politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The favourite always wins the Tory leadership race – eventuall
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The favourite always wins the Tory leadership race – eventually
Conventional wisdom has it that the favourite never wins Tory leadership races. In one sense, this is probably true. I don’t have the historic figures but before every leadership election since the Party moved away from the old Magic Circle method of leaders ‘emerging’, there’s a good case that the person who emerged the winner was not the one seen as most likely to succeed in the period before the election was called.
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Blah0
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Now you tell us!
This poll should be accurate. Lay Rory?
https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1140681238690390017?s=210 -
Haazzzzzzzzzzaahhhh a new thread....where am I....am I late?0
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I see twitter is trying to sack tom watson...0
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The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.
Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?0 -
Boris Johnson isn't the firmest Brexiteer on the ballot paper, he's not even the firmest brexiteer in a room full of remainers.
Boris Johnson believes in Boris Johnson and will believe in whatever he thinks it will take to get elected.
Whether apocryphal or true, the story that he wrote two columns for the telegraph, one for leave and one for remain, on the eve of declaring, speaks volumes.
People say Farage is a spiv and a huckster, but at least you know what he stands for.0 -
Because he knew, like Brown in 1994, that he was going to lose and potentially be humiliated by coming last, wrecking his career.Ishmael_Z said:The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.
Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?
Unfortunately, like Brown in 2007 that doesn't seem to apply this time.0 -
Just completed a fairly comprehensive conhome poll on the various options. It should give a more accurate upto date state of playisam said:Now you tell us!
This poll should be accurate. Lay Rory?
https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1140681238690390017?s=210 -
Yes , he didn’t have to withdraw . Just because Gove pulled his support . I suspect he was hoping someone would sort the mess out and he could then ride in . He’s now realized that he has no choice but to go for it . He’ll never get another chance but the mess is still there .Ishmael_Z said:The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.
Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?0 -
Believing in what ever it takes to get elected did not stop Blair or Cameronkyf_100 said:Boris Johnson isn't the firmest Brexiteer on the ballot paper, he's not even the firmest brexiteer in a room full of remainers.
Boris Johnson believes in Boris Johnson and will believe in whatever he thinks it will take to get elected.
Whether apocryphal or true, the story that he wrote two columns for the telegraph, one for leave and one for remain, on the eve of declaring, speaks volumes.
People say Farage is a spiv and a huckster, but at least you know what he stands for.0 -
Himself as well, tbh...kyf_100 said:Boris Johnson isn't the firmest Brexiteer on the ballot paper, he's not even the firmest brexiteer in a room full of remainers.
Boris Johnson believes in Boris Johnson and will believe in whatever he thinks it will take to get elected.
Whether apocryphal or true, the story that he wrote two columns for the telegraph, one for leave and one for remain, on the eve of declaring, speaks volumes.
People say Farage is a spiv and a huckster, but at least you know what he stands for.0 -
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Also I hear he has shat in the woods.Scott_P said:3 -
Up to a point, Lord Copper. There are two similar rules advising to lay the favourite. One is unique to the Conservative Party (and, by the way, surely Boris was favourite in 2015 when he pulled out). The other is a more general strategy for information-light, long-term markets.
It is true Boris was favourite when May resigned but bookmakers and Betfair opened markets on Theresa May's successor as soon as she was elected. If you'd laid every favourite since then, you'd be well in profit on George Osborne and David Davis, and quite possibly Gove, Hammond and Rees-Mogg as well.0 -
Rory is obviously too short.isam said:Now you tell us!
This poll should be accurate. Lay Rory?
https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1140681238690390017?s=21
His odds only make sense if you think he'll overtake Hunt and Gove to make the final two. And not because he'd then win; because he'd then shorten with Boris beating him 65:35.
If Boris's team have any sense of mathematics they'll be manoeuvring to prevent that.0 -
True. But the last time a favourite at the moment of the leader's resignation became Tory leader was in 1955. Since then in order the favourites have been Butler, Butler, Maudling, Whitelaw, Heseltine, Clarke, Portillo, David Davis (twice) and probably Osborne (although he shouldn't have been).DecrepitJohnL said:Up to a point, Lord Copper. There are two similar rules advising to lay the favourite. One is unique to the Conservative Party (and, by the way, surely Boris was favourite in 2015 when he pulled out). The other is a more general strategy for information-light, long-term markets.
