral Klobuchar - Neutral Gabbard - Lay, Red Clinton, Obama, Winfrey - Lay depending on book size to max Red Booker - Back, green
I'd be wary of laying Joe at 9-4 personally (And I'm not). He could blow it but if the contest remains as is (Hey it might not) then he'd be 4-9 with the polling or shorter.
While Harris' odds are too short, I would not dismiss her chances. She is another who is very much liked by the Democratic electorate, and it is not inconceivable her campaign could take off.
In any event, this week will provide an inflection point in the race.
And if the ERG had all voted for the deal it would have still failed.
The deal failed because there were over 200 MPs who were elected on a manifesto pledging to leave the EU who claim that No Deal is unthinkable but rejected the deal. If we get out on no deal then the MPs who voted against the deal should look in the mirror before blaming others.
I think either Warren or Sanders will get the nomination, once one drops out most of their support will go to the other and combined they have more support than Biden
Now, I'll grant that a chunk of this is still name recognition which is holding Biden and Sanders higher than they'll be ultimately, but the fact that we've seen Sanders support drop and Warren support rise suggests that voters are finally tuning in. I wouldn't be surprised to the second choices cross over enough to create *some* left-candidate consolidation, but even if you go from the 2:3 split this polling is showing to say 3:2 or even 2:1, that's not a net advantage when the score you're sharing out is from a candidate who didn't get traction.
At current prices starting De Novo I reckon something like
Biden - Green Warren - Green Buttigieg - Lay, Red (Max right now) Sanders - Neutral Harris - Lay, Red Yang - Lay, Red Beto - Neutral Klobuchar - Neutral Gabbard - Lay, Red Clinton, Obama, Winfrey - Lay depending on book size to max Red Booker - Back, green
I'd be wary of laying Joe at 9-4 personally (And I'm not). He could blow it but if the contest remains as is (Hey it might not) then he'd be 4-9 with the polling or shorter.
While Harris' odds are too short, I would not dismiss her chances. She is another who is very much liked by the Democratic electorate, and it is not inconceivable her campaign could take off.
In any event, this week will provide an inflection point in the race.
I'd agree with that - Her price is too short but she's not a no hoper.
Notice that there isn't an option for Leave with a deal harder than May's.
That is because May's deal IS Hard Brexit.
And it will certainly be a harder Brexit than many of those now supporting No Deal were asking for three years ago.
I wonder how many of those now supporting No Deal have considered the cost/benefit and risks/rewards of that compared to May's deal.
For most of the country, the costs/benefits no longer matter. It is about being a winner/loser in the fiercest political debate of our lifetimes. This applies to remainers on the revoke/2nd reffers side almost as much as to the no deal nutters. People are no longer being rational but behaving like toddlers seeking an immediate fix.
I think either Warren or Sanders will get the nomination, once one drops out most of their support will go to the other and combined they have more support than Biden
Now, I'll grant that a chunk of this is still name recognition which is holding Biden and Sanders higher than they'll be ultimately, but the fact that we've seen Sanders support drop and Warren support rise suggests that voters are finally tuning in. I wouldn't be surprised to the second choices cross over enough to create *some* left-candidate consolidation, but even if you go from the 2:3 split this polling is showing to say 3:2 or even 2:1, that's not a net advantage when the score you're sharing out is from a candidate who didn't get traction.
The other (widely unacknowledged) point is that a lot of voters have not yet made up their minds,
According to the survey, published Monday by The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in collaboration with U.K.-based research firm YouGov, one of the most “disconcerting” findings was that “a large hawkish minority lurks within the U.S. public; over a third of respondents approve of a U.S. preventive strike across the scenarios and appear insensitive to informational cues that most security experts would expect to reduce such levels of support.”
Surprisingly, the researchers found, little changed when the scenarios were switched from a conventional to a nuclear attack. Rather, it said, “33 percent preferred a preventive nuclear first-strike.”
“Even more disturbing: There is no significant change in the percentage who would prefer or approve of a U.S. nuclear strike when the number of estimated North Korean fatalities increases from 15,000 to 1.1 million, including 1 million civilians,” the researchers behind the survey wrote....
If it comes to that then yes, but generally the field consolidates fairly early on, and you need 15% in any given district/state to even score, so if you're the losing lefty candidate and you're running for say 1/5 of the race at around 10%, you probably don't have an enormous haul of delegates to hand over to the winning lefty candidate.
