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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Team Boris thought thought Hunt would be a pushover then this afternoon should disabuse them
The story during the final part of the MP balloting for the CON leadership was that Team Boris was working at ways to have their man fight Hunt in the membership part of the selection rather than Michael Gove.
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First! Like Boris, regrettably0
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this is going to be a more interesting fight than we anticipated
Yes. Coronation postponed.
I'm not sure more exposure will do the mendacious lazy adulterous charlatan Boris more good0 -
FPT:
Reminding them does no harm.Foxy said:Who didn't know that he is a spoilt brat who cares little for other people, and has a history of failed relationships?
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Dittography in the headline.0
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You’re not a fan, then ?CarlottaVance said:FPT:
Reminding them does no harm.Foxy said:Who didn't know that he is a spoilt brat who cares little for other people, and has a history of failed relationships?
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HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority. What i don't get then is the assumption that nodeal Brexit will then happen. I can't believe that every Tory MP will sign up to this. Will Jo Johnson, for example, vote for this? And if the Tories have a majority they (and Johnson) will surely prefer to bank this and try and deliver a sensible Brexit using the majority, rather than unnecessarily crashing out with nodeal.0
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Boris strikes me as in the throes of a mid-life crisis. A man who has spent a couple of decades trying to reach the top, then finding it turn to ashes in his mouth and desperate to try to hang on to his youth.
He has missed out on the sports car, but losing a few stone, getting some sharper clothes and a abandoning his wife for a fickle younger woman. I wonder what sort of tattoo he has picked out...1 -
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....0 -
Bozo must be mighty relieved that he doesn't have an ex-wife who he cheated on multiple times just waiting to stick the knife in.....1
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“Who made his man Foreign secretary?”CarlottaVance said:The Sun....totally behind Boris....
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142502515960946691
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Yes, but suspend your disbelief on this minor point..CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
Would a Tory Party with a working majority really pursue crash out no deal Brexit when they've got a guaranteed 5 years in power?0 -
WI manage to blow a commanding position in the space of two overs.0
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When David Blunkett was having rather well publicised difficulties with his relationships, his first wife honourably refused to comment, despite being offered tabloid money. I rather admired her for it.SandyRentool said:Bozo must be mighty relieved that he doesn't have an ex-wife who he cheated on multiple times just waiting to stick the knife in.....
When Chris Huhne ran into marital problems, his wife was perhaps rather too keen to comment to the press.
I am not sure Vicky Pryce made the right call.
Perhaps a marriage has broken down, but you normally want to have a relationship with your ex-partner (especially as in Marina's case, there are children to consider as well).0 -
A big heart with BJ loves BJ in the centre. Could be read in 2 different ways of course.Foxy said:Boris strikes me as in the throes of a mid-life crisis. A man who has spent a couple of decades trying to reach the top, then finding it turn to ashes in his mouth and desperate to try to hang on to his youth.
He has missed out on the sports car, but losing a few stone, getting some sharper clothes and a abandoning his wife for a fickle younger woman. I wonder what sort of tattoo he has picked out...0 -
A Tory Party with a working majority is a hell of an assumption....alex. said:
Yes, but suspend your disbelief on this minor point..CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
Would a Tory Party with a working majority really pursue crash out no deal Brexit when they've got a guaranteed 5 years in power?0 -
May well be, but it's HYUFD's plan for how Johnson delivers his Brexit promise.eek said:
A Tory Party with a working majority is a hell of an assumption....alex. said:
Yes, but suspend your disbelief on this minor point..CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
Would a Tory Party with a working majority really pursue crash out no deal Brexit when they've got a guaranteed 5 years in power?0 -
One can take positions on other people’s personal relationships, and it does provide character evidence.YBarddCwsc said:
When David Blunkett was having rather well publicised difficulties with his relationships, his first wife honourably refused to comment, despite being offered tabloid money. I rather admired her for it.SandyRentool said:Bozo must be mighty relieved that he doesn't have an ex-wife who he cheated on multiple times just waiting to stick the knife in.....
When Chris Huhne ran into marital problems, his wife was perhaps rather too keen to comment to the press.
I am not sure Vicky Pryce made the right call.
Perhaps a marriage has broken down, but you normally want to have a relationship with your ex-partner (especially as in Marina's case, there are children to consider as well).
But unless they’re in a position of significant influence, who cares ?
