politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It was exactly two years ago that Brexit, if it happens, inexo

Byronic said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

Sadly, Big_G, I agree. I wish it were not so and someone like Rory could take over your party and return it to rational, steady conservative governing.

Strange times we live in.

I affirm as a member Boris will not receive my vote but I instinctively feel Boris is near unstoppable now.

As for post Boris I have great hopes for Penny Mordaunt but now is too soon

Agreed. She'd be an excellent post Boris PM, but this is not her moment.

It might not be anyone's moment, of course. Or this could be Sturgeon's moment, Putin's moment. the Lord High Demon of the Multiverse's moment.

But it is very definitely A Moment.

Not sure there will be a Tory Party for anyone to have any moments in by the time this is all over.

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn.

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes off both.

... and Ruth Davidson.

No. Scotlands first minister elect !!!!!!!

Er... are you on a Class A drug?

No - never ever taken drugs and virtually TT but being married to a Scot with lots of Scottish relatives we want to keep the Union. Ruth is the champion of Unionism

If Nicola was pro Union she would get our support as indeed many years ago when we lived in Scotland we did vote SNP on occassions

At least we can now guess what was so naughty about Theresa's romp through the wheat field;

Like the rest of them she was as high as a kite

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

That implies Johnson is in pole position simply because he is seen as the candidate to save the Conservative Party as opposed to the candidate who can save the country. Desperate days!

StuartDickson said:

rottenborough said:

Byronic said:

GIN1138 said:

Think Gove's done for.

So where do he and his supporters go?

Half to Boris, half to A N Other? Rough guess.

It is very difficult now to see a route to the final two which doesn't include Boris J. In which case he wins.

Perhaps it is karmic justice for all, that the most prominent Brexiteer has to deliver Brexit.

Feck knows how he does it. But maybe the healing begins here.

I would die laughing if it wasn't so serious. But Boris trying to deliver the f**ked up cake crap that he has been blathering on about for last three years will be box office.

If you thought watching May was excruciating, Boris is going to be like fingernails on a blackboard.

It will be a spectacle to sit back and watch with absolutely no way of scripting the end product

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

That implies Johnson is in pole position simply because he is seen as the candidate to save the Conservative Party as opposed to the candidate who can save the country. Desperate days!

That is precisely what is going on. Some MPs have apparently even admitted, priviately, the saving the party issue is their only reason for backing him. Of course, we all expect politicians to equate what is good for their party obviously being what is good for the country, but given the problems in the party delivering what Johnson and co are promising, and thus they may not genuinely think they can do it, it truly is about party management not what can be done for the country.

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

Boris has to face someone. Yet everyone else is in double figures (expect Hunt on 9.8). Could be some trading chances here?

I mean if Gove crashes out I cannot believe he doesn't have something in the locker about his old journo chum Boris.

I posed the question earlier, but what could harm Boris at this point, to the point of actually preventing a victory? People know about his affairs, about being sacked for lying, about bumbling, about saying offensive things, that he has flip flopped on major issues including Brexit, that is stated to be lazy and incompetent. And yet no dealers and softer leavers alike are lining up to back him and the members still rate him above the other candidates.

What scandal would affect that?

His gaffs are already priced in .

Hard to see anything stopping him , unless someone has a tape of him going into a racist tirade . Labour want Bozo .

They have a host of material ready to go. And of course he will cost them a lot of votes in seats with a high proportion of ethnic voters . The Muslim vote especially is crucial in many seats.

Philip_Thompson said:

kle4 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

nico67 said:

viewcode said:

IanB2 said:

viewcode said:

kle4 said:

Boas possible.

I agree with you. Somebody else made the same point the other day, which I also agreed with. It may have been you, in which case I agree with you twice. There is an awful lot of self-delusion here.

The combination of Boris and no deal would be enough to ensure his government falls before he has climbed into the saddle.

Rule 1: remainer Tories have no guts. They'll fold faster than paper deckchairs.

If you’re going to be deselected anyway what do you have to lose .

They lose their job. Immediately.

If there's no early election they keep their jobs for 3 more years.
If they delay pulling the plug on Boris they keep it for a few more months.
If they do it immediately it is game over immediately.

In which case there is a high chance they will lose their job pretty soon even if they delay pulling the plug, in which case is it really better for them long term to trash their own brand and ruin their reputation by backing Boris despite him pursuing something they claim is so important to them and the nation, rather than lose their job immediately but 'save' the country from that outcome, even at the price of, say, a Corbyn premiership?