Also although there's some ideological alignment between Warren and Sanders, there's a lot of friction between the two tribes, so I'm not sure the one would hand their delegates over to the other, and if they did it's not clear that the delegates would follow.
Well that is a relief. El Duce's vanity project party have reduced by another percentage point.
If there is an election this year it looks like under FPTP it will come down to whether the Tories can squeeze TBP harder than Labour can squeeze the Lib Dems/Greens.
We are heading for a perfect storm with a ludicrous electoral system that only gives a realistic choice of the same 2 parties year in year out both of which have been captured by an extreme and unrepresentative membership.
You only have to look at how the political landscape has changed in recent years European countries that have PR whilst we remain forever stuck in a Labour-Tory time-warp. iI'll be sitting it out again and for the rest of my life at this rate.
The two main parties are like a pair of old drunks being held upright by the electoral system.
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
MPs should act in a way that represents the best interests of their constituents, the referendum does not remove that requirement on how to act. They should stick to their conscience and do what Erskine May tells them is their duty, even if it means losing their seat.
MPs who are saying that leaving without a deal is apocalyptic but then voted against the deal haven't done that. And that is hundreds of MPs.
Leaving the EU is not good for the best interests of their constituents.
Such was the claim before the referendum. That claim was rejected.
The mandate of the MPs in the current Parliament postdates the referendum. Few, if any, MPs stood on a platform of no-deal in 2017. You can’t cherrypick your mandates. Then again, as an Australian, this shitstorm doesn’t effect you anyway.
And if the ERG had all voted for the deal it would have still failed.
The deal failed because there were over 200 MPs who were elected on a manifesto pledging to leave the EU who claim that No Deal is unthinkable but rejected the deal. If we get out on no deal then the MPs who voted against the deal should look in the mirror before blaming others.
No, the government's deal failed because it was immediately trashed by so many on its own side.
Well that is a relief. El Duce's vanity project party have reduced by another percentage point.
If there is an election this year it looks like under FPTP it will come down to whether the Tories can squeeze TBP harder than Labour can squeeze the Lib Dems.
We are heading for a perfect storm with a ludicrous electoral system that only gives a realistic choice of the same 2 parties year in year out both of which have been captured by an extreme and unrepresentative membership.
You only have to look at how the political landscape has changed in recent years European countries that have PR whilst we remain forever stuck in a Labour-Tory time-warp. iI'll be sitting it out again and for the rest of my life at this rate.
The two main parties are like a pair of old drunks being held upright by the electoral system.
My spidey senses indicate Brexit party euro voters (It won't be all 5 million from the Euros but "enough") will be prepared to back Boris so long as he hasn't breached the kamikaze 31st Oct deadline. Hence he needs to go for an election sooner rather than later if that's his plan. Any sort of 2020 - 22 right now looks bad for the Tories.
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
MPs should act in a way that represents the best interests of their constituents, the referendum does not remove that requirement on how to act. They should stick to their conscience and do what Erskine May tells them is their duty, even if it means losing their seat.
MPs who are saying that leaving without a deal is apocalyptic but then voted against the deal haven't done that. And that is hundreds of MPs.
Leaving the EU is not good for the best interests of their constituents.
Such was the claim before the referendum. That claim was rejected.
The mandate of the MPs in the current Parliament postdates the referendum. Few, if any, MPs stood on a platform of no-deal in 2017. You can’t cherrypick your mandates. Then again, as an Australian, this shitstorm doesn’t effect you anyway.
He's yet another expat wishing calamity on us from a safe distance? I didn't realise. Shameful.
Notice that there isn't an option for Leave with a deal harder than May's.
That is because May's deal IS Hard Brexit.
And it will certainly be a harder Brexit than many of those now supporting No Deal were asking for three years ago.
I wonder how many of those now supporting No Deal have considered the cost/benefit and risks/rewards of that compared to May's deal.
The backstop is not.
How many people could tell you what the backstop is ?
Its meaningless to the average person's life.
It is more surreal than that. The backstop is a favourable set of economic rules for NI. They are rules the EU spent most of 2017 trying to block the UK from getting, having cake and eating it as well. Polls show people in NI welcome the backstop.
NI is a poor part of the country, it needs boosts to its economy. A windfall is being offered. Whilst there may be a democratic deficit, NI is more than used to that, their assembly does not even sit anymore. The economic boost would be far more helpful to people in the NI than the political cost.
