politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bye-bye by-elections? Part 2. MPs who resigned their seats and
Comments
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And to be fair OGH may well be right. We know polling can get it significantly wrong and the assumption that that will always be overstating Remain support is, I believe, dangerous for Leavers. The only thing that we can really count on are actual results.Sean_F said:
Awful for Change UK. 4% would probably not even win them a seat in the South East.isam said:Stealthy TIGgers
https://twitter.com/survation/status/1122158151623675905?s=21
This is the first poll to give the pro-Brexit parties 50%, but OGH has linked to a thread by Martin Boon, which warns of the possibility that support for the Brexit Party could be a bit overstated.0 -
But they didn't vote against the six tests. So the timescale is completely unchanged.0
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Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right0 -
If Labour finish first with an increased share of the vote compared to 2014 Miliband style Labour, Corbyn will claim his approach is vindicated.Sean_F said:On Survation's numbers, I'd make the result:-
Labour 25, Brexit 22, Conservative 11, UKIP 5, Lib Dem 4, SNP 2, Plaid 1.
On Opinium's,
Labour 26, Brexit 24, Conservative 9, SNP 3, Lib Dem 2, Change 2, Green 2, UKIP 1, Plaid 1.0 -
Looking back to polls taken at a similar time in 2014 there's a couple of consistent differences;
- Labour VI skews younger than it used to according to subsamples.
- Older voters are much less likely to say they are certain to vote now than in 2014, by between 10-20%. In 2014 Older voters grew more certain as polling day approached.
- In some cases younger voters say they're more likely to vote than at a similar point 5 years ago.
0 - Labour VI skews younger than it used to according to subsamples.
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Yes, agreed.Richard_Tyndall said:
And to be fair OGH may well be right. We know polling can get it significantly wrong and the assumption that that will always be overstating Remain support is, I believe, dangerous for Leavers. The only thing that we can really count on are actual results.Sean_F said:
Awful for Change UK. 4% would probably not even win them a seat in the South East.isam said:Stealthy TIGgers
https://twitter.com/survation/status/1122158151623675905?s=21
This is the first poll to give the pro-Brexit parties 50%, but OGH has linked to a thread by Martin Boon, which warns of the possibility that support for the Brexit Party could be a bit overstated.0 -
A counterfactual to Martin Boon's theory however is that Yougov were one of the few pollsters not to overstate UKIP at the last EP elections, and they've had TBP on 27% too.Sean_F said:
This is the first poll to give the pro-Brexit parties 50%, but OGH has linked to a thread by Martin Boon, which warns of the possibility that support for the Brexit Party could be a bit overstated.isam said:Stealthy TIGgers
https://twitter.com/survation/status/1122158151623675905?s=21
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Con + UKIP + Brexit = 50%Theuniondivvie said:
Lab + LD + Green + ChangeUK = 43%
Which seems a bit strange given Remain is now well ahead of Leave!
I guess the answer is things are more complex than they might seem - in particular quite a lot of the Con vote is presumably Remain.0 -
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely0 -
Looking at the changes since 2014 is interesting. Con+UKIP are down by exactly as much as Brexit are up.MikeL said:
Con + UKIP + Brexit = 50%Theuniondivvie said:
Lab + LD + Green + ChangeUK = 43%
Which seems a bit strange given Remain is now well ahead of Leave!
I guess the answer is things are more complex than they might seem - in particular quite a lot of the Con vote is presumably Remain.
Looked at that way it seems very plausible.0 -
If only CUK had a better logo......0
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I think I'm going to wait for the results of both the local and Euro elections before deciding what's likely to happen.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely0 -
scraping the barrel completely now, how low can the Tories get.Scott_P said:0 -
Very wise but TM must be near the end of her tenureAndyJS said:
I think I'm going to wait for the results of both the local and Euro elections before deciding what's likely to happen.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely0 -
It's the sort of shenanigans that would make a more paranoid person than I want to see the CCTV footage near the Russian embassy...brendan16 said:
Presumably they have £ signs and a good private education behind them to be able to waste £30k. Won’t they all split the vote too?AndyJS said:Seven Climate Change candidates are standing in London, but they're each standing as an independent rather than as part of a combined ticket. This means they're paying a total of £35,000 in deposits instead of £5,000. They're also competing against the Greens.
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History now.Andrew said:
Which are extremely pro-USSR, down to supporting the invasion of Afghanistan, and whitewashing Stalin's genocides.TheJezziah said:
Although the main reason Milne disliked is his political views ....