They don't need to trash their own brand since their bottom line has been stated all along that no deal is unacceptable, not that Boris is unacceptable. Boris's stated position is that he wants a deal. Same as May's line was in fact

If Boris goes to the Commons and says he's going to the EU to seek a new deal, then Corbyn calls a VONC immediately then those who have quit their parties can abstain while reserving the right to vote against Boris if he switches to No Deal.

I was envisaging them switching to backing a VONC once Boris backs no deal officially. The dispute here may be how immediate we think that will be, since I don't think it will take much time after July 22nd for it to become apparent that is the path that will be taken. Indeed, it might well be apparent before then if he is forced to update his position as the EY continues to say they won't give a new deal. Grieve loves the EU, if they remain absolutely unequivocal they will not reopen things in the run up to Boris becoming PM, then surely he would believe them even if others do not?

StuartDickson said:

Ruth really isn’t a champion of Unionism. She isn’t a champion of anything. She is excellent at focussing on what she dislikes, but wibble-wobbles on what she likes (when she, very rarely, expresses a policy).

If she really championed Unionism she would try to persuade waverers/floating voters. She never does. She only ever addresses her core vote. That is not the path to the office of FM.

My first impression of Ruth Davidson was that she was a stand-up comedian who wandered into politics by mistake. The Rhona Cameron of the Tory party.

Byronic said:

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

That implies Johnson is in pole position simply because he is seen as the candidate to save the Conservative Party as opposed to the candidate who can save the country. Desperate days!

That is precisely what is going on. Some MPs have apparently even admitted, priviately, the saving the party issue is their only reason for backing him. Of course, we all expect politicians to equate what is good for their party obviously being what is good for the country, but given the problems in the party delivering what Johnson and co are promising, and thus they may not genuinely think they can do it, it truly is about party management not what can be done for the country.

Saving the Tory party = saving the country is not an entirely ludicrous position, when the Opposition is led by Jeremy Corbyn, Seamus Milne and John McDonnell, and other assorted Stalinists, anti-Semites, Marxists, Islamists, traitors, racists, IRA-lovers, and Jew-baiters.

Except saving the Tory party can mean many things. It could mean merely staving off a total collapse in the face of the LDs and BXP, while still meaning they lose the election, if not to Labour outright then to enable Labour to win most seats and put together a majority.

So even on their own terms saving the party may not save the country. Boris may be able to limit the damage in that regard, and HYUFD is awfully excited by polls as ever, but it would be a risky gamble following what would need to be his failure to get a deal, as his stated preference, and possibly having some of his own MPs vote against him in a VONC, to assume the numbers suggesting he would retain most seats are guaranteed.

dixiedean said:

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

That implies Johnson is in pole position simply because he is seen as the candidate to save the Conservative Party as opposed to the candidate who can save the country. Desperate days!

That is precisely what is going on. Some MPs have apparently even admitted, priviately, the saving the party issue is their only reason for backing him. Of course, we all expect politicians to equate what is good for their party obviously being what is good for the country, but given the problems in the party delivering what Johnson and co are promising, and thus they may not genuinely think they can do it, it truly is about party management not what can be done for the country.

Fans self. That the Tory Party. THE TORY PARTY. Could behave in such a way!

All jokes aside, parties are usually at least able to pretend better that that is not the primary consideration.

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

No - never ever taken drugs and virtually TT but being married to a Scot with lots of Scottish relatives we want to keep the Union. Ruth is the champion of Unionism

If Nicola was pro Union she would get our support as indeed many years ago when we lived in Scotland we did vote SNP on occasions

Imagine if England, Scotland, Wales and a united Ireland were members of the European Union in their own right. The positive kind of unionism you represent could instead be channelled into support for European integration.

It certainly would not in the case of England and Wales both of which voted Leave

kle4 said:

dixiedean said:

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

That implies Johnson is in pole position simply because he is seen as the candidate to save the Conservative Party as opposed to the candidate who can save the country. Desperate days!

That is precisely what is going on. Some MPs have apparently even admitted, priviately, the saving the party issue is their only reason for backing him. Of course, we all expect politicians to equate what is good for their party obviously being what is good for the country, but given the problems in the party delivering what Johnson and co are promising, and thus they may not genuinely think they can do it, it truly is about party management not what can be done for the country.

Fans self. That the Tory Party. THE TORY PARTY. Could behave in such a way!

All jokes aside, parties are usually at least able to pretend better that that is not the primary consideration.