It is true Boris was favourite when May resigned but bookmakers and Betfair opened markets on Theresa May's successor as soon as she was elected. If you'd laid every favourite since then, you'd be well in profit on George Osborne and David Davis, and quite possibly Gove, Hammond and Rees-Mogg as well.0 -
More likely Boris just panicked and made the wrong call in the heat of the moment, much as David Davis seemed to provoke Boris into following him out of the Cabinet.nico67 said:
Yes , he didn’t have to withdraw . Just because Gove pulled his support . I suspect he was hoping someone would sort the mess out and he could then ride in . He’s now realized that he has no choice but to go for it . He’ll never get another chance but the mess is still there .Ishmael_Z said:The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.
Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?0 -
Well that’s encouraging.DecrepitJohnL said:
More likely Boris just panicked and made the wrong call in the heat of the moment, much as David Davis seemed to provoke Boris into following him out of the Cabinet.nico67 said:
Yes , he didn’t have to withdraw . Just because Gove pulled his support . I suspect he was hoping someone would sort the mess out and he could then ride in . He’s now realized that he has no choice but to go for it . He’ll never get another chance but the mess is still there .Ishmael_Z said:The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.
Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?0 -
And Ruth Davidson.DecrepitJohnL said:Up to a point, Lord Copper. There are two similar rules advising to lay the favourite. One is unique to the Conservative Party (and, by the way, surely Boris was favourite in 2015 when he pulled out). The other is a more general strategy for information-light, long-term markets.
It is true Boris was favourite when May resigned but bookmakers and Betfair opened markets on Theresa May's successor as soon as she was elected. If you'd laid every favourite since then, you'd be well in profit on George Osborne and David Davis, and quite possibly Gove, Hammond and Rees-Mogg as well.0 -
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Sound judgement is not a trait often associated with Boris, who famously chose to play cricket and host a barbecue at the start of the last contest.DavidL said:
Well that’s encouraging.DecrepitJohnL said:
More likely Boris just panicked and made the wrong call in the heat of the moment, much as David Davis seemed to provoke Boris into following him out of the Cabinet.nico67 said:
Yes , he didn’t have to withdraw . Just because Gove pulled his support . I suspect he was hoping someone would sort the mess out and he could then ride in . He’s now realized that he has no choice but to go for it . He’ll never get another chance but the mess is still there .Ishmael_Z said:The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.
Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?0 -
An odd way of looking at it. It's ok to petulantly flounce out of a May Cabinet when it does things you don't want, but it is not ok to preemptively recognise that the policies of a Boris Cabinet would not be sustainable for some people.Scott_P said:0 -
Tony?Jonathan said:Blah
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I assume Boris only agreed to the BBC debate tomorrow night on the expectation Rory will be out of the contest by then, though I wouldn't be surprised if he overtakes Javid and makes it until wednesday at least.Casino_Royale said:
Rory is obviously too short.isam said:Now you tell us!
This poll should be accurate. Lay Rory?
https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1140681238690390017?s=21
His odds only make sense if you think he'll overtake Hunt and Gove to make the final two. And not because he'd then win; because he'd then shorten with Boris beating him 65:35.
If Boris's team have any sense of mathematics they'll be manoeuvring to prevent that.0 -
ConHome surveys more accurate than YouGovs now? How things changeBig_G_NorthWales said:
Just completed a fairly comprehensive conhome poll on the various options. It should give a more accurate upto date state of playisam said:Now you tell us!
This poll should be accurate. Lay Rory?
https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1140681238690390017?s=210 -
His wife hadn’t discovered he’d broken his promises again.Ishmael_Z said:The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.
Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?0 -
Of members yes - not votersisam said:
ConHome surveys more accurate than YouGovs now? How things changeBig_G_NorthWales said:
Just completed a fairly comprehensive conhome poll on the various options. It should give a more accurate upto date state of playisam said:Now you tell us!
