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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will John Bercow leave his job as Speaker in 2019?

SystemSystem Posts: 12,555
edited April 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will John Bercow leave his job as Speaker in 2019?

Earlier on this month I wrote a piece about the plans of Tory Leavers to try and oust John Bercow this week just gone, accurately I predicted they wouldn’t have the numbers to oust Speaker Bercow. 

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,974
    First like Bercow
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,579
    Ed Balls
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,974
    FPT:
    CarlottaVance said:

    Good post:

    The Tories have a debate on their hands about what direction they should go in. Do they return to the politics of the Cameron coalition? This delivered majority government, won over a greater percentage of AB (better off) voters, won more university towns, more professionals but fewer rural areas. Or should the Tories double down and become the Brexit party, moving towards what Nick Timothy says is the “National” party, with a rural, less affluent base led by someone like Boris Johnson?

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/the-tories-are-stuck-in-the-middle-with-may-heres-what-they-should-do-next/

    Surely it is almost too late to tack back toward moderate Toryism, short of electing a moderate who immediately cancels Brexit? If Brexit proceeds, or fails despite their efforts to the contrary, the die is cast for the Tories now.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    https://twitter.com/EmmaVigeland/status/1122139387972726784

    I suppose it is important to have a candidate representing the 20th century along with those more interested in modern day America.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Surely the best way to get rid of Bercow is to brief that the government will withhold his peerage. Oh wait, no, they tried that and it made him vow to stay on.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/19/john-bercow-remain-speaker-brexit-bias
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,579
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Surely the best way to get rid of Bercow is to brief that the government will withhold his peerage. Oh wait, no, they tried that and it made him vow to stay on.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/19/john-bercow-remain-speaker-brexit-bias

    I don't see how that's a way to get rid of Bercow. I don't think they thought it was a way of getting rid of him, either.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,974
    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,622
    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    It's convention that the Speaker takes a peerage upon departing his role.

    But it's only convention. If Bercow were removed from his position, there's nothing to force him to step down as an MP.

    So, assuming that Bercow was replaced by a reliable Leaver, well, the government's majority would likely be cut by two as Bercow would now be an opposition MP.

    Ultimately, though, there is no majority to remove Bercow from the role of Speaker. If there was a majority, then there would also be a majority for a particular form of Brexit. So fretting about Bercow's role, or plotting his removal, or whatever, is nothing more than displacement activity.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    A well-chosen by-election might be the blue team's best chance of winning something. Surely they couldn't lose Buckingham? They are not without a chance in Peterborough or Brecon & Radnor (subject to recall petitions). The LibDems are still down and out, and the new minor parties are fishing in the same two pools, with no record of success.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,150
    Good morning all; and a bright springlike one it seems to be so far, if cold. Post on my Facebook page today urging me to find out about and support the TIGGERS; the comments beneath it so far cannot be described as unanimously supportive.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,150
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    A well-chosen by-election might be the blue team's best chance of winning something. Surely they couldn't lose Buckingham? They are not without a chance in Peterborough or Brecon & Radnor (subject to recall petitions). The LibDems are still down and out, and the new minor parties are fishing in the same two pools, with no record of success.
    Has anyone any idea how the Peterborough petition is going? I know we're not supposed to know anything before the result is declared, but with all the local parties supporting recall someone must have an idea.
    And is there yet any actual intention to start one in Btrecon and Radnor? AFAIK at the moment it's all sound and fury, signifying nothing
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,710
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: had betting thoughts yesterday but the markets took a while to awaken so 'll see what's what. Hopefully get the pre-race tosh up this morning, although I do have some stuff to do so it might be early afternoon... we'll see.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    It's convention that the Speaker takes a peerage upon departing his role.

    But it's only convention. If Bercow were removed from his position, there's nothing to force him to step down as an MP.

    So, assuming that Bercow was replaced by a reliable Leaver, well, the government's majority would likely be cut by two as Bercow would now be an opposition MP.

    Ultimately, though, there is no majority to remove Bercow from the role of Speaker. If there was a majority, then there would also be a majority for a particular form of Brexit. So fretting about Bercow's role, or plotting his removal, or whatever, is nothing more than displacement activity.
    I don't particularly like John Bercow, but political assassination seems to be the only place where the ERG direct their energies.

    Easier than thinking, I suppose.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    IanB2 said:

    FPT:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Good post:

    The Tories have a debate on their hands about what direction they should go in. Do they return to the politics of the Cameron coalition? This delivered majority government, won over a greater percentage of AB (better off) voters, won more university towns, more professionals but fewer rural areas. Or should the Tories double down and become the Brexit party, moving towards what Nick Timothy says is the “National” party, with a rural, less affluent base led by someone like Boris Johnson?

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/the-tories-are-stuck-in-the-middle-with-may-heres-what-they-should-do-next/

    Surely it is almost too late to tack back toward moderate Toryism, short of electing a moderate who immediately cancels Brexit? If Brexit proceeds, or fails despite their efforts to the contrary, the die is cast for the Tories now.
    He's pro AV for the greater centre-right victory?

    Is he best mates with TSE?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,579
    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    A well-chosen by-election might be the blue team's best chance of winning something. Surely they couldn't lose Buckingham? They are not without a chance in Peterborough or Brecon & Radnor (subject to recall petitions). The LibDems are still down and out, and the new minor parties are fishing in the same two pools, with no record of success.
    Has anyone any idea how the Peterborough petition is going? I know we're not supposed to know anything before the result is declared, but with all the local parties supporting recall someone must have an idea.
    And is there yet any actual intention to start one in Btrecon and Radnor? AFAIK at the moment it's all sound and fury, signifying nothing
    Hasn't the Brecon one started already? I'm not sure what the criteria are, but Bercow announced there would be one.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,710
    Perez is 13 for a podium. Odds against, of course, but a little shorter than the 351 (1751 for the win each way) I tipped a while ago...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,974
    edited April 2019
    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    A well-chosen by-election might be the blue team's best chance of winning something. Surely they couldn't lose Buckingham? They are not without a chance in Peterborough or Brecon & Radnor (subject to recall petitions). The LibDems are still down and out, and the new minor parties are fishing in the same two pools, with no record of success.
    Has anyone any idea how the Peterborough petition is going? I know we're not supposed to know anything before the result is declared, but with all the local parties supporting recall someone must have an idea.
    And is there yet any actual intention to start one in Btrecon and Radnor? AFAIK at the moment it's all sound and fury, signifying nothing
    Not long to wait now.

