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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It was exactly two years ago that Brexit, if it happens, inexorably changed
Video: The moment the 2017 exit poll was announced
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EDIT: Or not. An omen for Boris?
A Boris led Tory Party would gain Ashfield, Barrow, Battersea, Bishop Auckland, Bolsover, Canterbury, Derby North, Don Valley, Kensington, Lincoln, Plymouth Sutton and Devenport, Stoke on Trent Central and North, Wakefield, Wolverhampton North East and South West from Labour but would lose Cheltenham, Devon North, Hazel Grove, Lewes, Richmond Park, St Albans, St Ives, Wells and Winchester to the LDs.
So a Boris led Tories does disproportionally better in C2 areas than AB areas and indeed a Boris led Tories would only lead the LDs by 1%, 28% to 27% with ABC1s but would lead Labour by 5%, 29% to 24% with C2DEs.
https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=29&LAB=22&LIB=22&Brexit=13&Green=7&ChUK=1&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20&SCOTLAB=15&SCOTLIB=16&SCOTBrexit=5&SCOTGreen=8&SCOTChUK=1&SCOTUKIP=0&SCOTNAT=35&display=AllChanged®orseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
However Labour have the problem that the more Corbyn holds out against EUref2 the greater he risks losing more Remainers to the LDs or Greens
However when we look back in hindsight another group who may regret their decisions in hindsight is the so-called "moderate" Tories who wanted to originally elect and then to keep May to prevent someone like Boris winning. They may have just delayed him doing so and in so doing they have triggered the rise of the Brexit Party and ensured the Tories now need to fight on that flank.
We could now actually end up with a harder Brexit that we would have had Boris won in 2016, or May been ousted in 2017, or at the VONC.
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1137380070404890625?s=20
https://order-order.com/2019/06/08/gauke-no-confidence-notice-sent/
After May has done the hard work and taken the flack and tried to keep the DUP on board I think Boris could just shaft the DUP and keep the backstop for NI (giving a vague promise to replace it with a technical solution) and then scrap the temporary customs union for GB and then go to the country to get a mandate for the Withdrawal Agreement on that basis. Boris is not a diehard No Dealer like Baker or McVey or it seems increasingly Raab
I think that everyone knows his wife didn’t trust him to keep his pants up, but I’m not sure that many people know many of the other, more serious, stories that are already out there.
They are about to get that education. How many members know of his alleged involvement in a contract beating, of one mistress forced to have an abortion and another he tried to gag in court from speaking out about their child?
Also, I think that while most people are okay with students doing silly things, they don’t extend that same ambivalence to the same things done in your forties. He has also denied taking drugs in the past, and I still reckon there’s a big story coming up.
There’s lots of people he’s crossed over the years who don’t want him to become leader of the Conservative party
He’s now using this to dupe the plebs into thinking this is a good tactic against the EU .
Some Leavers will obviously now support this coup . We’ve really hit rock bottom when the country is effectively heading for Banana Republic status .
1. There is no certainty a Land Value Tax would result in higher rents. Seems implausible? Well remember 3G licenses. At the time, a lot of articles were written suggesting that countries where operators paid many billions for 3G licenses would end up with higher phone bills. By contrast, it was suggested that in those countries where licenses were given away, bills would be lower. It didn't happen. There was no correlation. Why? Because what an operator had paid for a license had no impact on supply and demand. And prices are set by supply and demand.
2. The best way to lower prices for young people is to ensure that the market is efficient. Things that discourage people trading down result in low market efficiency, because they result in people living in houses that are too big for them. So, high rates of stamp duty mean that a couple who've children have left home will be unlikely to move to a smaller house, because doing so has high costs. At the very least, have an exemption for people trading down.
3. There are too few council tax bands, especially at the top end. This also discourages trading down. You should be able to save money in terms of council tax by going from a large house to a smaller one, or to an apartment.
4. Don't think that renting is automatically bad and owning good. Think in terms of overall property supply. Many of the proposals from government of all colours have worked to discourage people renting properties out, which has the knock on effect of discouraging construction, as it is a supply of additional properties for sale.
5. Remember the mantra: things that improve the efficiency of the market (i.e. encourage better utilisation) are good.
Kind of the death cult to maximise the chances that the next Conservative leader will not be Prime Minister.
My book is green on Gove and Hunt. I'm not desperate to get in much deeper until we've seen the final field, then the hustings and first round. There might also be something in the Sunday papers depending how cynical you are about Gove's cocaine use 20 years back.
https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1137294819829735424?s=21
I also have no idea why he is so regarded. What has he achieved? What are his qualities. I have seen nothing.