In the present time it is Farage and Banks that are friendly with the Russians.
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We have been having crazy weather... cue for a song!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Very wise but TM must be near the end of her tenureAndyJS said:
I think I'm going to wait for the results of both the local and Euro elections before deciding what's likely to happen.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely0 -
I would have thought that much of the residual Tory vote is likely to be Remain -inclined - with Leavers having largely switched to Brexit Party.0
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According to Rentoul it is older Leavers who are being over quota very quickly.thecommissioner said:
I would have thought that the long running opposition to leave and the demographic associated with it (generally younger, wealthier, more likely to be net-connected) would have meant that remain was more likely to be overstated/over-represented.Sean_F said:
Awful for Change UK. 4% would probably not even win them a seat in the South East.isam said:Stealthy TIGgers
https://twitter.com/survation/status/1122158151623675905?s=21
This is the first poll to give the pro-Brexit parties 50%, but OGH has linked to a thread by Martin Boon, which warns of the possibility that support for the Brexit Party could be a bit overstated.0 -
That seems likely. A substantial proportion of Tory leavers have switched to Farage. But there will also be some leavers supporting Labour.MikeL said:
Con + UKIP + Brexit = 50%Theuniondivvie said:
Lab + LD + Green + ChangeUK = 43%
Which seems a bit strange given Remain is now well ahead of Leave!
I guess the answer is things are more complex than they might seem - in particular quite a lot of the Con vote is presumably Remain.0 -
The polls say rump Tory is about 50-50.justin124 said:I would have thought that much of the residual Tory vote is likely to be Remain -inclined - with Leavers having largely switched to Brexit Party.
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Support for Farage would be much diminished in any General Election - as evidenced by how UKIP performed in the 2014 EU elections compared with the 2015 GE less than a year later. As has often been the case with the LibDems in the past, much of their vote is 'easy come- easy go'.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely0 -
Bridge on the River Kwai is on TV.
A metaphor for Brexit...0 -
And tether one would have thought TBF.Big_G_NorthWales said:Very wise but TM must be near the end of her tenure
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Nah. There will still be many Leavers who won't support Farage or - more likely - do not support his position of a No Deal Brexit. Just as in the referendum itself it is very possible to think Farage is an idiot who should not be voted for but still support Leaving the EU.justin124 said:I would have thought that much of the residual Tory vote is likely to be Remain -inclined - with Leavers having largely switched to Brexit Party.
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I would expect under Boris the vote would return to the conservatives.justin124 said:
Support for Farage would be much diminished in any General Election - as evidenced by how UKIP performed in the 2014 EU elections compared with the 2015 GE less than a year later. As has often been the case with the LibDems in the past, much of their vote is 'easy come- easy go'.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely0 -
Just come back from an afternoon campaigning for the local elections with IDS.
Interesting article again Sunil. I think MPs will only resign and cause by elections if they have another job to go to or they think they will win0 -
Provided we have left the EU by the next general election, if not the Brexit Party surge will continue.justin124 said:
Support for Farage would be much diminished in any General Election - as evidenced by how UKIP performed in the 2014 EU elections compared with the 2015 GE less than a year later. As has often been the case with the LibDems in the past, much of their vote is 'easy come- easy go'.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
In 2015 it was Cameron's promise to hold an EUref which kept the UKIP vote down, even so UKIP got 12%, almost half the 27% they got in the EU Parliament elections
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How did it goHYUFD said:Just come back from an afternoon campaigning for the local elections with IDS.
Interesting article again Sunil. I think MPs will only resign and cause by elections if they have another job to go to or they think they will win0 -
Ishmael_Z said:
Katharine Stewart Murray is an interesting woman. Duchess of Atholl in her spare time, militant *opponent* of women's suffrage, first Scottish woman MP. The circumstances of her resigning were: "She resigned the Conservative Whip first in 1935 over the India Bill and the "national-socialist tendency" of the government's domestic policy. Resuming the Whip, she resigned it again in 1938 in opposition to Neville Chamberlain's policy of appeasement of Adolf Hitler and to the Anglo-Italian agreement. According to her biography, A Working Partnership she was then deselected by her local party. She took Stewardship of the Chiltern Hundreds on 28 November 1938. She stood unsuccessfully in the subsequent by-election as an Independent candidate."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katharine_Stewart-Murray,_Duchess_of_Atholl
Interesting article thanks Sunil
You're welcome! Would have replied earlier if I weren't at the Epping Ongar Diesel Gala!GIN1138 said:Nice to see Sunil fulfilling his destiny and taking his rightful place at OGHs side.
