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SystemSystem Posts: 12,629
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Johnson looking a near certainty the big betting focus is on who’ll join him in the final 2

Last week I put a small bet with Ladbrokes on Rory Stewart at 13/1 making the final two in the Conservative leadership contest. The response I got on Twitter was interesting and with most saying I was wasting my money.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,561
    edited June 2019
    First like Boris
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited June 2019
    1.

    Ed. 2
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Rory better for long term of the party, Boris better for getting Brexit over the line....
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    edited June 2019
    Third. But only due to tactical voting and I'm confident that Sunil and Ishmael votes will peel off in my direction in later rounds.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited June 2019
    Whoever "wins", my cartoonist brain visualises a lame duck chained to a stick TNT with a burning fuse.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,320
    edited June 2019
    Managed to lay Rory last 2 at 2.78

    ... and Boris at 2.43 B)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I would prefer to see Stewart eliminated today, but a Boris v Stewart run-off would be entertaining.

    And I suspect very one sided.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    Managed to lay Rory last 2 at 2.78

    ... and Boris at 2.43 B)

    Can you explain your Boris lay? Unless I've misunderstood laying Boris at over evens seems like chucking money away.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,231
    fpt and on topic now:

    Boris is a clown. It is of course repeated often enough so as to lose meaning but he really is a clown and, simply, we cant have a clown as our prime minister.

    Tom Watson gets this, all the leadership candidates get this, I get it, other (but not all) PB Tories and many many MPs get it.

    But perhaps just enough fucking idiotic Conservative Party members do not get it and we will indeed end up with him as PM. It beggars belief.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    "I do love Tory leadership races because of the step by step approach."

    I agree. The bit I don't like is where one of them becomes Prime Minister.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Phukov said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Haha. Really? So is everyone in the EU just lying?
    Yes.
    What if you are wrong? What if the clear and transparent position the EU has taken was exactly that?
    F*ck everyone who suffers as a consequence of your high stakes gambling?
    Yes again. If I'm wrong and everyone in the EU would really rather have no deal than back down on the backstop then f*ck them and f*ck everyone else. We leave, no deal, get over it and move on. That is what wold be my choice.

    What if I'm not wrong? What if the EU really are bluffing?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,320
    edited June 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    isam said:

    Managed to lay Rory last 2 at 2.78

    ... and Boris at 2.43 B)

    Can you explain your Boris lay? Unless I've misunderstood laying Boris at over evens seems like chucking money away.
    PB advice told me he was 8/1 to make the final two because MPs hate him

    Since my return I have also followed a tip of Labour to win the Euros at 6/4, and Theresa May to be out by April at 5/2

    At least I didn't lay Boris at huge prices to win the Leadership, as also advised
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    If you're a Tory remainer you either go for Stewart to best press your case on Brexit and build his profile for a future leadership contest or Gove who still has a small chance of convincing the Tory membership he was the key Vote Leave figure. Don't see why you'd bother with Hunt.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,356
    TOPPING said:

    fpt and on topic now:

    Boris is a clown. It is of course repeated often enough so as to lose meaning but he really is a clown and, simply, we cant have a clown as our prime minister.

    Tom Watson gets this, all the leadership candidates get this, I get it, other (but not all) PB Tories and many many MPs get it.

    But perhaps just enough fucking idiotic Conservative Party members do not get it and we will indeed end up with him as PM. It beggars belief.

    He's not a clown. He's amoral. There's a difference between the two.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,231
    Artist said:

    If you're a Tory remainer you either go for Stewart to best press your case on Brexit and build his profile for a future leadership contest or Gove who still has a small chance of convincing the Tory membership he was the key Vote Leave figure. Don't see why you'd bother with Hunt.

    The difficulty is that anyone who accepts that no deal is anything other than a huge mistake makes themselves very unattractive to Tory Remainers.

    Me for example. IMO it is such a huge lapse of judgement that all else is subordinate to that view.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,608
    Artist said:

    If you're a Tory remainer you either go for Stewart to best press your case on Brexit and build his profile for a future leadership contest or Gove who still has a small chance of convincing the Tory membership he was the key Vote Leave figure. Don't see why you'd bother with Hunt.

    What’s a “Tory remainer”?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,541
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I would prefer to see Stewart eliminated today, but a Boris v Stewart run-off would be entertaining.

    And I suspect very one sided.

    It will indeed be entertaining: both can write entertainingly.

    It would be one sided for the selectorate, who I have no doubt will go heavily for Johnson's unicorns.

    It will also be one sided for the wider electorate, who I suspect will go heavily for Rory's sanity.

    And herein lies the problem for the Conservative party.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,092
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I would prefer to see Stewart eliminated today

    I'm afraid you're going to be disappointed there.

    Finger on the pulse ...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,790
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Phukov said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Haha. Really? So is everyone in the EU just lying?
    Yes.
    What if you are wrong? What if the clear and transparent position the EU has taken was exactly that?
    F*ck everyone who suffers as a consequence of your high stakes gambling?
    Yes again. If I'm wrong and everyone in the EU would really rather have no deal than back down on the backstop then f*ck them and f*ck everyone else. We leave, no deal, get over it and move on. That is what wold be my choice.

    What if I'm not wrong? What if the EU really are bluffing?
    The fact that you would play Russian Roulette with the country and people's livelihoods says it all really.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I would prefer to see Stewart eliminated today, but a Boris v Stewart run-off would be entertaining.

    And I suspect very one sided.

    Have you put a hit out on Rory for today ?!?

    The voting is tomorrow between 3-5pm with the result about 6:00pm
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,092
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Phukov said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Haha. Really? So is everyone in the EU just lying?
    Yes.
    What if you are wrong? What if the clear and transparent position the EU has taken was exactly that?
    F*ck everyone who suffers as a consequence of your high stakes gambling?
    Yes again. If I'm wrong and everyone in the EU would really rather have no deal than back down on the backstop then f*ck them and f*ck everyone else.
    Including the people who die as a result?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited June 2019
    For me it's still Javid or Rory. Javid looks like he has potential to grow into the role. If we were in BAU, they are the only two I worry about most from a Labour competitor POV. Hunt looks like he could pull off the sensible/bank-manager/Major campaign too, which would be a differentiator from Corbyn.

    I worry about Boris, but as a citizen. That's a different thing. The man has zero integrity beyond personal ambition.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,257
    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt and on topic now:

    Boris is a clown. It is of course repeated often enough so as to lose meaning but he really is a clown and, simply, we cant have a clown as our prime minister.

