politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Esther McVey puts her hat into the ring for TMay’s successor
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Falling into the backstop would be No Deal 2.0. The path of least resistance would be to extend the transition period as long as possible.Sean_F said:Why would the Conservatives accept such demands? The Backstop would be better.
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> @nico67 said:
> I’m surprised Labour are polling that high for the EU elections.
>
> I would have expected to see a bigger shift to pro second vote parties .
Socialists still wanting to vote for a Socialist party. Not for Tory mini-mes or Soubry and her mates.0 -
But Corbyn's supporters keep telling us he isn't a socialist...SandyRentool said:Socialists still wanting to vote for a Socialist party. Not for Tory mini-mes or Soubry and her mates.
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> @ydoethur said:
> Socialists still wanting to vote for a Socialist party. Not for Tory mini-mes or Soubry and her mates.
>
> But Corbyn's supporters keep telling us he isn't a socialist...
Who is saying that?0 -
> @JohnO said:
>
> I’m in a bit of a dilemma. The top 2 Tories in the SE are Dan Hannan (whom I can’t abide) and Nirj Diva (whom I can’t take seriously). I will never vote for another party so the choices are not bothering at all, spoiling the ballot, or tightly holding the nose and put the X in the usual place.
Why will you never vote for another party? I can't understand such tribal loyalty.0 -
I remeber when smug complacent people on here said Kavanaugh being confirmed wouldn't see an assault on Roe vs Wade
https://twitter.com/arlenparsa/status/1126525787451154432?s=190 -
Well that news passed me by...apparently the OK sign is some racist signal, after first being a joke of a racist signal...
https://www.bbc.com/sport/baseball/482143030 -
Raab is more B’Stard, but Osborne sounds just like Piers Fletcher-Dervish to meRoger said:> @Cyclefree said:
>
>
>
>
> They won’t be discussing the weather.
There's something of the Alan B'Stard about Williamson. It's quite endearing in a Tory0 -
George Eaton, for one:SandyRentool said:> @ydoethur said:
> Socialists still wanting to vote for a Socialist party. Not for Tory mini-mes or Soubry and her mates.
>
> But Corbyn's supporters keep telling us he isn't a socialist...
Who is saying that?
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/labours-manifesto-more-keynesian-marxist0 -
On a lighter note looking good for Chelsea v Arsenal Europa final
That would be fantastic for Premiership football and make Europe sit up0 -
It is literally in the modern Nazi handbook to co-opt benign gestures and symbols and reuse them. This gives them cover to deny their connection when confronted and then mock their accusers all the while affirming it to their inner circle.FrancisUrquhart said:Well that news passed me by...apparently the OK sign is some racist signal, after first being a joke of a racist signal...
https://www.bbc.com/sport/baseball/482143030 -
> @ydoethur said:
> > @ydoethur said:
>
> > Socialists still wanting to vote for a Socialist party. Not for Tory mini-mes or Soubry and her mates.
>
> >
>
> > But Corbyn's supporters keep telling us he isn't a socialist...
>
>
>
> Who is saying that?
>
> George Eaton, for one:
>
> https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/labours-manifesto-more-keynesian-marxist
That article says that McDonnell is a Marxist.
Nowhere does it say that Jezza isn't a Socialist.
Are you conflating Marxism and Socialism? If so you are misguided.0 -
Evening all
On topic, we have another long shot Conservative leadership challenge on whom "someone has had a few quid" at a big price.
I presume that translates as "if I say I've backed them at 66s, all the numpties will pile in and I'll cash out at 25s" - money for old rope really. There's no point worrying about being green or red on the outcome, you can make your wedge before a vote has been cast or a contest called.0 -
> @ydoethur said:
> > @ydoethur said:
>
> > Socialists still wanting to vote for a Socialist party. Not for Tory mini-mes or Soubry and her mates.
>
> >
>
> > But Corbyn's supporters keep telling us he isn't a socialist...
>
>
>
> Who is saying that?
