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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden is polling far better in the national primary surveys than in the first two states to decide
With Obama’s former VP, 76 year old Joe Biden, today entering the race for the WH2020 Democratic nomination he does so from a position of strength in national polls of party voters.
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But: He has a full head of hair (& Bernie looks even older than Biden!) and isn't morbidly obese, traits shared by his main rivals.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-joe-biden-could-win-the-2020-democratic-nomination/
I appreciate Mike is pretty dismissive of Biden's prospects, but it seems a mistake to write off any of the top half dozen candidates at this point.
Of course people are working and staying healthy for longer nowadays, but even so, 82 is a stretch by any standard - let alone 86 if he stayed to the end of a second term.
Suggest it is set at 1 year less than whatever Trump was when he was running in 2016.
Once bitten.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/440599-booker-fundraises-off-biden-announcement
The Democratic National Committee has said no more than 20 candidates will be allowed to attend debates with only 10 on stage at one time. Candidates must poll at 1 percent or more in three national or early primary state polls or receive contributions from at least 65,000 donors in 20 states to qualify....
Anyone outside that is probably toast.
A very large Republican field led to Trump. I wonder if an outsider might do the same with a legion of Democrat candidates.
The chances of any such thing happening in the foreseeable future is close to zero.
Hey hey PBJ, how many kids did you kill today?
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8934720/eco-warriors-glue-london-stock-exchange-climb-canary-wharf-train/
Biden
Sanders
Buttigieg
Harris
Warren
O 'Rourke
Booker
Klobuchar
Then after 2 of:
-----------
Yang
Castro
Gillibrand
Hickenlooper
------------
I think perhaps Yang and Gillibrand.
Probably not Harris..
Offering a VP slot would be all part of the negotiation at that point.
And Abrams has been pretty clear she's not going to play that game anyway. She'll possibly run herself, or more likely run for the Senate.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1121388967444799488
It will still carry a lot of risk in it (opening date) before anyone asks.
So it's to be "Sleepy Joe" is it ? Could be worse I suppose thought that will resonate with those who worry about Biden's age. There is a counter-intuitive view a leader who sleeps a lot and doesn't do anything might not be the worst thing ever - depends on your view of masterly inactivity I suppose.
Back to the usual and we continue in our ever decreasing circles as May latches on to the fact the only thing which did once get a majority was the Brady Amendment - WA minus backstop. The only strategy left seems to be somehow to cajole or coerce the EU into dropping the backstop but there's been zero indication they are prepared to do anything meaningful so that's another road closed off.
With no majority for the WA, leaving without the WA, revoking A50 or a second referendum and a Conservative Party polling in the high 20s unlikely to be keen on a GE, the clock counts down to another cliff edge and presumably another extension beyond 31/10.
That kind of hyperbole just undermines any point you want to make. And no, I dont support fox hunting.
In June 2016 PP won 137 seats on 33% of the vote. PSOE won 85 on 22.6%, Podemos won 71 on 21.2% and Citizens won 32 on 13.1%. After weeks of wrangling, PP formed a minority Government supported by some Independents.
The Rajoy Government was voted out of office in the Cortes on June 1st 2018 and a PSOE Government formed under Sanchez - again with a few Independents involved.
The most recent polls all show PSOE ahead - the Electomania poll has a very large sample (11,000) but I don't know if they are the same people being re-polled or a new panel - my Spanish isn't up to it.
The Key Data poll for the online newspaper Publico puts PSOE on 29.4% (128 seats), PP on 20.4% (83), Citizens on 15.3% (53), Podemos on 13.1% (34) and VOX on 10.4% (22) and the Republican Left of Catalonia winning 14 seats on 3.3%.
As with 2016, hard to see where a majority is coming from. PP, Citizens and VOX come to 158 so short but could they fashion a deal with some independents? PSOE, Podemos and the Republican Left would scrape over the line but is there a deal given Sanchez's attitude to Catalonian separatism?
The Electomania seat forecasts are PSOE 111, PP 74, Citizens 53, Podemos 40, VOX 37 and Republican Left 6. On those number a PP/Citizens/VOX are on 164 with PSOE/Podemos and Rep Left on 157 so again a small number of Independents might hold the balance.
It's also 45 years since the Carnation Revolution in Portugal when the Army overthrew the Estado Nero Government of Marcelo Caetano.
The SW announcement was a day ahead as the timetable there also has to take into account an additional public holiday in Gibraltar.
That same July, we were in Cyprus. Flew home the night before the coup, which led to the Turkish invasion a week or so later.
Even as a child, was aware I had visited two places which would never be the same again.
It looks like a poll, smells like a poll and sounds like a poll - it's probably a poll.
Hickenlooper sounds like he should be battling on the back nine on Sunday to win a minor tournament, pursued every inch of the way by the apocryphal JJ Spatula.
I think Electomania's 11k "sample" is a rolling panel type poll, but I'm not 100%.
Problems for Corbyn now as that forum includes some of the biggest unions , constituency representatives , MEPs and MPs.
In the Democratic Primary this time around, you might easily have four or five candidates with more than 10% of the delegates at the end of Super Tuesday.
What this means is that the chances of contested convention are quite high, especially with so many big state contests happening when there will be so many candidates. (Put in context for a second: third or fourth in California could net you more delegates than first in both Iowa and New Hampshire.)
A contested convention is good news for Biden, who's a compromise pick and an old Pope all in one. But it's bad news for Sanders, who will struggle to get either Superdelegate votes or transfers.
https://twitter.com/Fabapocalypse/status/1121347797343715328
European Union Membership Referendum
Remain: 55% (+1)
Leave: 45% (-1)
+/- vs. 4-8 April
Fieldwork: 19 February-4 March 2019
Sample Size: ~1,000"
Given PP and Citizens joined with VOX to take over Andalucia in January I wonder if that might be the national scenario but presumably that might help PSOE build a coalition to keep VOX out of power.
Rue du Brexit
30300 Beaucaire, France
https://maps.app.goo.gl/3aLPhDKJFtp6de4P7
The Kantar poll includes people aged 16-18 and EU nationals, so is not directly comparable to UK polls.