    Tom Watson gets this, all the leadership candidates get this, I get it, other (but not all) PB Tories and many many MPs get it.

    But perhaps just enough fucking idiotic Conservative Party members do not get it and we will indeed end up with him as PM. It beggars belief.

    He's not a clown. He's amoral. There's a difference between the two.
    Yes - one is a noun, the other an adjective.

    In Johnson's case, both are applicable.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,790
    @Philip_Thompson if my very expensive and specialised medication is delayed coming from Europe and I develop a resistance to it, rendering it useless, is that an acceptable price to pay for our "freedom"?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    I gave someone 12/1 (maybe it was Mike!!)

    I don't think it is far wrong but I accept Mike could sell out a tidy sum, whereas I am under water, so a bad bet in that sense.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Phukov said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Haha. Really? So is everyone in the EU just lying?
    Yes.
    What if you are wrong? What if the clear and transparent position the EU has taken was exactly that?
    F*ck everyone who suffers as a consequence of your high stakes gambling?
    Yes again. If I'm wrong and everyone in the EU would really rather have no deal than back down on the backstop then f*ck them and f*ck everyone else. We leave, no deal, get over it and move on. That is what wold be my choice.

    What if I'm not wrong? What if the EU really are bluffing?
    The fact that you would play Russian Roulette with the country and people's livelihoods says it all really.
    Politics is about choice and making decisions. We need to make a decision and go with it.

    At least I'm not pretending there aren't risks or downsides. I've weighed the possibilities, made an informed decision and have made a decision.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Gallowgate said:

    @Philip_Thompson if my very expensive and specialised medication is delayed coming from Europe and I develop a resistance to it, rendering it useless, is that an acceptable price to pay for our "freedom"?

    I think the odds of that happening are absolutely miniscule.

    Yes it is though. Any price is acceptable when it comes to freedom.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,231
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Phukov said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Haha. Really? So is everyone in the EU just lying?
    Yes.
    What if you are wrong? What if the clear and transparent position the EU has taken was exactly that?
    F*ck everyone who suffers as a consequence of your high stakes gambling?
    Yes again. If I'm wrong and everyone in the EU would really rather have no deal than back down on the backstop then f*ck them and f*ck everyone else. We leave, no deal, get over it and move on. That is what wold be my choice.

    What if I'm not wrong? What if the EU really are bluffing?
    The fact that you would play Russian Roulette with the country and people's livelihoods says it all really.
    Politics is about choice and making decisions. We need to make a decision and go with it.

    At least I'm not pretending there aren't risks or downsides. I've weighed the possibilities, made an informed decision and have made a decision.
    No you haven't. There's absolutely no way you can have made an informed decision on what no deal mean.

    Especially not you.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,790
    Philip_Thompson said:

    think the odds of that happening are absolutely miniscule.

    And what qualifies you to make that judgement?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Jonathan said:

    For me it's still Javid or Rory. Javid looks like he has potential to grow into the role. If we were in BAU, they are the only two I worry about most from a Labour competitor POV. Hunt looks like he could pull off the sensible/bank-manager/Major campaign too, which would be a differentiator from Corbyn.

    I worry about Boris, but as a citizen. That's a different thing. The man has zero integrity beyond personal ambition.

    I thought Javid performed second only to Stewart last night. Javid also has an interesting backstory. However it's notable that he's failed to attract any new public backers since the first ballot. I think he's out tomorrow.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    JosiasJessop said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I would prefer to see Stewart eliminated today, but a Boris v Stewart run-off would be entertaining.

    And I suspect very one sided.

    It will indeed be entertaining: both can write entertainingly.

    It would be one sided for the selectorate, who I have no doubt will go heavily for Johnson's unicorns.

    It will also be one sided for the wider electorate, who I suspect will go heavily for Rory's sanity.

    And herein lies the problem for the Conservative party.
    Any evidence the wider electorate will actually vote for a Tory-led Conservative Party? The polling available (which is flawed admittedly, I'm not HYUFD) says the exact opposite.

    The loudest cheerleading for Rory seems to be coming from people who will never countenance voting Conservative in the first place. If Rory becomes leader, fails to deliver Brexit (as he would) and divides the party in two and allows Corbyn to become PM as a result then that's not a success.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Phukov said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Haha. Really? So is everyone in the EU just lying?
    Yes.
    What if you are wrong? What if the clear and transparent position the EU has taken was exactly that?
    F*ck everyone who suffers as a consequence of your high stakes gambling?
    Yes again. If I'm wrong and everyone in the EU would really rather have no deal than back down on the backstop then f*ck them and f*ck everyone else. We leave, no deal, get over it and move on. That is what wold be my choice.

    What if I'm not wrong? What if the EU really are bluffing?
    The fact that you would play Russian Roulette with the country and people's livelihoods says it all really.
    Politics is about choice and making decisions. We need to make a decision and go with it.

    At least I'm not pretending there aren't risks or downsides. I've weighed the possibilities, made an informed decision and have made a decision.
    No you haven't. There's absolutely no way you can have made an informed decision on what no deal mean.

    Especially not you.
    Let's roll the dice and find out

    Though all this could be avoided by the EU backing down on the absurd backstop of course . . . if they're not prepared to then neither am I. I'm consistent with them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,257
    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    think the odds of that happening are absolutely miniscule.

    And what qualifies you to make that judgement?
    He shares a couple of qualities with Johnson ?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,790
    @Philip_Thompson why is upholding the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland 'absurd'?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    JackW said:

    I thought Javid performed second only to Stewart last night. Javid also has an interesting backstory. However it's notable that he's failed to attract any new public backers since the first ballot. I think he's out tomorrow.

    Gary Streeter has said he's now backing him (after backing McVey in the first round, rather oddly). However, I think you're right that he's not getting enough new support.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TOPPING said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Phukov said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Haha. Really? So is everyone in the EU just lying?
    Yes.
    What if you are wrong? What if the clear and transparent position the EU has taken was exactly that?
    F*ck everyone who suffers as a consequence of your high stakes gambling?
    Yes again. If I'm wrong and everyone in the EU would really rather have no deal than back down on the backstop then f*ck them and f*ck everyone else. We leave, no deal, get over it and move on. That is what wold be my choice.

