Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It was exactly two years ago that Brexit, if it happens, inexo

245678

Comments

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    How long before these whackos in Con membership are demanding that Calais be returned to English hands is part of a proper No Deal Brexit?

    Now you're talking.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    I don't know why they can't hold the first ballot on Tuesday.


    I think there's only two days of balloting - the first day removes the no-hopers, then the second will have repeated voting till the final two are reached.

    That's true, but with nominations closing on Monday I thought they could voting start on Tuesday instead of waiting until Thursday.

    A couple of extra days to prepare doesn't seem too much - the longest wait will be for the member's vote.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    How long before these whackos in Con membership are demanding that Calais be returned to English hands is part of a proper No Deal Brexit?

    Now you're talking.
    Err... No Deal means No Deal! B)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    AndyJS said:

    200 Tory MPs have endorsed a candidate. 113 to go.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

    Johnson 52, Gove 33, Hunt 33, Raab 24, Javid 17, Hancock 13,
    Harper 7, McVey 6, Stewart 6, Leadsom 5, Gyimah 4.

    Unless MPs are lying, Boris looks guaranteed for Top 2. McVey and Raab will be eliminated and have 30 that will presumably transfer to him.
    Some MPs will be lying. If you ever wanted to be seen to back the winner (Boris) but are secretly horrified and don't actually want to vote for him then now would be the time.

    But, and I don't think this is a good thing, there will be peer pressure for Tory MPs to take snapshots of and share their secret ballots.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    AndyJS said:

    200 Tory MPs have endorsed a candidate. 113 to go.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

    Johnson 52, Gove 33, Hunt 33, Raab 24, Javid 17, Hancock 13,
    Harper 7, McVey 6, Stewart 6, Leadsom 5, Gyimah 4.

    Unless MPs are lying, Boris looks guaranteed for Top 2. McVey and Raab will be eliminated and have 30 that will presumably transfer to him.
    Some MPs will be lying. If you ever wanted to be seen to back the winner (Boris) but are secretly horrified and don't actually want to vote for him then now would be the time.

    But, and I don't think this is a good thing, there will be peer pressure for Tory MPs to take snapshots of and share their secret ballots.

    They should use a pen and not a pencil as well...

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    AndyJS said:

    200 Tory MPs have endorsed a candidate. 113 to go.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

    Johnson 52, Gove 33, Hunt 33, Raab 24, Javid 17, Hancock 13,
    Harper 7, McVey 6, Stewart 6, Leadsom 5, Gyimah 4.

    Unless MPs are lying, Boris looks guaranteed for Top 2. McVey and Raab will be eliminated and have 30 that will presumably transfer to him.
    Some MPs will be lying. If you ever wanted to be seen to back the winner (Boris) but are secretly horrified and don't actually want to vote for him then now would be the time.

    But, and I don't think this is a good thing, there will be peer pressure for Tory MPs to take snapshots of and share their secret ballots.
    I thought the 22 had banned that sort of behaviour.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Unfortunately I think you are right. Boris needs to be forced to go cap in hand to the EU, as May has done. Only then will reality begin to intrude into Brexit fairyland.
    All indications are that the EU will not reopen negotiations. Whoever has won the leadership ballot will almost certainly have committed to leaving with no deal in those circumstances.

    Parliament is likely to block no deal so what happens then? If a GE is called what policy does the Conservative then fight on? If they go for no deal they will lose a swathe of MPs and voters to the Lib Dems and others, if they don't they will lose swathes of voters to Farage's outfit who will be screaming betrayal at the tops of their voices.

    I can't see how the Tories get out of this in one piece. I don't feel any sympathy because the whole f**ing mess is of their making
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Far from it, indeed Boris will go for a FTA most people in GB want by removing the temporary customs union for the political declaration and he may yet accept the backstop for NI (with some vague promise about finding a technical solution) in order to get that GB FTA. If Boris wins a majority he then can dispense with the DUP and reluctantly accept the backstop for the time being, avoiding a hard border in the process as most NI voters want
    You're suggesting Boris would quickly call a GE?
    Boris will likely have to before mid October, as assuming the Commons does not pass his Withdrawal Agreement by then and assuming the EU does not remove the backstop from it, he will need a majority to dump the DUP and go for a FTA for GB policy even if temporarily keeping the NI backstop until a technical solution is found and then get the WA passed before the extension runs out.

    Plus even if Boris went for No Deal the current Commons would vote for extension or even revoke over No Deal


  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    On topic May completely screwed up the election and she definitely should have gone in 2017.

    However when we look back in hindsight another group who may regret their decisions in hindsight is the so-called "moderate" Tories who wanted to originally elect and then to keep May to prevent someone like Boris winning. They may have just delayed him doing so and in so doing they have triggered the rise of the Brexit Party and ensured the Tories now need to fight on that flank.

    We could now actually end up with a harder Brexit that we would have had Boris won in 2016, or May been ousted in 2017, or at the VONC.

    These same Conservative MPs who elected Theresa May in 2016, and then banged their desks to support her in 2017 after they'd seen how bad a campaigner she was, and then supported her in the confidence vote, are the same MPs voting in this leadership election.

    Conservative MPs are not blessed with the wisdom of Solomon. It is hardly surprising that Oxford is plummeting down the university league tables.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Far from it, indeed Boris will go for a FTA most people in GB want by removing the temporary customs union for the political declaration and he may yet accept the backstop for NI (with some vague promise about finding a technical solution) in order to get that GB FTA. If Boris wins a majority he then can dispense with the DUP and reluctantly accept the backstop for the time being, avoiding a hard border in the process as most NI voters want
    How does that ever pass Parliament? If they can’t amend the backstop to get the DUP on board then the only way out is going to be a new Parliament - so we get an election in the autumn.
    Exactly, to dispense with the DUP who will never accept the backstop and to get a mandate for a GB FTA Boris will have to call a general election in the autumn and try and get a majority
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Far from it, indeed Boris will go for a FTA most people in GB want by removing the temporary customs union for the political declaration and he may yet accept the backstop for NI (with some vague promise about finding a technical solution) in order to get that GB FTA. If Boris wins a majority he then can dispense with the DUP and reluctantly accept the backstop for the time being, avoiding a hard border in the process as most NI voters want
    You're suggesting Boris would quickly call a GE?
    Boris will likely have to before mid October, as assuming the Commons does not pass his Withdrawal Agreement by then and assuming the EU does not remove the backstop from it, he will need a majority to dump the DUP and go for a FTA for GB policy even if temporarily keeping the NI backstop until a technical solution is found and then get the WA passed before the extension runs out.

    Plus even if Boris went for No Deal the current Commons would vote for extension or even revoke over No Deal


    Have you factored the party conference season into your timetable?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    rcs1000 said:

    Having just caught up with (some of) the earlier threat, and in particular how to ensure affordable housing. A few thoughts:

    1. There is no certainty a Land Value Tax would result in higher rents. Seems implausible? Well remember 3G licenses. At the time, a lot of articles were written suggesting that countries where operators paid many billions for 3G licenses would end up with higher phone bills. By contrast, it was suggested that in those countries where licenses were given away, bills would be lower. It didn't happen. There was no correlation. Why? Because what an operator had paid for a license had no impact on supply and demand. And prices are set by supply and demand.

    2. The best way to lower prices for young people is to ensure that the market is efficient. Things that discourage people trading down result in low market efficiency, because they result in people living in houses that are too big for them. So, high rates of stamp duty mean that a couple who've children have left home will be unlikely to move to a smaller house, because doing so has high costs. At the very least, have an exemption for people trading down.

