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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Esther McVey puts her hat into the ring for TMay’s successor

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Comments

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Artist said:

    it would have been counter productive for a remain alliance to stand in Peterborough as it would have greatly increased the chances of the Brexit Party getting a real breakthrough. Hence why the remain candidate pulled out probably.

    You would have to see this as good news for Labour. With The Faragistas unabashedly pitching for Tory votes and the threat from a United Remain front gone, they have to be hot favourites to hold the seat.

    That being said:
    If Labour's dismal performance last Thursday wasn't due to Brexit, and they were unable to exploit for electoral advantage a government in this much chaos - doesn't that suggest matters are far worse for them than we thought? I mean, Brexit will be over one way or another in a few months. But if they have then nothing to talk about - oh dear oh dear.

    If Labour lose Peterborough - to anybody - then Corbyn has to go, somehow. Even if the only way of doing it is for every member of the PLP with an IQ of above 5 (other than Macdonnell) to defect to the Liberal Democrats.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    > @JohnO said:

    >

    > I’m in a bit of a dilemma. The top 2 Tories in the SE are Dan Hannan (whom I can’t abide) and Nirj Diva (whom I can’t take seriously). I will never vote for another party so the choices are not bothering at all, spoiling the ballot, or tightly holding the nose and put the X in the usual place.



    The usual place for the Conservatives (based on 2014) is third on the list, so you can put your X in the usual place and register a vote for the Greens with a clear conscience.

    Nice one but I’d rather shack up with Nancy Mogg (ooh, er missus) than harbour even the most evanescent thought of ever voting for that obscurantist authoritarian mob. I’m at one with Mr Smithson snr on that.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    > @Alanbrooke said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    > > > @Alanbrooke said:
    > > > France heading for a referendum on Macrons plan to privatise Aeroports de Paris
    > > >
    > >
    > > Tell Sid.
    >
    > I suspect Sid currently works at Orly and wears a yellow vest at weekends

    Nah, Sid sold his shares the day British Gas was privatised and put the proceeds towards a holiday in 1987 in the Algarve instead of the usual Torremolinos. He retired to Southend in 2002 and is now in a care home.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @ralphmalph said:
    > > Sky reporting no CHUK-TIG candidate for Peterborough,
    > >
    > > They could not even find an old retread to stand for them, oh dear.
    >
    > Yes but it helps to consolidate the anti Farage vote

    I think that summarises Change's problem; we all know what they're against but not what they stand in favour of.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > I'm confused. Is it no "Change UK" candidate, or is it "No-Change UK" candidate?
    >
    > They should just pull out of the Euros too. A one-trick pony without the trick.

    But plenty of donkeys.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    > @JohnO said:
    > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.
    >
    >
    >
    > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.
    >
    >
    >
    > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain
    >
    > I’m in a bit of a dilemma. The top 2 Tories in the SE are Dan Hannan (whom I can’t abide) and Nirj Diva (whom I can’t take seriously). I will never vote for another party so the choices are not bothering at all, spoiling the ballot, or tightly holding the nose and put the X in the usual place.

    It’s a difficult one. In these circumstances, it’s necessary to reduce it to the simplest question, who do you want to be your MEP. If you dislike Hannan don’t vote for him, there will be plenty of other opportunities to vote Tory.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,870
    > @TudorRose said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > @ralphmalph said:
    > > > Sky reporting no CHUK-TIG candidate for Peterborough,
    > > >
    > > > They could not even find an old retread to stand for them, oh dear.
    > >
    > > Yes but it helps to consolidate the anti Farage vote
    >
    > I think that summarises Change's problem; we all know what they're against but not what they stand in favour of.

    And now we'll never know. Oh well.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Jonathan said:
    Do you think May and Williamson's relationship is frozen? Or have they just chopped each other off?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Jonathan said:
    That's not the word I would use... :)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    > @ExiledInScotland said:
    > > @Alanbrooke said:
    > > > @williamglenn said:
    > > > > @Alanbrooke said:
    > > > > France heading for a referendum on Macrons plan to privatise Aeroports de Paris
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > Tell Sid.
    > >
    > > I suspect Sid currently works at Orly and wears a yellow vest at weekends
    >
    > He'll be Monsieur Sid Bertillon, who followed his Grandpa Jean and Dad Philippe into a job there. His uncle Alain is a policeman in the CRS and his aunt Marie-Claude is a teacher and local councillor for the Rassemblement National.

    Ah, the state of Le Francais d'Aujourd hui.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    > @isam said:
    > > @TGOHF said:
    >
    > > Joke party
    >
    > >
    >
    > > https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1126521821959004162
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > That really is pathetic. I wonder if those who signed up fully appreciated that they were time limiting their political careers to the end of this Parliament.
    >
    > What an exciting, radical bunch they are! Breath of fresh air compared to the ‘old politics’ of standing for election

    The CUKs have decided it'd be much more exciting to stand by the side and watch their voters vote for somebody else
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Chances are (of course) that I will turn up and will vote Tory. But I have pretty well reached the stage of not caring: Theresa May’s utterly useless and clueless incompetence has sucked the lifeblood from the party and this 45 plus years activist. I just want her gone. If that means Johnson or Raab, a lurch to No Deal and an early general election, let it be. David L is absolutely right - we cannot go on like this for a moment longer.

    I do accept the irony that not voting will accelerate her political demise. Hmmm.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @ydoethur said:
    > it would have been counter productive for a remain alliance to stand in Peterborough as it would have greatly increased the chances of the Brexit Party getting a real breakthrough. Hence why the remain candidate pulled out probably.
    >
    > You would have to see this as good news for Labour. With The Faragistas unabashedly pitching for Tory votes and the threat from a United Remain front gone, they have to be hot favourites to hold the seat.
    >
    > That being said:https://twitter.com/katyballs/status/1126522469538586624
    >
    >
    >
    > If Labour's dismal performance last Thursday wasn't due to Brexit, and they were unable to exploit for electoral advantage a government in this much chaos - doesn't that suggest matters are far worse for them than we thought? I mean, Brexit will be over one way or another in a few months. But if they have then nothing to talk about - oh dear oh dear.
    >
    > If Labour lose Peterborough - to anybody - then Corbyn has to go, somehow. Even if the only way of doing it is for every member of the PLP with an IQ of above 5 (other than Macdonnell) to defect to the Liberal Democrats.