    The petition has Corbyn’s backing:

    https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-very-sad-at-political-demise-of-fiona-onasanya-as-he-calls-on-peterborough-voters-to-kick-mp-out-of-parliament-1-8906547

    The money that was going toward a Tory victory looks rather more speculative now.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,150
    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    A well-chosen by-election might be the blue team's best chance of winning something. Surely they couldn't lose Buckingham? They are not without a chance in Peterborough or Brecon & Radnor (subject to recall petitions). The LibDems are still down and out, and the new minor parties are fishing in the same two pools, with no record of success.
    Has anyone any idea how the Peterborough petition is going? I know we're not supposed to know anything before the result is declared, but with all the local parties supporting recall someone must have an idea.
    And is there yet any actual intention to start one in Btrecon and Radnor? AFAIK at the moment it's all sound and fury, signifying nothing
    Hasn't the Brecon one started already? I'm not sure what the criteria are, but Bercow announced there would be one.
    Thanks. A little googling of the local Press suggests that the process is to start on May 9th. 6 signing places doesn't seem adequate for such a rural constituency.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,622
    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    It's convention that the Speaker takes a peerage upon departing his role.

    But it's only convention. If Bercow were removed from his position, there's nothing to force him to step down as an MP.

    So, assuming that Bercow was replaced by a reliable Leaver, well, the government's majority would likely be cut by two as Bercow would now be an opposition MP.

    Ultimately, though, there is no majority to remove Bercow from the role of Speaker. If there was a majority, then there would also be a majority for a particular form of Brexit. So fretting about Bercow's role, or plotting his removal, or whatever, is nothing more than displacement activity.
    I don't particularly like John Bercow, but political assassination seems to be the only place where the ERG direct their energies.

    Easier than thinking, I suppose.
    It allows them to go to bed at night, repeating to themselves "if only John Bercow didn't exist... if only John Bercow..."

    A better use of their time would be, ohhhhh, actually reading the Withdrawal Agreement. Or maybe actually, you know, delivering on Brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,078
    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    It's convention that the Speaker takes a peerage upon departing his role.

    But it's only convention. If Bercow were removed from his position, there's nothing to force him to step down as an MP.

    So, assuming that Bercow was replaced by a reliable Leaver, well, the government's majority would likely be cut by two as Bercow would now be an opposition MP.

    Ultimately, though, there is no majority to remove Bercow from the role of Speaker. If there was a majority, then there would also be a majority for a particular form of Brexit. So fretting about Bercow's role, or plotting his removal, or whatever, is nothing more than displacement activity.
    I don't particularly like John Bercow, but political assassination seems to be the only place where the ERG direct their energies.

    Easier than thinking, I suppose.
    Surprisingly the title of ERG leader seems to get passed around without argument.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,974
    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    It's convention that the Speaker takes a peerage upon departing his role.

    But it's only convention. If Bercow were removed from his position, there's nothing to force him to step down as an MP.

    So, assuming that Bercow was replaced by a reliable Leaver, well, the government's majority would likely be cut by two as Bercow would now be an opposition MP.

    Ultimately, though, there is no majority to remove Bercow from the role of Speaker. If there was a majority, then there would also be a majority for a particular form of Brexit. So fretting about Bercow's role, or plotting his removal, or whatever, is nothing more than displacement activity.
    I don't particularly like John Bercow, but political assassination seems to be the only place where the ERG direct their energies.

    Easier than thinking, I suppose.
    A handy scapegoat for their own incompetent mendacity.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,710
    Betting Post

    Nothing quite like checking e-mail repeatedly, only for the one day you don't to actually get one...

    Anyway, the pre-race ramble will be up fairly shortly. As usual, there are various betting musings. I've gone for a short odds bet, which isn't my typical modus operandi.

    Backed under 15.5 finishers at 1.72.

    There were a few other tempting bets (Hulkenberg DNF at 3, Alfa Romeo double score at 15, Leclerc/Verstappen to win at 7 and 13 respectively) but the nature of the circuit makes finding value a bit tricky as races can be quite chaotic.

    The post-race ramble will probably be going up on Monday.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,710
    Ahem, small correction to the above: that's classified finishers. Likely to be the same result, but if someone crashes in the last couple of laps they're still classified.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,060
    Bercow does not come across as a nice person, but on the whole I think he's been a good speaker. He's sharp, he's not intimidated by the government and he's high profile. When you compare him to the abject Martin and the shambles he left behind, he seems to have moved things on.

    It is not his fault the Commons is deadlocked and has become a laughing stock, and it isn't his job to find a way round that. So he does get a pass on the current mess.

    That said, after ten years it would seem sensible to have some change at the top. So if he does stay on, I think there is a risk he'll outstay his welcome.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,710
    Pre-race ramble: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/04/azerbaijan-pre-race-2019.html
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,150
    ydoethur said:

    Bercow does not come across as a nice person, but on the whole I think he's been a good speaker. He's sharp, he's not intimidated by the government and he's high profile. When you compare him to the abject Martin and the shambles he left behind, he seems to have moved things on.

    It is not his fault the Commons is deadlocked and has become a laughing stock, and it isn't his job to find a way round that. So he does get a pass on the current mess.

    That said, after ten years it would seem sensible to have some change at the top. So if he does stay on, I think there is a risk he'll outstay his welcome.

    'It is not his fault the Commons is deadlocked and has become a laughing stock, and it isn't his job to find a way round that. So he does get a pass on the current mess.'

    I suggest that while you are correct up as far as the comma, it is, though, his job, as the chairman, as the representative of the members, 'to find a way round that'. So no, he shouldn't get a pass, although the behaviour of some Members makes that task exceedingly difficult.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,060
    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    Bercow does not come across as a nice person, but on the whole I think he's been a good speaker. He's sharp, he's not intimidated by the government and he's high profile. When you compare him to the abject Martin and the shambles he left behind, he seems to have moved things on.

    It is not his fault the Commons is deadlocked and has become a laughing stock, and it isn't his job to find a way round that. So he does get a pass on the current mess.

    That said, after ten years it would seem sensible to have some change at the top. So if he does stay on, I think there is a risk he'll outstay his welcome.