Notice that there isn't an option for Leave with a deal harder than May's.
That is because May's deal IS Hard Brexit.
And it will certainly be a harder Brexit than many of those now supporting No Deal were asking for three years ago.
I wonder how many of those now supporting No Deal have considered the cost/benefit and risks/rewards of that compared to May's deal.
The backstop is not.
The backstop is there because we are in control of part of Ireland and the Irish Government, based on nearly a millennium of experience and millions of deaths, don’t trust our government to preserve the status quo that allowed them to persuade their people to ratify a peace treaty. Those chickens are coming home to roost.
You were not here for the troubles. You were the other side of the world. You can’t blithly moan about an administrative arrangement like the backstop when lives are at stake. You have not experienced it.
Your protestations that the backstop is some sort of imperial oppression by the EU just shows how privileged you are never to have suffered the real thing. The world isn’t split into oppressors and oppressed. The backstop is there because we are not trusted, rightly, by the Irish Government to keep our word. God knows the Irish people have enough history of that happening.
The backstop is a minor inconvenience to pay for the fact we created a mess in Ireland we never sorted out. We, in that conflict, were not the good guys. Germany suffered reparations and occupation as a result of their not being the good guys in those conflicts. We should suck this one up.
So a majority of the country wants to still Leave the EU Deal or No Deal is Boris' policy, only 43% want to Revoke and Remain
You really are making yourself look silly. More Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf stuff. There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
You are the one who is delusional. There is no mandate for anything other than Leaving. That is why we are in this multiple way split.
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
MPs should act in a way that represents the best interests of their constituents, the referendum does not remove that requirement on how to act. They should stick to their conscience and do what Erskine May tells them is their duty, even if it means losing their seat.
MPs who are saying that leaving without a deal is apocalyptic but then voted against the deal haven't done that. And that is hundreds of MPs.
Leaving the EU is not good for the best interests of their constituents.
Such was the claim before the referendum. That claim was rejected.
The mandate of the MPs in the current Parliament postdates the referendum. Few, if any, MPs stood on a platform of no-deal in 2017. You can’t cherrypick your mandates. Then again, as an Australian, this shitstorm doesn’t effect you anyway.
UKIP were the only party to campaign on no deal and got less than 2% of the vote. That shows there is no mandate for no deal and it will not pass parliament.
Mr. B2, a lot of that was down to May. Her own rhetoric (long since rowed back on but banged on about repeatedly at the time) about no deal being better than a bad deal meant she had to sell the deal as good.
And her salesmanship skills were not exactly fantastic.
That said, Remain type MPs wittering about a no deal bear significant responsibility, and I don't buy the argument that because the ERG said no, others had to. That's an abdication of responsibility.
I'd have more respect for Remainers (in the Commons) if they either backed the deal or went for a second referendum/revocation, but just opposing everything and complaining achieves nothing.
May's deal IS the backstop ! The rest is transition to some unknown end state but we can't transist without supplanting the backstop. The backstop is a de facto customs union (And SM for NI), in practice it's a very soft Brexit but has been turned into either a "Tory hard Brexit" or "remaining" by opponents depending on which side of the argument they're on. It's neither - it's out politically but at a low economic cost.
I've managed to talk both remainers and leavers round to it, but I don't have a couple of hours to chat to everyone in the country about its merits
This was bound to be next stage. All the chaos and economic meltdown will be Brussels fault.
Very depressing.
But in a sense just develops the existing myth: that everything that is wrong generally with UK in people's eyes is down to Brussels.
It’s not a Brussels point really, though. All of politics is blaming somebody else and allowing your own supporters to pass unscathed. For the Conservatives, it’s Europe. For the present incarnation of the SWP/Labour party it’s the rich (and equally ambiguous term). In both cases it’s about blame, finding the enemy and excusing your own failings.
The way the Dem debates have been organised is ridiculous, with most of the main candidates being in the 2nd one. Hopefully they'll learn to use a seeding system next time.
May's deal IS the backstop ! The rest is transition to some unknown end state but we can't transist without supplanting the backstop. The backstop is a de facto customs union (And SM for NI), in practice it's a very soft Brexit but has been turned into either a "Tory hard Brexit" or "remaining" by opponents depending on which side of the argument they're on. It's neither - it's out politically but at a low economic cost.