    If Labour lose Peterborough, it'll be someone else's fault. Not Corbyn's.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    Evening all
    It is all very well having a true Brexiteer as the next PM but I fail to see what any of them can actually achieve. Moving to a no deal position would surely see the government no confidenced. The EU has said the deal is as good as we are going to get unless we move to a softer Brexit so I can’t see a Brexiteer achieving a radically different deal as the one that is on the table now.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited May 2019
    https://www.peoples-vote.uk/a_customs_union_deal_on_brexit_would_cause_deeper_damage_to_both_conservatives_and_labour_new_poll

    The Peoples Vote are laying into the Labour Customs Union plan with gusto. Both with voters acceptance of it and an economic analysis of the costs of being in a CU by the NIESR.

    EU polling at bottom plus link to tables.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492

    Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.



    We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.



    My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain

    And yet you continue to equivocate over whether you should support “(your) party” or not, which seems to rather coincidentally correlate with how well it’s doing and how it’s perceived.

    I think RoyalBlue had you bang to rights when he described you as a Fair Weather Friend. The contrast with JohnO, a true loyalist, who is still a man very much of his own views and mind, is stark.

    I wouldn’t want you anywhere near me in the trenches. You are just a slightly more level-headed and polite version of Bob Sykes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684
    JohnO said:

    Chances are (of course) that I will turn up and will vote Tory. But I have pretty well reached the stage of not caring: Theresa May’s utterly useless and clueless incompetence has sucked the lifeblood from the party and this 45 plus years activist. I just want her gone. If that means Johnson or Raab, a lurch to No Deal and an early general election, let it be. David L is absolutely right - we cannot go on like this for a moment longer.

    I do accept the irony that not voting will accelerate her political demise. Hmmm.

    Blimey, if the Tory party cannot rely on you voting for them then I'm going to win my bet on the Tories polling sub 10%.

    I still maintain PM Boris will do a lot worse than Mrs May.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492
    JohnO said:

    > @JohnO said:

    >

    > I’m in a bit of a dilemma. The top 2 Tories in the SE are Dan Hannan (whom I can’t abide) and Nirj Diva (whom I can’t take seriously). I will never vote for another party so the choices are not bothering at all, spoiling the ballot, or tightly holding the nose and put the X in the usual place.



    The usual place for the Conservatives (based on 2014) is third on the list, so you can put your X in the usual place and register a vote for the Greens with a clear conscience.

    Nice one but I’d rather shack up with Nancy Mogg (ooh, er missus) than harbour even the most evanescent thought of ever voting for that obscurantist authoritarian mob. I’m at one with Mr Smithson snr on that.
    I think Smithson Junior uses even stronger language.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684

    JohnO said:

    > @JohnO said:

    >

    > I’m in a bit of a dilemma. The top 2 Tories in the SE are Dan Hannan (whom I can’t abide) and Nirj Diva (whom I can’t take seriously). I will never vote for another party so the choices are not bothering at all, spoiling the ballot, or tightly holding the nose and put the X in the usual place.



    The usual place for the Conservatives (based on 2014) is third on the list, so you can put your X in the usual place and register a vote for the Greens with a clear conscience.

    Nice one but I’d rather shack up with Nancy Mogg (ooh, er missus) than harbour even the most evanescent thought of ever voting for that obscurantist authoritarian mob. I’m at one with Mr Smithson snr on that.
    I think Smithson Junior uses even stronger language.
    I'd sooner vote for Mark Reckless than the Greens, bloody watermelons.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492
    JohnO said:

    Chances are (of course) that I will turn up and will vote Tory. But I have pretty well reached the stage of not caring: Theresa May’s utterly useless and clueless incompetence has sucked the lifeblood from the party and this 45 plus years activist. I just want her gone. If that means Johnson or Raab, a lurch to No Deal and an early general election, let it be. David L is absolutely right - we cannot go on like this for a moment longer.

    I do accept the irony that not voting will accelerate her political demise. Hmmm.

    I feel much the same way.

    I will either vote Tory, or just write “FARCE” across the ballot paper.

    FWIW, I’ve gone off Dan Hannan too and Nirj is a nice guy but a real eccentric I can’t take seriously either.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,573

    > @isam said:

    > > @TGOHF said:

    >

    > > Joke party

    >

    > >

    >

    > >



    >

    >

    >

    >

    >

    > That really is pathetic. I wonder if those who signed up fully appreciated that they were time limiting their political careers to the end of this Parliament.

    >

    > What an exciting, radical bunch they are! Breath of fresh air compared to the ‘old politics’ of standing for election



    The CUKs have decided it'd be much more exciting to stand by the side and watch their voters vote for somebody else
    CUK is, as Churchill said of Alfred Bossom, neither one thing nor the other, and is occupying ground which is both heavily tenanted by LDs, centrist Tories and centrist Labour and also splendidly vague. It makes the SDPs effort look pretty streamlined by comparison. Could it be that the only option for a new party with a chance of real clout will be if a very large number of moderates join the LDs. At the moment I don't see it, and in our system Labour and Tory can continue taking turns to cobble a government together with a minority or a coalition for the foreseeable future.

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    > @chloe said:
    > Evening all
    > It is all very well having a true Brexiteer as the next PM but I fail to see what any of them can actually achieve. Moving to a no deal position would surely see the government no confidenced. The EU has said the deal is as good as we are going to get unless we move to a softer Brexit so I can’t see a Brexiteer achieving a radically different deal as the one that is on the table now.

    That is all true.

    But, the messenger matters.

    If the message is covered by e.g., Raab rather than e.g., May, it may finally penetrate the thick skulls of the ERG.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492

    JohnO said:

    > @JohnO said:

    >

    > I’m in a bit of a dilemma. The top 2 Tories in the SE are Dan Hannan (whom I can’t abide) and Nirj Diva (whom I can’t take seriously). I will never vote for another party so the choices are not bothering at all, spoiling the ballot, or tightly holding the nose and put the X in the usual place.



    The usual place for the Conservatives (based on 2014) is third on the list, so you can put your X in the usual place and register a vote for the Greens with a clear conscience.

    Nice one but I’d rather shack up with Nancy Mogg (ooh, er missus) than harbour even the most evanescent thought of ever voting for that obscurantist authoritarian mob. I’m at one with Mr Smithson snr on that.
    I think Smithson Junior uses even stronger language.
    I'd sooner vote for Mark Reckless than the Greens, bloody watermelons.
    If the Greens were serious about the planet and nation going green they’d be far more politically friendly in co-opting natural Conservatives and those on the centre-right who are natural conservationists and care about the environment.

    In reality, they’d rather use it as a Trojan horse for ecosocialism and communitarianism, so their Green agenda suffers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    I will either vote Tory, or just write “FARCE” across the ballot paper.

