politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the moment at current prices I’m laying Johnson

Stereotomy said:

JackW said:

another_richard said:

Did she have an air horn and was she using it at the time ?

If so that puts the imagery into a rather different light or rather sound.

Not that I'm aware. I phrased that sentence poorly. My point being the fact she didn't have an air horn didn't mean she didn't have other weapons readily available or hidden.

Oh shit, I just realised I don't know if ANY of the people standing near me have hidden weapons! What do I do? I figure after I've put the first one or two in a chokehold I'll lose the element of surprise...

Oh shit, this intruder pushed past me and I didn't realise there was a problem until they struck a friend in the face with their fist and then pull out a knife.

The memorial service for my friend was nice though.

Nigelb said:

NickPalmer said:

JackW said:

And if this protester had attacked the Chancellor would you have so sanguine? She was within 10 feet of Hammond. We can all be very measured miles away from the event but in the split second I'd want Mark Field in a tight corner and not a snowflake weighing up the social justice optics of situation.

This morning we might have been discussing a very serious assault or worse on a senior cabinet minister. That should be more sobering to us all.

As I said, questions need to be asked about how the protestors gained access - that is unusual. But I've been threatened with murder (once) and assault (several times) myself, and I still don't want random people manhandling any protestor who comes near me.

Mr Field’s unreserved apology suggests that on reflection he would tend to agree with you.
I applaud him for apologising so quickly rather than enduring the usual week or so of trial by media.

Yes. I do find it odd that Bottomley, and various people on here, are offering a defence that Mark Field in all fairness isn't.

I worry rather that he reacted in the way he did but at least, having done so, he very quickly apologised.

Theuniondivvie said:

another_richard said:

Theuniondivvie said:

another_richard said:

OblitusSumMe said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Mark Field is not really my cup of tea, but my sympathies are with him, rather than the tosser he ejected.

I don't see why we have to choose. Surely it's possible to be unimpressed with the behaviour of both.

Agreed.

Indeed, this rush to "oh, you have to choose a side" is frankly sick.

Should the protestor have been there? No. And she should have been escorted from the premises by security. (And possibly charged, if she broke a crime.)

And should Mr Field have grabbed her by the neck, bashed her against the wall, and pushed her out the room? Nope, that neither. If a police officer did that with a peaceful protestor (especially one who hadn't even been ask to "move along" yet), I hope we'd say that excess force was used.

There's no need to take sides here. They both behaved poorly, and requiring that there is some "ranking" is wank.

One of my worries at some of the reaction is that some of the people defending Mark Field are doing so because this was a protestor for a cause they oppose, but if they'd been a protestor for an impeccably right-wing cause then they would have a different view.

That's a deeply worrying sign of the polarisation of our politics.

And of course the opposite applies.

How many PBers defended attacks on Farage for example.

How many of those who were exciting themselves over Farage's milkshaker being prosecuted for assault and losing his job are stimulated enough to require the same consequences be applied to Field?

Rather different situation though.

Whatever people might think of Field it wasn't him who went to the dinner to cause trouble.

And fwiw the bloke who lobbed a milkshake at Farage says it wasn't pre-planned.

We all have our triggers, for some it's a lassie in a sleeveless dress spouting on about the environment, for others it's a brown toothed anti immigrationist reeking of Emby Regals.

It seems you have a trigger as well - when someone points out the inconsistency of your argument.

It was Farage and Field who were going about their business and got disrupted by trouble causers, the only difference is that Field reacted foolishly.

isam said:

logical_song said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

another_richard said:

OblitusSumMe said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Mark Field is not really my cup of tea, but my sympathies are with him, rather than the tosser he ejected.

I don't see why we have to choose. Surely it's possible to be unimpressed with the behaviour of both.

Agreed.

Indeed, this rush to "oh, you have to choose a side" is frankly sick.

Should the protestor have been there? No. And she should have been escorted from the premises by security. (And possibly charged, if she broke a crime.)

And should Mr Field have grabbed her by the neck, bashed her against the wall, and pushed her out the room? Nope, that neither. If a police officer did that with a peaceful protestor (especially one who hadn't even been ask to "move along" yet), I hope we'd say that excess force was used.

There's no need to take sides here. They both behaved poorly, and requiring that there is some "ranking" is wank.

One of my worries at some of the reaction is that some of the people defending Mark Field are doing so because this was a protestor for a cause they oppose, but if they'd been a protestor for an impeccably right-wing cause then they would have a different view.

