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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the moment at current prices I’m laying Johnson

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  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    isam said:

    isam said:

    So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

    I’ll lay you evens. How much?
    Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.
    You’re on 👍🏻
    I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,808
    Mr. Dadge, unlikely perhaps, but not impossible.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Timms#Murder_attempt
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited June 2019

    What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.

    It happens every friday and Saturday night in pubs and clubs around the country when those acting like twats are removed from the premises.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

    I’ll lay you evens. How much?
    Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.
    You’re on 👍🏻
    I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.
    Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    A curious incident this morning (I stress that this is nothing to do with the Field thing). A police officer (with EMERGENCY flak jacket, baton, etc.) called and politely said he was there to serve a criminal restraint order on me. I expressed surprise, and he looked a bit confused and asked if I was Martin N*** (I won't put the name here, but nobody I've heard of - however, a letter for him had arrived yesterday which I returned to sender). I said no and suggested he ask my landlord if they'd heard of him. He said "Oh, OK", and went off to ring my landlord's bell.

    On reflection, several thoughts:

    1. He should have asked who I was before announcing that he wanted to serve an order on me. If I had a nervous disposition I might have found it alarming.

    2. On the other hand, he shouldn't have accepted my word that I wasn't Martin N***, and could reasonably have asked for ID.

    3. It's a bit odd that he didn't show me identification himself. Anyone can dress up as an officer.

    All minor stuff, but I do wonder whether I'd have been treated as deferentially if I'd been a black teenager.

    Nick

    no ID ? it was a strippogram :smiley:
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    Daily Mail: "A protester forcefully grabbed by Tory MP Mark Field at a dinner for City grandees is a rabbit wool knitter"

    That's a job new to me. Do rabbits even have wool?

    Angora.

    Tory MP in bust up with fluffy bunny murderer
    Conservative minister struggles with angora management.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    FFS - why does Osborne write Tweets that could easily be misinterpreted.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Maybe Osborne has an interest in the Cities of London seat! It was recently said he wanted to try Kensington at the next election.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.

    It happens every friday and Saturday night in pubs and clubs around the country when those acting like twats are removed from the premises.
    And at Labour Party conferences:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1499466/Heckler-82-who-dared-called-Straw-a-liar-is-held-under-terrorist-law.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Important wicket for england.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    On full pay? I can't recall a minister being suspended before.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Daily Mail: "A protester forcefully grabbed by Tory MP Mark Field at a dinner for City grandees is a rabbit wool knitter"

    That's a job new to me. Do rabbits even have wool?

    I think you might have found the fatal flaw in her plan to save the world.
    If she really cared about the planet she;d lose a few pounds :wink:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited June 2019
    So we have weeks of politicians being attacked (and the reaction on social media is lol) and people joke about throwing acid in their face and then shock and outrage when one reacts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    Intruder gets past security is heading to the Chancellor, gets stopped and escorted out. That clip?

    In the USA she could have been shot.

    Or 'disappeared' if it had been in certain other countries. But the good news is this is Britain.

    "Stopped" is the word doing the heavy lifting for you there.

    Love that phrase - 'doing the heavy lifting'. Came across it on here, never heard it before, can't get enough if it now.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

    I’ll lay you evens. How much?
    Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.
    You’re on 👍🏻
    I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.
    I don't know if it is pride so much as self interest. You'd assume that for example the prime ministers constiuency would be safe from hospital closure proposals for instance. Or that some eager to please junior housing minister wouldnt come up with a plan to build all over the green belt in the PM's home turf.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    GIN1138 said:

    Rory would have sat down with her, held her hand and talked through all of her concerns. :D

    That would have been the pro response.
    He was talking to me yesterday evening. Well, mostly listening, actually. :)

    The photos are a hoot.

    PS I once wrote to Mark Field about one of his constituents who was breaking the law on the minimum wage. Bastard never replied. Perhaps I should have gone to his office and clipped him round the ear to get him to pay attention.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Dura_Ace said:
    If you follow the link his speech contains so many platitudes at odds with his actual behaviour, it's like shooting fish in a barrel. For instance:

    "the UK remains committed to helping women all over the world to feel safe in the work they do, so that they can speak freely and be part of the change we all want."