Emily Thornberry is Labour till she dies remember !

kle4 said:

Byronic said:

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

That implies Johnson is in pole position simply because he is seen as the candidate to save the Conservative Party as opposed to the candidate who can save the country. Desperate days!

That is precisely what is going on. Some MPs have apparently even admitted, priviately, the saving the party issue is their only reason for backing him. Of course, we all expect politicians to equate what is good for their party obviously being what is good for the country, but given the problems in the party delivering what Johnson and co are promising, and thus they may not genuinely think they can do it, it truly is about party management not what can be done for the country.

Saving the Tory party = saving the country is not an entirely ludicrous position, when the Opposition is led by Jeremy Corbyn, Seamus Milne and John McDonnell, and other assorted Stalinists, anti-Semites, Marxists, Islamists, traitors, racists, IRA-lovers, and Jew-baiters.

Except saving the Tory party can mean many things. It could mean merely staving off a total collapse in the face of the LDs and BXP, while still meaning they lose the election, if not to Labour outright then to enable Labour to win most seats and put together a majority.

So even on their own terms saving the party may not save the country. Boris may be able to limit the damage in that regard, and HYUFD is awfully excited by polls as ever, but it would be a risky gamble following what would need to be his failure to get a deal, as his stated preference, and possibly having some of his own MPs vote against him in a VONC, to assume the numbers suggesting he would retain most seats are guaranteed.

Saving the Party means ensuring it is the largest opposition Party after the GE right now.

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn.

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes off both.

... and Ruth Davidson.

No. Scotlands first minister elect !!!!!!!

Er... are you on a Class A drug?

No - never ever taken drugs and virtually TT but being married to a Scot with lots of Scottish relatives we want to keep the Union. Ruth is the champion of Unionism

If Nicola was pro Union she would get our support as indeed many years ago when we lived in Scotland we did vote SNP on occassions

Ruth really isn’t a champion of Unionism. She isn’t a champion of anything. She is excellent at focussing on what she dislikes, but wibble-wobbles on what she likes (when she, very rarely, expresses a policy).

If she really championed Unionism she would try to persuade waverers/floating voters. She never does. She only ever addresses her core vote. That is not the path to the office of FM.

You no doubt know I have been long associated with Scotland going back to my school days in Berwick on Tweed when in the 1950s Wendy Wood frequently painted a white line overnight across the centre of the border bridge demarking Scotland and England. Indeed going through my school days I was well versed in the fact Berwick had changed hands 13 times in it's history with Scotland

On moving to Edinburgh and meeting my wife I was very pro the Union as indeed she was but in those days labour ruled throughout and there was no question of independence,. I like Nicola and some of her policies but I cannot support independence so Ruth is the best source to defend it but of course she is not going to be First Minister anytime soon

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

No - never ever taken drugs and virtually TT but being married to a Scot with lots of Scottish relatives we want to keep the Union. Ruth is the champion of Unionism

If Nicola was pro Union she would get our support as indeed many years ago when we lived in Scotland we did vote SNP on occasions

Imagine if England, Scotland, Wales and a united Ireland were members of the European Union in their own right. The positive kind of unionism you represent could instead be channelled into support for European integration.

It certainly would not in the case of England and Wales both of which voted Leave

Not now! We in Wales are now Remainers. Check the polling!

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

No - never ever taken drugs and virtually TT but being married to a Scot with lots of Scottish relatives we want to keep the Union. Ruth is the champion of Unionism

If Nicola was pro Union she would get our support as indeed many years ago when we lived in Scotland we did vote SNP on occasions

Imagine if England, Scotland, Wales and a united Ireland were members of the European Union in their own right. The positive kind of unionism you represent could instead be channelled into support for European integration.

Not as long as I breathe will I support EU integration

Byronic said:

rottenborough said:

Byronic said:

GIN1138 said:

Think Gove's done for.

So where do he and his supporters go?

Half to Boris, half to A N Other? Rough guess.

It is very difficult now to see a route to the final two which doesn't include Boris J. In which case he wins.

Perhaps it is karmic justice for all, that the most prominent Brexiteer has to deliver Brexit.

Feck knows how he does it. But maybe the healing begins here.

I would die laughing if it wasn't so serious. But Boris trying to deliver the f**ked up cake crap that he has been blathering on about for last three years will be box office.

Yup. I reckon he will seriously go for No Deal, and try and get the EU to engineer it, so he can blame them (he knows they hate him). He's worked out that No Deal means a Deal anyway, just with several weeks/months of chaos in between, but at least it saves the country from Corbyn and Farage.

