politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris could once again suffer the curse of being the long term

System · April 2019

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris could once again suffer the curse of being the long term CON leadership favourite

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RobD · April 2019

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JackJack · April 2019

I don't think Boris will get it. Leave MPs must know they have a bunch more capable, harder working and tactically smarter candidates that are more likely to get Brexit through, and ex-Remainers (who dislike Boris) must know only a Leaver will win a membership vote. I think in ends with two Leavers who can unite the parliamentary party going through. That isn't Boris.

DecrepitJohnL · April 2019

It might be hard to see how Theresa May can remain Prime Minister but turn the question around and ask by what mechanism she can be removed. The 1922 might change the rules, as mentioned, but surely not retrospectively, even if they remove the 12 months' immunity clause from the next contest.

Most likely is a Cabinet revolt in the event of disastrous showings (if they are) in the forthcoming Local and European elections. But that scenario probably relies on Cabinet near-unanimity for a short-term successor in a coronation. It won't be Boris.

But if there is a normal election in the new year, Boris's weakness is that he is, and he would make the party, vulnerable to the same sort of attacks the Tories have been making against Corbyn for alleged antisemitism. Every rival candidate would have their SpAds touring the tearooms reminding MPs of this. It is hard to see Boris making the final two in these circumstances, which might explain the kite recently flown about submitting a final four!

Dura_Ace · April 2019

JackJack said:
I don't think Boris will get it. Leave MPs must know they have a bunch more capable, harder working and tactically smarter candidates that are more likely to get Brexit through, and ex-Remainers (who dislike Boris) must know only a Leaver will win a membership vote. I think in ends with two Leavers who can unite the parliamentary party going through. That isn't Boris.

It has to be Boris. A normal lights-out-missionary-position tory is going to have no chance against Corbyn who will promise fucking everything to everybody in a GE. The tories need their own epic dissembler to avoid bringing piss to a shit fight. Hence: Boris.

Also Boris' last leadership tilt fell apart due to the vespertine treachery of Gove. Events are unlikely to deroule in the same manner this time.

edmundintokyo · April 2019

Any idea what TMay is going to do for the next 6 months while she waits for her brexit extension to expire? Is she still pretending to negotiate with Labour or is everybody going to quietly forget about that? Maybe she just forgets about brexit and moves on to something else???

edmundintokyo · April 2019

Dura_Ace said:

JackJack said:
I don't think Boris will get it. Leave MPs must know they have a bunch more capable, harder working and tactically smarter candidates that are more likely to get Brexit through, and ex-Remainers (who dislike Boris) must know only a Leaver will win a membership vote. I think in ends with two Leavers who can unite the parliamentary party going through. That isn't Boris.
It has to be Boris. A normal lights-out-missionary-position tory is going to have no chance against Corbyn who will promise fucking everything to everybody in a GE. The tories need their own epic dissembler to avoid bringing piss to a shit fight. Hence: Boris.

Also Boris' last leadership tilt fell apart due to the vespertine treachery of Gove. Events are unlikely to deroule in the same manner this time.

Also the next guy is going to need to run on No Deal then promptly take TMay's deal. Apart from Boris I'm not sure who has the audacity to do that.

JohnLoony · April 2019

It's more likely to be Pietro Psaier or Nat Tate or René Koehler or Piotr Zak

Toms · April 2019

I dislike the Boris as much as I dislike t'Corbyn so I expect he'll get it.

Gadfly · April 2019

Somebody once said that the Tories will only turn to Boris when they are 2 - 0 down, with 10 minutes left to play. I suspect that many Tory MPs could now be considering whether Boris is the only person who can save the day.

AlastairMeeks · April 2019

JackJack said:
I don't think Boris will get it. Leave MPs must know they have a bunch more capable, harder working and tactically smarter candidates that are more likely to get Brexit through, and ex-Remainers (who dislike Boris) must know only a Leaver will win a membership vote. I think in ends with two Leavers who can unite the parliamentary party going through. That isn't Boris.

On what prospectus is any leader going to unite the Parliamentary party?

Black_Rook · April 2019

Dura_Ace said:

JackJack said:
I don't think Boris will get it. Leave MPs must know they have a bunch more capable, harder working and tactically smarter candidates that are more likely to get Brexit through, and ex-Remainers (who dislike Boris) must know only a Leaver will win a membership vote. I think in ends with two Leavers who can unite the parliamentary party going through. That isn't Boris.
It has to be Boris. A normal lights-out-missionary-position tory is going to have no chance against Corbyn who will promise fucking everything to everybody in a GE. The tories need their own epic dissembler to avoid bringing piss to a shit fight. Hence: Boris.

Also Boris' last leadership tilt fell apart due to the vespertine treachery of Gove. Events are unlikely to deroule in the same manner this time.

It's even more a matter of survival than that: if the Tories don't pick somebody to the taste of the voluntary party then what remains of it will collapse. They'll have hardly anyone left to campaign and they'll start to find that they have no candidates left for local elections, either.

The piece on PB a couple of days ago about the Ulsterization of British politics appears pertinent. We all know what happened in Northern Ireland: the centrist parties were gutted by the radical ones - those more hardline on the dominant Unionist-Nationalist axis. In the same fashion, if the Tories don't stop dithering over the EU then they could find themselves being replaced by the Brexit Party, and it could happen surprisingly quickly.

Just because the Conservatives and Labour have been the two dominant political movements in England throughout living memory, this does not imply that they have some immutable and God-given right to remain so forever. The Liberal Party probably thought it was similarly invulnerable a hundred years ago - and look what happened to it next.

Charles · April 2019

@JosiasJessop FPT

If you’d read the thread I didn’t name my source originally

I had a rather rude response from ManchesterKurt. So I sourced the comment. Not gratuitous.

Andy was a client at the time (or at least Boots was) and I haven’t seen him since he quit to run GalaCoral in 2011.

ydoethur · April 2019

Black_Rook said:
The Liberal Party probably thought it was similarly invulnerable a hundred years ago - and look what happened to it next.