    Or

    "we want a world in which... those fighting to improve human rights can do so without fear of discrimination, violence or intimidation."

    Or

    "human rights defenders often operate in the most difficult environments, and by exposing issues that the powerful would prefer to keep hidden, their work puts them in constant danger."

    Oh dear.
    These protestors weren't human rights defenders.
    They were Greenpeace activists protesting against the climate emergency, so actually I would say they were defending our right to live in a world not being destroyed by rising temperatures and sea levels. But congratulations, you win today's award for pedantry, always a hard-fought category on PB.
    So in the week that the Chancellor pledged that the UK would be the first (and so far only) major industrial economy in the entire world to have zero carbon emissions these protestors "were defending our right to live ..." how exactly?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tlg86 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What was the upshot of the recall petition in Brecon?

    Still counting
    Presumably the longer the delay the more likely it has succeeded.
    Probably, although it'll depend on the numbers counting the vote.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    JackW said:

    tlg86 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What was the upshot of the recall petition in Brecon?

    Still counting
    Presumably the longer the delay the more likely it has succeeded.
    Probably, although it'll depend on the numbers counting the vote.
    How do numbers count voters? I thought they used real people
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    isam said:

    Daily Mail: "A protester forcefully grabbed by Tory MP Mark Field at a dinner for City grandees is a rabbit wool knitter"

    That's a job new to me. Do rabbits even have wool?

    Angora.

    Tory MP in bust up with fluffy bunny murderer
    Conservative minister struggles with angora management.
    it made me groan so it must be good!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005

    What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.

    It happens every friday and Saturday night in pubs and clubs around the country when those acting like twats are removed from the premises.
    And at Labour Party conferences:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1499466/Heckler-82-who-dared-called-Straw-a-liar-is-held-under-terrorist-law.html
    Yep, so inconsequential that you're briging it up 14 years later. A point well made.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    https://tinyurl.com/y4nq3b42

    10,005 (19%) signed it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    On topic*

    The case of the cyclist who was ruled against for hitting a woman who was on her phone is an interesting one. It seems that on the one hand she was on her phone and not looking at the road, while on the other he was barrelling down the road while there were people (rightly or wrongly) on the road, of which she was one and that meant she had right of way or precedence. It seems this latter point was germane to the case.

    *just kidding, don't tell me off please @NickPalmer
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    So we have weeks of politicians being attacked (and the reaction on social media is lol) and people joke about throwing acid in their face and then shock and outrage when one reacts.

    TBF the condemnation would have been more muted if he was responding to an attack.

    I think Mark Field knows he behaved badly.

    'Norfolk Passmore's' summary down the thread is IMO a very fair and accurate one.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sky News - Brecon & Radnor heads for by-election as recall vote passes.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993

    GIN1138 said:

    What was the upshot of the recall petition in Brecon?

    Still counting
    Shouldn't they count as the recall votes come in? They could have one of those thermometers like they used to have outside churches so we could see how it was going.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Is Davies going to be the Tory candidate?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Foxy said:

    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

    I’ll lay you evens. How much?
    Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.
    You’re on 👍🏻
    I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.
    Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
    The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Osborne in touch with Londoners concerns judging by the importance allocated to each front page story
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Foxy said:

    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

    I’ll lay you evens. How much?
    Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.
    You’re on 👍🏻
    I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.
    Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
    Oh I don't think the risk to himself will be at the forefront of his thoughts so much as the risk to his govt/party. Certainly I don't think there's any chance of his wanting a GE until the Farage threat has been neutralised.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993
    by-election in Brecon
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    tlg86 said:

    https://tinyurl.com/y4nq3b42

    10,005 (19%) signed it.