    'It is not his fault the Commons is deadlocked and has become a laughing stock, and it isn't his job to find a way round that. So he does get a pass on the current mess.'

    I suggest that while you are correct up as far as the comma, it is, though, his job, as the chairman, as the representative of the members, 'to find a way round that'. So no, he shouldn't get a pass, although the behaviour of some Members makes that task exceedingly difficult.
    There I disagree. It is the government's task to do so. There is a device called a Speaker's Conference that they could use, but they've tried that already and it failed because Corbyn refused to be in the same room as Ummunna.

    The problem at this moment is there is no way out of this impasse. Either the ERG/DUP are going to have accept what they want is unreasonable and compromise, or ultra-Remainers are going to have to accept that what they want is impossible and compromise. Because both groups have yet to realise this, and between them they form a majority, we're deadlocked.

    And I can't see how that's Bercow's fault or how he could resolve it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,579
    OldKingCole said:

    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    A well-chosen by-election might be the blue team's best chance of winning something. Surely they couldn't lose Buckingham? They are not without a chance in Peterborough or Brecon & Radnor (subject to recall petitions). The LibDems are still down and out, and the new minor parties are fishing in the same two pools, with no record of success.
    Has anyone any idea how the Peterborough petition is going? I know we're not supposed to know anything before the result is declared, but with all the local parties supporting recall someone must have an idea.
    And is there yet any actual intention to start one in Btrecon and Radnor? AFAIK at the moment it's all sound and fury, signifying nothing
    Hasn't the Brecon one started already? I'm not sure what the criteria are, but Bercow announced there would be one.
    Thanks. A little googling of the local Press suggests that the process is to start on May 9th. 6 signing places doesn't seem adequate for such a rural constituency.
    Given that it's spread over multiple weeks, and not a day, people will have ample opportunity to sign.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,622
    RobD said:

    Ed Balls

    Good to see the old traditions still being respected. Perhaps they can give us some stability in these troubled times?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,150
    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    Bercow does not come across as a nice person, but on the whole I think he's been a good speaker. He's sharp, he's not intimidated by the government and he's high profile. When you compare him to the abject Martin and the shambles he left behind, he seems to have moved things on.

    It is not his fault the Commons is deadlocked and has become a laughing stock, and it isn't his job to find a way round that. So he does get a pass on the current mess.

    That said, after ten years it would seem sensible to have some change at the top. So if he does stay on, I think there is a risk he'll outstay his welcome.

    'It is not his fault the Commons is deadlocked and has become a laughing stock, and it isn't his job to find a way round that. So he does get a pass on the current mess.'

    I suggest that while you are correct up as far as the comma, it is, though, his job, as the chairman, as the representative of the members, 'to find a way round that'. So no, he shouldn't get a pass, although the behaviour of some Members makes that task exceedingly difficult.
    There I disagree. It is the government's task to do so. There is a device called a Speaker's Conference that they could use, but they've tried that already and it failed because Corbyn refused to be in the same room as Ummunna.

    The problem at this moment is there is no way out of this impasse. Either the ERG/DUP are going to have accept what they want is unreasonable and compromise, or ultra-Remainers are going to have to accept that what they want is impossible and compromise. Because both groups have yet to realise this, and between them they form a majority, we're deadlocked.

    And I can't see how that's Bercow's fault or how he could resolve it.
    May couldn't tell Corbyn not to get off the world, but Bercow could.I agree with your second para, and I think Bercow has a duty to have private words with the awkward squad. On both sides.
    Of course he may have already done so and the DUP in particular just said NO!!!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,150
    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    A well-chosen by-election might be the blue team's best chance of winning something. Surely they couldn't lose Buckingham? They are not without a chance in Peterborough or Brecon & Radnor (subject to recall petitions). The LibDems are still down and out, and the new minor parties are fishing in the same two pools, with no record of success.
    Has anyone any idea how the Peterborough petition is going? I know we're not supposed to know anything before the result is declared, but with all the local parties supporting recall someone must have an idea.
    And is there yet any actual intention to start one in Btrecon and Radnor? AFAIK at the moment it's all sound and fury, signifying nothing
    Hasn't the Brecon one started already? I'm not sure what the criteria are, but Bercow announced there would be one.
    Thanks. A little googling of the local Press suggests that the process is to start on May 9th. 6 signing places doesn't seem adequate for such a rural constituency.
    Given that it's spread over multiple weeks, and not a day, people will have ample opportunity to sign.
    I wonder how many people never, or very, very rarely, go from Builth Wells to Brecon. For example.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,060
    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    A well-chosen by-election might be the blue team's best chance of winning something. Surely they couldn't lose Buckingham? They are not without a chance in Peterborough or Brecon & Radnor (subject to recall petitions). The LibDems are still down and out, and the new minor parties are fishing in the same two pools, with no record of success.
    Has anyone any idea how the Peterborough petition is going? I know we're not supposed to know anything before the result is declared, but with all the local parties supporting recall someone must have an idea.
    And is there yet any actual intention to start one in Btrecon and Radnor? AFAIK at the moment it's all sound and fury, signifying nothing
    Hasn't the Brecon one started already? I'm not sure what the criteria are, but Bercow announced there would be one.
    Thanks. A little googling of the local Press suggests that the process is to start on May 9th. 6 signing places doesn't seem adequate for such a rural constituency.
    Given that it's spread over multiple weeks, and not a day, people will have ample opportunity to sign.
    Locations are here:

    https://www.countytimes.co.uk/news/17600082.recall-petition-for-chris-davies-brecon-and-radnor-seat-to-open-on-may-9/

    I have to say I don't think it serves the north and west of the constituency very well. But then, not many people live there.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,323
    If we have an election in 2019, then that new Parliament will want a new Speaker.

    And I see an election this year as still the likeliest way to break the Westminster log-jam.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,060
    OldKingCole said:

    May couldn't tell Corbyn not to get off the world, but Bercow could.

    How? Suspend Corbyn from the Commons? Dock his pay? Throw him in Thames? I don't think he can compel Corbyn to behave like an adult rather than a petulant three year old. After all, everyone else who has tried has failed.

    The problem is, if he tries to get involved in a policy matter, he compromises his neutrality. Now, while I am aware there are people posting who will make remarks about 'that happened years ago,' if he is seen to be taking sides - either side - he is likely to entrench the other side and make progress less likely.

