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"Pete butcher Jack" = Pete Buttigieg

Freggles said:

"Pete butcher Jack" = Pete Buttigieg

The wonders of autocorrect!

And sure, he's as ancient as methusalah.
But: He has a full head of hair (& Bernie looks even older than Biden!) and isn't morbidly obese, traits shared by his main rivals.

Pro_Rata said:

I'm a butcher Jack and I'm alright, I work all day and I sleep all night

I served with Pete butcher Jack. I knew Pete butcher Jack. Pete butcher Jack was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Pete butcher Jack.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

And sure, he's as ancient as methusalah.
But: He has a full head of hair (& Bernie looks even older than Biden!) and isn't morbidly obese, traits shared by his main rivals.

He'd be 82 at the end of his first term. That's going it a bit. Reagan was seen as old, and he was just 78 at the end of his second term - the same age Biden would be on inauguration.

Of course people are working and staying healthy for longer nowadays, but even so, 82 is a stretch by any standard - let alone 86 if he stayed to the end of a second term.

I think he might call it a day at the end of his first term, perhaps VP Buttigieg will take over. He looks spritely right now for a 76 year old man I think, but 4 years as president will age him so he'll be looking VERY old heading to his second term. I think his age is an issue, but not for this run.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

538 has a more measured assessment:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-joe-biden-could-win-the-2020-democratic-nomination/

I appreciate Mike is pretty dismissive of Biden's prospects, but it seems a mistake to write off any of the top half dozen candidates at this point.

Yes, Nate's article is a good balanced assessment. Clearly Biden has a goodish chance, but it's early days and there are significant obstacles.

An interesting question is who will be the top ten who make it to the first debate, and what metric will they apply to allocate spaces at the grownup version ?

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/440599-booker-fundraises-off-biden-announcement
The Democratic National Committee has said no more than 20 candidates will be allowed to attend debates with only 10 on stage at one time. Candidates must poll at 1 percent or more in three national or early primary state polls or receive contributions from at least 65,000 donors in 20 states to qualify....

Anyone outside that is probably toast.

kinabalu said:

Look he's too old and that's all there is to it. They have 35 as the youngest you can be, why don't they have a maximum too?

Suggest it is set at 1 year less than whatever Trump was when he was running in 2016.

Once bitten.

"it is set"... would mean a constitutional amendment.
The chances of any such thing happening in the foreseeable future is close to zero.

Eco-warrior glues her BREASTS to the road in most bizarre Extinction Rebellion stunt yet

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8934720/eco-warriors-glue-london-stock-exchange-climb-canary-wharf-train/

kinabalu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I served with Pete butcher Jack. I knew Pete butcher Jack. Pete butcher Jack was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Pete butcher Jack.

:-)

Hey hey PBJ, how many kids did you kill today?

'The only things I'm going to butcher are Trump's prospects for re-election...'

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

A very large Republican field led to Trump. I wonder if an outsider might do the same with a legion of Democrat candidates.

No.

Pro_Rata said:

I'm a butcher Jack and I'm alright, I work all day and I sleep all night

No-one pork barrels like Butcher Jack.

Richard_Nabavi said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Eco-warrior glues her BREASTS to the road in most bizarre Extinction Rebellion stunt yet

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8934720/eco-warriors-glue-london-stock-exchange-climb-canary-wharf-train/

What does she propose to do next?

Glue her buttocks to Buckingham Palace.

Stacey Abrams announcing as a VP running mate might well be a decent boost for whoever she goes for.
Probably not Harris..

Pulpstar said:

Stacey Abrams announcing as a VP running mate might well be a decent boost for whoever she goes for.
Probably not Harris..

I rather doubt any VP candidate will be announced until the convention, which unless someone runs away from the pack (in which case they would wait anyway) could well be contested.
Offering a VP slot would be all part of the negotiation at that point.

And Abrams has been pretty clear she's not going to play that game anyway. She'll possibly run herself, or more likely run for the Senate.

Expect a big announcement on Crossrail later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Main Board meeting right now.

It will still carry a lot of risk in it (opening date) before anyone asks.