    Way more than I expected. Looks like almost all recall petitions will be successful.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    Mr. Dadge, unlikely perhaps, but not impossible.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Timms#Murder_attempt

    That's the wrong way round.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    Dura_Ace said:
    If you follow the link his speech contains so many platitudes at odds with his actual behaviour, it's like shooting fish in a barrel. For instance:

    "the UK remains committed to helping women all over the world to feel safe in the work they do, so that they can speak freely and be part of the change we all want."

    Or

    "we want a world in which... those fighting to improve human rights can do so without fear of discrimination, violence or intimidation."

    Or

    "human rights defenders often operate in the most difficult environments, and by exposing issues that the powerful would prefer to keep hidden, their work puts them in constant danger."

    Oh dear.
    These protestors weren't human rights defenders.
    They were Greenpeace activists protesting against the climate emergency, so actually I would say they were defending our right to live in a world not being destroyed by rising temperatures and sea levels. But congratulations, you win today's award for pedantry, always a hard-fought category on PB.
    So in the week that the Chancellor pledged that the UK would be the first (and so far only) major industrial economy in the entire world to have zero carbon emissions these protestors "were defending our right to live ..." how exactly?
    They were drawing attention to the most pressing issue of our time in a reasonable and nonviolent fashion. They even put on nice frocks so as not to upset the chichi vibe. I don't think they deserved to be body slammed by a pumped up Tory MP.
    Greenpeace would no doubt say that whatever the UK has promised is not enough, and they are probably right.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tlg86 said:

    Is Davies going to be the Tory candidate?

    Only if 160,00 other Conservative contenders pull out.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Foxy said:

    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

    I’ll lay you evens. How much?
    Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.
    You’re on 👍🏻
    I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.
    Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
    The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.
    11.5%. Alternatively, 3% of the country used to be fascist but no longer are.

    Also, fewer.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    JackW said:

    Sky News - Brecon & Radnor heads for by-election as recall vote passes.

    I wonder if he'll stand in the By Election.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    JackW said:

    Sky News - Brecon & Radnor heads for by-election as recall vote passes.

    LD winning there? They presumably start favorite, Jack?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815

    What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.

    The voice of sanity.

    Seriously if you invade someone else's space then being escorted out is reasonable. He didn't punch her or anything like that.
    I'm getting seriously worried about this but I agree with you again. When I read the report it sounded awful, but what I saw seemed ok to me. He wasn't violent, but just held her and then escorted her out. She must have expected to be removed. He didn't hold her in a way that would have been too familiar. If he had held her arms tight it could have caused bruising. I'm obviously missing something but what he did seemed effective with minimum trauma.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tlg86 said:

    Is Davies going to be the Tory candidate?

    That would be brave given the size of the recall. The Conservatives must be staring down the barrel of a gun on this one.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.

    It happens every friday and Saturday night in pubs and clubs around the country when those acting like twats are removed from the premises.
    And at Labour Party conferences:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1499466/Heckler-82-who-dared-called-Straw-a-liar-is-held-under-terrorist-law.html
    Yep, so inconsequential that you're briging it up 14 years later. A point well made.
    Well, if you want a more recent example, here you go:

    https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/journalist-ejected-like-sack-of-potatoes-from-jewish-labour-groups-event-with-john-mcdonnell-over-accreditation-dispute/

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

    I’ll lay you evens. How much?
    Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.
    You’re on 👍🏻
    I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.
    I would usually agree. But in this case I think the "important MP premium" is already priced in. Boris already has a few thousand on his majority because he's Boris, previously the Mayor of London, mega-celebrity etc. etc. I don't see that going up any further because he's PM.
  • isam said:

    Osborne in touch with Londoners concerns judging by the importance allocated to each front page story
    The ES runs a lot on knife crime.

    But it's easy to see why the Field probe is top story. It's got a compelling image, which is vital for a front page. It's being talked about around the water-cooler and people have starkly differing opinions as this thread illustrates. It involves a fairly prominent figure in London and UK politics, and has a tangential relationship to the Tory leadership scrap. It's a developing story.