>
> George Eaton, for one:
>
> https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/labours-manifesto-more-keynesian-marxist
George Eaton wouldn't recognise a Socialist if one nationalized his Audi0 -
> @Alistair said:
> Well that news passed me by...apparently the OK sign is some racist signal, after first being a joke of a racist signal...
>
>
>
> https://www.bbc.com/sport/baseball/48214303
>
> It is literally in the modern Nazi handbook to co-opt benign gestures and symbols and reuse them. This gives them cover to deny their connection when confronted and then mock their accusers all the while affirming it to their inner circle.
Everyone who disagrees with me is a nazi.0 -
> @AlastairMeeks said:
> I’m an Esther investor too. She might just take light.
She'd need to keep her gob shut.0 -
> @another_richard said:
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > I’m an Esther investor too. She might just take light.
>
> She'd need to keep her gob shut.
Chicken and a can o coke for all0 -
The OK sign is with the palm facing forward, so this isn't OK. Consider the difference between the V sign palm forwards and dorsum forwards.FrancisUrquhart said:Well that news passed me by...apparently the OK sign is some racist signal, after first being a joke of a racist signal...
https://www.bbc.com/sport/baseball/482143030 -
It's interesting to note as well that some socialists dispute the Jezaster's socialist credentials:
http://www.socialiststudies.org.uk/article corbynsocialist.shtml
Although you wonder whether they are the Judaean People's Front or the People's Front of Judaea.0 -
> @stodge said:
> Evening all
>
> On topic, we have another long shot Conservative leadership challenge on whom "someone has had a few quid" at a big price.
>
> I presume that translates as "if I say I've backed them at 66s, all the numpties will pile in and I'll cash out at 25s" - money for old rope really. There's no point worrying about being green or red on the outcome, you can make your wedge before a vote has been cast or a contest called.
In a race like this you don’t need to pump and dump. Enough will have their time in the sun to justify some long shots. Esther McVey has been separately tipped by, I think, OGH, TSE, Tissue_Price and me at different times (I apologise in advance if I have misremembered). She has a constituency and she’s not a no-hoper.0 -
The Opinium and Com Res numbers on EU Parliament voting intention broadly similar. Two battles going on - one to top the poll between the BP and Labour and the other for third place between CON and LD. If enough CUK supporters swing behind the LDs, could we see the Conservatives finishing fourth in a national poll?0
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> @IanB2 said:
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.
> >
> >
> >
> > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.
> >
> >
> >
> > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain
> >
> > And yet you continue to equivocate over whether you should support “(your) party” or not, which seems to rather coincidentally correlate with how well it’s doing and how it’s perceived.
> >
> > I think RoyalBlue had you bang to rights when he described you as a Fair Weather Friend. The contrast with JohnO, a true loyalist, who is still a man very much of his own views and mind, is stark.
> >
> > I wouldn’t want you anywhere near me in the trenches. You are just a slightly more level-headed and polite version of Bob Sykes.
> >
> > Ouch CR, that's just plain nasty.
> >
> > Nothing nasty about it. I call it as I see it and it’s fair comment. We’re all adults here.
> >
> > It’s fine to consider yourself a floating voter. It’s fine to call yourself a centrist who sometimes (or usually) votes Tory, as DavidL does.
> >
> > But, it really grates to genuflect as a true party loyalist, criticising those who are not as not representing “my party”, whilst openly admitting voting Blair twice at the height of his powers and a strong desire to vote Lib Dem now.
> >
> > Sorry, but there it is. And I stand by it.
>
> The only reason to vote Tory in this election is if you are related to one of the candidates
Or if you actually want a sensible, or probably any, Brexit.0 -
As an expert on Russian and Soviet History, I am tolerably familiar with the difference between 'Marxism' and 'Socialism' as well as the overlap between the two - notably their failures, which Brezhnev called 'developed Socialism.' But Keynesians are definitely not Sociaists, and Eaton was calling Corbyn a Keynesian.SandyRentool said:Are you conflating Marxism and Socialism? If so you are misguided.