    3. There are too few council tax bands, especially at the top end. This also discourages trading down. You should be able to save money in terms of council tax by going from a large house to a smaller one, or to an apartment.

    4. Don't think that renting is automatically bad and owning good. Think in terms of overall property supply. Many of the proposals from government of all colours have worked to discourage people renting properties out, which has the knock on effect of discouraging construction, as it is a supply of additional properties for sale.

    5. Remember the mantra: things that improve the efficiency of the market (i.e. encourage better utilisation) are good.

    If renting is seen as the norm, politicians will seek policies that are favourable to renters, as already happens in Germany, where there are average market price rent controls and security of tenancies.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Far from it, indeed Boris will go for a FTA most people in GB want by removing the temporary customs union for the political declaration and he may yet accept the backstop for NI (with some vague promise about finding a technical solution) in order to get that GB FTA. If Boris wins a majority he then can dispense with the DUP and reluctantly accept the backstop for the time being, avoiding a hard border in the process as most NI voters want
    How does that ever pass Parliament? If they can’t amend the backstop to get the DUP on board then the only way out is going to be a new Parliament - so we get an election in the autumn.
    Exactly, to dispense with the DUP who will never accept the backstop and to get a mandate for a GB FTA Boris will have to call a general election in the autumn and try and get a majority
    When you talk about a “GB FTA”, do you mean to throw NI under the bus with an Irish Sea border?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Having just caught up with (some of) the earlier threat, and in particular how to ensure affordable housing. A few thoughts:

    1. There is no certainty a Land Value Tax would result in higher rents. Seems implausible? Well remember 3G licenses. At the time, a lot of articles were written suggesting that countries where operators paid many billions for 3G licenses would end up with higher phone bills. By contrast, it was suggested that in those countries where licenses were given away, bills would be lower. It didn't happen. There was no correlation. Why? Because what an operator had paid for a license had no impact on supply and demand. And prices are set by supply and demand.

    2. The best way to lower prices for young people is to ensure that the market is efficient. Things that discourage people trading down result in low market efficiency, because they result in people living in houses that are too big for them. So, high rates of stamp duty mean that a couple who've children have left home will be unlikely to move to a smaller house, because doing so has high costs. At the very least, have an exemption for people trading down.

    3. There are too few council tax bands, especially at the top end. This also discourages trading down. You should be able to save money in terms of council tax by going from a large house to a smaller one, or to an apartment.

    4. Don't think that renting is automatically bad and owning good. Think in terms of overall property supply. Many of the proposals from government of all colours have worked to discourage people renting properties out, which has the knock on effect of discouraging construction, as it is a supply of additional properties for sale.

    5. Remember the mantra: things that improve the efficiency of the market (i.e. encourage better utilisation) are good.

    If renting is seen as the norm, politicians will seek policies that are favourable to renters, as already happens in Germany, where there are average market price rent controls and security of tenancies.
    Well security of tenancy is about to change and Labour are looking at rent controls (after all renters are going to be a core political target going forward),
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    It's not destroying itself that is the problem, it's what they do to everyone else while doing so. I confess even knowing how intense some are on Brexit I didn't think Raab, and by reasonable extension all those who back him including a sizable portion of members, would propose such blisteringly awful options because they truly believe anything should be done, any price should be paid, to achieve Brexit.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,264
    edited June 2019
    tlg86 said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Greens again lead in another German poll with the AfD now tieing the SPD for third

    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1137380070404890625?s=20

    If the greens get in control, that will be Germany eventually f*cked due to the herds of pink elephants.
    German Greens are not the same as the Greens we have.

    OK - I admit i was a bit of a Saturday afternoon looseness in between deciding whether it was worth wading in on the rental debate.

    I know that of course, and I have followed Jon Worth's journey through the German Greens with interest.

    But reading some of the Grune policies indicate they are every bit as unrealistic as our lot in many ways, if rather less hysterical.

    IMO anyway.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Far from it, indeed Boris will go for a FTA most people in GB want by removing the temporary customs union for the political declaration and he may yet accept the backstop for NI (with some vague promise about finding a technical solution) in order to get that GB FTA. If Boris wins a majority he then can dispense with the DUP and reluctantly accept the backstop for the time being, avoiding a hard border in the process as most NI voters want
    How does that ever pass Parliament? If they can’t amend the backstop to get the DUP on board then the only way out is going to be a new Parliament - so we get an election in the autumn.
    And somehow Boris wins that. Right. (A GE because he failed is not the same as a hypothetical poll saying he has a chance)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Been having some interesting conversations with lots of Labour voting but generally anti Corbyn friends after the Peterborough result .

    All ardent Remainers . When push comes to shove we’ll all be voting Labour unless we need to tactically vote to stop the Tories .

    The best news for Corbyn is the likely lurch to the right of the next Tory PM. This will galvanize Labour supporters and help keep the party together .

    I have no time for Corbyn but will walk over hot coals to see the Tories beaten.


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628
    Hope everyone took the 1.04 I tipped earlier for England to beat Bangladesh in the cricket?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Sounds good to me. We have Scottish nationalists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish nationalists. About time we have English nationalists.
    If hes honest about that it is one thing. But he wants the votes of people who traditionally do care more about the UK.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    Hope everyone took the 1.04 I tipped earlier for England to beat Bangladesh in the cricket?

    Inspired! You've clearly got the game by the bails.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    I knew Michael Gove had some skeletons in his closet but I didn't know about this

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKmf7p304go&t=2s

    Unfortunately the video comes courtesy of well, you know....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    AndyJS said:

    200 Tory MPs have endorsed a candidate. 113 to go.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

    Johnson 52, Gove 33, Hunt 33, Raab 24, Javid 17, Hancock 13,
    Harper 7, McVey 6, Stewart 6, Leadsom 5, Gyimah 4.

    Unless MPs are lying, Boris looks guaranteed for Top 2. McVey and Raab will be eliminated and have 30 that will presumably transfer to him.
    Only some fresh scandal could prevent him and what at this point would do that? I'm drawing a blank.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    Mr. kinabalu, calling the election is entirely defensible.

    Running the worst election campaign in modern history is not.

    Yes - the infallible wisdom of hindsight. I have as much of that as the next man.

    What got her was our old friend hubris. He is brilliant at puncturing grandiose delusions. He's working on a few projects now, in fact, and I can hardly wait.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited June 2019
    nico67 said:

    Been having some interesting conversations with lots of Labour voting but generally anti Corbyn friends after the Peterborough result .

    All ardent Remainers . When push comes to shove we’ll all be voting Labour unless we need to tactically vote to stop the Tories .

    The best news for Corbyn is the likely lurch to the right of the next Tory PM. This will galvanize Labour supporters and help keep the party together .

    I have no time for Corbyn but will walk over hot coals to see the Tories beaten.


    So in fact you very much do have time for Corbyn. What's the point of saying you dont if the reality of the need to stop the tories mean he is something you will put up with? Many Tories are already preparing similar logic for Boris.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    MattW said:

    tlg86 said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Greens again lead in another German poll with the AfD now tieing the SPD for third

    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1137380070404890625?s=20

    If the greens get in control, that will be Germany eventually f*cked due to the herds of pink elephants.
    German Greens are not the same as the Greens we have.

    OK - I admit i was a bit of a Saturday afternoon looseness in between deciding whether it was worth wading in on the rental debate.

