politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So Team Corbyn decide to take a massive gamble and IGNORE LAB

TheJezziah said:

TOPPING said:

ydoethur said:

RobD said:

ydoethur said:

That's weird. Consecutive posts by @RobD where one was OK and the other wasn't.

(And top trolling by @Sunil_Prasannan.)

I swing both ways.

More seriously, I switched to the vanillacommunity site which is less broken.

Now it makes sense. That would also explain why mine is working.

I don't understand why everyone doesn't use the vanilla site. It's so much better and phone-friendly and you get the most recent at the bottom so catching up on threads is easy and intuitive.

I always use the vanilla site, much more intuitive.

Likewise, plus more ad revenue for OGH (I hope).

tlg86 said:

> @isam said:

> This is one of the best displays of football I have ever seen



Their second half in Turin was the best performance I've seen in many years.

Surely that was only half as good as Leicester played 2 days ago?

tlg86 said:

> @Foxy said:

> > @isam said:

>

> > This is one of the best displays of football I have ever seen

>

>

>

> Their second half in Turin was the best performance I've seen in many years.

>

> Surely that was only half as good as Leicester played 2 days ago?



You do have to take into account opposition both in terms of quality and quantity.

Yeah, Leicester squandered too many chances. Should have been 8 nil...

Should be 1-1 at half time.

isam said:

Foxy said:

tlg86 said:

> @isam said:

> This is one of the best displays of football I have ever seen



Their second half in Turin was the best performance I've seen in many years.

Surely that was only half as good as Leicester played 2 days ago?

Dear me that was not enjoyable. If we qualify for the CL we'll have Tielemens please

I rather enjoyed the afternoon!

Hamza Choudhury is the one to watch. He was also key to beating Man City on Boxing Day.

Well said Lisa Nandy. Tell the old crazy dinosaur where to go

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1123188317485355008?s=21

> @isam said:
> > @isam said:
>
> > This is one of the best displays of football I have ever seen
>
>
>
> Their second half in Turin was the best performance I've seen in many years.
>
> Surely that was only half as good as Leicester played 2 days ago?
>
> Dear me that was not enjoyable. If we qualify for the CL we'll have Tielemens please
>
> I rather enjoyed the afternoon!
>
> Hamza Choudhury is the one to watch. He was also key to beating Man City on Boxing Day.
>
> Leicester have some exciting young players for sure. Maddo needs to check his play acting though. V poor to get AMN sent off on Sunday, esp after he said sorry after being sent off himself for diving earlier this season

Maddison has his moments, but not unique in the PL for that.

Claude Puel set some very strong foundations for Rogers to build on. Puel is very astute tactician and scout, just a poor communicator and man manager.

It's Labour members cutting up their cards now.

https://twitter.com/UntoThislast2/status/1123309397537644544

Well, I am trying to do a blog on my work site and WordPress seems to have gone mad and does not allow me to type or edit. God knows why. Very frustrating! Why is IT so rubbish when you need it most?

If anyone has any helpful hints I will weep with gratitude and offer cups of coffee with chocolate galore!

Grrrr......

For the morning I think.

https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320

Toms said:

> @isam said:

> Well said Lisa Nandy. Tell the old crazy dinosaur where to go

> >

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1123188317485355008

But it's OK to ask Parliament three times?

I dont think they should have been asked at all

> @Toms said:
> > @isam said:
> > Well said Lisa Nandy. Tell the old crazy dinosaur where to go
> > > https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1123188317485355008
>
> But it's OK to ask Parliament three times?
>
>

Parliamentary debate is not the same as nationwide referenda.

But Nandy always talks a good game on such matters, but what will she actually do either to prevent it, or in response if it happens, other than moan?

In response to @NickPalmer:-

Thank you.

I suppose a leader could say "This is the best Leave deal we can get and a lot better than the rubbishy Tory deal. But it is not as good as Remain, which is what I'd prefer. The people should get a vote on whether they want to leave on this basis or Remain and in that campaign I will be on the Remain side."

He could. But he won't. And I understand why you're saying he won't. Still, with all due respect to you and to what you have said about Corbyn's views, I think that he is perfectly happen to leave the EU as he always has been and if the Tories can do the dirty deed and be destroyed by it, so much the better. He has calculated - almost certainly correctly - that those who care about Remaining on the Labour side will either stay with Labour, despite everything, or he can afford to lose their votes.

> @justin124 said:
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
> >
> > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.
>
> He should still face expulsion though.

I guess I should too then.

> @SandyRentool said:
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
>
> What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.

He regards himself as pro-EU but Hard Left? That’s probably a significant niche, though Jezz is unlikely to be aware of it.

Cyclefree said:

In response to @NickPalmer:-

Thank you.

I suppose a leader could say "This is the best Leave deal we can get and a lot better than the rubbishy Tory deal. But it is not as good as Remain, which is what I'd prefer. The people should get a vote on whether they want to leave on this basis or Remain and in that campaign I will be on the Remain side."

