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Surprised Hancock isn't considering supporting Hunt as well as Gove and Javid.0
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Which I don't dispute, but please don't insult our intelligence by suggesting a great many of those insisting on a new referendum ever had any intention of doing otherwise - the reasoning of many of them that any deal is not as good as the deal we have, or that the referendum was unfair, or the public have changed their minds, apply regardless, showing their true intention. And it is an ok position to hold, but they were dishonest about it for a long time.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.0 -
Boris is going as bald as Trump.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1139259132626780160
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Careful. The constituency boundaries were not congruent, as some here pointed out. The mismatch favored Labour, quite possibly crucially so in the event.justin124 said:
The EU elections have never been taken seriously. Last week's Peterborough by election came up with a very different result to what had been implied but two weeks earlier. Some were even predicting that Labour would finish in third place!Foxy said:
Not based on the Euros though!justin124 said:
In Colchester and Wimbledon Labour are the main challengers based on the 2017 results.MarqueeMark said:
Want to bet a gold sovereign on Kevin Foster losing Torbay to the LibDems?Barnesian said:
Cheadle gain from CON : Mary RobinsonMarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Cheltenham gain from CON : Alex Chalk
Chippenham gain from CON : Michelle Donelan
Colchester gain from CON : Will Quince
Cornwall North gain from CON : Scott Mann
Devon North gain from CON : Peter Heaton-Jones
Eastleigh gain from CON : Mims Davies
Hazel Grove gain from CON : William Wragg
Lewes gain from CON : Maria Caulfield
Richmond Park gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith
Sheffield Hallam gain from LAB : Jared O Mara
Southport gain from CON : Damien Moore
St Albans gain from CON : Anne Main
St Austell and Newquay gain from CON : Steve Double
St Ives gain from CON : Derek Thomas
Sutton and Cheam gain from CON : Paul Scully
Taunton Deane gain from CON : Rebecca Pow
Thornbury and Yate gain from CON : Luke Hall
Torbay gain from CON : Kevin Foster
Truro and Falmouth gain from CON : Sarah Newton
Wells gain from CON : James Heappey
Wimbledon gain from CON : Stephen Hammond
Winchester gain from CON : Steve Brine
Yeovil gain from CON : Marcus Fysh
Of the 23 projected LibDem gains, 22 are from the Tories. 11 are in the South West.0 -
Should've gone to Specsavers for sure!TheScreamingEagles said:I ❤️ Rory
twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1139252215842058240?s=21
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I might have believed that, but he's tied himself to the mast on the exit date.Yes May was firm and then folded, but she had so much more time to play with, things were not as frantic as now, and the polling position not so weak before the recantation of position. Posturing, leading to a GE, which is the one situation I see the main body of Tories accepting an extension for, is the plan I think.Stark_Dawning said:Jenks, like many of us on here, thinks that Boris's Brexit plan is to hoodwink everyone into accepting Theresa's deal:
Come October, the odds are on Britain being desperate for no more posturing, no more economic machismo and no more fantasies about new trade deals. It will need one almighty climbdown, in favour of some version of May’s Brexit deal. If Johnson can deploy his charm to persuade the nation and its parliament to follow where common sense and circumstance force him to go, I will be the first to cheer. That is as far as my optimism can go.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/13/boris-johnson-tories-labour-voters0 -
No but they will very starkly be the ones ensuring no deal. No ERG cover; just Lab driving us off the cliff.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.0 -
justin124 said:
I suspect the ten who voted for the Labour motion yesterday would be with Grieve.TOPPING said:
What are the stats? I thought the Soubry lot going had been counted in the three seat majority. So that's Grieve plus who else? I think every other Tory plus the DUP vote yes plus what, a handful (no more) Lab MPs? I think it passes.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
That was to prevent no deal. This would be a deal.0 -
Thanks.kle4 said:
A great deal, too much to transcribe.Benpointer said:
What does it say under 'Prorogue'?kle4 said:Nooooo! This makes my hardcopy of Erskine May no longer cool!
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1139177106267693056
It opens quite clearly that 'the prorogation of parliament is a prerogative act of the Crown.
In terms of procedure this is either by a commission (preceded by a proclamation) or by a proclamation alone. The Queen may issue a proclamation giving notice of her intention that parliament shall meet for the dispatch of business on any date afte rthe date of the proclmation, and parliament then stands prorogued to that day, notwithstanding the previous prorogation.
Those are just random snippets (which, regretfully, now everyone will be able to view) but in any case I don't think the main objection is the legality of any prorogation.0 -
We seem to be assuming a GE too easily. At such an unpredictable time for both the main parties and the ever shifting geography of support, there will be a lot of opposition.0
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If Hancock and Javid pull out before the next round, it would probably be very close between Raab and Stewart to stay in the race.0
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I am well aware of that - but estimates of Labour's share in the Peterborough constituency on 23rd May - as distinct from the local authority boundaries - came up with 22%. Last week Labour polled 31%.Peter_the_Punter said:
Careful. The constituency boundaries were not congruent, as some here pointed out. The mismatch favored Labour, quite possibly crucially so in the event.justin124 said:
The EU elections have never been taken seriously. Last week's Peterborough by election came up with a very different result to what had been implied but two weeks earlier. Some were even predicting that Labour would finish in third place!Foxy said:
Not based on the Euros though!justin124 said:
In Colchester and Wimbledon Labour are the main challengers based on the 2017 results.MarqueeMark said:
Want to bet a gold sovereign on Kevin Foster losing Torbay to the LibDems?Barnesian said:
Cheadle gain from CON : Mary RobinsonMarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Cheltenham gain from CON : Alex Chalk
Chippenham gain from CON : Michelle Donelan
Colchester gain from CON : Will Quince
Cornwall North gain from CON : Scott Mann
Devon North gain from CON : Peter Heaton-Jones
Eastleigh gain from CON : Mims Davies
Hazel Grove gain from CON : William Wragg
Lewes gain from CON : Maria Caulfield
Richmond Park gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith
Sheffield Hallam gain from LAB : Jared O Mara
Southport gain from CON : Damien Moore
St Albans gain from CON : Anne Main
St Austell and Newquay gain from CON : Steve Double
St Ives gain from CON : Derek Thomas
Sutton and Cheam gain from CON : Paul Scully
Taunton Deane gain from CON : Rebecca Pow
Thornbury and Yate gain from CON : Luke Hall