    So yes, he can urge all sides to talk, but he cannot compel people to vote a particular way. From that point of view, he is not like a chairman, more like a moderator.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Ed Balls day has a sad taste this year in he light of the Brexit debacle. Love him of loathe him he represents a group of politicians who simply weren’t quite as shite as the current lot, but somehow themselves managed to screw it up to the extent they’re reduced to dancing for money or editing local newspapers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,060
    OldKingCole said:

    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    A well-chosen by-election might be the blue team's best chance of winning something. Surely they couldn't lose Buckingham? They are not without a chance in Peterborough or Brecon & Radnor (subject to recall petitions). The LibDems are still down and out, and the new minor parties are fishing in the same two pools, with no record of success.
    Has anyone any idea how the Peterborough petition is going? I know we're not supposed to know anything before the result is declared, but with all the local parties supporting recall someone must have an idea.
    And is there yet any actual intention to start one in Btrecon and Radnor? AFAIK at the moment it's all sound and fury, signifying nothing
    Hasn't the Brecon one started already? I'm not sure what the criteria are, but Bercow announced there would be one.
    Thanks. A little googling of the local Press suggests that the process is to start on May 9th. 6 signing places doesn't seem adequate for such a rural constituency.
    Given that it's spread over multiple weeks, and not a day, people will have ample opportunity to sign.
    I wonder how many people never, or very, very rarely, go from Builth Wells to Brecon. For example.
    But they have a petition in Llandod. They're not the problem.

    It's people living north of Rhayader and Knighton that may struggle. You would have thought the common sense solution to that would be to bend the rule on 'must be in the constituency' and open a book in Newtown.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,608
    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,710
    Mr. Jonathan, aye.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,579
    OldKingCole said:

    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    A well-chosen by-election might be the blue team's best chance of winning something. Surely they couldn't lose Buckingham? They are not without a chance in Peterborough or Brecon & Radnor (subject to recall petitions). The LibDems are still down and out, and the new minor parties are fishing in the same two pools, with no record of success.
    Has anyone any idea how the Peterborough petition is going? I know we're not supposed to know anything before the result is declared, but with all the local parties supporting recall someone must have an idea.
    And is there yet any actual intention to start one in Btrecon and Radnor? AFAIK at the moment it's all sound and fury, signifying nothing
    Hasn't the Brecon one started already? I'm not sure what the criteria are, but Bercow announced there would be one.
    Thanks. A little googling of the local Press suggests that the process is to start on May 9th. 6 signing places doesn't seem adequate for such a rural constituency.
    Given that it's spread over multiple weeks, and not a day, people will have ample opportunity to sign.
    I wonder how many people never, or very, very rarely, go from Builth Wells to Brecon. For example.
    Unless they had a reason.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,974
    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    BRA replaced by BWS
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    Ouch. The price of boredom can be very high.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,945
    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    May couldn't tell Corbyn not to get off the world, but Bercow could.

    How? Suspend Corbyn from the Commons? Dock his pay? Throw him in Thames? I don't think he can compel Corbyn to behave like an adult rather than a petulant three year old. After all, everyone else who has tried has failed.

    The problem is, if he tries to get involved in a policy matter, he compromises his neutrality. Now, while I am aware there are people posting who will make remarks about 'that happened years ago,' if he is seen to be taking sides - either side - he is likely to entrench the other side and make progress less likely.

    So yes, he can urge all sides to talk, but he cannot compel people to vote a particular way. From that point of view, he is not like a chairman, more like a moderator.
    Have to say that I agree with you on Bercow (and I don’t like him at all).

    Meantime, it is remarkable that Trump can find time to golf three times a week, but is happy to break a tradition going back to Truman...
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/26/trump-skip-national-teacher-of-the-year-award-ceremony-1386862
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,078
    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1122377404293500928?s=21
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,323
    edited April 2019
    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    Leeds losing to Villa in the playoffs won't help your mood....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,945
    edited April 2019
    TheJezziah said:

    https://twitter.com/EmmaVigeland/status/1122139387972726784

    I suppose it is important to have a candidate representing the 20th century along with those more interested in modern day America.

    Well it certainly differentiates him from the rest of the field....

    I can’t decide if this is part of a viable strategy, or a cunning plan of Baldrick proportions.

    (edit) I see this isn’t actually his campaign position, but a reflection on his legislative record from the 90s.
    It will be interesting to see how Biden addresses questions about marijuana and drug policy in general when put on stage alongside a crowd of other candidates that uniformly support legalization. Will he double down in his opposition or make vague promises not to crack down on legal cannabis states?...
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,629
    edited April 2019
    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,608
    MarqueeMark said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    Leeds losing to Villa in the playoffs won't help your mood....
    The real damage was done earlier in the month with the Wigan and Brentford losses. They look brainfucked at the moment. WACCOE!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,060
    Nigelb said:

    TheJezziah said:

    https://twitter.com/EmmaVigeland/status/1122139387972726784

    I suppose it is important to have a candidate representing the 20th century along with those more interested in modern day America.

    Well it certainly differentiates him from the rest of the field....

    I can’t decide if this is part of a viable strategy, or a cunning plan of Baldrick proportions.
    Let us not cast stonings at his strategy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    It's convention that the Speaker takes a peerage upon departing his role.

    But it's only convention. If Bercow were removed from his position, there's nothing to force him to step down as an MP.

    So, assuming that Bercow was replaced by a reliable Leaver, well, the government's majority would likely be cut by two as Bercow would now be an opposition MP.

    Ultimately, though, there is no majority to remove Bercow from the role of Speaker. If there was a majority, then there would also be a majority for a particular form of Brexit. So fretting about Bercow's role, or plotting his removal, or whatever, is nothing more than displacement activity.
    I don't particularly like John Bercow, but political assassination seems to be the only place where the ERG direct their energies.

    Easier than thinking, I suppose.
    It allows them to go to bed at night, repeating to themselves "if only John Bercow didn't exist... if only John Bercow..."

    A better use of their time would be, ohhhhh, actually reading the Withdrawal Agreement. Or maybe actually, you know, delivering on Brexit.
    It's utterly remarkable they haven't done so. I'd be sacked if I was so similarly sloppy and lazy.

