politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Esther McVey puts her hat into the ring for TMay’s successor

More candidates required

Excellent punt at 170-1.

McVey is far too normal. The members want someone ideological and pure. A gold plated headbanger.

It is hard to know with some of these contenders whether they are really running to be PM or whether they are just looking to raise their profile and get a plum cabinet job.

> @Alanbrooke said:
> RoI fights against the hard border by introducing passport checks
>
>
> https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/i-was-caught-completely-unaware-man-travelling-on-bus-from-belfast-to-dublin-says-he-was-asked-for-his-passport-on-the-border-38094805.html

If I recall correctly, the rules of the Common Travel Area allow for authorities to ask for your passport if they suspect you are not a British or Irish (or Jersey, etc) citizen.

But I must admit, I'm pretty surprised they'd ask on the bus.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1126506536384098305

> @rcs1000 said:
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @Alanbrooke said:
> > > RoI fights against the hard border by introducing passport checks
> > >
> > >
> > > https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/i-was-caught-completely-unaware-man-travelling-on-bus-from-belfast-to-dublin-says-he-was-asked-for-his-passport-on-the-border-38094805.html
> >
> > If I recall correctly, the rules of the Common Travel Area allow for authorities to ask for your passport if they suspect you are not a British or Irish (or Jersey, etc) citizen.
> >
> > But I must admit, I'm pretty surprised they'd ask on the bus.
>
> Although the story is even more curious: it was an Irishman who was asked, it was the police asking for passports (not immigration officials), it wasn't actually at the border, and I haven't heard any corroboration.
>
> So, I'm going to call "not yet" on the Irish government imposing passport checks at the border.

the legal situation is they carry them out for people not born in the UK and Ireland . There was a case a few years back of a Chinese student who was threathened with deportation as she had gone on a shopping trip to Belfast and he visa terms said she was to stay in the Republic.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1126506536384098305

1.16 to lay 🤔

I'd be surprised if that poll proved accurate. Be good for Labour, though.

Two local by-elections today. A Conservative defence in East Lothian and a Residents defence in Havering.

> @brokenwheel said:
> https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1126506536384098305
>
>
>
> That’s not the actual poll, that’s an MRP model using poll data (WHY?). The actual poll;
>
> Poll
> Con 14%
> Lab 26%
> BRX 28%
> LD 11%
> CHUK 8%
> UKIP 2%
> SNP/PC 4%
> Green 6%
> Other 1%
>
> https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/centrum-campaign-electoral-calculus-european-parliamentary-elections-poll-may-2019/

What's the difference between the two?

My postal ballot for the European elections arrived today. However so far I have only had election leaflets from the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party. What has happened to the others? On a related matter the Brexit leaflet has identified photographs of 8 candidates, including Farage - but none of them are standing in my region. Is this legal and what are the electoral expenses consequences?

Asking for a friend... what is MRP?

RobD said:

Asking for a friend... what is MRP?

Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification.

The polling methodology that allowed YouGov to predict a hung parliament in 2017.

Edit - Linky here. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works

McVey cracked and backed May's deal last time. Priti is still in the ideologically pure camp and should be a more appealing option for the ERG ultras.

> @Alanbrooke said:
> France heading for a referendum on Macrons plan to privatise Aeroports de Paris
>

Tell Sid.

> @williamglenn said:
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> > France heading for a referendum on Macrons plan to privatise Aeroports de Paris
> >
>
> Tell Sid.

I suspect Sid currently works at Orly and wears a yellow vest at weekends

> @anothernick said:
>
> A result like that would be a further setback for the leaver cause.

Why? Brexit plus tory plus UKIP =43% so only need 7 of Labour's 27% to get to a majority.

Can LD get the message out to those fed up with brexit that brexit negotiations are set to continue a long time unless large number vote lib dems? I am hoping and expecting them to at least beat tories.

Pro_Rata said:

> @RobD said:

> Asking for a friend... what is MRP?



Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification



Read here:



https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works



It is basically how YouGov flagged Kensington & Chelsea and Canterbury as probable Labour gains at GE17, something for which they were substantially ridiculed on here and elsewhere.



I think you ask everyone whether they eat broccoli, crunch numbers to check you have enough broccoli eaters on the poll and adjust, or map to the broccoli eating habits of different constituencies accordingly.

Thanks. Still can’t believe K&C fell

> @Pro_Rata said:
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1126506536384098305
> >
> >
> >
> > That’s not the actual poll, that’s an MRP model using poll data (WHY?). The actual poll;
> >
> >
> > Con 14%
> > Lab 26%
> > BRX 28%
> > LD 11%
> > CHUK 8%
> > UKIP 2%
> > SNP/PC 4%
> > Green 6%
> > Other 1%
> >
> > https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/centrum-campaign-electoral-calculus-european-parliamentary-elections-poll-may-2019/
>
> MRP - why not? From a polling POV, I don't see how it isn't just another of the filtering and weighting techniques that all polls employ, and secondly , it had a pretty decent record at GE17 in the hands of YouGov.
>
> AIUI, it does take some processing to do, but even so I'm surprised not to have seen it a little more.
>
> Or am I missing something.

If there was a REMAIN Candidate it would be

Labour: 27%
Brexit Party: 26%
Remain 25%

> @logical_song said:
> > @Pro_Rata said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1126506536384098305
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > That’s not the actual poll, that’s an MRP model using poll data (WHY?). The actual poll;
> > >
> > >
> > > Con 14%
> > > Lab 26%
> > > BRX 28%
> > > LD 11%
> > > CHUK 8%
> > > UKIP 2%
> > > SNP/PC 4%
> > > Green 6%
> > > Other 1%
> > >
> > > https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/centrum-campaign-electoral-calculus-european-parliamentary-elections-poll-may-2019/
> >
> > MRP - why not? From a polling POV, I don't see how it isn't just another of the filtering and weighting techniques that all polls employ, and secondly , it had a pretty decent record at GE17 in the hands of YouGov.
> >
> > AIUI, it does take some processing to do, but even so I'm surprised not to have seen it a little more.
> >
> > Or am I missing something.
>
> If there was a REMAIN Candidate it would be
>
> Labour: 27%
> Brexit Party: 26%
> Remain 25%

You cannot assume that all Green voters would vote for a Remain candidate.

RobD said:

Pro_Rata said:

> @RobD said:

> Asking for a friend... what is MRP?



Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification



Read here:



https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works



It is basically how YouGov flagged Kensington & Chelsea and Canterbury as probable Labour gains at GE17, something for which they were substantially ridiculed on here and elsewhere.



I think you ask everyone whether they eat broccoli, crunch numbers to check you have enough broccoli eaters on the poll and adjust, or map to the broccoli eating habits of different constituencies accordingly.

Thanks. Still can’t believe K&C fell

I did warn you about the pound shop Gordon Brown and how toxic she really was.

> @logical_song said:
>
> If there was a REMAIN Candidate it would be
>
> Labour: 27%
> Brexit Party: 26%
> Remain 25%

The England only version of those numbers would be interesting. I suspect Labour would be behind Remain and Brexit.

> @kle4 said:
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1126506536384098305
> >
> >
> > 14%? What the Tories would give for 14% in the Euros right now. Mere humiliation as opposed to outright contempt.
>
> Honestly I think position is more relevant for them now than percentage - if they can hold on to third that's a good result (comparitively) when by some polls they are not far off from 6th if a few percent move against them further!

Its going to be the lowest share of the vote for the Tories since universal suffrage. But I agree, coming 3rd would be a relative triumph.

DavidL said:

Its going to be the lowest share of the vote for the Tories since universal suffrage. But I agree, coming 3rd would be a relative triumph.

A well-deserved punishment for failing to deliver.