    Of course it's the ES lead today - total no-brainer.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Endillion said:

    Foxy said:

    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

    I’ll lay you evens. How much?
    Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.
    You’re on 👍🏻
    I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.
    Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
    The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.
    11.5%. Alternatively, 3% of the country used to be fascist but no longer are.

    Also, fewer.
    Good point. I like a bit of pedantry, and indeed 11% is even better news!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    tlg86 said:

    https://tinyurl.com/y4nq3b42

    10,005 (19%) signed it.

    Way more than I expected. Looks like almost all recall petitions will be successful.
    the public like kicking out policiticans shocker....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    Is Davies going to be the Tory candidate?

    That would be brave given the size of the recall. The Conservatives must be staring down the barrel of a gun on this one.
    Two thirds of the size of the Peterborough recall. Do you think that's due to the rural nature of the seat or does it suggest the constituents aren't quite as pissed off about it as they were with Onasanya?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    Foxy said:

    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

    I’ll lay you evens. How much?
    Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.
    You’re on 👍🏻
    I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.
    Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
    Four parties within 3% of each other. Should make an FPTP election even more of a lottery than usual.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    So that's another Cons out.

    I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?

    Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...

    Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    kjh said:

    What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.

    The voice of sanity.

    Seriously if you invade someone else's space then being escorted out is reasonable. He didn't punch her or anything like that.
    I'm getting seriously worried about this but I agree with you again. When I read the report it sounded awful, but what I saw seemed ok to me. He wasn't violent, but just held her and then escorted her out. She must have expected to be removed. He didn't hold her in a way that would have been too familiar. If he had held her arms tight it could have caused bruising. I'm obviously missing something but what he did seemed effective with minimum trauma.
    Agreeing with Philip_Thompson is very worrying for you. When will you be calling for the invasion of Calais?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,808
    Mr. Song, if things stay like that *and* the polls are more or less correct.

    Given current turbulence, I'm glad not to have any bets on the next election.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    Foxy said:

    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

    I’ll lay you evens. How much?
    Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.
    You’re on 👍🏻
    I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.
    Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
    Four parties within 3% of each other. Should make an FPTP election even more of a lottery than usual.
    Hopefully it will be the nail in the coffin of a ludicrous system that should have been reformed long ago
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Foxy said:

    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

    I’ll lay you evens. How much?
    Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.
    You’re on 👍🏻
    I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.
    Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
    The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.
    Thick as mince, British schooling isn't what it used to be.

    As for the recall petitions I think they are a great idea and I'm glad they are working.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    New thread folks
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Foxy said:

    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

    I’ll lay you evens. How much?
    Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.
    You’re on 👍🏻
    I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.
    Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
    The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.
    Hold on when was the fieldwork? Does this blow @HYUFD's theory of Boris reclaiming BXP voters back to the fold. I'm sure the number he had was higher than 3% though...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Endillion said:

    Foxy said:

    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

    I’ll lay you evens. How much?
    Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.
    You’re on 👍🏻
    I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.
    Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
    The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.
    11.5%. Alternatively, 3% of the country used to be fascist but no longer are.

    Also, fewer.
    3% fewer fascist? What grammar planet does that come from?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Important wicket for england.

    Abba-tastic as Fernando falls :

    Can you hear the wicket fall Fernando?
    I remember long ago another starry match like this
    In the firelight Fernando
    You were humming to yourself and softly stroked the ball
    You couldn't see the distant Rashid
    And the sounds of cat calls were coming from afar
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    kjh said:

    What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.

    The voice of sanity.

    Seriously if you invade someone else's space then being escorted out is reasonable. He didn't punch her or anything like that.
    I'm getting seriously worried about this but I agree with you again. When I read the report it sounded awful, but what I saw seemed ok to me. He wasn't violent, but just held her and then escorted her out. She must have expected to be removed. He didn't hold her in a way that would have been too familiar. If he had held her arms tight it could have caused bruising. I'm obviously missing something but what he did seemed effective with minimum trauma.
    Agreeing with Philip_Thompson is very worrying for you. When will you be calling for the invasion of Calais?
    Absolument non! Philip wants to hold England at its current borders. And everyone else can F*ck Off.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Brom said:

    Foxy said:

    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

    I’ll lay you evens. How much?
    Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.
    You’re on 👍🏻
    I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.
    Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
    The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.
    Thick as mince, British schooling isn't what it used to be.