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Glad to see you have seen the light Big G, though I think the WA will still get through, eventually, before May goes by the end of the year, probably with either the PD amended or Barnier and Varadkar agreeing some technical solution compromise on the backstopBig_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely0 -
European Parliament voting intention polls are silly.0
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I think I preferred Tobes when he was tweeting about wanking over starving children on the telly.
https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/11221869765417246740 -
Hang on, OGH missed out the last four paragraphs of my article!
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Not seen 'the light' as that would indicate I am converted which I am not. However, pragmatism and instinct have been my byword throughout my life and it does look increasingly likelyHYUFD said:
Glad to see you have seen the light Big G, though I think the WA will still get through, eventually, before May goes by the end of the year, probably with either the PD amended or Barnier and Varadkar agreeing some technical solution compromise on the backstopBig_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely0 -
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general electionAlastairMeeks said:0 -
Chuka is not leader yet, Heidi Allen is, if Allen falls flat on her face in the Euros Chuka can take over once we have a Corbyn v Boris general election when it will be more fertile ground for CUK.GIN1138 said:0 -
There are still a lot of us Leavers still with the Tories, at least for General Elections. The collapse will only truly happen if they stick with May or replace her with another Remainer.justin124 said:I would have thought that much of the residual Tory vote is likely to be Remain -inclined - with Leavers having largely switched to Brexit Party.
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But they give us something to talk aboutJonathan said:European Parliament voting intention polls are silly.
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Farage, Banks, Milne, Murray, Johnson: they're all Kremlin stooges.Foxy said:
History now.Andrew said:
Which are extremely pro-USSR, down to supporting the invasion of Afghanistan, and whitewashing Stalin's genocides.TheJezziah said:
Although the main reason Milne disliked is his political views ....
In the present time it is Farage and Banks that are friendly with the Russians.
Scum.
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Alright, we won the ward by just 33 votes last year against the LDs and it is still 50-50 this yearBig_G_NorthWales said:
How did it goHYUFD said:Just come back from an afternoon campaigning for the local elections with IDS.
Interesting article again Sunil. I think MPs will only resign and cause by elections if they have another job to go to or they think they will win0 -
Here are the missing four paragraphs, leading on directly from Leslie Haden-Guest's story:
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
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Thank youHYUFD said:
Alright, we won the ward by just 33 votes last year against the LDs and it is still 50-50 this yearBig_G_NorthWales said:
How did it goHYUFD said:Just come back from an afternoon campaigning for the local elections with IDS.
Interesting article again Sunil. I think MPs will only resign and cause by elections if they have another job to go to or they think they will win0 -
IDS is a fellow Scot by birth Malc G, he was born in Edinburghmalcolmg said:
Commiserations on your painHYUFD said:Just come back from an afternoon campaigning for the local elections with IDS.
Interesting article again Sunil. I think MPs will only resign and cause by elections if they have another job to go to or they think they will win0 -
Sensible, the key to the next general election is now whether Brexit Party voters go back to the Tories or not, especially with Labour only on 30-35% at bestBig_G_NorthWales said:
Not seen 'the light' as that would indicate I am converted which I am not. However, pragmatism and instinct have been my byword throughout my life and it does look increasingly likelyHYUFD said:
Glad to see you have seen the light Big G, though I think the WA will still get through, eventually, before May goes by the end of the year, probably with either the PD amended or Barnier and Varadkar agreeing some technical solution compromise on the backstopBig_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely0 -
Not so much easy go, but horses for courses. LDs and Kippers get higher votes in Locals and Euros respectivly, where their core vote gets a good share of a lower turnout.justin124 said:
Support for Farage would be much diminished in any General Election - as evidenced by how UKIP performed in the 2014 EU elections compared with the 2015 GE less than a year later. As has often been the case with the LibDems in the past, much of their vote is 'easy come- easy go'.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Broadly 2015 GE had twice the turnout of 2014 Euros. The Kipper share fell by 50% but the number of votes was similar.0 -
I agreeHYUFD said:
Sensible, the key to the next general election is now whether Brexit Party voters go back to the Tories or not, especially with Labour only on 30-35% at bestBig_G_NorthWales said:
Not seen 'the light' as that would indicate I am converted which I am not. However, pragmatism and instinct have been my byword throughout my life and it does look increasingly likelyHYUFD said:
Glad to see you have seen the light Big G, though I think the WA will still get through, eventually, before May goes by the end of the year, probably with either the PD amended or Barnier and Varadkar agreeing some technical solution compromise on the backstopBig_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely0 -
Despite brexit or because of it?isam said:
We have been having crazy weather... cue for a song!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Very wise but TM must be near the end of her tenureAndyJS said:
I think I'm going to wait for the results of both the local and Euro elections before deciding what's likely to happen.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely0 -
Though Boris becoming leader would be just the filip that CHUK need. Their destiny is as a home for former Tory Remainers, a not insignificant demographic, 35% of the 2017 GE Tory vote.HYUFD said:
Sensible, the key to the next general election is now whether Brexit Party voters go back to the Tories or not, especially with Labour only on 30-35% at bestBig_G_NorthWales said:
Not seen 'the light' as that would indicate I am converted which I am not. However, pragmatism and instinct have been my byword throughout my life and it does look increasingly likelyHYUFD said:
Glad to see you have seen the light Big G, though I think the WA will still get through, eventually, before May goes by the end of the year, probably with either the PD amended or Barnier and Varadkar agreeing some technical solution compromise on the backstopBig_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely0 -
It depends. When TM stands down the subsequent leadership race will involve upto a dozen candidates and how they perform on tv and in the hustings will be vital to the winning candidate. If Boris wins both the mp selection and the membership I would expect the party to reunite to defeat CorbynFoxy said:
Though Boris becoming leader would be just the filip that CHUK need. Their destiny is as a home for former Tory Remainers, a not insignificant demographic, 35% of the 2017 GE Tory vote.HYUFD said:
Sensible, the key to the next general election is now whether Brexit Party voters go back to the Tories or not, especially with Labour only on 30-35% at bestBig_G_NorthWales said:
Not seen 'the light' as that would indicate I am converted which I am not. However, pragmatism and instinct have been my byword throughout my life and it does look increasingly likelyHYUFD said:
Glad to see you have seen the light Big G, though I think the WA will still get through, eventually, before May goes by the end of the year, probably with either the PD amended or Barnier and Varadkar agreeing some technical solution compromise on the backstopBig_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely0 -
Not only do we now have a crap MP who’s world understanding is close to zero but we’ve now been relegated to the national league!0
-
don't bloody start that: British officer loses sense of allegiance and cooperates with evil empire with habit of backing grandiose construction projects, till plucky Lieut Farage RM parachutes in to save the day.Scott_P said:Bridge on the River Kwai is on TV.
A metaphor for Brexit...0 -
I disagree there and do believe that only a minority of voters will see Brexit as the key issue at a General Election. Cameron's commitment to a Referendum had already been made by the time of the 2014 EU elections but still failed to prevent a strong UKIP showing. Very little doubt their support will fall back sharply at any GE - whatever happens re-Brexit - as already evidenced by a much lower vote share in polls in response to such a question.HYUFD said:
Provided we have left the EU by the next general election, if not the Brexit Party surge will continue.justin124 said:
Support for Farage would be much diminished in any General Election - as evidenced by how UKIP performed in the 2014 EU elections compared with the 2015 GE less than a year later. As has often been the case with the LibDems in the past, much of their vote is 'easy come- easy go'.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
In 2015 it was Cameron's promise to hold an EUref which kept the UKIP vote down, even so UKIP got 12%, almost half the 27% they got in the EU Parliament elections0 -
-
And almost the same number of actual votesHYUFD said:
Provided we have left the EU by the next general election, if not the Brexit Party surge will continue.justin124 said:
Support for Farage would be much diminished in any General Election - as evidenced by how UKIP performed in the 2014 EU elections compared with the 2015 GE less than a year later. As has often been the case with the LibDems in the past, much of their vote is 'easy come- easy go'.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
In 2015 it was Cameron's promise to hold an EUref which kept the UKIP vote down, even so UKIP got 12%, almost half the 27% they got in the EU Parliament elections0 -
<>OGH missed off four paragraphs of my article! (reproduced upthread)kle4 said:I require even more stats - get to it Dr Prasannan
EDIT - OGH has fixed it just now!!0 -
I would expect the residual Tory vote for any EU election to be more Remain-inclined.JackJack said:
There are still a lot of us Leavers still with the Tories, at least for General Elections. The collapse will only truly happen if they stick with May or replace her with another Remainer.justin124 said:I would have thought that much of the residual Tory vote is likely to be Remain -inclined - with Leavers having largely switched to Brexit Party.