Of course it might cost the Union.... or it might not. Boris is gonna roll the dice.

Boris does not want No Deal, he wants a FTA for GB and will shaft the DUP on the backstop if necessary to get it

kle4 said:

Pulpstar said:

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

That implies Johnson is in pole position simply because he is seen as the candidate to save the Conservative Party as opposed to the candidate who can save the country. Desperate days!

That is precisely what is going on. Some MPs have apparently even admitted, priviately, the saving the party issue is their only reason for backing him. Of course, we all expect politicians to equate what is good for their party obviously being what is good for the country, but given the problems in the party delivering what Johnson and co are promising, and thus they may not genuinely think they can do it, it truly is about party management not what can be done for the country.

When the other potential PM is Corbyn, or God forbid Farage I think saving the Tories should be high up a leader's priority list.
There's no Tony Blair (pre war) LOTO on the other side.

Unless people are resigned to the Tories being out of power forever then a spell in opposition even under Corbyn, who is very crap, would perhaps be a necessary price for a more positive Brexit outcome. They've had 9 years, which is not a bad run, and Brexit is so divisive it feels like it would be a miracle for a governing party to retain power after it is resolved, one way or another. In which case achieving the best outcome for the country is not pandering to the Tory membership, given most Tory MPs for years have indicated they think no deal is worse than a deal, and therefore no deal is worse for the country even though it is better for the party.

I wouldn't worry, "No deal" can't be got through parliament. And Bercow will make sure parliament is heard on the matter.

rottenborough said:

GIN1138 said:

Think Gove's done for.

So where do he and his supporters go?

I would suggest not Boris.

Hunt back in the running? Yippeee!!!

Hunt has tonight also been identified in news reports as having taken cannabis while backpacking in India

Pulpstar said:

kle4 said:

dixiedean said:

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

That implies Johnson is in pole position simply because he is seen as the candidate to save the Conservative Party as opposed to the candidate who can save the country. Desperate days!

That is precisely what is going on. Some MPs have apparently even admitted, priviately, the saving the party issue is their only reason for backing him. Of course, we all expect politicians to equate what is good for their party obviously being what is good for the country, but given the problems in the party delivering what Johnson and co are promising, and thus they may not genuinely think they can do it, it truly is about party management not what can be done for the country.

Fans self. That the Tory Party. THE TORY PARTY. Could behave in such a way!

All jokes aside, parties are usually at least able to pretend better that that is not the primary consideration.

Emily Thornberry is Labour till she dies remember !

Yes, that was an example of the mask slipping. We can be confident many many MPs on both sides are equally ridiculously in their tribalism

Byronic said:

The Tory interest IS the national interest, when the alternative is Jeremy "I love to go on gay-hanging Iranian Press TV" Corbyn, MP. CBE, KCMG, QC, Not.

In that case they should avoid risking an election by pursing no deal. How selfish of the Tories to give Corbyn a chance to win a GE (who knows what might happen in a campaign) just to save their own party. The national interest would surely be to do something supported in parliament so that they can remain in office for the rest of this term.

Pulpstar said:

kle4 said:

Pulpstar said:

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

That implies Johnson is in pole position simply because he is seen as the candidate to save the Conservative Party as opposed to the candidate who can save the country. Desperate days!

That is precisely what is going on. Some MPs have apparently even admitted, priviately, the saving the party issue is their only reason for backing him. Of course, we all expect politicians to equate what is good for their party obviously being what is good for the country, but given the problems in the party delivering what Johnson and co are promising, and thus they may not genuinely think they can do it, it truly is about party management not what can be done for the country.

When the other potential PM is Corbyn, or God forbid Farage I think saving the Tories should be high up a leader's priority list.
There's no Tony Blair (pre war) LOTO on the other side.

Unless people are resigned to the Tories being out of power forever then a spell in opposition even under Corbyn, who is very crap, would perhaps be a necessary price for a more positive Brexit outcome. They've had 9 years, which is not a bad run, and Brexit is so divisive it feels like it would be a miracle for a governing party to retain power after it is resolved, one way or another. In which case achieving the best outcome for the country is not pandering to the Tory membership, given most Tory MPs for years have indicated they think no deal is worse than a deal, and therefore no deal is worse for the country even though it is better for the party.

I wouldn't worry, "No deal" can't be got through parliament. And Bercow will make sure parliament is heard on the matter.