> @RobD said:
> Its going to be the lowest share of the vote for the Tories since universal suffrage. But I agree, coming 3rd would be a relative triumph.
>
> A well-deserved punishment for failing to deliver.

Although amusingly such a result will probably strengthen those who refused to deliver it!

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1126519281808752640

Conservatives should help the Conservative Party by voting for the Brexit Party.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/only-a-vote-for-the-brexit-party-can-save-the-tories/

> @kle4 said:
> > @RobD said:
> > Its going to be the lowest share of the vote for the Tories since universal suffrage. But I agree, coming 3rd would be a relative triumph.
> >
> > A well-deserved punishment for failing to deliver.
>
> Although amusingly such a result will probably strengthen those who refused to deliver it!

Rationality was one of the first casualties of the war.

> @DavidL said:
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > Its going to be the lowest share of the vote for the Tories since universal suffrage. But I agree, coming 3rd would be a relative triumph.
> > >
> > > A well-deserved punishment for failing to deliver.
> >
> > Although amusingly such a result will probably strengthen those who refused to deliver it!
>
> Rationality was one of the first casualties of the war.

Actually I think that was civility.

kle4 said:

> @DavidL said:

> > @kle4 said:

> > > @RobD said:

> > > Its going to be the lowest share of the vote for the Tories since universal suffrage. But I agree, coming 3rd would be a relative triumph.

> > >

> > > A well-deserved punishment for failing to deliver.

> >

> > Although amusingly such a result will probably strengthen those who refused to deliver it!

>

> Rationality was one of the first casualties of the war.



Actually I think that was civility.

What the fck you on about?

> @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > @Pro_Rata said:
> > I think you ask everyone whether they eat broccoli, crunch numbers to check you have enough broccoli eaters on the poll and adjust, or map to the broccoli eating habits of different constituencies, accordingly.
>
> How do they deal with shy pineapple pizza eaters?

I think they round them up, then divide by eight.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.



We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.



My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain

Big_G remains loyal. Perhaps things are looking up?

> @kle4 said:
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @RobD said:
> > > > Its going to be the lowest share of the vote for the Tories since universal suffrage. But I agree, coming 3rd would be a relative triumph.
> > > >
> > > > A well-deserved punishment for failing to deliver.
> > >
> > > Although amusingly such a result will probably strengthen those who refused to deliver it!
> >
> > Rationality was one of the first casualties of the war.
>
> Actually I think that was civility.

Civility has had the full Ramsey Bolton treatment. And then some.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1126519281808752640

They won’t be discussing the weather.

> @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1126519281808752640
>
> The difference is that Osborne was a grown up until he was sacked and became childish while Williamson never grew up

So Williamson is a Lost Boy and Osborne was one?

TGOHF said:

Joke party

https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1126521821959004162?s=21

lol

> @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.
> > >
> > > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.
> > >
> > > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain
> >
> > My better half is voting for the Brexit Party. I find the idea of voting for Farage seriously difficult. I think I will abstain.
>
> I will not vote for anthing that involves Farage and as TM has achieved a brexit deal I decided to stay loyal. The party needs loyalty right now

The party needs a lot of things Big_G. Whether one of them is loyalty to TM is debatable.

> @DavidL said:
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.
> > > >
> > > > We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.
> > > >
> > > > My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain
> > >
> > > My better half is voting for the Brexit Party. I find the idea of voting for Farage seriously difficult. I think I will abstain.
> >
> > I will not vote for anthing that involves Farage and as TM has achieved a brexit deal I decided to stay loyal. The party needs loyalty right now
>
> The party needs a lot of things Big_G. Whether one of them is loyalty to TM is debatable.

I think she needs to stand down now in an orderly manner but my vote is for my party that needs to come through this as soon as possible

Big_G_NorthWales said:

> @TGOHF said:

> Joke party

>

>

https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1126521821959004162

Going for a tactical remain vote no doubt - I expect they will support the lib dems

Why’d they form a new party then? Insane.

https://twitter.com/katyballs/status/1126522469538586624

> @ralphmalph said:
> Sky reporting no CHUK-TIG candidate for Peterborough,
>
> They could not even find an old retread to stand for them, oh dear.