This poll should be accurate. Lay Rory?
https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1140681238690390017?s=210 -
Whoever makes it tomorrow night, there is the potential for quite a lot of "I am the one BoZo was scared of facing on Sunday..."dodrade said:I assume Boris only agreed to the BBC debate tomorrow night on the expectation Rory will be out of the contest by then, though I wouldn't be surprised if he overtakes Javid and makes it until wednesday at least.
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Yes I think that makes a great deal of sense. May last in place so long because the party hoped somehow it would be sorted and all on her shoulders. I think the panic by which Boris and others finally backed the WA showed they may have overdone it previously and risked Brexit, since the alternative is they are very stupid and did not realise what voting down the WA meant. But they had done too good a job and May too bad a job, so now they have no choice but to take the job and gamble, or never get the job.nico67 said:
Yes , he didn’t have to withdraw . Just because Gove pulled his support . I suspect he was hoping someone would sort the mess out and he could then ride in . He’s now realized that he has no choice but to go for it . He’ll never get another chance but the mess is still there .Ishmael_Z said:The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.
Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?0 -
Brexiteers are about to be bitterly disappointed. Supernova post cognitive dissonance.kyf_100 said:Boris Johnson isn't the firmest Brexiteer on the ballot paper, he's not even the firmest brexiteer in a room full of remainers.
Boris Johnson believes in Boris Johnson and will believe in whatever he thinks it will take to get elected.
Whether apocryphal or true, the story that he wrote two columns for the telegraph, one for leave and one for remain, on the eve of declaring, speaks volumes.
People say Farage is a spiv and a huckster, but at least you know what he stands for.0 -
If you can believe in Brexit, you can and likely will believe in Johnson.kyf_100 said:Boris Johnson isn't the firmest Brexiteer on the ballot paper, he's not even the firmest brexiteer in a room full of remainers.
Boris Johnson believes in Boris Johnson and will believe in whatever he thinks it will take to get elected.
Whether apocryphal or true, the story that he wrote two columns for the telegraph, one for leave and one for remain, on the eve of declaring, speaks volumes.
People say Farage is a spiv and a huckster, but at least you know what he stands for.0 -
Quite right.Scott_P said:0 -
It's not petulant flouncing by Rory but a principled stand based, in part, on not agreeing with his core policy and also, I suspect, on not trusting him one iota and not wanting to serve under an untrustworthy leader.kle4 said:
An odd way of looking at it. It's ok to petulantly flounce out of a May Cabinet when it does things you don't want, but it is not ok to preemptively recognise that the policies of a Boris Cabinet would not be sustainable for some people.Scott_P said:
At the rally tonight Rory made a very gracious tribute to David Gauke and his leadership qualities and what he had learnt from him as a junior Minister.
I think integrity in a leader is something Rory values and something he doesn't see in Boris. Remember he was a junior Minister at one point in the FCO so he probably has personal experience of what Boris is really like.0 -
The YouGov was of members though wasn’t it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Of members yes - not votersisam said:
ConHome surveys more accurate than YouGovs now? How things changeBig_G_NorthWales said:
Just completed a fairly comprehensive conhome poll on the various options. It should give a more accurate upto date state of playisam said:Now you tell us!
This poll should be accurate. Lay Rory?
https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1140681238690390017?s=210 -
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Tomorrow is going to be tough to predict. Javid, Raab and Stewart are all going to be close to the 33 vote threshold IMO.0
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How do they get a representative sample of members? Same for ConHome...isam said:
The YouGov was of members though wasn’t it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Of members yes - not votersisam said:
ConHome surveys more accurate than YouGovs now? How things changeBig_G_NorthWales said:
Just completed a fairly comprehensive conhome poll on the various options. It should give a more accurate upto date state of playisam said:Now you tell us!
This poll should be accurate. Lay Rory?
https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1140681238690390017?s=210 -
What's the timing of tomorrow's vote?0
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Just read Dr Fox's take on the Lib Dem hustings. Disappointing to see that as the Lib Dems re-emerge into the spotlight they appear to be determined to sink into wishy washy platitudes hardly becoming of the times we are in.