He could. But he won't. And I understand why you're saying he won't. Still, with all due respect to you and to what you have said about Corbyn's views, I think that he is perfectly happen to leave the EU as he always has been and if the Tories can do the dirty deed and be destroyed by it, so much the better. He has calculated - almost certainly correctly - that those who care about Remaining on the Labour side will either stay with Labour, despite everything, or he can afford to lose their votes.

Palmer is a loyalist. 10 years so far up the Blair /Brown era that he spent his days licking tonsils and he’s now a born again Corbynite, I’m not sure that he’s the first choice for honesty.

> @matt said:
> In response to @NickPalmer:-
>
> Thank you.
>
> I suppose a leader could say "This is the best Leave deal we can get and a lot better than the rubbishy Tory deal. But it is not as good as Remain, which is what I'd prefer. The people should get a vote on whether they want to leave on this basis or Remain and in that campaign I will be on the Remain side."
>
> He could. But he won't. And I understand why you're saying he won't. Still, with all due respect to you and to what you have said about Corbyn's views, I think that he is perfectly happen to leave the EU as he always has been and if the Tories can do the dirty deed and be destroyed by it, so much the better. He has calculated - almost certainly correctly - that those who care about Remaining on the Labour side will either stay with Labour, despite everything, or he can afford to lose their votes.
>
> Palmer is a loyalist. 10 years so far up the Blair /Brown era that he spent his days licking tonsils and he’s now a born again Corbynite, I’m not sure that he’s the first choice for honesty.

No - he really isn't.

Tick tock eh Nick

For somebody who isnt an antisemite, jezza doesnt half seem very keen on praising / befriending quite a lot of them.

> @TheJezziah said:
> Is this weird > thing happening when people not using vanilla quote?
>
> Can we force encourage people to type the correct code in manually if they refuse to use vanilla?

> @justin124 said:
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
> > > >
> > > > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.
> > >
> > > He should still face expulsion though.
> >
> > I guess I should too then.
>
> I believe that a member of any political party who reveals in public a clear intention to vote for a political opponent has to accept that the forfeiture of membership is the cost of such action. I recall an exchange on here a months back between Big G and Hyufd in which the latter was critical of Big G's decision to vote Labour in 1997 despite being a Tory party member. My sympathies were very much with Hyufd on this point - as someone who ceased to be a Labour member at the end of 1996 because I felt unable to support Blair's programme. Having done that, I felt able to please myself - and did not vote Labour again at a Parliamentary election until 2015.Had I not done that and advocated support for another party's candidate, I would have expected to face expulsion.

I'd be far from wanting party members to be loyal automatons, and of course in practice I'd imagine many many party members vote for others from time to time, but it doesn't seem unreasonable to me for a party to at the least expect its members to not publicly state they will vote for someone else. It gets a bit tricky where they don't actually follow through, and you cannot prove they did it if they won't admit it, but over powerful as they are party members voting for the party seems a low demand. If people cannot then they don't have to be members, no harm.

> @Floater said:
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > > @TheJezziah said:
> > > Is this weird > thing happening when people not using vanilla quote?
> > >
> > > Can we force encourage people to type the correct code in manually if they refuse to use vanilla?
> >
> >
>
> I picked up a brochure the other day about train journeys around Europe.
>
> Should I seek help?

Yes, from the Man in Seat 61.

Floater said:

Completely off topic



I really hate dementia



I have just had to tell my father not to leave the house with his baseball bat.....



(He has deteriorated a lot in the last week and I my brother and I are finalising a move to a care home near to me - this could be a long week or so)

Sad. Becomes a shell of the person you knew but, hey, never mind the quality feel the length.

Floater said:

Completely off topic
I really hate dementia
I have just had to tell my father not to leave the house with his baseball bat.....
(He has deteriorated a lot in the last week and I my brother and I are finalising a move to a care home near to me - this could be a long week or so)

Sounds like you are in for a rocky time. Best of luck.

Pulpstar said:

How much luck have spuds had this CL competition lol ?

Incredible.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1123278381565468672?s=20

> @HYUFD said:
> https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1123278381565468672?s=20

Yes, I count 90.

> @Pulpstar said:
> https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
>
> Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess.
> Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling.
>


He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there.

> @Recidivist said:
> > @justin124 said:
>
> > > @SandyRentool said:
>
> > > > @Scott_P said:
>
> > > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.
>
> >
>
> > He should still face expulsion though.
>
>
>
> I guess I should too then.
>
> Well I am not a member of any party, but it does seem a reasonable rule that one should not advocate voting for a party other than the one you belong to. That would strike me as pretty much the minimal level of commitment to the cause.

Michael Heseltine fails that test. Admittedly he advocated voting Labour, not knowing the extreme lengths that Corbyn's team would go to to facilitate Brexit.

Maybe he'd now say 'Vote Lib.Dem to stop Brexit'.

isam said:

Foxy said:

> @HYUFD said:

>

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1123278381565468672

Yes, I count 90.

https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1123291713924227073?s=21

https://twitter.com/stevenedginton/status/1123305586915983360?s=21

> @Pulpstar said:
> https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
>
> Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess.
> Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling.
>

It's fascinating how Biden's surge has come largely at the expense of Sanders. My assumption was that as Biden is extremely centrist, almost certainly to the right of Hillary, then he would be fishing in a different pool to Sanders.

