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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s first battle as PM with the BXP looks set to be at B

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s first battle as PM with the BXP looks set to be at Brecon & Radnor within a week of him getting the job

At 5pm today the six recall petition centres across the B&R constituency will close their doors and late tomorrow morning the sitting CON MP will learn whether or not 10% of those on the electoral roll have signed the petition demanding his recall. If the total tops the required number then the Speaker will be informed formally and a vacancy will be declared.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,134
    Farage doesn't need to win here necessarily. If he can damage the Tory candidate enough that another party wins he will have proved his influence, and the clamour for a Brexit Party - Tory party alliance will continue.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,492
    1 LD
    2 Tory

    I think
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,904
    edited June 2019
    If the Blue meanies lose the seat then it’ll end the clamour for an early general election under ‘election winner’ Boris.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,842

    If the Blue meanies lose the seat then it’ll end the clamour for an early general election under ‘election winner’ Boris.

    Not if the election is due to be held on August 1st and Boris successfully calls a general election in the week before that.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Depends on the candidates I guess.

    No doubt Farage will be too frit to stand.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526
    All MPs elected in 2017 pledging to implement Brexit but then refusing to do so should be subject to recall. After all, what is that if not a fraud on the voters?
  • eek said:

    If the Blue meanies lose the seat then it’ll end the clamour for an early general election under ‘election winner’ Boris.

    Not if the election is due to be held on August 1st and Boris successfully calls a general election in the week before that.
    A general election before August 1st would have to be called by the middle of next week.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    TGOHF said:

    Depends on the candidates I guess.

    No doubt Farage will be too frit to stand.

    He’s too busy showing his new MEPs how to fill in their expenses.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    pah Jack you big softie

    if MPs refer the vote back to the electorate they should face a life-time ban on standing for office as they have shown themselves incapable of doing their job.

    I apologise Field Marshal for a temporary moment of weakness .... :disappointed:
  • eekeek Posts: 15,842
    edited June 2019

    eek said:

    If the Blue meanies lose the seat then it’ll end the clamour for an early general election under ‘election winner’ Boris.

    Not if the election is due to be held on August 1st and Boris successfully calls a general election in the week before that.
    A general election before August 1st would have to be called by the middle of next week.
    What happens if on July 24th Boris calls an election for September 12th?

    Which I suspect is the case as I will be in Barbados that week and utterly unable to bet..
  • All MPs elected in 2017 pledging to implement Brexit but then refusing to do so should be subject to recall. After all, what is that if not a fraud on the voters?

    Wouldn’t apply to Labour, their manifesto ruled out a no deal Brexit, nor did they commit to a March 2019 Brexit.

    Also can we recall Boris and Gove as they said No Deal was Project Fear, that was a fraud on the voters.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    If the Blue meanies lose the seat then it’ll end the clamour for an early general election under ‘election winner’ Boris.

    Not if the election is due to be held on August 1st and Boris successfully calls a general election in the week before that.
    A general election before August 1st would have to be called by the middle of next week.
    What happens if on July 24th Boris calls an election for September 12th?

    Which I suspect is the case as I will be in Barbados that week and able to bet..
    He can’t. Parliament would be on their summer holidays.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Unlike OGH, I'd not describe Boris as an arch-Brexiteer, even if he is posing as one.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    No worries ! Just believe in Brexit . There sorted !
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,541
    Clearly a risk of the election falling into his honeymoon, assuming he gets one. You’d expect he would, simply from the relief of his predecessor stepping down, as indeed did both Brown and May when they assumed office. The only counter-argument I can see is that Boris is so well known and already exposed that he won’t seem new. But my guess is that there will still be some interest and excitement to see how he performs in the top job.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,509
    edited June 2019
    Pre Boris I would expect the LDs to win the seat as like Peterborough the Brexit Party will split the Tory vote in this Leave voting seat.

    However if Boris does indeed win the Tory leadership and become PM just before the by election then I think the Tories could hold it by winning back Brexit Party voters and if they have a local farmer as the candidate
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    eek said:

    If the Blue meanies lose the seat then it’ll end the clamour for an early general election under ‘election winner’ Boris.

    Not if the election is due to be held on August 1st and Boris successfully calls a general election in the week before that.
    A general election before August 1st would have to be called by the middle of next week.
    Checks Mike Smithson's holiday schedule ....
  • JackW said:

    eek said:

    If the Blue meanies lose the seat then it’ll end the clamour for an early general election under ‘election winner’ Boris.

    Not if the election is due to be held on August 1st and Boris successfully calls a general election in the week before that.
    A general election before August 1st would have to be called by the middle of next week.
    Checks Mike Smithson's holiday schedule ....
    First two and a half weeks of September.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    rkrkrk said:

    Farage doesn't need to win here necessarily. If he can damage the Tory candidate enough that another party wins he will have proved his influence, and the clamour for a Brexit Party - Tory party alliance will continue.

