politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So which ones will survive the first vote?
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Anyone know why Michelle Obama was last matched at 50, and has (on tiny stakes) shortened from 150 in the last few days...?
(This is for Dem nomination.)0 -
I indicated earlier I expected Rabb to stay in. He should get a few transfers from Leadsom and McVey voters and possibly supportive surplus from Boris to take him over the next threshold. After the next stage he's gone.rottenborough said:
Shame. Can't stand the bloke.JackW said:BBC - Rabb confirms he's staying in the race.
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What's depressing is how easily an issue like that can become subject to tribal politics. If it were positioned as a way to spite the left for their consumption habits you'd get a different response.IanB2 said:
I suspect its mostly the same lot!logical_song said:
Just looked at the Conservative Home site. Most of the comments re: carbon neutral by 2050 are incredibly depressing. These dinosaurs deserve to be extinct but shouldn't take the rest of us plus their children and grandchildren with them.IanB2 said:
For sure, but then any sample of Tory members would show the same, representative or not. Nevertheless ConHome has been way more out there in terms of no deal since the beginning, contrary to proper polls of Tory voters and members. Only HY thinks that the ConHome surveys are accurate.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Trust me, it's not far wrong!IanB2 said:
No. Users of the site volunteer to take the survey, and there is now a basic check to make sure they are members. But it is self-selected, and all the evidence is that ConHome readers aren't a representative sample. All the more remarkable that Rory came second.Stocky said:With regard to the ConservativeHome monthly surveys - is this sample representative of the whole membership?
I recall Mike Smithson saying a while ago that these syrveys cannot entirely be relied upon as a true guide?
Boris would start with a hefty lead, if the vote were tomorrow.
Trouble is they will likely be replaced by Farage's lot who are no better.0 -
History will look kindly on May in one respect. She obviously has kept Boris out of No.10 for a couple of years.0
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Maybe. She mentioned that, while leaning Javid, there were 3 definite nots. Rory, Raab and Boris!IanB2 said:
That Standard cartoon that everyone not voting for Boris is against Boris may actually be close to the moneydixiedean said:Pauline Latham, erstwhile McVey backer, says she is leaning towards Javid. Shows transfers are not always easy to assume.
Which is not the conventional view of how Esther's group might break.0 -
He flopped massively as Brexit Secretary. Why is he a serious contender?rottenborough said:
Shame. Can't stand the bloke.JackW said:BBC - Rabb confirms he's staying in the race.
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A number of posters may well have heard Max Hastings assessment of Boris on Any Questions. Basically he said he was a brilliant editor of the Spectator but as a politician '...he thinks he's Churchill but in fact he's Steve Coogan.'rottenborough said:
Not even journalism really. Comment or even polemic. His stunts at actual journalism as in, you know, listening to people and writing down what they say accurately as quotes and all that, got into one or two difficulties I believe.SouthamObserver said:
Johnson is a very one dimensional writer. His great talent is to write the same piece over and over again, and get paid well for doing so. That is undeniably a very good skill for a journalist to have. I am not sure it makes him PM material.FrancisUrquhart said:
There is the famous story of how he writes his £250k a year column, which was revealed when the Daily Telegraph editor asked why he kept emailing them in from different email addresses every week (and please stop doing it).JosiasJessop said:
That's a good point.
Despite that, he still comes across to me as being lazy. Johnson has a natural and wonderful ability to string sentences together, and has able researchers. That makes writing a book easier - especially if writing is something you love.
But his time as London Mayor or as FS. He was neither particularly competent or energetic. Or even on top of his brief.
Apparently, he turns up somebodies house for Sunday lunch, and while dinner is being prepped he bangs out his column on their computer in an hour or so.
He is clearly a talented writer, but that doesn't mean he isn't also ill prepared / lazy.
I suspect Hastings was thinking Alan Partridge, but you get the drift anyway. Hastings is no socialist, and not afraid to call it how it is. And he would know Boris better than most.0 -
No earthly idea myself.RobD said:
He flopped massively as Brexit Secretary. Why is he a serious contender?rottenborough said:
Shame. Can't stand the bloke.JackW said:BBC - Rabb confirms he's staying in the race.
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Yes. Him and McDonnell. Lifelong socialist outsiders. Now, unexpectedly, with a chance to be PM and Chancellor. Pushing 70, the both of them, and surely aware that this is their one and only shot. Will do what it takes. Will do what maximizes their chance of winning. Might not be enough, but they will not be leaving anything on the bench and that includes the referendum commitment. It will be starting.Benpointer said:I think you are right - Labour would offer a Referendum in a pre-Brexit GE. Corbyn is no lover of the EU but the threat of a LD/Green mop-up of the Remainer vote is too much for him to risk. I think he cares about having the power to implement his domestic policies, more than he cares about Brexit.
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In my view Cameron and May were the two worst post-war PMs this country has had. But I think they're going to look like beacons of competence in comparison to what's around the corner.rottenborough said:History will look kindly on May in one respect. She obviously has kept Boris out of No.10 for a couple of years.
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New thread0
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In a wild moment I have topped up further on Rory.