That's a deeply worrying sign of the polarisation of our politics.

And of course the opposite applies.

How many PBers defended attacks on Farage for example.

How many of those who were exciting themselves over Farage's milkshaker being prosecuted for assault and losing his job are stimulated enough to require the same consequences be applied to Field?

Not me 🤣😘

... so no change there.

Protagonists are to blame not the attacked 👍🏻

The lady was attacked, I believe.

Sir Norfolk, his reaction was over the top. Probably because he has no training whatsoever in the field of security, where a significant failing occurred.

I don't think it's wise to be complacent about security around major political figures, particularly in the current climate.

A curious incident this morning (I stress that this is nothing to do with the Field thing). A police officer (with EMERGENCY flak jacket, baton, etc.) called and politely said he was there to serve a criminal restraint order on me. I expressed surprise, and he looked a bit confused and asked if I was Martin N*** (I won't put the name here, but nobody I've heard of - however, a letter for him had arrived yesterday which I returned to sender). I said no and suggested he ask my landlord if they'd heard of him. He said "Oh, OK", and went off to ring my landlord's bell.

On reflection, several thoughts:

1. He should have asked who I was before announcing that he wanted to serve an order on me. If I had a nervous disposition I might have found it alarming.

2. On the other hand, he shouldn't have accepted my word that I wasn't Martin N***, and could reasonably have asked for ID.

3. It's a bit odd that he didn't show me identification himself. Anyone can dress up as an officer.

All minor stuff, but I do wonder whether I'd have been treated as deferentially if I'd been a black teenager.

In a criminal context, Field's over-reaction was understandable.

However, Field could have (and should have) achieved the same effect without the degree of force he evidently used. I just admit I lean to the view that that misjudgement is inconsistent with his role with the FCO.

NickPalmer said:

A curious incident this morning (I stress that this is nothing to do with the Field thing). A police officer (with EMERGENCY flak jacket, baton, etc.) called and politely said he was there to serve a criminal restraint order on me. I expressed surprise, and he looked a bit confused and asked if I was Martin N*** (I won't put the name here, but nobody I've heard of - however, a letter for him had arrived yesterday which I returned to sender). I said no and suggested he ask my landlord if they'd heard of him. He said "Oh, OK", and went off to ring my landlord's bell.

On reflection, several thoughts:

1. He should have asked who I was before announcing that he wanted to serve an order on me. If I had a nervous disposition I might have found it alarming.

2. On the other hand, he shouldn't have accepted my word that I wasn't Martin N***, and could reasonably have asked for ID.

3. It's a bit odd that he didn't show me identification himself. Anyone can dress up as an officer.

All minor stuff, but I do wonder whether I'd have been treated as deferentially if I'd been a black teenager.

And god only knows how you'd have been treated if you'd been identifiable as a former Labour MP

Mysticrose said:

Okay one more thing before I get to work. I know this may not be popular on here, but I'm convinced this 'tactical voting' accusation is going to haunt the whole of Boris' premiership. Some of you won't agree because, you may feel, it was a masterstroke by Shapps and Williamson.

But it's not. To command the support of this particular Conservative parliamentary party will require absolute trust. It's not going to be sufficient to strong-arm. It needs confidence that the leader has won fair and square. More so than Gordon Brown. More so than Theresa May.

Right now this may to some of you seem funny, or smart, or poetic justice. But this will dog him to the day he's booted out.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48714673

I disagree. For one thing, the poor design of the process allows this sort of thing to happen. For another, BJ was going to win the run-off whoever his opponent was. For another, there'll be more than enough important matters to occupy everyone's attention come the autumn.

nichomar said:

There is a much longer clip showing how the protesters were being handled on the other side of the room, it had been going on for a short while and most in the room knew what was happening before she approached the front. There is also full audio. I’ve never learnt to cut and paste on an iPad so can’t give you the link.

It’s the ITV News clip.

Ishmael_Z said:

NickPalmer said:

A curious incident this morning (I stress that this is nothing to do with the Field thing). A police officer (with EMERGENCY flak jacket, baton, etc.) called and politely said he was there to serve a criminal restraint order on me. I expressed surprise, and he looked a bit confused and asked if I was Martin N*** (I won't put the name here, but nobody I've heard of - however, a letter for him had arrived yesterday which I returned to sender). I said no and suggested he ask my landlord if they'd heard of him. He said "Oh, OK", and went off to ring my landlord's bell.

