politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Euro elections – what we know about turnout local authorit

> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/lucianaberger/status/1132183530820263936

So start a new party and get people voting for it.

Oh.

> @Scott_P said:
>
>
> Knifing BoZo is probably the greatest act of public service Gove will ever perform, but it doesn't make up for the cardinal sin of supporting him in the first place. "We have had enough of experts" will be his epitaph

I think it was vice versa. Boris Johnson was talked into backing Brexit because Gove’s support reassured him he would have enough political cover.

> @Jonathan said:
> The Corbynites fear Jess. They can’t handle popular independent people.

She's also quite stylish. She does a great line in ear rings. Also a fine self publicist without being tacky. A good contrast to Boris and McVey.

> @ydoethur said:
> our gutter press (yes, I'm looking at you, Daily Telegraph).
>
> Dr Palmer, on a point of order, please withdraw that remark.
>
> It is unfair to gutters.

Which are both ubiquitous, and serve a useful function.
Not just unfair, but wildly inaccurate.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1132188391452422144

Jonathan said:

In 1975, Thatcher became leader under exceptional circumstances. She was not assumed to last long. Yet, she stayed for 15 years.



Are we all assuming that the next Tory leader could be hear for a couple of years, when they could be here far longer. Even if they don’t quite make it to 2034, the next decade could be owned by Boris/Raab/Hunt etc.

Taking the Leadership in opposition, then winning an election or two is how to last. Modern politics is very intolerant of election losers. Hard to see any of the candidates for Tory leadership lasting.

In which universe does anyone consider Hancock a potential Prime Minister? His mother really should have a word.

> @TheJezziah said:
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > Good point, is Skelator back? Never saw him as a potential leader, whilst Burgon is being groomed. Burgon has cornered the Grayling award for the ego to competence ratio. A product of nepotism.
>
> >
>
> > Still suspended I'm pretty sure. Burgon is quite a long shot himself, I guess on the basis of having a job in shadow cabinet and being quite young (AFAIK) he could have decent shot at some point in the future but he doesn't seem a realistic shot for the next leader.
>
> >
>
> > More likely than Chris Williamson admittedly...
>
>
>
> Who on your opinion are likely candidates? I am curious.
>
>
>
> We’re technically in the same party.
>
> Not sure I hear much different to you...
>
> I hear Angela Rayner, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Emily Thornberry and Laura Pidcock talked about as good prospects for a Corbyn friendly electorate (as in the Labour membership who pick the leader) and with the talk of the next leader being a woman. If the next leader can be a man if he is BAME then Clive Lewis similarly is on good terms with the left.
>
> That is a general circumstances list though and specifically about those who could appeal and win with the current membership. Keir is a good possibility in the very specific circumstances of Brexit and a second referendum being a live issue but outside of that less so.
>
> A lot depends on the circumstances. The difference between Corbyn standing down from ill health tomorrow, or losing big in an election or handing over to someone in x years make a big difference.
>
> Also not sure on the more right of the party candidates. Jess is good at self promotion, Keir is somewhat flavour of the Month/Year and I guess would be backed by some on the right but some of that is circumstance related as mentioned before. Who do you think the right would be putting up as candidates?
>
> The Yvette Cooper mention/support seems to have fallen back somewhat.

Labour needs a leader anchored on the left, but without Jezza baggage and capable of engaging and exciting the 30-40% of Labour members and 60%+ of Labour voters that Corbyn has put off. Someone who can do the hard work of bringing Labour back to electability. Ideally someone with an open mind and a bit of spirit. It should also be a woman.

Answers on a postcard.

> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1132188391452422144

I don't think this is a very good line. Does Hancock not think he could beat Corbyn in a General Election ?

Weak.

> @thecommissioner said:
> > @nico67 said:
>
> >
>
> > The EU are going to dig their heels in and will never offer Bozo anything , they won’t make him the hero for the Leavers.
>
> >
>
> The EU doesn't care about "heroes or villans" for Brexit. They only want the best for 27 member countries and have dug their heals because the attempted negotiations from the British side go too far.
>
>
>
> Why don't people get this?
>
> Wanting what's best for EU states has seen them blink and extend on both occasions that No Deal has become a possibility.

Never mind blinking, you are blinkered. The EU is extending because they think there's still a decent chance of Brexit being abandoned.