    No, but he needs to run and achieve a respectable* result - the changing tiggers show what happens to parties that don't fight elections.

    * They can probably come third - ahead of Labour and Plaid Cymru - and that would be plenty good enough.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,842
    edited June 2019

    eek said:

    eek said:

    If the Blue meanies lose the seat then it’ll end the clamour for an early general election under ‘election winner’ Boris.

    Not if the election is due to be held on August 1st and Boris successfully calls a general election in the week before that.
    A general election before August 1st would have to be called by the middle of next week.
    What happens if on July 24th Boris calls an election for September 12th?

    Which I suspect is the case as I will be in Barbados that week and able to bet..
    He can’t. Parliament would be on their summer holidays.
    If those holidays aren't cancelled Boris is going to have to deliver Brexit with Parliament as it currently is.

    That's going to be fun to watch...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    If Boris needs a vote for no deal he could of course step aside for the Brexit party.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Gove out to 32 - is he about to be the latest victim of vote loaning ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    eek said:

    If the Blue meanies lose the seat then it’ll end the clamour for an early general election under ‘election winner’ Boris.

    Not if the election is due to be held on August 1st and Boris successfully calls a general election in the week before that.
    A general election before August 1st would have to be called by the middle of next week.
    Checks Mike Smithson's holiday schedule ....
    First two and a half weeks of September.
    There we have it. Some monumental political earthquake in the first half of September. PBers you have been warned.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    Is this petition really likely to succeed? It seems to me that this was pretty technical without any of the moral opprobrium of Peterborough.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,886
    edited June 2019
    You and I may as well change our names to Cassandra for all the good it will do.

    None so deaf etc.....

    I feel a bit like I did before my bank bosses finally realised that the various scandals they were dealing with were not one-offs, poo-poohing my repeated warnings that there were underlying and serious problems. Then - eventually - it was "Oh you were right! It is a mess. "

    When will the "No shit Sherlock!" moment happen here I wonder.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883
    edited June 2019
    nico67 said:

    No worries ! Just believe in Brexit . There sorted !
    Beat me to it. :D
  • TGOHF said:

    Gove out to 32 - is he about to be the latest victim of vote loaning ?

    Yup.

    Gove then Javid.

    Boris really doesn’t want Javid to make the final two as he’d spend the next month having to denounce supporters who came out with Islamophobic comments.

    Gove is the only one who could beat Boris with the members.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526
    TGOHF said:

    Gove out to 32 - is he about to be the latest victim of vote loaning ?

    That was the suggestion on Radio 4 this morning.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,509
    edited June 2019
    TGOHF said:

    If Boris needs a vote for no deal he could of course step aside for the Brexit party.

    Boris needs a vote for a FTA for GB and backstop for NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border and to show he can have a chance of a majority to deliver that and sideline the DUP
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526

    All MPs elected in 2017 pledging to implement Brexit but then refusing to do so should be subject to recall. After all, what is that if not a fraud on the voters?

    Wouldn’t apply to Labour, their manifesto ruled out a no deal Brexit, nor did they commit to a March 2019 Brexit.

    Also can we recall Boris and Gove as they said No Deal was Project Fear, that was a fraud on the voters.
    Labour MPs have had multiple opportunities to approve the WA without no deal.....

    Recall the lot of them.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,042
    Ed Milliband on the Beeb makes an excellent point about the Brexit referendum. If you buy a house you can pull out when you see a dodgy surveyors report.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    TGOHF said:

    Depends on the candidates I guess.

    No doubt Farage will be too frit to stand.

    He'd be a shit constituency MP, surely the BXP must have someone with a solid local record, maybe an ex-tory local council member or the like ?
  • Cyclefree said:

    You and I may as well change our names to Cassandra for all the good it will do.

    None so deaf etc.....

    I feel a bit like I did before my bank bosses finally realised that the various scandals they were dealing with were not one-offs, poo-poohing my repeated warnings that there were underlying and serious problems. Then - eventually - it was "Oh you were right! It is a mess. "

    When will the "No shit Sherlock!" moment happen here I wonder.
    It’ll dawn on the No Dealers when the voters start building scaffolds for the Leavers.

    I mean will the country keep calm and carry on when their loved ones start to die because of No Deal?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,509
    TGOHF said:

    Gove out to 32 - is he about to be the latest victim of vote loaning ?

    I doubt if any Boris loans went to Gove, they would have gone to Hunt or Javid.

    I also suspect Gove will pick up a lot of Stewart votes and a fair number of Javid votes
  • All MPs elected in 2017 pledging to implement Brexit but then refusing to do so should be subject to recall. After all, what is that if not a fraud on the voters?

    Wouldn’t apply to Labour, their manifesto ruled out a no deal Brexit, nor did they commit to a March 2019 Brexit.

    Also can we recall Boris and Gove as they said No Deal was Project Fear, that was a fraud on the voters.
    Labour MPs have had multiple opportunities to approve the WA without no deal.....