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> @another_richard said:
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > I’m an Esther investor too. She might just take light.
>
> She'd need to keep her gob shut.
As if saying stupid things is an impediment for Tory leadership contenders.0 -
> @Foxy said:
> Well that news passed me by...apparently the OK sign is some racist signal, after first being a joke of a racist signal...
>
>
>
> https://www.bbc.com/sport/baseball/48214303
>
> The OK sign is with the palm facing forward, so this isn't OK. Consider the difference between the V sign palm forwards and dorsum forwards.
I still had no idea that this was some racist signal.0 -
Any Other 12/1... 🤔
Laying that is surely better than laying Farage as next PM at 25?
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> @AlastairMeeks said:
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > I’m an Esther investor too. She might just take light.
> >
> > She'd need to keep her gob shut.
>
> As if saying stupid things is an impediment for Tory leadership contenders.
Saying them in a shrill Scouse accent might be.0 -
Yes, teams managed by a German, Argentinian, Spaniard and Italian, and full of immigrant players flourishing in England.Big_G_NorthWales said:On a lighter note looking good for Chelsea v Arsenal Europa final
That would be fantastic for Premiership football and make Europe sit up
Quite a message!0 -
I think Rory Stewart and Esther McVey should team up and form a songwriting and singing due à la Serge Gainsbourg and Jane Birkin.0
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That really would be showbiz for ugly people!Recidivist said:I think Rory Stewart and Esther McVey should team up and form a songwriting and singing due à la Serge Gainsbourg and Jane Birkin.
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Yes, most of them at the top of their profession and on over 100k a week, just the reason so many working class voters are against mass immigration! 😂Foxy said:
Yes, teams managed by a German, Argentinian, Spaniard and Italian, and full of immigrant players flourishing in England.Big_G_NorthWales said:On a lighter note looking good for Chelsea v Arsenal Europa final
That would be fantastic for Premiership football and make Europe sit up
Quite a message!0 -
"Je m'aime... Moi aussi."Recidivist said:I think Rory Stewart and Esther McVey should team up and form a songwriting and singing due à la Serge Gainsbourg and Jane Birkin.
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> @Recidivist said:
> I think Rory Stewart and Esther McVey should team up and form a songwriting and singing due à la Serge Gainsbourg and Jane Birkin.
Je t’aime... pas EU0 -
The three extended fingers form a W, the index finger and thumb form a P. WP =White Power. It seems to be a more a US thing, and Americans are in a very bad place over race at the moment.FrancisUrquhart said:> @Foxy said:
> Well that news passed me by...apparently the OK sign is some racist signal, after first being a joke of a racist signal...
>
>
>
> https://www.bbc.com/sport/baseball/48214303
>
> The OK sign is with the palm facing forward, so this isn't OK. Consider the difference between the V sign palm forwards and dorsum forwards.
I still had no idea that this was some racist signal.0 -
A quick aside - the latest Danish opinion poll (election there on June 5th) gives the "Red Bloc" 58% of the vote and a commanding advantage over the centre-right "blue bloc". It's a dreadful poll for the Dansk Folkeparti which has collapsed to 11%, The Dansk Folkeparti and Venstre won 40.6% of the vote and 71 seats last time - they are down to 28% in this new poll.0
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> @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> On a lighter note looking good for Chelsea v Arsenal Europa final
>
> That would be fantastic for Premiership football and make Europe sit up
If there’s one thing we’ve learned this week it’s that it ain’t over till it’s over.0 -
> @Foxy said:
> On a lighter note looking good for Chelsea v Arsenal Europa final
>
>
>
> That would be fantastic for Premiership football and make Europe sit up
>
> Yes, teams managed by a German, Argentinian, Spaniard and Italian, and full of immigrant players flourishing in England.
>
> Quite a message!
It is indeed0 -
> @Foxy said:
> Well that news passed me by...apparently the OK sign is some racist signal, after first being a joke of a racist signal...
