politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final step. Why the leader of the Conservative party does

First like Boris

One very minor minor quibble.

Where Alastair writes 'To date, no one has ever gone broke betting on the Conservative Remainers failing to follow through.'

I could argue when the crucial moment came last March Tory Remainers did follow through.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/uk-parliament-seizes-control-of-brexit-options

Bandit at 3 o'clock.

This is going to be so exciting.

Ironically, rather than following the HY playbook and trying to take office and call an election, Boris’s best chance of leading his party into a GE is if he isn’t successful in putting together a majority, and the GE follows automatically at the end of the 14 days.

https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1143187343718912002?s=20

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/johnjohnstonmi/status/1143225821278154753?s=21

“Get off my laptop!”

Interesting that in a parallel universe we would be having another Tory leadership election where Cameron was handing over to George Osborne in the run up to the 2020 general election.

The branching moment was that Milliband did not resign the Labour leadership in 2015.

Plaid pulling out of Brecon presumably ups the odds on the Lib Dems.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48742981

Any Tory MP who votes against the democratically elected leader straight away is surely ending their political career. Boles, Phillip Lee and Grieve are all under pressure from local members but would probably be kept on if the next election was imminent.

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1143187343718912002?s=20

That's fairly funny, but even very mundane legislation does get progressed during times of crisis. Not to say we are not wasting a great deal of time, but it is not inherently silly

justin124 said:

A great article as always. By my calculation the Government's majority has just fallen to four - and will be three should the Tories lose Brecon & Radnor.

And it is not as though the DUP can really be relied upon at present.

Recidivist said:

Plaid pulling out of Brecon presumably ups the odds on the Lib Dems.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48742981

But I wanted to see how desperate the Welsh were for independence because of the high polling that shows it as good as gone from the UK, according to some wet dreams.

Recidivist said:

Plaid pulling out of Brecon presumably ups the odds on the Lib Dems.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48742981

Change UK don't get any better, do they?

' "Change UK is happy to confirm that we are in talks about a joint independent Remain candidate in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election," a spokesman for the party said. '

Come off it. The Lib Dems held this seat until 2015. There is not the slightest chance that they will, or should, stand down in favour of an "independent Remain candidate". Such a banner would probably lose votes in Radnorshire, not gain them.

It's time - long past time - for Soubry's lot to give up.

El_Capitano said:

Recidivist said:

Plaid pulling out of Brecon presumably ups the odds on the Lib Dems.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48742981

Change UK don't get any better, do they?

' "Change UK is happy to confirm that we are in talks about a joint independent Remain candidate in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election," a spokesman for the party said. '

Come off it. The Lib Dems held this seat until 2015. There is not the slightest chance that they will, or should, stand down in favour of an "independent Remain candidate". Such a banner would probably lose votes in Radnorshire, not gain them.

It's time - long past time - for Soubry's lot to give up.

This is all excellent news - and a foretaste of what awaits Bottler Bozo if he finds himself in a GE. Labour is too tribalist to take part, but the LibDems, Greens, Nationalists and what is left of CUK working towards a common candidate is very good news.

It is possible Boris could become Tory leader, lose a VONC and May remains as a largely technocratic PM during a Boris v Corbyn general election until either one of them wins amajority or they or an alternative (like Starmer, Lidington or even Stewart) can cobble together enough MPs behind them after a VONC following another hung parliament

Artist said:

Any Tory MP who votes against the democratically elected leader straight away is surely ending their political career. Boles, Phillip Lee and Grieve are all under pressure from local members but would probably be kept on if the next election was imminent.

Do Boles, Lee, and Grieve (not to mention Sandbach and others) *want* to stay around with the fruitcake party?

It’s not like a backbencher earns huge amounts of money.

IanB2 said:

El_Capitano said:

Recidivist said:

Plaid pulling out of Brecon presumably ups the odds on the Lib Dems.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48742981

Change UK don't get any better, do they?

' "Change UK is happy to confirm that we are in talks about a joint independent Remain candidate in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election," a spokesman for the party said. '

Come off it. The Lib Dems held this seat until 2015. There is not the slightest chance that they will, or should, stand down in favour of an "independent Remain candidate". Such a banner would probably lose votes in Radnorshire, not gain them.