    Recall the lot of them.
    But your fellow Leavers said Mrs May’s deal was worse than remaining.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,945

    Unlike OGH, I'd not describe Boris as an arch-Brexiteer, even if he is posing as one.

    The man's a congenital liar. How can you tell the difference?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Gove out to 32 - is he about to be the latest victim of vote loaning ?

    Yup.

    Gove then Javid.

    Boris really doesn’t want Javid to make the final two as he’d spend the next month having to denounce supporters who came out with Islamophobic comments.

    Gove is the only one who could beat Boris with the members.
    Boris fancies Hunt as he is just too boring ?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,509
    edited June 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    You and I may as well change our names to Cassandra for all the good it will do.

    None so deaf etc.....

    I feel a bit like I did before my bank bosses finally realised that the various scandals they were dealing with were not one-offs, poo-poohing my repeated warnings that there were underlying and serious problems. Then - eventually - it was "Oh you were right! It is a mess. "

    When will the "No shit Sherlock!" moment happen here I wonder.
    It’ll dawn on the No Dealers when the voters start building scaffolds for the Leavers.

    I mean will the country keep calm and carry on when their loved ones start to die because of No Deal?
    As opposed to those they will build for the diehard Remainers blocking Brexit if we never actually Leave?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,615


    He can’t. Parliament would be on their summer holidays.

    Can't he get them to hang around until the leadership election is done? If it looks like the members' ballot will be a formality, presumably the current government would be accommodating .
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    DavidL said:

    Is this petition really likely to succeed? It seems to me that this was pretty technical without any of the moral opprobrium of Peterborough.

    I think the petition vote in Peterborough was 27%, so you are probably right, and the percentage of signatures will be a lot lower in B&R, and yet it might still get past the 10% threshold.

    My central estimate is 9% - too close to call.
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Gove out to 32 - is he about to be the latest victim of vote loaning ?

    Yup.

    Gove then Javid.

    Boris really doesn’t want Javid to make the final two as he’d spend the next month having to denounce supporters who came out with Islamophobic comments.

    Gove is the only one who could beat Boris with the members.
    Boris fancies Hunt as he is just too boring ?

    No, he backed Remain, which the members don’t like.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Gove out to 32 - is he about to be the latest victim of vote loaning ?

    I doubt if any Boris loans went to Gove, they would have gone to Hunt or Javid.

    I also suspect Gove will pick up a lot of Stewart votes and a fair number of Javid votes
    I meant that Boris will lend votes to Javid/Hunt to eliminate Gove today.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,842
    edited June 2019
    DavidL said:

    Is this petition really likely to succeed? It seems to me that this was pretty technical without any of the moral opprobrium of Peterborough.

    The Lib Dems have been campaigning for it so it's more likely to succeed than the failed NI petition. However it's a rural constituency so signing the petition may have been more hassle for constituents than it would be elsewhere..

    Given how close the NI petition was I suspect it will be successfully though.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,199
    'But will Farage want to do something that would undermine arch-Brexiteer Boris so early on in his new job?'

    That's precisely what he'd want to do. Nigel's mission isn't to assist the Tories, whatever the Brexit posturing of their leader - it's to destroy them utterly.

  • He can’t. Parliament would be on their summer holidays.

    Can't he get them to hang around until the leadership election is done? If it looks like the members' ballot will be a formality, presumably the current government would be accommodating .
    If Parliament hung around for later there’s the chance Parliament would likely VONC a Boris Johnson government.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Cyclefree said:

    You and I may as well change our names to Cassandra for all the good it will do.

    None so deaf etc.....

    I feel a bit like I did before my bank bosses finally realised that the various scandals they were dealing with were not one-offs, poo-poohing my repeated warnings that there were underlying and serious problems. Then - eventually - it was "Oh you were right! It is a mess. "

    When will the "No shit Sherlock!" moment happen here I wonder.
    It’ll dawn on the No Dealers when the voters start building scaffolds for the Leavers.

    I mean will the country keep calm and carry on when their loved ones start to die because of No Deal?
    They won’t believe it until it happens, when it does they will blame the EU for not giving us unicorns. I suppose building scaffolds may focus minds but even then it ‘would be a price worth paying’ I wish I knew what they actually wanted
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Is this petition really likely to succeed? It seems to me that this was pretty technical without any of the moral opprobrium of Peterborough.

    The Lib Dems have been campaigning for it so it's more likely to succeed than the failed NI petition. However it's a rural constituency so signing the petition may have been more hassle for constituents than it would be elsewhere..

    Given how close the NI petition was I suspect it will be successfully though.
    Given they were sent postal votes if registered then if minded they will vote. There will be a by-election and would expect the Lib Dems to do well.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,217
    nichomar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    You and I may as well change our names to Cassandra for all the good it will do.

    None so deaf etc.....