>
>
>
> https://www.bbc.com/sport/baseball/48214303
>
> The OK sign is with the palm facing forward, so this isn't OK. Consider the difference between the V sign palm forwards and dorsum forwards.
You lean something new every day on PB.0 -
> @bigjohnowls said:
> > @ydoethur said:
> > > @ydoethur said:
> >
> > > Socialists still wanting to vote for a Socialist party. Not for Tory mini-mes or Soubry and her mates.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > But Corbyn's supporters keep telling us he isn't a socialist...
> >
> >
> >
> > Who is saying that?
> >
> > George Eaton, for one:
> >
> > https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/labours-manifesto-more-keynesian-marxist
>
> George Eaton wouldn't recognise a Socialist if one nationalized his Audi
Bit like you and anti semitism then......0 -
Part 2 of BBC4's Brexit programme coming at 9pm.
Part 1 yesterday was compulsive viewing.0 -
> @stodge said:
> A quick aside - the latest Danish opinion poll (election there on June 5th) gives the "Red Bloc" 58% of the vote and a commanding advantage over the centre-right "blue bloc". It's a dreadful poll for the Dansk Folkeparti which has collapsed to 11%, The Dansk Folkeparti and Venstre won 40.6% of the vote and 71 seats last time - they are down to 28% in this new poll.
Any reasons?0 -
Their vote is going to new even more right-wing parties...Sean_F said:> @stodge said:
> A quick aside - the latest Danish opinion poll (election there on June 5th) gives the "Red Bloc" 58% of the vote and a commanding advantage over the centre-right "blue bloc". It's a dreadful poll for the Dansk Folkeparti which has collapsed to 11%, The Dansk Folkeparti and Venstre won 40.6% of the vote and 71 seats last time - they are down to 28% in this new poll.
Any reasons?
You could call it Voxification.0 -
We will have to see what happens, but on the whole I would expect that any LibDem poll boost from the Local Elections is likely to have faded by 23rd May. Beyond a few days only political anoraks are likely to recall those results, and the EU polls - for what they are worth - are not pointing to anything dramatic beyond the probability that the LibDems have seen off any threat from CUK.0
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Robert Buckland made Prisons Minister and Lucy Frazer becomes Solicitor General.0
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Jeez this programme should be the end of May.0
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Dr Andrew Murrison takes Alistair Burts old job at the Foreign Office.0
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The opinium GE poll earlier had Plaid on 1.1% which works out at around 20% in Wales. I can see that in Euros or WA but not in Westminster GE.0
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It may be because there are two new parties in this coming election. One is "The New Right" which originally split from the Danish Conservatives and is polling around 5% while Hard Line, which was formed in 2017 and is currently polling at 4%, is taking a very strongly anti-Islamic line and both are outflanking the DPP, the former on the economic front and the other on the immigration front.Sean_F said:Any reasons?
This fragmentation of their vote will cost the DPP and the centre-right "blue bloc" seats in the GE.0 -
Watching this Brexit documentary from the EU point of view on BBC4 makes even me want No Deal.0
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You're not a big fan of the Lib Dems are you?justin124 said:We will have to see what happens, but on the whole I would expect that any LibDem poll boost from the Local Elections is likely to have faded by 23rd May. Beyond a few days only political anoraks are likely to recall those results, and the EU polls - for what they are worth - are not pointing to anything dramatic beyond the probability that the LibDems have seen off any threat from CUK.
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Yup.Casino_Royale said:Watching this Brexit documentary from the EU point of view on BBC4 makes even me want No Deal.
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Remember what Gove told a few Leavers.Casino_Royale said:Watching this Brexit documentary from the EU point of view on BBC4 makes even me want No Deal.
(Sustained) No Deal means we rejoin the EU PDQ replete with all the things we're currently opted out of.0 -
I remember when he told the country we could dictate the terms if we voted for Brexit. Was he wrong?TheScreamingEagles said:
Remember what Gove told a few Leavers.Casino_Royale said:Watching this Brexit documentary from the EU point of view on BBC4 makes even me want No Deal.