    What if I'm not wrong? What if the EU really are bluffing?
    The fact that you would play Russian Roulette with the country and people's livelihoods says it all really.
    Politics is about choice and making decisions. We need to make a decision and go with it.

    At least I'm not pretending there aren't risks or downsides. I've weighed the possibilities, made an informed decision and have made a decision.
    No you haven't. There's absolutely no way you can have made an informed decision on what no deal mean.

    Especially not you.
    Let's roll the dice and find out

    Though all this could be avoided by the EU backing down on the absurd backstop of course . . . if they're not prepared to then neither am I. I'm consistent with them.
    You can't run policy on a YOLO basis. Not when everyone with half a brain has pointed out the absurdities and the consquences of your action.

    That is the politics of the madhouse.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,845
    Slackbladder said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    TOPPING said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Phukov said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Haha. Really? So is everyone in the EU just lying?
    Yes.
    What if you are wrong? What if the clear and transparent position the EU has taken was exactly that?
    F*ck everyone who suffers as a consequence of your high stakes gambling?
    Yes again. If I'm wrong and everyone in the EU would really rather have no deal than back down on the backstop then f*ck them and f*ck everyone else. We leave, no deal, get over it and move on. That is what wold be my choice.

    What if I'm not wrong? What if the EU really are bluffing?
    The fact that you would play Russian Roulette with the country and people's livelihoods says it all really.
    Politics is about choice and making decisions. We need to make a decision and go with it.

    At least I'm not pretending there aren't risks or downsides. I've weighed the possibilities, made an informed decision and have made a decision.
    No you haven't. There's absolutely no way you can have made an informed decision on what no deal mean.

    Especially not you.
    Let's roll the dice and find out

    Though all this could be avoided by the EU backing down on the absurd backstop of course . . . if they're not prepared to then neither am I. I'm consistent with them.
    You can't run policy on a YOLO basis. Not when everyone with half a brain has pointed out the absurdities and the consquences of your action.

    That is the politics of the madhouse.
    Haazzzzzzzzzzahhhh
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    JackW said:

    I thought Javid performed second only to Stewart last night. Javid also has an interesting backstory. However it's notable that he's failed to attract any new public backers since the first ballot. I think he's out tomorrow.

    Gary Streeter has said he's now backing him (after backing McVey in the first round, rather oddly). However, I think you're right that he's not getting enough new support.
    It's strange, because he really does seem to be closest to embodying the full range of modern conservatism as I understand it. Perhaps he is a bit rough around the edges in this campaign, but unlike some others I get the impression that he appears to have room to grow into the role and become an important Tory figure.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    JackW said:

    Jonathan said:

    For me it's still Javid or Rory. Javid looks like he has potential to grow into the role. If we were in BAU, they are the only two I worry about most from a Labour competitor POV. Hunt looks like he could pull off the sensible/bank-manager/Major campaign too, which would be a differentiator from Corbyn.

    I worry about Boris, but as a citizen. That's a different thing. The man has zero integrity beyond personal ambition.

    I thought Javid performed second only to Stewart last night. Javid also has an interesting backstory. However it's notable that he's failed to attract any new public backers since the first ballot. I think he's out tomorrow.
    Javid rather faded in and out during the debate so his highlights reel will be better than his live performance. The danger for Boris is by the time he deigns to face an opponent, he will have missed the week of rehearsals the others have had.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,813
    edited June 2019
    That was a stonking bet by Mike but if I had been fortunate enough - or astute enough - to have done it I would be laying back now. Over laying, in fact, since my sense is that the 'Rory' thing is crossing over into hype that is detached from the reality of what is likely with the actual voting of actual MPs.

    I also agree that there is nothing better than a proper Tory leadership contest with several candidates. The two stage process, MP knockout ballots followed by a duel for the members, is absolutely fantastic for creating drama and a twisting narrative. It is a great system. The only thing I can immediately think of to rival it is the scoring system for tennis.

    On which note, we have to say that Boris Johnson is match point and serving. So close, one good delivery will do it, but as any tennis fan knows - Boris for example, he loves the game - many a match is lost from this position.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,406
    JosiasJessop said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I would prefer to see Stewart eliminated today, but a Boris v Stewart run-off would be entertaining.

    And I suspect very one sided.

    It will indeed be entertaining: both can write entertainingly.

    It would be one sided for the selectorate, who I have no doubt will go heavily for Johnson's unicorns.

    It will also be one sided for the wider electorate, who I suspect will go heavily for Rory's sanity.

    And herein lies the problem for the Conservative party.
    Not to mention the optics of which Old Etonian should we make your PM?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,541
    Philip_Thompson said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I would prefer to see Stewart eliminated today, but a Boris v Stewart run-off would be entertaining.

    And I suspect very one sided.

    It will indeed be entertaining: both can write entertainingly.

    It would be one sided for the selectorate, who I have no doubt will go heavily for Johnson's unicorns.

    It will also be one sided for the wider electorate, who I suspect will go heavily for Rory's sanity.

    And herein lies the problem for the Conservative party.
    Any evidence the wider electorate will actually vote for a Tory-led Conservative Party? The polling available (which is flawed admittedly, I'm not HYUFD) says the exact opposite.

    The loudest cheerleading for Rory seems to be coming from people who will never countenance voting Conservative in the first place. If Rory becomes leader, fails to deliver Brexit (as he would) and divides the party in two and allows Corbyn to become PM as a result then that's not a success.
    I must admit that it'd be good to get back to a "Tory-led Conservative Party". It's better than the current reality where the winnet-covered UKIP-wannbe tail is wagging the shit-encrusted dog of a party.

    I was one of the first (the first?) to cheerlead Rory on PB, many moons ago. I am perfectly willing to vote Conservative. Anecdotally, so would Mrs J, who has never voted Conservative before.

    This would be a problem for the party, but it would also be an opportunity. Contrast with Johnson, whom neither of us would vote for.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,632
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    JackW said:

    I thought Javid performed second only to Stewart last night. Javid also has an interesting backstory. However it's notable that he's failed to attract any new public backers since the first ballot. I think he's out tomorrow.

    Gary Streeter has said he's now backing him (after backing McVey in the first round, rather oddly). However, I think you're right that he's not getting enough new support.
    Yes, I canvassed in Torbay with Gary Streeter - wouldn't have had him down as a McVey backer. But Kevin Foster is backing Javid, so maybe he has won Streeter over?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2019
    Jonathan said:

    It's strange, because he really does seem to be closest to embodying the full range of modern conservatism as I understand it. Perhaps he is a bit rough around the edges in this campaign, but unlike some others I get the impression that he appears to have room to grow into the role and become an important Tory figure.