Torbay gain from CON : Kevin Foster
Truro and Falmouth gain from CON : Sarah Newton
Wells gain from CON : James Heappey
Wimbledon gain from CON : Stephen Hammond
Winchester gain from CON : Steve Brine
Yeovil gain from CON : Marcus Fysh
Of the 23 projected LibDem gains, 22 are from the Tories. 11 are in the South West.0 -
In the early weeks and months following the referendum there was, I think, a decent amount of support amongst Remainers for the implementation of the democratic decision. This dwindled as the incoherence of the Leave side became increasingly apparent.kle4 said:
Which I don't dispute, but please don't insult our intelligence by suggesting a great many of those insisting on a new referendum ever had any intention of doing otherwise - the reasoning of many of them that any deal is not as good as the deal we have, or that the referendum was unfair, or the public have changed their minds, apply regardless, showing their true intention. And it is an ok position to hold, but they were dishonest about it for a long time.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
You'd have to be a pretty indulgent remainer now though to tolerate the planless pantomime that Brexit has become.0 -
What Deal are the EU going to agree that ERG are also going to vote for? No such deal exists, nor is ever likely to.TOPPING said:
No but they will very starkly be the ones ensuring no deal. No ERG cover; just Lab driving us off the cliff.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.0 -
I think the word is honorable.Peter_the_Punter said:
In the early weeks and months following the referendum there was, I think, a decent amount of support amongst Remainers for the implementation of the democratic decision. This dwindled as the incoherence of the Leave side became increasingly apparent.kle4 said:
Which I don't dispute, but please don't insult our intelligence by suggesting a great many of those insisting on a new referendum ever had any intention of doing otherwise - the reasoning of many of them that any deal is not as good as the deal we have, or that the referendum was unfair, or the public have changed their minds, apply regardless, showing their true intention. And it is an ok position to hold, but they were dishonest about it for a long time.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
You'd have to be a pretty indulgent remainer now though to tolerate the planless pantomime that Brexit has become.0 -
ok...noted.justin124 said:
I am well aware of that - but estimates of Labour's share in the Peterborough constituency on 23rd May - as distinct from the local authority boundaries - came up with 22%. Last week Labour polled 31%.Peter_the_Punter said:
Careful. The constituency boundaries were not congruent, as some here pointed out. The mismatch favored Labour, quite possibly crucially so in the event.justin124 said:
The EU elections have never been taken seriously. Last week's Peterborough by election came up with a very different result to what had been implied but two weeks earlier. Some were even predicting that Labour would finish in third place!Foxy said:
Not based on the Euros though!justin124 said:
In Colchester and Wimbledon Labour are the main challengers based on the 2017 results.MarqueeMark said:
Want to bet a gold sovereign on Kevin Foster losing Torbay to the LibDems?Barnesian said:
Cheadle gain from CON : Mary RobinsonMarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Cheltenham gain from CON : Alex Chalk
Chippenham gain from CON : Michelle Donelan
Colchester gain from CON : Will Quince
Cornwall North gain from CON : Scott Mann
Devon North gain from CON : Peter Heaton-Jones
Eastleigh gain from CON : Mims Davies
Hazel Grove gain from CON : William Wragg
Lewes gain from CON : Maria Caulfield
Richmond Park gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith
Sheffield Hallam gain from LAB : Jared O Mara
Southport gain from CON : Damien Moore
St Albans gain from CON : Anne Main
St Austell and Newquay gain from CON : Steve Double
St Ives gain from CON : Derek Thomas
Sutton and Cheam gain from CON : Paul Scully
Taunton Deane gain from CON : Rebecca Pow
Thornbury and Yate gain from CON : Luke Hall
Torbay gain from CON : Kevin Foster
Truro and Falmouth gain from CON : Sarah Newton
Wells gain from CON : James Heappey
Wimbledon gain from CON : Stephen Hammond
Winchester gain from CON : Steve Brine
Yeovil gain from CON : Marcus Fysh
Of the 23 projected LibDem gains, 22 are from the Tories. 11 are in the South West.0 -
If you like. Let's all go and honorably jump off the cliff together.Luckyguy1983 said:
I think the word is honorable.Peter_the_Punter said:
In the early weeks and months following the referendum there was, I think, a decent amount of support amongst Remainers for the implementation of the democratic decision. This dwindled as the incoherence of the Leave side became increasingly apparent.kle4 said:
Which I don't dispute, but please don't insult our intelligence by suggesting a great many of those insisting on a new referendum ever had any intention of doing otherwise - the reasoning of many of them that any deal is not as good as the deal we have, or that the referendum was unfair, or the public have changed their minds, apply regardless, showing their true intention. And it is an ok position to hold, but they were dishonest about it for a long time.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
You'd have to be a pretty indulgent remainer now though to tolerate the planless pantomime that Brexit has become.0 -
You're definitely not British.Luckyguy1983 said:
I think the word is honorable.Peter_the_Punter said:
In the early weeks and months following the referendum there was, I think, a decent amount of support amongst Remainers for the implementation of the democratic decision. This dwindled as the incoherence of the Leave side became increasingly apparent.kle4 said:
Which I don't dispute, but please don't insult our intelligence by suggesting a great many of those insisting on a new referendum ever had any intention of doing otherwise - the reasoning of many of them that any deal is not as good as the deal we have, or that the referendum was unfair, or the public have changed their minds, apply regardless, showing their true intention. And it is an ok position to hold, but they were dishonest about it for a long time.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
You'd have to be a pretty indulgent remainer now though to tolerate the planless pantomime that Brexit has become.
Honorable? WITHOUT A U?1 -
Agreed. Even in the Euros, the Lib Dems's performance in Devon and Cornwall was pretty poor, whereas it was very strong in the Stockbroker Belt. They've lost the eurosceptic radicals of the South West, but gained the wealthy who hate Brexit.rcs1000 said:
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.0 -
Do you expect the ERG and DUP to vote for May's Deal, repacked as Boris's?TOPPING said:
No but they will very starkly be the ones ensuring no deal. No ERG cover; just Lab driving us off the cliff.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
I cannot see it myself.0 -
Oh, it's not technically easy, but it is one of the outcomes that can come about simply because they cannot come to agreement and some people, it doesn't have to be many, are pushed too far. Rather than something they specifically agree upon.IanB2 said:We seem to be assuming a GE too easily. At such an unpredictable time for both the main parties and the ever shifting geography of support, there will be a lot of opposition.