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Yes. The real polling, as opposed to the hypothetical, whilst swinging wildly, has been consistent on one thing since the last GE. That there will be another hung Parliament.eek said:
A Tory Party with a working majority is a hell of an assumption....alex. said:
Yes, but suspend your disbelief on this minor point..CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
Would a Tory Party with a working majority really pursue crash out no deal Brexit when they've got a guaranteed 5 years in power?
Worth noting also. THREE different parties have led the national polling since the Tories last did.0 -
In some ways it is good that Hunt will put Boris through his paces, as Brown and May found out not having to make your case against an able opponent to the membership does not help you when you get the job or in a future general election campaign0
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If you had actually bothered to read a word I wrote on the last thread which again clearly you have not, you would have read I said the Sun would likely stay neutral in the leadership race but endorse the Tories whichever of Boris or Hunt wins provided they deliver Brexit. If they do not and extend again the Sun may even endorse Farage and the Brexit PartyCarlottaVance said:The Sun....totally behind Boris....
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/11425025159609466910 -
I am pointing out that Marina may not want to involve herself by publicly commenting.Nigelb said:
One can take positions on other people’s personal relationships, and it does provide character evidence.YBarddCwsc said:
When David Blunkett was having rather well publicised difficulties with his relationships, his first wife honourably refused to comment, despite being offered tabloid money. I rather admired her for it.SandyRentool said:Bozo must be mighty relieved that he doesn't have an ex-wife who he cheated on multiple times just waiting to stick the knife in.....
When Chris Huhne ran into marital problems, his wife was perhaps rather too keen to comment to the press.
I am not sure Vicky Pryce made the right call.
Perhaps a marriage has broken down, but you normally want to have a relationship with your ex-partner (especially as in Marina's case, there are children to consider as well).
But unless they’re in a position of significant influence, who cares ?
(Huhne and Blunkett were in positions of significant influence when their ex-wives were invited to comment).0 -
Wonder when Boris proxys will go negative on Hunt....0
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Trump did too, did not stop himSandyRentool said:Bozo must be mighty relieved that he doesn't have an ex-wife who he cheated on multiple times just waiting to stick the knife in.....
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Do you have contacts on the Sun's editorial board?HYUFD said:
If you had actually bothered to read a word I wrote on the last thread which again clearly you have not, you would have read I said the Sun would likely stay neutral in the leadership race but endorse the Tories whichever of Boris or Hunt wins provided they deliver Brexit. If they do not and extend again the Sun may even endorse Farage and the Brexit PartyCarlottaVance said:The Sun....totally behind Boris....
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142502515960946691
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No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0 -
I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....0 -
I would expect quite a shift from TBP to Conservatives under the new leader, but in turn, that will probably prompt a shift from Lib Dem and Green to Labour.dixiedean said:
Yes. The real polling, as opposed to the hypothetical, whilst swinging wildly, has been consistent on one thing since the last GE. That there will be another hung Parliament.eek said:
A Tory Party with a working majority is a hell of an assumption....alex. said:
Yes, but suspend your disbelief on this minor point..CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
Would a Tory Party with a working majority really pursue crash out no deal Brexit when they've got a guaranteed 5 years in power?
Worth noting also. THREE different parties have led the national polling since the Tories last did.0 -
I do.alex. said:
Do you have contacts on the Sun's editorial board?HYUFD said:
If you had actually bothered to read a word I wrote on the last thread which again clearly you have not, you would have read I said the Sun would likely stay neutral in the leadership race but endorse the Tories whichever of Boris or Hunt wins provided they deliver Brexit. If they do not and extend again the Sun may even endorse Farage and the Brexit PartyCarlottaVance said:The Sun....totally behind Boris....
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142502515960946691
Well one current member and the former editor of thesun.co.uk
But as the Queen told me, she hates name droppers.0 -
On topic, I'm not surprised, Jeremy Hunt is awesome.
If the sole criteria for this election was competence Hunt would win a landslide, but it isn't and he won't.0 -
Norman St John Stevas & Princess Margaret.....TheScreamingEagles said:
But as the Queen told me, she hates name droppers.alex. said:
Do you have contacts on the Sun's editorial board?HYUFD said:
If you had actually bothered to read a word I wrote on the last thread which again clearly you have not, you would have read I said the Sun would likely stay neutral in the leadership race but endorse the Tories whichever of Boris or Hunt wins provided they deliver Brexit. If they do not and extend again the Sun may even endorse Farage and the Brexit PartyCarlottaVance said:The Sun....totally behind Boris....