As everything in politics has become so unpredictable and weird, why not him coming out of nowhere and emerging as the Stop Boris candidate who goes to the membership, just as Boris implodes?0 -
O/T but another "interesting" decision from the Supreme Court: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48625914?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business&link_location=live-reporting-story
A woman who prioritised buying food for her children over her rent was not "intentionally homeless". It was "reasonable" for her to do so.
To me this is the sort of decision that Lord Sumption has been having a go at in his Reith lectures. This isn't law, its politics. And our judges are not best placed to make political decisions.0 -
Good day for us backers of the Bluekip project!
Someone on Twitter asked Tories, what post-Brexit policies would you prioritise? And my priorities in no particular order are:
- Leave the ECHR
- Reintroduction of grammar schools
- Restoration of the death penalty
- Abolish the Foreign Aid budget
- Restore the Lords to pre-1999 state
I always think that the most popular and transformative policies of those that a Tory government could introduce would be grammars and the death penalty.
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I agree that is the most likely outcome. A minority Labour government supported by LDs and SNP with a mandate to ask the public again on Brexit and cancel it.dixiedean said:That almost certainly leads to yet another hung Parliament. At least 70, probably nearer 80, non Labour or Tories, and that is without the LDs.
Funnily enough, although I think Labour would probably win most seats as per above I would give the Tories under Johnson more chance of winning an outright majority. Cannot see Corbyn doing that. Johnson, at a pinch, I can.
However, what I think is most likely is that Johnson does NOT go for an election. Instead he extends and tries to get the WA through in 2020 - cosmetically amended and re-branded to look like a 'win'.
And if he manages it, for all that I think he is unfit to be PM, I will have to take my hat off to him. It will be a substantial political achievement.0 -
Why, David?DavidL said:O/T but another "interesting" decision from the Supreme Court: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48625914?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business&link_location=live-reporting-story
A woman who prioritised buying food for her children over her rent was not "intentionally homeless". It was "reasonable" for her to do so.
To me this is the sort of decision that Lord Sumption has been having a go at in his Reith lectures. This isn't law, its politics. And our judges are not best placed to make political decisions.
The Council wanted to treat her as "Intentionally Homeless". She disagreed. The Court found in her favour.
Sounds like a matter for the Courts to me.0 -
Quite. If the law expects a mother to let her children starve then, to paraphrase our next Prime Minister, Fuck the law. Sounds like a good decision to me.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Why, David?DavidL said:O/T but another "interesting" decision from the Supreme Court: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48625914?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business&link_location=live-reporting-story
A woman who prioritised buying food for her children over her rent was not "intentionally homeless". It was "reasonable" for her to do so.
To me this is the sort of decision that Lord Sumption has been having a go at in his Reith lectures. This isn't law, its politics. And our judges are not best placed to make political decisions.
The Council wanted to treat her as "Intentionally Homeless". She disagreed. The Court found in her favour.
Sounds like a matter for the Courts to me.0 -
Kamala Harris 4th in her her home state 🤣Nigelb said:Warren moving up in California, too:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/448330-warren-rises-to-second-in-california-poll0 -
And perhaps his view was that resources are best deployed on investigating, prosecuting and jailing perpetrators who are still alive. Once those cases are concluded then the police - who no longer have limitless resources - can focus on the dead ones who have no opportunity to defend themselves if innocent or not.GIN1138 said:
What was the context of that comment?nico67 said:Bozo .
Investigating historical child abuse is a waste of money . Just another of the comments he has made .
If it was in relation to the supposed Westminster peado ring then history has shown him to be right given the accuser is currently on trial for being a fantasist who made it all up...
We shouldn’t have policing on the basis of what the tabloid media thinks makes the best headlines and sells the most papers.0 -
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Not going by the majority of them on here.Peter_the_Punter said:
It would be nice to think so. Are you sure, Sean?Sean_F said:
The members are more level-headed than the MP's are.ThomasNashe said:
This is pretty devastating:AndyJS said:"Clarke: Johnson not a shoo-in"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-48579887
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We're all in deep shit … What I don't understand is what happened to the notion that while the members were lunatics the MPs could be relied on to take a sane view of the candidates? Rory is manifestly the best candidate, and the only one who actually has a chance of delivering Brexit - and yet he managed only 19 votes.0 -
Yes and thick as mince, did not even know Dover port was importantRobD said:
He flopped massively as Brexit Secretary. Why is he a serious contender?rottenborough said:
Shame. Can't stand the bloke.JackW said:BBC - Rabb confirms he's staying in the race.
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Sucker!kinabalu said:
Yes. Him and McDonnell. Lifelong socialist outsiders. Now, unexpectedly, with a chance to be PM and Chancellor. Pushing 70, the both of them, and surely aware that this is their one and only shot. Will do what it takes. Will do what maximizes their chance of winning. Might not be enough, but they will not be leaving anything on the bench and that includes the referendum commitment. It will be starting.Benpointer said:I think you are right - Labour would offer a Referendum in a pre-Brexit GE. Corbyn is no lover of the EU but the threat of a LD/Green mop-up of the Remainer vote is too much for him to risk. I think he cares about having the power to implement his domestic policies, more than he cares about Brexit.
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Just found out that Greyling is in Bozo's leadership election team, what could possibly go wrong?
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