Tories pivot to no deal, enough Tory MPs say they will support a VONC. No one else can form a government, so GE occurs. Unless one thinks that even though they know it is a risk right now Labour would not support a VONC in the government, it seems relatively plausible. Or simply if, however boldly, PM Boris thinks he would win and says he wants one, as others have noted can Labour dare say they don't want one?0 -
Many remainers have voted for the deal, undoubtedly. Many times, and if not for some few leavers we would have left now as a result, the lion's share of the blame must fall on them. But the reasoning of many about how it was fundamentally always the wrong decision, how any deal is not worth it, these arguments are refighting the decision to Brexit at all, they clearly would have applied even if Labour had been given the opportunity to negotiate its own deal, and therefore give the lie to the idea those using those arguments would ever, in a million years, have voted to Brexit.Peter_the_Punter said:
In the early weeks and months following the referendum there was, I think, a decent amount of support amongst Remainers for the implementation of the democratic decision. This dwindled as the incoherence of the Leave side became increasingly apparent.kle4 said:
Which I don't dispute, but please don't insult our intelligence by suggesting a great many of those insisting on a new referendum ever had any intention of doing otherwise - the reasoning of many of them that any deal is not as good as the deal we have, or that the referendum was unfair, or the public have changed their minds, apply regardless, showing their true intention. And it is an ok position to hold, but they were dishonest about it for a long time.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
You'd have to be a pretty indulgent remainer now though to tolerate the planless pantomime that Brexit has become.0 -
Pre 18th century English.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're definitely not British.Luckyguy1983 said:
I think the word is honorable.Peter_the_Punter said:
In the early weeks and months following the referendum there was, I think, a decent amount of support amongst Remainers for the implementation of the democratic decision. This dwindled as the incoherence of the Leave side became increasingly apparent.kle4 said:
Which I don't dispute, but please don't insult our intelligence by suggesting a great many of those insisting on a new referendum ever had any intention of doing otherwise - the reasoning of many of them that any deal is not as good as the deal we have, or that the referendum was unfair, or the public have changed their minds, apply regardless, showing their true intention. And it is an ok position to hold, but they were dishonest about it for a long time.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
You'd have to be a pretty indulgent remainer now though to tolerate the planless pantomime that Brexit has become.
Honorable? WITHOUT A U?0 -
For me in the SW the remarkable thing was just how well the Greens did in the Euros even with the LDs surging.0
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That's a different matter. Probably not but possibly. But if they do, then Lab would be in a very different and difficult position.Foxy said:
Do you expect the ERG and DUP to vote for May's Deal, repacked as Boris's?TOPPING said:
No but they will very starkly be the ones ensuring no deal. No ERG cover; just Lab driving us off the cliff.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
I cannot see it myself.0 -
It depends what you mean by SW. I expect the LDs to do well in the proximal SW. 50 seats seems a reasonable target.Sean_F said:
Agreed. Even in the Euros, the Lib Dems's performance in Devon and Cornwall was pretty poor, whereas it was very strong in the Stockbroker Belt. They've lost the eurosceptic radicals of the South West, but gained the wealthy who hate Brexit.rcs1000 said:
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.
I am off to see Swinson and Davey at the East Midlands husings on Saturday, shall report back.0 -
It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.1
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We've moved on.Sean_F said:
Pre 18th century English.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're definitely not British.Luckyguy1983 said:
I think the word is honorable.Peter_the_Punter said:
In the early weeks and months following the referendum there was, I think, a decent amount of support amongst Remainers for the implementation of the democratic decision. This dwindled as the incoherence of the Leave side became increasingly apparent.kle4 said:
Which I don't dispute, but please don't insult our intelligence by suggesting a great many of those insisting on a new referendum ever had any intention of doing otherwise - the reasoning of many of them that any deal is not as good as the deal we have, or that the referendum was unfair, or the public have changed their minds, apply regardless, showing their true intention. And it is an ok position to hold, but they were dishonest about it for a long time.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
You'd have to be a pretty indulgent remainer now though to tolerate the planless pantomime that Brexit has become.
Honorable? WITHOUT A U?
I know you Leavers like to live the past but we're in the 21sr century.
Do you also use 'V' for 'U'?0 -
Many of the ERG have acted like arseholes. But, they do have their equivalents on the other side of the argument.kle4 said:
Many remainers have voted for the deal, undoubtedly. Many times, and if not for some few leavers we would have left now as a result, the lion's share of the blame must fall on them. But the reasoning of many about how it was fundamentally always the wrong decision, how any deal is not worth it, these arguments are refighting the decision to Brexit at all, they clearly would have applied even if Labour had been given the opportunity to negotiate its own deal, and therefore give the lie to the idea those using those arguments would ever, in a million years, have voted to Brexit.Peter_the_Punter said:
In the early weeks and months following the referendum there was, I think, a decent amount of support amongst Remainers for the implementation of the democratic decision. This dwindled as the incoherence of the Leave side became increasingly apparent.kle4 said:
Which I don't dispute, but please don't insult our intelligence by suggesting a great many of those insisting on a new referendum ever had any intention of doing otherwise - the reasoning of many of them that any deal is not as good as the deal we have, or that the referendum was unfair, or the public have changed their minds, apply regardless, showing their true intention. And it is an ok position to hold, but they were dishonest about it for a long time.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
You'd have to be a pretty indulgent remainer now though to tolerate the planless pantomime that Brexit has become.0 -
There are supposedly something like 80-90 members of the ERG I believe. Most of the ERG therefore backed the deal. But the self proclaimed spartans clearly won't shift, their identity is now focused on rejecting it, and there's no way to repackage it without them noticing.Foxy said:
Do you expect the ERG and DUP to vote for May's Deal, repacked as Boris's?TOPPING said:
No but they will very starkly be the ones ensuring no deal. No ERG cover; just Lab driving us off the cliff.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
I cannot see it myself.0 -
Some seats like St Albans, that they've never won, look like pretty nailed-on gains.rcs1000 said:
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.0 -
I have never held back my scorn of the Grievers and likeminded sorts, who escape criticism because they are more intelligent and effective, while being at least as fanatical and willing to damn all in pursuit of their goals.Sean_F said:
Many of the ERG have acted like arseholes. But, they do have their equivalents on the other side of the argument.kle4 said:
Many remainers have voted for the deal, undoubtedly. Many times, and if not for some few leavers we would have left now as a result, the lion's share of the blame must fall on them. But the reasoning of many about how it was fundamentally always the wrong decision, how any deal is not worth it, these arguments are refighting the decision to Brexit at all, they clearly would have applied even if Labour had been given the opportunity to negotiate its own deal, and therefore give the lie to the idea those using those arguments would ever, in a million years, have voted to Brexit.Peter_the_Punter said:
In the early weeks and months following the referendum there was, I think, a decent amount of support amongst Remainers for the implementation of the democratic decision. This dwindled as the incoherence of the Leave side became increasingly apparent.kle4 said:
Which I don't dispute, but please don't insult our intelligence by suggesting a great many of those insisting on a new referendum ever had any intention of doing otherwise - the reasoning of many of them that any deal is not as good as the deal we have, or that the referendum was unfair, or the public have changed their minds, apply regardless, showing their true intention. And it is an ok position to hold, but they were dishonest about it for a long time.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
You'd have to be a pretty indulgent remainer now though to tolerate the planless pantomime that Brexit has become.0 -
The Lab vote and whip have been very effective in previous votes.TOPPING said:
That's a different matter. Probably not but possibly. But if they do, then Lab would be in a very different and difficult position.Foxy said:
Do you expect the ERG and DUP to vote for May's Deal, repacked as Boris's?TOPPING said:
No but they will very starkly be the ones ensuring no deal. No ERG cover; just Lab driving us off the cliff.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
I cannot see it myself.0 -
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*0 -
You've just solved Brexit! Let's leave the EU by renaming it the EV.TheScreamingEagles said:Do you also use 'V' for 'U'?