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/11425025159609466910 -
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election0 -
Disappointed that GO appears to be backing Johnson?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, I'm not surprised, Jeremy Hunt is awesome.
If the sole criteria for this election was competence Hunt would win a landslide.0 -
Polling evidence?HYUFD said:
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under BorisCarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....0 -
Your obsessed with the Brexit party and polling!HYUFD said:
If you had actually bothered to read a word I wrote on the last thread which again clearly you have not, you would have read I said the Sun would likely stay neutral in the leadership race but endorse the Tories whichever of Boris or Hunt wins provided they deliver Brexit. If they do not and extend again the Sun may even endorse Farage and the Brexit PartyCarlottaVance said:The Sun....totally behind Boris....
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142502515960946691
Politics is much more complicated than you think. The Sun backs the party it thinks will win, the Brexit supporting media were artificially boosting Farage to put pressure on the Tories to ditch May. They wont do that in a GE.0 -
I am not one of those particularly excited by the prospect.YBarddCwsc said:
I am pointing out that Marina may not want to involve herself by publicly commenting..Nigelb said:
One can take positions on other people’s personal relationships, and it does provide character evidence.YBarddCwsc said:
When David Blunkett was having rather well publicised difficulties with his relationships, his first wife honourably refused to comment, despite being offered tabloid money. I rather admired her for it.SandyRentool said:Bozo must be mighty relieved that he doesn't have an ex-wife who he cheated on multiple times just waiting to stick the knife in.....
When Chris Huhne ran into marital problems, his wife was perhaps rather too keen to comment to the press.
I am not sure Vicky Pryce made the right call.
Perhaps a marriage has broken down, but you normally want to have a relationship with your ex-partner (especially as in Marina's case, there are children to consider as well).
But unless they’re in a position of significant influence, who cares ?
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Hunt is by far the better choice. Hope that there are enough sane Tories left to realise that.1
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Hunt comes over as diffident, weak and characterless. He cannot make that up by appearing articulate. Mr Smithson, the job of PM requires personality.0
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They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0 -
Not really. I understand George's logic, only a Leaver can delay Brexit going forward, and so long as we've exited the EU by the next general election Leave voter will not hold it against the Tories (we hope!)alex. said:
Disappointed that GO appears to be backing Johnson?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, I'm not surprised, Jeremy Hunt is awesome.
If the sole criteria for this election was competence Hunt would win a landslide.0 -
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Comres, Boris wins 395 seats, Hunt wins 224CarlottaVance said:
Polling evidence?HYUFD said:
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under BorisCarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
https://mobile.twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/11385515625220464640 -
Oh that’s fine then as long as you can buy off your accusers it’s fine to have a rapist etc as head of state?HYUFD said:0 -
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Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0 -
So that will still be a no thenJonathan said:0 -
I think you are fundamentally wrong on Boris winning elections. The type of people he appealed to in London are now repelled by him. No point in gaining votes in Labour safe seats if you dont get middle class support in the marginals. The distrution of vote is very important in FPTP elections. Get an even amount of support everywhere and you get very little. Blair understood how to get support over the whole country with optimum distrubution of votes by advocating popular policies many of which were former Tory policies. I cannot see Boris attracting support and distrubution of support in a similar way to Blair or Thatcher.HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election0 -
Almost right:HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
Hunt is Mitt Romney, ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.
Boris is Rudy Giuliani, ie the has-been ex-Mayor of a big city with a over-inflated reputation that collapses under scrutiny and likely loses the next general election.0 -
Agreed. With the caveat that I would also expect large movements of Lab and Green to LDs anywhere they could be seen to be the main challenger. Tactical voting in other words.Sean_F said:
I would expect quite a shift from TBP to Conservatives under the new leader, but in turn, that will probably prompt a shift from Lib Dem and Green to Labour.dixiedean said:
Yes. The real polling, as opposed to the hypothetical, whilst swinging wildly, has been consistent on one thing since the last GE. That there will be another hung Parliament.eek said:
A Tory Party with a working majority is a hell of an assumption....alex. said:
Yes, but suspend your disbelief on this minor point..CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
Would a Tory Party with a working majority really pursue crash out no deal Brexit when they've got a guaranteed 5 years in power?