    I feel a bit like I did before my bank bosses finally realised that the various scandals they were dealing with were not one-offs, poo-poohing my repeated warnings that there were underlying and serious problems. Then - eventually - it was "Oh you were right! It is a mess. "

    When will the "No shit Sherlock!" moment happen here I wonder.
    It’ll dawn on the No Dealers when the voters start building scaffolds for the Leavers.

    I mean will the country keep calm and carry on when their loved ones start to die because of No Deal?
    They won’t believe it until it happens, when it does they will blame the EU for not giving us unicorns. I suppose building scaffolds may focus minds but even then it ‘would be a price worth paying’ I wish I knew what they actually wanted
    They want someone else to blame. That's the entire lesson of Brexit: it's about how we're not taking responsibility for our own actions, and blaming the others : whether the 'others' are the EU, immigrants or remainers.

    It's always someone else's fault.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,842
    edited June 2019


    He can’t. Parliament would be on their summer holidays.

    Can't he get them to hang around until the leadership election is done? If it looks like the members' ballot will be a formality, presumably the current government would be accommodating .
    If Parliament hung around for later there’s the chance Parliament would likely VONC a Boris Johnson government.
    And if Parliament doesn't hang around Boris will have to deliver Brexit with the existing Parliament. Labour is committed to No No Deal Brexit and could easily argue that avoiding No Deal overrides an election that might deliver it accidently..

    And forcing an election in early December after Boris has failed to deliver anything by October 31st would be worthwhile for them..
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,945

    TGOHF said:

    Gove out to 32 - is he about to be the latest victim of vote loaning ?

    Yup.

    Gove then Javid.

    Boris really doesn’t want Javid to make the final two as he’d spend the next month having to denounce supporters who came out with Islamophobic comments.

    Gove is the only one who could beat Boris with the members.
    It's all very exciting in an Iagoish sort of way. If only Gove could find a really devious way to get back into the contest.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Fenman said:

    Ed Milliband on the Beeb makes an excellent point about the Brexit referendum. If you buy a house you can pull out when you see a dodgy surveyors report.

    Dodgy report or dodgy surveyor?

    BREXIT voters will see the "dodgy surveyors report" as akin to a LibDem bar chart, and round and round we go.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,239
    However currently:

    Leavers feel they have been wrongly deprived of result of 1st ref, boosting Farage and parties of far right.
    Relationship with EU already much more distant and possibly irretrievably damaged.
    Labour is hugely weakened.

    What's the good lord's nostrum to sort that out?

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Good morning. Hunt to go out in the next round might be value.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159824743
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,615


    If Parliament hung around for later there’s the chance Parliament would likely VONC a Boris Johnson government.

    That also sounds like fun, and something everyone would rather do sooner rather than later. Does anybody benefit from Boris hanging around all summer like a bad smell?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,591
    JackW said:

    Fenman said:

    Ed Milliband on the Beeb makes an excellent point about the Brexit referendum. If you buy a house you can pull out when you see a dodgy surveyors report.

    Dodgy report or dodgy surveyor?

    BREXIT voters will see the "dodgy surveyors report" as akin to a LibDem bar chart, and round and round we go.
    Wasn't invoking A50 the equivalent of exchange? So if we pull out now we forfeit our deposit?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,591
    AndyJS said:

    Good morning. Hunt to go out in the next round might be value.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159824743

    Not if BoJo wants him in
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883

    However currently:

    Leavers feel they have been wrongly deprived of result of 1st ref, boosting Farage and parties of far right.
    Relationship with EU already much more distant and possibly irretrievably damaged.
    Labour is hugely weakened.

    What's the good lord's nostrum to sort that out?

    Consequently, Britain now has arguably the most vocal and passionate pro-EU contingent of any EU country also.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883

    JackW said:

    Fenman said:

    Ed Milliband on the Beeb makes an excellent point about the Brexit referendum. If you buy a house you can pull out when you see a dodgy surveyors report.

    Dodgy report or dodgy surveyor?

    BREXIT voters will see the "dodgy surveyors report" as akin to a LibDem bar chart, and round and round we go.
    Wasn't invoking A50 the equivalent of exchange? So if we pull out now we forfeit our deposit?
    Could sue the seller for misrepresentation.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    All MPs elected in 2017 pledging to implement Brexit but then refusing to do so should be subject to recall. After all, what is that if not a fraud on the voters?

    I believe the original promise on the recall mechanism was that constituents would be able to initiate them at will. I certainly wasn't happy when the Coalition mysteriously decided to back away from that promise.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,509
    edited June 2019
    eek said:


    He can’t. Parliament would be on their summer holidays.

    Can't he get them to hang around until the leadership election is done? If it looks like the members' ballot will be a formality, presumably the current government would be accommodating .
    If Parliament hung around for later there’s the chance Parliament would likely VONC a Boris Johnson government.
    And if Parliament doesn't hang around Boris will have to deliver Brexit with the existing Parliament. Labour is committed to No No Deal Brexit and could easily argue that avoiding No Deal overrides an election that might deliver it accidently..