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Many English Remain voters will vote for them anyway. They haven’t got a choice.FrankBooth said:Just read Dr Fox's take on the Lib Dem hustings. Disappointing to see that as the Lib Dems re-emerge into the spotlight they appear to be determined to sink into wishy washy platitudes hardly becoming of the times we are in.
Scottish and Welsh Remain voters do have a non-wishy washy alternative, and will largely take it.0 -
To be fair, playing cricket and hosting a barbecue has improved his image somewhat in my eyes, albeit from a desperately low base.DecrepitJohnL said:
Sound judgement is not a trait often associated with Boris, who famously chose to play cricket and host a barbecue at the start of the last contest.DavidL said:
Well that’s encouraging.DecrepitJohnL said:
More likely Boris just panicked and made the wrong call in the heat of the moment, much as David Davis seemed to provoke Boris into following him out of the Cabinet.nico67 said:
Yes , he didn’t have to withdraw . Just because Gove pulled his support . I suspect he was hoping someone would sort the mess out and he could then ride in . He’s now realized that he has no choice but to go for it . He’ll never get another chance but the mess is still there .Ishmael_Z said:The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.
Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?0 -
It's one of those irregular verbs, isn't it?Luckyguy1983 said:
Quite right.Scott_P said:
I make a principled stand.
You get to the end of your tether.
He, she or it petulantly flounces.0 -
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ThanksGIN1138 said:0 -
No-one even vaguely sane would want to work for that bone idle clown, life is too short.Luckyguy1983 said:
Quite right.Scott_P said:0 -
He got that one from May, surely.Scott_P said:0 -
Not really. I'd think the same about Blairites not countenancing working with Corbyn, Corbynites not countenancing working with Blair, ERGers not countenancing working with Rory, etc. I'm also not condoning the resignations from May's cabinet, but it takes an absurd twist of logic to argue that trying it and then resigning is worse than simply refusing to sully your hands.Chris said:
It's one of those irregular verbs, isn't it?Luckyguy1983 said:
Quite right.Scott_P said:
I make a principled stand.
You get to the end of your tether.
He, she or it petulantly flounces.0 -
In general a bone idle clown can be a good boss. They need you._Anazina_ said:
No-one even vaguely sane would want to work for that bone idle clown, life is too short.Luckyguy1983 said:
Quite right.Scott_P said:0 -
And then they fuck up any decent work you do. Take it from me, you don’t want a clown as a boss.Luckyguy1983 said:
In general a bone idle clown can be a good boss. They need you._Anazina_ said:
No-one even vaguely sane would want to work for that bone idle clown, life is too short.Luckyguy1983 said:
Quite right.Scott_P said:0 -
Too true!_Anazina_ said:
And then they fuck up any decent work you do. Take it from me, you don’t want a clown as a boss.Luckyguy1983 said:
In general a bone idle clown can be a good boss. They need you._Anazina_ said:
No-one even vaguely sane would want to work for that bone idle clown, life is too short.Luckyguy1983 said:
Quite right.Scott_P said:0 -
Why so late? I seem to recall it was earlier on Thursday just gone?GIN1138 said:0 -
So at least you agree Raab is a hypocrite?Luckyguy1983 said:
Not really. I'd think the same about Blairites not countenancing working with Corbyn, Corbynites not countenancing working with Blair, ERGers not countenancing working with Rory, etc. I'm also not condoning the resignations from May's cabinet, but it takes an absurd twist of logic to argue that trying it and then resigning is worse than simply refusing to sully your hands.Chris said:
It's one of those irregular verbs, isn't it?Luckyguy1983 said:
Quite right.Scott_P said:
I make a principled stand.
You get to the end of your tether.
He, she or it petulantly flounces.0 -
Recollection of the 1990 Tory leadership battle on BBC2 now in the last episode of 'Thstcher: A Very British Revolution'0
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As a matter of interest who do you think the alternative is in Wales bearing in mind there is no appetite for independenceStuartDickson said:
Many English Remain voters will vote for them anyway. They haven’t got a choice.FrankBooth said:Just read Dr Fox's take on the Lib Dem hustings. Disappointing to see that as the Lib Dems re-emerge into the spotlight they appear to be determined to sink into wishy washy platitudes hardly becoming of the times we are in.