> @IanB2 said:
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The EU are going to dig their heels in and will never offer Bozo anything , they won’t make him the hero for the Leavers.
> >
> > >
> >
> > The EU doesn't care about "heroes or villans" for Brexit. They only want the best for 27 member countries and have dug their heals because the attempted negotiations from the British side go too far.
> >
> >
> >
> > Why don't people get this?
> >
> > Wanting what's best for EU states has seen them blink and extend on both occasions that No Deal has become a possibility.
>
> Never mind blinking, you are blinkered. The EU is extending because they think there's still a decent chance of Brexit being abandoned.

My other issue with this argument is that extending A50 didn't really cost the EU anything. But agreeing to split the single market or put a time limit on the backstop would be a major concession, so I'm not sure the fact they did the extension suggests they'll offer the latter.

> @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1132168923502252033
>
> There's no pleasing some Tories.
>
> First they complain Theresa May was inflexible. Now they complain Boris U-turns overnight.
>
> Boris is like Trump in that regard: self-contradiction; inconsistency; no underpinning political philosophy.

He's not at all like Trump.

Say what you like about Trump but he's done exactly what he promised. All of it.

Boris is a rat who'd sell his own mother if he thought it'd advance his own career. Even his kids don't like him.

> @Scott_P said:
> Still on staircases, Downing Street’s Norma Desmond is finally to descend hers on 7 June. Gallingly, she must still put up with noises off from her former chief of staff. Nick Timothy really is the Paul Burrell of politics, dining out shamelessly on his various betrayals of his former boss. Nick used this week’s Telegraph column to state that “warning signs” were there from the start with May’s personality, that the 2017 election was “a disaster” and the Tory campaign “poor”. Dramatists, is there such a thing as reverse character development, where the character actually knows less at the end than he did at the beginning? Where his understanding of the situation is akin to a highly unstable radioactive isotope with an incredibly short half-life? Because really: THIS GUY.
>
> Then again: ALL OF US. It feels like we’re back where we were in July 2016, only with many, many more things broken. Haven’t we already found out what happened when Andrea Leadsom launches a leadership bid? Isn’t she still Brexit’s second-stupidest Andrea (Jenkyns will always edge it)? Don’t we know what Boris Johnson’s like? Why are we doing it again? It’s like there’s some tear in the worst-possible ideas continuum.
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/24/theresa-may-tory-downing-street-leadership-contest

That really does test my patience. The sheer nerve.

Lord Salisbury Part II wrote the whole bloody 2017 manifesto. No responsibility taken at all.

TheJezziah said:

Jonathan said:

> @TheJezziah said:

> Good point, is Skelator back? Never saw him as a potential leader, whilst Burgon is being groomed. Burgon has cornered the Grayling award for the ego to competence ratio. A product of nepotism.

>

> Still suspended I'm pretty sure. Burgon is quite a long shot himself, I guess on the basis of having a job in shadow cabinet and being quite young (AFAIK) he could have decent shot at some point in the future but he doesn't seem a realistic shot for the next leader.

>

> More likely than Chris Williamson admittedly...



Who on your opinion are likely candidates? I am curious.



We’re technically in the same party.

Not sure I hear much different to you...

I hear Angela Rayner, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Emily Thornberry and Laura Pidcock talked about as good prospects for a Corbyn friendly electorate (as in the Labour membership who pick the leader) and with the talk of the next leader being a woman. If the next leader can be a man if he is BAME then Clive Lewis similarly is on good terms with the left.

That is a general circumstances list though and specifically about those who could appeal and win with the current membership. Keir is a good possibility in the very specific circumstances of Brexit and a second referendum being a live issue but outside of that less so.

A lot depends on the circumstances. The difference between Corbyn standing down from ill health tomorrow, or losing big in an election or handing over to someone in x years make a big difference.

Also not sure on the more right of the party candidates. Jess is good at self promotion, Keir is somewhat flavour of the Month/Year and I guess would be backed by some on the right but some of that is circumstance related as mentioned before. Who do you think the right would be putting up as candidates?

The Yvette Cooper mention/support seems to have fallen back somewhat.

Well your first selections are very unimpressive and leave the electorate cold. Starmer looks ok no mention of your best asset Benn though with Jess on joint ticket could actually win.

> @Casino_Royale said:

> He's not at all like Trump.
>
> Say what you like about Trump but he's done exactly what he promised. All of it.
>
> Boris is a rat who'd sell his own mother if he thought it'd advance his own career. Even his kids don't like him.

Quite - I wouldn't vote for him, but Trump is even delivering on the wall despite the pursestrings being Democrat controlled.

