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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs the main gainers but there are a lot more results to come
Latest BBC scorecard pic.twitter.com/oteY2GR3QP
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Maybe the next PM really will be a Mr A.N. Other?
But we'll have to see how they compare with other mid-term results for a second-term government.
> @AndreaParma_82 said:
> 2 Tories elected in Bolsover
FPT:
@britainelects
6m6 minutes ago
Trafford, vote share:
Lab: 41.3% (+1.4)
Con: 29.4% (-14.5)
Grn: 12.6% (+4.0)
LDem: 10.6% (+4.1)
UKIP: 5.0% (+3.9)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124149818992070656
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1124066317257072641
https://twitter.com/ADCAshfield/status/1124143891924619264
<i>(1) On average independent candidates have won 25% of the vote in the 69 wards where they were standing
(2) This performance represents an increase of 15 points in the independent vote in those wards
(3) Their performance is not particularly stronger in Remain rather than Leave areas.</i>
Which would be sweet.
> Worth revisiting in the cold light of morning:
>
> https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1124066317257072641
As in disappearing down the plughole. The only choices were who to vote for out of the huge array who weren't Labour (or Tory obviously).
"A decent night for Labour" Haha!
That needs skill and judgement!
Former MP David Wright is among the new Cllr
At that rate they'll lose 1,200 which would be pretty bad.
But maybe extrapolating isn't a good guide?
Greens 200
Con 199
Lab 102
https://www.derbyshiredales.gov.uk/your-council/news-and-publications/latest-news/2842-district-council-elections-rolling-results-service
https://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2015/166/#ward6803
> Con have now lost 244 out of 994 councillors which have been declared so far - ie 1 in 4.
>
> At that rate they'll lose 1,200 which would be pretty bad.
>
> But maybe extrapolating isn't a good guide?
I think they could do slightly worse tomorrow than they've done tonight.
> Con have now lost 244 out of 994 councillors which have been declared so far - ie 1 in 4.
>
> At that rate they'll lose 1,200 which would be pretty bad.
>
> But maybe extrapolating isn't a good guide?
Those numbers don't appear consistent with those in the header that suggest a 1 in 10 rate.
Edit: I'm being dumb. 1 in 4 is similar to the numbers above.
Labour 50 seats
Nottingham Independents 3
Con 2
https://twitter.com/HughCasswell/status/1124156938839830528
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2019/may/02/leavers-v-remainers-how-britains-tribes-compare
Hint - no we're not. There are some issues where divides emerge, but many where there is broad consensus.
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1124162526332067840
Tell me Ms Patel, what was it about being forced from the Cabinet that turned you against the Prime Minister?
> Pritti.....ever helpful:
>
> https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1124162526332067840
>
>
>
> Tell me Ms Patel, what was it about being forced from the Cabinet that turned you against the Prime Minister?
Greens and Independents the winners in this part of her constituency.
> https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1124161121278210048
A Portillo moment
https://twitter.com/laurenamber_m/status/1124131965429592065
> Mogg Central falls to Lib Dems.
Only problem is the main challengers in his constituency are Labour not the LDs.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000846
Con 53.6%
Lab 34.7%
LD 8.3%
Greens 2.3%
Ind 1.1%
> Pritti.....ever helpful:
>
> https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1124162526332067840
>
>
>
> Tell me Ms Patel, what was it about being forced from the Cabinet that turned you against the Prime Minister?
Pretty snitty about Pritti, though Pritti’s pretty snitty herself....
But, Labour may end up with no net gains at all, which would leave the Conservatives with twice as many seats, and a lead of 4/5% in terms of NEV.
> @old_labour said:
> Anna Soubry claims a win for Change-UK in Broxtowe. An Ind who is a member of her party is elected.
>
> I wonder if the electors in the ward knew the independent was a member of her party.
> Ahsfield Council is all composed by Ashfield Independents now except for these 2 who survived
>
> https://twitter.com/laurenamber_m/status/1124131965429592065
Are they a couple? If not they should be
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1124169674722299905
BBC tally is Con -318, Lab -76.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1124161121278210048
>
> A Portillo moment
Cotswold Council features a lot in Private Eye. This was richly deserved.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1124170412038995968
> Labour have probably lost Bolsover.