0 -
It's not such a silly idea.williamglenn said:
You've just solved Brexit! Let's leave the EU by renaming it the EV.TheScreamingEagles said:Do you also use 'V' for 'U'?
If the EU were called the European Alliance (EA) instead, and not committed to ever closer union, we'd never have left.1 -
Look out for North Devon and Batterseawilliamglenn said:
Some seats like St Albans, that they've never won, look like pretty nailed-on gains.rcs1000 said:
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.0 -
The Bastards.Sean_F said:
Many of the ERG have acted like arseholes. But, they do have their equivalents on the other side of the argument.kle4 said:
Many remainers have voted for the deal, undoubtedly. Many times, and if not for some few leavers we would have left now as a result, the lion's share of the blame must fall on them. But the reasoning of many about how it was fundamentally always the wrong decision, how any deal is not worth it, these arguments are refighting the decision to Brexit at all, they clearly would have applied even if Labour had been given the opportunity to negotiate its own deal, and therefore give the lie to the idea those using those arguments would ever, in a million years, have voted to Brexit.Peter_the_Punter said:
In the early weeks and months following the referendum there was, I think, a decent amount of support amongst Remainers for the implementation of the democratic decision. This dwindled as the incoherence of the Leave side became increasingly apparent.kle4 said:
Which I don't dispute, but please don't insult our intelligence by suggesting a great many of those insisting on a new referendum ever had any intention of doing otherwise - the reasoning of many of them that any deal is not as good as the deal we have, or that the referendum was unfair, or the public have changed their minds, apply regardless, showing their true intention. And it is an ok position to hold, but they were dishonest about it for a long time.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
You'd have to be a pretty indulgent remainer now though to tolerate the planless pantomime that Brexit has become.
And the New Bastards.0 -
Would only need a few which is all it has ever been. But that few would do it.Foxy said:
The Lab vote and whip have been very effective in previous votes.TOPPING said:
That's a different matter. Probably not but possibly. But if they do, then Lab would be in a very different and difficult position.Foxy said:
Do you expect the ERG and DUP to vote for May's Deal, repacked as Boris's?TOPPING said:
No but they will very starkly be the ones ensuring no deal. No ERG cover; just Lab driving us off the cliff.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
I cannot see it myself.0 -
Must say The Saj underwhelmed a bit in the initial vote - does he have a shot at overhauling Hunt, Give and Raab in the race to see who can lose to Boris?0
-
I've heard cocaine can be a real pick me up if he needs an energy boost. Too easy.williamglenn said:0 -
I ʃuʃpect he dothTheScreamingEagles said:
We've moved on.Sean_F said:
Pre 18th century English.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're definitely not British.Luckyguy1983 said:
I think the word is honorable.Peter_the_Punter said:
In the early weeks and months following the referendum there was, I think, a decent amount of support amongst Remainers for the implementation of the democratic decision. This dwindled as the incoherence of the Leave side became increasingly apparent.kle4 said:
Which I don't dispute, but please don't insult our intelligence by suggesting a great many of those insisting on a new referendum ever had any intention of doing otherwise - the reasoning of many of them that any deal is not as good as the deal we have, or that the referendum was unfair, or the public have changed their minds, apply regardless, showing their true intention. And it is an ok position to hold, but they were dishonest about it for a long time.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
You'd have to be a pretty indulgent remainer now though to tolerate the planless pantomime that Brexit has become.
Honorable? WITHOUT A U?
I know you Leavers like to live the past but we're in the 21sr century.
Do you also use 'V' for 'U'?0 -
The Daily Borisgraph speaks.williamglenn said:0 -
I don’t want no deal particularly, I just want the people who are trying to stop Brexit to be punished for their lies and cowardiceTOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*0 -
How’s Boris’ fuck business party coming on?0
-
I think the DUP might, if they got assurances from Boris that he would abrogate the treaty in the event that the EU failed to follow through on their obligations. (The genuine threat of No Deal might well be enough to push them that way.)Foxy said:
Do you expect the ERG and DUP to vote for May's Deal, repacked as Boris's?TOPPING said:
No but they will very starkly be the ones ensuring no deal. No ERG cover; just Lab driving us off the cliff.Foxy said:
Well, opinions change!kle4 said:
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.Foxy said:
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.isam said:If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
I cannot see it myself.
That might also assuage some of the Spartans - "Hey, the DUP are on board, we now have cover."
But the truth is that no-one knows. I0 -
Fake news.TOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*
I don't want to punish leave voters.
I want to punish and humiliate leave voters. I want them to see their leave vote is ultimately responsible for the UK joining a USE.
A true victory is to make your enemy see they were wrong to oppose you in the first place. To force them to acknowledge your greatness.0 -
They could and probably would insist on a short extension first.kle4 said:
Oh, it's not technically easy, but it is one of the outcomes that can come about simply because they cannot come to agreement and some people, it doesn't have to be many, are pushed too far. Rather than something they specifically agree upon.IanB2 said:We seem to be assuming a GE too easily. At such an unpredictable time for both the main parties and the ever shifting geography of support, there will be a lot of opposition.
Tories pivot to no deal, enough Tory MPs say they will support a VONC. No one else can form a government, so GE occurs. Unless one thinks that even though they know it is a risk right now Labour would not support a VONC in the government, it seems relatively plausible. Or simply if, however boldly, PM Boris thinks he would win and says he wants one, as others have noted can Labour dare say they don't want one?0 -
I think that would be an inevitable consequence regardless - we could not do no deal prep legislation while we were busy fighting a GE. So if we get one, the PM asks the EU for one on that basis.eek said:
They could and probably would insist on a short extension first.kle4 said:
Oh, it's not technically easy, but it is one of the outcomes that can come about simply because they cannot come to agreement and some people, it doesn't have to be many, are pushed too far. Rather than something they specifically agree upon.IanB2 said:We seem to be assuming a GE too easily. At such an unpredictable time for both the main parties and the ever shifting geography of support, there will be a lot of opposition.
Tories pivot to no deal, enough Tory MPs say they will support a VONC. No one else can form a government, so GE occurs. Unless one thinks that even though they know it is a risk right now Labour would not support a VONC in the government, it seems relatively plausible. Or simply if, however boldly, PM Boris thinks he would win and says he wants one, as others have noted can Labour dare say they don't want one?0 -
When is the LD vote held and result expected?Foxy said:
It depends what you mean by SW. I expect the LDs to do well in the proximal SW. 50 seats seems a reasonable target.Sean_F said:
Agreed. Even in the Euros, the Lib Dems's performance in Devon and Cornwall was pretty poor, whereas it was very strong in the Stockbroker Belt. They've lost the eurosceptic radicals of the South West, but gained the wealthy who hate Brexit.rcs1000 said:
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.