Before someone pops up and says 'no deal' doesn't have to'get through' as it is the legal default we all know what you mean given the second sentence, and while that is technically a relief for those who think no deal will be bad, there are plenty of other outcomes that might also be bad, and sadly what we cannot be sure of is parliament avoiding those!

Byronic said:

Pulpstar said:

kle4 said:

Pulpstar said:

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

That implies Johnson is in pole position simply because he is seen as the candidate to save the Conservative Party as opposed to the candidate who can save the country. Desperate days!

That is precisely what is going on. Some MPs have apparently even admitted, priviately, the saving the party issue is their only reason for backing him. Of course, we all expect politicians to equate what is good for their party obviously being what is good for the country, but given the problems in the party delivering what Johnson and co are promising, and thus they may not genuinely think they can do it, it truly is about party management not what can be done for the country.

When the other potential PM is Corbyn, or God forbid Farage I think saving the Tories should be high up a leader's priority list.
There's no Tony Blair (pre war) LOTO on the other side.

Unless people are resigned to the Tories being out of power forever then a spell in opposition even under Corbyn, who is very crap, would perhaps be a necessary price for a more positive Brexit outcome. They've had 9 years, which is not a bad run, and Brexit is so divisive it feels like it would be a miracle for a governing party to retain power after it is resolved, one way or another. In which case achieving the best outcome for the country is not pandering to the Tory membership, given most Tory MPs for years have indicated they think no deal is worse than a deal, and therefore no deal is worse for the country even though it is better for the party.

I wouldn't worry, "No deal" can't be got through parliament. And Bercow will make sure parliament is heard on the matter.

I am really not sure that is true. And even if it is true, then I think a Prime Minister Johnson would call a General Election on Who Decides Brexit. The Voters Or the Elite and I think he would win, pretty big, maybe very big, against a havering yet eurosceptic Corbyn.

Or, he will redux the Heath election and get the result: 'Not You Mate!'

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

GIN1138 said:

Think Gove's done for.

So where do he and his supporters go?

I would suggest not Boris.

Hunt back in the running? Yippeee!!!

Hunt has tonight also been identified in news reports as having taken cannabis while backpacking in India

At this rate Boris is home and dry because all the other substance-addled candidates have had to drop out due to their spurious back-stories. Thank goodness Boris's cupboards are skeleton -free.

Can a Tory Party Kremlinologist pls explain why Ruth has plumped for Javid?

https://twitter.com/timloughton/status/1137378504570523648

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn.

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes off both.

... and Ruth Davidson.

No. Scotlands first minister elect !!!!!!!

Er... are you on a Class A drug?

No - never ever taken drugs and virtually TT but being married to a Scot with lots of Scottish relatives we want to keep the Union. Ruth is the champion of Unionism

If Nicola was pro Union she would get our support as indeed many years ago when we lived in Scotland we did vote SNP on occassions

Ruth really isn’t a champion of Unionism. She isn’t a champion of anything. She is excellent at focussing on what she dislikes, but wibble-wobbles on what she likes (when she, very rarely, expresses a policy).

If she really championed Unionism she would try to persuade waverers/floating voters. She never does. She only ever addresses her core vote. That is not the path to the office of FM.

You no doubt know I have been long associated with Scotland going back to my school days in Berwick on Tweed when in the 1950s Wendy Wood frequently painted a white line overnight across the centre of the border bridge demarking Scotland and England. Indeed going through my school days I was well versed in the fact Berwick had changed hands 13 times in it's history with Scotland

On moving to Edinburgh and meeting my wife I was very pro the Union as indeed she was but in those days labour ruled throughout and there was no question of independence,. I like Nicola and some of her policies but I cannot support independence so Ruth is the best source to defend it but of course she is not going to be First Minister anytime soon

The legends of Wendy. She got into a fair few scrapes during her time. Nowadays she would probably have been a social media superstar. I have a vague connection with Wendy in a friend of a friend fashion.

They don’t make nationalists like her anymore. She’d probably think of the modern party as a bunch of jessies.

Yes I believe she would. She was a character

https://twitter.com/SayeedaWarsi/status/1137465687671283712

Byronic said:

rottenborough said:

Byronic said:

Pulpstar said:

kle4 said:

Pulpstar said:

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

That implies Johnson is in pole position simply because he is seen as the candidate to save the Conservative Party as opposed to the candidate who can save the country. Desperate days!

That is precisely what is going on. Some MPs have apparently even admitted, priviately, the saving the party issue is their only reason for backing him. Of course, we all expect politicians to equate what is good for their party obviously being what is good for the country, but given the problems in the party delivering what Johnson and co are promising, and thus they may not genuinely think they can do it, it truly is about party management not what can be done for the country.