    I know that of course, and I have followed Jon Worth's journey through the German Greens with interest.

    But reading some of the Grune policies indicate they are every bit as unrealistic as our lot in many ways, if rather less hysterical.

    IMO anyway.
    For sure it will be a big change just as it will be a big change when Merkel goes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    nico67 said:

    Been having some interesting conversations with lots of Labour voting but generally anti Corbyn friends after the Peterborough result .

    All ardent Remainers . When push comes to shove we’ll all be voting Labour unless we need to tactically vote to stop the Tories .

    The best news for Corbyn is the likely lurch to the right of the next Tory PM. This will galvanize Labour supporters and help keep the party together .

    I have no time for Corbyn but will walk over hot coals to see the Tories beaten.


    Will it? YouGov gives a Boris led Tories a 7% lead over Labour who can only tie the LDs for second place.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136006739864825858?s=20

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    On topic, I don't particularly blame May for Brexit turning into the sort of mess I expected, but I did expect to actually leave the European Union. The loss of the parliamentary majority made a difficult task impossible. But the decision to hold an election in the hope of getting a sizeable majority was a reasonable one, given the need to deal with that inevitable mess.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628

    Sandpit said:

    Hope everyone took the 1.04 I tipped earlier for England to beat Bangladesh in the cricket?

    Inspired! You've clearly got the game by the bails.
    Absolutely, managed to make me the grand total of £20!

    (£20 which I’m becoming worried is going to have to help bail me out of the last three years of laying Boris Johnson as next Con leader!).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Been having some interesting conversations with lots of Labour voting but generally anti Corbyn friends after the Peterborough result .

    All ardent Remainers . When push comes to shove we’ll all be voting Labour unless we need to tactically vote to stop the Tories .

    The best news for Corbyn is the likely lurch to the right of the next Tory PM. This will galvanize Labour supporters and help keep the party together .

    I have no time for Corbyn but will walk over hot coals to see the Tories beaten.


    Will it? YouGov gives a Boris led Tories a 7% lead over Labour who can only tie the LDs for second place

    A 7% lead which may assume he can deliver on his promises. If he cannot why would the lead persist? May led by 7% this year too. Then reality hit.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    kinabalu said:

    Mr. kinabalu, calling the election is entirely defensible.

    Running the worst election campaign in modern history is not.

    Yes - the infallible wisdom of hindsight. I have as much of that as the next man.

    And more hindsight than Conservative MPs who ducked two chances to remove Theresa May after the election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Far from it, indeed Boris will go for a FTA most people in GB want by removing the temporary customs union for the political declaration and he may yet accept the backstop for NI (with some vague promise about finding a technical solution) in order to get that GB FTA. If Boris wins a majority he then can dispense with the DUP and reluctantly accept the backstop for the time being, avoiding a hard border in the process as most NI voters want
    You're suggesting Boris would quickly call a GE?
    Boris will likely have to before mid October, as assuming the Commons does not pass his Withdrawal Agreement by then and assuming the EU does not remove the backstop from it, he will need a majority to dump the DUP and go for a FTA for GB policy even if temporarily keeping the NI backstop until a technical solution is found and then get the WA passed before the extension runs out.

    Plus even if Boris went for No Deal the current Commons would vote for extension or even revoke over No Deal


    Have you factored the party conference season into your timetable?
    An election could be held in early September if needed or early October or the party conferences postponed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Far from it, indeed Boris will go for a FTA most people in GB want by removing the temporary customs union for the political declaration and he may yet accept the backstop for NI (with some vague promise about finding a technical solution) in order to get that GB FTA. If Boris wins a majority he then can dispense with the DUP and reluctantly accept the backstop for the time being, avoiding a hard border in the process as most NI voters want
    How does that ever pass Parliament? If they can’t amend the backstop to get the DUP on board then the only way out is going to be a new Parliament - so we get an election in the autumn.
    And somehow Boris wins that. Right. (A GE because he failed is not the same as a hypothetical poll saying he has a chance)
    Boris wins it comfortably, he gets a mandate for a GB FTA which is what most voters want
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    I knew Michael Gove had some skeletons in his closet but I didn't know about this

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKmf7p304go&t=2s

    Unfortunately the video comes courtesy of well, you know....

    Hitler wasn't German.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Far from it, indeed Boris will go for a FTA most people in GB want by removing the temporary customs union for the political declaration and he may yet accept the backstop for NI (with some vague promise about finding a technical solution) in order to get that GB FTA. If Boris wins a majority he then can dispense with the DUP and reluctantly accept the backstop for the time being, avoiding a hard border in the process as most NI voters want
    How does that ever pass Parliament? If they can’t amend the backstop to get the DUP on board then the only way out is going to be a new Parliament - so we get an election in the autumn.
    Exactly, to dispense with the DUP who will never accept the backstop and to get a mandate for a GB FTA Boris will have to call a general election in the autumn and try and get a majority
    When you talk about a “GB FTA”, do you mean to throw NI under the bus with an Irish Sea border?
    I mean throw the DUP under the bus not NI, most Northern Irish voters back the backstop and do not want an Irish border, as seen in the European elections recently when the non sectarian Alliance took the third seat in Northern Ireland and Sinn Fein beat the DUP for first
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Far from it, indeed Boris will go for a FTA most people in GB want by removing the temporary customs union for the political declaration and he may yet accept the backstop for NI (with some vague promise about finding a technical solution) in order to get that GB FTA. If Boris wins a majority he then can dispense with the DUP and reluctantly accept the backstop for the time being, avoiding a hard border in the process as most NI voters want
    How does that ever pass Parliament? If they can’t amend the backstop to get the DUP on board then the only way out is going to be a new Parliament - so we get an election in the autumn.
    And somehow Boris wins that. Right. (A GE because he failed is not the same as a hypothetical poll saying he has a chance)
    Boris wins it comfortably, he gets a mandate for a GB FTA which is what most voters want
    Hilarious stuff.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    I knew Michael Gove had some skeletons in his closet but I didn't know about this

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKmf7p304go&t=2s

    Unfortunately the video comes courtesy of well, you know....

    There’s a whole thread of it here:

    https://twitter.com/chrismorrisbits/status/1132574932062396416?s=21
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Hope everyone took the 1.04 I tipped earlier for England to beat Bangladesh in the cricket?

    Inspired! You've clearly got the game by the bails.
    Absolutely, managed to make me the grand total of £20!

    (£20 which I’m becoming worried is going to have to help bail me out of the last three years of laying Boris Johnson as next Con leader!).
    I suspect we will shortly be putting the mantra 'always lay the favourite' in a Tory election to sleep once and for all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Been having some interesting conversations with lots of Labour voting but generally anti Corbyn friends after the Peterborough result .

    All ardent Remainers . When push comes to shove we’ll all be voting Labour unless we need to tactically vote to stop the Tories .

    The best news for Corbyn is the likely lurch to the right of the next Tory PM. This will galvanize Labour supporters and help keep the party together .

    I have no time for Corbyn but will walk over hot coals to see the Tories beaten.


    Will it? YouGov gives a Boris led Tories a 7% lead over Labour who can only tie the LDs for second place

    A 7% lead which may assume he can deliver on his promises. If he cannot why would the lead persist? May led by 7% this year too. Then reality hit.
    Boris' promise is for a FTA and the only way he can achieve that for GB is with the backstop for NI, the DUP will never allow that hence he has to call a general election to get a mandate for it.