    There's one letter too many there... :smile:
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    I sometimes get the impression that too many of the Remainer parties and politicians are still wanting to take up time positioning all their pieces on the board in advance of the final match-up despite the fact that the game is effectively in overtime and should actually have been done and dusted some time ago now (ok, I've mixed some sporting metaphors there).

    On that side there appear to be only people with philosophies of "well we can't do this now, we have to wait" or "it's not time yet for that" - you have to wonder if not now then when?

    It doesn't appear to matter how much extra time they get, they still contrive to make their moves too late.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814
    edited May 2019
    > @chloe said:
    > Evening all
    > It is all very well having a true Brexiteer as the next PM but I fail to see what any of them can actually achieve. Moving to a no deal position would surely see the government no confidenced. The EU has said the deal is as good as we are going to get unless we move to a softer Brexit so I can’t see a Brexiteer achieving a radically different deal as the one that is on the table now.

    At least if that happens we can bring it to a head and have an election where either Corbyn wins or someone wins a mandate to do something a bit more concrete when it comes to Brexit. This febrile atmosphere is doing no-one any good.

    And yes I think Corbyn is likely to be utterly useless and deeply divisive as a PM but I can see the advantages of a Labour majority government at the moment than this ridiculous show.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    > @ydoethur said:
    > I will either vote Tory, or just write “FARCE” across the ballot paper.
    >
    > There's one letter too many there... :smile:

    Are the FARC standing?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,712

    Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.



    We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.



    My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain

    And yet you continue to equivocate over whether you should support “(your) party” or not, which seems to rather coincidentally correlate with how well it’s doing and how it’s perceived.

    I think RoyalBlue had you bang to rights when he described you as a Fair Weather Friend. The contrast with JohnO, a true loyalist, who is still a man very much of his own views and mind, is stark.

    I wouldn’t want you anywhere near me in the trenches. You are just a slightly more level-headed and polite version of Bob Sykes.
    Ouch CR, that's just plain nasty.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,135
    > @ralphmalph said:
    > https://www.peoples-vote.uk/a_customs_union_deal_on_brexit_would_cause_deeper_damage_to_both_conservatives_and_labour_new_poll
    >
    > The Peoples Vote are laying into the Labour Customs Union plan with gusto. Both with voters acceptance of it and an economic analysis of the costs of being in a CU by the NIESR.
    >
    > EU polling at bottom plus link to tables.

    Of course they are. They want to stop brexit
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.



    We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.



    My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain

    And yet you continue to equivocate over whether you should support “(your) party” or not, which seems to rather coincidentally correlate with how well it’s doing and how it’s perceived.

    I think RoyalBlue had you bang to rights when he described you as a Fair Weather Friend. The contrast with JohnO, a true loyalist, who is still a man very much of his own views and mind, is stark.

    I wouldn’t want you anywhere near me in the trenches. You are just a slightly more level-headed and polite version of Bob Sykes.
    Is there some kind of irony there that I'm missing? There might be, given that I don't know who Bob Sykes is (and no one of that name on google looks like a good fit), but taken at face value that is the most batshit crazy post this site has ever seen.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    > @numbertwelve said:
    > > @chloe said:
    > > Evening all
    > > It is all very well having a true Brexiteer as the next PM but I fail to see what any of them can actually achieve. Moving to a no deal position would surely see the government no confidenced. The EU has said the deal is as good as we are going to get unless we move to a softer Brexit so I can’t see a Brexiteer achieving a radically different deal as the one that is on the table now.
    >
    > At least if that happens we can bring it to a head and have an election where either Corbyn wins or someone wins a mandate to do something a bit more concrete when it comes to Brexit. This febrile atmosphere is doing no-one any good.
    >
    > And yes I think Corbyn is likely to be utterly useless and deeply divisive as a PM but I can see the advantages of a Labour majority government at the moment than this ridiculous show.

    That’s true, we need this over one way or another. We need to move on to other policy areas.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Are the FARC standing?

    I doubt it, I was assuming they would support Corbyn.

    Maybe we should just Es off on the puns if people are getting confused.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    > @Stereotomy said:
    > > @isam said:
    > > > @TGOHF said:
    > >
    > > > Joke party
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1126521821959004162
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > That really is pathetic. I wonder if those who signed up fully appreciated that they were time limiting their political careers to the end of this Parliament.
    > >
    > > What an exciting, radical bunch they are! Breath of fresh air compared to the ‘old politics’ of standing for election
    >
    > The CUKs have decided it'd be much more exciting to stand by the side and watch their voters vote for somebody else

    CUK are standing in the European Parliament elections, there is little point them standing in 60% Leave Peterborough
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,135
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.
    >
    >
    >
    > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.
    >
    >
    >
    > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain
    >
    > And yet you continue to equivocate over whether you should support “(your) party” or not, which seems to rather coincidentally correlate with how well it’s doing and how it’s perceived.
    >
    > I think RoyalBlue had you bang to rights when he described you as a Fair Weather Friend. The contrast with JohnO, a true loyalist, who is still a man very much of his own views and mind, is stark.
    >
    > I wouldn’t want you anywhere near me in the trenches. You are just a slightly more level-headed and polite version of Bob Sykes.

    You are unnecessarily objectionable.

    Many people are conflicted but I have confirmed I will vote for my party which I have given nearly 60 years of service to. There are times when you doubt your loyalty as on the two occasions I voted for Blair but they are the only occasions I have not voted conservative in my life time. At that time I was not a member of the party, but I had fought election campaigns for them in the 70s and 80s both wining and losing
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @williamglenn said:
    > > @ydoethur said:
    > > I will either vote Tory, or just write “FARCE” across the ballot paper.
    > >
    > > There's one letter too many there... :smile:
    >
    > Are the FARC standing?

    Not if Chuka's got anything to do with it.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited May 2019
    15 candidates are standing in the Peterborough by election - no ChUK but the English Dems, SDP, Loonies, UKEUP, Common good, Christian people’s alliance, Renew and UKIP as well as the five main parties are running.

    https://pcc-live.storage.googleapis.com/upload/www.peterborough.gov.uk/council/elections/ParliamentaryElectionForPeterborough-StatementOfPersonsNominated-May2019.pdf?inline=true
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    HYUFD said:

    CUK are standing in the European Parliament elections, there is little point them standing in 60% Leave Peterborough

    Surely it would stop them looking like a bunch of - well, cuks?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited May 2019
    brendan16 said:

    15 candidates are standing in the Peterborough by election.

    www.peterborough.gov.uk/council/elections/ParliamentaryElectionForPeterborough-StatementOfPersonsNominated-May2019.pdf?inline=true

    Doesn't work, try this:

    https://pcc-live.storage.googleapis.com/upload/www.peterborough.gov.uk/council/elections/ParliamentaryElectionForPeterborough-StatementOfPersonsNominated-May2019.pdf?inline=true

    Edit - I see you beat me to it!