I am off to see Swinson and Davey at the East Midlands husings on Saturday, shall report back.0 -
I doubt that - the anti-Tory vote is again likely to be split . The seat was Labour -held from 1997 -2005 and is an example - like Watford -of where the LibDems outperform at local elections.williamglenn said:
Some seats like St Albans, that they've never won, look like pretty nailed-on gains.rcs1000 said:
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.0 -
I stand corrected.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake news.TOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*
I don't want to punish leave voters.
I want to punish and humiliate leave voters. I want them to see their leave vote is ultimately responsible for the UK joining a USE.
A true victory is to make your enemy see they were wrong to oppose you in the first place. To force them to acknowledge your greatness.0 -
IMHO, St. Alban's (a constituency I know very well) will flatter to deceive. They just can't turn their support at local level in St. Alban's, Watford, SW Herts, into support at Parliamentary level. And, in the case of St. Alban's and Watford, they've never been ever able to persuade Labour voters to back them tactically. The Asian voters of Watford, and the white working class voters of London Colney simply won't support them.williamglenn said:
Some seats like St Albans, that they've never won, look like pretty nailed-on gains.rcs1000 said:
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.0 -
And you seem to be struggling with cognitive dissonance because many of them are ostensibly committed Brexiteers.isam said:
I don’t want no deal particularly, I just want the people who are trying to stop Brexit to be punished for their lies and cowardiceTOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*0 -
Hah - day after we should expect the new PM I think - 23 JulyBenpointer said:
When is the LD vote held and result expected?Foxy said:
It depends what you mean by SW. I expect the LDs to do well in the proximal SW. 50 seats seems a reasonable target.Sean_F said:
Agreed. Even in the Euros, the Lib Dems's performance in Devon and Cornwall was pretty poor, whereas it was very strong in the Stockbroker Belt. They've lost the eurosceptic radicals of the South West, but gained the wealthy who hate Brexit.rcs1000 said:
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.
I am off to see Swinson and Davey at the East Midlands husings on Saturday, shall report back.
https://www.libdems.org.uk/leadership-timetable0 -
https://youtu.be/DAp-9N2VR_oPeter_the_Punter said:If you like. Let's all go and honorably jump off the cliff together.
0 -
Not a chance in Battersea!Fenman said:
Look out for North Devon and Batterseawilliamglenn said:
Some seats like St Albans, that they've never won, look like pretty nailed-on gains.rcs1000 said:
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.0 -
And Nigel plays all the clips of Boris saying we are leaving on October 31st on a loop throughout the campaign...kle4 said:
I think that would be an inevitable consequence regardless - we could not do no deal prep legislation while we were busy fighting a GE. So if we get one, the PM asks the EU for one on that basis.eek said:
They could and probably would insist on a short extension first.kle4 said:
Oh, it's not technically easy, but it is one of the outcomes that can come about simply because they cannot come to agreement and some people, it doesn't have to be many, are pushed too far. Rather than something they specifically agree upon.IanB2 said:We seem to be assuming a GE too easily. At such an unpredictable time for both the main parties and the ever shifting geography of support, there will be a lot of opposition.
Tories pivot to no deal, enough Tory MPs say they will support a VONC. No one else can form a government, so GE occurs. Unless one thinks that even though they know it is a risk right now Labour would not support a VONC in the government, it seems relatively plausible. Or simply if, however boldly, PM Boris thinks he would win and says he wants one, as others have noted can Labour dare say they don't want one?0 -
My summary on this market is
Backed BoJo at average odds of @4.09, Laid him @3.18
Backed Hunt @24.89, Laid at @14.77
Backed Sajid @30, Laid @29.27
Backed Mogg @ 8.37, Laid @7.93
Backed Hammond @ 6.6 (sob), Laid @ some ungodly high number when I cashed out at one point. (85)
Naked Lays on Leadsom @10.62 and Gove @10
I have successfully picked up the pennies in front of the steamroller. I am green on all the remaining contenders bar Sajid. A huge slice of luck for me I think rather than skill.
Please don't ask me about my Next Labour Leader book.0 -
For the avoidance of doubt and before a new PB meme is created I really don't want that to happen.TOPPING said:
I stand corrected.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake news.TOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*
I don't want to punish leave voters.
I want to punish and humiliate leave voters. I want them to see their leave vote is ultimately responsible for the UK joining a USE.
A true victory is to make your enemy see they were wrong to oppose you in the first place. To force them to acknowledge your greatness.
I'd love for us to leave with a deal, I just think we've exhausted the EU's patience and we won't get an extension in October and we'll leave without a deal.
That's when the shit hits the fan, and unfortunately it isn't a Dyson bladeless fan.0 -
That's fair: the LibDems are likely to do reasonably well in towns like Wells, even as they struggle in Corwall and Devon.Foxy said:
It depends what you mean by SW. I expect the LDs to do well in the proximal SW. 50 seats seems a reasonable target.Sean_F said:
Agreed. Even in the Euros, the Lib Dems's performance in Devon and Cornwall was pretty poor, whereas it was very strong in the Stockbroker Belt. They've lost the eurosceptic radicals of the South West, but gained the wealthy who hate Brexit.rcs1000 said:
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.
I am off to see Swinson and Davey at the East Midlands husings on Saturday, shall report back.0 -
Ta!kle4 said:
Hah - day after we should expect the new PM I think - 23 JulyBenpointer said:
When is the LD vote held and result expected?Foxy said:
It depends what you mean by SW. I expect the LDs to do well in the proximal SW. 50 seats seems a reasonable target.Sean_F said:
Agreed. Even in the Euros, the Lib Dems's performance in Devon and Cornwall was pretty poor, whereas it was very strong in the Stockbroker Belt. They've lost the eurosceptic radicals of the South West, but gained the wealthy who hate Brexit.rcs1000 said:
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.
I am off to see Swinson and Davey at the East Midlands husings on Saturday, shall report back.
https://www.libdems.org.uk/leadership-timetable0 -
That means punishing and humiliating your own people, in the main. That would be a very Pyrrhic victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake news.TOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*
I don't want to punish leave voters.
I want to punish and humiliate leave voters. I want them to see their leave vote is ultimately responsible for the UK joining a USE.