Worth noting also. THREE different parties have led the national polling since the Tories last did.0 -
What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.0
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Certainly not to win 395 seats. That is unicorns beyond anything reasonable or even possibleThe_Taxman said:
I think you are fundamentally wrong on Boris winning elections. The type of people he appealed to in London are now repelled by him. No point in gaining votes in Labour safe seats if you dont get middle class support in the marginals. The distrution of vote is very important in FPTP elections. Get an even amount of support everywhere and you get very little. Blair understood how to get support over the whole country with optimum distrubution of votes by advocating popular policies many of which were former Tory policies. I cannot see Boris attracting support and distrubution of support in a similar way to Blair or Thatcher.HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election0 -
I came back from Tokyo ANA peasant class at Easter. In the window seats in front and to the right of me was a Jeremy Hunt and his wife, in front of them were their children. Hunt seemed a normal, family guy. He will come over as decent and trustworthy, despite his tendency to pander to his audience.HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
Johnson if he couldn't swing an RAF freebie, he would surely get The Telegraph to bump him up to the front. Man of the people he is not, the more he is tested the more he will be found wanting. His chaotic personal life is important too because it mirrors his behaviour in office.
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Actually of the top 10 Tory target seats for the next general election 8 are in Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and only 1 is a London Remain seat, KensingtonThe_Taxman said:
I think you are fundamentally wrong on Boris winning elections. The type of people he appealed to in London are now repelled by him. No point in gaining votes in Labour safe seats if you dont get middle class support in the marginals. The distrution of vote is very important in FPTP elections. Get an even amount of support everywhere and you get very little. Blair understood how to get support over the whole country with optimum distrubution of votes by advocating popular policies many of which were former Tory policies. I cannot see Boris attracting support and distrubution of support in a similar way to Blair or Thatcher.HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election0 -
Jeremy Corbyn has personalty too but I'd rather hope we didn't have a clown as Leader of the Opposition and a buffoon as Prime Minster.Vinny said:Hunt comes over as diffident, weak and characterless. He cannot make that up by appearing articulate. Mr Smithson, the job of PM requires personality.
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Rudy lost the 2008 GOP primaries as he was too pro abortion for the GOP base, he would likely have run Obama much closer in 2008 in the general election than McCain didwilliamglenn said:
Almost right:HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
Hunt is Mitt Romney, ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.
Boris is Rudy Giuliani, ie the has-been ex-Mayor of a big city with a over-inflated reputation that collapses under scrutiny and likely loses the next general election.0 -
Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.alex. said:What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.
So 2 votes for Hunt here0 -
I thought he was trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really. I understand George's logic, only a Leaver can delay Brexit going forward, and so long as we've exited the EU by the next general election Leave voter will not hold it against the Tories (we hope!)alex. said:
Disappointed that GO appears to be backing Johnson?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, I'm not surprised, Jeremy Hunt is awesome.
If the sole criteria for this election was competence Hunt would win a landslide.0 -
Getting you from 100% anti Tory to 90% anti Tory is irrelevant if the Tories keep losing 2017 Tories to 100% Brexit PartyJonathan said:0 -
I find it surprising given his wealth he didn't come back business class.Mexicanpete said:
I came back from Tokyo ANA peasant class at Easter. In the window seats in front and to the right of me was a Jeremy Hunt and his wife, in front of them were their children. Hunt seemed a normal, family guy. He will come over as decent and trustworthy, despite his tendency to pander to his audience.HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
Johnson if he couldn't swing an RAF freebie, he would surely get The Telegraph to bump him up to the front. Man of the people he is not, the more he is tested the more he will be found wanting. His chaotic personal life is important too because it mirrors his behaviour in office.0 -
No surprise thereBig_G_NorthWales said:
Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.alex. said:What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.
So 2 votes for Hunt here0 -
Romney was supposedly a normal, decent family man too.Mexicanpete said:
I came back from Tokyo ANA peasant class at Easter. In the window seats in front and to the right of me was a Jeremy Hunt and his wife, in front of them were their children. Hunt seemed a normal, family guy. He will come over as decent and trustworthy, despite his tendency to pander to his audience.HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
Johnson if he couldn't swing an RAF freebie, he would surely get The Telegraph to bump him up to the front. Man of the people he is not, the more he is tested the more he will be found wanting. His chaotic personal life is important too because it mirrors his behaviour in office.