When the other potential PM is Corbyn, or God forbid Farage I think saving the Tories should be high up a leader's priority list.
There's no Tony Blair (pre war) LOTO on the other side.

Unless people are resigned to the Tories being out of power forever then a spell in opposition even under Corbyn, who is very crap, would perhaps be a necessary price for a more positive Brexit outcome. They've had 9 years, which is not a bad run, and Brexit is so divisive it feels like it would be a miracle for a governing party to retain power after it is resolved, one way or another. In which case achieving the best outcome for the country is not pandering to the Tory membership, given most Tory MPs for years have indicated they think no deal is worse than a deal, and therefore no deal is worse for the country even though it is better for the party.

I wouldn't worry, "No deal" can't be got through parliament. And Bercow will make sure parliament is heard on the matter.

I am really not sure that is true. And even if it is true, then I think a Prime Minister Johnson would call a General Election on Who Decides Brexit. The Voters Or the Elite and I think he would win, pretty big, maybe very big, against a havering yet eurosceptic Corbyn.

Or, he will redux the Heath election and get the result: 'Not You Mate!'

Yes. Heath is the obvious counter-example. And salutary. But Heath was not facing Corbyn.

Has anyone faced someone less capable and suitable to be PM than Corbyn?

Byronic said:

williamglenn said:

Byronic said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

No - never ever taken drugs and virtually TT but being married to a Scot with lots of Scottish relatives we want to keep the Union. Ruth is the champion of Unionism

If Nicola was pro Union she would get our support as indeed many years ago when we lived in Scotland we did vote SNP on occasions

Imagine if England, Scotland, Wales and a united Ireland were members of the European Union in their own right. The positive kind of unionism you represent could instead be channelled into support for European integration.

It certainly would not in the case of England and Wales both of which voted Leave

In the context of the United Kingdom! Where would the break up of the UK leave the "island nation" emotion that drove Brexit?

We would default to "England". Quite a few people would welcome that. I am not one of them. But I can see the logic. We would ideally be an insular, much more influential, truly self governing Switzerland, with better borders, but we might end up like Albania.

Big gamble. But as I say, all ways are gambles, from here.

"England" would be unequivocally a European nation in a way that "Britain" isn't, and we do not have the historical aloofness to play the role of a greater Switzerland.

What a load of twaddle. England has always been different. We are an island. Norway, Switzerland and Iceland do very nicely, offshore of Europe.

In truth, the Scots - if they voted indy - would be mad to jump into the EU, looking at the success of just-outside-the-EU nations, in north west Europe. I suspect they would do better free-riding. But it will be their choice. And for now, it is OUR choice, as Britons.

While you ended that with reference to us as Britons, the 'England has always been different. We are an island' juxtaposition looks, er, interesting.

kle4 said:

Byronic said:

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

That implies Johnson is in pole position simply because he is seen as the candidate to save the Conservative Party as opposed to the candidate who can save the country. Desperate days!

That is precisely what is going on. Some MPs have apparently even admitted, priviately, the saving the party issue is their only reason for backing him. Of course, we all expect politicians to equate what is good for their party obviously being what is good for the country, but given the problems in the party delivering what Johnson and co are promising, and thus they may not genuinely think they can do it, it truly is about party management not what can be done for the country.

Saving the Tory party = saving the country is not an entirely ludicrous position, when the Opposition is led by Jeremy Corbyn, Seamus Milne and John McDonnell, and other assorted Stalinists, anti-Semites, Marxists, Islamists, traitors, racists, IRA-lovers, and Jew-baiters.

Except saving the Tory party can mean many things. It could mean merely staving off a total collapse in the face of the LDs and BXP, while still meaning they lose the election, if not to Labour outright then to enable Labour to win most seats and put together a majority.

So even on their own terms saving the party may not save the country. Boris may be able to limit the damage in that regard, and HYUFD is awfully excited by polls as ever, but it would be a risky gamble following what would need to be his failure to get a deal, as his stated preference, and possibly having some of his own MPs vote against him in a VONC, to assume the numbers suggesting he would retain most seats are guaranteed.

Not just most seats, Boris gets a majority with YouGov and it is then Labour with the crisis not the Tories as against a Boris led Tories Labour can only tie the LDs. If Corbyn Labour falls behind the LDs as even Foot narrowly avoided against the SDP/Alliance in 1983 then it becomes Labour with the existential crisis.