    Some right fringe candidates in there. Even the Monster Raving Loonies have put up a candidate, which seems a pointless effort right now frankly.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    brendan16 said:

    15 candidates are standing in the Peterborough by election - no ChUK but the English Dems, SDP, Loonies, UKEUP and UKIP as well as the five main parties are running.

    https://pcc-live.storage.googleapis.com/upload/www.peterborough.gov.uk/council/elections/ParliamentaryElectionForPeterborough-StatementOfPersonsNominated-May2019.pdf?inline=true

    OMG WHY IS THERE NO HARRY ROGERS?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    > > > @ydoethur said:
    > > > I will either vote Tory, or just write “FARCE” across the ballot paper.
    > > >
    > > > There's one letter too many there... :smile:
    > >
    > > Are the FARC standing?
    >
    > Not if Chuka's got anything to do with it.

    Someone should stand as a Literal Democrat, dedicated to implementing the referendum result...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    kyf_100 said:


    Someone should stand as a Literal Democrat, dedicated to implementing the referendum result...

    Or perhaps May should found a new party with Boris as Illiberal Democrats? Just to troll Corbyn...
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    > @ydoethur said:
    > 15 candidates are standing in the Peterborough by election.
    >
    > www.peterborough.gov.uk/council/elections/ParliamentaryElectionForPeterborough-StatementOfPersonsNominated-May2019.pdf?inline=true
    >
    > Doesn't work, try this:
    >
    > https://pcc-live.storage.googleapis.com/upload/www.peterborough.gov.uk/council/elections/ParliamentaryElectionForPeterborough-StatementOfPersonsNominated-May2019.pdf?inline=true
    >
    > Edit - I see you beat me to it!
    >
    > Some right fringe candidates in there. Even the Monster Raving Loonies have put up a candidate, which seems a pointless effort right now frankly.

    They are standing as the 'grown up' candidate.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does anyone know why the BBC4 news at 7pm, which used to be called simply "World News", is now known as "Beyond 100 Days"?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    > @AndyJS said:
    > Does anyone know why the BBC4 news at 7pm, which used to be called simply "World News", is now known as "Beyond 100 Days"?

    It's because they had a programme called 'the first 100 days' to record their hatred of Trump. Now it's 'beyond 100 days'.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492

    Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.



    We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.



    My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain

    And yet you continue to equivocate over whether you should support “(your) party” or not, which seems to rather coincidentally correlate with how well it’s doing and how it’s perceived.

    I think RoyalBlue had you bang to rights when he described you as a Fair Weather Friend. The contrast with JohnO, a true loyalist, who is still a man very much of his own views and mind, is stark.

    I wouldn’t want you anywhere near me in the trenches. You are just a slightly more level-headed and polite version of Bob Sykes.
    Ouch CR, that's just plain nasty.
    Nothing nasty about it. I call it as I see it and it’s fair comment. We’re all adults here.

    It’s fine to consider yourself a floating voter. It’s fine to call yourself a centrist who sometimes (or usually) votes Tory, as DavidL does.

    But, it really grates to genuflect as a true party loyalist, criticising those who are not as not representing “my party”, whilst openly admitting voting Blair twice at the height of his powers and a strong desire to vote Lib Dem now.

    Sorry, but there it is. And I stand by it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @TudorRose said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > Does anyone know why the BBC4 news at 7pm, which used to be called simply "World News", is now known as "Beyond 100 Days"?
    >
    > It's because they had a programme called 'the first 100 days' to record their hatred of Trump. Now it's 'beyond 100 days'.....

    Thanks. Seems a bit ridiculous to use that as the name of a news programme 3 years after Trump was elected.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.



    We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.



    My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain

    And yet you continue to equivocate over whether you should support “(your) party” or not, which seems to rather coincidentally correlate with how well it’s doing and how it’s perceived.

    I think RoyalBlue had you bang to rights when he described you as a Fair Weather Friend. The contrast with JohnO, a true loyalist, who is still a man very much of his own views and mind, is stark.

    I wouldn’t want you anywhere near me in the trenches. You are just a slightly more level-headed and polite version of Bob Sykes.
    Is there some kind of irony there that I'm missing? There might be, given that I don't know who Bob Sykes is (and no one of that name on google looks like a good fit), but taken at face value that is the most batshit crazy post this site has ever seen.

    You’ve got one heck of a crazy “crazy” filter if you think that to be the case.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know why the BBC4 news at 7pm, which used to be called simply "World News", is now known as "Beyond 100 Days"?

    I think it’s something to do with after a politicians first 100 days - but thought it was an occasional show not regular news?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,135
    > @AndyJS said:
    > Does anyone know why the BBC4 news at 7pm, which used to be called simply "World News", is now known as "Beyond 100 Days"?

    It is a nonsense programme being co-hosted from Washington with anti Trump journalists involving themselves in UK politics and mainly talking rubbish. It started as a judgment on Trump' s first 100 days but has continued as a joint US UK BBC slanted news programme

    I reject everything Trump stands for but this programme is absurd
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Charles said:
    > Does anyone know why the BBC4 news at 7pm, which used to be called simply "World News", is now known as "Beyond 100 Days"?
    >
    > I think it’s something to do with after a politicians first 100 days - but thought it was an occasional show not regular news?

    No I think it's a regular show. TudorRose below has explained the name: it's a reference to Trump.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    After a European elections mailshot from the Tories yesterday saying 'Vote Conservative to get a Brexit Deal' I have had one from Labour today saying 'Labour will bring our Country together'
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @ralphmalph said:
    > > https://www.peoples-vote.uk/a_customs_union_deal_on_brexit_would_cause_deeper_damage_to_both_conservatives_and_labour_new_poll
    > >
    > > The Peoples Vote are laying into the Labour Customs Union plan with gusto. Both with voters acceptance of it and an economic analysis of the costs of being in a CU by the NIESR.
    > >
    > > EU polling at bottom plus link to tables.
    >
    > Of course they are. They want to stop brexit

    I’m as pro EU as you can get but think the CU plan is terrible . There’s no way the EU are going to allow a non member any say in trade deals . It still doesn’t solve the border issue and will just allow Eurosceptics the chance to keep scapegoating the EU.