    I can't think of anything else that's so undermined my confidence in some of our representatives.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,775
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheJezziah said:

    https://twitter.com/EmmaVigeland/status/1122139387972726784

    I suppose it is important to have a candidate representing the 20th century along with those more interested in modern day America.

    Well it certainly differentiates him from the rest of the field....

    I can’t decide if this is part of a viable strategy, or a cunning plan of Baldrick proportions.
    Let us not cast stonings at his strategy.
    He's making a hash of things?

    OK, I'll get me dressing gown.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,060
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheJezziah said:

    https://twitter.com/EmmaVigeland/status/1122139387972726784

    I suppose it is important to have a candidate representing the 20th century along with those more interested in modern day America.

    Well it certainly differentiates him from the rest of the field....

    I can’t decide if this is part of a viable strategy, or a cunning plan of Baldrick proportions.
    Let us not cast stonings at his strategy.
    He's making a hash of things?

    OK, I'll get me dressing gown.
    That was a weedy attempt at humour.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,945
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheJezziah said:

    https://twitter.com/EmmaVigeland/status/1122139387972726784

    I suppose it is important to have a candidate representing the 20th century along with those more interested in modern day America.

    Well it certainly differentiates him from the rest of the field....

    I can’t decide if this is part of a viable strategy, or a cunning plan of Baldrick proportions.
    Let us not cast stonings at his strategy.
    That would indeed be a mistoke.

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,775
    Btw, I notice that Ladbrokes have cut the price on Tories <10% in the Euro Elections - down to 7/2. Hat-tip to whoever pointed out this bet when it was 12/1. Those that got on at that price can now hedge comfortably by backing 10/20% at 4/9.

    Thanks PBer, whoever you are.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,060
    edited April 2019
    To play devil's advocate against myself - which sounds schizophrenic - I suppose there is one way Bercow could break the deadlock, and that is to allow a binding vote where the options are not 'aye' or 'nay' but 'Deal' or 'Specified Other' (which I think would have to be a referendum on 'Deal/Revoke.')

    That might just push the headbangers into line. But given their extraordinary inability to understand basic concepts, they'd probably vote for the referendum in the belief it would lead to No Deal.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,608
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    The Fizzy is the on the very long list of vehicles I have destroyed in crashes. I had a 1979 one in blue. I did some hamfisted teenage porting and jetting on it leading to a 35mph downhill engine seize (I told my mates it was 70mph), subsequent ejection of the operating crew and total destruction.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,060
    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    It's convention that the Speaker takes a peerage upon departing his role.

    But it's only convention. If Bercow were removed from his position, there's nothing to force him to step down as an MP.

    So, assuming that Bercow was replaced by a reliable Leaver, well, the government's majority would likely be cut by two as Bercow would now be an opposition MP.

    Ultimately, though, there is no majority to remove Bercow from the role of Speaker. If there was a majority, then there would also be a majority for a particular form of Brexit. So fretting about Bercow's role, or plotting his removal, or whatever, is nothing more than displacement activity.
    I don't particularly like John Bercow, but political assassination seems to be the only place where the ERG direct their energies.

    Easier than thinking, I suppose.
    It allows them to go to bed at night, repeating to themselves "if only John Bercow didn't exist... if only John Bercow..."

    A better use of their time would be, ohhhhh, actually reading the Withdrawal Agreement. Or maybe actually, you know, delivering on Brexit.
    It's utterly remarkable they haven't done so. I'd be sacked if I was so similarly sloppy and lazy.

    I can't think of anything else that's so undermined my confidence in some of our representatives.
    If I was as bad at teaching as the ERG are at politics, I'd be sacked as well.

    Or working as a Principal Examiner for AQA.

    One of the two.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,323
    Dura_Ace said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    Leeds losing to Villa in the playoffs won't help your mood....
    The real damage was done earlier in the month with the Wigan and Brentford losses. They look brainfucked at the moment. WACCOE!
    Determined to take the "Defeat from Jaws of Victory Award 2019" from the ERG.....
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,629
    Dura_Ace said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    The Fizzy is the on the very long list of vehicles I have destroyed in crashes. I had a 1979 one in blue. I did some hamfisted teenage porting and jetting on it leading to a 35mph downhill engine seize (I told my mates it was 70mph), subsequent ejection of the operating crew and total destruction.
    The late 70s/early 80s was a great time for illegal moped modification. MOTs, tax and insurance were optional as I recall.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,945
    ydoethur said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    It's convention that the Speaker takes a peerage upon departing his role.

    But it's only convention. If Bercow were removed from his position, there's nothing to force him to step down as an MP.

    So, assuming that Bercow was replaced by a reliable Leaver, well, the government's majority would likely be cut by two as Bercow would now be an opposition MP.

    Ultimately, though, there is no majority to remove Bercow from the role of Speaker. If there was a majority, then there would also be a majority for a particular form of Brexit. So fretting about Bercow's role, or plotting his removal, or whatever, is nothing more than displacement activity.
    I don't particularly like John Bercow, but political assassination seems to be the only place where the ERG direct their energies.

    Easier than thinking, I suppose.
    It allows them to go to bed at night, repeating to themselves "if only John Bercow didn't exist... if only John Bercow..."

    A better use of their time would be, ohhhhh, actually reading the Withdrawal Agreement. Or maybe actually, you know, delivering on Brexit.
    It's utterly remarkable they haven't done so. I'd be sacked if I was so similarly sloppy and lazy.

    I can't think of anything else that's so undermined my confidence in some of our representatives.
    If I was as bad at teaching as the ERG are at politics, I'd be sacked as well.

    Or working as a Principal Examiner for AQA.

    One of the two.
    Yes, OFSTED would be a step too far down.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,014
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    Oh happy days!

    I acquired an Elsie like that once. I think I am too old to wheelie away from the lights now...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,974
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1122377404293500928?s=21

    That's a lot of people already. But if course it's just a warning.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,150
    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something tells me the Tories don’t want another by-election.