> @TheJezziah said:
> Labour needs a leader anchored on the left, but without Jezza baggage and capable of engaging and exciting the 30-40% of Labour members and 60%+ of Labour voters that Corbyn has put off. Someone who can do the hard work of bringing Labour back to electability. Ideally someone with an open mind and a bit of spirit. It should also be a woman.
>
>
>
> Answers on a postcard.
>
> I give you names and specifics and you give me vague goals and ambitions... this is why CUK is polling so low!
>
>
>
> TBH you are talking about a Labour leader to win the next election (or at least it sound like it) as much as you may want it I don't think there will be a contest before then. I imagine the Labour vote from the last election could win the next election, depending what happens with Brexit, the Brexit Party and the Tory leadership then you might not need to win more votes than last time.
>
> Exciting the left, won't be easy (or maybe that doable) but not pissing them off, keeping them engaged should be easy enough. As long as there isn't a feeling of well that was a bad dream back to business as usual.

The goal is winning the next election. Something has to change for that to happen. The brighter members of the leadership like McDonald see that. A change of leader is one way to do it. A broader approach is another.

From your list Rayner is most interesting. Thornberry is the safe choice. Pidcock would kill the party in weeks. Lewis is a mixed bag.

Mr. Royale, shade unfair on rats.

As an aside, the rat in the Chinese zodiac won the race.

What are the odds on Heidi Allen resigning on Monday if/when Change UK fail to win any seats in the Euros?

> @Jonathan said:

> Labour needs a leader anchored on the left, but without Jezza baggage and capable of engaging and exciting the 30-40% of Labour members and 60%+ of Labour voters that Corbyn has put off. Someone who can do the hard work of bringing Labour back to electability. Ideally someone with an open mind and a bit of spirit. It should also be a woman.
>
> Answers on a postcard.

Labour needed CHUK to work - a viable jump ship option for people just as BXP has provided for UKIP. Unless the polls are wrong, and unless Chukka has some fabulous cunning plan up his sleeve, then they couldn't have fucked this up harder had they tried.

So back to plan A - rescue the party from the crazies. What the Fall and Rise of Reggie "Bollocks to Brexit" Cable has shown is that an abrupt about turn and some chutzpah can resurrect even the deadest of parties. Here and now Labour is dead in Scotland and dying in the north and midlands. The Corbyn cancer continues to hungrily devour what's left, but it can be turned around.

Personally I would bring back Ed Milliband. Ignore the crap about him knowing his brother in the back - David was crap and utterly lacked the emotional intelligence of Ed. People can be thrown into the spotlight, be judged harshly, and then be rehabilitated by the passing of time and calmness of behaviour out of the spotlight. We need an established leader with a heart and a mission.

Bring back Ed. And fuck Corbyn and all the causes of Corbyn

> @isam said:
> No wonder Remainers want a referendum between Remain and a deal!
>
> https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1132188761520054272

So a plurality of Tory voters want No Deal and a majority of both Tory and All voters want Brexit with a Deal or without a Deal.

Where Deal voters go is thus key if the Commons has not passed the Withdrawal Agreement by October as is or with any amendments agreed with the EU

ah009 said:

Something I expect to see in the coming weeks: a close Johnson ally will hint darkly that if he is kept off the members' ballot, he will defect to the Brexit Party.

Not that I think for a minute he'd follow through. But I believe it'll be a tactic used to scare anti-Johnson MPs into not keeping him off the ballot.

It'll be done with plausible deniability, but it'll be from Johnson's camp.

I could see that. He is popular with the members but he is so entitled, certain that he must be allowed through and no matter the rules.

> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1132188391452422144

Hancock's Half Hour.

RochdalePioneers said:

I've just seen her speech for the first time. She filled up, turned and marched at speed into Downing Street where I expect she cried. When you feel emotional it's hard not to crack - I did a couple of weeks back during my best man speech for an old friend.



I've heard lots of negative comments today about her emotion, and seen the photos taken. She may be an utterly shit politician. But she remains a living feeling human who has continued on with her sense of duty long after most people would have quit.



She deserves our respect.

Rubbish , maybe if she had an ounce of emotion during her tenure rather than about herself being chucked out there may have been a case. She had no emotion for all the people she ruined during her stay and only her love of herself in the job kept her there so long , any normal human would have known they had been found out and packed it in long ago.
No sympathy and certainly no respect.

nico67 said:

Matt Hancock , another vomit inducing hypocrite who now is “ a true believer “.



Rory Stewart at least has some principles and not willing to sell his soul to the Tory Membership No Deal Death Cult .

The two most principled people in the entire race are Rory Stewart and Steve Baker.

edmundintokyo said:

> @isam said:

> No wonder Remainers want a referendum between Remain and a deal!



In a Remain vs Deal referendum I think Deal would gain over time, because Brexit people would gradually swing behind it when they heard their side arguing for it against Remain.