Yes but it helps to consolidate the anti Farage vote

> @RobD said:
> > @TGOHF said:
>
> > Joke party
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1126521821959004162
>
>
>
>
>
> Going for a tactical remain vote no doubt - I expect they will support the lib dems
>
> Why’d they form a new party then? Insane.

A formal merger must be coming sooner or later

> @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > @RobD said:
> > > @TGOHF said:
> >
> > > Joke party
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1126521821959004162
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Going for a tactical remain vote no doubt - I expect they will support the lib dems
> >
> > Why’d they form a new party then? Insane.
>
> A formal merger must be coming sooner or later

> @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > @RobD said:
> > > @TGOHF said:
> >
> > > Joke party
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1126521821959004162
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Going for a tactical remain vote no doubt - I expect they will support the lib dems
> >
> > Why’d they form a new party then? Insane.
>
> A formal merger must be coming sooner or later

Why would you offer them the dignity of an amalgamation? Let them apply for membership if they want. That way you can be a bit more selective about who you actually want.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.



We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.



My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain

I’m in a bit of a dilemma. The top 2 Tories in the SE are Dan Hannan (whom I can’t abide) and Nirj Diva (whom I can’t take seriously). I will never vote for another party so the choices are not bothering at all, spoiling the ballot, or tightly holding the nose and put the X in the usual place.

> @Artist said:
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @ralphmalph said:
> > > Sky reporting no CHUK-TIG candidate for Peterborough,
> > >
> > > They could not even find an old retread to stand for them, oh dear.
> >
> > Yes but it helps to consolidate the anti Farage vote
>
> Yes, it would have been counter productive for a remain alliance to stand in Peterborough as it would have greatly increased the chances of the Brexit Party getting a real breakthrough. Hence why the remain candidate pulled out probably.

A number of other candidates are standing on a specific remain banner though, including one from UKEUP and one from Common Good

brokenwheel said:

That’s not the actual poll, that’s an MRP model using poll data (WHY?).

(Apologies if you already know this, but the other people in the class don't so it's worth repeating)

MRP takes the responses to a poll, notes the characteristics of the people who responded (age, sex, location, etc), then from that it builds a model of the voting intention for many categories of people (so sixtysomething males in the Easy of England are 40% probable to vote Brexit, twentysomething women in London are 30% probable to vote LD, and so on). Since the number of people of each type is known for each constituency, you can apply the probabilities to those numbers and come up with an estimate of the vote.

Since panel polls have large numbers of responses and statistical theory breaks down for self-selecting non-representative nonrandom panel responses, this modelling approach may be better than a conventional panel

The unacknowledged problem is that it might not actually be better, or if it is then not consistently better. We haven't had much experience with them (for political purposes at least!) and the assumption that they are better is simply that, an assumption. I also point out that correct turnout assumptions will be vital for a good prediction, but God alone knows for certs what, say, the Brexit party turnout will be. So I'm worried...

> @JohnO said:
> Received our postal ballots today along with conservative and plaid leaflets.
>
>
>
> We will not vote for Farage so our choice is the conservatives or lib dems. The conservative leaflet was quite good and much as I would like to vote lib dem I have decided to stay loyal to my party and vote conservative.
>
>
>
> My good lady says it will either be a conservative vote or she will abstain
>
> I’m in a bit of a dilemma. The top 2 Tories in the SE are Dan Hannan (whom I can’t abide) and Nirj Diva (whom I can’t take seriously). I will never vote for another party so the choices are not bothering at all, spoiling the ballot, or tightly holding the nose and put the X in the usual place.

Maybe holding nose and x in right place is best response. TM time is very limited

I'm confused. Is it no "Change UK" candidate, or is it "No-Change UK" candidate?

They should just pull out of the Euros too. A one-trick pony without the trick.