0 -
yes but a poor politician, shows how poor the system is that he has survived. we really have the worst politicians of any developed country.HYUFD said:
IDS is a fellow Scot by birth Malc G, he was born in Edinburghmalcolmg said:
Commiserations on your painHYUFD said:Just come back from an afternoon campaigning for the local elections with IDS.
Interesting article again Sunil. I think MPs will only resign and cause by elections if they have another job to go to or they think they will win0 -
It seems obvious to me that there would be a selection bias. MPs who are confident of being re-elected are more likely to trigger by-elections than those not confident.Sunil_Prasannan said:So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
So you can't use the results of those elections to judge how likely it is in general for an MP to be re-elected (unless you're explicitly assuming that they will only call such a by-election because they have independently established that they have a good chance of being re-elected, but in that case the statistics are meaningless as the assumption is doing all the work).0 -
Proof that Scotland is entirely capable of producing its own knaves and fools.HYUFD said:
IDS is a fellow Scot by birth Malc G, he was born in Edinburghmalcolmg said:
Commiserations on your painHYUFD said:Just come back from an afternoon campaigning for the local elections with IDS.
Interesting article again Sunil. I think MPs will only resign and cause by elections if they have another job to go to or they think they will win0 -
You mean “When Allen fails...” She is very low calibre as a politician and has no policy platform to differentiate her new party from the LibDems. Given what she has said about the Tories, she’ll be more hated than Reckless. At least he had the decency to trigger a by-election when he left.HYUFD said:
Chuka is not leader yet, Heidi Allen is, if Allen falls flat on her face in the Euros Chuka can take over once we have a Corbyn v Boris general election when it will be more fertile ground for CUK.GIN1138 said:0 -
HYUFD said:
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general electionAlastairMeeks said:
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.0 -
Thanks, Sunil - interesting historical perspective there!
The polls are encouragingly similar, and oddly not all that different to the last Euros - the Brexit Party has eaten most of UKIP, Labour is marginally up, ChUK has split the centrist vote. The only big change is the Tories losing a third of their voters to Brexit/UKIP. That reflects the fact that the Tories have a lot of people who really care about achieving Brexit, and Labour doesn't. Labour has a lot of people who care about defeating Brexit, but so far not enough to actually change party in significant numbers, mainly I think because they aren't single-issue voters as the Brexiteers have become.0 -
William Jowitt stood for a different seat in 1931 as a National Labour candidate, so ran for three different parties in the space of two years. Later rejoined Labour and became Lord Chancellor.Sunil_Prasannan said:Here are the missing four paragraphs, leading on directly from Leslie Haden-Guest's story:
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.0 -
Indeed, the Brexit Party hitting the Tories more than Labour, CUK hitting both the Tories and Labour equallyNickPalmer said:Thanks, Sunil - interesting historical perspective there!
The polls are encouragingly similar, and oddly not all that different to the last Euros - the Brexit Party has eaten most of UKIP, Labour is marginally up, ChUK has split the centrist vote. The only big change is the Tories losing a third of their voters to Brexit/UKIP. That reflects the fact that the Tories have a lot of people who really care about achieving Brexit, and Labour doesn't. Labour has a lot of people who care about defeating Brexit, but so far not enough to actually change party in significant numbers, mainly I think because they aren't single-issue voters as the Brexiteers have become.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1122158569346994176?s=200 -
Farage has no policy platform for a GE. Even when he led UKIP, it was pretty much a one trick pony on immigration. Still surprised Carswell joined. The Brexit Party May have a role as protest vote at a GE but that’s about it.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nah. There will still be many Leavers who won't support Farage or - more likely - do not support his position of a No Deal Brexit. Just as in the referendum itself it is very possible to think Farage is an idiot who should not be voted for but still support Leaving the EU.justin124 said:I would have thought that much of the residual Tory vote is likely to be Remain -inclined - with Leavers having largely switched to Brexit Party.
0 -
I worked with a guy who, in a weird echo of the film, collapsed with pleurasy - and fell over the Bridge over the River Kwai.Scott_P said:Bridge on the River Kwai is on TV.