On reflection, several thoughts:

1. He should have asked who I was before announcing that he wanted to serve an order on me. If I had a nervous disposition I might have found it alarming.

2. On the other hand, he shouldn't have accepted my word that I wasn't Martin N***, and could reasonably have asked for ID.

3. It's a bit odd that he didn't show me identification himself. Anyone can dress up as an officer.

All minor stuff, but I do wonder whether I'd have been treated as deferentially if I'd been a black teenager.

I'd be (only mildly) concerned that this was part of an identity theft - perhaps check bank accounts for strange goings on?

And nip over to Experian and run a quick check

Harris_Tweed said:

NickPalmer said:

A curious incident this morning (I stress that this is nothing to do with the Field thing). A police officer (with EMERGENCY flak jacket, baton, etc.) called and politely said he was there to serve a criminal restraint order on me. I expressed surprise, and he looked a bit confused and asked if I was Martin N*** (I won't put the name here, but nobody I've heard of - however, a letter for him had arrived yesterday which I returned to sender). I said no and suggested he ask my landlord if they'd heard of him. He said "Oh, OK", and went off to ring my landlord's bell.

On reflection, several thoughts:

1. He should have asked who I was before announcing that he wanted to serve an order on me. If I had a nervous disposition I might have found it alarming.

2. On the other hand, he shouldn't have accepted my word that I wasn't Martin N***, and could reasonably have asked for ID.

3. It's a bit odd that he didn't show me identification himself. Anyone can dress up as an officer.

All minor stuff, but I do wonder whether I'd have been treated as deferentially if I'd been a black teenager.

And god only knows how you'd have been treated if you'd been identifiable as a former Labour MP

Former communist agitator, you mean?

nichomar said:

There is a much longer clip showing how the protesters were being handled on the other side of the room, it had been going on for a short while and most in the room knew what was happening before she approached the front. There is also full audio. I’ve never learnt to cut and paste on an iPad so can’t give you the link.

Long press within a text field and a black menu should appear with 'copy' and 'paste' as an option.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Passmore, that's a little complacent given, presumably, there were knives all over the place as a matter of course. If she'd been intent on violence, it wouldn't be difficult to acquire one when inside.

And if steak was on the menu (was it?) those knives would have been of the very sharp kind. Potentially lethal in the wrong hands.

So, angry woman, lethal weapon, a defenceless Philip Hammond ... need I go on?

Nigelb said:

What this does aptly demonstrate is the limitations of the legal ‘reasonable person’ test.

There is clearly a chasm between two different opinions of what reasonable might mean these days.

I'm not sure that's right.

The reasonable person test in relation to self-defence looks at what force is objectively reasonable given the situation as the person subjectively believes it to be. That belief can be wrong, it just needs to be honestly held.

I don't think we're actually arguing about the first part (objectively reasonable force) but the second (subjective belief).

On that, there seem to be two positions:

1. Field honestly believed there was a real and substantial physical threat in light of well-publicised past incidents of violence towards public figures, and the febrile political environment of the present.

2. Field had no such belief in light of the fact protesters had announced their cause and the individual involved was a slightly mumsy lady wearing a ball gown and sash, and carrying a phone, and Field just wanted to get onto the cheese course ASAP.

Within the first camp, some people presumably appreciate Field had misread the situation rather badly. With hindsight, he plainly had and admits it himself. But that isn't the test; hindsight is 20:20 and the issue is what he thought at the time.

And within the second camp, presumably some people realise that a conviction is unlikely. I am hugely sceptical about whether Field honestly believed there was a danger, but he says he did and it's hard to prove beyond reasonable doubt that he didn't.

But I don't think the issue is one of what degree of force is reasonable. If people in the first camp were converted to the view Field perceived no threat, how many would say "he was still justified in throwing the lady against the pillar and grabbing her neck - cheese courses matter that much"? Likewise, if I thought Field genuinely believed there was a real risk of imminent violence from the woman, I'd not be taking an extreme pacifist line on it.

Field's action is comparable to footballers who go over the top in dealing with someone who has run onto the pitch.

Just thank feck he didn't have his steak knife in his hand when he jumped up to grab her.

FrankBooth said:

another_richard said:

JackW said:

another_richard said:

Did she have an air horn and was she using it at the time ?

If so that puts the imagery into a rather different light or rather sound.