Perhaps relevant http://www.waystone.co.uk/UK-Sites/Clowne/Master-Plan , residents of Clowne not happy about this.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48140849
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124169461672697857
For Lab & Lib Dem, Remain/Leave not much of a differentiator, but Con doing better in Leave (so much for "being punished for not delivering Brexit) and badly among Graduates (being punished for delivering Brexit?)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/may/02/local-elections-2019-live-results-for-english-councils
> Good graphics from the Guardian about the results here. You need to scroll down for individual councils and hit refresh every so often.
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/may/02/local-elections-2019-live-results-for-english-councils
Thank you, I haven't tried their site yet.
I came through Cirencester on Tuesday and there was a bigger than usual display of Lib Dem posters, so I did have an inkling about Cotswold.
I think that the Lib Dems will generally do better on the number of councils than the number of councillor gains would imply, because they are concentrating their vote in core areas: thus North Norfolk and Bath/NE Somerset. The Lib Dems are clearly back in business, and with a new leader in the offing and further progress in the Euros likely, I think we could see consistent high-teen poll ratings before the end of the summer, to match this evenings vote. I would be feeling pretty nervous tonight if I was a Tory MP for a seat that had been Lib Dem before 2015.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1124173145068515328
> > @old_labour said:
> > Good graphics from the Guardian about the results here. You need to scroll down for individual councils and hit refresh every so often.
> >
> > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/may/02/local-elections-2019-live-results-for-english-councils
>
> Thank you, I haven't tried their site yet.
Doesn't seem to show OTH parties unless it's labelling them Independents
https://twitter.com/bbcelection/status/1124176248291385344
Interesting results overnight - gains and losses almost at random which does suggest to me that regardless of national issues and trends people in local elections vote on local issues. No surprise that Andy Preston won the Middlesbrough mayoralty, he is a big name, was heavily backed by the local paper, and it's been funny seeing various other independents trying (and fakling) to cling onto his coat tails.
Stockton-on-Tees starts counting around 9:30. We have seats we are defend g against the Tories, others we hope to gain from Tories and indep3ndents, and one ward where the idiot Tories deselected the two long standing and popular candidates who then ran as I dependents against them.
My town of Thornaby is us vs the Thornaby independents. After a biter and increasingly negative and abusive campaign from them, and a positive reception on the doors for us, I hope that we will do ok.
> It looks to me as if the Tories are on track to lose about 1000 councillors overall. They have lost 331 with about 1/3 of the results in. That is pretty horrendous. Labour have lost far fewer councillors but this is principally because they had less to lose in these councils in the first place. Proportionally their results are almost as bad which is a truly terrible result for the main opposition party against a midterm government whose wheels have come off.
Labour really ought to be gaining seats overall. It's not clear whether they'll manage it. Bad results for the Tories, as expected. The expected very low turnout didn't materialise; it was about normal for a mid-term election.
> Morning all! My heartfelt considerations to HYUFD in losing by such a narrow margin.
>
> Interesting results overnight - gains and losses almost at random which does suggest to me that regardless of national issues and trends people in local elections vote on local issues. No surprise that Andy Preston won the Middlesbrough mayoralty, he is a big name, was heavily backed by the local paper, and it's been funny seeing various other independents trying (and fakling) to cling onto his coat tails.
>
> Stockton-on-Tees starts counting around 9:30. We have seats we are defend g against the Tories, others we hope to gain from Tories and indep3ndents, and one ward where the idiot Tories deselected the two long standing and popular candidates who then ran as I dependents against them.
>
> My town of Thornaby is us vs the Thornaby independents. After a biter and increasingly negative and abusive campaign from them, and a positive reception on the doors for us, I hope that we will do ok.
I'll be there. When do results normally start to be declared?
I would be worried if I were a Middlesbrough Labour councillor.
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1124178421960138752
> > @DavidL said:
> > It looks to me as if the Tories are on track to lose about 1000 councillors overall. They have lost 331 with about 1/3 of the results in. That is pretty horrendous. Labour have lost far fewer councillors but this is principally because they had less to lose in these councils in the first place. Proportionally their results are almost as bad which is a truly terrible result for the main opposition party against a midterm government whose wheels have come off.