Leaving aside the fact that 100 years ago the Liberal Party had been splintered three ways and was struggling to survive in a new age of mass politics, although the final collapse didn't come until the mid 1930s, they had in fact spent much of the preceding 40 years in existential angst about the risk of being outflanked on the left by Socialism. Most of its programme from 1880 onwards (insofar as it had one) can only really be understood if you appreciate they wanted massive distraction therapy for their voters so they didn't have to choose between middle class and working class support.

Lloyd George's tax and reform programme was in fact designed to shoot the Labour fox, although it was at best a partial success.

SouthamObserver · April 2019

Two lazy, lying, racists vying to lead the country. What a prospect that is.

IanB2 · April 2019

edmundintokyo said:
Any idea what TMay is going to do for the next 6 months while she waits for her brexit extension to expire? Is she still pretending to negotiate with Labour or is everybody going to quietly forget about that? Maybe she just forgets about brexit and moves on to something else???

We have the government sponsored preference-voted options debate to look forward to, possibly very soon.

The Labour talks are surely doomed, both because Labour doesn't want its fingerprints on the corpse and because May would be hugely worse off agreeing with Labour what she could simply allow herself to be forced to do by parliament.

IanB2 · April 2019

If the not inconsiderable batch of MPs who have said they would resign the party if Boris became leader actually mean it, electing him would be a high risk option. The consequences will be high in MPs minds if not all of the members.

OldKingCole · April 2019

SouthamObserver said:
Two lazy, lying, racists vying to lead the country. What a prospect that is.

Good post. Politically this country is crying out for some positive vision at the top; that's why Farage with his reversion to a 'time when we ruled the waves' race 'memory' does so well.

DavidL · April 2019

IanB2 said:
If the not inconsiderable batch of MPs who have said they would resign the party if Boris became leader actually mean it, electing him would be a high risk option. The consequences will be high in MPs minds if not all of the members.

They won't be going to Change UK if they read the previous but 1 thread for all the reasons you said. And, frankly, it would make things too easy for Boris. If he won the leadership he would want an election anyway. One wing of the multiple awkward squads that now form the PCP falling on their swords would simplify things going forward.

The real problem is that just as the Tories do not have a majority in Parliament there is no majority available inside the PCP either. As with Parliament generally there is a majority opposed to every option and nothing that has a majority in favour. Under any normal circumstances the party would have an extended period in opposition whilst the bodies got buried and a new consensus developed. But given the current leader of the opposition there is an understandable reluctance to accept that.

Sean_F · April 2019

ydoethur said:

Black_Rook said:
The Liberal Party probably thought it was similarly invulnerable a hundred years ago - and look what happened to it next.
Leaving aside the fact that 100 years ago the Liberal Party had been splintered three ways and was struggling to survive in a new age of mass politics, although the final collapse didn't come until the mid 1930s, they had in fact spent much of the preceding 40 years in existential angst about the risk of being outflanked on the left by Socialism. Most of its programme from 1880 onwards (insofar as it had one) can only really be understood if you appreciate they wanted massive distraction therapy for their voters so they didn't have to choose between middle class and working class support.

Lloyd George's tax and reform programme was in fact designed to shoot the Labour fox, although it was at best a partial success.

After 1922, there was not much to distinguish the Liberals from Conservatives.

AlastairMeeks · April 2019

IanB2 said:
If the not inconsiderable batch of MPs who have said they would resign the party if Boris became leader actually mean it, electing him would be a high risk option. The consequences will be high in MPs minds if not all of the members.

David Herdson and I were having a twitter disagreement about a related subject yesterday.

At present the Conservatives and the DUP have a majority of three. Let’s assume that Boris Johnson is elected leader of the Conservative party. Does he even get to be called to be Prime Minister if a sufficient number of Conservative MPs then resign the whip?

And what would be a sufficient number? There are now over 20 independent MPs. They might not all vote the same way in a vote of no confidence (they probably wouldn’t). If ten Conservative MPs left, however, it is hard to see how Boris Johnson could credibly claim to expect to command the confidence of the House. And it might be a lot more than ten who left.

JosiasJessop · April 2019

Charles said:
@JosiasJessop FPT

If you’d read the thread I didn’t name my source originally

I had a rather rude response from ManchesterKurt. So I sourced the comment. Not gratuitous.

Andy was a client at the time (or at least Boots was) and I haven’t seen him since he quit to run GalaCoral in 2011.

The problem you face, Charles, is that sometimes when you namedrop to support a 'fact', the fact you're supporting is wrong. It's happened a couple of times, and it doesn't matter how important you claim the person who told you something was, the facts were still wrong.

You should take a leaf from RCS's book; he does it sparingly and with style.

But in the spirit of comradeship, a happy Easter Monday to you and all PBers! I hope you'll all enjoy the sunshine before work subsumes most of us once more ...

Morris_Dancer · April 2019

Good morning, everyone.

Boris would be a bloody awful choice. He's proven himself unfit to be in the Cabinet.

Foxy · April 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

IanB2 said:
If the not inconsiderable batch of MPs who have said they would resign the party if Boris became leader actually mean it, electing him would be a high risk option. The consequences will be high in MPs minds if not all of the members.
David Herdson and I were having a twitter disagreement about a related subject yesterday.

At present the Conservatives and the DUP have a majority of three. Let’s assume that Boris Johnson is elected leader of the Conservative party. Does he even get to be called to be Prime Minister if a sufficient number of Conservative MPs then resign the whip?

And what would be a sufficient number? There are now over 20 independent MPs. They might not all vote the same way in a vote of no confidence (they probably wouldn’t). If ten Conservative MPs left, however, it is hard to see how Boris Johnson could credibly claim to expect to command the confidence of the House. And it might be a lot more than ten who left.

That might be the perfect dodge for Boris. Leader of the party, but not having to do Brexit as enough defectors to make him LOTO rather than PM. It may well be that a few rats leaving the sinking ship is exactly what suits.

ydoethur · April 2019

Sean_F said:

ydoethur said:

Black_Rook said:
The Liberal Party probably thought it was similarly invulnerable a hundred years ago - and look what happened to it next.
Leaving aside the fact that 100 years ago the Liberal Party had been splintered three ways and was struggling to survive in a new age of mass politics, although the final collapse didn't come until the mid 1930s, they had in fact spent much of the preceding 40 years in existential angst about the risk of being outflanked on the left by Socialism. Most of its programme from 1880 onwards (insofar as it had one) can only really be understood if you appreciate they wanted massive distraction therapy for their voters so they didn't have to choose between middle class and working class support.