I've managed to talk both remainers and leavers round to it, but I don't have a couple of hours to chat to everyone in the country about its merits
It doesnt define the flavour of brexit, either hard or soft could be chosen at the next stage following the WA. It is ridiculous that people who have spent 30 years telling us we must leave the EU cannot accept a couple of years transition that is less in the EU than we are now.
The way the Dem debates have been organised is ridiculous, with most of the main candidates being in the 2nd one. Hopefully they'll learn to use a seeding system next time.
Warren is fortunate hers is first up. Second with no seeds would have been really bad. As is I think it's neutralish.
Comments
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1143782018733486080?s=20
This would give the new prime minister well over a month with no danger of confidence votes; six weeks in which to shore up support from the DUP and his own backbenchers and for exploratory talks with the EU.
There is no mandate for no deal. Boris Johnson and his apologists are putting the final nails in the coffin of Tory economic competence, and it is all about his ego. I don't think he cares how long he is PM. Just so he can say he was, like a boy scout sowing on a badge of honour. Pathetic.
http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/W30447/2019/06/26/advanced
The 13% who back a soft Brexit are key to a majority but they still back Brexit.
While 81% of Remainers back Revoke and Remain 59% of Leavers back No Deal Brexit as the country polarised, with 73% of Leavers backing Leaving with No Deal or May's Deal
Although didn't Hodges say exactly the same thing every day for five years when Ed Miliband was leader?
How would things be if we'd voted 52% Remain?
In the short term, they'd almost certainly be calmer. Cameron would be PM. But would Farage be leading UKIP towards become the Official Opposition?
How would things progress over the years?
Certainly, the political class has handled the vote to Leave poorly (one might argue the toss about what option is best/least worst, but a majority in Parliament opposing every option helps no-one).
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=22&LAB=20&LIB=19&Brexit=22&Green=10&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Corbyn is charismatic. The tragedy is that Corbyn also brought with him some people with 30 years of baggage and bitterness, sometimes motivated more by defeating Blairites than winning power.
That is the Boris policy
A government has not been in this kind of crisis and shambles in my lifetime. The Opposition should be 20 points clear at least.
If Boris leaves the EU with a deal I don't think he has a problem - the issue is that he's committed to a date that makes No Deal almost inevitable... And that is likely to result in him being a very short term PM..
ETA: hold on, isn't that near chez Carrie and Boris?
There is no mandate for Remain, none for a 2nd referendum, none for May's deal. The only mandate is for leaving and thanks to Remain MPs like Grieve the deal died.
The only mandated idea is that we must leave and the most popular form of leave is now no deal. If it happens you can thank Grieve etc for facilitating it.
That is the problem for the government. If project fear is even half right, then voters will either blame HMG for Brexit or for their economic policies, but they will blame the government.
It is
43% Revoke and Remain
28% No Deal
16% BINO - Remain in the Customs Union
13% May’s Deal
So it’s 59% would like to revoke or BINO
If the MPs opposed to No Deal had backed it, it would have passed.
Labour haven’t been in power since.
Perhaps Boris and Carrie will make an appearance there, that'd be fun.
At some point the government will have to do 'x'.
And find that a majority of the population wanted 'not x'.
(and a bunch more wanted 'x' to turn out differently)
Betting PostF1: markets for Austria are up. Bottas is 4 for the win. I've backed that each way (essentially, green if he wins, flat if he's 2nd). He's been driving well for most of this year, bit iffy last time out possibly due to tyres, but in 2018 outqualified Hamilton for pole.
There 's also a special worth considering.
Mercedes double top 4 finish, Verstappen top 6 finish, and Racing Point and Williams double classified finish. That's 3.25. A lot of contingencies but there's been a very high rate of every one of them occurring so far this season. Might be worth a look.
Anyway, I like the Bottas bet. The special's a bit more of a maybe for me.
A lot of people who lose their jobs will blame Brexit (and from that the Tory party) even if it had nothing to do with Brexit...
Equally any issue regarding anything will be Brexit and so the Tory's fault...
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1143782016841932801
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1143782018733486080
Boris only backs No Deal as a last resort to avoid revoke
And preferred outcome isn't the same thing as desired outcome....
For instance I would prefer Revoke now but would accept May's Deal..
50% of voters back a FTA, 35% back a Norway style soft Brexit and 32% back No Deal hard Brexit
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-
Without freedom of Movement
A 5 year old wants Ice Cream and Milky way stars for every meal - that doesn't mean they get it.