    Boris is not promising to deliver May's current deal either including the temporary customs union for GB which he wants to remove and to do that and agree the Deal with the EU still he has to keep the backstop solely for NI.

    Boris also has charisma, May did not and Corbyn got a hung parliament last year by getting Remainers behind him, Remainers are currently moving en masse from Labour to the LDs as that YouGov poll shows while Boris as leader would cut back the Brexit Party and take a clear Tory lead again.

    Note too the Brexit Party would still get 13% even with a Boris led Tories, particularly in Labour areas in the North and Midlands and Wales, an effect which helped the Tories win seats in 2015 but was cut back in 2017 so Labour will be hit from both sides

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    How would he have known what a dreadful campaign she would run?

    That, I am sure, is precisely what he would say. Although to be sure we'll have to wait for the memoirs.

    "They Just Would Not Listen - how David Davis was sidelined and the price we all paid for that".
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Toby Young is trending!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Quite pleased with my Tory book. Red on Raab, Davis, Patel, Baker, Hammond, Rudd, Williamson, Cleverly, Mogg + a load of names very unlikely to run now e.g. Kwarteng
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    o.

    .
    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Far from it, indeed Boris will go for a FTA most people in GB want by removing the temporary customs union for the political declaration and he may yet accept the backstop for NI (with some vague promise about finding a technical solution) in order to get that GB FTA. If Boris wins a majority he then can dispense with the DUP and reluctantly accept the backstop for the time being, avoiding a hard border in the process as most NI voters want
    How does that ever pass Parliament? If they can’t amend the backstop to get the DUP on board then the only way out is going to be a new Parliament - so we get an election in the autumn.
    Exactly, to dispense with the DUP who will never accept the backstop and to get a mandate for a GB FTA Boris will have to call a general election in the autumn and try and get a majority
    When you talk about a “GB FTA”, do you mean to throw NI under the bus with an Irish Sea border?
    I mean throw the DUP under the bus not NI, most Northern Irish voters back the backstop and do not want an Irish border, as seen in the European elections recently when the non sectarian Alliance took the third seat in Northern Ireland and Sinn Fein beat the DUP for first
    I’ll take that as a yes then, in which case any PM is going to find an awful lot of the Conservative and Unionist party unwilling to back it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Far from it, indeed Boris will go for a FTA most people in GB want by removing the temporary customs union for the political declaration and he may yet accept the backstop for NI (with some vague promise about finding a technical solution) in order to get that GB FTA. If Boris wins a majority he then can dispense with the DUP and reluctantly accept the backstop for the time being, avoiding a hard border in the process as most NI voters want
    So, his strategy is to make the backstop less acceptable to the DUP?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    I'm surprised the NI Unionist support has held so long. The Irish Sea border has been unthinkable. Why? What about an NI referendum on the matter?

    Let's face it NI is a foreign place to many Brits. It absorbs a considerable public subsidy - as big as net EU contributions. As soon as there is a hung parliament their leaders act like extortionists. I can't believe there is the sort of sympathy on the mainland that there was in the days of Trimble and Hume and the IRA. We now have the DUP and Sinn Fein.

    I sympathise with the moderate unionists but what attempts have been made to integrate into the rest of the UK? Do some of them not realise that they are part of a union with a great liberal tradition? Whose core values have been tolerance, fair play and open markets. The loss of subsidy would surely force everyone there to move on and build an economy - which we continue to not bother incentivising by offering billions of pounds indefinitely.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Far from it, indeed Boris will go for a FTA most people in GB want by removing the temporary customs union for the political declaration and he may yet accept the backstop for NI (with some vague promise about finding a technical solution) in order to get that GB FTA. If Boris wins a majority he then can dispense with the DUP and reluctantly accept the backstop for the time being, avoiding a hard border in the process as most NI voters want
    So, his strategy is to make the backstop less acceptable to the DUP?
    Chortle ... :smiley:
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Justin Edinburgh, ex-Spurs player and current Leyton Orient manager has died aged 49.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Renting is often fine when starting out but renting without security of tenure is generally bad for families, indeed it will result in fewer people choosing to have families.

    Show me the correlation between protections for tenants and higher birthrates, and I will believe you.

    I think people care far more about housing costs and affordablity, than they do about abstract protections.

    I think you also forget just how f*cked up housing markets become when the government interferes too much.

    Landlords seeking to get rid of tenants stop doing repairs. Or they make sure that some guys making music 24/7 move into the empty apartment next door. Or start sending the boys round to encourage you to move.

    And you discourage people from renting out their properties.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    dixiedean said:

    Justin Edinburgh, ex-Spurs player and current Leyton Orient manager has died aged 49.

    Such a shame so soon after re-joining the League :(
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    Jonathan said:

    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.

    Isn't it more the case that a prosecution based on someone claiming they did something but with no other evidence would be bound to fail?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Far from it, indeed Boris will go for a FTA most people in GB want by removing the temporary customs union for the political declaration and he may yet accept the backstop for NI (with some vague promise about finding a technical solution) in order to get that GB FTA. If Boris wins a majority he then can dispense with the DUP and reluctantly accept the backstop for the time being, avoiding a hard border in the process as most NI voters want
    How does that ever pass Parliament? If they can’t amend the backstop to get the DUP on board then the only way out is going to be a new Parliament - so we get an election in the autumn.
    And somehow Boris wins that. Right. (A GE because he failed is not the same as a hypothetical poll saying he has a chance)
    Boris wins it comfortably, he gets a mandate for a GB FTA which is what most voters want
    Boris only wins if Nigel doesn't stand and there is zero chance of him not standing candidates...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Any sightings of HMS Mordaunt ?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    dixiedean said:

    Justin Edinburgh, ex-Spurs player and current Leyton Orient manager has died aged 49.

    Such a shame so soon after re-joining the League :(
    Yes, he was doing a good job reviving Orient's fortunes. Cardiac arrest Monday, died today. 49 is no age. RIP.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/48568007
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    Been having some interesting conversations with lots of Labour voting but generally anti Corbyn friends after the Peterborough result .

    All ardent Remainers . When push comes to shove we’ll all be voting Labour unless we need to tactically vote to stop the Tories .

    The best news for Corbyn is the likely lurch to the right of the next Tory PM. This will galvanize Labour supporters and help keep the party together .

    I have no time for Corbyn but will walk over hot coals to see the Tories beaten.


    So in fact you very much do have time for Corbyn. What's the point of saying you dont if the reality of the need to stop the tories mean he is something you will put up with? Many Tories are already preparing similar logic for Boris.
    No I don’t have time for him . I’m voting inspite of him. I’d much rather be enthusiastic about a party leader .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628
    dixiedean said:

    Justin Edinburgh, ex-Spurs player and current Leyton Orient manager has died aged 49.

    How sad, 49 is no age at all.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Jonathan said:

    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.

    Isn't it more the case that a prosecution based on someone claiming they did something but with no other evidence would be bound to fail?
    That seems a bit unlikely given a 'guilty' plea is usually sufficient to lock someone up.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.

    Isn't it more the case that a prosecution based on someone claiming they did something but with no other evidence would be bound to fail?
    That seems a bit unlikely given a 'guilty' plea is usually sufficient to lock someone up.
    Rather more difficult if the defendant says they did it and then in court pleads not guilty....
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    nico67 said:

    Been having some interesting conversations with lots of Labour voting but generally anti Corbyn friends after the Peterborough result .