Not that I'm aware. I phrased that sentence poorly. My point being the fact she didn't have an air horn didn't mean she didn't have other weapons readily available or hidden.

Jo Brand's battery acid comment looks ever less helpful in retrospect.

Battery acid joke.

There's been very little discussion thus far on who PM Boris would appoint to his senior cabinet positions. This strikes me as extremely important. One thing you could say for May is that she did keep the most senior positions for sensible people whilst acknowledging she needed prominent Brexiteers like Johnson, Davis and Fox.

Boris is going to treble the size of the cabinet to accommodate all his promises

"Climate Justice and Green Jobs" Eh?

IanB2 said:

FrankBooth said:

another_richard said:

JackW said:

another_richard said:

Did she have an air horn and was she using it at the time ?

If so that puts the imagery into a rather different light or rather sound.

Not that I'm aware. I phrased that sentence poorly. My point being the fact she didn't have an air horn didn't mean she didn't have other weapons readily available or hidden.

Jo Brand's battery acid comment looks ever less helpful in retrospect.

Battery acid joke.

There's been very little discussion thus far on who PM Boris would appoint to his senior cabinet positions. This strikes me as extremely important. One thing you could say for May is that she did keep the most senior positions for sensible people whilst acknowledging she needed prominent Brexiteers like Johnson, Davis and Fox.

Boris is going to treble the size of the cabinet to accommodate all his promises

Legally the total in the Cabinet cannot exceed 23

MikeSmithson said:

IanB2 said:

FrankBooth said:

another_richard said:

JackW said:

another_richard said:

Did she have an air horn and was she using it at the time ?

If so that puts the imagery into a rather different light or rather sound.

Not that I'm aware. I phrased that sentence poorly. My point being the fact she didn't have an air horn didn't mean she didn't have other weapons readily available or hidden.

Jo Brand's battery acid comment looks ever less helpful in retrospect.

Battery acid joke.

There's been very little discussion thus far on who PM Boris would appoint to his senior cabinet positions. This strikes me as extremely important. One thing you could say for May is that she did keep the most senior positions for sensible people whilst acknowledging she needed prominent Brexiteers like Johnson, Davis and Fox.

Boris is going to treble the size of the cabinet to accommodate all his promises

Legally the total in the Cabinet cannot exceed 23

Laws can be changed...

logical_song said:

isam said:

logical_song said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

another_richard said:

OblitusSumMe said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

Mark Field is not really my cup of tea, but my sympathies are with him, rather than the tosser he ejected.

I don't see why we have to choose. Surely it's possible to be unimpressed with the behaviour of both.

Agreed.

Indeed, this rush to "oh, you have to choose a side" is frankly sick.

Should the protestor have been there? No. And she should have been escorted from the premises by security. (And possibly charged, if she broke a crime.)

And should Mr Field have grabbed her by the neck, bashed her against the wall, and pushed her out the room? Nope, that neither. If a police officer did that with a peaceful protestor (especially one who hadn't even been ask to "move along" yet), I hope we'd say that excess force was used.

There's no need to take sides here. They both behaved poorly, and requiring that there is some "ranking" is wank.

One of my worries at some of the reaction is that some of the people defending Mark Field are doing so because this was a protestor for a cause they oppose, but if they'd been a protestor for an impeccably right-wing cause then they would have a different view.

That's a deeply worrying sign of the polarisation of our politics.

And of course the opposite applies.

How many PBers defended attacks on Farage for example.

How many of those who were exciting themselves over Farage's milkshaker being prosecuted for assault and losing his job are stimulated enough to require the same consequences be applied to Field?

Not me 🤣😘

... so no change there.

Protagonists are to blame not the attacked 👍🏻

The lady was attacked, I believe.

Nah

Theuniondivvie said:

Jezza grabbing the narrative by the neck.

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1141997640214831104

Air horns at PMQs ?

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1142002225369272321

While that is crass, the incident does show Layla Moran's wisdom in not standing for the Lib Dem leadership: she'd have been hamstrung responding to this.

Dura_Ace said:

https://twitter.com/MarkFieldUK/status/1126432512727764992

LOL. What a twat.

Guess that pledge didn't stretch to when a woman's work is invading a banquet for MPs, bankers and other assorted rich people...

DecrepitJohnL said:

kinabalu said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Passmore, that's a little complacent given, presumably, there were knives all over the place as a matter of course. If she'd been intent on violence, it wouldn't be difficult to acquire one when inside.