    I think the problem has been that he didn't get his campaign rolled out fast enough, and he's just got drowned out by the noise. I know of one MP who might have been a key organiser for him but who declined to support him because Javid wouldn't rule out No Deal.

    The other problem he has is that he has often come over as a dull speaker (that first campaign video, for example). However, he seems to be improving on that, but it's probably too late for this contest. I think you're right that he's still got room to grow.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,097
    JackW said:

    Jonathan said:

    For me it's still Javid or Rory. Javid looks like he has potential to grow into the role. If we were in BAU, they are the only two I worry about most from a Labour competitor POV. Hunt looks like he could pull off the sensible/bank-manager/Major campaign too, which would be a differentiator from Corbyn.

    I worry about Boris, but as a citizen. That's a different thing. The man has zero integrity beyond personal ambition.

    I thought Javid performed second only to Stewart last night. Javid also has an interesting backstory. However it's notable that he's failed to attract any new public backers since the first ballot. I think he's out tomorrow.
    That's interesting. I thought the one who underwhelmed the most last night was Javid.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,541
    dixiedean said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I would prefer to see Stewart eliminated today, but a Boris v Stewart run-off would be entertaining.

    And I suspect very one sided.

    It will indeed be entertaining: both can write entertainingly.

    It would be one sided for the selectorate, who I have no doubt will go heavily for Johnson's unicorns.

    It will also be one sided for the wider electorate, who I suspect will go heavily for Rory's sanity.

    And herein lies the problem for the Conservative party.
    Not to mention the optics of which Old Etonian should we make your PM?
    I actually think Rory wouldn't be harmed much by the OE issue. Johnson isn't, because he laughs it off. Rory's story is much more interesting than 'just' being an OE - and IMO a much more admirable story. Johnson embraces his OE background; Rory seems to make it an irrelevance.

    The people who have issues with it are those like Cameron, who could never quite comfortably fend off such attacks.

    In my view, someone's schooling doesn't matter one bit.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Gallowgate said:

    @Philip_Thompson why is upholding the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland 'absurd'?

    Upholding peace is not absurd. Doing so at any price is.

    The backstop is that NI would be effectively annexed by the EU/Eire and that NI would be subject to EU/Eire laws without getting a say in them. If that had been the agreement proposed on Good Friday it would have (quite rightly) been rejected. As such I am prepared to reject it now. Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2019
    Received my warm up pack from CCO today about the members ballot - asking also for monies towards the Leaders fund and a scary Corbyn flyer....

    If they want £ for Boris, I think not....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,091
    Boris is so far ahead he'll be able to effectively pick who makes the last two once the result of the second ballot is known tomorrow. There might not be more than 10 votes separating Hunt, Gove and Stewart. He could safely donate a chunk of votes.

    If I were him I'd do what I could to prevent Stewart making the final two. Not because he might win (he wouldn't) but because he'd shred Johnson's position and approach through the hustings before he'd even started as PM.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    kinabalu said:

    That was a stonking bet by Mike but if I had been fortunate enough - or astute enough - to have done it I would be laying back now. Over laying, in fact, since my sense is that the 'Rory' thing is crossing over into hype that is detached from the reality of what is likely with the actual voting of actual MPs.

    I also agree that there is nothing better than a proper Tory leadership contest with several candidates. The two stage process, MP knockout ballots followed by a duel for the members, is absolutely fantastic for creating drama and a twisting narrative. It is a great system. The only thing I can immediately think of to rival it is the scoring system for tennis.

    On which note, we have to say that Boris Johnson is match point and serving. So close, one good delivery will do it, but as any tennis fan knows - Boris for example, he loves the game - many a match is lost from that position.

    Is this another correlation: tennis-playing prime ministers? Blair and Cameron both swung a racket.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Casino_Royale said:

    Boris is so far ahead he'll be able to effectively pick who makes the last two once the result of the second ballot is known tomorrow. There might not be more than 10 votes separating Hunt, Gove and Stewart. He could safely donate a chunk of votes.

    If I were him I'd do what I could to prevent Stewart making the final two. Not because he might win (he wouldn't) but because he'd shred Johnson's position and approach through the hustings before he'd even started as PM.

    Indeed. Stewart is guaranteed to lose to Johnson amongst the membership but he won't hold back on any "blue on blue" punches.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    6 left - could be 3 or 5 this time tomorrow.

    Does Rory have enough to get the 10% and avoid finishing bottom ?

    4 would be interesting and potentially open up a 4th round of voting.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Phukov said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Haha. Really? So is everyone in the EU just lying?
    Yes.
    What if you are wrong? What if the clear and transparent position the EU has taken was exactly that?
    F*ck everyone who suffers as a consequence of your high stakes gambling?
    Yes again. If I'm wrong and everyone in the EU would really rather have no deal than back down on the backstop then f*ck them and f*ck everyone else. We leave, no deal, get over it and move on. That is what wold be my choice.

    What if I'm not wrong? What if the EU really are bluffing?
    The fact that you would play Russian Roulette with the country and people's livelihoods says it all really.
    Politics is about choice and making decisions. We need to make a decision and go with it.

    At least I'm not pretending there aren't risks or downsides. I've weighed the possibilities, made an informed decision and have made a decision.
    So what’s your advice on tariff setting, customs checks and the NI border then being so well informed that we can weather No Deal?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,827
    Good afternoon, my fellow residents of Atlantis.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    @Philip_Thompson why is upholding the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland 'absurd'?

    Upholding peace is not absurd. Doing so at any price is.

    The backstop is that NI would be effectively annexed by the EU/Eire and that NI would be subject to EU/Eire laws without getting a say in them. If that had been the agreement proposed on Good Friday it would have (quite rightly) been rejected. As such I am prepared to reject it now. Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.
    Yet Northern Irish voters quite like the backstop and would quite like for it to be implemented as it arguably gives them a competitive advantage for the duration that it is in force.

    https://factcheckni.org/facts/are-60-against-the-backstop-in-northern-ireland/

    So you've demonstrated that you'd prefer the return of violence to Northern Ireland and potentially the rest of Great Britain rather than implement an agreement with a tool that the people of Northern Ireland actually quite like.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,787
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's strange, because he really does seem to be closest to embodying the full range of modern conservatism as I understand it. Perhaps he is a bit rough around the edges in this campaign, but unlike some others I get the impression that he appears to have room to grow into the role and become an important Tory figure.