    All ardent Remainers . When push comes to shove we’ll all be voting Labour unless we need to tactically vote to stop the Tories .

    The best news for Corbyn is the likely lurch to the right of the next Tory PM. This will galvanize Labour supporters and help keep the party together .

    I have no time for Corbyn but will walk over hot coals to see the Tories beaten.


    So you would vote for the anti semites and a party whose policies would have a worse affect on living standards than a hard bexit.

    Hmmm
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.

    Isn't it more the case that a prosecution based on someone claiming they did something but with no other evidence would be bound to fail?
    That seems a bit unlikely given a 'guilty' plea is usually sufficient to lock someone up.
    Rather more difficult if the defendant says they did it and then in court pleads not guilty....
    What is the statute of limitations for cocaine possession ?

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.

    Isn't it more the case that a prosecution based on someone claiming they did something but with no other evidence would be bound to fail?
    That seems a bit unlikely given a 'guilty' plea is usually sufficient to lock someone up.
    Normally there is evidence of a crime being committed rather than just someone's word that one happened.

    If I claimed to have killed someone but the police could find no evidence anyone had been killed it is unlikely there would be a successful prosecution.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Time for Javid to arrest his rivals !

    The drug habits of middle-class professionals will be profiled as part of a crackdown on the causes of violent crime, the home secretary has announced.

    Sajid Javid will hold a review into who is buying and selling illicit substances, including whether professionals are involved, in order to help the police and other law enforcement agencies to clamp down on the drugs trade.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Been having some interesting conversations with lots of Labour voting but generally anti Corbyn friends after the Peterborough result .

    All ardent Remainers . When push comes to shove we’ll all be voting Labour unless we need to tactically vote to stop the Tories .

    The best news for Corbyn is the likely lurch to the right of the next Tory PM. This will galvanize Labour supporters and help keep the party together .

    I have no time for Corbyn but will walk over hot coals to see the Tories beaten.


    Will it? YouGov gives a Boris led Tories a 7% lead over Labour who can only tie the LDs for second place

    A 7% lead which may assume he can deliver on his promises. If he cannot why would the lead persist? May led by 7% this year too. Then reality hit.
    Boris' promise is for a FTA and the only way he can achieve that for GB is with the backstop for NI, the DUP will never allow that hence he has to call a general election to get a mandate for it.

    Boris is not promising to deliver May's current deal either including the temporary customs union for GB which he wants to remove and to do that and agree the Deal with the EU still he has to keep the backstop solely for NI.

    Boris also has charisma, May did not and Corbyn got a hung parliament last year by getting Remainers behind him, Remainers are currently moving en masse from Labour to the LDs as that YouGov poll shows while Boris as leader would cut back the Brexit Party and take a clear Tory lead again.

    Note too the Brexit Party would still get 13% even with a Boris led Tories, particularly in Labour areas in the North and Midlands and Wales, an effect which helped the Tories win seats in 2015 but was cut back in 2017 so Labour will be hit from both sides

    Sounds good to me. Johnson calls an election based on a mythical renegotiation of May's deal. With the result that Farage campaigns for No Deal, splitting the Tory vote in two (if the Tories are lucky). Result - a Labour government, and a very soft Brexit or no Brexit at all ...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    How many HYUFD are there do they ever sleep, eat or s***?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Richard Leonard, Scottish Labour leader: “Yes, I want to stop Brexit.”

    Channel 4 News, right now

    Whoops!

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.

    Isn't it more the case that a prosecution based on someone claiming they did something but with no other evidence would be bound to fail?
    That seems a bit unlikely given a 'guilty' plea is usually sufficient to lock someone up.
    Rather more difficult if the defendant says they did it and then in court pleads not guilty....
    What is the statute of limitations for cocaine possession ?

    There isn't one. Apparently in the UK there is no statute of limitations for any criminal offence
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.

    Isn't it more the case that a prosecution based on someone claiming they did something but with no other evidence would be bound to fail?
    That seems a bit unlikely given a 'guilty' plea is usually sufficient to lock someone up.
    Rather more difficult if the defendant says they did it and then in court pleads not guilty....
    What is the statute of limitations for cocaine possession ?

    I could be wrong, but I don't think there is one.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.

    Isn't it more the case that a prosecution based on someone claiming they did something but with no other evidence would be bound to fail?
    That seems a bit unlikely given a 'guilty' plea is usually sufficient to lock someone up.
    Rather more difficult if the defendant says they did it and then in court pleads not guilty....
    Jonathan's deeper point (I think) is valid, though - there's a real difference in how the middle classes treat experiments with drugs (amused tolerance, not a hindrance to being PM) and the devastating effect that a drugs charge can have on someone at the bottom of the pile (criminal record, serious employment difficulty).

    It's something that is massively affected by your circle of friends. I know people who have never been even offered drugs, let alone refused, and people who find that incredible, like never having drunk coffee. As a society we are seriously mixed up about the whole area.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    rcs1000 said:

    Renting is often fine when starting out but renting without security of tenure is generally bad for families, indeed it will result in fewer people choosing to have families.

    Show me the correlation between protections for tenants and higher birthrates, and I will believe you.

    I think people care far more about housing costs and affordablity, than they do about abstract protections.

    I think you also forget just how f*cked up housing markets become when the government interferes too much.

    Landlords seeking to get rid of tenants stop doing repairs. Or they make sure that some guys making music 24/7 move into the empty apartment next door. Or start sending the boys round to encourage you to move.

    And you discourage people from renting out their properties.
    https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/birth-rate-declining-among-renters-24166
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.

    Isn't it more the case that a prosecution based on someone claiming they did something but with no other evidence would be bound to fail?
    That seems a bit unlikely given a 'guilty' plea is usually sufficient to lock someone up.
    Normally there is evidence of a crime being committed rather than just someone's word that one happened.

    If I claimed to have killed someone but the police could find no evidence anyone had been killed it is unlikely there would be a successful prosecution.
    If the police believed however that you were a suspect, they might treat it as a confession. Of course, such a statement could later be withdrawn or deemed inadmissible.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    edited June 2019

    I'm surprised the NI Unionist support has held so long. The Irish Sea border has been unthinkable. Why? What about an NI referendum on the matter?

    Let's face it NI is a foreign place to many Brits. It absorbs a considerable public subsidy - as big as net EU contributions. As soon as there is a hung parliament their leaders act like extortionists. I can't believe there is the sort of sympathy on the mainland that there was in the days of Trimble and Hume and the IRA. We now have the DUP and Sinn Fein.

    It’s actually another example of the way May successfully shaped the narrative, even before she became reliant on the DUP. Her early ‘precious union’ rhetoric and insistence that there could be no bespoke Brexit solution for each part of the UK contradicted Brexiteers like Mervyn King who advocated an Irish Sea border right at the beginning, and said it would be one of the positives of Brexit.

    It’s quite likely that May was only thinking of thwarting the SNP and hadn’t fully considered the Northern Irish dimension at the time.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.

    Isn't it more the case that a prosecution based on someone claiming they did something but with no other evidence would be bound to fail?
    That seems a bit unlikely given a 'guilty' plea is usually sufficient to lock someone up.
    Rather more difficult if the defendant says they did it and then in court pleads not guilty....
    Jonathan's deeper point (I think) is valid, though - there's a real difference in how the middle classes treat experiments with drugs (amused tolerance, not a hindrance to being PM) and the devastating effect that a drugs charge can have on someone at the bottom of the pile (criminal record, serious employment difficulty).