And if steak was on the menu (was it?) those knives would have been of the very sharp kind. Potentially lethal in the wrong hands.

So, angry woman, lethal weapon, a defenceless Philip Hammond ... need I go on?

Mark Field, pissed up and pissed off Brexiteer MP, angry at the Remoaner Chancellor, one glass of red too many, steak knives to hand. Thank goodness the ISIS evening gown patrol showed up in time to save Spreadsheet Phil.

This is all nonsense of the type we used to get when the tabloids would print pap shots of Lady Di under the headline, this could have been a rifle.

Who knows? Maybe it will fester on till Field is sacked; maybe it will be water under a bridge in a week's time.

He’s a Brexiteer now? There has to be more to it than being a middle aged man to qualify surely?

Nigelb said:

MikeSmithson said:

IanB2 said:

FrankBooth said:

another_richard said:

JackW said:

another_richard said:

Did she have an air horn and was she using it at the time ?

If so that puts the imagery into a rather different light or rather sound.

Not that I'm aware. I phrased that sentence poorly. My point being the fact she didn't have an air horn didn't mean she didn't have other weapons readily available or hidden.

Jo Brand's battery acid comment looks ever less helpful in retrospect.

Battery acid joke.

There's been very little discussion thus far on who PM Boris would appoint to his senior cabinet positions. This strikes me as extremely important. One thing you could say for May is that she did keep the most senior positions for sensible people whilst acknowledging she needed prominent Brexiteers like Johnson, Davis and Fox.

Boris is going to treble the size of the cabinet to accommodate all his promises

Legally the total in the Cabinet cannot exceed 23

Laws can be changed...

In this House of Commons?

AlastairMeeks said:

Nigelb said:

MikeSmithson said:

IanB2 said:

FrankBooth said:

another_richard said:

JackW said:

another_richard said:

Did she have an air horn and was she using it at the time ?

If so that puts the imagery into a rather different light or rather sound.

Not that I'm aware. I phrased that sentence poorly. My point being the fact she didn't have an air horn didn't mean she didn't have other weapons readily available or hidden.

Jo Brand's battery acid comment looks ever less helpful in retrospect.

Battery acid joke.

There's been very little discussion thus far on who PM Boris would appoint to his senior cabinet positions. This strikes me as extremely important. One thing you could say for May is that she did keep the most senior positions for sensible people whilst acknowledging she needed prominent Brexiteers like Johnson, Davis and Fox.

Boris is going to treble the size of the cabinet to accommodate all his promises

Legally the total in the Cabinet cannot exceed 23

Laws can be changed...

In this House of Commons?

True.
Snap election, then.

Richard_Nabavi said:

What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.

People cheer any controversy that might be used against a political opponent like they’re celebrating a goal at a football match. Unthinkers are taking over.

HYUFD said:

Mysticrose said:

So the clock is ticking down to the Brecon & Radnor count. Are we about to see the Tory-DUP working majority slip another 1, soon to be 2 after the by-election?

And in other news, for those who proclaimed that Boris will be safe in Uxbridge just LOOK at that Merton result posted earlier. I think the LibDems may storm London at the General Election. I'd love a flutter on Boris losing his own seat.

Merton voted Remain, Hillingdon and Uxbridge voted Leave.

In the European elections the LDs won the former and the Brexit Party won the latter

Uxbridge & South Ruislip is an interesting constituency, though: the Lib Dems are nowhere and (as you've just said) it's quite susceptible to the Brexit Party.

2017 was Con 50.8%, Lab 40.0%, LD 3.9%, UKIP 3.4%, Green 1.9%.

At the next GE I think you can assume the Lib Dems won't really campaign there - they have limited resources and much more tempting targets elsewhere in London. Demographically the seat is friendlier to Labour than the Lib Dems. So the Labour vote will see a little bit of seepage to LD and Green, but it will largely hold up.

The Conservative vote, however, has two ways to go: Brexit Party or LD. Whatever has happened by the time of the next GE, a significant chunk of that vote is likely to be pissed off. If we've left, some will go LD, potentially some BXP depending on the shape of the deal. If we haven't, some will go LD, lots will go BXP. BXP only have to get 11% (half their current polling) from Boris for him to lose his seat.

So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

Richard_Nabavi said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Mark Field, pissed up and pissed off Brexiteer MP, angry at the Remoaner Chancellor, one glass of red too many, steak knives to hand. Thank goodness the ISIS evening gown patrol showed up in time to save Spreadsheet Phil.