    The CU plan is a desperate attempt by Labour to avoid dealing with freedom of movement so they’ve come up with this. If you’re going to try to stay in one thing it should have been the single market . Labour should have made the case for enforcing current rules , adding a register and increased funding for areas impacted by higher migration instead they capitulated and followed the Tories line .
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,135
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.
    >
    >
    >
    > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.
    >
    >
    >
    > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain
    >
    > And yet you continue to equivocate over whether you should support “(your) party” or not, which seems to rather coincidentally correlate with how well it’s doing and how it’s perceived.
    >
    > I think RoyalBlue had you bang to rights when he described you as a Fair Weather Friend. The contrast with JohnO, a true loyalist, who is still a man very much of his own views and mind, is stark.
    >
    > I wouldn’t want you anywhere near me in the trenches. You are just a slightly more level-headed and polite version of Bob Sykes.
    >
    > Is there some kind of irony there that I'm missing? There might be, given that I don't know who Bob Sykes is (and no one of that name on google looks like a good fit), but taken at face value that is the most batshit crazy post this site has ever seen.
    >
    >
    > You’ve got one heck of a crazy “crazy” filter if you think that to be the case.

    It was simply unfair and unnecessary. Ask either of our two local conservative mps or our local conservative AMs and see how much they appreciate my membership and work over decades
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > Does anyone know why the BBC4 news at 7pm, which used to be called simply "World News", is now known as "Beyond 100 Days"?
    >
    > It is a nonsense programme being co-hosted from Washington with anti Trump journalists involving themselves in UK politics and mainly talking rubbish. It started as a judgment on Trump' s first 100 days but has continued as a joint US UK BBC slanted news programme
    >
    > I reject everything Trump stands for but this programme is absurd

    Yes it's the sort of thing that actually increases support for Trump in some quarters. Completely counterproductive. Especially with another election only 18 months away. They should focus on the future, not the past.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/minefornothing/status/1126473369610625024?s=20

    So 71% *DON'T* support no-deal Brexit then
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > If the Greens were serious about the planet and nation going green they’d be far more politically friendly in co-opting natural Conservatives and those on the centre-right who are natural conservationists and care about the environment.
    >
    > In reality, they’d rather use it as a Trojan horse for ecosocialism and communitarianism, so their Green agenda suffers.

    There have been attempts by some to come up with right-wing friendly policy approaches to Green issues over the decades, but generally the right has become very hostile to the environment and so such attempts have foundered.

    Even Cameron, who started out with greenwashing rhetoric such as "vote blue, go green" ended up telling people to "cut the green crap".

    It's for those on the right to demonstrate they take environmental issues seriously, not for greens to do that work for them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492

    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.

    >

    >

    >

    > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.

    >

    >

    >

    > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain

    >

    > And yet you continue to equivocate over whether you should support “(your) party” or not, which seems to rather coincidentally correlate with how well it’s doing and how it’s perceived.

    >

    > I think RoyalBlue had you bang to rights when he described you as a Fair Weather Friend. The contrast with JohnO, a true loyalist, who is still a man very much of his own views and mind, is stark.

    >

    > I wouldn’t want you anywhere near me in the trenches. You are just a slightly more level-headed and polite version of Bob Sykes.

    >

    > Is there some kind of irony there that I'm missing? There might be, given that I don't know who Bob Sykes is (and no one of that name on google looks like a good fit), but taken at face value that is the most batshit crazy post this site has ever seen.

    >

    >

    > You’ve got one heck of a crazy “crazy” filter if you think that to be the case.



    It was simply unfair and unnecessary. Ask either of our two local conservative mps or our local conservative AMs and see how much they appreciate my membership and work over decades

    And yet, by your own admission, you haven’t supported your own party on several occasions and can’t be considered to be reliable.

    So I do consider it fair. Your appeals and calls for party loyalty need to be considered in that light.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,573
    edited May 2019
    HYUFD said:

    A result like that is not going to clarify much. Pretty much a score draw with regard to Brexit v Remain. Which I think is what we are going to get.

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @Stereotomy said:
    > > > @isam said:
    > > > > @TGOHF said:
    > > >
    > > > > Joke party
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > > https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1126521821959004162
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > That really is pathetic. I wonder if those who signed up fully appreciated that they were time limiting their political careers to the end of this Parliament.
    > > >
    > > > What an exciting, radical bunch they are! Breath of fresh air compared to the ‘old politics’ of standing for election
    > >
    > > The CUKs have decided it'd be much more exciting to stand by the side and watch their voters vote for somebody else
    >
    > CUK are standing in the European Parliament elections, there is little point them standing in 60% Leave Peterborough

    ------------
    IIRC ChUK claimed to have had hundreds of applications from prospective MEPs. If they cannot persuade even one of them to stand for Peterborough they can hardly claim to be a serious political force.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > https://twitter.com/katyballs/status/1126522469538586624

    Were they the same people who did the antisemitism analysis of the Labour party?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > Does anyone know why the BBC4 news at 7pm, which used to be called simply "World News", is now known as "Beyond 100 Days"?
    >
    > It is a nonsense programme being co-hosted from Washington with anti Trump journalists involving themselves in UK politics and mainly talking rubbish. It started as a judgment on Trump' s first 100 days but has continued as a joint US UK BBC slanted news programme
    >
    > I reject everything Trump stands for but this programme is absurd

    Trump derangement syndrome. CNN is no longer a news network, watching you would be hard pressed to learn about what is going on in the world beyond any story that doesn't directly involve Trump.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    > @algarkirk said:
    > https://twitter.com/minefornothing/status/1126473369610625024
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > A result like that is not going to clarify much. Pretty much a score draw with regard to Brexit v Remain. Which I think is what we are going to get.

    Nonetheless, there are some interesting truths here.

    Twice as many people are willing to sign on the Farage dotted line as willing to vote Conservative.

    And twice as many people are willing to put their X next to the name of known bigots, xenophobes and rape apologists as vote CUK.

    What does that tell you about CON and CUK?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,135
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    >
    > > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain
    >
    > >
    >
    > > And yet you continue to equivocate over whether you should support “(your) party” or not, which seems to rather coincidentally correlate with how well it’s doing and how it’s perceived.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > I think RoyalBlue had you bang to rights when he described you as a Fair Weather Friend. The contrast with JohnO, a true loyalist, who is still a man very much of his own views and mind, is stark.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > I wouldn’t want you anywhere near me in the trenches. You are just a slightly more level-headed and polite version of Bob Sykes.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Is there some kind of irony there that I'm missing? There might be, given that I don't know who Bob Sykes is (and no one of that name on google looks like a good fit), but taken at face value that is the most batshit crazy post this site has ever seen.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > You’ve got one heck of a crazy “crazy” filter if you think that to be the case.
    >
    >
    >
    > It was simply unfair and unnecessary. Ask either of our two local conservative mps or our local conservative AMs and see how much they appreciate my membership and work over decades
    >
    > And yet, by your own admission, you haven’t supported your own party on several occasions and can’t be considered to be reliable.
    >
    > So I do consider it fair. Your appeals and calls for party loyalty need to be considered in that light.

