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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight the fight for the WH2020 Democratic nomination moves to the debate stage with Biden leading in the betting followed by Warren
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
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I'm hoping Biden will fall away as we get closer but his support has been pretty solid so far.
It's a layers market right now
PB perceived wisdom:
1) May's Brexit deal will pass eventually.
2) Boris Johnson won't get to a membership ballot because conservative MP's will block him.
3) Joe Biden won't be the democratic nominee, because he ripped a speech from Neil Kinnock 30 years ago.
On this form I'd be backing Biden!
But it's definitely helpful to Biden that for each of his flaws, Trump has the same flaw but worse.
In other matters, looks like Paisley is in trouble again
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48763922
That trip to the Maldives just keeps on causing him issues.
On speeches, something Mayor Pete said on one video put me in mind of Gordon Brown, though it is perhaps more likely there was a common ancestor than that Buttigieg is a particular fan of our finest prime minister in the last ten years.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/pete-buttigieg-south-bend-police-shooting-town-hall-video-2020-campaign-a8973046.html
No doubt one or more of his opponents is stirring things up but many outlets have the same story, as a quick search testifies.
From the article
_________________________________________________________________
When one person confronted him and asked, "You running for president and you expect black people to vote for you?", Buttigieg responded, "I'm not asking for your vote."
_________________________________________________________________
That was a silly response, as I'm sure he would have realised by now. He doesn't really have any Black support to lose but probably the only way he was going to be a serious contender was to improve that, the demographics of his supporters is just too limited.
The interesting thing is where his support goes if he drops. Wouldn't have them down as Biden supporters.
I'd not imagine anyone's support will transfer to Biden. The man was vice-president for eight years so surely anyone who wants to support him already does.
Secondly I'm really troubled with what this suggests about today's politics. It suggests that you should be backing a winner rather than who you think is the better candidate. It suggests that once someone has voted for party leader they won't then support the person who is elected. This is a symptom of the main parties splintering which we have seen in GB and the US.
Historically, do favourites tend to win Democrat nominations?
Like so many on here, I layed him heavily for a long time on the observation that his own MPs wouldn't support him. This was my own judgement as well as that of numerous informed pundits here and elsewhere that I have trusted before and still do. The change came with the Euro elections and the Conservative slump in the opinion polls. Boris began to appear as the only Leader likely to prevent a meltdown and a number of MPs changed their mind and decided he wouldn't perhaps be so bad after all.
I was slow to spot that and paid the usual price as punters do when they are slow to note a change in the going, but that's punting. You can't win them all.
Bill Clinton won the 1988 nomination when the favourite, Gary Hart, dropped out over the Donna Rice affair. There was a film made last year about this, The Front Runner, starring Hugh Jackman. I am holding the DVD up to the webcam.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3Rl2XZC0II
The GOP race last time had a similarly crowded field and the presumed good things failed one after another.
So in a highly contested field, lay the favourite!
Incidentally, Hart was struggling in the primaries even before he was caught after that daft challenge he issued. It's one reason why he said it.
(Edited for putting down the 1984 nominee by mistake, amusingly.)
But unfortunately it didn't happen that way.
https://twitter.com/bethrigby/status/1143758593918996480?s=21
The tactic is like joining a speculative bubble with the intention to sell to a mug at the peak. Get the timing wrong and you are the mug.
Fortunately in the POTUS market we know when the event is, less so for example a Labour Leaders contest.
I cannot see Biden going the distance, so am on Warren for Candidate, and a couple of outsiders. I wouldn't bet on her for POTUS though.
But I was online when she withdrew, so I backed the other candidates (only about 4 or so), and the same thing happened again. It was only the final withdrawal (maybe Davey) I missed.
It turns out being really lucky helps with betting.
#experttips
Here's another
Cory Booker, who is actually running and is having a small mini surge is backable at 65, the same price you can lay Hillary Clinton (Who isn't running) at.
Michelle Obama is another clear lay.