Casino_Royale said:

Expect a big announcement on Crossrail later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Main Board meeting right now.

It will still carry a lot of risk in it (opening date) before anyone asks.

"Crossrail to open on Brexit Day"

Casino_Royale said:

Expect a big announcement on Crossrail later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Main Board meeting right now.

It will still carry a lot of risk in it (opening date) before anyone asks.

Crossrail and Brexit have much in common. Deadlines fixed years back keep getting pushed back!

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

Expect a big announcement on Crossrail later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Main Board meeting right now.

It will still carry a lot of risk in it (opening date) before anyone asks.

The nation trembles in anticipation. This is going to bigger than that Xmas when Ange left Dirty Den.

Ones for the kids that reference...

Casino_Royale said:

Expect a big announcement on Crossrail later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Main Board meeting right now.

It will still carry a lot of risk in it (opening date) before anyone asks.

My flat is two minutes walk from Tottenham Court Road tube station, so I'm super keen on it opening asap.

Pulpstar said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

538 has a more measured assessment:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-joe-biden-could-win-the-2020-democratic-nomination/

I appreciate Mike is pretty dismissive of Biden's prospects, but it seems a mistake to write off any of the top half dozen candidates at this point.

Yes, Nate's article is a good balanced assessment. Clearly Biden has a goodish chance, but it's early days and there are significant obstacles.

An interesting question is who will be the top ten who make it to the first debate, and what metric will they apply to allocate spaces at the grownup version ?

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/440599-booker-fundraises-off-biden-announcement
The Democratic National Committee has said no more than 20 candidates will be allowed to attend debates with only 10 on stage at one time. Candidates must poll at 1 percent or more in three national or early primary state polls or receive contributions from at least 65,000 donors in 20 states to qualify....

Anyone outside that is probably toast.

8 more or less certain to make it to the first debate :

Biden
Sanders
Buttigieg
Harris
Warren
O 'Rourke
Booker
Klobuchar

Then after 2 of:

-----------
Yang
Castro
Gillibrand
Hickenlooper
------------

I think perhaps Yang and Gillibrand.

What's happened to Hickenlooper? Seem to recall OGH was quite keen.

kle4 said:

SandyRentool said:

Cyclefree said:

U

SandyRentool said:

TOPPING said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

How far tolerant societies should tolerate the threat from the intolerant is one of the most pressing questions of our times. Only up to a point is I think the honest answer, and indeed the revealed preference of these societies. Where that point is depends on your tolerance to the threat and that in part depends on whether the threat is to you and your loved ones directly. "if you tolerate this, your children will be next" turned out to be prophetic, after all.

So you are saying, to take a couple of counter examples, someone to whom fox-hunting is a crucial part of their way of life (and there are many such people), or someone who holds deeply-held religious views which mean they disapprove of schools teaching their children about LBGT rights, should not be tolerant of the threat to their way of life from the intolerance of metropolitan liberals?

Be.

The exhaustive Burns Report concluded that fox hunting was not cruel.

Has the author of that report ever been ripped apart by a pack of dogs? I think the slaughtered foxes are the best judges of what amounts to cruelty.

Ask a lamb or pregnant sheep or hen savaged by a fox what they think of foxes, if we’re going to get into asking animals what they think.

The Burn report concluded that foxes were pests and needed to be culled and that many of the other ways of culling them were equally if not crueller than fox-hunting.

But the argument on this has been done. It’s not going to be brought back, foxes are still culled and trail hunting is still going on. There are more important issues in the countryside for politicians to address, if they can be bothered.

Pests. Abject nonsense. The only pest species on this planet is humankind.

Really? The only pest species?

That kind of hyperbole just undermines any point you want to make. And no, I dont support fox hunting.

Pests are the right animals in the wrong place. Same as weeds being the right plant in the wrong place. Or Theresa May.

Tissue_Price said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

So it's to be "Sleepy Joe" is it ? Could be worse I suppose thought that will resonate with those who worry about Biden's age. There is a counter-intuitive view a leader who sleeps a lot and doesn't do anything might not be the worst thing ever - depends on your view of masterly inactivity I suppose.