    A well-chosen by-election might be the blue team's best chance of winning something. Surely they couldn't lose Buckingham? They are not without a chance in Peterborough or Brecon & Radnor (subject to recall petitions). The LibDems are still down and out, and the new minor parties are fishing in the same two pools, with no record of success.
    Has anyone any idea how the Peterborough petition is going? I know we're not supposed to know anything before the result is declared, but with all the local parties supporting recall someone must have an idea.
    And is there yet any actual intention to start one in Btrecon and Radnor? AFAIK at the moment it's all sound and fury, signifying nothing
    Hasn't the Brecon one started already? I'm not sure what the criteria are, but Bercow announced there would be one.
    Thanks. A little googling of the local Press suggests that the process is to start on May 9th. 6 signing places doesn't seem adequate for such a rural constituency.
    Given that it's spread over multiple weeks, and not a day, people will have ample opportunity to sign.
    I wonder how many people never, or very, very rarely, go from Builth Wells to Brecon. For example.
    But they have a petition in Llandod. They're not the problem.

    It's people living north of Rhayader and Knighton that may struggle. You would have thought the common sense solution to that would be to bend the rule on 'must be in the constituency' and open a book in Newtown.
    To be fair, and arguing against myself, very early in the last century my grandmother, who lived in Builth at the time, wrote of going to Llanidloes fair.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,608
    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    Oh happy days!

    I acquired an Elsie like that once. I think I am too old to wheelie away from the lights now...
    Crashed one of them as well. 1981 RD250LC in red/white. It was my first proper bike and would just do 100mph if I laid flat on the tank and seat with my feet hanging over the rear light.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,014
    Trump talking about neonatal palliative care at a MAGA rally in Wisconsin.

    https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1122317554582794240?s=19

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,709
    Looks a good bet to me. A Speaker's Conference hasn't been tried, contrary to what someone posted below, but these are not taken at the initiative of the Speaker - rather, Parliament votes to have one on some subject, hoping to be guided by the solemnity and impartiality of the Speaker. I'm not convinced that all MPs would feel that's the way forward on the EU.

    Main snag is as Marquee Mark says that an election could lead to a new Speaker. But I'm not clear how that will happen. May isn't going anywhere, and her party opponents apparently don't have the votes to force her out. An election called by May as party leader would be fun, but implausible.

    Presumably bad election results will produce a rerun of:

    1. Opponents say, "This must end!" and challenge May.
    2. May says nothing.
    3. The revolt fizzles.
    4. May continues.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,945
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    Oh happy days!

    I acquired an Elsie like that once. I think I am too old to wheelie away from the lights now...
    Crashed one of them as well. 1981 RD250LC in red/white. It was my first proper bike and would just do 100mph if I laid flat on the tank and seat with my feet hanging over the rear light.
    I’m seeing a unifying theme for that Top Gear replacement you should get the BBC to go with....

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I’d prefer to lay a 2019 election: the odds are better. I don’t see him staying past the next election whenever it takes place.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,014
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    Oh happy days!

    I acquired an Elsie like that once. I think I am too old to wheelie away from the lights now...
    Crashed one of them as well. 1981 RD250LC in red/white. It was my first proper bike and would just do 100mph if I laid flat on the tank and seat with my feet hanging over the rear light.
    And all on L plates with no requirement for lessons. It's a wonder anyone survived.

    I only came off once at speed. Just bruises fortunately.

    Though confession time, my first bike was an MZ. Worst brakes, tires and electrics of any vehicle I have owned.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,608
    Foxy said:



    Though confession time, my first bike was an MZ. Worst brakes, tires and electrics of any vehicle I have owned.

    We've found something I haven't crashed! I never ridden an MZ but I remember reading the test of an MZ250 in Bike magazine where the carb fell off at a traffic light.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,150
    edited April 2019
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    Oh happy days!

    I acquired an Elsie like that once. I think I am too old to wheelie away from the lights now...
    Crashed one of them as well. 1981 RD250LC in red/white. It was my first proper bike and would just do 100mph if I laid flat on the tank and seat with my feet hanging over the rear light.
    And all on L plates with no requirement for lessons. It's a wonder anyone survived.

    I only came off once at speed. Just bruises fortunately.

    Though confession time, my first bike was an MZ. Worst brakes, tires and electrics of any vehicle I have owned.
    Passed my m/cycle test on a 50cc (and 30mph) moped, then bought a 250! Haven't ridden a bike for 30 years, but apparently my licence is till valid.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,613
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Btw, I notice that Ladbrokes have cut the price on Tories <10% in the Euro Elections - down to 7/2. Hat-tip to whoever pointed out this bet when it was 12/1. Those that got on at that price can now hedge comfortably by backing 10/20% at 4/9.

    Thanks PBer, whoever you are.</p>

    ‘Twas I.

    Was only a fortnight ago, it seems like an age ago.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/14/why-im-taking-the-12-1-on-the-tories-polling-under-10-in-the-european-election/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,014
    OldKingCole said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    Oh happy days!

    I acquired an Elsie like that once. I think I am too old to wheelie away from the lights now...
    Crashed one of them as well. 1981 RD250LC in red/white. It was my first proper bike and would just do 100mph if I laid flat on the tank and seat with my feet hanging over the rear light.
    And all on L plates with no requirement for lessons. It's a wonder anyone survived.

    I only came off once at speed. Just bruises fortunately.

    Though confession time, my first bike was an MZ. Worst brakes, tires and electrics of any vehicle I have owned.
    Passed my m/cycle test on a 50cc (and 30mph) moped, then bought a 250! Haven't ridden a bike for 30 years, but apparently my licence is till valid.
    I passed on my MZ 125, then bought a CB175, Quite a nice Honda twin and great around London. The engine siezed in the end, then the Elsie.

    Tests were quite lax well into eighties, with no pursuit bike. My brother fell off on his test, but got back on, and the examiner was on foot and didn't see him. He passed.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,033
    If we're going there it was a Puch Maxi for me. Abandoned it in a Kensington Mews where it got dozens of parking tickets after I sold it.

    Finally gave up biking as a commuter when I was knocked off my Bandit (guy in front missed his turn and jammed on the brakes) on the way to hospital for a check up on the previous week's bike smash (taxi pulled out from a line of parked cars).
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Btw, I notice that Ladbrokes have cut the price on Tories <10% in the Euro Elections - down to 7/2. Hat-tip to whoever pointed out this bet when it was 12/1. Those that got on at that price can now hedge comfortably by backing 10/20% at 4/9.

    Thanks PBer, whoever you are.</p>

    ‘Twas I.