From point of view of Remain winning a referendum I think I'd slightly prefer Deal as an opponent over No Deal, but it's not a no-brainer. But what I'd really want is for the thing Remain is up against to be clearly *one* of those two options rather than up against a generic "Leave", whether that option selection was done by multiple rounds, AV or MPs just leaving one of the options off the ballot paper.

I’m sure you would!!

Foxy said:

> @Casino_Royale said:

> > @twistedfirestopper3 said:

> > May didn't shed a tear in public for Grenfell, Windrush, Universal Credit or any number of events or harmful Tory policy. She only cracked when she had to leave her highly paid job because she wasn't very good at it. Sympathy? Nah.

>

> She's borderline autistic.

>

> I don't hold public weeping, or not public weeping, against her.



I don't think she is. She is just socially awkward and inflexible of mind. We do not need to medicalise her personality.

Agreed. Whether she is or not armchair diagnosis wont indicate that.

Still bitter and twisted here though. And no that doesnt mean that only nice things are permitted or no criticism is possible. But

> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/TomKibasi/status/1132075011139952641

No need, Steve Baker suggested he would stand in a No Deal anti Withdrawal Agreement ticket yesterday and Mark Francois said he would support him if he did on Newsnight

> @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @Mango said:
> > > > @ThomasNashe said:
> > > > Really impressive interview from Rory. It's a sad fact that the one manifestly superior candidate clearly has no chance.
> > >
> > > You mean the only one that is not utterly batshit?
> > >
> > > I agree, by the way.
> > >
> > > Doesn't mean I like him, mind.
> >
> > Rory can’t lead this lot. He’s in the wrong party for starters, far too thoughtful for this lot. Leaving that aside, I just can’t see him stamping his authority over the big beasts. This is all about getting a decent cabinet job for Rory.
>
> He has just said he will not serve with Boris. So much for unity
>
> To be fair he seems far too light weight and to rule himself out of a Boris cabinet will not help to raise his future profile

As I've said passim, loyalty will be the biggest issue facing any ERGer or prominent leaver if they become party leader / PM. They have shown massive disloyalty to May (and in some cases Cameron, Major, Thatcher before); they have no right to expect loyalty when they get the job.

As for Rory: good on him, and I hope more Conservatives feel the same way. I will never vote Conservative with Boris at the helm, or for anyone who has the ERGers whispering orders into their ears.

It may also work the other way for Rory: if a Boris premiership is the disaster many expect it to be (me included), then he's setting himself up as the I-told-you-so sane candidate in a future campaign. And he's young enough to be around in ten or twenty years - as long as he doesn't get bored.

> @isam said:
>
> I’m sure you would!!

Yes, having one real thing up against another real thing.

Or perhaps generic leave can go up against Remain+, which involves transfers of €100 billion to the UK budget every year, and free holidays in the Med for all UK citizens

Happy Towel Day all you hoopy froods.

> @kle4 said:
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
>
> > > May didn't shed a tear in public for Grenfell, Windrush, Universal Credit or any number of events or harmful Tory policy. She only cracked when she had to leave her highly paid job because she wasn't very good at it. Sympathy? Nah.
>
> >
>
> > She's borderline autistic.
>
> >
>
> > I don't hold public weeping, or not public weeping, against her.
>
>
>
> I don't think she is. She is just socially awkward and inflexible of mind. We do not need to medicalise her personality.
>
> Agreed. Whether she is or not armchair diagnosis wont indicate that.
>
> Still bitter and twisted here though. And no that doesnt mean that only nice things are permitted or no criticism is possible. But

The heart tells me to feel sorry for her, but I'm afraid the head tells me the cynics have a point.

> @malcolmg said:
> The state of replies to this......
>
> https://twitter.com/JustinWelby/status/1131878325159366656
>
>
>
> What a bellend, is it any wonder these churches are circling the drain.

Even Sturgeon thanked May for her service, clearly something your partisanship could never consider

Mr. Tokyo, I strongly suspect Remain would win.

Their voters would be very motivated whereas the Deal would depress (in both turnout and emotional terms) Leave voters who feel their options are ignoring the first result and implementing a deal that some will consider leaving in name only, or to be actually worse than remaining.

Of course, last time I predicted and expected, for a long time, Remain to win at a canter (60/40), so...

NickPalmer said:

On May: there's nothing inconsistent in feeling that someone has pursued reprehensible policies incompetently and being sorry for them when they cry in public and are lampooned by our gutter press (yes, I'm looking at you, Daily Telegraph). Assessing policies and feeling sorry for a human are two entirely different things.