It's time - long past time - for Soubry's lot to give up.

This is all excellent news - and a foretaste of what awaits Bottler Bozo if he finds himself in a GE. Labour is too tribalist to take part, but the LibDems, Greens, Nationalists and what is left of CUK working towards a common candidate is very good news.

It’s a difficult process I remember the early days of the lib/sdp alliance when I was parliamentary spokesman for the liberals and the constituency was determined to be an SDP seat. As it happened I wasn’t too bothered as were never going to get more than second but you can see the impact when no pact results in both, or all being defeated. Liverpool Wavertree and Richmond (Yorkshire) come to mind

Gardenwalker said:

Artist said:

Any Tory MP who votes against the democratically elected leader straight away is surely ending their political career. Boles, Phillip Lee and Grieve are all under pressure from local members but would probably be kept on if the next election was imminent.

Do Boles, Lee, and Grieve (not to mention Sandbach and others) *want* to stay around with the fruitcake party?

It’s not like a backbencher earns huge amounts of money.

Boles resigned the Whip back in April.

Have we seen enough of Boris's superlative campaigning skills, and grasp of detail that will unite the nation yet or do we have 4 more weeks of the silly season to go?

Gardenwalker said:

Artist said:

Any Tory MP who votes against the democratically elected leader straight away is surely ending their political career. Boles, Phillip Lee and Grieve are all under pressure from local members but would probably be kept on if the next election was imminent.

Do Boles, Lee, and Grieve (not to mention Sandbach and others) *want* to stay around with the fruitcake party?

It’s not like a backbencher earns huge amounts of money.

A backbench MP earns £79468 per annum, plus expenses. Perhaps not a "huge" amount of money to some, but certainly not insignificant...

Excellent analysis as always. Boris faces these obstacles in order: he may bottle out before the contest with Hunt is complete; he may lose to Hunt; he may by the time he is leader have so many Tories indicating they would not support him that TM could not constitutionally request HM the Queen to ask him to form a government; he may lose support of DUP; he may only survive days before losing a VONC; he may call a quick election and lose.

My best guess is that if he becomes PM his only recourse is to call a Brexit election asap and take his chance before a VONC is called on him. Thus he keeps such initiative as is possible - which is not much.

Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.

As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.

Gardenwalker said:

Artist said:

Any Tory MP who votes against the democratically elected leader straight away is surely ending their political career. Boles, Phillip Lee and Grieve are all under pressure from local members but would probably be kept on if the next election was imminent.

Do Boles, Lee, and Grieve (not to mention Sandbach and others) *want* to stay around with the fruitcake party?

It’s not like a backbencher earns huge amounts of money.

It means ending friendships as well as one's career. That's a tall order.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1143213707532677122

Big_G_NorthWales said:

algarkirk said:

Excellent analysis as always. Boris faces these obstacles in order: he may bottle out before the contest with Hunt is complete; he may lose to Hunt; he may by the time he is leader have so many Tories indicating they would not support him that TM could not constitutionally request HM the Queen to ask him to form a government; he may lose support of DUP; he may only survive days before losing a VONC; he may call a quick election and lose.

My best guess is that if he becomes PM his only recourse is to call a Brexit election asap and take his chance before a VONC is called on him. Thus he keeps such initiative as is possible - which is not much.

Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.

As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.

One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays

Seems unlikely but who knows

I have to say I am coming around to this view, even though I have been banging on about Boris not becoming PM for several weeks now.

Let no man stand between an MP and his August holiday!

By now bookings will have been made. Spouse and kids excited etc etc.

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

It is possible Boris could become Tory leader, lose a VONC and May remains as a largely technocratic PM during a Boris v Corbyn general election until either one of them wins amajority or they or an alternative (like Starmer, Lidington or even Stewart) can cobble together enough MPs behind them after a VONC following another hung parliament

Boris can't lose a confidence vote until he is prime minister.

He could become PM for a day or two, then lose a VONC then we go to a late summer/early autumn general election.