Furthermore the ERG have said all along that they were and are prepared to leave without a deal. So rejecting the deal makes sense if that is your alternative. For those who say that No Deal is the worst thing imaginable rejecting the deal makes no sense.
It helps, to avoid looking like a retarded zealot, to read posts before you reply.
We can argue this for as long as you want as the ERG (who were elected with May as leader) don't support the deal no-one else has to..
That is because May's deal IS Hard Brexit.
And it will certainly be a harder Brexit than many of those now supporting No Deal were asking for three years ago.
I wonder how many of those now supporting No Deal have considered the cost/benefit and risks/rewards of that compared to May's deal.
She is another who is very much liked by the Democratic electorate, and it is not inconceivable her campaign could take off.
In any event, this week will provide an inflection point in the race.
And lost again.
The deal failed because there were over 200 MPs who were elected on a manifesto pledging to leave the EU who claim that No Deal is unthinkable but rejected the deal. If we get out on no deal then the MPs who voted against the deal should look in the mirror before blaming others.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/06/26/asia-pacific/one-third-americans-back-nuclear-strike-north-korea-even-killed-million-civilians-survey-shows/
Over one-third of Americans would back a preventive attack by the U.S. on North Korea — including one using nuclear weapons — despite knowing it would kill some 1 million civilians, an innovative new survey has found.
According to the survey, published Monday by The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in collaboration with U.K.-based research firm YouGov, one of the most “disconcerting” findings was that “a large hawkish minority lurks within the U.S. public; over a third of respondents approve of a U.S. preventive strike across the scenarios and appear insensitive to informational cues that most security experts would expect to reduce such levels of support.”
Surprisingly, the researchers found, little changed when the scenarios were switched from a conventional to a nuclear attack. Rather, it said, “33 percent preferred a preventive nuclear first-strike.”
“Even more disturbing: There is no significant change in the percentage who would prefer or approve of a U.S. nuclear strike when the number of estimated North Korean fatalities increases from 15,000 to 1.1 million, including 1 million civilians,” the researchers behind the survey wrote....
Its meaningless to the average person's life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Cwyq3XWeHE
Oh, wait, never mind.
https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1143790195441098752
Also although there's some ideological alignment between Warren and Sanders, there's a lot of friction between the two tribes, so I'm not sure the one would hand their delegates over to the other, and if they did it's not clear that the delegates would follow.
We are heading for a perfect storm with a ludicrous electoral system that only gives a realistic choice of the same 2 parties year in year out both of which have been captured by an extreme and unrepresentative membership.
You only have to look at how the political landscape has changed in recent years European countries that have PR whilst we remain forever stuck in a Labour-Tory time-warp. iI'll be sitting it out again and for the rest of my life at this rate.
The two main parties are like a pair of old drunks being held upright by the electoral system.
NI is a poor part of the country, it needs boosts to its economy. A windfall is being offered. Whilst there may be a democratic deficit, NI is more than used to that, their assembly does not even sit anymore. The economic boost would be far more helpful to people in the NI than the political cost.
Very depressing.
But in a sense just develops the existing myth: that everything that is wrong generally with UK in people's eyes is down to Brussels.
You were not here for the troubles. You were the other side of the world. You can’t blithly moan about an administrative arrangement like the backstop when lives are at stake. You have not experienced it.
Your protestations that the backstop is some sort of imperial oppression by the EU just shows how privileged you are never to have suffered the real thing. The world isn’t split into oppressors and oppressed. The backstop is there because we are not trusted, rightly, by the Irish Government to keep our word. God knows the Irish people have enough history of that happening.
The backstop is a minor inconvenience to pay for the fact we created a mess in Ireland we never sorted out. We, in that conflict, were not the good guys. Germany suffered reparations and occupation as a result of their not being the good guys in those conflicts. We should suck this one up.
And her salesmanship skills were not exactly fantastic.
That said, Remain type MPs wittering about a no deal bear significant responsibility, and I don't buy the argument that because the ERG said no, others had to. That's an abdication of responsibility.
I'd have more respect for Remainers (in the Commons) if they either backed the deal or went for a second referendum/revocation, but just opposing everything and complaining achieves nothing.
I've managed to talk both remainers and leavers round to it, but I don't have a couple of hours to chat to everyone in the country about its merits