A true victory is to make your enemy see they were wrong to oppose you in the first place. To force them to acknowledge your greatness.0 -
Any uptodate rumours as to how many Tory MPs will resign the Whip if Johnson wins the leadership?0
-
-
I think that before the Euro elections you would be correct (and given the usual caveats) but the numbers from St Albans were astonishing and arch Brexiteer Ann Main is in one of the worst seats given the present climate :Sean_F said:
IMHO, St. Alban's (a constituency I know very well) will flatter to deceive. They just can't turn their support at local level in St. Alban's, Watford, SW Herts, into support at Parliamentary level. And, in the case of St. Alban's and Watford, they've never been ever able to persuade Labour voters to back them tactically. The Asian voters of Watford, and the white working class voters of London Colney simply won't support them.williamglenn said:
Some seats like St Albans, that they've never won, look like pretty nailed-on gains.rcs1000 said:
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.
https://www.stalbans.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/elections/EU2019/0 -
I think in places like St Albans it will be Tory -> Lib Dem switchers that are decisive, rather than Labour tactical votes.Sean_F said:
IMHO, St. Alban's (a constituency I know very well) will flatter to deceive. They just can't turn their support at local level in St. Alban's, Watford, SW Herts, into support at Parliamentary level. And, in the case of St. Alban's and Watford, they've never been ever able to persuade Labour voters to back them tactically. The Asian voters of Watford, and the white working class voters of London Colney simply won't support them.williamglenn said:
Some seats like St Albans, that they've never won, look like pretty nailed-on gains.rcs1000 said:
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.0 -
Perhaps - but how much he does so, and campaigns against him, surely will be contingent on if Boris is openly campaigning on a no deal platform and was forced into this route by parliament trying to block that.eek said:
And Nigel plays all the clips of Boris saying we are leaving on October 31st on a loop throughout the campaign...kle4 said:
I think that would be an inevitable consequence regardless - we could not do no deal prep legislation while we were busy fighting a GE. So if we get one, the PM asks the EU for one on that basis.eek said:
They could and probably would insist on a short extension first.kle4 said:
Oh, it's not technically easy, but it is one of the outcomes that can come about simply because they cannot come to agreement and some people, it doesn't have to be many, are pushed too far. Rather than something they specifically agree upon.IanB2 said:We seem to be assuming a GE too easily. At such an unpredictable time for both the main parties and the ever shifting geography of support, there will be a lot of opposition.
Tories pivot to no deal, enough Tory MPs say they will support a VONC. No one else can form a government, so GE occurs. Unless one thinks that even though they know it is a risk right now Labour would not support a VONC in the government, it seems relatively plausible. Or simply if, however boldly, PM Boris thinks he would win and says he wants one, as others have noted can Labour dare say they don't want one?
While I don't think Boris would win such an election it does seem likely that the BXP effect would be blunted and Tories would be far far larger, so the only effect such a move by Farage would have is to ensure a Labour led government which sees us to Remain.
Farage may not really care about exiting, he sure objects to anybody trying to do so, and perhaps he does want to replace the Tory party, but a Tory party fighting a no deal campaign would be large enough to not be about to be replaced, even though I think they would lose.0 -
I've not heard of that constiuency. What was the result there last time?Fenman said:
Look out for North Devon and Batterseawilliamglenn said:
Some seats like St Albans, that they've never won, look like pretty nailed-on gains.rcs1000 said:
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.0 -
Hello Dukat.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake news.TOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*
I don't want to punish leave voters.
I want to punish and humiliate leave voters. I want them to see their leave vote is ultimately responsible for the UK joining a USE.
A true victory is to make your enemy see they were wrong to oppose you in the first place. To force them to acknowledge your greatness.
0 -
Not at all. I think the ERG should have voted for the deal, but they were elected as hard brexiteers, so it wasn’t a surprise they weren’t satisfied with it. The Labour and TIG MPs were elected as Remainers who had accepted and would honour the result, but used the ERGs idealism as a shield to connive to prevent us leaving at all.williamglenn said:
And you seem to be struggling with cognitive dissonance because many of them are ostensibly committed Brexiteers.isam said:
I don’t want no deal particularly, I just want the people who are trying to stop Brexit to be punished for their lies and cowardiceTOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*0 -
There is one man who will always serve under any Tory PM no matter how different his private opinions may be.
Behold ladies and gentlemen, the most cuckolded wet Tory ever...... David Mundell.Breaking: Just spoken to @DavidMundellDCT about @BorisJohnson + whether he would serve in future Johnson government, if asked. The @ScotSecofState had given strong impression he wouldn't. You can hear what he previously said + his reply to me here. #conservativeleadership https://t.co/sZDfZ4uN9l
— Peter MacMahon (@petermacmahon) June 13, 20190 -
That's Brexit all over, a Pyrrhic victory.Sean_F said:
That means punishing and humiliating your own people, in the main. That would be a very Pyrrhic victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake news.TOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*
I don't want to punish leave voters.
I want to punish and humiliate leave voters. I want them to see their leave vote is ultimately responsible for the UK joining a USE.
A true victory is to make your enemy see they were wrong to oppose you in the first place. To force them to acknowledge your greatness.
Is one of the great ironies of Brexit that the UK is now home to one of the largest Pro EU movements in Europe.0 -
I imagine they will all quietly slip away into the loyal throng and keep their heads down.justin124 said:Any uptodate rumours as to how many Tory MPs will resign the Whip if Johnson wins the leadership?
0 -
Labour MPs were elected on a manifesto commitment to oppose the Tories' Brexit approach and retain the benefits of the SM/CU, so they had every justification to vote against it.isam said:
Not at all. I think the ERG should have voted for the deal, but they were elected as hard brexiteers, so it wasn’t a surprise they weren’t satisfied with it. The Labour and TIG MPs were elected as Remainers who had accepted the result, but used the ERGs idealism as a shield while working to prevent us leaving at allwilliamglenn said:
And you seem to be struggling with cognitive dissonance because many of them are ostensibly committed Brexiteers.isam said:
I don’t want no deal particularly, I just want the people who are trying to stop Brexit to be punished for their lies and cowardiceTOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*0 -
Yay, someone got the reference.RobD said:
Hello Dukat.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake news.TOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*
I don't want to punish leave voters.
I want to punish and humiliate leave voters. I want them to see their leave vote is ultimately responsible for the UK joining a USE.
A true victory is to make your enemy see they were wrong to oppose you in the first place. To force them to acknowledge your greatness.0 -
That's pretty big news. She's been absolutely epic in a very difficult role.FrancisUrquhart said:Sarah Sanders standing down.
1 -
Even the likes of Grieve, Lee and Greening?Benpointer said:
I imagine they will all quietly slip away into the loyal throng and keep their heads down.justin124 said:Any uptodate rumours as to how many Tory MPs will resign the Whip if Johnson wins the leadership?
0 -
I suggest we punish and humiliate David Cameron's Remain campaign by throwing his deal back in his face and joining the Euro.Sean_F said:
That means punishing and humiliating your own people, in the main. That would be a very Pyrrhic victory.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake news.TOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*
I don't want to punish leave voters.
I want to punish and humiliate leave voters. I want them to see their leave vote is ultimately responsible for the UK joining a USE.