I presume Sleepy was also chosen because it rhymes with Creepy.

Yes, it's very clever - just enough of an echo without being too blatant.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Eco-warrior glues her BREASTS to the road in most bizarre Extinction Rebellion stunt yet

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8934720/eco-warriors-glue-london-stock-exchange-climb-canary-wharf-train/

Is glueing the new thing or something?

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nigelb said:

538 has a more measured assessment:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-joe-biden-could-win-the-2020-democratic-nomination/

I appreciate Mike is pretty dismissive of Biden's prospects, but it seems a mistake to write off any of the top half dozen candidates at this point.

Yes, Nate's article is a good balanced assessment. Clearly Biden has a goodish chance, but it's early days and there are significant obstacles.

An interesting question is who will be the top ten who make it to the first debate, and what metric will they apply to allocate spaces at the grownup version ?

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/440599-booker-fundraises-off-biden-announcement
The Democratic National Committee has said no more than 20 candidates will be allowed to attend debates with only 10 on stage at one time. Candidates must poll at 1 percent or more in three national or early primary state polls or receive contributions from at least 65,000 donors in 20 states to qualify....

Anyone outside that is probably toast.

8 more or less certain to make it to the first debate :

Biden
Sanders
Buttigieg
Harris
Warren
O 'Rourke
Booker
Klobuchar

Then after 2 of:

-----------
Yang
Castro
Gillibrand
Hickenlooper
------------

I think perhaps Yang and Gillibrand.

What's happened to Hickenlooper? Seem to recall OGH was quite keen.

OGH's general strategy in these races of trying to back all viable longshots at big prices is a good one, but they aren't all going to get traction and are big prices for a reason.

Mr. D, it's for people who want to make pritts of themselves.

Richard_Nabavi said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Eco-warrior glues her BREASTS to the road in most bizarre Extinction Rebellion stunt yet

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8934720/eco-warriors-glue-london-stock-exchange-climb-canary-wharf-train/

What does she propose to do next?

Let me see, cylindrical fluid filled objects placed flush against an engineered surface. Leave her alone, isn't it clear she's merely using her spirit levels?

SandyRentool said:

Casino_Royale said:

Expect a big announcement on Crossrail later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Main Board meeting right now.

It will still carry a lot of risk in it (opening date) before anyone asks.

"Crossrail to open on Brexit Day"

Honestly I think "which first, Brexit or trains from Reading to Shenfield" might be a decent market.

Plenty of polling news around Europe in the last few days but attention shifting to the election to the Cortes in Spain on Sunday. With polls banned in the last few days we are relying on what could look very old evidence come Sunday night.

In June 2016 PP won 137 seats on 33% of the vote. PSOE won 85 on 22.6%, Podemos won 71 on 21.2% and Citizens won 32 on 13.1%. After weeks of wrangling, PP formed a minority Government supported by some Independents.

The Rajoy Government was voted out of office in the Cortes on June 1st 2018 and a PSOE Government formed under Sanchez - again with a few Independents involved.

The most recent polls all show PSOE ahead - the Electomania poll has a very large sample (11,000) but I don't know if they are the same people being re-polled or a new panel - my Spanish isn't up to it.

The Key Data poll for the online newspaper Publico puts PSOE on 29.4% (128 seats), PP on 20.4% (83), Citizens on 15.3% (53), Podemos on 13.1% (34) and VOX on 10.4% (22) and the Republican Left of Catalonia winning 14 seats on 3.3%.

As with 2016, hard to see where a majority is coming from. PP, Citizens and VOX come to 158 so short but could they fashion a deal with some independents? PSOE, Podemos and the Republican Left would scrape over the line but is there a deal given Sanchez's attitude to Catalonian separatism?

The Electomania seat forecasts are PSOE 111, PP 74, Citizens 53, Podemos 40, VOX 37 and Republican Left 6. On those number a PP/Citizens/VOX are on 164 with PSOE/Podemos and Rep Left on 157 so again a small number of Independents might hold the balance.

stodge said:

If no one else has mentioned it, it was ANZAC day in NZ and Australia yesterday (because in NZ it's already Friday morning).