    I am too polite to respond to your judgment.

    Are you going to attack each and every conservative who votes for the brexit party in the Euros

    And in any case I am not going to engage any further in your nonsense
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @algarkirk said:
    > https://twitter.com/minefornothing/status/1126473369610625024
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > A result like that is not going to clarify much. Pretty much a score draw with regard to Brexit v Remain. Which I think is what we are going to get.

    Is there a betting market for third? Surely worth a punt on the LDs
  • > @AndyJS said:
    > Does anyone know why the BBC4 news at 7pm, which used to be called simply "World News", is now known as "Beyond 100 Days"?

    It was something to do with Trump, back in the days when the Beeb (and everyone else ) thought he wouldn't last.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    A result like that is not going to clarify much. Pretty much a score draw with regard to Brexit v Remain. Which I think is what we are going to get.

    CUK on 2% would clarify that their strategy of usurping the Lib Dems has failed. They’d either need to join them or seriously rethink their USP.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,573
    CatMan said:

    > @HYUFD said:

    >





    So 71% *DON'T* support no-deal Brexit then
    No Deal Brexit isn't going to happen. All parties have rhetorical postures, and some parties (Tory and Labour) have several. The issue is Brexit (all versions) v Remain.(all versions). Loads of people will vote Brexit to make a Brexit point, not a No Deal point. This is just as rational as a vote for Lab or Tory, where in both cases you have literally no idea what you will be actually voting for.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    > @CatMan said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > https://twitter.com/minefornothing/status/1126473369610625024?s=20
    >
    > So 71% *DON'T* support no-deal Brexit then

    24% remain
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492

    > @Casino_Royale said:



    > If the Greens were serious about the planet and nation going green they’d be far more politically friendly in co-opting natural Conservatives and those on the centre-right who are natural conservationists and care about the environment.

    >

    > In reality, they’d rather use it as a Trojan horse for ecosocialism and communitarianism, so their Green agenda suffers.



    There have been attempts by some to come up with right-wing friendly policy approaches to Green issues over the decades, but generally the right has become very hostile to the environment and so such attempts have foundered.



    Even Cameron, who started out with greenwashing rhetoric such as "vote blue, go green" ended up telling people to "cut the green crap".



    It's for those on the right to demonstrate they take environmental issues seriously, not for greens to do that work for them.

    The Greens process to be the party that puts the environment and the planet at the heart of their politics.

    That being the case they should be willing to reach out to both right and left and show flexibility and willingness to build the broadest possible coalition to achieve those aims as quickly as possible. What policy they do each should be evidence based.

    In reality, they are far more interested in attacking the Tories over capitalism and identity politics than that, so they consistently underperform in delivering on what they claim to say they do on the tin.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Facebook 'auto-generated' extremist video

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-48217827

    Seems like those really annoying "remember your last year" highlight videos that Facebook creates have been turning out best of ISIS vids.
  • > @algarkirk said:
    > https://twitter.com/minefornothing/status/1126473369610625024
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > A result like that is not going to clarify much. Pretty much a score draw with regard to Brexit v Remain. Which I think is what we are going to get.

    33% Full On Brexit
    26% Customs Union Brexit
    14% May's Brexit
    20% remain
    7% unaccounted for - probably Break Up the UK voters.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.
    >
    >
    >
    > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.
    >
    >
    >
    > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain
    >
    > And yet you continue to equivocate over whether you should support “(your) party” or not, which seems to rather coincidentally correlate with how well it’s doing and how it’s perceived.
    >
    > I think RoyalBlue had you bang to rights when he described you as a Fair Weather Friend. The contrast with JohnO, a true loyalist, who is still a man very much of his own views and mind, is stark.
    >
    > I wouldn’t want you anywhere near me in the trenches. You are just a slightly more level-headed and polite version of Bob Sykes.
    >
    > Ouch CR, that's just plain nasty.
    >
    > Nothing nasty about it. I call it as I see it and it’s fair comment. We’re all adults here.
    >
    > It’s fine to consider yourself a floating voter. It’s fine to call yourself a centrist who sometimes (or usually) votes Tory, as DavidL does.
    >
    > But, it really grates to genuflect as a true party loyalist, criticising those who are not as not representing “my party”, whilst openly admitting voting Blair twice at the height of his powers and a strong desire to vote Lib Dem now.
    >
    > Sorry, but there it is. And I stand by it.

    The only reason to vote Tory in this election is if you are related to one of the candidates
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,573
    kyf_100 said:

    > @algarkirk said:

    >



    >

    >

    >

    >

    > A result like that is not going to clarify much. Pretty much a score draw with regard to Brexit v Remain. Which I think is what we are going to get.



    Nonetheless, there are some interesting truths here.



    Twice as many people are willing to sign on the Farage dotted line as willing to vote Conservative.



    And twice as many people are willing to put their X next to the name of known bigots, xenophobes and rape apologists as vote CUK.



    What does that tell you about CON and CUK?
    Largely agree. It tells me that if you vote Tory it cannot be clear what signal you are giving. If you wanted to vote CUK you might actually get more value out of voting LD

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Are you going to attack each and every conservative who votes for the brexit party in the Euros

    I'm willing to do that for £10 a time, and I can come up with lots of inventive invective.

    It would be nice to have as much money as J K Rowling and to do it by saying to the faces of Boris and Francois what everyone is saying behind their backs.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > @CatMan said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/minefornothing/status/1126473369610625024?s=20
    > >
    > > So 71% *DON'T* support no-deal Brexit then
    >
    > 24% remain

    20% Remain, unless you're including UKIP in there...
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/minefornothing/status/1126473369610625024?s=20

    Also a GE poll contained within the same Opinium data.

    Con 25.0%
    Lab 29.5%
    LD 10.7%
    UKIP 3.9%
    SNP 4.3%
    Plaid 1.1%
    Green 5.1%
    Brexit 17.5%
    Other 0.6%

    100% certain to vote only.

    Figures are from the same spreadsheet linked to for the Euro poll via wiki site

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1126519281808752640
    >
    >
    >
    > They won’t be discussing the weather.