A true victory is to make your enemy see they were wrong to oppose you in the first place. To force them to acknowledge your greatness.0 -
So why do we hear that they would have voted for it had the ERG done so? That has been the excuse given for themwilliamglenn said:
Labour MPs were elected on a manifesto commitment to oppose the Tories' Brexit approach and retain the benefits of the SM/CU, so they had every justification to vote against it.isam said:
Not at all. I think the ERG should have voted for the deal, but they were elected as hard brexiteers, so it wasn’t a surprise they weren’t satisfied with it. The Labour and TIG MPs were elected as Remainers who had accepted the result, but used the ERGs idealism as a shield while working to prevent us leaving at allwilliamglenn said:
And you seem to be struggling with cognitive dissonance because many of them are ostensibly committed Brexiteers.isam said:
I don’t want no deal particularly, I just want the people who are trying to stop Brexit to be punished for their lies and cowardiceTOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*
0 -
A USE is not going to happen now, with strong eurosceptics in government in Italy, Hungary, Poland, and, for different reasons, across the Hanseatic League.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake news.TOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*
I don't want to punish leave voters.
I want to punish and humiliate leave voters. I want them to see their leave vote is ultimately responsible for the UK joining a USE.
A true victory is to make your enemy see they were wrong to oppose you in the first place. To force them to acknowledge your greatness.
Britain might have left EU at the very moment it begins changing into something we could tolerate.0 -
It’s the new Boundary Commission initiative to bring the country back together. In future all English constituencies will consist of one part London & SE commuterland and one part rural.rcs1000 said:
I've not heard of that constiuency. What was the result there last time?Fenman said:
Look out for North Devon and Batterseawilliamglenn said:
Some seats like St Albans, that they've never won, look like pretty nailed-on gains.rcs1000 said:
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.0 -
That's only a handful of potential rebels. Labour would still have whipped against it.isam said:
So why do we hear that they would have voted for it had the ERG done so? That has been the excuse given for themwilliamglenn said:
Labour MPs were elected on a manifesto commitment to oppose the Tories' Brexit approach and retain the benefits of the SM/CU, so they had every justification to vote against it.isam said:
Not at all. I think the ERG should have voted for the deal, but they were elected as hard brexiteers, so it wasn’t a surprise they weren’t satisfied with it. The Labour and TIG MPs were elected as Remainers who had accepted the result, but used the ERGs idealism as a shield while working to prevent us leaving at allwilliamglenn said:
And you seem to be struggling with cognitive dissonance because many of them are ostensibly committed Brexiteers.isam said:
I don’t want no deal particularly, I just want the people who are trying to stop Brexit to be punished for their lies and cowardiceTOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*0 -
I doubt they will find anybody as good to replace her. She is one formidable lady when it comes to dealing with (FAKKKKKKKKE NEWS*) media.rcs1000 said:
That's pretty big news. She's been absolutely epic in a very difficult role.FrancisUrquhart said:Sarah Sanders standing down.
* just to be clear, I am joking.0 -
You’re not the first PB’er to proffer that thought.Byronic said:
A USE is not going to happen now, with strong eurosceptics in government in Italy, Hungary, Poland, and, for different reasons, across the Hanseatic League.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake news.TOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*
I don't want to punish leave voters.
I want to punish and humiliate leave voters. I want them to see their leave vote is ultimately responsible for the UK joining a USE.
A true victory is to make your enemy see they were wrong to oppose you in the first place. To force them to acknowledge your greatness.
Britain might have left EU at the very moment it begins changing into something we could tolerate.0 -
There's still quite a large rural hinterland to St. Alban's constituency, which will deliver a large and loyal Conservative vote at a general election. I'm not saying the Lib Dems can't do it, but I think it will be tough for them.JackW said:
I think that before the Euro elections you would be correct (and given the usual caveats) but the numbers from St Albans were astonishing and arch Brexiteer Ann Main is in one of the worst seats given the present climate :Sean_F said:
IMHO, St. Alban's (a constituency I know very well) will flatter to deceive. They just can't turn their support at local level in St. Alban's, Watford, SW Herts, into support at Parliamentary level. And, in the case of St. Alban's and Watford, they've never been ever able to persuade Labour voters to back them tactically. The Asian voters of Watford, and the white working class voters of London Colney simply won't support them.williamglenn said:
Some seats like St Albans, that they've never won, look like pretty nailed-on gains.rcs1000 said:
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.
https://www.stalbans.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/elections/EU2019/0 -
So it never really was the ERGs fault. I thought as muchwilliamglenn said:
That's only a handful of potential rebels. Labour would still have whipped against it.isam said:
So why do we hear that they would have voted for it had the ERG done so? That has been the excuse given for themwilliamglenn said:
Labour MPs were elected on a manifesto commitment to oppose the Tories' Brexit approach and retain the benefits of the SM/CU, so they had every justification to vote against it.isam said:
Not at all. I think the ERG should have voted for the deal, but they were elected as hard brexiteers, so it wasn’t a surprise they weren’t satisfied with it. The Labour and TIG MPs were elected as Remainers who had accepted the result, but used the ERGs idealism as a shield while working to prevent us leaving at allwilliamglenn said:
And you seem to be struggling with cognitive dissonance because many of them are ostensibly committed Brexiteers.isam said:
I don’t want no deal particularly, I just want the people who are trying to stop Brexit to be punished for their lies and cowardiceTOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*0 -
Frustratingly, I don't know that the EU would change into something Britain was more able to tolerate unless we left (or sought to leave at any rate).IanB2 said:
You’re not the first PB’er to proffer that thought.Byronic said:
A USE is not going to happen now, with strong eurosceptics in government in Italy, Hungary, Poland, and, for different reasons, across the Hanseatic League.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake news.TOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*
I don't want to punish leave voters.
I want to punish and humiliate leave voters. I want them to see their leave vote is ultimately responsible for the UK joining a USE.
A true victory is to make your enemy see they were wrong to oppose you in the first place. To force them to acknowledge your greatness.