Boris has also never said No Deal is his preference but he will Leave the EU, Deal or No Deal. Boris' preference is a FTA, likely for GB even if that means shafting the DUP over the backstop

StuartDickson said:

Byronic said:

williamglenn said:

Byronic said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

No - never ever taken drugs and virtually TT but being married to a Scot with lots of Scottish relatives we want to keep the Union. Ruth is the champion of Unionism

If Nicola was pro Union she would get our support as indeed many years ago when we lived in Scotland we did vote SNP on occasions

Imagine if England, Scotland, Wales and a united Ireland were members of the European Union in their own right. The positive kind of unionism you represent could instead be channelled into support for European integration.

It certainly would not in the case of England and Wales both of which voted Leave

In the context of the United Kingdom! Where would the break up of the UK leave the "island nation" emotion that drove Brexit?

We would default to "England". Quite a few people would welcome that. I am not one of them. But I can see the logic. We would ideally be an insular, much more influential, truly self governing Switzerland, with better borders, but we might end up like Albania.

Big gamble. But as I say, all ways are gambles, from here.

"England" would be unequivocally a European nation in a way that "Britain" isn't, and we do not have the historical aloofness to play the role of a greater Switzerland.

What a load of twaddle. England has always been different. We are an island. Norway, Switzerland and Iceland do very nicely, offshore of Europe.

In truth, the Scots - if they voted indy - would be mad to jump into the EU, looking at the success of just-outside-the-EU nations, in north west Europe. I suspect they would do better free-riding. But it will be their choice. And for now, it is OUR choice, as Britons.

And “always been different “? Exceptionalism is not a great look.

Isn't the existence of any nation an example of exceptionalism to some degree, stating that these humans are different from those humans, even if they speak the same language, come from the same general area, have the same relgion etc etc?

Good night all.

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

No - never ever taken drugs and virtually TT but being married to a Scot with lots of Scottish relatives we want to keep the Union. Ruth is the champion of Unionism

If Nicola was pro Union she would get our support as indeed many years ago when we lived in Scotland we did vote SNP on occasions

Imagine if England, Scotland, Wales and a united Ireland were members of the European Union in their own right. The positive kind of unionism you represent could instead be channelled into support for European integration.

It certainly would not in the case of England and Wales both of which voted Leave

Not now! We in Wales are now Remainers. Check the polling!

No you are not, Wales voted Brexit Party just last month, exactly like England did

Once again you manipulate polling evidence to suit your agenda. The Brexit Party got a higher percentage of votes compared to any other party. Leave parties did not win a majority.

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Byronic said:

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Byronic said:

Boris has got this. For shurrrrrrre

The two people who need to be fearful of Boris winning are Farage and Corbyn

Just about the only candidate that can reasonable be able to take votes of both

That implies Johnson is in pole position simply because he is seen as the candidate to save the Conservative Party as opposed to the candidate who can save the country. Desperate days!

That is precisely what is going on. Some MPs have apparently even admitted, priviately, the saving the party issue is their only reason for backing him. Of course, we all expect politicians to equate what is good for their party obviously being what is good for the country, but given the problems in the party delivering what Johnson and co are promising, and thus they may not genuinely think they can do it, it truly is about party management not what can be done for the country.

Saving the Tory party = saving the country is not an entirely ludicrous position, when the Opposition is led by Jeremy Corbyn, Seamus Milne and John McDonnell, and other assorted Stalinists, anti-Semites, Marxists, Islamists, traitors, racists, IRA-lovers, and Jew-baiters.

Except saving the Tory party can mean many things. It could mean merely staving off a total collapse in the face of the LDs and BXP, while still meaning they lose the election, if not to Labour outright then to enable Labour to win most seats and put together a majority.

So even on their own terms saving the party may not save the country. Boris may be able to limit the damage in that regard, and HYUFD is awfully excited by polls as ever, but it would be a risky gamble following what would need to be his failure to get a deal, as his stated preference, and possibly having some of his own MPs vote against him in a VONC, to assume the numbers suggesting he would retain most seats are guaranteed.

Not just most seats, Boris gets a majority with YouGov and it is then Labour with the crisis not the Tories as against a Boris led Tories Labour can only tie the LDs

As ever you ignored (rather than simply disagreed with) my opinion (and yes it is only an opinion) that the polling suggesting he would get a majority (or most seats, the point remains the same) would not manifest in a circumstance where he has to call a snap GE because he failed in what he claims is his primary aim, and facing possible defections from his own party as a result of seeking no deal. 'I failed in what I said would be easy, now back my plan B' is not necessarily as strong a pitch as you think it is.