    Was only a fortnight ago, it seems like an age ago.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/14/why-im-taking-the-12-1-on-the-tories-polling-under-10-in-the-european-election/
    I disagreed with you on the basis that it looked like women were sticking with the Tories, but the Survation poll has lower support for the Tories from women than men.

    22% of women who say they are likely to vote are undecided, compared to 9% of men.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,587
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122394263763841024?s=20
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,629
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    Oh happy days!

    I acquired an Elsie like that once. I think I am too old to wheelie away from the lights now...
    Crashed one of them as well. 1981 RD250LC in red/white. It was my first proper bike and would just do 100mph if I laid flat on the tank and seat with my feet hanging over the rear light.
    And all on L plates with no requirement for lessons. It's a wonder anyone survived.

    I only came off once at speed. Just bruises fortunately.

    Though confession time, my first bike was an MZ. Worst brakes, tires and electrics of any vehicle I have owned.
    My first moped was a Honda C50. It looked like it had been run over by a tank but was faster than any of the swanky new fake motor bikes that my richer friends parents had bought them for their 16th birthdays.Then there was a Fizz, then a few more death machines until I eventually traded up to a Suzuki PE175 at the age of 17 and had far too many narrow escapes. As you say, it's a wonder more of us didn't meet the reaper. Luckily at 18 I managed to pass my driving test and acquired a Vauxhall Viva!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,587
    If Bercow does go then my MP Eleanor Paint has a good chance to succeed him
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122394263763841024?s=20

    Seems like basing your electoral chances on courting the hard Brexit vote is not a fantastic proposition for Ruth Davidson's No To a Second Referendum Party.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    If Bercow does go then my MP Eleanor Paint has a good chance to succeed him

    Eleanor Laing? Would it not be a Labour MP next? Alternation is not a firm convention but given the government's non-existent majority, surely CCHQ will not want to lose another from its own side.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,587
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1122377404293500928?s=21

    Given Conservative Home has 62% of Tory members voting Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections there would not be many activists left if CCHQ does that

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/our-survey-three-out-of-five-party-members-will-vote-for-the-brexit-party-in-european-elections.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,587
    edited April 2019
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122394263763841024?s=20

    Seems like basing your electoral chances on courting the hard Brexit vote is not a fantastic proposition for Ruth Davidson's No To a Second Referendum Party.
    Tories plus Brexit Party are on 27% in Scotland in that poll and the SNP are on 38%, the Tories got 28.6% in Scotland at the 2017 general election and the SNP 36.9% so even in Scotland the movement is almost all Tory to Brexit Party not Tory to SNP, and to a lesser extent Labour to CUK not Labour to SNP
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,587
    edited April 2019
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Bercow does go then my MP Eleanor Paint has a good chance to succeed him

    Eleanor Laing? Would it not be a Labour MP next? Alternation is not a firm convention but given the government's non-existent majority, surely CCHQ will not want to lose another from its own side.
    Laing is already Deputy Speaker so cannot vote for the government anyway at the moment.

    Bercow is an honorary Labour Speaker, most Tories wanted Sir George Young and before Bercow we had Michael Martin who was a Labour Speaker and before Martin Betty Boothroyd who was also a Labour Speaker.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,208
    OldKingCole said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    Oh happy days!

    I acquired an Elsie like that once. I think I am too old to wheelie away from the lights now...
    Crashed one of them as well. 1981 RD250LC in red/white. It was my first proper bike and would just do 100mph if I laid flat on the tank and seat with my feet hanging over the rear light.
    And all on L plates with no requirement for lessons. It's a wonder anyone survived.

    I only came off once at speed. Just bruises fortunately.

    Though confession time, my first bike was an MZ. Worst brakes, tires and electrics of any vehicle I have owned.
    Passed my m/cycle test on a 50cc (and 30mph) moped, then bought a 250! Haven't ridden a bike for 30 years, but apparently my licence is till valid.
    I passed mine on a 50cc moped too. At the test I couldn't get the engine to fire so I pedalled furiously round the course. I could see the tester hiding behind a parked car for the emergency stop so I just stopped pedalling. Remarkably I passed the test.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,587
    MarqueeMark said:

    If we have an election in 2019, then that new Parliament will want a new Speaker.

    And I see an election this year as still the likeliest way to break the Westminster log-jam.

    May will not budge until she can be forced out in December and will not go until she gets her Deal through and the Tories will not back a general election under May.

    So I cannot see a general election until next year at the earliest
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1122377404293500928?s=21

    Given Conservative Home has 62% of Tory members voting Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections there would not be many activists left if CCHQ does that

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/our-survey-three-out-of-five-party-members-will-vote-for-the-brexit-party-in-european-elections.html
    With Tories in open revolt, the Conservative Party board has issued a warning that anyone campaigning for the Brexit Party will be kicked out.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8955334/conservative-party-nigel-farage-brexit-threat/

    The Sun's twitter click-bait team changed "campaigning" to backing.

    Small earthquake stuff. More significant is this if it comes to anything: A source close to Farage confirmed: “Nigel is very smug at the moment and is 100 per cent sure that there is at least one high-profile defection in the pipeline with others likely to follow.”
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,208
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122394263763841024?s=20

    Putting that into the Scottish EMA gives two extra seats to the SNP on 43. One seat each from Con and Lab.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,644
    Foxy said:

    Trump talking about neonatal palliative care at a MAGA rally in Wisconsin.

    https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1122317554582794240?s=19

    Good question. Mainly because the GOP protects him.

    We seem to be in age where parties and individuals within them are prepared to go to any lengths to secure advantage, and damn the national interest. Sickening.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,150
    Barnesian said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    Oh happy days!

    I acquired an Elsie like that once. I think I am too old to wheelie away from the lights now...
    Crashed one of them as well. 1981 RD250LC in red/white. It was my first proper bike and would just do 100mph if I laid flat on the tank and seat with my feet hanging over the rear light.
    And all on L plates with no requirement for lessons. It's a wonder anyone survived.

    I only came off once at speed. Just bruises fortunately.