>
> Labour really ought to be gaining seats overall. It's not clear whether they'll manage it. Bad results for the Tories, as expected. The expected very low turnout didn't materialise; it was about normal for a mid-term election.
Labour's NEV share is about 27%, which is awfully bad.
LabourList
> John Curtice once again reminding viewers that the Lib Dem gains are less significant when viewed in context – the 2015 results were their worst ever, so gains when the same seats are contested this time around will look disproportionately good.
>
> LabourList
Everyone is spinning like a top
https://www.bolsover.gov.uk/index.php/your-council/elections-voting?id=913
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > It looks to me as if the Tories are on track to lose about 1000 councillors overall. They have lost 331 with about 1/3 of the results in. That is pretty horrendous. Labour have lost far fewer councillors but this is principally because they had less to lose in these councils in the first place. Proportionally their results are almost as bad which is a truly terrible result for the main opposition party against a midterm government whose wheels have come off.
> >
> > Labour really ought to be gaining seats overall. It's not clear whether they'll manage it. Bad results for the Tories, as expected. The expected very low turnout didn't materialise; it was about normal for a mid-term election.
>
> Labour's NEV share is about 27%, which is awfully bad.
I've been waiting to hear the NEV figures all night. Where did you get them from?
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > It looks to me as if the Tories are on track to lose about 1000 councillors overall. They have lost 331 with about 1/3 of the results in. That is pretty horrendous. Labour have lost far fewer councillors but this is principally because they had less to lose in these councils in the first place. Proportionally their results are almost as bad which is a truly terrible result for the main opposition party against a midterm government whose wheels have come off.
> >
> > Labour really ought to be gaining seats overall. It's not clear whether they'll manage it. Bad results for the Tories, as expected. The expected very low turnout didn't materialise; it was about normal for a mid-term election.
>
> Labour's NEV share is about 27%, which is awfully bad.
They look like they are going to be down on 2015 which is a desperately poor result as that was not a good night for them. In contrast the Lib Dems, who got hammered in 2015, are recovering a fair bit of their lost ground.
2015 Changes Councillors / Councils:
Con: +541 / +32
Lab: -203 / -3
LibD: -411 / -4
UKIP: +176 / +1
Green: +10 / -
Ind: -125 / -1
This is the best night for the Liberal Democrats in over a decade... Back in business. That's going to add a different complexion to the Euros.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > @DavidL said:
> > > > It looks to me as if the Tories are on track to lose about 1000 councillors overall. They have lost 331 with about 1/3 of the results in. That is pretty horrendous. Labour have lost far fewer councillors but this is principally because they had less to lose in these councils in the first place. Proportionally their results are almost as bad which is a truly terrible result for the main opposition party against a midterm government whose wheels have come off.
> > >
> > > Labour really ought to be gaining seats overall. It's not clear whether they'll manage it. Bad results for the Tories, as expected. The expected very low turnout didn't materialise; it was about normal for a mid-term election.
> >
> > Labour's NEV share is about 27%, which is awfully bad.
>
> I've been waiting to hear the NEV figures all night. Where did you get them from?
The numbers have been moving around on BBC live updates. At the moment the Conservatives are down 6% on 2015, and Labour down 2%, and the Lib Dems up 9%. That gives 29%, 27%, 19%.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124140523642597378
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124141076992995328
> Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there.
One day you’ll be discouraged by the root cause, your namesake.
> Mixed results in Derby:
>
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124140523642597378
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124141076992995328
Those look like typical "anyone but the main two parties" type of results.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
>
> > John Curtice once again reminding viewers that the Lib Dem gains are less significant when viewed in context – the 2015 results were their worst ever, so gains when the same seats are contested this time around will look disproportionately good.
>
> >
>
> > LabourList
>
>
>
> Everyone is spinning like a top
>
> Unless LabourList are misquoting Curtice, it seems to be a reasonable observation.
>
> 2015 Changes Councillors / Councils:
> Con: +541 / +32
> Lab: -203 / -3
> LibD: -411 / -4
> UKIP: +176 / +1
> Green: +10 / -
> Ind: -125 / -1
So the Lib Dems are on track to do better than recover their 2015 losses. It will be an important boost for the party.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
>
> > John Curtice once again reminding viewers that the Lib Dem gains are less significant when viewed in context – the 2015 results were their worst ever, so gains when the same seats are contested this time around will look disproportionately good.