(Sustained) No Deal means we rejoin the EU PDQ replete with all the things we're currently opted out of.0 -
He was epically wrong on so many fronts on the theory of Brexit, he's becoming an expert on the reality of Brexit.williamglenn said:
I remember when he told the country we could dictate the terms if we voted for Brexit. Was he wrong?TheScreamingEagles said:
Remember what Gove told a few Leavers.Casino_Royale said:Watching this Brexit documentary from the EU point of view on BBC4 makes even me want No Deal.
(Sustained) No Deal means we rejoin the EU PDQ replete with all the things we're currently opted out of.
But he's started to recant his more shameful behaviour during the referendum campaign.0 -
> @CatMan said:
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/minefornothing/status/1126473369610625024?s=20
>
> So 71% *DON'T* support no-deal Brexit then
show your working1 -
> @Floater said:
> > @Foxy said:
> > Well that news passed me by...apparently the OK sign is some racist signal, after first being a joke of a racist signal...
> >
> >
> >
> > https://www.bbc.com/sport/baseball/48214303
> >
> > The OK sign is with the palm facing forward, so this isn't OK. Consider the difference between the V sign palm forwards and dorsum forwards.
>
> You lean something new every day on PB.
The Christchurch attacker made the very same gesture in court, knowing his face was not being shown.0 -
Were you up for Curtis & Clarke?! 🤣
https://twitter.com/romfordrecorder/status/1126591047306551310?s=210 -
NEW THREAD0
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The backstop is just the prerequisite. The actual negotiations are still to happen and there's much more to them than just Ireland.Sean_F said:> @FF43 said:
> Chances are (of course) that I will turn up and will vote Tory. But I have pretty well reached the stage of not caring: Theresa May’s utterly useless and clueless incompetence has sucked the lifeblood from the party and this 45 plus years activist. I just want her gone. If that means Johnson or Raab, a lurch to No Deal and an early general election, let it be. David L is absolutely right - we cannot go on like this for a moment longer.
>
> I do accept the irony that not voting will accelerate her political demise. Hmmm.
>
> Conservatives still aren't near the ultimate humiliation stage of accepting every EU demand and crossing all of their red lines, which is likely to include ongoing payments, something that looks very like CFP, CAP, and FoM, actually a customs union, accepting all and every in scope future EU regulation long with CJEU oversight. This will happen whether it's May, Raab or Johnson.
>
> Leave is a minority in the UK now and almost all of that group are in denial about the realistic options available. I don't see a good outcome for your party.
Why would the Conservatives accept such demands? The Backstop would be better.
CFP (equivalent) because access to UK waters is a high priority item for Denmark, Spain and France, all of whom have a veto over the arrangement; CAP because UK farmers won't get access to their only substantial export market without it; Customs Union because of the Northern Irish land border and because car manufacturers who are in a fragile state can't function without it; also because there are WTO rules about customs unions that are somewhat binary; accepting all in scope future EU rules and EUCJ oversight because the EU won't accept close UK engagement without them and won't change the way it does things to accommodate an ex member.
It's what it is, really.
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Aren't most of the players involved non-English?Big_G_NorthWales said:On a lighter note looking good for Chelsea v Arsenal Europa final
That would be fantastic for Premiership football and make Europe sit up
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edit0
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If you follow @RomfordRecorder on twitter they have quite a good round up, inc video interviews w the candidates, for a tiny little council ward election tonight in Cranham
https://twitter.com/romfordrecorder/status/1126591047306551310?s=210 -
> @Endillion said:
> > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > @CatMan said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/minefornothing/status/1126473369610625024?s=20
> > >
> > > So 71% *DON'T* support no-deal Brexit then
> >
> > 24% remain
>
> 20% Remain, unless you're including UKIP in there...
> @ralphmalph said:
> Robert Buckland made Prisons Minister and Lucy Frazer becomes Solicitor General.
I was at University with Lucy. (And Gavin Barwell.)0
This discussion has been closed.