A metaphor for Brexit...
He was in hopsital in Thailand several weeks. He spoke very highly of Thai nurses......0 -
A mathematical analysis that predicts the Tories rebranding as the Little England party will cost them more votes than they won as Cameroons.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1122207770365788160
I, for one, am shocked...0 -
The polling as below actually shows CUK hitting Labour as much as the Tories. The Brexit Party though is mainly taking ToriesFoxy said:
Though Boris becoming leader would be just the filip that CHUK need. Their destiny is as a home for former Tory Remainers, a not insignificant demographic, 35% of the 2017 GE Tory vote.HYUFD said:
Sensible, the key to the next general election is now whether Brexit Party voters go back to the Tories or not, especially with Labour only on 30-35% at bestBig_G_NorthWales said:
Not seen 'the light' as that would indicate I am converted which I am not. However, pragmatism and instinct have been my byword throughout my life and it does look increasingly likelyHYUFD said:
Glad to see you have seen the light Big G, though I think the WA will still get through, eventually, before May goes by the end of the year, probably with either the PD amended or Barnier and Varadkar agreeing some technical solution compromise on the backstopBig_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely0 -
Only if we leave the EU and the Tories have a Brexiteer leading them, if not the Brexit Party will still be polling highly from angry Leaversjustin124 said:
I disagree there and do believe that only a minority of voters will see Brexit as the key issue at a General Election. Cameron's commitment to a Referendum had already been made by the time of the 2014 EU elections but still failed to prevent a strong UKIP showing. Very little doubt their support will fall back sharply at any GE - whatever happens re-Brexit - as already evidenced by a much lower vote share in polls in response to such a question.HYUFD said:
Provided we have left the EU by the next general election, if not the Brexit Party surge will continue.justin124 said:
Support for Farage would be much diminished in any General Election - as evidenced by how UKIP performed in the 2014 EU elections compared with the 2015 GE less than a year later. As has often been the case with the LibDems in the past, much of their vote is 'easy come- easy go'.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
In 2015 it was Cameron's promise to hold an EUref which kept the UKIP vote down, even so UKIP got 12%, almost half the 27% they got in the EU Parliament elections
0 -
Cameron's referendum didn't change votes at the Euro election as UKIP support was widely seen as a way to keep the Tories honest. It definitely suppressed the UKIP vote in 2015. Just as May's support for a hard Brexit suppressed it further in 2017.justin124 said:
I disagree there and do believe that only a minority of voters will see Brexit as the key issue at a General Election. Cameron's commitment to a Referendum had already been made by the time of the 2014 EU elections but still failed to prevent a strong UKIP showing. Very little doubt their support will fall back sharply at any GE - whatever happens re-Brexit - as already evidenced by a much lower vote share in polls in response to such a question.HYUFD said:
Provided we have left the EU by the next general election, if not the Brexit Party surge will continue.justin124 said:
Support for Farage would be much diminished in any General Election - as evidenced by how UKIP performed in the 2014 EU elections compared with the 2015 GE less than a year later. As has often been the case with the LibDems in the past, much of their vote is 'easy come- easy go'.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.AndyJS said:
Why have you changed your mind?Big_G_NorthWales said:How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
In 2015 it was Cameron's promise to hold an EUref which kept the UKIP vote down, even so UKIP got 12%, almost half the 27% they got in the EU Parliament elections
The reality is that EU integration just got so extensive that most of the right wing vote now opposes EU membership. If the Tory Party won't take account of that, they will be replaced by a party that does.0 -
Which is why the Tories need Boris or Raab to replace MayAmpfieldAndy said:HYUFD said:
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general electionAlastairMeeks said:
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.0 -
-
Unless they happen to decide to stay in government.HYUFD said:
Which is why the Tories need Boris or Raab to replace MayAmpfieldAndy said:HYUFD said:
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general electionAlastairMeeks said:
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.0 -
Raab makes so much more sense than Boris, given he is capable of working hard. McVey or Mordaunt also work.HYUFD said:
Which is why the Tories need Boris or Raab to replace MayAmpfieldAndy said:HYUFD said:
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general electionAlastairMeeks said:
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.0 -
Journalists are a group of people that have usually no practiced expertise. They talk to people nd report their views without bothering to study how things work themselves, which is so much harder.rcs1000 said:0 -
No argument, but can’t see too many Remainers staying in either scenario. Would prefer Raab to Boris myself. Gove would be a disaster but can’t be ruled out.HYUFD said:
Which is why the Tories need Boris or Raab to replace MayAmpfieldAndy said:HYUFD said:
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general electionAlastairMeeks said:
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.0 -
I think I may be unique on this board.Sunil_Prasannan said:Here are the missing four paragraphs, leading on directly from Leslie Haden-Guest's story:
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
I have voted for Dick Taverne.