Lloyd George's tax and reform programme was in fact designed to shoot the Labour fox, although it was at best a partial success.
After 1922, there was not much to distinguish the Liberals from Conservatives.

They would have disagreed with you. The Liberals remained wedded to Free Trade and the Unionists (as they still were until 1925) to tariffs.

Charles · April 2019

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:
@JosiasJessop FPT

If you’d read the thread I didn’t name my source originally

I had a rather rude response from ManchesterKurt. So I sourced the comment. Not gratuitous.

Andy was a client at the time (or at least Boots was) and I haven’t seen him since he quit to run GalaCoral in 2011.
The problem you face, Charles, is that sometimes when you namedrop to support a 'fact', the fact you're supporting is wrong. It's happened a couple of times, and it doesn't matter how important you claim the person who told you something was, the facts were still wrong.

You should take a leaf from RCS's book; he does it sparingly and with style.

But in the spirit of comradeship, a happy Easter Monday to you and all PBers! I hope you'll all enjoy the sunshine before work subsumes most of us once more ...

On this occasion the error was mine - I assume Old Trafford and Trafford Centre were close...

But if you read my posts when I cite a source like that I don’t state the fact is true but that it’s what I have been told. A subtle difference I am sure.

But you seem to have a bee in your bonnet on this topic so have a good bank holiday

SquareRoot · April 2019

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

Boris would be a bloody awful choice. He's proven himself unfit to be in the Cabinet.

+1

JosiasJessop · April 2019

Charles said:

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:
@JosiasJessop FPT

If you’d read the thread I didn’t name my source originally

I had a rather rude response from ManchesterKurt. So I sourced the comment. Not gratuitous.

Andy was a client at the time (or at least Boots was) and I haven’t seen him since he quit to run GalaCoral in 2011.
The problem you face, Charles, is that sometimes when you namedrop to support a 'fact', the fact you're supporting is wrong. It's happened a couple of times, and it doesn't matter how important you claim the person who told you something was, the facts were still wrong.

You should take a leaf from RCS's book; he does it sparingly and with style.

But in the spirit of comradeship, a happy Easter Monday to you and all PBers! I hope you'll all enjoy the sunshine before work subsumes most of us once more ...
On this occasion the error was mine - I assume Old Trafford and Trafford Centre were close...

But if you read my posts when I cite a source like that I don’t state the fact is true but that it’s what I have been told. A subtle difference I am sure.

But you seem to have a bee in your bonnet on this topic so have a good bank holiday

No bee in my bonnet: it amuses me when you do it, and I take the 'fact' you're promoting with a rather large pinch of salt.

Swindon_Addick · April 2019

JackJack said:
Leave MPs must know they have a bunch more capable, harder working and tactically smarter candidates that are more likely to get Brexit through

Not to disagree with the overall point you were making, but this line jumped out at me. Asking for more capable & harder working candidates than Johnson is a low bar to set, but even so it's hard to think of many names if you restrict yourself to the real hard liners rather than the ex-remainers. Gove, clearly. But most of the others have shown a lack of ability to grasp basic facts, which would surely make MPs worry about letting them into the final two.

Hence why I think the MPs will set up a contest that's either two ex-Remainers trying to outflank each other or Gove vs an ex-Remainer. Which leads me to conclude that Gove may be the party's only hope of medium-term survival.

ydoethur · April 2019

Swindon_Addick said:
Which leads me to conclude that Gove may be the party's only hope of medium-term survival.

I would have said that Gove is actually their best chance of immediate annihilation.

Foxy · April 2019

ydoethur said:

Swindon_Addick said:
Which leads me to conclude that Gove may be the party's only hope of medium-term survival.
I would have said that Gove is actually their best chance of immediate annihilation.

Yes, but surely there are some downsides too?

JosiasJessop · April 2019

Off-topic:

Here's an interesting article on why fewer trips are being made on London's transport system, despite an increasing population. Similar trends are being seen elsewhere in transport ...

https://thedeveloper.live/places/places/why-are-fewer-people-riding-the-underground-the-reason-is-not-what-you-think-

(Incidentally, if this is seen across the country it might validate an anti-HS2 argument that Richard Tyndall made in a discussion with me about eight or so years ago!)

SquareRoot · April 2019

ydoethur said:

Swindon_Addick said:
Which leads me to conclude that Gove may be the party's only hope of medium-term survival.
I would have said that Gove is actually their best chance of immediate annihilation.

There isn't anyone on the Tory front bench who the camera is kind to.

OblitusSumMe · April 2019

Swindon_Addick said:

JackJack said:
Leave MPs must know they have a bunch more capable, harder working and tactically smarter candidates that are more likely to get Brexit through
Not to disagree with the overall point you were making, but this line jumped out at me. Asking for more capable & harder working candidates than Johnson is a low bar to set, but even so it's hard to think of many names if you restrict yourself to the real hard liners rather than the ex-remainers. Gove, clearly. But most of the others have shown a lack of ability to grasp basic facts, which would surely make MPs worry about letting them into the final two.

Hence why I think the MPs will set up a contest that's either two ex-Remainers trying to outflank each other or Gove vs an ex-Remainer. Which leads me to conclude that Gove may be the party's only hope of medium-term survival.

I think it's very likely that one of the final two will be someone who resigned from government when it was not hard Brexit enough (e.g. Boris, Raab, etc) or was never in May's government and therefore unsullied by the taint of compromise (?)

I don't see how the numbers support two ex-remainers, or prevent a standard bearer for the pure of heart.

Alistair · April 2019

Local Election question. How many wards up for election have had both the UKIP and LibDem candidate drop off the slate since last time? And how many of these wards have a green candidate

DecrepitJohnL · April 2019

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

Boris would be a bloody awful choice. He's proven himself unfit to be in the Cabinet.

As I said at the opening of this thread, it cannot be Boris. Nonetheless, here is the case for Boris in three words: he's a winner. Twice as Mayor, once for Brexit. I remain sceptical that MPs will hold their noses and vote for him but if facing wipeout, it is not impossible.