    And forcing an election in early December after Boris has failed to deliver anything by October 31st would be worthwhile for them..
    Forcing an election in December after Corbyn has thus enabled Brexit by failing to push a general election and then EUref2 before October could see the LDs overtake Labour at that general election due to Remainers furious with Corbyn defecting to the yellows to try and ensure Brexit is reversed or we rejoin the single market
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,591

    JackW said:

    Fenman said:

    Ed Milliband on the Beeb makes an excellent point about the Brexit referendum. If you buy a house you can pull out when you see a dodgy surveyors report.

    Dodgy report or dodgy surveyor?

    BREXIT voters will see the "dodgy surveyors report" as akin to a LibDem bar chart, and round and round we go.
    Wasn't invoking A50 the equivalent of exchange? So if we pull out now we forfeit our deposit?
    Could sue the seller for misrepresentation.
    we misrepresented ourselves, surely. The EU said this would be a cl**********
  • Roger said:

    Unlike OGH, I'd not describe Boris as an arch-Brexiteer, even if he is posing as one.

    The man's a congenital liar. How can you tell the difference?
    Bit harsh on OGH, even though he is a Lib Dem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,509
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Gove out to 32 - is he about to be the latest victim of vote loaning ?

    I doubt if any Boris loans went to Gove, they would have gone to Hunt or Javid.

    I also suspect Gove will pick up a lot of Stewart votes and a fair number of Javid votes
    I meant that Boris will lend votes to Javid/Hunt to eliminate Gove today.
    He needs to eliminate Gove at 1pm then, if not a lot of Javid voters go to Gove at 6pm and indeed some Boris backing ERG voters could vote Gove to ensure an all Leaver final 2
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    "With many MPs going back to their constituencies on Thursday afternoon, as many as 25% of votes today are expected to be by proxy. One person who will definitely be voting by proxy is Theresa May who’s heading off to Brussels for another EU summit. 1922 Committee Vice-Chair Charles Walker has been entrusted with her vote…

    With the unpredictable factor of Rory Stewart now out of the race, the talk this morning is that Team Boris is now on maneouvres to take out Gove by pushing the Saj through at his expense."

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/20/tory-leadership-decision-day/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,477
    But will Farage want to do something that would undermine arch-Brexiteer Boris so early on in his new job?

    A resounding YES surely?

    Farage will want to undermine Johnson in any way he can.

    They are rivals for the ignorami vote.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,364
    Morning all :)

    I'm still to see the Conservative Party pivoting fully to No Deal. The latest "wizard wheeze" or line of thinking seems to be once Boris Johnson is ensconced in No.10 to go to the country almost immediately as a way of changing the Parliamentary arithmetic.

    Okay - fine - but an election needs a manifesto and what manifesto can all Conservatives stand on? We will definitely/probably/may be leaving on 31/10. The problem is going to see which candidates decide not to follow that and go their own way - for example, a Conservative candidate saying he/she could and would never support leaving the EU without a WA.

    The divisions within the Party are only going to be exposed again in an election campaign - I also imagine TBP and Farage are coming up with their own attack lines and frantically seeking to get candidates in as many seats as possible. It will help TBP if the election is all about Brexit - I suspect TBP's divisions on other issues would come into play on other subjects.

    Let's be honest - if a GE was a risk for a party on 45%, it's even more so for a Party on 21%. A couple of polls seemed to have convinced some there is a landslide waiting but this was the line two years ago as well.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,492
    Imagine the most Bavarian scene possible, Alpen foothills; locals out in traditional garb, houses with flowered wooden balconies. Sound of a brass band ..
    That's where I am right now.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,842
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:


    He can’t. Parliament would be on their summer holidays.

    Can't he get them to hang around until the leadership election is done? If it looks like the members' ballot will be a formality, presumably the current government would be accommodating .
    If Parliament hung around for later there’s the chance Parliament would likely VONC a Boris Johnson government.
    And if Parliament doesn't hang around Boris will have to deliver Brexit with the existing Parliament. Labour is committed to No No Deal Brexit and could easily argue that avoiding No Deal overrides an election that might deliver it accidently..

    And forcing an election in early December after Boris has failed to deliver anything by October 31st would be worthwhile for them..
    Forcing an election in December after Corbyn has this enabled Brexit could see the LDs overtake Labour at that general election due to Remainers furious with Corbyn defecting to the yellows to try and ensure Brexit is reversed or we rejoin the single market
    Corbyn won't have enabled Brexit - we would still be in limbo as Boris won't have done anything.

    Calling an election just about let's Boris off the hook. By rejecting an election request Boris will have to reveal his plan which would then change the VoNC figures to the extent that his Government will fall.

    For Boris to pull anything off he needs an election without breaking Parliament first and to do that he needs to keep telling everyone contradictory things hoping he isn't found out.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,217
    Pulpstar said:

    Imagine the most Bavarian scene possible, Alpen foothills; locals out in traditional garb, houses with flowered wooden balconies. Sound of a brass band ..
    That's where I am right now.