    It's something that is massively affected by your circle of friends. I know people who have never been even offered drugs, let alone refused, and people who find that incredible, like never having drunk coffee. As a society we are seriously mixed up about the whole area.
    I am firmly in the camp that believes the whole thing should be decriminalised. That said, whilst it is still against the law politicians should not be openly claiming they flouted it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    rcs1000 said:

    Renting is often fine when starting out but renting without security of tenure is generally bad for families, indeed it will result in fewer people choosing to have families.

    Show me the correlation between protections for tenants and higher birthrates, and I will believe you.

    I think people care far more about housing costs and affordablity, than they do about abstract protections.

    I think you also forget just how f*cked up housing markets become when the government interferes too much.

    Landlords seeking to get rid of tenants stop doing repairs. Or they make sure that some guys making music 24/7 move into the empty apartment next door. Or start sending the boys round to encourage you to move.

    And you discourage people from renting out their properties.
    I would argue I am the one broadly calling for less govt intervention! Get rid of help to buy, stop subsidising housing benefit to the current levels, get rid of tax relief for landlords borrowing, stop QE, stop publicly owned banks prioritising bubble lending on residential property instead of helping start new business.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    nichomar said:

    How many HYUFD are there do they ever sleep, eat or s***?

    That's where bots score over real people :wink:
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Floater said:

    nico67 said:

    Been having some interesting conversations with lots of Labour voting but generally anti Corbyn friends after the Peterborough result .

    All ardent Remainers . When push comes to shove we’ll all be voting Labour unless we need to tactically vote to stop the Tories .

    The best news for Corbyn is the likely lurch to the right of the next Tory PM. This will galvanize Labour supporters and help keep the party together .

    I have no time for Corbyn but will walk over hot coals to see the Tories beaten.


    So you would vote for the anti semites and a party whose policies would have a worse affect on living standards than a hard bexit.

    Hmmm
    As opposed to the UKIP lite Tory party which is being overtaken by a bunch of nutjobs . And no I don’t believe Labour would hit living standards . And certainly I’m happy for the UK not to become Trumps poodle .

    Not sure lecturing Labour voters on the dangers of voting for them stands up to scrutiny when the Tories are busy destroying the UK and trashing its reputation .
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.

    Isn't it more the case that a prosecution based on someone claiming they did something but with no other evidence would be bound to fail?
    That seems a bit unlikely given a 'guilty' plea is usually sufficient to lock someone up.
    Rather more difficult if the defendant says they did it and then in court pleads not guilty....
    What is the statute of limitations for cocaine possession ?

    Not too sure .... but they have to draw the line somewhere ......
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    JackW said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.

    Isn't it more the case that a prosecution based on someone claiming they did something but with no other evidence would be bound to fail?
    That seems a bit unlikely given a 'guilty' plea is usually sufficient to lock someone up.
    Rather more difficult if the defendant says they did it and then in court pleads not guilty....
    What is the statute of limitations for cocaine possession ?

    Not too sure .... but they have to draw the line somewhere ......
    You could be white, but if were you I'd keep the powder dry lest you get a dusty response.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,264
    edited June 2019
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Having just caught up with (some of) the earlier threat, and in particular how to ensure affordable housing. A few thoughts:

    3. There are too few council tax bands, especially at the top end. This also discourages trading down. You should be able to save money in terms of council tax by going from a large house to a smaller one, or to an apartment.

    4. Don't think that renting is automatically bad and owning good. Think in terms of overall property supply. Many of the proposals from government of all colours have worked to discourage people renting properties out, which has the knock on effect of discouraging construction, as it is a supply of additional properties for sale.

    5. Remember the mantra: things that improve the efficiency of the market (i.e. encourage better utilisation) are good.

    If renting is seen as the norm, politicians will seek policies that are favourable to renters, as already happens in Germany, where there are average market price rent controls and security of tenancies.
    I'd say that RCS has it here.

    Politicians have not got a clue what is favourable to renters. The pillock Brokenshire cannot even get it right that the PRS is shrinking quite rapidly.

    Policies that politicians think are favourable to renters are often nothing of the kind, and are in practice just populist or dancing to lobbyist tunes.

    The Tenant Fees Act that came into force last week is a Dog's Breakfast, which will have multiple negative impacts.

    In practice rents will rise, just as they did in Scotland (*), and the implementation is such a mess that they have seriously damaged Deposit Protection, undermined pet tenancies (which has been increasing significantly), tilted the expenses against long-term tenants, and all kind of costs are now going to be averaged across all tenants rather than attributed to those who caused them.

    But this is about politics, not helping people.

    The German regulation regime would have allowed rents to increase far faster here than has happened over the last 2 decades.

    * Just in case, here are the Scottish Govt statistics for PRS rent increases. Since the fee ban in 2012 in Scotland, all numbers have significantly beat CPI inflation, which is just about 10%.

    image

    Ref:https://www.gov.scot/publications/private-sector-rent-statistics-2010-2018/pages/8/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Nigelb said:

    What is the statute of limitations for cocaine possession ?

    Who nose?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    What is the statute of limitations for cocaine possession ?

    Who nose?
    I can't acseptum that answer. I snorted.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    I knew Michael Gove had some skeletons in his closet but I didn't know about this

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKmf7p304go&t=2s

    Unfortunately the video comes courtesy of well, you know....

    Dearie me. All the classic anti-monarchy jests, including that Prince Charles is “a German”. The interview with Königin des Vereinigten Königreichs Großbritannien und Nordirland at Buckingham Palace ought to be lovely and relaxed.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    kinabalu said:

    Toby Young is trending!

    Anything to do with his srlf-confessed use and supply of cocaine?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534



    I am firmly in the camp that believes the whole thing should be decriminalised. That said, whilst it is still against the law politicians should not be openly claiming they flouted it.

    Tend to agree, on both counts.

    What are the other offences that make most people smile tolerantly? Speeding up to about 20%. Getting drunk and disorderly when young. What else? It changes over time, doesn't it? - people used to think drink-driving was funny, now it's anathema to most of us. Tax evasion is borderline - most people wouldn't actually approve, but wouldn't inform the police (whereas they might well report a burglar, even if he stole much less than the tax fraudster).
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.

    Isn't it more the case that a prosecution based on someone claiming they did something but with no other evidence would be bound to fail?
    That seems a bit unlikely given a 'guilty' plea is usually sufficient to lock someone up.
    Rather more difficult if the defendant says they did it and then in court pleads not guilty....
    Jonathan's deeper point (I think) is valid, though - there's a real difference in how the middle classes treat experiments with drugs (amused tolerance, not a hindrance to being PM) and the devastating effect that a drugs charge can have on someone at the bottom of the pile (criminal record, serious employment difficulty).

    It's something that is massively affected by your circle of friends. I know people who have never been even offered drugs, let alone refused, and people who find that incredible, like never having drunk coffee. As a society we are seriously mixed up about the whole area.
    Out of interest what is the social background of the people who have never been offered drugs? I find it hard to believe many of them can have been at university or grown up in a city.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.

    Isn't it more the case that a prosecution based on someone claiming they did something but with no other evidence would be bound to fail?
    That seems a bit unlikely given a 'guilty' plea is usually sufficient to lock someone up.
    Rather more difficult if the defendant says they did it and then in court pleads not guilty....
    Jonathan's deeper point (I think) is valid, though - there's a real difference in how the middle classes treat experiments with drugs (amused tolerance, not a hindrance to being PM) and the devastating effect that a drugs charge can have on someone at the bottom of the pile (criminal record, serious employment difficulty).