It's also 45 years since the Carnation Revolution in Portugal when the Army overthrew the Estado Nero Government of Marcelo Caetano.

I think it's celebrated as Hannan day in the UK now?

https://twitter.com/JoshHalliday/status/1121426648392507392

stodge said:

Plenty of polling news around Europe in the last few days but attention shifting to the election to the Cortes in Spain on Sunday. With polls banned in the last few days we are relying on what could look very old evidence come Sunday night.

In June 2016 PP won 137 seats on 33% of the vote. PSOE won 85 on 22.6%, Podemos won 71 on 21.2% and Citizens won 32 on 13.1%. After weeks of wrangling, PP formed a minority Government supported by some Independents.

The Rajoy Government was voted out of office in the Cortes on June 1st 2018 and a PSOE Government formed under Sanchez - again with a few Independents involved.

The most recent polls all show PSOE ahead - the Electomania poll has a very large sample (11,000) but I don't know if they are the same people being re-polled or a new panel - my Spanish isn't up to it.

The Key Data poll for the online newspaper Publico puts PSOE on 29.4% (128 seats), PP on 20.4% (83), Citizens on 15.3% (53), Podemos on 13.1% (34) and VOX on 10.4% (22) and the Republican Left of Catalonia winning 14 seats on 3.3%.

As with 2016, hard to see where a majority is coming from. PP, Citizens and VOX come to 158 so short but could they fashion a deal with some independents? PSOE, Podemos and the Republican Left would scrape over the line but is there a deal given Sanchez's attitude to Catalonian separatism?

The Electomania seat forecasts are PSOE 111, PP 74, Citizens 53, Podemos 40, VOX 37 and Republican Left 6. On those number a PP/Citizens/VOX are on 164 with PSOE/Podemos and Rep Left on 157 so again a small number of Independents might hold the balance.

I don't know what you mean. Electomania hasn't asked ANYONE for their political opinions, only their thoughts on a range of emojies.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JoshHalliday/status/1121426648392507392

The nominations are published 5pm today unless there are any objections, which would in themselves indicate something possibly interesting.

The SW announcement was a day ahead as the timetable there also has to take into account an additional public holiday in Gibraltar.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

I don't know what you mean. Electomania hasn't asked ANYONE for their political opinions, only their thoughts on a range of emojies.

Are we then to suppose the 11,000 or so who have responded are in any way "representative" or "sampled" - I think it's a bit more than just saying whether you prefer water to a rose or an aubergine to an orange.

It looks like a poll, smells like a poll and sounds like a poll - it's probably a poll.

stodge said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

I don't know what you mean. Electomania hasn't asked ANYONE for their political opinions, only their thoughts on a range of emojies.

Are we then to suppose the 11,000 or so who have responded are in any way "representative" or "sampled" - I think it's a bit more than just saying whether you prefer water to a rose or an aubergine to an orange.

It looks like a poll, smells like a poll and sounds like a poll - it's probably a poll.

Of course it's a poll, I just think it's a bit silly and rather funny

I think Electomania's 11k "sample" is a rolling panel type poll, but I'm not 100%.

kinabalu said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Yes, it's very clever - just enough of an echo without being too blatant.

I agree. It's bordering on genius. We have in this president a man of considerable talent when it comes to thinking up nicknames for people. He really has raised the bar in this respect. Churlish not to acknowledge that.

Yes, surely the most devious playing around with appellations since Churchill used to pronounce the first syllable of 'Nazi' to rhyme with 'jazz' instead of 'arts'.

SandyRentool said:

Casino_Royale said:

Expect a big announcement on Crossrail later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Main Board meeting right now.

It will still carry a lot of risk in it (opening date) before anyone asks.

"Crossrail to open on Brexit Day"

The Elizabeth Line to be renamed the Brexit Line?

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

Casino_Royale said:

Expect a big announcement on Crossrail later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Main Board meeting right now.

It will still carry a lot of risk in it (opening date) before anyone asks.

"Crossrail to open on Brexit Day"

The Elizabeth Line to be renamed the Brexit Line?