May even be for the best, let voters decide if they still want Brexit Deal or No Deal with a Boris majority or BINO, EUref2 or even revoke with a Corbyn minority government

When is the latest a government can be brought down with a VONC where the GE would have to be held before 31 October deadline? That is crucial. Whether a government would crazy enough to simply sit on their hands and allow a no deal during a GE campaign I'm unsure, but in theory they wouldn't have to request an extension would they?

rottenborough said:

Not heard this boring technical detail before:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1143220789237489665

25 July clashes with the Royal Welsh Show. The council may prefer the following week.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

algarkirk said:

Excellent analysis as always. Boris faces these obstacles in order: he may bottle out before the contest with Hunt is complete; he may lose to Hunt; he may by the time he is leader have so many Tories indicating they would not support him that TM could not constitutionally request HM the Queen to ask him to form a government; he may lose support of DUP; he may only survive days before losing a VONC; he may call a quick election and lose.

My best guess is that if he becomes PM his only recourse is to call a Brexit election asap and take his chance before a VONC is called on him. Thus he keeps such initiative as is possible - which is not much.

Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.

As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.

One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays

Seems unlikely but who knows

The debate about August GE being unacceptable as it’s the holiday season is outdated.
Many pensioners go to warmer climes for the winter.
Most people without children will go June July September October because it’s cheaper.
Half term is holiday season as can be seen by price hikes
People go away at Easter
So there really is apart from MPs themselves not that many who are rigidly tied into August. It’s not as if it’s frequently too hot to campaign, the Spanish had a GE a week before Christmas so time to ditch this fallacy that August is a no no.

algarkirk said:

Excellent analysis as always. Boris faces these obstacles in order: he may bottle out before the contest with Hunt is complete; he may lose to Hunt; he may by the time he is leader have so many Tories indicating they would not support him that TM could not constitutionally request HM the Queen to ask him to form a government; he may lose support of DUP; he may only survive days before losing a VONC; he may call a quick election and lose.

My best guess is that if he becomes PM his only recourse is to call a Brexit election asap and take his chance before a VONC is called on him. Thus he keeps such initiative as is possible - which is not much.

Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.

As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.

If TM tried to put ken Clarke in as PM there would be riots. And the brexit party would win a landslide at the general election . The tories would lose all their activists to the bxp . Nigel Farage would become PM . And a huge proportion of Tory MPs would defect to the brexit party and force the fall of the government

nichomar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Not heard this boring technical detail before:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1143220789237489665

25 July clashes with the Royal Welsh Show. The council may prefer the following week.

Fair enough

When most everyone is away on holiday apart from the elderly

@AlastairMeeks re your post on the last thread, my problem with opinion polls is that they over state the view of the politically engaged, particularly when there is no election forthcoming. When there is an election forthcoming, and when the electorate is politically engaged, I reckon they should be accurate

I tried to make the point here, although used the wrong example with the YouGov as they WERE filtering out the politically engaged, and were also stunningly accurate

http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/2017/05/the-problem-with-opinion-polls-polls.html

This came from an apolitical friend.

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

algarkirk said:

Excellent analysis as always. Boris faces these obstacles in order: he may bottle out before the contest with Hunt is complete; he may lose to Hunt; he may by the time he is leader have so many Tories indicating they would not support him that TM could not constitutionally request HM the Queen to ask him to form a government; he may lose support of DUP; he may only survive days before losing a VONC; he may call a quick election and lose.

My best guess is that if he becomes PM his only recourse is to call a Brexit election asap and take his chance before a VONC is called on him. Thus he keeps such initiative as is possible - which is not much.

Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.

As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.

One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays

Seems unlikely but who knows

The debate about August GE being unacceptable as it’s the holiday season is outdated.
Many pensioners go to warmer climes for the winter.
Most people without children will go June July September October because it’s cheaper.
Half term is holiday season as can be seen by price hikes
People go away at Easter
So there really is apart from MPs themselves not that many who are rigidly tied into August. It’s not as if it’s frequently too hot to campaign, the Spanish had a GE a week before Christmas so time to ditch this fallacy that August is a no no.

Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August

Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance

YBarddCwsc said:

Foxy said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Recidivist said:

Plaid pulling out of Brecon presumably ups the odds on the Lib Dems.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48742981

Except, it doesn't say that.

It says Plaid Cymru are in talks to field a joint Remain candidate, and they want something in return.

(I suspect the LibDems think they have no need to grant anything in return, so it will come to nothing).

Presumably a reciprocal stand down in a PC Westminster target seat.

Presumably, but that may not be quite so easy to arrange at short notice.

Adam Price clearly says he wants something in return.

(I am not entirely sure that the Plaid Cymru and LibDems voters are quite so willing to be parcelled up as gifts by their leaders).

Oh, I agree that there is always some shrinkage when people cannot vote for their preferred party. Voters cannot be shifted about without consequence.

rottenborough said:

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

algarkirk said:

Excellent analysis as always. Boris faces these obstacles in order: he may bottle out before the contest with Hunt is complete; he may lose to Hunt; he may by the time he is leader have so many Tories indicating they would not support him that TM could not constitutionally request HM the Queen to ask him to form a government; he may lose support of DUP; he may only survive days before losing a VONC; he may call a quick election and lose.

My best guess is that if he becomes PM his only recourse is to call a Brexit election asap and take his chance before a VONC is called on him. Thus he keeps such initiative as is possible - which is not much.

Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.

As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.

One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays

Seems unlikely but who knows

The debate about August GE being unacceptable as it’s the holiday season is outdated.
Many pensioners go to warmer climes for the winter.
Most people without children will go June July September October because it’s cheaper.
Half term is holiday season as can be seen by price hikes
People go away at Easter
So there really is apart from MPs themselves not that many who are rigidly tied into August. It’s not as if it’s frequently too hot to campaign, the Spanish had a GE a week before Christmas so time to ditch this fallacy that August is a no no.

I think the argument falls down on "apart from MPs themselves"....

I know, most people have had to alter holiday plans due to professional or family circumstances, the rather strange thing is we apparently have until 31 October to solve our brexit position but we have wasted June July on a leadership election, we can’t cancel our holidays so that’s August gone and we can’t cancel the party annual binge (sorry conference) and then we are going to have a GE in October does anybody wonder why we are regarded as a joke?

nico67 said:

rottenborough said:

Bloody hell. Boris has left the bunker:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1143228556752949248

Will she actually ask him questions on his Brexit policy or will this be one long yawn about his private life .

I will wait with eager anticipation to the post- broadcast PB analysis. Much better than wasting several precious minutes of one's life watching him in person.

nichomar said:

rottenborough said:

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

algarkirk said:

Excellent analysis as always. Boris faces these obstacles in order: he may bottle out before the contest with Hunt is complete; he may lose to Hunt; he may by the time he is leader have so many Tories indicating they would not support him that TM could not constitutionally request HM the Queen to ask him to form a government; he may lose support of DUP; he may only survive days before losing a VONC; he may call a quick election and lose.

My best guess is that if he becomes PM his only recourse is to call a Brexit election asap and take his chance before a VONC is called on him. Thus he keeps such initiative as is possible - which is not much.

Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.

As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.

One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays

Seems unlikely but who knows

The debate about August GE being unacceptable as it’s the holiday season is outdated.
Many pensioners go to warmer climes for the winter.
Most people without children will go June July September October because it’s cheaper.
Half term is holiday season as can be seen by price hikes
People go away at Easter
So there really is apart from MPs themselves not that many who are rigidly tied into August. It’s not as if it’s frequently too hot to campaign, the Spanish had a GE a week before Christmas so time to ditch this fallacy that August is a no no.

I think the argument falls down on "apart from MPs themselves"....

I know, most people have had to alter holiday plans due to professional or family circumstances, the rather strange thing is we apparently have until 31 October to solve our brexit position but we have wasted June July on a leadership election, we can’t cancel our holidays so that’s August gone and we can’t cancel the party annual binge (sorry conference) and then we are going to have a GE in October does anybody wonder why we are regarded as a joke?

As the EU said: "please don't waste this time"

AlastairMeeks said:

rottenborough said:

Can anyone explain why Grove is 200/1 to be next leader but every other beaten candidate is 1000?