>
> >
>
> > LabourList
>
>
>
> Everyone is spinning like a top
>
> Unless LabourList are misquoting Curtice, it seems to be a reasonable observation.
>
> 2015 Changes Councillors / Councils:
> Con: +541 / +32
> Lab: -203 / -3
> LibD: -411 / -4
> UKIP: +176 / +1
> Green: +10 / -
> Ind: -125 / -1
Except that the national poll ratings for them haven’t shifted much since 2015
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
> >
> > > John Curtice once again reminding viewers that the Lib Dem gains are less significant when viewed in context – the 2015 results were their worst ever, so gains when the same seats are contested this time around will look disproportionately good.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > LabourList
> >
> >
> >
> > Everyone is spinning like a top
> >
> > Unless LabourList are misquoting Curtice, it seems to be a reasonable observation.
> >
> > 2015 Changes Councillors / Councils:
> > Con: +541 / +32
> > Lab: -203 / -3
> > LibD: -411 / -4
> > UKIP: +176 / +1
> > Green: +10 / -
> > Ind: -125 / -1
>
> So the Lib Dems are on track to do better than recover their 2015 losses. It will be an important boost for the party.
Sure its a good observation, but its Labour spinning Curtice's point.
The world has changed.
> I seem to recall seeing that NPXMP was standing as a councillor, one assumes in Broxtowe.. Did he get a Safe? seat?
Haslemere in Surrey. I expect counting today.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
> >
> > > John Curtice once again reminding viewers that the Lib Dem gains are less significant when viewed in context – the 2015 results were their worst ever, so gains when the same seats are contested this time around will look disproportionately good.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > LabourList
> >
> >
> >
> > Everyone is spinning like a top
> >
> > Unless LabourList are misquoting Curtice, it seems to be a reasonable observation.
> >
> > 2015 Changes Councillors / Councils:
> > Con: +541 / +32
> > Lab: -203 / -3
> > LibD: -411 / -4
> > UKIP: +176 / +1
> > Green: +10 / -
> > Ind: -125 / -1
>
> So the Lib Dems are on track to do better than recover their 2015 losses. It will be an important boost for the party.
These results are good, compared to 2011-18, but bad, compared to 1991-2010.
> So far, obviously good for the Lib Dems, who are benefitting from being the only viable party other than Labour and the Conservatives in most places. Yes of course 2015 was a particularly bad year for them but they flatlined in 2017. They’re on the up. That was not inevitable.
Indeed. If I was a Tory who won my seat from the Lib Dems in 2015 I would be a lot more twitchy this morning than I had been when the Lib Dems seemed to be struggling to reach double figures.
Weirdly UKIP are also doing well where they are standing. There is clearly an anti-incumbency bias.
> Once a Tory......
>
> https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1124178421960138752
Politics is a partisan business; whatever people say about her still being a Tory, as she starts identifying with and cheering for the other side, her attitudes will start to shift.
> So far, obviously good for the Lib Dems, who are benefitting from being the only viable party other than Labour and the Conservatives in most places. Yes of course 2015 was a particularly bad year for them but they flatlined in 2017. They’re on the up. That was not inevitable.
Yes it is encouraging to see so many signs of LD progress. Locals was always the blace to start to rebuild.
One caveat, local votes do not always translate to national votes, so notional national vote share can be quite misleading
Voters sick of the two main parties - and who can blame em.
I voted LibDem yesterday and it felt very good.
Similarly, it will be a big shock if Labour lose Cannock Chase, and a much bigger shock if Amanda Milling loses at the next election.
> Local election results are pushing me away from a 2nd referendum position, not off it completely but some discouragement there.
What's your alternative plan?
Leave the government to twist in the wind? That's working out less when than you might have hoped.
Vote TMay's deal through as is? You're already losing the Leave 20% of your vote, now you get to lose the Remain 80% too.
Do the customs union deal with TMay? The Tories will take your votes, change their leader and renege, which is the same as voting for TMay's deal as is except you'll look like chumps.
A good morning to wake up as a Lib Dem in West Oxfordshire... our “sister council” in Cotswold has gone orange and the Tories are currently falling like dominoes in the Vale.
And has precisely nothing to do with the efforts of Vince Cable.