Has there been news???


https://twitter.com/LeftieK13/status/1137490655700226051

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

No - never ever taken drugs and virtually TT but being married to a Scot with lots of Scottish relatives we want to keep the Union. Ruth is the champion of Unionism

If Nicola was pro Union she would get our support as indeed many years ago when we lived in Scotland we did vote SNP on occasions

Imagine if England, Scotland, Wales and a united Ireland were members of the European Union in their own right. The positive kind of unionism you represent could instead be channelled into support for European integration.

It certainly would not in the case of England and Wales both of which voted Leave

In the context of the United Kingdom! Where would the break up of the UK leave the "island nation" emotion that drove Brexit?

It was English nationalism that drove Brexit more than any 'island nation' emotion or a desire to return to the global free trading England of Drake and Raleigh. Scottish independence would just increase the Leave majority in the rest of GB

You are conflating the voters with the Brexit elite. Michael Gove didn't campaign for Brexit because of English nationalism, did he?

Mauve said:

Byronic said:

I am really not sure that is true. And even if it is true, then I think a Prime Minister Johnson would call a General Election on Who Decides Brexit. The Voters Or the Elite and I think he would win, pretty big, maybe very big, against a havering yet eurosceptic Corbyn.

May tried to call an election to show her Brexit plan was superior. Corbyn outmanoeuvred her by talking about everything except Brexit; I suspect he would do so again. It would be a mistake to assume that a GE could be called entirely about one issue - by its very nature a GE would have to cover health, education, the economy, transport and a variety of other matters. I don't see the Conservatives having a coherent policy on any of these any time soon.

Indeed. A snap election would present dangers for Boris. He is not a details man. Questions about Universal Credit, transport links in the North, education, renting policy, the environment, post 16 education, pensions etc, etc, from feisty members of the public.
He is also not noted for his patience or good grace under pressure.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7119835/MP-Chuka-Umunna-stand-Liberal-Democrats-safe-Labour-South-London-constituency.html

Byronic said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SayeedaWarsi/status/1137465687671283712

Fascinating to watch so many knives, and so many backs, and so many stabbings - in one political party.

It is Game of Thrones for ex Young Conservatives.

Byronic said:

kle4 said:

Byronic said:

williamglenn said:

Byronic said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

No - never ever taken drugs and virtually TT but being married to a Scot with lots of Scottish relatives we want to keep the Union. Ruth is the champion of Unionism

If Nicola was pro Union she would get our support as indeed many years ago when we lived in Scotland we did vote SNP on occasions

Imagine integration.

It certainly would not in the case of England and Wales both of which voted Leave

In the context of the United Kingdom! Where would the break up of the UK leave the "island nation" emotion that drove Brexit?

We wo

Big gamble. But as I say, all ways are gambles, from here.

"Enrland.

What a load oce, as Britons.

While you ended that with reference to us as Britons, the 'England has always been different. We are an island' juxtaposition looks, er, interesting.

Dullard. I said, as of now, without a vote for Scots indy, we are Britons. Simply a fact, After such a vote (which is possible, not not probable, let alone certain) we will be "the English".

I was a longtime lurker here. I am sure the IQ level was higher, back in the day. FFS.

If you wish to call people dullards then don't follow a sentence saying England is different with one saying 'we' are an island. That you object to being made fun of for what is at best an awkwardly placed sentence with an easy unintended intepretation is your problem. Either take more care with what you meant or don't get so prissy about it.

That you reached for the insults when I merely said it was an interesting choice of words speaks volumes I should think. Everyone loses their rag occasionally, myself being no exception, but getting all aggressive and pouty because your sentence structuring was silly is not even funny, it's just lame. It was a tease, not an attack for heaven's sake.

And I am sure my IQ, whatever it is, is as low as it ever was. Fortunately I don't mind if I appear silly while writing extemperaneously on an intenet forum.

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

GIN1138 said:

Think Gove's done for.

So where do he and his supporters go?

I would suggest not Boris.

Hunt back in the running? Yippeee!!!

Hunt has tonight also been identified in news reports as having taken cannabis while backpacking in India

At this rate Boris is home and dry because all the other substance-addled candidates have had to drop out due to their spurious back-stories. Thank goodness Boris's cupboards are skeleton -free.

Everyone expects skeletons with Boris though and he has the charisma the others lack to brush them off

So if a politician has indulged in some heinous crime, it won't count if he/she can bat it away with a spot of latin. Cool!