Do some BF punters think the 1922 would put Grove as leader if both Bozza and Hunt dropped out?

I think the idea is that if Boris drops out, Michael Gove will be substituted in as Jeremy Hunt’s opponent.

Can they legally do that? Last time May was coronated when Leadsom dropped.

Re the LBJ quote.

I found no evidence of him ever saying the first rule of politics is being able to count, and every source that mentions the quote seems to be British.

The last time I investigated this I came away with the suspicion it's a misquote/misattribution, potentially mentioned in the context of George Osborne who is a well know LBJ fan, which British political journalists have found very handy in the context of tight parliamentary arithmetic and therefore have kept recirculating.

It is a great "rule" and it would be good if someone could figure out where it originated so that its creator can receive appropriate credit in future! But I really don't think it is LBJ.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nichomar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Not heard this boring technical detail before:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1143220789237489665

25 July clashes with the Royal Welsh Show. The council may prefer the following week.

Fair enough

When most everyone is away on holiday apart from the elderly

A slight exaggeration. Poor people will not be on holiday, they may not be able to afford one.

YBarddCwsc said:

Recidivist said:

Plaid pulling out of Brecon presumably ups the odds on the Lib Dems.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48742981

Except, it doesn't say that.

It says Plaid Cymru are in talks to field a joint Remain candidate, and they want something in return.

(I suspect the LibDems think they have no need to grant anything in return, so it will come to nothing).

Good point.

rottenborough said:

Labour utterly split. Let's hope a manifesto doesn't need to be written in next couple of months...

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1143234837697839104

McCluskey really is a revolting man! Absolutely vile, and stupid too!

MyBurningEars said:

Re the LBJ quote.

I found no evidence of him ever saying the first rule of politics is being able to count, and every source that mentions the quote seems to be British.

The last time I investigated this I came away with the suspicion it's a misquote/misattribution, potentially mentioned in the context of George Osborne who is a well know LBJ fan, which British political journalists have found very handy in the context of tight parliamentary arithmetic and therefore have kept recirculating.

It is a great "rule" and it would be good if someone could figure out where it originated so that its creator can receive appropriate credit in future! But I really don't think it is LBJ.

If you have time you can check to see in the Robert Caro biog of LBJ. Only 3,000 pages so far and we are barely on presidency.

nichomar said:

rottenborough said:

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

algarkirk said:

E

My best guess is that if he becomes PM his only recourse is to call a Brexit election asap and take his chance before a VONC is called on him. Thus he keeps such initiative as is possible - which is not much.

Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.

As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.

One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays

Seems unlikely but who knows

The debate about August GE being unacceptable as it’s the holiday season is outdated.
Many pensioners go to warmer climes for the winter.
Most people without children will go June July September October because it’s cheaper.
Half term is holiday season as can be seen by price hikes
People go away at Easter
So there really is apart from MPs themselves not that many who are rigidly tied into August. It’s not as if it’s frequently too hot to campaign, the Spanish had a GE a week before Christmas so time to ditch this fallacy that August is a no no.

I think the argument falls down on "apart from MPs themselves"....

I know, most people have had to alter holiday plans due to professional or family circumstances, the rather strange thing is we apparently have until 31 October to solve our brexit position but we have wasted June July on a leadership election, we can’t cancel our holidays so that’s August gone and we can’t cancel the party annual binge (sorry conference) and then we are going to have a GE in October does anybody wonder why we are regarded as a joke?

I don't wonder about it, I just don't think it matters in the long term. Ultimately a decision will have to be made, and whatever the relationship we end up having with the EU the realities of politics will dictate how things then progress - that our politicians have wasted and will continue to waste the extension time that was offered will be neither here nor there.

MyBurningEars said:

Re the LBJ quote.

I found no evidence of him ever saying the first rule of politics is being able to count, and every source that mentions the quote seems to be British.

The last time I investigated this I came away with the suspicion it's a misquote/misattribution, potentially mentioned in the context of George Osborne who is a well know LBJ fan, which British political journalists have found very handy in the context of tight parliamentary arithmetic and therefore have kept recirculating.