Or the Elizabeth Bowes Line?

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

Casino_Royale said:

Expect a big announcement on Crossrail later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Main Board meeting right now.

It will still carry a lot of risk in it (opening date) before anyone asks.

"Crossrail to open on Brexit Day"

The Elizabeth Line to be renamed the Brexit Line?

That won't be work, as Crossrail has an end (in fact, three ends), whilst Brexit is never-ending. As such, the Circle line should be restarted and renamed the Brexit line (with no passengers allowed to travel from the south or east).

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Eco-warrior glues her BREASTS to the road in most bizarre Extinction Rebellion stunt yet

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8934720/eco-warriors-glue-london-stock-exchange-climb-canary-wharf-train/

Is glueing the new thing or something?

Completely ignoring people who glue themselves to things sounds quite a good strategy where practicable. Other eco-warriors can unglue their friends when they get bored.

"UK, Kantar Public poll:

European Union Membership Referendum

Remain: 55% (+1)
Leave: 45% (-1)

+/- vs. 4-8 April

Fieldwork: 19 February-4 March 2019
Sample Size: ~1,000"

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

Casino_Royale said:

Expect a big announcement on Crossrail later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Main Board meeting right now.

It will still carry a lot of risk in it (opening date) before anyone asks.

"Crossrail to open on Brexit Day"

The Elizabeth Line to be renamed the Brexit Line?

A long dark tunnel and no one knows when it will be finished.

https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1121439804116348930?s=21

Z

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

Casino_Royale said:

Expect a big announcement on Crossrail later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Main Board meeting right now.

It will still carry a lot of risk in it (opening date) before anyone asks.

"Crossrail to open on Brexit Day"

The Elizabeth Line to be renamed the Brexit Line?

That won't be work, as Crossrail has an end (in fact, three ends), whilst Brexit is never-ending. As such, the Circle line should be restarted and renamed the Brexit line (with no passengers allowed to travel from the south or east).

Almost as poetic as the Rue du Brexit in France, which not only goes nowhere but does a u-turn and rejoins Rue Robert Schuman

Rue du Brexit
30300 Beaucaire, France
https://maps.app.goo.gl/3aLPhDKJFtp6de4P7

RobD said:

nico67 said:

AndyJS said:

"UK, Kantar Public poll:

European Union Membership Referendum

Remain: 55% (+1)
Leave: 45% (-1)

+/- vs. 4-8 April

Fieldwork: 19 February-4 March 2019
Sample Size: ~1,000"

Not a single poll in over 18 months has had Leave ahead . You can see why Leavers don’t want another EU referendum.

Fine with another referendum, after the first has been enacted.

... unfortunately it's not possible, leavers can't agree what 'Leave' means.

RobD said:

nico67 said:

AndyJS said:

"UK, Kantar Public poll:

European Union Membership Referendum

Remain: 55% (+1)
Leave: 45% (-1)

+/- vs. 4-8 April

Fieldwork: 19 February-4 March 2019
Sample Size: ~1,000"

Not a single poll in over 18 months has had Leave ahead . You can see why Leavers don’t want another EU referendum.

Fine with another referendum, after the first has been enacted.

It has. People voted for chaos, and we've got it.

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

AndyJS said:

"UK, Kantar Public poll:

European Union Membership Referendum

Remain: 55% (+1)
Leave: 45% (-1)

+/- vs. 4-8 April

Fieldwork: 19 February-4 March 2019
Sample Size: ~1,000"

Not a single poll in over 18 months has had Leave ahead . You can see why Leavers don’t want another EU referendum.

Fine with another referendum, after the first has been enacted.

It has. People voted for chaos, and we've got it.

Don't blame me, I voted for Cameron in 2015.

8,000 Britons may need to be evacuated from Sri Lanka according to the BBC. I hope the government has contingency plans in place.

AndyJS said:

8,000 Britons may need to be evacuated from Sri Lanka according to the BBC. I hope the government has contingency plans in place.

Heavens, that sounds a bit apocalyptic. Presumably the Govt has inside info that more is to come? When did we last evacuate all Britons from an entire country?