Morris_Dancer · April 2019

Mr. JohnL, he was a winner.

Swindon_Addick · April 2019

OblitusSumMe said:
I think it's very likely that one of the final two will be someone who resigned from government when it was not hard Brexit enough (e.g. Boris, Raab, etc) or was never in May's government and therefore unsullied by the taint of compromise (?)

I don't see how the numbers support two ex-remainers, or prevent a standard bearer for the pure of heart.

The purists need about 80 MPs to have a decent chance of getting someone into the last two, or more like 100 to be safe against deliberate manipulation. It's quite a big ask. Raab is an interesting suggestion, though. He probably did himself less harm while in office than davis or Johnson.

JosiasJessop · April 2019

If the answer to the question is Boris, then we're probably asking the wrong question.

OnlyLivingBoy · April 2019

It's tempting to view politics through the prism of the Tories' endless student union leadership psychodrama, but occasionally it's worth remembering that out there in the real world the country is falling apart and desperately needs a government that actually gives a shit about our future.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/22/tories-schools-austerity-cuts-politicians

brokenwheel · April 2019

ydoethur said:

Swindon_Addick said:
Which leads me to conclude that Gove may be the party's only hope of medium-term survival.
I would have said that Gove is actually their best chance of immediate annihilation.

As an aside I noticed something interesting about that poll of leadership favourites with Farage in it. Gove may have been second without him, but he dropped 5 points and was back with the rest of the minnows when Farage was included, which would lend credence to the view that many haven't been paying attention to his apparent Damascene conversion to the dark side. He was apparently after all one of the architects of the hated long extension.

I find it hard to believe his change of heart won't get brought up in a leadership bid, which would suggest his chances are significantly lower than it currently appears.

HYUFD · April 2019

Boris Johnson surges to a big lead in the new Conservative Home next Tory leader Tory members poll putting on 10% to reach 32%, 18 percent ahead of second placed Raab on 14%.

Gove is third on 8%, Hunt 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 4%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/next-tory-leader-our-survey-johnson-dominates-the-table-he-puts-on-ten-points-and-leads-by-eighteen.html

TGOHF · April 2019

When was the last time a COTE was absolutely nowhere in the betting to replace a sitting PM ?

Can’t see Rudd or Greening anywhere either.

Chuckles.

HYUFD · April 2019

IanB2 said:
If the not inconsiderable batch of MPs who have said they would resign the party if Boris became leader actually mean it, electing him would be a high risk option. The consequences will be high in MPs minds if not all of the members.

I expect many Tory members will think the loss of MPs like Grieve if Boris becomes leader might actually be a net positive, Corbyn of course is still there despite most Labour MPs supporting a VONC in him

Jonathan · April 2019

It does look like it will be Boris, they’re that desperate and crazy.

Roger · April 2019

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:
@JosiasJessop FPT

If you’d read the thread I didn’t name my source originally

I had a rather rude response from ManchesterKurt. So I sourced the comment. Not gratuitous.

Andy was a client at the time (or at least Boots was) and I haven’t seen him since he quit to run GalaCoral in 2011.
The problem you face, Charles, is that sometimes when you namedrop to support a 'fact', the fact you're supporting is wrong. It's happened a couple of times, and it doesn't matter how important you claim the person who told you something was, the facts were still wrong.

You should take a leaf from RCS's book; he does it sparingly and with style.

But in the spirit of comradeship, a happy Easter Monday to you and all PBers! I hope you'll all enjoy the sunshine before work subsumes most of us once more ...

An unpleasant post. This site benefits greatly from the inside knowledge of its posters.

HYUFD · April 2019

Boris now reportedly up to 50 MPs and a clear second in terms of MP support, just behind Hunt on 75

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8894996/boris-johnson-topple-theresa-may-tory-leadership/amp/

HYUFD · April 2019

Jonathan said:
It does look like it will be Boris, they’re that desperate and crazy.

Given the mass defections of Tory Leave voters to the Brexit Party if the Tories are to beat Corbyn they cannot have any of the current Cabinet leading them in all likelihood, they will all be contaminated by refusing to resign not only after May's Deal but also by staying in the Cabinet after her extensions of Article 50 beyond the planned Brexit Day, only a charismatic hard Brexiteer will do, that means Boris, maybe Raab

Foxy · April 2019

Roger said:

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:
@JosiasJessop FPT

If you’d read the thread I didn’t name my source originally

I had a rather rude response from ManchesterKurt. So I sourced the comment. Not gratuitous.

Andy was a client at the time (or at least Boots was) and I haven’t seen him since he quit to run GalaCoral in 2011.
The problem you face, Charles, is that sometimes when you namedrop to support a 'fact', the fact you're supporting is wrong. It's happened a couple of times, and it doesn't matter how important you claim the person who told you something was, the facts were still wrong.

You should take a leaf from RCS's book; he does it sparingly and with style.

But in the spirit of comradeship, a happy Easter Monday to you and all PBers! I hope you'll all enjoy the sunshine before work subsumes most of us once more ...
An unpleasant post. This site benefits greatly from the insights of its posters.

Yes, as my old friend the Archbishop said to me over pineapple pizza the other night...

Pulpstar · April 2019

I don't get Boris' appeal, he isn't even a true leaver really.

JosiasJessop · April 2019

Roger said:

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:
@JosiasJessop FPT

If you’d read the thread I didn’t name my source originally

I had a rather rude response from ManchesterKurt. So I sourced the comment. Not gratuitous.

Andy was a client at the time (or at least Boots was) and I haven’t seen him since he quit to run GalaCoral in 2011.
The problem you face, Charles, is that sometimes when you namedrop to support a 'fact', the fact you're supporting is wrong. It's happened a couple of times, and it doesn't matter how important you claim the person who told you something was, the facts were still wrong.

You should take a leaf from RCS's book; he does it sparingly and with style.

But in the spirit of comradeship, a happy Easter Monday to you and all PBers! I hope you'll all enjoy the sunshine before work subsumes most of us once more ...
An unpleasant post. This site benefits greatly from the insights of its posters.

Considering you once lambasted me for writing long posts, that's a bit rich!