    As for the recall petitions I think they are a great idea and I'm glad they are working.
    Anyone still supporting Brexit and calling someone thick as mince is hilarious. Do you still believe in Santa also? (Sorry to break it to you Brexit supporters)
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    TOPPING said:

    Endillion said:

    Foxy said:

    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

    I’ll lay you evens. How much?
    Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.
    You’re on 👍🏻
    I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.
    Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
    The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.
    11.5%. Alternatively, 3% of the country used to be fascist but no longer are.

    Also, fewer.
    3% fewer fascist? What grammar planet does that come from?
    https://me.me/embed/i/8356152
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    TOPPING said:

    kjh said:

    What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.

    The voice of sanity.

    Seriously if you invade someone else's space then being escorted out is reasonable. He didn't punch her or anything like that.
    I'm getting seriously worried about this but I agree with you again. When I read the report it sounded awful, but what I saw seemed ok to me. He wasn't violent, but just held her and then escorted her out. She must have expected to be removed. He didn't hold her in a way that would have been too familiar. If he had held her arms tight it could have caused bruising. I'm obviously missing something but what he did seemed effective with minimum trauma.
    Agreeing with Philip_Thompson is very worrying for you. When will you be calling for the invasion of Calais?
    Absolument non! Philip wants to hold England at its current borders. And everyone else can F*ck Off.
    I think when England was last England it also included Calais, so I thought he might want to claim it. If they refused to cooperate this would be his casus bellend.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    Endillion said:

    Foxy said:

    Dadge said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.

    I’ll lay you evens. How much?
    Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.
    You’re on 👍🏻
    I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.
    Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
    The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.
    11.5%. Alternatively, 3% of the country used to be fascist but no longer are.

    Also, fewer.
    3% fewer fascist? What grammar planet does that come from?
    https://me.me/embed/i/8356152
    Ah Soz. Hadn't seen that v funny.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    kjh said:

    What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.

    The voice of sanity.

    Seriously if you invade someone else's space then being escorted out is reasonable. He didn't punch her or anything like that.
    I'm getting seriously worried about this but I agree with you again. When I read the report it sounded awful, but what I saw seemed ok to me. He wasn't violent, but just held her and then escorted her out. She must have expected to be removed. He didn't hold her in a way that would have been too familiar. If he had held her arms tight it could have caused bruising. I'm obviously missing something but what he did seemed effective with minimum trauma.
    Agreeing with Philip_Thompson is very worrying for you. When will you be calling for the invasion of Calais?
    Absolument non! Philip wants to hold England at its current borders. And everyone else can F*ck Off.
    I think when England was last England it also included Calais, so I thought he might want to claim it. If they refused to cooperate this would be his casus bellend.
    Phil explained to us yesterday that he was happy to hold England's border "as is".
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    There would be something quite amusing about Osborne becoming MP for the City of London.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kjh said:

    What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.

    The voice of sanity.

    Seriously if you invade someone else's space then being escorted out is reasonable. He didn't punch her or anything like that.
    I'm getting seriously worried about this but I agree with you again. When I read the report it sounded awful, but what I saw seemed ok to me. He wasn't violent, but just held her and then escorted her out. She must have expected to be removed. He didn't hold her in a way that would have been too familiar. If he had held her arms tight it could have caused bruising. I'm obviously missing something but what he did seemed effective with minimum trauma.
    Agreeing with Philip_Thompson is very worrying for you. When will you be calling for the invasion of Calais?
    Absolument non! Philip wants to hold England at its current borders. And everyone else can F*ck Off.
    I think when England was last England it also included Calais, so I thought he might want to claim it. If they refused to cooperate this would be his casus bellend.
    Phil explained to us yesterday that he was happy to hold England's border "as is".
    has he started to wear purple yet and claim to be the Son of God?
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is Davies going to be the Tory candidate?