It is a great "rule" and it would be good if someone could figure out where it originated so that its creator can receive appropriate credit in future! But I really don't think it is LBJ.

It was from Robert Caro who wrote the series of books on LBJ.

IIRC the quote was made said by LBJ when he was Senate majority leader.

YBarddCwsc said:

Torby_Fennel said:

Foxy said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Foxy said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Recidivist said:

Plaid pulling out of Brecon presumably ups the odds on the Lib Dems.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48742981

Except, it doesn't say that.

It says Plaid Cymru are in talks to field a joint Remain candidate, and they want something in return.

(I suspect the LibDems think they have no need to grant anything in return, so it will come to nothing).

Presumably a reciprocal stand down in a PC Westminster target seat.

Presumably, but that may not be quite so easy to arrange at short notice.

Adam Price clearly says he wants something in return.

(I am not entirely sure that the Plaid Cymru and LibDems voters are quite so willing to be parcelled up as gifts by their leaders).

Oh, I agree that there is always some shrinkage when people cannot vote for their preferred party. Voters cannot be shifted about without consequence.

Not all members can be parcelled either. If I lived in a constituency where there wasn't a Lib Dem candidate, due to a pact, I'd not vote. I didn't join the Lib Dems to help other parties with which I have very little common ground. I'm happy to work with others after an election but I standing aside for another party takes choice away from voters.

Absolutely.

I regularly vote Plaid Cymru, and nothing would make me vote for Jane Dodds in B&R.

What is wrong with Jane Dodds? The political gene pool in Wales is currently pretty shallow and she strikes me as being no more useless than the rest of them.

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

algarkirk said:

Excellent analysis as always. Boris faces these obstacles in order: he may bottle out before the contest with Hunt is complete; he may lose to Hunt; he may by the time he is leader have so many Tories indicating they would not support him that TM could not constitutionally request HM the Queen to ask him to form a government; he may lose support of DUP; he may only survive days before losing a VONC; he may call a quick election and lose.

My best guess is that if he becomes PM his only recourse is to call a Brexit election asap and take his chance before a VONC is called on him. Thus he keeps such initiative as is possible - which is not much.

Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.

As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.

One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays

Seems unlikely but who knows

The debate about August GE being unacceptable as it’s the holiday season is outdated.
Many pensioners go to warmer climes for the winter.
Most people without children will go June July September October because it’s cheaper.
Half term is holiday season as can be seen by price hikes
People go away at Easter
So there really is apart from MPs themselves not that many who are rigidly tied into August. It’s not as if it’s frequently too hot to campaign, the Spanish had a GE a week before Christmas so time to ditch this fallacy that August is a no no.

Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August

Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance

Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.

Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote

Campaigning in August would be a nonsense

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

algarkirk said:

Excellent analysis as always. Boris faces these obstacles in order: he may bottle out before the contest with Hunt is complete; he may lose to Hunt; he may by the time he is leader have so many Tories indicating they would not support him that TM could not constitutionally request HM the Queen to ask him to form a government; he may lose support of DUP; he may only survive days before losing a VONC; he may call a quick election and lose.

My best guess is that if he becomes PM his only recourse is to call a Brexit election asap and take his chance before a VONC is called on him. Thus he keeps such initiative as is possible - which is not much.

Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.

As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.

One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays

Seems unlikely but who knows

The debate about August GE being unacceptable as it’s the holiday season is outdated.
Many pensioners go to warmer climes for the winter.
Most people without children will go June July September October because it’s cheaper.
Half term is holiday season as can be seen by price hikes
People go away at Easter
So there really is apart from MPs themselves not that many who are rigidly tied into August. It’s not as if it’s frequently too hot to campaign, the Spanish had a GE a week before Christmas so time to ditch this fallacy that August is a no no.

Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August

Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance

Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.

Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote

Campaigning in August would be a nonsense

I think Boris will be PM, I cannot see a VONC the next day myself.

TOPPING said:

OK if Hunt wins does that also mean a GE?

No, but the drinks are on me at the next PB do. I am on at 100/1

As an LD Remainer I would rather Boris, as best placed to destroy Brexit, but a book is a book!