JosiasJessop · April 2019

Foxy said:

Roger said:

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:
@JosiasJessop FPT

If you’d read the thread I didn’t name my source originally

I had a rather rude response from ManchesterKurt. So I sourced the comment. Not gratuitous.

Andy was a client at the time (or at least Boots was) and I haven’t seen him since he quit to run GalaCoral in 2011.
The problem you face, Charles, is that sometimes when you namedrop to support a 'fact', the fact you're supporting is wrong. It's happened a couple of times, and it doesn't matter how important you claim the person who told you something was, the facts were still wrong.

You should take a leaf from RCS's book; he does it sparingly and with style.

But in the spirit of comradeship, a happy Easter Monday to you and all PBers! I hope you'll all enjoy the sunshine before work subsumes most of us once more ...
An unpleasant post. This site benefits greatly from the insights of its posters.
Yes, as my old friend the Archbishop said to me over pineapple pizza the other night...

AlastairMeeks · April 2019

JosiasJessop said:
Off-topic:

Here's an interesting article on why fewer trips are being made on London's transport system, despite an increasing population. Similar trends are being seen elsewhere in transport ...

https://thedeveloper.live/places/places/why-are-fewer-people-riding-the-underground-the-reason-is-not-what-you-think-

(Incidentally, if this is seen across the country it might validate an anti-HS2 argument that Richard Tyndall made in a discussion with me about eight or so years ago!)

The rail network needs to think what to do about the TWATs. The increasing trend of working from home for part of the week means that absolute numbers of passengers are likely to stay flat (or increase more slowly than previously expected) but that the commuter trains in the middle part of the week are likely to become even busier. Not an easy problem to solve.

Then there’s the question of pricing for tickets. Someone going into London only three days a week feels ripped off if they still have to pay for a season ticket that covers them for seven days a week. You hear that complaint in the office all the time already.

AlastairMeeks · April 2019

TGOHF said:
When was the last time a COTE was absolutely nowhere in the betting to replace a sitting PM ?

Can’t see Rudd or Greening anywhere either.

Chuckles.

That’s as good an indication of how seriously ill the Conservative party is right now. All three are highly capable. That the Conservatives could not conceive of using their talents and are instead casting around the shallow pool of talent that comprises the pure Leavers is a very bad sign for them.

malcolmg · April 2019

OldKingCole said:

SouthamObserver said:
Two lazy, lying, racists vying to lead the country. What a prospect that is.
Good post. Politically this country is crying out for some positive vision at the top; that's why Farage with his reversion to a 'time when we ruled the waves' race 'memory' does so well.

Unfortunately you can add him and have three instead of two. He is a cheek of the same arse of the other two.

Foxy · April 2019

JosiasJessop said:
Off-topic:

Here's an interesting article on why fewer trips are being made on London's transport system, despite an increasing population. Similar trends are being seen elsewhere in transport ...

https://thedeveloper.live/places/places/why-are-fewer-people-riding-the-underground-the-reason-is-not-what-you-think-

(Incidentally, if this is seen across the country it might validate an anti-HS2 argument that Richard Tyndall made in a discussion with me about eight or so years ago!)

Well worth a read. It is an easy mistake to extrapolate demand and miss some fundamental changes in demographics and how we work.

TGOHF · April 2019

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:
If the not inconsiderable batch of MPs who have said they would resign the party if Boris became leader actually mean it, electing him would be a high risk option. The consequences will be high in MPs minds if not all of the members.
I expect many Tory members will think the loss of MPs like Grieve if Boris becomes leader might actually be a net positive, Corbyn of course is still there despite most Labour MPs supporting a VONC in him

A cleansing of the Augean stables of faux Conservative MPs would be welcomed.

Boris is not a good choice however. Too much baggage and doesn’t have the Great Leap Forward required. Just IDS with hair.

Morris_Dancer · April 2019

Mr. HYUFD, if so then they're bloody daft.

Mr. Flashman (deceased), indeed, it's remarkable. Although perhaps a little less than it might be given Hammond's two modes of operation appear to be doom-mongering and invisibility.

HYUFD · April 2019

Pulpstar said:
I don't get Boris' appeal, he isn't even a true leaver really.

Boris is probably the only Tory who is charismatic enough to beat Corbyn at the moment and win back voters from the Brexit Party.

According to the latest poll from Yougov 20% of 2017 Tories would vote Brexit Party at the next general election, compared to just 2% who would vote for Corbyn Labour (indeed 2% of 2017 Labour voters have switched to the Tories)

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/18/voting-intention-conservatives-29-labour-30-16-17-

malcolmg · April 2019

JosiasJessop said:
If the answer to the question is Boris, then we're probably asking the wrong question.

I would only disagree if the alternative was that snake in the grass Gove, otherwise I am with you.

HYUFD · April 2019

TGOHF said:
When was the last time a COTE was absolutely nowhere in the betting to replace a sitting PM ?

Can’t see Rudd or Greening anywhere either.

Chuckles.

Greening is rumoured to be on the list of potential defectors to CUK anyway

TGOHF · April 2019

Titter

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/1120225704371793921?s=21

Jonathan · April 2019

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:
It does look like it will be Boris, they’re that desperate and crazy.
Given the mass defections of Tory Leave voters to the Brexit Party if the Tories are to beat Corbyn they cannot have any of the current Cabinet leading them in all likelihood, they will all be contaminated by refusing to resign not only after May's Deal but also by staying in the Cabinet after her extensions of Article 50 beyond the planned Brexit Day, only a charismatic hard Brexiteer will do, that means Boris, maybe Raab

Raab is an egotistical narcissist that resigned over the deal he negotiated and doesn’t know that Dover matters to the UK economy.

Boris is also an egotistical narcissist, who thinks he’s the reincarnation of Churchill and cultivates a bumbling persona to deflect attention from a two decade long campaign to see himself in number 10. That is all he cares about. The man who wrote two articles, one leave one remain, picking the one to get home closer to number ten.

Neither are great potential PMs.

Nigelb · April 2019

It’s all gone a bit Sir Richard Clive Mottram for the Tories.

brokenwheel · April 2019

TGOHF said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:
If the not inconsiderable batch of MPs who have said they would resign the party if Boris became leader actually mean it, electing him would be a high risk option. The consequences will be high in MPs minds if not all of the members.
I expect many Tory members will think the loss of MPs like Grieve if Boris becomes leader might actually be a net positive, Corbyn of course is still there despite most Labour MPs supporting a VONC in him
A cleansing of the Augean stables of faux Conservative MPs would be welcomed.