Fat lot of good it did him in 20120 -
I don't think he'd win 395 seats either. I do think he would boost the Conservative vote, in key areas.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Certainly not to win 395 seats. That is unicorns beyond anything reasonable or even possibleThe_Taxman said:
I think you are fundamentally wrong on Boris winning elections. The type of people he appealed to in London are now repelled by him. No point in gaining votes in Labour safe seats if you dont get middle class support in the marginals. The distrution of vote is very important in FPTP elections. Get an even amount of support everywhere and you get very little. Blair understood how to get support over the whole country with optimum distrubution of votes by advocating popular policies many of which were former Tory policies. I cannot see Boris attracting support and distrubution of support in a similar way to Blair or Thatcher.HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
To me, it's a bit like choosing Jeremy Thorpe as leader. He certainly appeals to a lot of voters, but, there's always the chance of a big scandal emerging.0 -
Nope, it is too serious for that.Sean_F said:
I thought he was trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really. I understand George's logic, only a Leaver can delay Brexit going forward, and so long as we've exited the EU by the next general election Leave voter will not hold it against the Tories (we hope!)alex. said:
Disappointed that GO appears to be backing Johnson?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, I'm not surprised, Jeremy Hunt is awesome.
If the sole criteria for this election was competence Hunt would win a landslide.
Like a lot of us he's utterly heartbroken about what has become of the Tory party.0 -
-
You don’t defeat Farage by playing his game. He is a better at it than you. You are supposed to be Conservatives not ideological zealots. Play to your strengths.HYUFD said:
Getting you from 100% anti Tory to 90% anti Tory is irrelevant if the Tories keep losing 2017 Tories to 100% Brexit PartyJonathan said:0 -
And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizonsHYUFD said:
No surprise thereBig_G_NorthWales said:
Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.alex. said:What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.
So 2 votes for Hunt here0 -
Family of 5 business class ....... ouch. 15k return? Maybe 5 times a year?Benpointer said:
I find it surprising given his wealth he didn't come back business class.
Even if you're properly rich, that stings a bit :-)0 -
Which in your eyes means picking another Remainer to fail to deliver Brexit again so we can lose gracefully to Corbyn or Farage at the next general election.Jonathan said:
You don’t defeat Farage by playing his game. He is a better at it than you. You are supposed to be Conservatives not ideological zealots. Play to your strengths.HYUFD said:
Getting you from 100% anti Tory to 90% anti Tory is irrelevant if the Tories keep losing 2017 Tories to 100% Brexit PartyJonathan said:
Enough of that, I want a leader now who actually believes in Brexit and wants to deliver it and can win0 -
Lucky for Johnson that his views on abortion don't matter.HYUFD said:
Rudy lost the 2008 GOP primaries as he was too pro abortion for the GOP base, he would likely have run Obama much closer in 2008 in the general election than McCain didwilliamglenn said:
Almost right:HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
Hunt is Mitt Romney, ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.
Boris is Rudy Giuliani, ie the has-been ex-Mayor of a big city with a over-inflated reputation that collapses under scrutiny and likely loses the next general election.1 -
I went to a Lib conference in the mid 80's where there were calls to 'get Jeremy back'!Sean_F said:
I don't think he'd win 395 seats either. I do think he would boost the Conservative vote, in key areas.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Certainly not to win 395 seats. That is unicorns beyond anything reasonable or even possibleThe_Taxman said:
I think you are fundamentally wrong on Boris winning elections. The type of people he appealed to in London are now repelled by him. No point in gaining votes in Labour safe seats if you dont get middle class support in the marginals. The distrution of vote is very important in FPTP elections. Get an even amount of support everywhere and you get very little. Blair understood how to get support over the whole country with optimum distrubution of votes by advocating popular policies many of which were former Tory policies. I cannot see Boris attracting support and distrubution of support in a similar way to Blair or Thatcher.HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
To me, it's a bit like choosing Jeremy Thorpe as leader. He certainly appeals to a lot of voters, but, there's always the chance of a big scandal emerging.0 -
Well Boris is hoodwinking you and many others. He will only do that which is good for Boris and he is not to be trustedHYUFD said:
Which in your eyes means picking another Remainer to fail to deliver Brexit again so we can lose gracefully to Corbyn or Farage at the next general election.Jonathan said:
You don’t defeat Farage by playing his game. He is a better at it than you. You are supposed to be Conservatives not ideological zealots. Play to your strengths.HYUFD said:
Getting you from 100% anti Tory to 90% anti Tory is irrelevant if the Tories keep losing 2017 Tories to 100% Brexit PartyJonathan said:
Enough of that, I want a leader now who actually believes in Brexit and wants to deliver it and can win0 -
Boris may save the Toies. Maybe.