Can anyone else claim that?0 -
The remaining Tory vote is now split roughly half and half between Remainers and Leavers.HYUFD said:
Indeed, the Brexit Party hitting the Tories more than Labour, CUK hitting both the Tories and Labour equallyNickPalmer said:Thanks, Sunil - interesting historical perspective there!
The polls are encouragingly similar, and oddly not all that different to the last Euros - the Brexit Party has eaten most of UKIP, Labour is marginally up, ChUK has split the centrist vote. The only big change is the Tories losing a third of their voters to Brexit/UKIP. That reflects the fact that the Tories have a lot of people who really care about achieving Brexit, and Labour doesn't. Labour has a lot of people who care about defeating Brexit, but so far not enough to actually change party in significant numbers, mainly I think because they aren't single-issue voters as the Brexiteers have become.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1122158569346994176?s=20
If any more Leavers move to the BP they could end up in single digits for the EU elections!0 -
You lived in Lincoln?rcs1000 said:
I think I may be unique on this board.Sunil_Prasannan said:Here are the missing four paragraphs, leading on directly from Leslie Haden-Guest's story:
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
I have voted for Dick Taverne.
Can anyone else claim that?0 -
Really? Blairite Labour spent well beyond their means (as did George Osborne).AmpfieldAndy said:HYUFD said:
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general electionAlastairMeeks said:
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
To his credit, Hammond has pursued broadly sensible macroeconomic policies, and done more than any government in the developed world to tackle multinationals diverting profits abroad.
From an economic governance perspective, he's the best Chancellor since Clarke, and you could make the case he's the best since Geoffrey Howe.0 -
'The mathematics of “Cameroonism” are clear. A generic political party, that has as its key target and archetypal voter a rural, affluent person could expect a natural demographic lead over its opposite (Labour) of 6.6 per cent (see technical note at the end of the article on how this is calculated). ' Fraser has Cameron Tories on 41%, Brexit Party/UKIP on 15%, Labour on 34%, TIG/LDs on 11%.Scott_P said:A mathematical analysis that predicts the Tories rebranding as the Little England party will cost them more votes than they won as Cameroons.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1122207770365788160
I, for one, am shocked...
Fraser then says 'If the Tories take Nick Timothy’s advice, both Ukip and the Brexit party would likely be subsumed by the Nationals.
The downside is that the Nationals would lose a huge number of affluent richer suburban voters to TIG, the Lib Dems and Labour. When you model this out, street by street, the Nationals lead over Labour would be 4.6 per cent – actually less than Cameroonism delivers'
He has Nationals on 41%, Labour on 36%, Liberals on 22%.
Yet he also says 'But when the party sits halfway between the two, it is massively disadvantaged. This is because it both fails to fully hollow out the Ukip and Brexit Party vote, and also faces the prospect of losing millions of votes to a well-organised, moderate centre force.'
He gives Mayite Tories 34%, Labour 33%, Brexit Party/UKIP 10%, TIG/LDs 22%
He also says PR ironically could see Labour take the lead but the right overall still in front.
Under AV or PR he has a similar situation to Australia with Labour on 45%, Cameroon Liberals on 33% and the Nationals on 23%
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/the-tories-are-stuck-in-the-middle-with-may-heres-what-they-should-do-next/0 -
So says the person who was convinced we'd have a trade agreement months ago...rcs1000 said:0 -
I was born in 1974, so I didn't get to vote for him in Lincoln.Sunil_Prasannan said:
You lived in Lincoln?rcs1000 said:
I think I may be unique on this board.Sunil_Prasannan said:Here are the missing four paragraphs, leading on directly from Leslie Haden-Guest's story:
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
I have voted for Dick Taverne.