    I think the problem has been that he didn't get his campaign rolled out fast enough, and he's just got drowned out by the noise. I know of one MP who might have been a key organiser for him but who declined to support him because Javid wouldn't rule out No Deal.

    The other problem he has is that he has often come over as a dull speaker (that first campaign video, for example). However, he seems to be improving on that, but it's probably too late for this contest. I think you're right that he's still got room to grow.
    He had one particularly good moment though, when that dumb question came up about him not being asked to the Trump banquet. He answered with considerable dignity.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    notme2 said:

    Rory better for long term of the party, Boris better for getting Brexit over the line....

    Kinda hard to get Brexit over the line if you get VONCed out of N10 before October.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nichomar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Politics is about choice and making decisions. We need to make a decision and go with it.

    At least I'm not pretending there aren't risks or downsides. I've weighed the possibilities, made an informed decision and have made a decision.

    So what’s your advice on tariff setting, customs checks and the NI border then being so well informed that we can weather No Deal?
    1: Offer to ratify the agreement subject to removal of the backstop.
    2: I believe the government has already come up with a tariff schedule to be applied on a no deal basis. Largely based upon the EU's own tariff schedule but many items dropped to 0. Apply this on Ireland and the EU if there's no deal.
    3: Announce that we will not implement any customs checks unless or until the EU does and will instead rely upon self-declaration of any owed customs.

    Then move on.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2019
    Andrew said:

    notme2 said:

    Rory better for long term of the party, Boris better for getting Brexit over the line....

    Kinda hard to get Brexit over the line if you get VONCed out of N10 before October.
    Hate to say it, Rory Stewart is not imho the camera's friend. I think that is (sadly) important in 24/7 media.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,762
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Boris is so far ahead he'll be able to effectively pick who makes the last two once the result of the second ballot is known tomorrow. There might not be more than 10 votes separating Hunt, Gove and Stewart. He could safely donate a chunk of votes.

    If I were him I'd do what I could to prevent Stewart making the final two. Not because he might win (he wouldn't) but because he'd shred Johnson's position and approach through the hustings before he'd even started as PM.

    Indeed. Stewart is guaranteed to lose to Johnson amongst the membership but he won't hold back on any "blue on blue" punches.
    Dunno about that. Feels to me like Stewart is doing everything he can to earn the maverick, truth-telling mantle... without actually stepping over the line.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Interesting psychological argument:
    https://twitter.com/CharlotteCGill/status/1140615412910034944
    https://twitter.com/CharlotteCGill/status/1140616508609052672
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,231
    edited June 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    @Philip_Thompson why is upholding the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland 'absurd'?

    Upholding peace is not absurd. Doing so at any price is.

    The backstop is that NI would be effectively annexed by the EU/Eire and that NI would be subject to EU/Eire laws without getting a say in them. If that had been the agreement proposed on Good Friday it would have (quite rightly) been rejected. As such I am prepared to reject it now. Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.
    Preferable that the troubles restart.

    Unbelievable. What with that and your desire to go to war with the EU if they impose phyto-sanitary checks on us I can only assume you're posting this from the recruiting office?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,790
    I'm sure that @Philip_Thompson would be prepared to sacrifice his family in an IRA bombing as an acceptable price for not agreeing to the capitulation backstop.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Philip_Thompson said:

    nichomar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Politics is about choice and making decisions. We need to make a decision and go with it.

    At least I'm not pretending there aren't risks or downsides. I've weighed the possibilities, made an informed decision and have made a decision.

    Then move on.
    Philip_Thompson said:

    nichomar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Politics is about choice and making decisions. We need to make a decision and go with it.

    At least I'm not pretending there aren't risks or downsides. I've weighed the possibilities, made an informed decision and have made a decision.

    Then move on.
    Philip_Thompson said:

    nichomar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Politics is about choice and making decisions. We need to make a decision and go with it.

    At least I'm not pretending there aren't risks or downsides. I've weighed the possibilities, made an informed decision and have made a decision.

    Then move on.
    Philip_Thompson said:

    nichomar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Politics is about choice and making decisions. We need to make a decision and go with it.

    At least I'm not pretending there aren't risks or downsides. I've weighed the possibilities, made an informed decision and have made a decision.

    So what’s your advice on tariff setting, customs checks and the NI border then being so well informed that we can weather No Deal?
    1: Offer to ratify the agreement subject to removal of the backstop.
    2: I believe the government has already come up with a tariff schedule to be applied on a no deal basis. Largely based upon the EU's own tariff schedule but many items dropped to 0. Apply this on Ireland and the EU if there's no deal.
    3: Announce that we will not implement any customs checks unless or until the EU does and will instead rely upon self-declaration of any owed customs.

    Then move on.
    Tony Connelley over on rte wrote a long piece on the plans for the border in the event of a no deal, just before the March deadline. He had been talking to Irish Civil Servants and EU people. In summary they would initially leave everything as it is now and only introduce the customs, SPS procedures, etc when they had it all worked out so as not to cause mass disruption.

    Seeing as he also said that NI and UK Civil Servants were involved in the talks/plans then I can only conclude that our politicians know of the pans as well, which means they know the backstop threat by the EU is an empty threat because the EU and Ireland will not enforce a border.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Casino_Royale said:

    Boris is so far ahead he'll be able to effectively pick who makes the last two once the result of the second ballot is known tomorrow. There might not be more than 10 votes separating Hunt, Gove and Stewart. He could safely donate a chunk of votes.

    If I were him I'd do what I could to prevent Stewart making the final two. Not because he might win (he wouldn't) but because he'd shred Johnson's position and approach through the hustings before he'd even started as PM.

    You make a very good point , Boris can effectively afford to lend some of his support to who he decides is runner up . He could even offer a deal to Javid promising him second place in return for him standing down in a coronation and getting top cabinet job . Chancellor ?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Good god.
    https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1140605424183521280
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Gallowgate said:

    I'm sure that @Philip_Thompson would be prepared to sacrifice his family in an IRA bombing as an acceptable price for not agreeing to the capitulation backstop.

    I'm prepared to take the minuscule risk of that happening.