Hunt won't.
0 -
I suspect you are right that Hunt over the campaign will make it closer to 60% to 40% than 70% to 30% as it was at the beginning but Boris will still win comfortably.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizonsHYUFD said:
No surprise thereBig_G_NorthWales said:
Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.alex. said:What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.
So 2 votes for Hunt here
IDS of course won the Tory membership vote himself in 2001 when he beat Ken Clarke0 -
The UK electoral map is not one homogeneous equation that runs by pre determined logic, especially when you see voting opinions based on hypothetical non elections. Yes you can have a poll showing party x has y% but to then translate that into votes in the ballot box is a fantasy step too far. As was pointed out before you have to actually get candidates in place with financial transparency, you have to get said candidates to polling day preaching at least a similar message on issues other than brexit. You then actually have to then get the voters out to vote, especially if voting isn’t an ingrained habit.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris
It’s bloody hard work working an election that requires people who have a vague idea about what they are doing and candidates who are not going to shoot the party in the foot. If you have a background in campaigning in marginals or in seats that you can win through differential turn out you’ll understand, otherwise at for the only poll that matters.1 -
Hunt actually wants to reduce the abortion time limitalex. said:
Lucky for Johnson that his views on abortion don't matter.HYUFD said:
Rudy lost the 2008 GOP primaries as he was too pro abortion for the GOP base, he would likely have run Obama much closer in 2008 in the general election than McCain didwilliamglenn said:
Almost right:HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
Hunt is Mitt Romney, ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.
Boris is Rudy Giuliani, ie the has-been ex-Mayor of a big city with a over-inflated reputation that collapses under scrutiny and likely loses the next general election.0 -
And how did that work outHYUFD said:
I suspect you are right that Hunt over the campaign will make it closer to 60% to 40% than 70% to 30% as it was at the beginning but Boris will still win comfortably.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizonsHYUFD said:
No surprise thereBig_G_NorthWales said:
Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.alex. said:What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.
So 2 votes for Hunt here
IDS of course won the Tory membership vote himself in 2001 when he beat Ken Clarke0 -
You are lost. Hunt is competent. Boris is not. If you want Brexit you’re better off with Hunt.HYUFD said:
Which in your eyes means picking another Remainer to fail to deliver Brexit again so we can lose gracefully to Corbyn or Farage at the next general election.Jonathan said:
You don’t defeat Farage by playing his game. He is a better at it than you. You are supposed to be Conservatives not ideological zealots. Play to your strengths.HYUFD said:
Getting you from 100% anti Tory to 90% anti Tory is irrelevant if the Tories keep losing 2017 Tories to 100% Brexit PartyJonathan said:
Enough of that, I want a leader now who actually believes in Brexit and wants to deliver it and can win0 -
If you want to get Tories and Leavers out to vote at the next general election then Boris is the man to do it, not Hunt who will enthuse voters as much as May did in 2017nichomar said:
The UK electoral map is not one homogeneous equation that runs by pre determined logic, especially when you see voting opinions based on hypothetical non elections. Yes you can have a poll showing party x has y% but to then translate that into votes in the ballot box is a fantasy step too far. As was pointed out before you have to actually get candidates in place with financial transparency, you have to get said candidates to polling day preaching at least a similar message on issues other than brexit. You then actually have to then get the voters out to vote, especially if voting isn’t an ingrained habit.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris
It’s bloody hard work working an election that requires people who have a vague idea about what they are doing and candidates who are not going to shoot the party in the foot. If you have a background in campaigning in marginals or in seats that you can win through differential turn out you’ll understand, otherwise at for the only poll that matters.0 -
Whoosh.HYUFD said:
Hunt actually wants to reduce the abortion time limitalex. said:
Lucky for Johnson that his views on abortion don't matter.HYUFD said:
Rudy lost the 2008 GOP primaries as he was too pro abortion for the GOP base, he would likely have run Obama much closer in 2008 in the general election than McCain didwilliamglenn said:
Almost right:HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
Hunt is Mitt Romney, ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.
