Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s first battle as PM with the BXP looks set to be at B
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s first battle as PM with the BXP looks set to be at Brecon & Radnor within a week of him getting the job
At 5pm today the six recall petition centres across the B&R constituency will close their doors and late tomorrow morning the sitting CON MP will learn whether or not 10% of those on the electoral roll have signed the petition demanding his recall. If the total tops the required number then the Speaker will be informed formally and a vacancy will be declared.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
2 Tory
I think
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/drugs-to-run-short-within-a-fortnight-of-a-no-deal-brexit-2hbzwzsbh
No doubt Farage will be too frit to stand.
Which I suspect is the case as I will be in Barbados that week and utterly unable to bet..
Also can we recall Boris and Gove as they said No Deal was Project Fear, that was a fraud on the voters.
However if Boris does indeed win the Tory leadership and become PM just before the by election then I think the Tories could hold it by winning back Brexit Party voters and if they have a local farmer as the candidate
* They can probably come third - ahead of Labour and Plaid Cymru - and that would be plenty good enough.
That's going to be fun to watch...
None so deaf etc.....
I feel a bit like I did before my bank bosses finally realised that the various scandals they were dealing with were not one-offs, poo-poohing my repeated warnings that there were underlying and serious problems. Then - eventually - it was "Oh you were right! It is a mess. "
When will the "No shit Sherlock!" moment happen here I wonder.
Gove then Javid.
Boris really doesn’t want Javid to make the final two as he’d spend the next month having to denounce supporters who came out with Islamophobic comments.
Gove is the only one who could beat Boris with the members.
Recall the lot of them.
I mean will the country keep calm and carry on when their loved ones start to die because of No Deal?
I also suspect Gove will pick up a lot of Stewart votes and a fair number of Javid votes
Correct.
My central estimate is 9% - too close to call.
Given how close the NI petition was I suspect it will be successfully though.
That's precisely what he'd want to do. Nigel's mission isn't to assist the Tories, whatever the Brexit posturing of their leader - it's to destroy them utterly.
It's always someone else's fault.
And forcing an election in early December after Boris has failed to deliver anything by October 31st would be worthwhile for them..
BREXIT voters will see the "dodgy surveyors report" as akin to a LibDem bar chart, and round and round we go.
Leavers feel they have been wrongly deprived of result of 1st ref, boosting Farage and parties of far right.
Relationship with EU already much more distant and possibly irretrievably damaged.
Labour is hugely weakened.
What's the good lord's nostrum to sort that out?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159824743
With the unpredictable factor of Rory Stewart now out of the race, the talk this morning is that Team Boris is now on maneouvres to take out Gove by pushing the Saj through at his expense."
https://order-order.com/2019/06/20/tory-leadership-decision-day/
A resounding YES surely?
Farage will want to undermine Johnson in any way he can.
They are rivals for the ignorami vote.
I'm still to see the Conservative Party pivoting fully to No Deal. The latest "wizard wheeze" or line of thinking seems to be once Boris Johnson is ensconced in No.10 to go to the country almost immediately as a way of changing the Parliamentary arithmetic.
Okay - fine - but an election needs a manifesto and what manifesto can all Conservatives stand on? We will definitely/probably/may be leaving on 31/10. The problem is going to see which candidates decide not to follow that and go their own way - for example, a Conservative candidate saying he/she could and would never support leaving the EU without a WA.
The divisions within the Party are only going to be exposed again in an election campaign - I also imagine TBP and Farage are coming up with their own attack lines and frantically seeking to get candidates in as many seats as possible. It will help TBP if the election is all about Brexit - I suspect TBP's divisions on other issues would come into play on other subjects.
Let's be honest - if a GE was a risk for a party on 45%, it's even more so for a Party on 21%. A couple of polls seemed to have convinced some there is a landslide waiting but this was the line two years ago as well.
That's where I am right now.
Calling an election just about let's Boris off the hook. By rejecting an election request Boris will have to reveal his plan which would then change the VoNC figures to the extent that his Government will fall.
For Boris to pull anything off he needs an election without breaking Parliament first and to do that he needs to keep telling everyone contradictory things hoping he isn't found out.
"after a fair trial, you will be hung in the morning"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/03/nigel-farage-receives-honorary-knighthood-live-tv/
The Commons only last week refused to vote to legislate further to try and block No Deal.
The likely result then would be Leavers largely united behind the Boris led Tory Party with the Brexit Party falling back while Remainers defect to the LDs and a few to the Greens and Corbyn Labour fall to third
However, Johnson v Hunt is the most comfortable for Johnson (who has plenty of votes to play with) and for the party (who do not wish to see Johnson v Gove and the risk of 'drama' that comes with that) - so I am almost certain that this is the outcome that will be engineered.
I know she comes out with some bull poop but that’s something epic.
https://twitter.com/benjamincohen/status/1141626790605139969?s=21
If so they are not living in the same world as us. He is one of the few who would have the diligence to see, understand and know what they were doing.
I guess the official line would be that they didn't want No Deal but it was on the table if the EU wouldn't negotiate, and different candidates would put different amounts of stress on different sides of that sentence.
The basis if an equal and fair society.
A GE is a risk for the Tories, but it is also a risk for every one else.
Whoever emerges from the election will have to implement a plan. What is Labour's plan?
The LibDems and the Brexit party do have clear plans -- but the consequences of implementing their plans are very likely to lose votes.
If the Tories lost, I think they would be content to see a coalition of Labour++ try an implement something. for a year or so.
The Tories don't have to win GE, they just have to make sure they don't lose too badly. Because an inconclusive GE in 2019 is not likely to be the end of the matter.
Bangladesh 5.5 vs Australia at Trent Bridge. A 21% return by backing Australia seems like free money.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.159351340