Boris is not a good choice however. Too much baggage and doesn’t have the Great Leap Forward required. Just IDS with hair.

They don't have any good choices.

kle4 · April 2019

If Boris gets through to the members he wins. MPs may be desperate enough to let him through.

I just dont understand how he could actually achieve something on Brexit which would therefore help the Tories.

Someone completely new is the way to go I think. A big gamble and also had to achieve anything, but a chance to reinvent things

AlastairMeeks · April 2019

Sort of on topic, showing the problems the Conservatives face all round:

https://twitter.com/alistairburtuk/status/1120080815428337673?s=21

TGOHF · April 2019

HYUFD said:

TGOHF said:
When was the last time a COTE was absolutely nowhere in the betting to replace a sitting PM ?

Can’t see Rudd or Greening anywhere either.

Chuckles.
Greening is rumoured to be on the list of potential defectors to CUK anyway

She was on the radio the other day banging on about how the long future of the Conservative party can’t be about being the Brexit party.

Completely meaningless drivel - people want the issue settled so they can move on.

JosiasJessop · April 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

JosiasJessop said:
Off-topic:

Here's an interesting article on why fewer trips are being made on London's transport system, despite an increasing population. Similar trends are being seen elsewhere in transport ...

https://thedeveloper.live/places/places/why-are-fewer-people-riding-the-underground-the-reason-is-not-what-you-think-

(Incidentally, if this is seen across the country it might validate an anti-HS2 argument that Richard Tyndall made in a discussion with me about eight or so years ago!)
The rail network needs to think what to do about the TWATs. The increasing trend of working from home for part of the week means that absolute numbers of passengers are likely to stay flat (or increase more slowly than previously expected) but that the commuter trains in the middle part of the week are likely to become even busier. Not an easy problem to solve.

Then there’s the question of pricing for tickets. Someone going into London only three days a week feels ripped off if they still have to pay for a season ticket that covers them for seven days a week. You hear that complaint in the office all the time already.

I got told by a bloke down the Dog and Duck that the Rail Delivery Group are looking into this:
https://www.bigplanbigchanges.co.uk/easierfares

(It's a terrible website, btw. I hate the scrolling graphics that add nothing to the information being delivered.)

HYUFD · April 2019

TGOHF said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:
If the not inconsiderable batch of MPs who have said they would resign the party if Boris became leader actually mean it, electing him would be a high risk option. The consequences will be high in MPs minds if not all of the members.
I expect many Tory members will think the loss of MPs like Grieve if Boris becomes leader might actually be a net positive, Corbyn of course is still there despite most Labour MPs supporting a VONC in him
A cleansing of the Augean stables of faux Conservative MPs would be welcomed.

Boris is not a good choice however. Too much baggage and doesn’t have the Great Leap Forward required. Just IDS with hair.

What is clear is all the current Cabinet are contaminated by May with the membership and have not got a hope, if not Boris look for a hard Brexiteer backbencher like Priti Patel, Raab or McVey.

Raab is second to Boris in the latest ConHome Tory members poll and Patel and McVey have more support then Philip Hammond

Dura_Ace · April 2019

JosiasJessop said:

The problem you face, Charles, is that sometimes when you namedrop to support a 'fact', the fact you're supporting is wrong. It's happened a couple of times, and it doesn't matter how important you claim the person who told you something was, the facts were still wrong.

Corbyn's "cancer" will probably turn out to be piles.

JosiasJessop · April 2019

malcolmg said:

JosiasJessop said:
If the answer to the question is Boris, then we're probably asking the wrong question.
I would only disagree if the alternative was that snake in the grass Gove, otherwise I am with you.

I'm in the odd position of quite liking Boris's personality, whilst thinking he'd make a terrible PM. Whilst I dislike Gove's personality, but think he might make a reasonable PM ...

There's a difference between liking someone, or even agreeing with their views, and thinking they'd be good in a particular role.

malcolmg · April 2019

HYUFD said:

TGOHF said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:
If the not inconsiderable batch of MPs who have said they would resign the party if Boris became leader actually mean it, electing him would be a high risk option. The consequences will be high in MPs minds if not all of the members.
I expect many Tory members will think the loss of MPs like Grieve if Boris becomes leader might actually be a net positive, Corbyn of course is still there despite most Labour MPs supporting a VONC in him
A cleansing of the Augean stables of faux Conservative MPs would be welcomed.

Boris is not a good choice however. Too much baggage and doesn’t have the Great Leap Forward required. Just IDS with hair.
What is clear is all the current Cabinet are contaminated by May with the membership and have not got a hope, if not Boris look for a hard Brexiteer backbencher like Priti Patel, Raab or McVey.

Raab is second to Boris in the latest ConHome Tory members poll and Patel and McVey have more support then Philip Hammond

Oh dear ! three absolute donkeys, Tories talent pool is shallower than a desert.

kle4 · April 2019

HYUFD said:
Boris Johnson surges to a big lead in the new Conservative Home next Tory leader Tory members poll putting on 10% to reach 32%, 18 percent ahead of second placed Raab on 14%.

Gove is third on 8%, Hunt 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 4%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/next-tory-leader-our-survey-johnson-dominates-the-table-he-puts-on-ten-points-and-leads-by-eighteen.html

I just dont get his appeal anymore. His schtick is stale and overblown, he is not ideologically pure, he's not particularly competent and he seems to have no plan for anything. Hes not a new face and he even ended up voting for the deal, blowing apart the refrain that it is not Brexit (just that it is a crap Brexit).

And yet he is the most popular generally. It's weird.

AlastairMeeks · April 2019

JosiasJessop said:

malcolmg said:

JosiasJessop said:
If the answer to the question is Boris, then we're probably asking the wrong question.
I would only disagree if the alternative was that snake in the grass Gove, otherwise I am with you.
I'm in the odd position of quite liking Boris's personality, whilst thinking he'd make a terrible PM. Whilst I dislike Gove's personality, but think he might make a reasonable PM ...