Boris is Rudy Giuliani, ie the has-been ex-Mayor of a big city with a over-inflated reputation that collapses under scrutiny and likely loses the next general election.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9MSka2l51AOldKingCole said:
I went to a Lib conference in the mid 80's where there were calls to 'get Jeremy back'!Sean_F said:
I don't think he'd win 395 seats either. I do think he would boost the Conservative vote, in key areas.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Certainly not to win 395 seats. That is unicorns beyond anything reasonable or even possibleThe_Taxman said:
I think you are fundamentally wrong on Boris winning elections. The type of people he appealed to in London are now repelled by him. No point in gaining votes in Labour safe seats if you dont get middle class support in the marginals. The distrution of vote is very important in FPTP elections. Get an even amount of support everywhere and you get very little. Blair understood how to get support over the whole country with optimum distrubution of votes by advocating popular policies many of which were former Tory policies. I cannot see Boris attracting support and distrubution of support in a similar way to Blair or Thatcher.HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
To me, it's a bit like choosing Jeremy Thorpe as leader. He certainly appeals to a lot of voters, but, there's always the chance of a big scandal emerging.
0 -
The Tories improved their poll rating and won more councillorsBig_G_NorthWales said:
And how did that work outHYUFD said:
I suspect you are right that Hunt over the campaign will make it closer to 60% to 40% than 70% to 30% as it was at the beginning but Boris will still win comfortably.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizonsHYUFD said:
No surprise thereBig_G_NorthWales said:
Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.alex. said:What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.
So 2 votes for Hunt here
IDS of course won the Tory membership vote himself in 2001 when he beat Ken Clarke0 -
I bet Boris doesn't.alex. said:
Whoosh.HYUFD said:
Hunt actually wants to reduce the abortion time limitalex. said:
Lucky for Johnson that his views on abortion don't matter.HYUFD said:
Rudy lost the 2008 GOP primaries as he was too pro abortion for the GOP base, he would likely have run Obama much closer in 2008 in the general election than McCain didwilliamglenn said:
Almost right:HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
Hunt is Mitt Romney, ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.
Boris is Rudy Giuliani, ie the has-been ex-Mayor of a big city with a over-inflated reputation that collapses under scrutiny and likely loses the next general election.0 -
Why? Hunt's policy is he will competently renegotiate the backstop.Jonathan said:
You are lost. Hunt is competent. Boris is not. If you want Brexit you’re better off with Hunt.HYUFD said:
Which in your eyes means picking another Remainer to fail to deliver Brexit again so we can lose gracefully to Corbyn or Farage at the next general election.Jonathan said:
You don’t defeat Farage by playing his game. He is a better at it than you. You are supposed to be Conservatives not ideological zealots. Play to your strengths.HYUFD said:
Getting you from 100% anti Tory to 90% anti Tory is irrelevant if the Tories keep losing 2017 Tories to 100% Brexit PartyJonathan said:
Enough of that, I want a leader now who actually believes in Brexit and wants to deliver it and can win
The EU will competently say no.
Hunt will then competently extend Article 50 again rather than leave with No Deal or try for a GB FTA.