Britain might have left EU at the very moment it begins changing into something we could tolerate.1 -
It's my view. Take away the cover of the ERG opposing the deal ("if she can't even convince her own party...") and it makes it very difficult or at least very much more difficult for Lab to oppose. Albeit I accept that is their job.isam said:
So why do we hear that they would have voted for it had the ERG done so? That has been the excuse given for themwilliamglenn said:
Labour MPs were elected on a manifesto commitment to oppose the Tories' Brexit approach and retain the benefits of the SM/CU, so they had every justification to vote against it.isam said:
Not at all. I think the ERG should have voted for the deal, but they were elected as hard brexiteers, so it wasn’t a surprise they weren’t satisfied with it. The Labour and TIG MPs were elected as Remainers who had accepted the result, but used the ERGs idealism as a shield while working to prevent us leaving at allwilliamglenn said:
And you seem to be struggling with cognitive dissonance because many of them are ostensibly committed Brexiteers.isam said:
I don’t want no deal particularly, I just want the people who are trying to stop Brexit to be punished for their lies and cowardiceTOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*0 -
The Conservatives and DUP have a majority so what Labour do is irrelevant if they support the government.isam said:
So it never really was the ERGs fault. I thought as muchwilliamglenn said:
That's only a handful of potential rebels. Labour would still have whipped against it.isam said:
So why do we hear that they would have voted for it had the ERG done so? That has been the excuse given for themwilliamglenn said:
Labour MPs were elected on a manifesto commitment to oppose the Tories' Brexit approach and retain the benefits of the SM/CU, so they had every justification to vote against it.isam said:
Not at all. I think the ERG should have voted for the deal, but they were elected as hard brexiteers, so it wasn’t a surprise they weren’t satisfied with it. The Labour and TIG MPs were elected as Remainers who had accepted the result, but used the ERGs idealism as a shield while working to prevent us leaving at allwilliamglenn said:
And you seem to be struggling with cognitive dissonance because many of them are ostensibly committed Brexiteers.isam said:
I don’t want no deal particularly, I just want the people who are trying to stop Brexit to be punished for their lies and cowardiceTOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*0 -
The LD should not contest the seat to give a pro EU Labour candidate the best chance as a one off decapitation strategy!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Every time an ERGer said Mrs May's deal was worse than remaining they gave cover for others to oppose the deal.TOPPING said:
It's my view. Take away the cover of the ERG opposing the deal ("if she can't even convince her own party...") and it makes it very difficult or at least very much more difficult for Lab to oppose. Albeit I accept that is their job.isam said:
So why do we hear that they would have voted for it had the ERG done so? That has been the excuse given for themwilliamglenn said:
Labour MPs were elected on a manifesto commitment to oppose the Tories' Brexit approach and retain the benefits of the SM/CU, so they had every justification to vote against it.isam said:
Not at all. I think the ERG should have voted for the deal, but they were elected as hard brexiteers, so it wasn’t a surprise they weren’t satisfied with it. The Labour and TIG MPs were elected as Remainers who had accepted the result, but used the ERGs idealism as a shield while working to prevent us leaving at allwilliamglenn said:
And you seem to be struggling with cognitive dissonance because many of them are ostensibly committed Brexiteers.isam said:
I don’t want no deal particularly, I just want the people who are trying to stop Brexit to be punished for their lies and cowardiceTOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*0 -
I never said it was only Labour that were to blame. Grieve, TIG toowilliamglenn said:
The Conservatives and DUP have a majority so what Labour do is irrelevant if they support the government.isam said:
So it never really was the ERGs fault. I thought as muchwilliamglenn said:
That's only a handful of potential rebels. Labour would still have whipped against it.isam said:
So why do we hear that they would have voted for it had the ERG done so? That has been the excuse given for themwilliamglenn said:
Labour MPs were elected on a manifesto commitment to oppose the Tories' Brexit approach and retain the benefits of the SM/CU, so they had every justification to vote against it.isam said:
Not at all. I think the ERG should have voted for the deal, but they were elected as hard brexiteers, so it wasn’t a surprise they weren’t satisfied with it. The Labour and TIG MPs were elected as Remainers who had accepted the result, but used the ERGs idealism as a shield while working to prevent us leaving at allwilliamglenn said:
And you seem to be struggling with cognitive dissonance because many of them are ostensibly committed Brexiteers.isam said:
I don’t want no deal particularly, I just want the people who are trying to stop Brexit to be punished for their lies and cowardiceTOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*0 -
Time to accept that your Leave vote has done its job and start campaigning to Remain?kle4 said:
Frustratingly, I don't know that the EU would change into something Britain was more able to tolerate unless we left (or sought to leave at any rate).IanB2 said:
You’re not the first PB’er to proffer that thought.Byronic said:
A USE is not going to happen now, with strong eurosceptics in government in Italy, Hungary, Poland, and, for different reasons, across the Hanseatic League.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake news.TOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*
I don't want to punish leave voters.
I want to punish and humiliate leave voters. I want them to see their leave vote is ultimately responsible for the UK joining a USE.
A true victory is to make your enemy see they were wrong to oppose you in the first place. To force them to acknowledge your greatness.
Britain might have left EU at the very moment it begins changing into something we could tolerate.0 -
Didn't our PM-in-waiting Boris say the very same thing?TheScreamingEagles said:
Every time an ERGer said Mrs May's deal was worse than remaining they gave cover for others to oppose the deal.TOPPING said:
It's my view. Take away the cover of the ERG opposing the deal ("if she can't even convince her own party...") and it makes it very difficult or at least very much more difficult for Lab to oppose. Albeit I accept that is their job.isam said:
So why do we hear that they would have voted for it had the ERG done so? That has been the excuse given for themwilliamglenn said:
Labour MPs were elected on a manifesto commitment to oppose the Tories' Brexit approach and retain the benefits of the SM/CU, so they had every justification to vote against it.isam said:
Not at all. I think the ERG should have voted for the deal, but they were elected as hard brexiteers, so it wasn’t a surprise they weren’t satisfied with it. The Labour and TIG MPs were elected as Remainers who had accepted the result, but used the ERGs idealism as a shield while working to prevent us leaving at allwilliamglenn said:
And you seem to be struggling with cognitive dissonance because many of them are ostensibly committed Brexiteers.isam said:
I don’t want no deal particularly, I just want the people who are trying to stop Brexit to be punished for their lies and cowardiceTOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*0 -
Watching episode 3 of the Thatcher documentary which shows a brief clip of the 1984 Tory conference. On the stage behind Thatcher both the union flag and EU flags are displayed, side by side. Just imagine that now.0
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Really it’s the ERG, not only on the numbers but for having poisoned the water for their own governments deal before the ink was dry.isam said:
I never said it was only Labour that were to blame. Grieve, TIG toowilliamglenn said:
The Conservatives and DUP have a majority so what Labour do is irrelevant if they support the government.isam said:
So it never really was the ERGs fault. I thought as muchwilliamglenn said:
That's only a handful of potential rebels. Labour would still have whipped against it.isam said:
So why do we hear that they would have voted for it had the ERG done so? That has been the excuse given for themwilliamglenn said:
Labour MPs were elected on a manifesto commitment to oppose the Tories' Brexit approach and retain the benefits of the SM/CU, so they had every justification to vote against it.isam said:
Not at all. I think the ERG should have voted for the deal, but they were elected as hard brexiteers, so it wasn’t a surprise they weren’t satisfied with it. The Labour and TIG MPs were elected as Remainers who had accepted the result, but used the ERGs idealism as a shield while working to prevent us leaving at allwilliamglenn said:
And you seem to be struggling with cognitive dissonance because many of them are ostensibly committed Brexiteers.isam said:
I don’t want no deal particularly, I just want the people who are trying to stop Brexit to be punished for their lies and cowardiceTOPPING said:
You're falling into the same trap as rich remainers who want to see no deal to punish leave voters.isam said:It would be great if we left on No Deal after the ERG had voted for a deal that the Remain and Revokers had rejected. As it always should have been.
*cough* TSE *cough*0
This discussion has been closed.