Scottish and Welsh Remain voters do have a non-wishy washy alternative, and will largely take it.0 -
That has not been my experienceLuckyguy1983 said:In general a bone idle clown can be a good boss. They need you.
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The reality is that Boris is going to easily win any ballot of the members.0
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I am recording it - so no spoilers please.HYUFD said:Recollection of the 1990 Tory leadership battle on BBC2 now in the last episode of 'Thstcher: A Very British Revolution'
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And in the same breath refer to enforcing collective responsibility....kle4 said:
An odd way of looking at it. It's ok to petulantly flounce out of a May Cabinet when it does things you don't want, but it is not ok to preemptively recognise that the policies of a Boris Cabinet would not be sustainable for some people.Scott_P said:
Raab really isn’t very bright.
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To be pedantic I think it's from 3pm to 5pm.GIN1138 said:1 -
It's an oft repeated, half true cliche that Thatch was a bit mad by the end, and on the evidence here she definitely was.HYUFD said:Recollection of the 1990 Tory leadership battle on BBC2 now in the last episode of 'Thstcher: A Very British Revolution'
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Watching the Thatdher program - Tebbit really is a bitter old git.0
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In that way Boris is ahead of the game. He’s not even in office yet.Theuniondivvie said:
It's an oft repeated, half true cliche that Thatch was a bit mad by the end, and on the evidence here she was.HYUFD said:Recollection of the 1990 Tory leadership battle on BBC2 now in the last episode of 'Thstcher: A Very British Revolution'
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It is true. I have read both articles (in the Shipman book). The one arguing for Remain is pretty good. I think he is on balance a Remainer. But of course your main point is correct. What he most believes in is his self-interest.kyf_100 said:Boris Johnson isn't the firmest Brexiteer on the ballot paper, he's not even the firmest brexiteer in a room full of remainers.
Boris Johnson believes in Boris Johnson and will believe in whatever he thinks it will take to get elected.
Whether apocryphal or true, the story that he wrote two columns for the telegraph, one for leave and one for remain, on the eve of declaring, speaks volumes.
People say Farage is a spiv and a huckster, but at least you know what he stands for.0 -
It's not impossible that we shall look back on events and see Boris getting through the absolute very deal that TM did all the work on while getting none of the credit, while Boris does fine out of it, and blames TM that sadly this deal isn't a better one. The hindsight reason for not standing in 2016 being that someone else can do the hard slog of drafting and agreeing with the ghastly EU, while you come in and hit a quick winning single at the end and be carried shoulder high to the pub by your mates while TM does the washing up.kle4 said:
Yes I think that makes a great deal of sense. May last in place so long because the party hoped somehow it would be sorted and all on her shoulders. I think the panic by which Boris and others finally backed the WA showed they may have overdone it previously and risked Brexit, since the alternative is they are very stupid and did not realise what voting down the WA meant. But they had done too good a job and May too bad a job, so now they have no choice but to take the job and gamble, or never get the job.nico67 said:
Yes , he didn’t have to withdraw . Just because Gove pulled his support . I suspect he was hoping someone would sort the mess out and he could then ride in . He’s now realized that he has no choice but to go for it . He’ll never get another chance but the mess is still there .Ishmael_Z said:The trouble with always laying the favourite is you have to be lucky every time, while the favourite only has to be lucky once.
Does anyone know why Johnson withdrew in 2016? If not, why does nobody care?
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Evening all,
Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.
Boris is just not being tackled on anything because he wont do the events. Just as May was not found out in the crucible of a proper leadership election.
They will rue the day.0 -
#FakeNews - IgnoreGIN1138 said:0 -
There's something endearing about how badly all his clothes fit him.Scott_P said:0 -
I didn't support what Raab did.Chris said:
So at least you agree Raab is a hypocrite?Luckyguy1983 said:
Not really. I'd think the same about Blairites not countenancing working with Corbyn, Corbynites not countenancing working with Blair, ERGers not countenancing working with Rory, etc. I'm also not condoning the resignations from May's cabinet, but it takes an absurd twist of logic to argue that trying it and then resigning is worse than simply refusing to sully your hands.Chris said:
It's one of those irregular verbs, isn't it?Luckyguy1983 said:
Quite right.Scott_P said:
I make a principled stand.