    A German porn film? ;)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,536
    Pulpstar said:

    Imagine the most Bavarian scene possible, Alpen foothills; locals out in traditional garb, houses with flowered wooden balconies. Sound of a brass band ..
    That's where I am right now.

    Mittenwald ?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883
    What does Farage actually want? A knighthood? A peerage? To be PM?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,598
    I love the last paragraph

    "after a fair trial, you will be hung in the morning" :)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,945

    Roger said:

    Unlike OGH, I'd not describe Boris as an arch-Brexiteer, even if he is posing as one.

    The man's a congenital liar. How can you tell the difference?
    Bit harsh on OGH, even though he is a Lib Dem.
    Shouldn't you be sliding down poles?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,591

    What does Farage actually want? A knighthood? A peerage? To be PM?

    to be in power but not in office
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 534

    What does Farage actually want? A knighthood? A peerage? To be PM?

    He's already got a knighthood courtesy of the Kremlin, remember?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/03/nigel-farage-receives-honorary-knighthood-live-tv/

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,509
    edited June 2019
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:


    He can’t. Parliament would be on their summer holidays.

    Can't he get them to hang around until the leadership election is done? If it looks like the members' ballot will be a formality, presumably the current government would be accommodating .
    If Parliament hung around for later there’s the chance Parliament would likely VONC a Boris Johnson government.
    And if Parliament doesn't hang around Boris will have to deliver Brexit with the existing Parliament. Labour is committed to No No Deal Brexit and could easily argue that avoiding No Deal overrides an election that might deliver it accidently..

    And forcing an election in early December after Boris has failed to deliver anything by October 31st would be worthwhile for them..
    Forcing an election in December after Corbyn has this enabled Brexit could see the LDs overtake Labour at that general election due to Remainers furious with Corbyn defecting to the yellows to try and ensure Brexit is reversed or we rejoin the single market
    Corbyn won't have enabled Brexit - we would still be in limbo as Boris won't have done anything.

    Calling an election just about let's Boris off the hook. By rejecting an election request Boris will have to reveal his plan which would then change the VoNC figures to the extent that his Government will fall.

    For Boris to pull anything off he needs an election without breaking Parliament first and to do that he needs to keep telling everyone contradictory things hoping he isn't found out.
    Of course Boris will have done something as if the Commons has not passed the WA by October Boris would refuse further extension even if the EU offered it (which Macron likely would not) so we would have left with No Deal by then

    The Commons only last week refused to vote to legislate further to try and block No Deal.

    The likely result then would be Leavers largely united behind the Boris led Tory Party with the Brexit Party falling back while Remainers defect to the LDs and a few to the Greens and Corbyn Labour fall to third
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Is this petition really likely to succeed? It seems to me that this was pretty technical without any of the moral opprobrium of Peterborough.

    The Lib Dems have been campaigning for it so it's more likely to succeed than the failed NI petition. However it's a rural constituency so signing the petition may have been more hassle for constituents than it would be elsewhere..

    Given how close the NI petition was I suspect it will be successfully though.
    Voting in person at one of the small number of designated signing places is clearly more difficult in a rural constituency but that impediment does not apply to postal votes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,477
    edited June 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Good morning. Hunt to go out in the next round might be value.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159824743

    No harm in throwing a couple of quid at that.

    However, Johnson v Hunt is the most comfortable for Johnson (who has plenty of votes to play with) and for the party (who do not wish to see Johnson v Gove and the risk of 'drama' that comes with that) - so I am almost certain that this is the outcome that will be engineered.
  • AndyJS said:
    Michael Gove is a Remainer?

    I know she comes out with some bull poop but that’s something epic.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,842
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:


    He can’t. Parliament would be on their summer holidays.

    Can't he get them to hang around until the leadership election is done? If it looks like the members' ballot will be a formality, presumably the current government would be accommodating .
    If Parliament hung around for later there’s the chance Parliament would likely VONC a Boris Johnson government.
    And if Parliament doesn't hang around Boris will have to deliver Brexit with the existing Parliament. Labour is committed to No No Deal Brexit and could easily argue that avoiding No Deal overrides an election that might deliver it accidently..

    And forcing an election in early December after Boris has failed to deliver anything by October 31st would be worthwhile for them..
    Forcing an election in December after Corbyn has this enabled Brexit could see the LDs overtake Labour at that general election due to Remainers furious with Corbyn defecting to the yellows to try and ensure Brexit is reversed or we rejoin the single market
    Corbyn won't have enabled Brexit - we would still be in limbo as Boris won't have done anything.

    Calling an election just about let's Boris off the hook. By rejecting an election request Boris will have to reveal his plan which would then change the VoNC figures to the extent that his Government will fall.