    Though confession time, my first bike was an MZ. Worst brakes, tires and electrics of any vehicle I have owned.
    Passed my m/cycle test on a 50cc (and 30mph) moped, then bought a 250! Haven't ridden a bike for 30 years, but apparently my licence is till valid.
    I passed mine on a 50cc moped too. At the test I couldn't get the engine to fire so I pedalled furiously round the course. I could see the tester hiding behind a parked car for the emergency stop so I just stopped pedalling. Remarkably I passed the test.
    Had to have several goes at my moped test, but passed car one first time. Woman suddenly turned and pushed a pram out into the road in front of me, admittedly on a zebra crossing. I was right on top of the crossing but slammed on everything and stopped. Stalled the car, but started again, drove round the corner and stopped to see if the examiner, who had, pre-seat belts hit his head on the windscreen if he was OK. Yes he said; back to the centre, please. All he said afterwards was 'You've passed' signed the form and got out of the car.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,587
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1122377404293500928?s=21

    Given Conservative Home has 62% of Tory members voting Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections there would not be many activists left if CCHQ does that

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/our-survey-three-out-of-five-party-members-will-vote-for-the-brexit-party-in-european-elections.html
    With Tories in open revolt, the Conservative Party board has issued a warning that anyone campaigning for the Brexit Party will be kicked out.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8955334/conservative-party-nigel-farage-brexit-threat/

    The Sun's twitter click-bait team changed "campaigning" to backing.

    Small earthquake stuff. More significant is this if it comes to anything: A source close to Farage confirmed: “Nigel is very smug at the moment and is 100 per cent sure that there is at least one high-profile defection in the pipeline with others likely to follow.”
    Ann Widdecombe has already defected, others may follow.

    The Tories are already heading for their lowest voteshare in a national election in history in the European Parliament elections next month and it could go lower still if more Tory Leavers vote Brexit Party.

    We may get an indication of what voteshare a Tory Party just left with Remainers would get
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,150
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122394263763841024?s=20

    Putting that into the Scottish EMA gives two extra seats to the SNP on 43. One seat each from Con and Lab.
    So Scottish Remain somewhere north of 60%?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1122377404293500928?s=21

    Given Conservative Home has 62% of Tory members voting Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections there would not be many activists left if CCHQ does that

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/our-survey-three-out-of-five-party-members-will-vote-for-the-brexit-party-in-european-elections.html
    With Tories in open revolt, the Conservative Party board has issued a warning that anyone campaigning for the Brexit Party will be kicked out.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8955334/conservative-party-nigel-farage-brexit-threat/

    The Sun's twitter click-bait team changed "campaigning" to backing.

    Small earthquake stuff. More significant is this if it comes to anything: A source close to Farage confirmed: “Nigel is very smug at the moment and is 100 per cent sure that there is at least one high-profile defection in the pipeline with others likely to follow.”
    If it’s a “high” profile defection it can’t be Francois for obvious reasons
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,587
    edited April 2019
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122394263763841024?s=20

    Putting that into the Scottish EMA gives two extra seats to the SNP on 43. One seat each from Con and Lab.
    Not that great for the SNP then, still closer to 2017 than 2015
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,644
    Rentoul:

    "I don’t think it is outlandish to predict that Farage’s outfit could overtake the Tories in the opinion polls for the next general election. Instead of people talking about how hard it is for Change UK to break through in the “first past the post” voting system, they will be discussing where the tipping point between the Tories and the Brexit Party might be."

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,644
    It will be one of the ironies of history that May's endless attempts to stop her party splitting over EU, actually just destroys them as an electoral force instead.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,014
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    Oh happy days!

    I acquired an Elsie like that once. I think I am too old to wheelie away from the lights now...
    Crashed one of them as well. 1981 RD250LC in red/white. It was my first proper bike and would just do 100mph if I laid flat on the tank and seat with my feet hanging over the rear light.
    And all on L plates with no requirement for lessons. It's a wonder anyone survived.

    I only came off once at speed. Just bruises fortunately.

    Though confession time, my first bike was an MZ. Worst brakes, tires and electrics of any vehicle I have owned.
    My first moped was a Honda C50. It looked like it had been run over by a tank but was faster than any of the swanky new fake motor bikes that my richer friends parents had bought them for their 16th birthdays.Then there was a Fizz, then a few more death machines until I eventually traded up to a Suzuki PE175 at the age of 17 and had far too many narrow escapes. As you say, it's a wonder more of us didn't meet the reaper. Luckily at 18 I managed to pass my driving test and acquired a Vauxhall Viva!
    It was working in main A and E that cured my love of motorcycles. I remember one or two very vividly indeed, amongst the various ghosts haunting me over the decades.

    The pure pleasure of biking on the open road on a naked bike has never left me though. The only thing that has come close has been downhill skiing on black runs. That risk of major injury is part of the pleasure. That sweet taste of immediate danger that @Dura_Ace still seems to crave.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,644
    nichomar said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1122377404293500928?s=21

    Given Conservative Home has 62% of Tory members voting Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections there would not be many activists left if CCHQ does that

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/our-survey-three-out-of-five-party-members-will-vote-for-the-brexit-party-in-european-elections.html
    With Tories in open revolt, the Conservative Party board has issued a warning that anyone campaigning for the Brexit Party will be kicked out.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8955334/conservative-party-nigel-farage-brexit-threat/

    The Sun's twitter click-bait team changed "campaigning" to backing.

    Small earthquake stuff. More significant is this if it comes to anything: A source close to Farage confirmed: “Nigel is very smug at the moment and is 100 per cent sure that there is at least one high-profile defection in the pipeline with others likely to follow.”
    If it’s a “high” profile defection it can’t be Francois for obvious reasons
    Boris?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,150
    rottenborough said:

    It will be one of the ironies of history that May's endless attempts to stop her party splitting over EU, actually just destroys them as an electoral force instead.

    Short-term solutions to long-term problems usually don't work.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Foxy said:

    Trump talking about neonatal palliative care at a MAGA rally in Wisconsin.

    https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1122317554582794240?s=19

    I’m not sure I understand your problem? He’s paraphrasing what some Democratic politicians have said they want to do.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,587
    Poll for TSE

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1122414185164546049?s=20
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,014
    brokenwheel said:

    Foxy said:

    Trump talking about neonatal palliative care at a MAGA rally in Wisconsin.

    https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1122317554582794240?s=19

    I’m not sure I understand your problem? He’s paraphrasing what some Democratic politicians have said they want to do.
    He is deliberately* confusing neonatal pallative care, for those born with fatal conditions with late term abortion.

    Reason has departed American politics, on both sides, and is edging towards the door here too.

    *either that or he is too thick to understand the difference.
This discussion has been closed.