There's a difference between liking someone, or even agreeing with their views, and thinking they'd be good in a particular role.

I suspect Michael Gove would be engaging company. He has an endlessly enquiring mind. That’s not necessarily a good thing in a politician.

kle4 · April 2019

SouthamObserver said:
Two lazy, lying, racists vying to lead the country. What a prospect that is.

We get what we deserve as is often observed of course.

Jonathan · April 2019

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:
Boris Johnson surges to a big lead in the new Conservative Home next Tory leader Tory members poll putting on 10% to reach 32%, 18 percent ahead of second placed Raab on 14%.

Gove is third on 8%, Hunt 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 4%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/next-tory-leader-our-survey-johnson-dominates-the-table-he-puts-on-ten-points-and-leads-by-eighteen.html
I just dont get his appeal anymore. His schtick is stale and overblown, he is not ideologically pure, he's not particularly competent and he seems to have no plan for anything. Hes not a new face and he even ended up voting for the deal, blowing apart the refrain that it is not Brexit (just that it is a crap Brexit).

And yet he is the most popular generally. It's weird.

He’s a demagogue, peddling simple solutions to complex problems. A man for our times.

HYUFD · April 2019

HYUFD said:

TGOHF said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:
If the not inconsiderable batch of MPs who have said they would resign the party if Boris became leader actually mean it, electing him would be a high risk option. The consequences will be high in MPs minds if not all of the members.
I expect many Tory members will think the loss of MPs like Grieve if Boris becomes leader might actually be a net positive, Corbyn of course is still there despite most Labour MPs supporting a VONC in him
A cleansing of the Augean stables of faux Conservative MPs would be welcomed.

Boris is not a good choice however. Too much baggage and doesn’t have the Great Leap Forward required. Just IDS with hair.
What is clear is all the current Cabinet are contaminated by May with the membership and have not got a hope, if not Boris look for a hard Brexiteer backbencher like Priti Patel, Raab or McVey.

Raab is second to Boris in the latest ConHome Tory members poll and Patel and McVey have more support then Philip Hammond

Priti Patel of course did not even vote for May's Deal the third time it was put to the Commons unlike Boris, Raab and McVey and is a No Deal Brexit diehard like Mark Francois

Roger · April 2019

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:
@JosiasJessop FPT

If you’d read the thread I didn’t name my source originally

I had a rather rude response from ManchesterKurt. So I sourced the comment. Not gratuitous.

Andy was a client at the time (or at least Boots was) and I haven’t seen him since he quit to run GalaCoral in 2011.
The problem you face, Charles, is that sometimes when you namedrop to support a 'fact', the fact you're supporting is wrong. It's happened a couple of times, and it doesn't matter how important you claim the person who told you something was, the facts were still wrong.

You should take a leaf from RCS's book; he does it sparingly and with style.

But in the spirit of comradeship, a happy Easter Monday to you and all PBers! I hope you'll all enjoy the sunshine before work subsumes most of us once more ...
An unpleasant post. This site benefits greatly from the insights of its posters.
Considering you once lambasted me for writing long posts, that's a bit rich!

I love non sequiturs.......

Every time I hear 'Esther McVey' I'm reminded of a casting I once did for a young girl in Liverpool.

Her Mother said " She's just won a competition y'know!"

"That's great!" I said "What was the competition?"

"Miss Bootle Rose"

Nigelb · April 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

JosiasJessop said:

malcolmg said:

JosiasJessop said:
If the answer to the question is Boris, then we're probably asking the wrong question.
I would only disagree if the alternative was that snake in the grass Gove, otherwise I am with you.
I'm in the odd position of quite liking Boris's personality, whilst thinking he'd make a terrible PM. Whilst I dislike Gove's personality, but think he might make a reasonable PM ...

There's a difference between liking someone, or even agreeing with their views, and thinking they'd be good in a particular role.
I suspect Michael Gove would be engaging company. He has an endlessly enquiring mind. That’s not necessarily a good thing in a politician.

I don’t think that quite accurate, as enquiring minds are seldom convinced they know the answers to everything.

edmundintokyo · April 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

On what prospectus is any leader going to unite the Parliamentary party?

Renegotiate? Seems to work until you actually have to try and do it. So promise to renegotiate, then call a GE to get a mandate for your renegotiation. If you win you get another 5 years, and hopefully a majority and some political capital that you can spend passing TMay's deal.

TGOHF · April 2019

Gove.

He would make an effective chief of staff. Definitely a great CoTE .

Has he got the sales pitch for middle ground non Con voters ? Not sure.

kle4 · April 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

JosiasJessop said:

malcolmg said:

JosiasJessop said:
If the answer to the question is Boris, then we're probably asking the wrong question.
I would only disagree if the alternative was that snake in the grass Gove, otherwise I am with you.
I'm in the odd position of quite liking Boris's personality, whilst thinking he'd make a terrible PM. Whilst I dislike Gove's personality, but think he might make a reasonable PM ...

There's a difference between liking someone, or even agreeing with their views, and thinking they'd be good in a particular role.
I suspect Michael Gove would be engaging company. He has an endlessly enquiring mind. That’s not necessarily a good thing in a politician.

Hes not been successful everywhere as a result. But I do think him more interesting than most because he has genuine ideas and works hard to achieve them, and he even puts in effort when he changes position rather than turtle up like so many others in the Cabinet

SquareRoot · April 2019

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:
Boris Johnson surges to a big lead in the new Conservative Home next Tory leader Tory members poll putting on 10% to reach 32%, 18 percent ahead of second placed Raab on 14%.

Gove is third on 8%, Hunt 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 4%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/next-tory-leader-our-survey-johnson-dominates-the-table-he-puts-on-ten-points-and-leads-by-eighteen.html
I just dont get his appeal anymore. His schtick is stale and overblown, he is not ideologically pure, he's not particularly competent and he seems to have no plan for anything. Hes not a new face and he even ended up voting for the deal, blowing apart the refrain that it is not Brexit (just that it is a crap Brexit).

And yet he is the most popular generally. It's weird.

"poll surge." LOL.

edmundintokyo · April 2019

HYUFD said:

What is clear is all the current Cabinet are contaminated by May with the membership and have not got a hope, if not Boris look for a hard Brexiteer backbencher like Priti Patel, Raab or McVey.