So: Biden clear number one, and then five followers in the high single to low double digits: Harris, Beto, Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren.

Everyone else close to zero.

> @Andrew said:
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
> >
> > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess.
> > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling.
> >
>
>
> He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there.

I've been consistently bullish on him, he's seemed to ride out his metoo nonsense from earlier well too.

> @justin124 said:
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
> > > >
> > > > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.
> > >
> > > He should still face expulsion though.
> >
> > I guess I should too then.
>
> I believe that a member of any political party who reveals in public a clear intention to vote for a political opponent has to accept that the forfeiture of membership is the cost of such action. I recall an exchange on here a months back between Big G and Hyufd in which the latter was critical of Big G's decision to vote Labour in 1997 despite being a Tory party member. My sympathies were very much with Hyufd on this point - as someone who ceased to be a Labour member at the end of 1996 because I felt unable to support Blair's programme. Having done that, I felt able to please myself - and did not vote Labour again at a Parliamentary election until 2015.Had I not done that and advocated support for another party's candidate, I would have expected to face expulsion.

Just to correct you Justin. I was not a member when I voted for Blair

Is it tomorrow we find out whether there's going to be a by election in Peterborough?

> @Pulpstar said:
> Anecdotal... My <i>very</i> Corbynite friend announced he'd never vote Labouyr again today.
>

What was the final straw?

> @Pulpstar said:
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Andrew said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
> > > >
> > > > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess.
> > > > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling.
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there.
> >
> > He got a boost from the announcement but that will wane, especially if more allegations come out and Sanders and Warren are closer than nationally in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire
>
> Who are you backing ?

I still think Sanders will win Iowa and New Hampshire and the nomination, I narrowly favour Trump for the general election though

So let's say May and Corbyn agreed a Brexit deal tomorrow, and let's assume they have the votes combined to pass it. Wouldn't we still have to have EU elections, or can both UK and EU Parliaments pass something in time?

> @MikeSmithson said:
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Is it tomorrow we find out whether there's going to be a by election in Peterborough?
>
> Yes. Read the earlier thread

Thanks Mike.

I missed the morning thread today.

> @Quincel said:
> So let's say May and Corbyn agreed a Brexit deal tomorrow, and let's assume they have the votes combined to pass it. Wouldn't we still have to have EU elections, or can both UK and EU Parliaments pass something in time?

Those are some crazy assumptions.

But I thought there were some thinking that since the MEPs don't take up their seats right away we could technically not have the elections without it compromising any of their decisions, but that sounded like wishful thinking, I assume we have no choice now, which is another reason why no resolution will come soon.

https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1123337701380558850?s=21

> @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > @Benpointer said:
> > What's happened to PB blockquotes?!
>
> I blame brexit....

What Brexit?

> @williamglenn said:
> https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1123337701380558850?s=21

LOL @ all these lefties only just noticing Corbyn's a eurosceptic of 40 years standing?

> @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > @Benpointer said:
> > > > What's happened to PB blockquotes?!
> > >
> > > I blame brexit....
> >
> > What Brexit?
>
> More like what blockquotes....

Fair point

> @Quincel said:
> So let's say May and Corbyn agreed a Brexit deal tomorrow, and let's assume they have the votes combined to pass it. Wouldn't we still have to have EU elections, or can both UK and EU Parliaments pass something in time?

I think the EU elections will have to happen now but they're hoping we can be out before UK MEPs take their seats.

Personally I can't see a May/Corbyn deal passing the Commons.

May should definitely agree the Customs deal, if that is what it is, with Corbyn. It hurts Labour more than the Tories I think.

> @kle4 said:
> > @TGOHF said:
> > Goodbye Con party.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1123333794730250241
>
> The whole point of the negotiations to get a deal passed was to give in on something. Either that's worth it because otherwise no Brexit might happen, or it is a price too high/no deal Brexit can still happen, either way the caving in would be no surprise.
>
> I'm sure the Tories would get a pasting in locals and the Euros, but I'm not sure how they avoid that at this point. So the question is long term - if we did actually exit, however softly, how many would still be utterly furious? After all, to the ERGers Mays' deal was too soft, and yet while she was pushing it the Tory polling was fine.

I think that's right but isn't the problem that if May's deal gets passed the government likely falls on a VoNC as the DUP and various ERG hardline nutters throw their toys out of the pram?

> @GIN1138 said:
> > @Quincel said:
> > So let's say May and Corbyn agreed a Brexit deal tomorrow, and let's assume they have the votes combined to pass it. Wouldn't we still have to have EU elections, or can both UK and EU Parliaments pass something in time?
>
> I think the EU elections will have to happen now but they're hoping we can be out before UK MEPs take their seats.
>
> Personally I can't see a May/Corbyn deal passing the Commons.

If both front benches combined can't pass something then where the hell do we go ?