You get to the end of your tether.
He, she or it petulantly flounces.0 -
Not defending Boris but he is in the BBC live debate tomorrow night with whoever survives the vote earlier in the dayrottenborough said:Evening all,
Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.
Boris is just not being tackled on anything because he wont do the events. Just as May was not found out in the crucible of a proper leadership election.
They will rue the day.0 -
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Peston on ITV News:
Stewart's team privately believe they are two votes short at the moment.0 -
Indeed. Let's hope he gets a thorough grilling.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not defending Boris but he is in the BBC live debate tomorrow night with whoever survives the vote earlier in the dayrottenborough said:Evening all,
Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.
Boris is just not being tackled on anything because he wont do the events. Just as May was not found out in the crucible of a proper leadership election.
They will rue the day.0 -
Peston reporting that would indicate Rory is safe. Peston rarely gets it rightAndyJS said:Peston in ITV News:
Stewart's team privately believe they are two votes short at the moment.0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Peston reporting that would indicate Rory is safe. Peston rarely gets it rightAndyJS said:Peston in ITV News:
Stewart's team privately believe they are two votes short at the moment.
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You can smell the panic.Chris said:0 -
Has anyone asked Rory if it comes down to a choice between no deal or revoke which he'll go for?0
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Johnson seems to have been an OK boss to have worked for. He was an incompetent FM but didn't let his underlings take the blame. Unlike Dominic Raab.Luckyguy1983 said:
In general a bone idle clown can be a good boss. They need you._Anazina_ said:
No-one even vaguely sane would want to work for that bone idle clown, life is too short.Luckyguy1983 said:
Quite right.Scott_P said:0 -
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And of course the live hustings when down to two. Boris looks unbeatable but who knowsrottenborough said:
Indeed. Let's hope he gets a thorough grilling.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not defending Boris but he is in the BBC live debate tomorrow night with whoever survives the vote earlier in the dayrottenborough said:Evening all,
Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.
Boris is just not being tackled on anything because he wont do the events. Just as May was not found out in the crucible of a proper leadership election.
They will rue the day.0 -
Peston also believes the membership vote will be Boris v Rory.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Peston reporting that would indicate Rory is safe. Peston rarely gets it rightAndyJS said:Peston in ITV News:
Stewart's team privately believe they are two votes short at the moment.0 -
He said if the EU refused an extension he would support No Deal rather than Revoke.steve_garner said:Has anyone asked Rory if it comes down to a choice between no deal or revoke which he'll go for?
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Thanks.Chris said:
He said if the EU refused an extension he would support No Deal rather than Revoke.steve_garner said:Has anyone asked Rory if it comes down to a choice between no deal or revoke which he'll go for?
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She should have gone after 10 years in 1989, one thing Blair did get right was resigning in 2007, a decade after he came to powerTheuniondivvie said:
It's an oft repeated, half true cliche that Thatch was a bit mad by the end, and on the evidence here she definitely was.HYUFD said:Recollection of the 1990 Tory leadership battle on BBC2 now in the last episode of 'Thstcher: A Very British Revolution'
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Could be that as soon as Boris becomes PM it will also be towards the end of his premiership. No way in hell he will even last half Thatcher's stint.Jonathan said:
In that way Boris is ahead of the game. He’s not even in office yet.Theuniondivvie said:
It's an oft repeated, half true cliche that Thatch was a bit mad by the end, and on the evidence here she was.HYUFD said:Recollection of the 1990 Tory leadership battle on BBC2 now in the last episode of 'Thstcher: A Very British Revolution'
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Boris is doing the BBC debate tomorrow eveningrottenborough said:Evening all,
Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.
Boris is just not being tackled on anything because he wont do the events. Just as May was not found out in the crucible of a proper leadership election.
They will rue the day.0 -
Yes please.AndyJS said:
Peston also believes the membership vote will be Boris v Rory.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Peston reporting that would indicate Rory is safe. Peston rarely gets it rightAndyJS said:Peston in ITV News:
Stewart's team privately believe they are two votes short at the moment.0