    There's something of the Alan B'Stard about Williamson. It's quite endearing in a Tory
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    IanB2 said:

    The only reason to vote Tory in this election is if you are related to one of the candidates

    If you're married to an MP, they will screw you anyway. The rest of us have the option...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    > @algarkirk said:
    > https://twitter.com/minefornothing/status/1126473369610625024
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > A result like that is not going to clarify much. Pretty much a score draw with regard to Brexit v Remain. Which I think is what we are going to get.

    It will mean 0 CUK or UKIP seats and Greens look uncertain, depending on geographical distribution. That said, CUK does head the ballot paper - traditionally that's supposed to help (certainly in our local elections the split votes almost invariably went for the alphabetically first of the two candidates).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @brendan16 said:
    > 15 candidates are standing in the Peterborough by election - no ChUK but the English Dems, SDP, Loonies, UKEUP, Common good, Christian people’s alliance, Renew and UKIP as well as the five main parties are running.
    >
    > https://pcc-live.storage.googleapis.com/upload/www.peterborough.gov.uk/council/elections/ParliamentaryElectionForPeterborough-StatementOfPersonsNominated-May2019.pdf?inline=true

    However good the reason, the Labour candidate not revealing their local address looks shifty
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    > @ydoethur said:
    > Are you going to attack each and every conservative who votes for the brexit party in the Euros
    >
    > I'm willing to do that for £10 a time, and I can come up with lots of inventive invective.
    >
    > It would be nice to have as much money as J K Rowling and to do it by saying to the faces of Boris and Francois what everyone is saying behind their backs.

    Be positive. Spend your time praising previous Conservative voters who will still vote Conservative in the Euros. It will take up a lot less of your time.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    JohnO said:

    Chances are (of course) that I will turn up and will vote Tory. But I have pretty well reached the stage of not caring: Theresa May’s utterly useless and clueless incompetence has sucked the lifeblood from the party and this 45 plus years activist. I just want her gone. If that means Johnson or Raab, a lurch to No Deal and an early general election, let it be. David L is absolutely right - we cannot go on like this for a moment longer.

    I do accept the irony that not voting will accelerate her political demise. Hmmm.

    Conservatives still aren't near the ultimate humiliation stage of accepting every EU demand and crossing all of their red lines, which is likely to include ongoing payments, something that looks very like CFP, CAP, and FoM, actually a customs union, accepting all and every in scope future EU regulation long with CJEU oversight. This will happen whether it's May, Raab or Johnson.

    Leave is a minority in the UK now and almost all of that group are in denial about the realistic options available. I don't see a good outcome for your party.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    > @williamglenn said:
    > https://twitter.com/minefornothing/status/1126473369610625024
    >
    > A result like that is not going to clarify much. Pretty much a score draw with regard to Brexit v Remain. Which I think is what we are going to get.
    >
    > CUK on 2% would clarify that their strategy of usurping the Lib Dems has failed. They’d either need to join them or seriously rethink their USP.

    _____________________________________________________________________

    They seem more like the nucleus of a new One Nation Tory Party if they contain Dorrell, Johnson R and Soubry.

    There's a chasm between the Fysh-Bone wing and the Lib.Dems. The Fysh-Bone wing seems more in control of the Tories than when Thatcher won 40 years ago and began to force out the wets (like Heseltine).

    How right-wing are some of the ex-Labour MPs? Maybe they are One Nation Tories. If they're SDP, they might have been happier in Watson's group.

    I'd rather see total realignment and PR than this attempt to usurp existing parties. Electoral Calculus identifies *seven* 'political tribes', not 2-3.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @algarkirk said:
    > > https://twitter.com/minefornothing/status/1126473369610625024
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > A result like that is not going to clarify much. Pretty much a score draw with regard to Brexit v Remain. Which I think is what we are going to get.
    >
    > It will mean 0 CUK or UKIP seats and Greens look uncertain, depending on geographical distribution. That said, CUK does head the ballot paper - traditionally that's supposed to help (certainly in our local elections the split votes almost invariably went for the alphabetically first of the two candidates).

    Little sign of a LibDem surge there suggested by several commentators in recent days - beyond picking up support from CUK. Labour still looks the clear alternative to a Farage win really.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492

    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > > @Casino_Royale said:

    >

    > > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain

    >

    > >

    >

    > > .

    >

    > >

    >

    > > stark.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > I wouldn’t want you anywhere near me in the trenches. You are just a slightly more level-headed and polite version of Bob Sykes.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Ieen.

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > You’ve got one heck of a crazy “crazy” filter if you think that to be the case.

    >

    >

    >

    > Idecades

    >

    > And yet, by your own admission, you haven’t supported your own party on several occasions and can’t be considered to be reliable.

    >

    > So I do consider it fair. Your appeals and calls for party loyalty need to be considered in that light.



    I am too polite to respond to your judgment.



    Are you going to attack each and every conservative who votes for the brexit party in the Euros



    And in any case I am not going to engage any further in your nonsense

    There’s no need for you to engage with me. But I will continue to call you out whenever you make posts like this. When the going gets tough you wobble rather than stand your ground; I think social agreeability is a stronger driver for you.

    On politeness, that’s certainly a virtue but it’s not the only one, or even the overriding one.

    Integrity, honesty and dependability are others and I will challenge those who presume to use their longservice record as a high horse from which they criticise others when their own is very much in question.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019
    viewcode said:

    That’s not the actual poll, that’s an MRP model using poll data (WHY?).

    (Apologies if you already know this, but the other people in the class don't so it's worth repeating)

    MRP takes the responses to a poll, notes the characteristics of the people who responded (age, sex, location, etc), then from that it builds a model of the voting intention for many categories of people (so sixtysomething males in the Easy of England are 40% probable to vote Brexit, twentysomething women in London are 30% probable to vote LD, and so on). Since the number of people of each type is known for each constituency, you can apply the probabilities to those numbers and come up with an estimate of the vote.

    Since panel polls have large numbers of responses and statistical theory breaks down for self-selecting non-representative nonrandom panel responses, this modelling approach may be better than a conventional panel

    The unacknowledged problem is that it might not actually be better, or if it is then not consistently better. We haven't had much experience with them (for political purposes at least!) and the assumption that they are better is simply that, an assumption. I also point out that correct turnout assumptions will be vital for a good prediction, but God alone knows for certs what, say, the Brexit party turnout will be. So I'm worried... :(
    Sorry, to be clear my why? refers to the fact the specific benefit of MRP is better geographic granularity in predictions, allowing you to more accurately translate polling figures into seat share. The supposed benefit is not related to national vote share, for which it is until now untested. It looks like they were specifically trying to estimate seats for Gina Miller’s website, which makes a bit more sense, that’s why I mentioned it.