    It's something that is massively affected by your circle of friends. I know people who have never been even offered drugs, let alone refused, and people who find that incredible, like never having drunk coffee. As a society we are seriously mixed up about the whole area.
    I've never drunk tea or coffee.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    I'm surprised the NI Unionist support has held so long. The Irish Sea border has been unthinkable. Why? What about an NI referendum on the matter?

    Let's face it NI is a foreign place to many Brits. It absorbs a considerable public subsidy - as big as net EU contributions. As soon as there is a hung parliament their leaders act like extortionists. I can't believe there is the sort of sympathy on the mainland that there was in the days of Trimble and Hume and the IRA. We now have the DUP and Sinn Fein.

    It’s actually another example of the way May successfully shaped the narrative, even before she became reliant on the DUP. Her early ‘precious union’ rhetoric and insistence that there could be no bespoke Brexit solution for each part of the UK contradicted Brexiteers like Mervyn King who advocated an Irish Sea border right at the beginning, and said it would be one of the positives of Brexit.

    It’s quite likely that May was only thinking of thwarting the SNP and hadn’t fully considered the Northern Irish dimension at the time.
    Yes, it is now clear that despite droning on endlessly about the “Irish Border” (it isn’t: it is the British Border in Ireland) and the Backstop, their true panic was over Scotland. Scots sunk Brexit. This patriot has ripples of pride.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    kinabalu said:

    Toby Young is trending!

    Anything to do with his srlf-confessed use and supply of cocaine?
    No, just the latest staging post in his attempt to become the Piers Morgan for the upper classes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    Anything to do with his srlf-confessed use and supply of cocaine?

    Just psyched up to have a look. Appears that he is winding up the LGBT community again. You know Tobes. He's a card.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    MattW said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Having just caught up with (some of) the earlier threat, and in particular how to ensure affordable housing. A few thoughts:

    3. There are too few council tax bands, especially at the top end. This also discourages trading down. You should be able to save money in terms of council tax by going from a large house to a smaller one, or to an apartment.

    4. Don't think that renting is automatically bad and owning good. Think in terms of overall property supply. Many of the proposals from government of all colours have worked to discourage people renting properties out, which has the knock on effect of discouraging construction, as it is a supply of additional properties for sale.

    5. Remember the mantra: things that improve the efficiency of the market (i.e. encourage better utilisation) are good.

    If renting is seen as the norm, politicians will seek policies that are favourable to renters, as already happens in Germany, where there are average market price rent controls and security of tenancies.
    I'd say that RCS has it here.

    Politicians have not got a clue what is favourable to renters. The pillock Brokenshire cannot even get it right that the PRS is shrinking quite rapidly.

    Policies that politicians think are favourable to renters are often nothing of the kind, and are in practice just populist or dancing to lobbyist tunes.

    The Tenant Fees Act that came into force last week is a Dog's Breakfast, which will have multiple negative impacts.

    In practice rents will rise, just as they did in Scotland (*), and the implementation is such a mess that they have seriously damaged Deposit Protection, undermined pet tenancies (which has been increasing significantly), tilted the expenses against long-term tenants, and all kind of costs are now going to be averaged across all tenants rather than attributed to those who caused them.

    But this is about politics, not helping people.

    The German regulation regime would have allowed rents to increase far faster here than has happened over the last 2 decades.

    * Just in case, here are the Scottish Govt statistics for PRS rent increases. Since the fee ban in 2012 in Scotland, all numbers have significantly beat CPI inflation, which is just about 10%.

    image

    Ref:https://www.gov.scot/publications/private-sector-rent-statistics-2010-2018/pages/8/
    Rents in Scotland rose at the same type rate as the rest of GB with the fees, you can see a comparison on figure 3.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/indexofprivatehousingrentalprices/2015-10-29
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    I'm surprised the NI Unionist support has held so long. The Irish Sea border has been unthinkable. Why? What about an NI referendum on the matter?

    Let's face it NI is a foreign place to many Brits. It absorbs a considerable public subsidy - as big as net EU contributions. As soon as there is a hung parliament their leaders act like extortionists. I can't believe there is the sort of sympathy on the mainland that there was in the days of Trimble and Hume and the IRA. We now have the DUP and Sinn Fein.

    It’s actually another example of the way May successfully shaped the narrative, even before she became reliant on the DUP. Her early ‘precious union’ rhetoric and insistence that there could be no bespoke Brexit solution for each part of the UK contradicted Brexiteers like Mervyn King who advocated an Irish Sea border right at the beginning, and said it would be one of the positives of Brexit.

    It’s quite likely that May was only thinking of thwarting the SNP and hadn’t fully considered the Northern Irish dimension at the time.
    Yes, it is now clear that despite droning on endlessly about the “Irish Border” (it isn’t: it is the British Border in Ireland)
    I'm fairly sure it's also the Irish border.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.

    Isn't it more the case that a prosecution based on someone claiming they did something but with no other evidence would be bound to fail?
    That seems a bit unlikely given a 'guilty' plea is usually sufficient to lock someone up.
    Rather more difficult if the defendant says they did it and then in court pleads not guilty....
    Jonathan's deeper point (I think) is valid, though - there's a real difference in how the middle classes treat experiments with drugs (amused tolerance, not a hindrance to being PM) and the devastating effect that a drugs charge can have on someone at the bottom of the pile (criminal record, serious employment difficulty).

    It's something that is massively affected by your circle of friends. I know people who have never been even offered drugs, let alone refused, and people who find that incredible, like never having drunk coffee. As a society we are seriously mixed up about the whole area.
    Out of interest what is the social background of the people who have never been offered drugs? I find it hard to believe many of them can have been at university or grown up in a city.
    You may be surprised to learn that there are plenty of people who neither went to university nor grew up in a city; I'm one.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    @MattW talking utter rubbish. I rented until relatively recently and the tenant fee ban would have been a god send.

    I bet you are a landlord.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    ydoethur said:

    I can't acseptum that answer. I snorted.

    Snow problem - I won't get all sniffy about it.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ydoethur said:

    I'm surprised the NI Unionist support has held so long. The Irish Sea border has been unthinkable. Why? What about an NI referendum on the matter?

    Let's face it NI is a foreign place to many Brits. It absorbs a considerable public subsidy - as big as net EU contributions. As soon as there is a hung parliament their leaders act like extortionists. I can't believe there is the sort of sympathy on the mainland that there was in the days of Trimble and Hume and the IRA. We now have the DUP and Sinn Fein.

    It’s actually another example of the way May successfully shaped the narrative, even before she became reliant on the DUP. Her early ‘precious union’ rhetoric and insistence that there could be no bespoke Brexit solution for each part of the UK contradicted Brexiteers like Mervyn King who advocated an Irish Sea border right at the beginning, and said it would be one of the positives of Brexit.

    It’s quite likely that May was only thinking of thwarting the SNP and hadn’t fully considered the Northern Irish dimension at the time.
    Yes, it is now clear that despite droning on endlessly about the “Irish Border” (it isn’t: it is the British Border in Ireland)
    I'm fairly sure it's also the Irish border.
    The Irish Border is the beach. The line you see on modern maps was unilaterally drawn by Westminster and Whitehall a century ago.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    I can't acseptum that answer. I snorted.

