Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will John Bercow leave his job as Speaker in 2019?

Earlier on this month I wrote a piece about the plans of Tory Leavers to try and oust John Bercow this week just gone, accurately I predicted they wouldn’t have the numbers to oust Speaker Bercow.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I suppose it is important to have a candidate representing the 20th century along with those more interested in modern day America.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/19/john-bercow-remain-speaker-brexit-bias
But it's only convention. If Bercow were removed from his position, there's nothing to force him to step down as an MP.
So, assuming that Bercow was replaced by a reliable Leaver, well, the government's majority would likely be cut by two as Bercow would now be an opposition MP.
Ultimately, though, there is no majority to remove Bercow from the role of Speaker. If there was a majority, then there would also be a majority for a particular form of Brexit. So fretting about Bercow's role, or plotting his removal, or whatever, is nothing more than displacement activity.
And is there yet any actual intention to start one in Btrecon and Radnor? AFAIK at the moment it's all sound and fury, signifying nothing
F1: had betting thoughts yesterday but the markets took a while to awaken so 'll see what's what. Hopefully get the pre-race tosh up this morning, although I do have some stuff to do so it might be early afternoon... we'll see.
Easier than thinking, I suppose.
Is he best mates with TSE?
The petition has Corbyn’s backing:
https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-very-sad-at-political-demise-of-fiona-onasanya-as-he-calls-on-peterborough-voters-to-kick-mp-out-of-parliament-1-8906547
The money that was going toward a Tory victory looks rather more speculative now.
A better use of their time would be, ohhhhh, actually reading the Withdrawal Agreement. Or maybe actually, you know, delivering on Brexit.
Betting Post
Nothing quite like checking e-mail repeatedly, only for the one day you don't to actually get one...
Anyway, the pre-race ramble will be up fairly shortly. As usual, there are various betting musings. I've gone for a short odds bet, which isn't my typical modus operandi.
Backed under 15.5 finishers at 1.72.
There were a few other tempting bets (Hulkenberg DNF at 3, Alfa Romeo double score at 15, Leclerc/Verstappen to win at 7 and 13 respectively) but the nature of the circuit makes finding value a bit tricky as races can be quite chaotic.
The post-race ramble will probably be going up on Monday.
It is not his fault the Commons is deadlocked and has become a laughing stock, and it isn't his job to find a way round that. So he does get a pass on the current mess.
That said, after ten years it would seem sensible to have some change at the top. So if he does stay on, I think there is a risk he'll outstay his welcome.
I suggest that while you are correct up as far as the comma, it is, though, his job, as the chairman, as the representative of the members, 'to find a way round that'. So no, he shouldn't get a pass, although the behaviour of some Members makes that task exceedingly difficult.
The problem at this moment is there is no way out of this impasse. Either the ERG/DUP are going to have accept what they want is unreasonable and compromise, or ultra-Remainers are going to have to accept that what they want is impossible and compromise. Because both groups have yet to realise this, and between them they form a majority, we're deadlocked.
And I can't see how that's Bercow's fault or how he could resolve it.
Of course he may have already done so and the DUP in particular just said NO!!!
https://www.countytimes.co.uk/news/17600082.recall-petition-for-chris-davies-brecon-and-radnor-seat-to-open-on-may-9/
I have to say I don't think it serves the north and west of the constituency very well. But then, not many people live there.
And I see an election this year as still the likeliest way to break the Westminster log-jam.
The problem is, if he tries to get involved in a policy matter, he compromises his neutrality. Now, while I am aware there are people posting who will make remarks about 'that happened years ago,' if he is seen to be taking sides - either side - he is likely to entrench the other side and make progress less likely.
So yes, he can urge all sides to talk, but he cannot compel people to vote a particular way. From that point of view, he is not like a chairman, more like a moderator.
It's people living north of Rhayader and Knighton that may struggle. You would have thought the common sense solution to that would be to bend the rule on 'must be in the constituency' and open a book in Newtown.