    When people say Yougov’s MRP did well in 2017 what they are talking about is the seat-level prediction and so being able to call no overall majority. It’s not about an accurate national share.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    If Labour don't get close to 25% in the European Elections, we'll have to start questioning whether polling in general is overstating them.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited May 2019
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited May 2019
    > @Wulfrun_Phil said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > https://twitter.com/minefornothing/status/1126473369610625024?s=20
    >
    > Also a GE poll contained within the same Opinium data.
    >
    > Con 25.0%
    > Lab 29.5%
    > LD 10.7%
    > UKIP 3.9%
    > SNP 4.3%
    > Plaid 1.1%
    > Green 5.1%
    > Brexit 17.5%
    > Other 0.6%
    >
    > 100% certain to vote only.
    >
    > Figures are from the same spreadsheet linked to for the Euro poll via wiki site
    >
    > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom

    Brexit Party even higher for a GE than the 15% they got with Yougov yesterday then.

    Electoral Calculus has the Brexit Party picking up 2 seats, Thurrock and the Isle of Wight and Labour 19 seats short of a majority

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=25&LAB=29.5&LIB=11&UKIP=4&Green=4&ChUK=3&Brexit=17&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Be positive. Spend your time praising previous Conservative voters who will still vote Conservative in the Euros. It will take up a lot less of your time.

    Yes, but it's not worthy doing just for fifty quid!
  • thecommissionerthecommissioner Posts: 165
    edited May 2019
    In the Comres poll (sample size >4000) the biggest beneficiaries from Labour defections are the BP.

    The three way split of "Remain" switchers leaves each of them individually worse off than the BP.

    Gut instinct is that the Remain moves from Labour are likely to be heavily concentrated in London especially.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,135
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    >
    > > > @Casino_Royale said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > .
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > stark.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > I wouldn’t want you anywhere near me in the trenches. You are just a slightly more level-headed and polite version of Bob Sykes.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > Ieen.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > You’ve got one heck of a crazy “crazy” filter if you think that to be the case.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Idecades
    >
    > >
    >
    > > And yet, by your own admission, you haven’t supported your own party on several occasions and can’t be considered to be reliable.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > So I do consider it fair. Your appeals and calls for party loyalty need to be considered in that light.
    >
    >
    >
    > I am too polite to respond to your judgment.
    >
    >
    >
    > Are you going to attack each and every conservative who votes for the brexit party in the Euros
    >
    >
    >
    > And in any case I am not going to engage any further in your nonsense
    >
    > There’s no need for you to engage with me. But I will continue to call you out whenever you make posts like this. When the going gets tough you wobble rather than stand your ground; I think social agreeability is a stronger driver for you.
    >
    > On politeness, that’s certainly a virtue but it’s not the only one, or even the overriding one.
    >
    > Integrity, honesty and dependability are others and I will challenge those who presume to use their longservice record as a high horse from which they criticise others when their own is very much in question.

    I am voting conservative in the EUs . Are you and are you going to attack the thousands of conservative members and activists who will vote for Farage in equal terms to your attack on me
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited May 2019
    Certain posters tonight are reminding me of General Peel, of whom Disraeli commented to Derby 'You will find him very reasonable on every subject until somebody mentions the words "household suffrage," whereat his eye lights up with insanity.'
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    > @FF43 said:
    > Chances are (of course) that I will turn up and will vote Tory. But I have pretty well reached the stage of not caring: Theresa May’s utterly useless and clueless incompetence has sucked the lifeblood from the party and this 45 plus years activist. I just want her gone. If that means Johnson or Raab, a lurch to No Deal and an early general election, let it be. David L is absolutely right - we cannot go on like this for a moment longer.
    >
    > I do accept the irony that not voting will accelerate her political demise. Hmmm.
    >
    > Conservatives still aren't near the ultimate humiliation stage of accepting every EU demand and crossing all of their red lines, which is likely to include ongoing payments, something that looks very like CFP, CAP, and FoM, actually a customs union, accepting all and every in scope future EU regulation long with CJEU oversight. This will happen whether it's May, Raab or Johnson.
    >
    > Leave is a minority in the UK now and almost all of that group are in denial about the realistic options available. I don't see a good outcome for your party.

    Why would the Conservatives accept such demands? The Backstop would be better.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I’m surprised Labour are polling that high for the EU elections.

    I would have expected to see a bigger shift to pro second vote parties .
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,737
    edited May 2019
    IanB2 said:

    > @brendan16 said:

    > 15 candidates are standing in the Peterborough by election - no ChUK but the English Dems, SDP, Loonies, UKEUP, Common good, Christian people’s alliance, Renew and UKIP as well as the five main parties are running.

    >

    > https://pcc-live.storage.googleapis.com/upload/www.peterborough.gov.uk/council/elections/ParliamentaryElectionForPeterborough-StatementOfPersonsNominated-May2019.pdf?inline=true



    However good the reason, the Labour candidate not revealing their local address looks shifty

    With the organised misogyny and threats that Jess Phillips amongst others has been subject to, that is just good sense.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I’m an Esther investor too. She might just take light.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited May 2019
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @FF43 said:
    > > Chances are (of course) that I will turn up and will vote Tory. But I have pretty well reached the stage of not caring: Theresa May’s utterly useless and clueless incompetence has sucked the lifeblood from the party and this 45 plus years activist. I just want her gone. If that means Johnson or Raab, a lurch to No Deal and an early general election, let it be. David L is absolutely right - we cannot go on like this for a moment longer.
    > >
    > > I do accept the irony that not voting will accelerate her political demise. Hmmm.
    > >
    > > Conservatives still aren't near the ultimate humiliation stage of accepting every EU demand and crossing all of their red lines, which is likely to include ongoing payments, something that looks very like CFP, CAP, and FoM, actually a customs union, accepting all and every in scope future EU regulation long with CJEU oversight. This will happen whether it's May, Raab or Johnson.
    > >
    > > Leave is a minority in the UK now and almost all of that group are in denial about the realistic options available. I don't see a good outcome for your party.
    >
    > Why would the Conservatives accept such demands? The Backstop would be better.

    I think if the Brexit Party win the European elections and Peterborough by election the Withdrawal Agreement will finally pass in June even without a Customs Union in the PD as 50 Labour MPs from Leave seats switch to back it in a panic about losing their seats
This discussion has been closed.