    I'm prepared to take the bigger risk of them dying in a horrible car crash every time we get on the road.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,231
    edited June 2019
    Casino_Royale said:

    Boris is so far ahead he'll be able to effectively pick who makes the last two once the result of the second ballot is known tomorrow. There might not be more than 10 votes separating Hunt, Gove and Stewart. He could safely donate a chunk of votes.

    If I were him I'd do what I could to prevent Stewart making the final two. Not because he might win (he wouldn't) but because he'd shred Johnson's position and approach through the hustings before he'd even started as PM.

    Very risky strategy. What if the ones he tells to vote for others were the staunch loyalists and the ones he tells stick with me float off elsewhere?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    TOPPING said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    @Philip_Thompson why is upholding the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland 'absurd'?

    Upholding peace is not absurd. Doing so at any price is.

    The backstop is that NI would be effectively annexed by the EU/Eire and that NI would be subject to EU/Eire laws without getting a say in them. If that had been the agreement proposed on Good Friday it would have (quite rightly) been rejected. As such I am prepared to reject it now. Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.
    Preferable that the troubles restart.

    Unbelievable. What with that and your desire to go to war with the EU if they impose phyto-sanitary checks on us I can only assume you're posting this from the recruiting office?
    I sometimes wonder if a large number of leavers are actually psychos. After all, we know they don't care that much if people lose their jobs and businesses, and they even accept that this is almost certain, while before the referendum they denied it. Depression and suicide rates generally go up with such business and job losses, but this is clearly worth it in the psychotic minds of many Brexiters. Now it seems that according to Philip Thompson, armed conflict is also worth it for Brexit purity. And they wonder why I accuse them of fascism!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    TOPPING said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    @Philip_Thompson why is upholding the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland 'absurd'?

    Upholding peace is not absurd. Doing so at any price is.

    The backstop is that NI would be effectively annexed by the EU/Eire and that NI would be subject to EU/Eire laws without getting a say in them. If that had been the agreement proposed on Good Friday it would have (quite rightly) been rejected. As such I am prepared to reject it now. Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.
    Preferable that the troubles restart.

    Unbelievable. What with that and your desire to go to war with the EU if they impose phyto-sanitary checks on us I can only assume you're posting this from the recruiting office?
    I sometimes wonder if a large number of leavers are actually psychos. After all, we know they don't care that much if people lose their jobs and businesses, and they even accept that this is almost certain, while before the referendum they denied it. Depression and suicide rates generally go up with such business and job losses, but this is clearly worth it in the psychotic minds of many Brexiters. Now it seems that according to Philip Thompson, armed conflict is also worth it for Brexit purity. And they wonder why I accuse them of fascism!
    You'd think they'd be happier moving to a remote part of New Zealand. Happy to chip in for the air fare.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    TOPPING said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Boris is so far ahead he'll be able to effectively pick who makes the last two once the result of the second ballot is known tomorrow. There might not be more than 10 votes separating Hunt, Gove and Stewart. He could safely donate a chunk of votes.

    If I were him I'd do what I could to prevent Stewart making the final two. Not because he might win (he wouldn't) but because he'd shred Johnson's position and approach through the hustings before he'd even started as PM.

    Very risky strategy. What if the ones he tells to vote for others were the staunch loyalists and the ones he tells stick with me float off elsewhere?
    I think even Boris understands the law of unintended consequences. Particularly as it was just that unwritten law that got us here in the first place, thanks to his old buddy David Cameron
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,053
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Phukov said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Haha. Really? So is everyone in the EU just lying?
    Yes.
    What if you are wrong? What if the clear and transparent position the EU has taken was exactly that?
    F*ck everyone who suffers as a consequence of your high stakes gambling?
    Yes again. If I'm wrong and everyone in the EU would really rather have no deal than back down on the backstop then f*ck them and f*ck everyone else. We leave, no deal, get over it and move on. That is what wold be my choice.

    What if I'm not wrong? What if the EU really are bluffing?
    and here, ladies and gentleman, we have the leaver mindset on display. If, despite repeatedly telling us they won't, the EU don't do what we want "f*ck them and f*ck everyone else". No wonder we are on our way to hell in a handcart.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Anorak said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    TOPPING said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    @Philip_Thompson why is upholding the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland 'absurd'?

    Upholding peace is not absurd. Doing so at any price is.

    The backstop is that NI would be effectively annexed by the EU/Eire and that NI would be subject to EU/Eire laws without getting a say in them. If that had been the agreement proposed on Good Friday it would have (quite rightly) been rejected. As such I am prepared to reject it now. Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.
    Preferable that the troubles restart.

    Unbelievable. What with that and your desire to go to war with the EU if they impose phyto-sanitary checks on us I can only assume you're posting this from the recruiting office?
    I sometimes wonder if a large number of leavers are actually psychos. After all, we know they don't care that much if people lose their jobs and businesses, and they even accept that this is almost certain, while before the referendum they denied it. Depression and suicide rates generally go up with such business and job losses, but this is clearly worth it in the psychotic minds of many Brexiters. Now it seems that according to Philip Thompson, armed conflict is also worth it for Brexit purity. And they wonder why I accuse them of fascism!
    You'd think they'd be happier moving to a remote part of New Zealand. Happy to chip in for the air fare.
    I don't think the very tolerant people of New Zealand would particularly want them
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,082
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    @Philip_Thompson why is upholding the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland 'absurd'?

    Upholding peace is not absurd. Doing so at any price is.

    The backstop is that NI would be effectively annexed by the EU/Eire and that NI would be subject to EU/Eire laws without getting a say in them. If that had been the agreement proposed on Good Friday it would have (quite rightly) been rejected. As such I am prepared to reject it now. Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.
    "Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed"
    or to put in another way "I don't care if innocent people get murdered provided we leave the Single Market"

    That's appalling!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Anorak said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    TOPPING said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    @Philip_Thompson why is upholding the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland 'absurd'?

    Upholding peace is not absurd. Doing so at any price is.

    The backstop is that NI would be effectively annexed by the EU/Eire and that NI would be subject to EU/Eire laws without getting a say in them. If that had been the agreement proposed on Good Friday it would have (quite rightly) been rejected. As such I am prepared to reject it now. Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.
    Preferable that the troubles restart.