Meantime, it is remarkable that Trump can find time to golf three times a week, but is happy to break a tradition going back to Truman...
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/26/trump-skip-national-teacher-of-the-year-award-ceremony-1386862
I can’t decide if this is part of a viable strategy, or a cunning plan of Baldrick proportions.
(edit) I see this isn’t actually his campaign position, but a reflection on his legislative record from the 90s.
It will be interesting to see how Biden addresses questions about marijuana and drug policy in general when put on stage alongside a crowd of other candidates that uniformly support legalization. Will he double down in his opposition or make vague promises not to crack down on legal cannabis states?...
I can't think of anything else that's so undermined my confidence in some of our representatives.
OK, I'll get me dressing gown.
Thanks PBer, whoever you are.
That might just push the headbangers into line. But given their extraordinary inability to understand basic concepts, they'd probably vote for the referendum in the belief it would lead to No Deal.
Or working as a Principal Examiner for AQA.
One of the two.
I acquired an Elsie like that once. I think I am too old to wheelie away from the lights now...
https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1122317554582794240?s=19
Main snag is as Marquee Mark says that an election could lead to a new Speaker. But I'm not clear how that will happen. May isn't going anywhere, and her party opponents apparently don't have the votes to force her out. An election called by May as party leader would be fun, but implausible.
Presumably bad election results will produce a rerun of:
1. Opponents say, "This must end!" and challenge May.
2. May says nothing.
3. The revolt fizzles.
4. May continues.
I only came off once at speed. Just bruises fortunately.
Though confession time, my first bike was an MZ. Worst brakes, tires and electrics of any vehicle I have owned.
Was only a fortnight ago, it seems like an age ago.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/14/why-im-taking-the-12-1-on-the-tories-polling-under-10-in-the-european-election/
Tests were quite lax well into eighties, with no pursuit bike. My brother fell off on his test, but got back on, and the examiner was on foot and didn't see him. He passed.
Finally gave up biking as a commuter when I was knocked off my Bandit (guy in front missed his turn and jammed on the brakes) on the way to hospital for a check up on the previous week's bike smash (taxi pulled out from a line of parked cars).
22% of women who say they are likely to vote are undecided, compared to 9% of men.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/our-survey-three-out-of-five-party-members-will-vote-for-the-brexit-party-in-european-elections.html
Bercow is an honorary Labour Speaker, most Tories wanted Sir George Young and before Bercow we had Michael Martin who was a Labour Speaker and before Martin Betty Boothroyd who was also a Labour Speaker.
So I cannot see a general election until next year at the earliest
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8955334/conservative-party-nigel-farage-brexit-threat/
The Sun's twitter click-bait team changed "campaigning" to backing.
Small earthquake stuff. More significant is this if it comes to anything: A source close to Farage confirmed: “Nigel is very smug at the moment and is 100 per cent sure that there is at least one high-profile defection in the pipeline with others likely to follow.”
We seem to be in age where parties and individuals within them are prepared to go to any lengths to secure advantage, and damn the national interest. Sickening.
The Tories are already heading for their lowest voteshare in a national election in history in the European Parliament elections next month and it could go lower still if more Tory Leavers vote Brexit Party.
We may get an indication of what voteshare a Tory Party just left with Remainers would get
"I don’t think it is outlandish to predict that Farage’s outfit could overtake the Tories in the opinion polls for the next general election. Instead of people talking about how hard it is for Change UK to break through in the “first past the post” voting system, they will be discussing where the tipping point between the Tories and the Brexit Party might be."
The pure pleasure of biking on the open road on a naked bike has never left me though. The only thing that has come close has been downhill skiing on black runs. That risk of major injury is part of the pleasure. That sweet taste of immediate danger that @Dura_Ace still seems to crave.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1122414185164546049?s=20
Reason has departed American politics, on both sides, and is edging towards the door here too.
*either that or he is too thick to understand the difference.