Err, Mark Field is not a Brexiteer, far from it.

Mark Field voted for the man promising Brexit this autumn with or without a deal.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/21/boris-johnson-vs-jeremy-hunt-tory-leadership/

isam said:

What’s crass about it? It’s true

Crass does not equate to false.

Richard_Nabavi said:

What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.

Rich Tory posho physically attacking an illegally trespassing climate change "protester" - I say plague on both their houses!

El_Capitano said:

HYUFD said:

Mysticrose said:

So the clock is ticking down to the Brecon & Radnor count. Are we about to see the Tory-DUP working majority slip another 1, soon to be 2 after the by-election?

And in other news, for those who proclaimed that Boris will be safe in Uxbridge just LOOK at that Merton result posted earlier. I think the LibDems may storm London at the General Election. I'd love a flutter on Boris losing his own seat.

Merton voted Remain, Hillingdon and Uxbridge voted Leave.

In the European elections the LDs won the former and the Brexit Party won the latter

Uxbridge & South Ruislip is an interesting constituency, though: the Lib Dems are nowhere and (as you've just said) it's quite susceptible to the Brexit Party.

2017 was Con 50.8%, Lab 40.0%, LD 3.9%, UKIP 3.4%, Green 1.9%.

At the next GE I think you can assume the Lib Dems won't really campaign there - they have limited resources and much more tempting targets elsewhere in London. Demographically the seat is friendlier to Labour than the Lib Dems. So the Labour vote will see a little bit of seepage to LD and Green, but it will largely hold up.

The Conservative vote, however, has two ways to go: Brexit Party or LD. Whatever has happened by the time of the next GE, a significant chunk of that vote is likely to be pissed off. If we've left, some will go LD, potentially some BXP depending on the shape of the deal. If we haven't, some will go LD, lots will go BXP. BXP only have to get 11% (half their current polling) from Boris for him to lose his seat.

So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

I’ll lay you evens. How much?

John Prescott punched a man for throwing an egg. As we discussed last night one punch can kill someone. He was cheered for his reaction.

Field has escorted someone out. She wasn't endangered with a punch.

Dura_Ace said:

https://twitter.com/MarkFieldUK/status/1126432512727764992

LOL. What a twat.

If you follow the link his speech contains so many platitudes at odds with his actual behaviour, it's like shooting fish in a barrel. For instance:

"the UK remains committed to helping women all over the world to feel safe in the work they do, so that they can speak freely and be part of the change we all want."

Or

"we want a world in which... those fighting to improve human rights can do so without fear of discrimination, violence or intimidation."

Or

"human rights defenders often operate in the most difficult environments, and by exposing issues that the powerful would prefer to keep hidden, their work puts them in constant danger."

Oh dear.

El_Capitano said:

HYUFD said:

Mysticrose said:

So the clock is ticking down to the Brecon & Radnor count. Are we about to see the Tory-DUP working majority slip another 1, soon to be 2 after the by-election?

And in other news, for those who proclaimed that Boris will be safe in Uxbridge just LOOK at that Merton result posted earlier. I think the LibDems may storm London at the General Election. I'd love a flutter on Boris losing his own seat.

Merton voted Remain, Hillingdon and Uxbridge voted Leave.

In the European elections the LDs won the former and the Brexit Party won the latter

Uxbridge & South Ruislip is an interesting constituency, though: the Lib Dems are nowhere and (as you've just said) it's quite susceptible to the Brexit Party.

2017 was Con 50.8%, Lab 40.0%, LD 3.9%, UKIP 3.4%, Green 1.9%.

At the next GE I think you can assume the Lib Dems won't really campaign there - they have limited resources and much more tempting targets elsewhere in London. Demographically the seat is friendlier to Labour than the Lib Dems. So the Labour vote will see a little bit of seepage to LD and Green, but it will largely hold up.

The Conservative vote, however, has two ways to go: Brexit Party or LD. Whatever has happened by the time of the next GE, a significant chunk of that vote is likely to be pissed off. If we've left, some will go LD, potentially some BXP depending on the shape of the deal. If we haven't, some will go LD, lots will go BXP. BXP only have to get 11% (half their current polling) from Boris for him to lose his seat.