    Unbelievable. What with that and your desire to go to war with the EU if they impose phyto-sanitary checks on us I can only assume you're posting this from the recruiting office?
    I sometimes wonder if a large number of leavers are actually psychos. After all, we know they don't care that much if people lose their jobs and businesses, and they even accept that this is almost certain, while before the referendum they denied it. Depression and suicide rates generally go up with such business and job losses, but this is clearly worth it in the psychotic minds of many Brexiters. Now it seems that according to Philip Thompson, armed conflict is also worth it for Brexit purity. And they wonder why I accuse them of fascism!
    You'd think they'd be happier moving to a remote part of New Zealand. Happy to chip in for the air fare.
    I don't think the very tolerant people of New Zealand would particularly want them
    Don't worry. I've chartered a 737Max. Pilot: Jim Davidson.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    logical_song said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    @Philip_Thompson why is upholding the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland 'absurd'?

    Upholding peace is not absurd. Doing so at any price is.

    The backstop is that NI would be effectively annexed by the EU/Eire and that NI would be subject to EU/Eire laws without getting a say in them. If that had been the agreement proposed on Good Friday it would have (quite rightly) been rejected. As such I am prepared to reject it now. Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.
    "Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed"
    or to put in another way "I don't care if innocent people get murdered provided we leave the Single Market"

    That's appalling!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY
    That video is full of discredited lies. Why are you still posting it? Have you no shame?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,977
    Gallowgate said:

    I'm sure that @Philip_Thompson would be prepared to sacrifice his family in an IRA bombing as an acceptable price for not agreeing to the capitulation backstop.

    So what you're saying is you're happy for anyone who can threaten a terrorist attack on British soil to have a say in our foreign policy.

    I'm personally not convinced that Jihadi John, all of his mates, and every right wing nut job who can make a pipebomb should be dictating government policy. But ymmv.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Philip_Thompson said:

    logical_song said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    @Philip_Thompson why is upholding the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland 'absurd'?

    Upholding peace is not absurd. Doing so at any price is.

    The backstop is that NI would be effectively annexed by the EU/Eire and that NI would be subject to EU/Eire laws without getting a say in them. If that had been the agreement proposed on Good Friday it would have (quite rightly) been rejected. As such I am prepared to reject it now. Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.
    "Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed"
    or to put in another way "I don't care if innocent people get murdered provided we leave the Single Market"

    That's appalling!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY
    That video is full of discredited lies. Why are you still posting it? Have you no shame?
    Oh irony. You clearly have none.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    OllyT said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Phukov said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
    Can't have one of them without the backstop. Have you not been listening?
    I have been listening. That is garbage.
    Haha. Really? So is everyone in the EU just lying?
    Yes.
    What if you are wrong? What if the clear and transparent position the EU has taken was exactly that?
    F*ck everyone who suffers as a consequence of your high stakes gambling?
    Yes again. If I'm wrong and everyone in the EU would really rather have no deal than back down on the backstop then f*ck them and f*ck everyone else. We leave, no deal, get over it and move on. That is what wold be my choice.

    What if I'm not wrong? What if the EU really are bluffing?
    and here, ladies and gentleman, we have the leaver mindset on display. If, despite repeatedly telling us they won't, the EU don't do what we want "f*ck them and f*ck everyone else". No wonder we are on our way to hell in a handcart.
    Except we're not. We're absolutely fine.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kyf_100 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    I'm sure that @Philip_Thompson would be prepared to sacrifice his family in an IRA bombing as an acceptable price for not agreeing to the capitulation backstop.

    So what you're saying is you're happy for anyone who can threaten a terrorist attack on British soil to have a say in our foreign policy.

    I'm personally not convinced that Jihadi John, all of his mates, and every right wing nut job who can make a pipebomb should be dictating government policy. But ymmv.
    Precisely.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,089
    JosiasJessop said:

    dixiedean said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I would prefer to see Stewart eliminated today, but a Boris v Stewart run-off would be entertaining.

    And I suspect very one sided.

    It will indeed be entertaining: both can write entertainingly.

    It would be one sided for the selectorate, who I have no doubt will go heavily for Johnson's unicorns.

    It will also be one sided for the wider electorate, who I suspect will go heavily for Rory's sanity.

    And herein lies the problem for the Conservative party.
    Not to mention the optics of which Old Etonian should we make your PM?
    I actually think Rory wouldn't be harmed much by the OE issue. Johnson isn't, because he laughs it off. Rory's story is much more interesting than 'just' being an OE - and IMO a much more admirable story. Johnson embraces his OE background; Rory seems to make it an irrelevance.

    The people who have issues with it are those like Cameron, who could never quite comfortably fend off such attacks.

    In my view, someone's schooling doesn't matter one bit.
    In terms of one candidate I would agree. But when there is there is a continuing overrepresentation then it is not good for the country. For me, a more extreme example is the crazy proportion of Prime Ministers who went to Oxford University. It is not as if there aren't plenty of other good universities in the UK.
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    Chris said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I would prefer to see Stewart eliminated today

    I'm afraid you're going to be disappointed there.

    Finger on the pulse ...
    Sneak beans reference there.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,790
    edited June 2019
    kyf_100 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    I'm sure that @Philip_Thompson would be prepared to sacrifice his family in an IRA bombing as an acceptable price for not agreeing to the capitulation backstop.

    So what you're saying is you're happy for anyone who can threaten a terrorist attack on British soil to have a say in our foreign policy.

    I'm personally not convinced that Jihadi John, all of his mates, and every right wing nut job who can make a pipebomb should be dictating government policy. But ymmv.
    You know that's not what I'm saying. The peace in Northern Ireland was nurtured under a cloud of respect and reconciliation, as well as an understanding of the EU acting as a bridge between British and Irish.

    One cannot poke that bear without realising what consequences it may unleash.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Philip_Thompson said:

    logical_song said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    @Philip_Thompson why is upholding the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland 'absurd'?

    Upholding peace is not absurd. Doing so at any price is.

    The backstop is that NI would be effectively annexed by the EU/Eire and that NI would be subject to EU/Eire laws without getting a say in them. If that had been the agreement proposed on Good Friday it would have (quite rightly) been rejected. As such I am prepared to reject it now. Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.
    "Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed"
    or to put in another way "I don't care if innocent people get murdered provided we leave the Single Market"

    That's appalling!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY
    That video is full of discredited lies. Why are you still posting it? Have you no shame?
    Is it FAKE NOOS?! (no it isn't they all tried to con everyone)

    I am not sure if you are just gullible/ignorant or you are a rampant fascist. The good thing about your posts is that it shows the true colours of many people that support Brexit, and it is even more repulsive than many of us feared. Decent people need to put fascist tendencies revealed by Brexit firmly back in a box.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,091
    TOPPING said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Boris is so far ahead he'll be able to effectively pick who makes the last two once the result of the second ballot is known tomorrow. There might not be more than 10 votes separating Hunt, Gove and Stewart. He could safely donate a chunk of votes.