.

Indeed. I dont know why that seems a struggle.

And if people feel she never did that, well, be better than her .

Mr. G, "That egotistical lying toerag of a bellend will try it for sure" - get off the fence, man!

You have to laugh at almost the entire cabinet past and recent announcing that only they uniquely can rescue both the Tory party and Brexit. The country? At least 5th on their list of priorities.

With all of them announcing that it has to be them and not any of their immediate colleagues is it any wonder that the party of government has ended up stuck in office unable to govern? And how do the metrics chance once one of them wins? The same cretinous egos will be there, the same parliamentary maths will be there. Nothing has changed!

> @Pulpstar said:
> Matt Hancock , another vomit inducing hypocrite who now is “ a true believer “.
>
>
>
> Rory Stewart at least has some principles and not willing to sell his soul to the Tory Membership No Deal Death Cult .
>
> The two most principled people in the entire race are Rory Stewart and Steve Baker.

True , I despise Baker but at least he’s not suddenly changing position . If there’s one thing I can’t stand it’s Remainers like Hunt and Javid who have suddenly found their Brexit God !

Foxy said:

nichomar said:

Jonathan said:

The Corbynites fear Jess. They can’t handle popular independent people.

Especially female ones

Yes, and ones that point out that the emperor has no clothes:

https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1131866914148495360?s=19

I am curious what the reaction will be if labour actually do fine in this election. Its like 2017 - some lab mps really dislike Corbyn and his politics, but for others they worries he would lead them to a massive defeat, and melted away when he did not.

Jess is not one of those, but if she looks to have panicked about how bad things are unnecessarily it must surely impact how she proceeds.

> @kle4 said:
> The Corbynites fear Jess. They can’t handle popular independent people.
>
> Especially female ones
>
> Yes, and ones that point out that the emperor has no clothes:
>
> https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1131866914148495360
>
>
>
> I am curious what the reaction will be if labour actually do fine in this election. Its like 2017 - some lab mps really dislike Corbyn and his politics, but for others they worries he would lead them to a massive defeat, and melted away when he did not.
>
> Jess is not one of those, but if she looks to have panicked about how bad things are unnecessarily it must surely impact how she proceeds.

Labour are not going to do fine. Fine is being ready to take office. Fine is winning it with a safety margin. Labour are not fine.

Jonathan said:

In 1975, Thatcher became leader under exceptional circumstances. She was not assumed to last long. Yet, she stayed for 15 years.



Are we all assuming that the next Tory leader could be hear for a couple of years, when they could be here far longer. Even if they don’t quite make it to 2034, the next decade could be owned by Boris/Raab/Hunt etc.

The next Tory leader will lose the next GE and we seem allergic to allowing defeated leaders to carry on now unless they they were expected to be walloped and only just lost

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

nichomar said:

Jonathan said:

The Corbynites fear Jess. They can’t handle popular independent people.

Especially female ones

Yes, and ones that point out that the emperor has no clothes:

https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1131866914148495360?s=19

I am curious what the reaction will be if labour actually do fine in this election. Its like 2017 - some lab mps really dislike Corbyn and his politics, but for others they worries he would lead them to a massive defeat, and melted away when he did not.

Jess is not one of those, but if she looks to have panicked about how bad things are unnecessarily it must surely impact how she proceeds.

On the other hand, if she is correct...

> @stjohn said:
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1132188391452422144
>
> Hancock's Half Hour.

Hancock's half-cocked.

HYUFD said:

> @Scott_P said:

>

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1132174600840929280

>

>

>

>

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1132174579525402624

Yes Liam Fox was anti No Deal at a dinner I attended with him last week because as a Scot he felt it risked Scotland and Northern Ireland leaving the EU

LOL, the balloon would struggle to tie his shoelaces. As if he cares a jot about Scotland, he wants to remain with his snout deep in the trough. A Toom Tabard as far as Scotland is concerned.

Foxy said:

TheJezziah said:

williamglenn said:

> @TheJezziah said:

> Labour needed CHUK to work - a viable jump ship option for people

>

> I sort of agreed up to this point. Labour needed CUK in the way Matthew Parris used to describe UKIP to the Tories as drawing some of the crazies out. Unfortunately the electoral realities of centrism kicked in before they could attract a few more Labour MPs.



The electoral realities borne out by a surge in support for the Lib Dems?

They imagined something more Brexit Party, they know the Lib Dems can't win the next election.

Labour are going to be humiliated tommorow. I stand by my prediction that they will be fourth. Yet we will still be told Jezza is an election winner.

WT actual F are you expecting to be third?!!!