If your book is large enough size you can pick up a few more pennies laying Oprah Winfrey.
I think it might conceivably help her - particularly as it’s in most of the strugglers’ interests to take shots at Biden rather than her.
Preaching to the converted (which is what Corbyn does) is as pointless as reaching a broad audience, but having nothing interesting to say.
you should vote for him
Without exaggeration, Corbyn is currently the more conservative, pragmatic option for PM. That is a measure of how far we have come.
But you don’t have to be convinced, Mike.
The gaffes thus far have been of limited impact. He remains very popular indeed in the party, and even among those who really, truly don’t want him as the candidate, there remains a determination that they’d vote for him in a heartbeat anyway while the alternative is Trump.
Unless his electability UPS takes a significant hit, it’s not easy to see how the dynamic changes. Look at his most recent figures in the big swing states to see how high a hurdle his challengers have.
In a perverse sense, even the latest gaffe reinforces his electability pitch among his more committed supporters, as 538 points out:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-will-bidens-latest-comments-affect-his-standing-in-the-democratic-primary/
His is the overwhelming favourite for a reason. His position is very strong.... but possibly very brittle, too.
Biden - Green
Warren - Green
Buttigieg - Lay, Red (Max right now)
Sanders - Neutral
Harris - Lay, Red
Yang - Lay, Red
Beto - Neutral
Klobuchar - Neutral
Gabbard - Lay, Red
Clinton, Obama, Winfrey - Lay depending on book size to max Red
Booker - Back, green
I'd be wary of laying Joe at 9-4 personally (And I'm not). He could blow it but if the contest remains as is (Hey it might not) then he'd be 4-9 with the polling or shorter.
Having weathered the attacks which most thought had sunk her bid completely, she’d be much less vulnerable the second time round.
The tories are regressing and openly admit that they would rather destroy the uk than not Brexit, heck theyd rather do that than Brexit the wrong way. Add in that they will splurge like mad to try to buy votes to cover their incompetence if the past few years and Boris and Hunt dont look pragmatic on the least.
We will likely find out how bad Corbyn could be. But it's not hugely scary.
The problem is he doesn’t really want to reach beyond his base. He is very happy in his comfort zone and seemingly doesn’t want to reach or represent those that don’t completely agree with him.
It’s frustrating, because if he could look beyond his backyard he could be successful. He is badly advised.
He's backed himself into a corner without even realising it..
Corbyn and team proffered a range of popular policies in 2017 but lacked the credibility of a viable leader to take them over the line. As you implicitly concede, given the present polling, one more heave doesn't look likely to carry the day.
Blair was termed "Bambi" by his opponents in his early years as LotO as being a harmless vacuous vessel. The 1997 general election said different. If Labour could find a Blair for this age then their prospects would improve exponentially but you seem determined to give that brick wall another try with Corbyn.
No Change = No Chance
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/cory-booker-is-trailing-in-the-polls-but-some-democratic-activists-really-like-him/
Stores up trouble for later but like the mps hes hoping his popularity will carry him through it, if it happens before any consequences truly bite.
But that is what the Tories seem intent on doing and, arguably, what Labour has already done.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1143781632001892353
To say there is "no point in politics" if you don't have any chance of getting everything you want is ridiculous. Not least because no-one ever gets it, politics ultimately being the art of compromise.
Devolution to everywhere that isn't England, and the reneging on a manifesto pledge on a referendum helped lead us to the current situation. We would have voted against Lisbon, enabling a reassessment of the UK-EU situation.
Boris's issue is that he is almost certainly over-estimating his, and in any event intends to spend it all as soon as he gets the job.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1141780599604224000
She's weathered the attacks for now as no Dem gives a shit about the right wings press attacks on the Native American thing. So it doesn't affect the Primary.
The question is whether America's fickle centrists give a shit in the general election.
If these numbers are accurate.
Labour would be in a far happier place if Yvette Cooper had won in 2015 and I suspect most of them know it.