Turns out politicians voting for things they didn't want, promising things they don't mean, and refusing to back any option at all isn't a recipe for wonderfulness. Whoever would've guessed it?
Edited extra bit: and now I regret not backing Leclerc.
Even if Raab comes second in the first round or later, once it gets down to final 3 he will be eliminated then as he isn't transfer-friendly.
If the final three is Boris, Raab, Gove with Hunt eliminated 4th then who will Hunt's MPs back? Similarly if it is Boris, Raab, Hunt with Gove eliminated 4th?
Unless all of Hunt/Gove's backers switch to Boris (unlikely), Raab won't pick up transfers and will be eliminated then.
Voting to Leave with a Deal now seen as being a traitor by these ageing loons.
https://twitter.com/anandMenon1/status/1137386986841550848
Which is why he shouldn't be in the next Cabinet.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0
Johnson 52, Gove 33, Hunt 33, Raab 24, Javid 17, Hancock 13,
Harper 7, McVey 6, Stewart 6, Leadsom 5, Gyimah 4.
Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.
I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.
'BeLeave was set up as a "youth-focused pro-Brexit campaign" by Darren Grimes, at the time a 22-year-old fashion student and part-time shop worker. Grimes worked out of Vote Leave's office and was invited to appear on several TV and radio programmes arguing for Britain to leave the EU. When Vote Leave was close to its £7m spending limit, Vote Leave emailed Grimes with offers of financial help, to which Grimes replied asking that the money be spent on Facebook ads to be placed by AggregateIQ. Vote leave sent £675,000 in this way to AggregateIQ, without the money ever passing into the hands of Grimes or BeLeave. BeLeave had no significant income or expenditure apart from this'
MaxPB said:
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1. You've just created a massive disincentive for older people to sell up and downsize, exacerbating the housing crisis foe younger families.
2. We've just managed to get rid out state ownership of banks, it didn't go well.
3. You've just pushed more people into tax planning, causing a reduction in actual tax take.
4. Who pays for all of the additional pupils who's parents now decide that can't or won't send their kids to private school?
As always with the left, policies that sounds good but will wreck the economy (and in this case the education sector).
Only a moronic cretin would think any of that crap is aspirational and going to help anyone. Commies really are as thick as they make out.
Priti Patel's twitter timeline is full of pro-Boris stuff
Lee Rowley, Mark Spencer and Ben Bradley have been out with Esther Mcvey at blue collar Tory events.
Edited extra bit: decided against it. Ramble up soon.
Corbyn could yet suffer the fate Foot narrowly avoided in 1983 and take Labour to third behind a centrist, pro European liberal third party, at least in voteshare
Running the worst election campaign in modern history is not.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/06/canada-pre-qualifying-2019.html
Includes some observations on the fastest laps so far.
Are you so condescending with Scottish nationalists?
Priti represents a similar area but has a large majority - but which being in Essex could easily go Brexit party.
They need Brexit to happen and soon to have a chance of holding their seats. So Boris will probably be their man n later rounds as he appeals to aspirational C2DE voters once Esther is we assume eliminated. Bradley in particular has a lot of potential to appeal to the new Tory voting base.
Not sure what the proposals of governments of all colours means, the Tory government has made some recent positive changes making it less attractive to rent properties out but are still heavily subsidising landlords. Going back a long time I can't of anything the Brown/Blair governments did to make landlording less attractive.
In contrast all governments this century have boosted housing benefit (doubled since 2000) which are subsidies to landlords, not to mention the impact of QE to boost asset prices without an equivalent increase in wages, the various help to buy schemes, the nationalisation of our banks and associated lending into btl rather than businesses - it is clear that landlords have been hugely subsidised by the government compared to a free market rather than penalised as your post suggests.
June 13 (I believe)
Although Nick Palmer correctly points out German Greens are not all Caroline Lucas clones to get a majority they will need the hard left Linke as well as the SPD so that means a clear shift left in Germany.
I think there's only two days of balloting - the first day removes the no-hopers, then the second will have repeated voting till the final two are reached.
However if you are constantly at risk of rent rises, have no ability to improve your home to your tastes and worst of all are at as little as two months risk of being made homeless with you and your kids facing being thrown out on the street for no fault of your own - it can be pretty s**t! And that also means finding a new place, 6 weeks rent deposit before you get your old deposit back, moving costs, possibly new furniture, time off work to find a new place, new school for your kids, New GP, longer trip to work etc etc.
Yes those poor buy to landlords have it so tough - just sitting at home waiting for that £1200 a month standing order to appear in their bank account after their tenant gets paid for actually doing a useful job for 35 hours a week.
Someone said earlier renting was a choice between two consenting adults. I would suggest having shelter for your family is not a choice but a necessity in a cold damp country like the UK.