    That would be brave given the size of the recall. The Conservatives must be staring down the barrel of a gun on this one.
    Two thirds of the size of the Peterborough recall. Do you think that's due to the rural nature of the seat or does it suggest the constituents aren't quite as pissed off about it as they were with Onasanya?
    I suspect the emotional triggers to vote aren't quite as strong (both around the nature of the offence and the person). That said, six voting places across a constituency that size isn't much.

    Either way, I agree with Alistair that it would take some courage to readopt him. It's not a nailed on Tory-hold. There's a strong LD presence there, and although there's not much Brexit/UKIP history I think it's a leave area. Tories' best hope is to find a strong mainstream local candidate, probably malleable enough to sign up to whatever the party line ends up being on Brexit while making some nice noises about farmers.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is Davies going to be the Tory candidate?

    That would be brave given the size of the recall. The Conservatives must be staring down the barrel of a gun on this one.
    Two thirds of the size of the Peterborough recall. Do you think that's due to the rural nature of the seat or does it suggest the constituents aren't quite as pissed off about it as they were with Onasanya?
    It could be either of those. But note that both the Conservatives and Labour were working for a recall in Peterborough, while only the Lib Dems were in Brecon & Radnor. That might be part of it.
  • TOPPING said:

    On topic*

    The case of the cyclist who was ruled against for hitting a woman who was on her phone is an interesting one. It seems that on the one hand she was on her phone and not looking at the road, while on the other he was barrelling down the road while there were people (rightly or wrongly) on the road, of which she was one and that meant she had right of way or precedence. It seems this latter point was germane to the case.

    *just kidding, don't tell me off please @NickPalmer

    That was a bog standard negligence and contributory negligence case.

    In the particular circumstances, the judge decided that the cyclist should really have avoided her if he'd been a competent cyclist, and she should really have avoided him if she'd been a competent pedestrian. So the negligence of both contributed to the accident. As it happened, she was the one injured, although the same would have applied if he'd fallen off and broken his collarbone while she'd been unscathed - she'd have owed him for part but not all of the costs incurred.

    It's interesting enough but not in any way groundbreaking law.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Thanks for that Gin. 5th Sept for a 17th Oct election sounds like a plan.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    I'd have carried out a citizens arrest and accordingly used reasonable force to remove the threat and in short order transfer the potential attacker from my lawful custody to the first available constable.

    I think however that 'using reasonable force' does not include grabbing someone by the neck, which is a very stupid and risky (in all senses of that word) thing to do. It's doubly so given he was not security and had no actual standing in the case. I don't think he'll be charged, because it seems unlikely he would be convicted on this evidence, but I reckon he'll be given a very strong telling off.

    At the same time, Greenpeace are a bunch of fat, pompous, hypocritical and often violent toadies who are absolutely unfit to lecture anyone else on violence or over-reaction, so they are unlikely to get much sympathy. Meanwhile Aaron Bastani, who under his real name Aaron Peters has a criminal record for violence and public disorder, is worse.
    It wasn’t “grabbing someone by the neck

    He held the back of her neck with one hand in the standard method to control movement without injuring someone
    He assaulted her several times , a real nasty piece of work, not surprisingly the toffs support him beating up a commoner.
  • flagmanflagman Posts: 2
    I have £2 on Betfair exchange on J. Hunt to win ( small change I know, just learning the ropes ) winning £25 , what do I do now ? Thanks for any answers.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    flagman said:

    I have £2 on Betfair exchange on J. Hunt to win ( small change I know, just learning the ropes ) winning £25 , what do I do now ? Thanks for any answers.

    First off get yourself over to the other thread as this one is not currently current!!

    Welcome!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    flagman said:

    I have £2 on Betfair exchange on J. Hunt to win ( small change I know, just learning the ropes ) winning £25 , what do I do now ? Thanks for any answers.

    Welcome, @flagman. Depends what you want to achieve! It’s probably worth asking on the new thread about the by-election, otherwise your post here might get lost.
This discussion has been closed.