    For Boris to pull anything off he needs an election without breaking Parliament first and to do that he needs to keep telling everyone contradictory things hoping he isn't found out.
    Of course Boris will have done something as if the Commons has not passed the WA by October Boris would refuse further extension even if the EU offered it (which Macron likely would not) so we would have left with No Deal by then

    The Commons only last week refused to vote to legislate further to try and block No Deal.

    The likely result then would be Leavers united behind Boris Remainers defect to the LDs and a few to the Greens and Corbyn Labour fall to third
    The commons still has opportunities to block No Deal - last week wasn't the final chance no matter what others think...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The fact that Tory MPs are having to hand their phones in before voting in order to prove they haven't taken photos of the ballot papers is a bit depressing from the point of view of honesty. Whatever happened to trusting people to do the right thing?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,382
    AndyJS said:
    And the Civil Service think they can trust or control Gove?

    If so they are not living in the same world as us. He is one of the few who would have the diligence to see, understand and know what they were doing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,509
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I'm still to see the Conservative Party pivoting fully to No Deal. The latest "wizard wheeze" or line of thinking seems to be once Boris Johnson is ensconced in No.10 to go to the country almost immediately as a way of changing the Parliamentary arithmetic.

    Okay - fine - but an election needs a manifesto and what manifesto can all Conservatives stand on? We will definitely/probably/may be leaving on 31/10. The problem is going to see which candidates decide not to follow that and go their own way - for example, a Conservative candidate saying he/she could and would never support leaving the EU without a WA.

    The divisions within the Party are only going to be exposed again in an election campaign - I also imagine TBP and Farage are coming up with their own attack lines and frantically seeking to get candidates in as many seats as possible. It will help TBP if the election is all about Brexit - I suspect TBP's divisions on other issues would come into play on other subjects.

    Let's be honest - if a GE was a risk for a party on 45%, it's even more so for a Party on 21%. A couple of polls seemed to have convinced some there is a landslide waiting but this was the line two years ago as well.

    Boris reunites the Leave vote behind him largely while the Remain vote is split unlike 2017 with many 2017 Labour voters now moving LD
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited June 2019

    All MPs elected in 2017 pledging to implement Brexit but then refusing to do so should be subject to recall. After all, what is that if not a fraud on the voters?

    I believe the original promise on the recall mechanism was that constituents would be able to initiate them at will. I certainly wasn't happy when the Coalition mysteriously decided to back away from that promise.
    That would be dangerous unless, for example, you are happy for MPs to be recalled because they disagree with a particular party line. Or that a vocal minority were against a planning application even though it’s not I’m the MPs remit.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,615
    stodge said:


    Okay - fine - but an election needs a manifesto and what manifesto can all Conservatives stand on? We will definitely/probably/may be leaving on 31/10. The problem is going to see which candidates decide not to follow that and go their own way - for example, a Conservative candidate saying he/she could and would never support leaving the EU without a WA.

    I think they'd stand on Renegotiation. It's vague enough that everybody can say they want it. If they want to give it at least a slight air of not-completely-ridiculous-ness they can imply that without needing the DUP, they can do "border in the Irish Sea" types of things rather than swallowing TMay's backstop as is.

    I guess the official line would be that they didn't want No Deal but it was on the table if the EU wouldn't negotiate, and different candidates would put different amounts of stress on different sides of that sentence.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    Imagine the most Bavarian scene possible, Alpen foothills; locals out in traditional garb, houses with flowered wooden balconies. Sound of a brass band ..
    That's where I am right now.

    Sounds lovely. Always wanted to visit Bavaria.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    nichomar said:

    All MPs elected in 2017 pledging to implement Brexit but then refusing to do so should be subject to recall. After all, what is that if not a fraud on the voters?

    I believe the original promise on the recall mechanism was that constituents would be able to initiate them at will. I certainly wasn't happy when the Coalition mysteriously decided to back away from that promise.
    That would be dangerous unless, for example, you are happy for MPs to be recalled because they disagree with a particular party line. Or that a vocal minority were against a planning application even though it’s not I’m the MPs remit.
    I trust the electorate to punish parties that abuse the process and back their MP in the face of frivolous or unjustified attempts to recall them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Mr. Pulpstar, sounds very pleasant. Are there frolicking milkmaids too?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,382
    It would be good if all the nations of the UK, all the religions in the UK, all the cultures in the UK and all of the sexes abided by the same rules had the same chances and oportunities.

    The basis if an equal and fair society.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I'm still to see the Conservative Party pivoting fully to No Deal. The latest "wizard wheeze" or line of thinking seems to be once Boris Johnson is ensconced in No.10 to go to the country almost immediately as a way of changing the Parliamentary arithmetic.

    Okay - fine - but an election needs a manifesto and what manifesto can all Conservatives stand on? We will definitely/probably/may be leaving on 31/10. The problem is going to see which candidates decide not to follow that and go their own way - for example, a Conservative candidate saying he/she could and would never support leaving the EU without a WA.