Hunt will then competently lead the Tories to be slaughtered by Farage and Corbyn at the next general election as a result0 -
Neither of the non-Thorpes are me!Sean_F said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9MSka2l51AOldKingCole said:
I went to a Lib conference in the mid 80's where there were calls to 'get Jeremy back'!Sean_F said:
I don't think he'd win 395 seats either. I do think he would boost the Conservative vote, in key areas.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Certainly not to win 395 seats. That is unicorns beyond anything reasonable or even possibleThe_Taxman said:
I think you are fundamentally wrong on Boris winning elections. The type of people he appealed to in London are now repelled by him. No point in gaining votes in Labour safe seats if you dont get middle class support in the marginals. The distrution of vote is very important in FPTP elections. Get an even amount of support everywhere and you get very little. Blair understood how to get support over the whole country with optimum distrubution of votes by advocating popular policies many of which were former Tory policies. I cannot see Boris attracting support and distrubution of support in a similar way to Blair or Thatcher.HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
To me, it's a bit like choosing Jeremy Thorpe as leader. He certainly appeals to a lot of voters, but, there's always the chance of a big scandal emerging.0 -
I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0 -
It is striking though, that more people now identify as Remain or Leave than now profess a religion. For some people, being Remain or Leave has become a religion.justin124 said:
I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0 -
Ok then if Johnson is Tory leader they are all going down the polling station to vote Tory because it’s ‘boris’. Good luck with that it’s about as likely as the TBP winning more than ten seats.HYUFD said:
If you want to get Tories and Leavers out to vote at the next general election then Boris is the man to do it, not Hunt who will enthuse voters as much as May did in 2017nichomar said:
The UK electoral map is not one homogeneous equation that runs by pre determined logic, especially when you see voting opinions based on hypothetical non elections. Yes you can have a poll showing party x has y% but to then translate that into votes in the ballot box is a fantasy step too far. As was pointed out before you have to actually get candidates in place with financial transparency, you have to get said candidates to polling day preaching at least a similar message on issues other than brexit. You then actually have to then get the voters out to vote, especially if voting isn’t an ingrained habit.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris
It’s bloody hard work working an election that requires people who have a vague idea about what they are doing and candidates who are not going to shoot the party in the foot. If you have a background in campaigning in marginals or in seats that you can win through differential turn out you’ll understand, otherwise at for the only poll that matters.0 -
It will not be a Brexit election if we actually Brexit before the next general election as both parties promised before the last general election.justin124 said:
I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris
If we are still in the EU by the next general election then Brexit will dominate0 -
So did Labour members elect the leader that Conservative voters woud prefer, or did they go with the person who made their socialist hearts sing?Jonathan said:0 -
Indeed, and quite obviously so given the emphasis on moral goodness of various positions, the importance of belief (and pureness of that belief - many are the leavers who are not leavey enough, or remainers who have accepted not remaining, who are derided, and the preposterous assertion that only if someone believed in it 3 years ago can they be trusted, vs whether they believe in it now), the trust that some magical solution will be found to leave/remain, that any price is worth paying, and so on and so forth.Sean_F said:
It is striking though, that more people now identify as Remain or Leave than now profess a religion. For some people, being Remain or Leave has become a religion.justin124 said:
I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0 -
Right now you are living your own fantasy to be fairHYUFD said:
The Tories improved their poll rating and won more councillorsBig_G_NorthWales said:
And how did that work outHYUFD said:
I suspect you are right that Hunt over the campaign will make it closer to 60% to 40% than 70% to 30% as it was at the beginning but Boris will still win comfortably.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizonsHYUFD said:
No surprise thereBig_G_NorthWales said:
Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.alex. said:What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.
So 2 votes for Hunt here
IDS of course won the Tory membership vote himself in 2001 when he beat Ken Clarke0 -
If (yes I know) Brexit is half the disaster forecast then the next GE WILL be about BrexitHYUFD said:
It will not be a Brexit election if we actually Brexit before the next general election as both parties promised before the last general election.justin124 said:
I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris
If we are still in the EU by the next general election then Brexit will dominate0 -
That does rather depend on what Boris will mange to do and how much he might disappoint on his promises in the initial months, so he will need to be careful, but yes he starts out having a better chance of getting those groups out.HYUFD said:
If you want to get Tories and Leavers out to vote at the next general election then Boris is the man to do it, not Hunt who will enthuse voters as much as May did in 2017nichomar said:
The UK electoral map is not one homogeneous equation that runs by pre determined logic, especially when you see voting opinions based on hypothetical non elections. Yes you can have a poll showing party x has y% but to then translate that into votes in the ballot box is a fantasy step too far. As was pointed out before you have to actually get candidates in place with financial transparency, you have to get said candidates to polling day preaching at least a similar message on issues other than brexit. You then actually have to then get the voters out to vote, especially if voting isn’t an ingrained habit.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris
It’s bloody hard work working an election that requires people who have a vague idea about what they are doing and candidates who are not going to shoot the party in the foot. If you have a background in campaigning in marginals or in seats that you can win through differential turn out you’ll understand, otherwise at for the only poll that matters.0 -
2021 Census could have some interesting entries in the religion field.Sean_F said:
It is striking though, that more people now identify as Remain or Leave than now profess a religion. For some people, being Remain or Leave has become a religion.justin124 said:
I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0
This discussion has been closed.