So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

If Boris can secure Brexit within six months, say, its salience as an issue should begin to decline. By 2022 perhaps normal party politics will have been restored, with only a small number of diehards still obsessed with the EU.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Dura_Ace said:

https://twitter.com/MarkFieldUK/status/1126432512727764992

LOL. What a twat.

If you follow the link his speech contains so many platitudes at odds with his actual behaviour, it's like shooting fish in a barrel. For instance:

"the UK remains committed to helping women all over the world to feel safe in the work they do, so that they can speak freely and be part of the change we all want."

Or

"we want a world in which... those fighting to improve human rights can do so without fear of discrimination, violence or intimidation."

Or

"human rights defenders often operate in the most difficult environments, and by exposing issues that the powerful would prefer to keep hidden, their work puts them in constant danger."

Oh dear.

These protestors weren't human rights defenders.

PeterC said:

El_Capitano said:

HYUFD said:

Mysticrose said:

So the clock is ticking down to the Brecon & Radnor count. Are we about to see the Tory-DUP working majority slip another 1, soon to be 2 after the by-election?

And in other news, for those who proclaimed that Boris will be safe in Uxbridge just LOOK at that Merton result posted earlier. I think the LibDems may storm London at the General Election. I'd love a flutter on Boris losing his own seat.

Merton voted Remain, Hillingdon and Uxbridge voted Leave.

In the European elections the LDs won the former and the Brexit Party won the latter

Uxbridge & South Ruislip is an interesting constituency, though: the Lib Dems are nowhere and (as you've just said) it's quite susceptible to the Brexit Party.

2017 was Con 50.8%, Lab 40.0%, LD 3.9%, UKIP 3.4%, Green 1.9%.

At the next GE I think you can assume the Lib Dems won't really campaign there - they have limited resources and much more tempting targets elsewhere in London. Demographically the seat is friendlier to Labour than the Lib Dems. So the Labour vote will see a little bit of seepage to LD and Green, but it will largely hold up.

The Conservative vote, however, has two ways to go: Brexit Party or LD. Whatever has happened by the time of the next GE, a significant chunk of that vote is likely to be pissed off. If we've left, some will go LD, potentially some BXP depending on the shape of the deal. If we haven't, some will go LD, lots will go BXP. BXP only have to get 11% (half their current polling) from Boris for him to lose his seat.

So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

If Boris can secure Brexit within six months, say, its salience as an issue should begin to decline. By 2022 perhaps normal party politics will have been restored, with only a small number of diehards still obsessed with the EU.

Certainly possible. But I doubt Boris (or Hunt, for that matter) can sustain an HoC majority to 2022.

Daily Mail: "A protester forcefully grabbed by Tory MP Mark Field at a dinner for City grandees is a rabbit wool knitter"

That's a job new to me. Do rabbits even have wool?

rottenborough said:

Daily Mail: "A protester forcefully grabbed by Tory MP Mark Field at a dinner for City grandees is a rabbit wool knitter"

That's a job new to me. Do rabbits even have wool?

Angora.

rottenborough said:

Daily Mail: "A protester forcefully grabbed by Tory MP Mark Field at a dinner for City grandees is a rabbit wool knitter"

That's a job new to me. Do rabbits even have wool?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angora_wool

GIN1138 said:

Rory would have sat down with her, held her hand and talked through all of her concerns.

That would have been the pro response.

Philip_Thompson said:

The voice of sanity.

Seriously if you invade someone else's space then being escorted out is reasonable. He didn't punch her or anything like that.

Have you watched the full 30 second clip?

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The voice of sanity.

Seriously if you invade someone else's space then being escorted out is reasonable. He didn't punch her or anything like that.

Have you watched the full 30 second clip?

Intruder gets past security is heading to the Chancellor, gets stopped and escorted out. That clip?

In the USA she could have been shot.

GIN1138 said:

What was the upshot of the recall petition in Brecon?

Still counting

AlastairMeeks said:

rottenborough said:

Daily Mail: "A protester forcefully grabbed by Tory MP Mark Field at a dinner for City grandees is a rabbit wool knitter"

That's a job new to me. Do rabbits even have wool?

Angora.

No she came of her own accord.

Any news from the Brecon & Radnor recall count? I believe it started at 10:00am.

AlastairMeeks said:

rottenborough said:

Daily Mail: "A protester forcefully grabbed by Tory MP Mark Field at a dinner for City grandees is a rabbit wool knitter"

That's a job new to me. Do rabbits even have wool?

Angora.

Tory MP in bust up with fluffy bunny murderer