    The divisions within the Party are only going to be exposed again in an election campaign - I also imagine TBP and Farage are coming up with their own attack lines and frantically seeking to get candidates in as many seats as possible. It will help TBP if the election is all about Brexit - I suspect TBP's divisions on other issues would come into play on other subjects.

    Let's be honest - if a GE was a risk for a party on 45%, it's even more so for a Party on 21%. A couple of polls seemed to have convinced some there is a landslide waiting but this was the line two years ago as well.

    Boris reunites the Leave vote behind him largely while the Remain vote is split unlike 2017 with many 2017 Labour voters now moving LD
    Does he? So Brexit Party will get 0% will they?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,382

    nichomar said:

    All MPs elected in 2017 pledging to implement Brexit but then refusing to do so should be subject to recall. After all, what is that if not a fraud on the voters?

    I believe the original promise on the recall mechanism was that constituents would be able to initiate them at will. I certainly wasn't happy when the Coalition mysteriously decided to back away from that promise.
    That would be dangerous unless, for example, you are happy for MPs to be recalled because they disagree with a particular party line. Or that a vocal minority were against a planning application even though it’s not I’m the MPs remit.
    I trust the electorate to punish parties that abuse the process and back their MP in the face of frivolous or unjustified attempts to recall them.
    If they are a good constituency MP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,509

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I'm still to see the Conservative Party pivoting fully to No Deal. The latest "wizard wheeze" or line of thinking seems to be once Boris Johnson is ensconced in No.10 to go to the country almost immediately as a way of changing the Parliamentary arithmetic.

    Okay - fine - but an election needs a manifesto and what manifesto can all Conservatives stand on? We will definitely/probably/may be leaving on 31/10. The problem is going to see which candidates decide not to follow that and go their own way - for example, a Conservative candidate saying he/she could and would never support leaving the EU without a WA.

    The divisions within the Party are only going to be exposed again in an election campaign - I also imagine TBP and Farage are coming up with their own attack lines and frantically seeking to get candidates in as many seats as possible. It will help TBP if the election is all about Brexit - I suspect TBP's divisions on other issues would come into play on other subjects.

    Let's be honest - if a GE was a risk for a party on 45%, it's even more so for a Party on 21%. A couple of polls seemed to have convinced some there is a landslide waiting but this was the line two years ago as well.

    Boris reunites the Leave vote behind him largely while the Remain vote is split unlike 2017 with many 2017 Labour voters now moving LD
    Does he? So Brexit Party will get 0% will they?
    Brexit Party gets 13% with Boris but down from over 20% now and the Brexit Party fall even further with Comres if Boris is leader. Boris gets the Tory vote back close to 30%
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887
    DavidL said:

    Is this petition really likely to succeed? It seems to me that this was pretty technical without any of the moral opprobrium of Peterborough.

    I'm uncomfortable with recall petitions. If an MP is deemed unfit for for office, because for example a criminal conviction, there should be a process for triggering a by-election. Whether there is a good case for dismissal on grounds of personal conduct or not, it shouldn't be left to the whim of a recall petition IMO.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,974
    AndyJS said:

    The fact that Tory MPs are having to hand their phones in before voting in order to prove they haven't taken photos of the ballot papers is a bit depressing from the point of view of honesty. Whatever happened to trusting people to do the right thing?

    Foul-mouthed Gavin Williamson organiser of the Boris vote. Remember the channel 4 documentary on the Theresa May election and how appallingly he was portrayed .
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,017

    stodge said:


    Okay - fine - but an election needs a manifesto and what manifesto can all Conservatives stand on? We will definitely/probably/may be leaving on 31/10. The problem is going to see which candidates decide not to follow that and go their own way - for example, a Conservative candidate saying he/she could and would never support leaving the EU without a WA.

    I think they'd stand on Renegotiation. It's vague enough that everybody can say they want it. If they want to give it at least a slight air of not-completely-ridiculous-ness they can imply that without needing the DUP, they can do "border in the Irish Sea" types of things rather than swallowing TMay's backstop as is.

    I guess the official line would be that they didn't want No Deal but it was on the table if the EU wouldn't negotiate, and different candidates would put different amounts of stress on different sides of that sentence.
    And the other parties -- what will they stand on?

    A GE is a risk for the Tories, but it is also a risk for every one else.

    Whoever emerges from the election will have to implement a plan. What is Labour's plan?

    The LibDems and the Brexit party do have clear plans -- but the consequences of implementing their plans are very likely to lose votes.

    If the Tories lost, I think they would be content to see a coalition of Labour++ try an implement something. for a year or so.

    The Tories don't have to win GE, they just have to make sure they don't lose too badly. Because an inconclusive GE in 2019 is not likely to be the end of the matter.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    O/T

    Bangladesh 5.5 vs Australia at Trent Bridge. A 21% return by backing Australia seems like free money.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.159351340
This discussion has been closed.