    If I were him I'd do what I could to prevent Stewart making the final two. Not because he might win (he wouldn't) but because he'd shred Johnson's position and approach through the hustings before he'd even started as PM.

    Very risky strategy. What if the ones he tells to vote for others were the staunch loyalists and the ones he tells stick with me float off elsewhere?
    He only needs to knock on the door of eight or ten loyalists to him. And he'd still be well up on the first round.

    It's a secret ballot, so noone will ever know
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,644
    edited June 2019
    Snip
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    I'm sure that @Philip_Thompson would be prepared to sacrifice his family in an IRA bombing as an acceptable price for not agreeing to the capitulation backstop.

    I'm prepared to take the minuscule risk of that happening.

    I'm prepared to take the bigger risk of them dying in a horrible car crash every time we get on the road.
    The difference is, when you drive somewhere, you actually get something out of it.

    Fucking Northern Ireland up is all risk and no reward. Pointless.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2019
    RobD said:

    Snip

    The lengths that PBers will go to, even posting whilst having surgery down below.

    I commend you sir ....
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Phukov said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    I'm sure that @Philip_Thompson would be prepared to sacrifice his family in an IRA bombing as an acceptable price for not agreeing to the capitulation backstop.

    I'm prepared to take the minuscule risk of that happening.

    I'm prepared to take the bigger risk of them dying in a horrible car crash every time we get on the road.
    The difference is, when you drive somewhere, you actually get something out of it.

    Fucking Northern Ireland up is all risk and no reward. Pointless.
    A bit like Brexit in general, but its advocates are all in denial.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,082
    Philip_Thompson said:

    logical_song said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    @Philip_Thompson why is upholding the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland 'absurd'?

    Upholding peace is not absurd. Doing so at any price is.

    The backstop is that NI would be effectively annexed by the EU/Eire and that NI would be subject to EU/Eire laws without getting a say in them. If that had been the agreement proposed on Good Friday it would have (quite rightly) been rejected. As such I am prepared to reject it now. Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.
    "Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed"
    or to put in another way "I don't care if innocent people get murdered provided we leave the Single Market"

    That's appalling!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY
    That video is full of discredited lies. Why are you still posting it? Have you no shame?
    It's what they said, posting it is showing what they said. Yes they lied.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,257
    Phukov said:

    Chris said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I would prefer to see Stewart eliminated today

    I'm afraid you're going to be disappointed there.

    Finger on the pulse ...
    Sneak beans reference there.
    Only half baked, though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,257
    Philip_Thompson said:

    logical_song said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    @Philip_Thompson why is upholding the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland 'absurd'?

    Upholding peace is not absurd. Doing so at any price is.

    The backstop is that NI would be effectively annexed by the EU/Eire and that NI would be subject to EU/Eire laws without getting a say in them. If that had been the agreement proposed on Good Friday it would have (quite rightly) been rejected. As such I am prepared to reject it now. Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.
    "Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed"
    or to put in another way "I don't care if innocent people get murdered provided we leave the Single Market"

    That's appalling!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY
    That video is full of discredited lies. Why are you still posting it? Have you no shame?
    Of course it is - it features Farage speaking.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    West Indies v Bangladesh is evens or thereabouts.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.159349079
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,257
    One for the next Tory debate livestream...
    https://twitter.com/MohsinBilalKhan/status/1139554505060757509
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,257
    AndyJS said:

    West Indies v Bangladesh is evens or thereabouts.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.159349079

    Needs another seven overs for them to win on DL, should it get rained off...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Nigelb said:

    AndyJS said:

    West Indies v Bangladesh is evens or thereabouts.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.159349079

    Needs another seven overs for them to win on DL, should it get rained off...
    No rain is forecast luckily.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,320
    Tissue_Price said:

    Interesting psychological argument:
    https://twitter.com/CharlotteCGill/status/1140615412910034944
    https://twitter.com/CharlotteCGill/status/1140616508609052672

    I think I said this yesterday. Boris having numerous conquests makes me think he is going to be able to get a better deal. He has firm for getting what he wants with less than optimum credentials
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,142
    Gallowgate said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    I'm sure that @Philip_Thompson would be prepared to sacrifice his family in an IRA bombing as an acceptable price for not agreeing to the capitulation backstop.

    So what you're saying is you're happy for anyone who can threaten a terrorist attack on British soil to have a say in our foreign policy.

    I'm personally not convinced that Jihadi John, all of his mates, and every right wing nut job who can make a pipebomb should be dictating government policy. But ymmv.
    You know that's not what I'm saying. The peace in Northern Ireland was nurtured under a cloud of respect and reconciliation, as well as an understanding of the EU acting as a bridge between British and Irish.

    One cannot poke that bear without realising what consequences it may unleash.
    There are lots of compelling reasons for us to have a comprehensive deal with the EU including a FTA which allows the border in NI to remain completely open. But this really isn't one of them. We cannot be blackmailed by a bunch of criminal psychopaths who might threaten to stir up trouble.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,356
    DavidL said:

    Gallowgate said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    I'm sure that @Philip_Thompson would be prepared to sacrifice his family in an IRA bombing as an acceptable price for not agreeing to the capitulation backstop.

    So what you're saying is you're happy for anyone who can threaten a terrorist attack on British soil to have a say in our foreign policy.

    I'm personally not convinced that Jihadi John, all of his mates, and every right wing nut job who can make a pipebomb should be dictating government policy. But ymmv.
    You know that's not what I'm saying. The peace in Northern Ireland was nurtured under a cloud of respect and reconciliation, as well as an understanding of the EU acting as a bridge between British and Irish.

    One cannot poke that bear without realising what consequences it may unleash.
    There are lots of compelling reasons for us to have a comprehensive deal with the EU including a FTA which allows the border in NI to remain completely open. But this really isn't one of them. We cannot be blackmailed by a bunch of criminal psychopaths who might threaten to stir up trouble.

    If people resort to terror because a political decision goes against them, then the onus is on the terrorists.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Cambridgeshire police investigating five further allegations relating to the Peterborough by-election - three relating to postal votes and one each relating to bribery and privacy :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324
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