Can anyone else claim that?0 -
Am I reading this correctly? Nick Timothy is now urging the Tories to rename themselves the National Party and go after the English rural redneck vote. I'm amazed he thinks such a demographic even exists, let alone be capable of winning you an election.Scott_P said:A mathematical analysis that predicts the Tories rebranding as the Little England party will cost them more votes than they won as Cameroons.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1122207770365788160
I, for one, am shocked...0 -
A trade agreement?williamglenn said:
So says the person who was convinced we'd have a trade agreement months ago...rcs1000 said:
Really? I look forward to you sharing my comment where I said that.0 -
Thanks, interesting factoids!houndtang said:
William Jowitt stood for a different seat in 1931 as a National Labour candidate, so ran for three different parties in the space of two years. Later rejoined Labour and became Lord Chancellor.Sunil_Prasannan said:Here are the missing four paragraphs, leading on directly from Leslie Haden-Guest's story:
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.0 -
No, but the first time I voted (1983 Darlington By-election) it was for Ossie O'Brien, who I think has the record for the shortest ever term as an MP. I voted for him again at the General Election, but on that occasion he lost to the Tory candidate, one Michael Fallon.rcs1000 said:
I think I may be unique on this board.Sunil_Prasannan said:Here are the missing four paragraphs, leading on directly from Leslie Haden-Guest's story:
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
I have voted for Dick Taverne.
Can anyone else claim that?0 -
They won't without Boris or Raab that is for certain, the Brexit Party will ensure thatIanB2 said:
Unless they happen to decide to stay in government.HYUFD said:
Which is why the Tories need Boris or Raab to replace MayAmpfieldAndy said:HYUFD said:
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general electionAlastairMeeks said:
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.0 -
Boris has charisma, Raab does notJackJack said:
Raab makes so much more sense than Boris, given he is capable of working hard. McVey or Mordaunt also work.HYUFD said:
Which is why the Tories need Boris or Raab to replace MayAmpfieldAndy said:HYUFD said:
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general electionAlastairMeeks said:
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.0 -
I was one of the youngest in my school year, and was the only person of my class not to be able to vote in the 1992 General Election.ThomasNashe said:
No, but the first time I voted (1983 Darlington By-election) it was for Ossie O'Brien, who I think has the record for the shortest ever term as an MP. I voted for him again at the General Election, but on that occasion he lost to the Tory candidate, one Michael Fallon.rcs1000 said:
I think I may be unique on this board.Sunil_Prasannan said:Here are the missing four paragraphs, leading on directly from Leslie Haden-Guest's story:
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
I have voted for Dick Taverne.
Can anyone else claim that?
0 -
Hammond has simply pursued Osborne’s policies - allowing Gov spending to escalate and funding it by frozen allowances and big hikes in indirect taxes. Neither did anything to attract inward investment, boost productivity or champion consumer rights and both have penalised savers to favour borrowers. Both were indistinguishable from Blairite Labour. Hammond has been negligent in combatting McDonnell’s Mickey Mouse economics and has given McDonnell free rein in peddling his economic illiteracy. He’s useless.rcs1000 said:
Really? Blairite Labour spent well beyond their means (as did George Osborne).AmpfieldAndy said:HYUFD said:
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general electionAlastairMeeks said:
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
To his credit, Hammond has pursued broadly sensible macroeconomic policies, and done more than any government in the developed world to tackle multinationals diverting profits abroad.
From an economic governance perspective, he's the best Chancellor since Clarke, and you could make the case he's the best since Geoffrey Howe.0 -
The rural redneck vote went Tory in 2005 and 2010, UKIP in 2015, Tory in 2017 and is now voting Brexit Party, it does existStark_Dawning said:
Am I reading this correctly? Nick Timothy is now urging the Tories to rename themselves the National Party and go after the English rural redneck vote. I'm amazed he thinks such a demographic even exists, let alone be capable of winning you an election.Scott_P said:A mathematical analysis that predicts the Tories rebranding as the Little England party will cost them more votes than they won as Cameroons.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1122207770365788160
I, for one, am shocked...0 -
That would be the same Nick Timothy who was one of May’s most toxic advisers and wrote the toxic 2017 Tory Manifesto. Best ignored.Stark_Dawning said:
Am I reading this correctly? Nick Timothy is now urging the Tories to rename themselves the National Party and go after the English rural redneck vote. I'm amazed he thinks such a demographic even exists, let alone be capable of winning you an election.Scott_P said:A mathematical analysis that predicts the Tories rebranding as the Little England party will cost them more votes than they won as Cameroons.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1122207770365788160
I, for one, am shocked...0 -
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/27/public-thinks-eu-referendum-was-a-bad-idea-says-poll?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0