    Snow problem - I won't get all sniffy about it.
    You are a card...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    ydoethur said:

    I'm surprised the NI Unionist support has held so long. The Irish Sea border has been unthinkable. Why? What about an NI referendum on the matter?

    Let's face it NI is a foreign place to many Brits. It absorbs a considerable public subsidy - as big as net EU contributions. As soon as there is a hung parliament their leaders act like extortionists. I can't believe there is the sort of sympathy on the mainland that there was in the days of Trimble and Hume and the IRA. We now have the DUP and Sinn Fein.

    It’s actually another example of the way May successfully shaped the narrative, even before she became reliant on the DUP. Her early ‘precious union’ rhetoric and insistence that there could be no bespoke Brexit solution for each part of the UK contradicted Brexiteers like Mervyn King who advocated an Irish Sea border right at the beginning, and said it would be one of the positives of Brexit.

    It’s quite likely that May was only thinking of thwarting the SNP and hadn’t fully considered the Northern Irish dimension at the time.
    Yes, it is now clear that despite droning on endlessly about the “Irish Border” (it isn’t: it is the British Border in Ireland)
    I'm fairly sure it's also the Irish border.
    The Irish Border is the beach. The line you see on modern maps was unilaterally drawn by Westminster and Whitehall a century ago.
    This adds nothing to the conversation. What a pointless comment.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    MattW said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Having just caught up with (some of) the earlier threat, and in particular how to ensure affordable housing. A few thoughts:

    3. There are too few council tax bands, especially at the top end. This also discourages trading down. You should be able to save money in terms of council tax by going from a large house to a smaller one, or to an apartment.

    4. Don't think that renting is automatically bad and owning good. Think in terms of overall property supply. Many of the proposals from government of all colours have worked to discourage people renting properties out, which has the knock on effect of discouraging construction, as it is a supply of additional properties for sale.

    5. Remember the mantra: things that improve the efficiency of the market (i.e. encourage better utilisation) are good.

    If renting is seen as the norm, politicians will seek policies that are favourable to renters, as already happens in Germany, where there are average market price rent controls and security of tenancies.
    I'd say that RCS has it here.

    Politicians have not got a clue what is favourable to renters. The pillock Brokenshire cannot even get it right that the PRS is shrinking quite rapidly.

    Policies that politicians think are favourable to renters are often nothing of the kind, and are in practice just populist or dancing to lobbyist tunes.

    The Tenant Fees Act that came into force last week is a Dog's Breakfast, which will have multiple negative impacts.

    In practice rents will rise, just as they did in Scotland (*), and the implementation is such a mess that they have seriously damaged Deposit Protection, undermined pet tenancies (which has been increasing significantly), tilted the expenses against long-term tenants, and all kind of costs are now going to be averaged across all tenants rather than attributed to those who caused them.

    But this is about politics, not helping people.

    The German regulation regime would have allowed rents to increase far faster here than has happened over the last 2 decades.

    * Just in case, here are the Scottish Govt statistics for PRS rent increases. Since the fee ban in 2012 in Scotland, all numbers have significantly beat CPI inflation, which is just about 10%.

    image

    Ref:https://www.gov.scot/publications/private-sector-rent-statistics-2010-2018/pages/8/
    Maybe so. Point is, renters see these controls as valuable and so politicians are happy to provide. Renters are getting to be a more important demographic than those that invest in property. All thanks to the changing housing market which puts property ownership out of reach for many people.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s interesting to know that possession of Cocaine no longer carries a fine or custodial sentence under certain circumstances. All you have to do is run for Tory leader.

    Isn't it more the case that a prosecution based on someone claiming they did something but with no other evidence would be bound to fail?
    That seems a bit unlikely given a 'guilty' plea is usually sufficient to lock someone up.
    Rather more difficult if the defendant says they did it and then in court pleads not guilty....
    Jonathan's deeper point (I think) is valid, though - there's a real difference in how the middle classes treat experiments with drugs (amused tolerance, not a hindrance to being PM) and the devastating effect that a drugs charge can have on someone at the bottom of the pile (criminal record, serious employment difficulty).

    It's something that is massively affected by your circle of friends. I know people who have never been even offered drugs, let alone refused, and people who find that incredible, like never having drunk coffee. As a society we are seriously mixed up about the whole area.
    Out of interest what is the social background of the people who have never been offered drugs? I find it hard to believe many of them can have been at university or grown up in a city.
    You may be surprised to learn that there are plenty of people who neither went to university nor grew up in a city; I'm one.
    I did both and live in a London suburb, but have no idea where to buy cocaine or even cannabis.

    Nick Palmer is probably right: it depends on your circle of friends, and class. Probably like most people, I am not much exercised by people using drugs but am appalled by the social costs in crime and violence.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    ydoethur said:

    I'm surprised the NI Unionist support has held so long. The Irish Sea border has been unthinkable. Why? What about an NI referendum on the matter?

    Let's face it NI is a foreign place to many Brits. It absorbs a considerable public subsidy - as big as net EU contributions. As soon as there is a hung parliament their leaders act like extortionists. I can't believe there is the sort of sympathy on the mainland that there was in the days of Trimble and Hume and the IRA. We now have the DUP and Sinn Fein.

    It’s actually another example of the way May successfully shaped the narrative, even before she became reliant on the DUP. Her early ‘precious union’ rhetoric and insistence that there could be no bespoke Brexit solution for each part of the UK contradicted Brexiteers like Mervyn King who advocated an Irish Sea border right at the beginning, and said it would be one of the positives of Brexit.

    It’s quite likely that May was only thinking of thwarting the SNP and hadn’t fully considered the Northern Irish dimension at the time.
    Yes, it is now clear that despite droning on endlessly about the “Irish Border” (it isn’t: it is the British Border in Ireland)
    I'm fairly sure it's also the Irish border.
    The Irish Border is the beach. The line you see on modern maps was unilaterally drawn by Westminster and Whitehall a century ago.
    This adds nothing to the conversation. What a pointless comment.
    Even the Irish themselves recognise NI isn't part of their country.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    I'm surprised the NI Unionist support has held so long. The Irish Sea border has been unthinkable. Why? What about an NI referendum on the matter?

    Let's face it NI is a foreign place to many Brits. It absorbs a considerable public subsidy - as big as net EU contributions. As soon as there is a hung parliament their leaders act like extortionists. I can't believe there is the sort of sympathy on the mainland that there was in the days of Trimble and Hume and the IRA. We now have the DUP and Sinn Fein.

    It’s actually another example of the way May successfully shaped the narrative, even before she became reliant on the DUP. Her early ‘precious union’ rhetoric and insistence that there could be no bespoke Brexit solution for each part of the UK contradicted Brexiteers like Mervyn King who advocated an Irish Sea border right at the beginning, and said it would be one of the positives of Brexit.

    It’s quite likely that May was only thinking of thwarting the SNP and hadn’t fully considered the Northern Irish dimension at the time.
    Yes, it is now clear that despite droning on endlessly about the “Irish Border” (it isn’t: it is the British Border in Ireland)
    I'm fairly sure it's also the Irish border.
    The Irish Border is the beach. The line you see on modern maps was unilaterally drawn by Westminster and Whitehall a century ago.
    I think you will find that in 1999 Ireland amended its constitution (specifically, by rewriting Article 2) to draw a distinction between the 'island of Ireland' and 'the Irish nation' to formally exclude Northern Ireland from the latter.

    Therefore, it is now the Irish border.
This discussion has been closed.