That's quite a selection, I guess the membership like them dim?

Jonathan · April 2019

kle4 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

JosiasJessop said:

malcolmg said:

JosiasJessop said:
If the answer to the question is Boris, then we're probably asking the wrong question.
I would only disagree if the alternative was that snake in the grass Gove, otherwise I am with you.
I'm in the odd position of quite liking Boris's personality, whilst thinking he'd make a terrible PM. Whilst I dislike Gove's personality, but think he might make a reasonable PM ...

There's a difference between liking someone, or even agreeing with their views, and thinking they'd be good in a particular role.
I suspect Michael Gove would be engaging company. He has an endlessly enquiring mind. That’s not necessarily a good thing in a politician.
Hes not bene successfuk everywhere as a result. But I do think him more interesting than most because he has genuine ideas and works hard to achieve them, and he even puts in effort when he changes position rather than turtle up like so many others in the Cabinet

Gove never left the Oxford Union. That’s his problem. The ultimate student politician.

HYUFD · April 2019

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:
Boris Johnson surges to a big lead in the new Conservative Home next Tory leader Tory members poll putting on 10% to reach 32%, 18 percent ahead of second placed Raab on 14%.

Gove is third on 8%, Hunt 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 4%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/next-tory-leader-our-survey-johnson-dominates-the-table-he-puts-on-ten-points-and-leads-by-eighteen.html
I just dont get his appeal anymore. His schtick is stale and overblown, he is not ideologically pure, he's not particularly competent and he seems to have no plan for anything. Hes not a new face and he even ended up voting for the deal, blowing apart the refrain that it is not Brexit (just that it is a crap Brexit).

And yet he is the most popular generally. It's weird.

Boris is probably the Tories only chance now to beat Corbyn, it is that simple.

He has charisma and can win back voters lost to the Brexit Party and Boris only voted for the Deal the third time after voting against it twice as he correctly pointed out the alternative was probably not No Deal but further extension of Article 50 and possibly no Brexit at all

AlastairMeeks · April 2019

edmundintokyo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

On what prospectus is any leader going to unite the Parliamentary party?
Renegotiate? Seems to work until you actually have to try and do it. So promise to renegotiate, then call a GE to get a mandate for your renegotiation. If you win you get another 5 years, and hopefully a majority and some political capital that you can spend passing TMay's deal.

The killer for the Conservatives is that the candidates are all going to have to set out their views on no deal. They can please the membership or they can command the confidence of the House of Commons. They can’t do both.

kle4 · April 2019

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:
@JosiasJessop FPT

If you’d read the thread I didn’t name my source originally

I had a rather rude response from ManchesterKurt. So I sourced the comment. Not gratuitous.

Andy was a client at the time (or at least Boots was) and I haven’t seen him since he quit to run GalaCoral in 2011.
The problem you face, Charles, is that sometimes when you namedrop to support a 'fact', the fact you're supporting is wrong. It's happened a couple of times, and it doesn't matter how important you claim the person who told you something was, the facts were still wrong.

You should take a leaf from RCS's book; he does it sparingly and with style.

But in the spirit of comradeship, a happy Easter Monday to you and all PBers! I hope you'll all enjoy the sunshine before work subsumes most of us once more ...
An unpleasant post. This site benefits greatly from the insights of its posters.
Considering you once lambasted me for writing long posts, that's a bit rich!

Long posts are not good? Gods, I must be in trouble.

Jonathan · April 2019

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:
Boris Johnson surges to a big lead in the new Conservative Home next Tory leader Tory members poll putting on 10% to reach 32%, 18 percent ahead of second placed Raab on 14%.

Gove is third on 8%, Hunt 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 4%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/next-tory-leader-our-survey-johnson-dominates-the-table-he-puts-on-ten-points-and-leads-by-eighteen.html
I just dont get his appeal anymore. His schtick is stale and overblown, he is not ideologically pure, he's not particularly competent and he seems to have no plan for anything. Hes not a new face and he even ended up voting for the deal, blowing apart the refrain that it is not Brexit (just that it is a crap Brexit).

And yet he is the most popular generally. It's weird.
Boris is probably the Tories only chance now to beat Corbyn, it is that simple.

He has charisma and can win back voters lost to the Brexit Party and he only voted for the Deal the third time after voting against it twice as he correctly pointed out the alternative was probably not No Deal but further extension of Article 50 and possibly no Brexit at all

In short, a snake oil salesman.

AlastairMeeks · April 2019

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:
Boris Johnson surges to a big lead in the new Conservative Home next Tory leader Tory members poll putting on 10% to reach 32%, 18 percent ahead of second placed Raab on 14%.

Gove is third on 8%, Hunt 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 4%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/next-tory-leader-our-survey-johnson-dominates-the-table-he-puts-on-ten-points-and-leads-by-eighteen.html
I just dont get his appeal anymore. His schtick is stale and overblown, he is not ideologically pure, he's not particularly competent and he seems to have no plan for anything. Hes not a new face and he even ended up voting for the deal, blowing apart the refrain that it is not Brexit (just that it is a crap Brexit).

And yet he is the most popular generally. It's weird.
Boris is probably the Tories only chance now to beat Corbyn, it is that simple.

He has charisma and can win back voters lost to the Brexit Party and he only voted for the Deal the third time after voting against it twice as he correctly pointed out the alternative was probably not No Deal but further extension of Article 50 and possibly no Brexit at all

He's the best known and the most disliked. In what way does that make him a good chance? The public know him and loathe him.

HYUFD · April 2019

edmundintokyo said:

HYUFD said:

What is clear is all the current Cabinet are contaminated by May with the membership and have not got a hope, if not Boris look for a hard Brexiteer backbencher like Priti Patel, Raab or McVey.
That's quite a selection, I guess the membership like them dim?

Given Corbyn is hardly a Mensa member himself that does not matter too much

Jonathan · April 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

edmundintokyo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

On what prospectus is any leader going to unite the Parliamentary party?
Renegotiate? Seems to work until you actually have to try and do it. So promise to renegotiate, then call a GE to get a mandate for your renegotiation. If you win you get another 5 years, and hopefully a majority and some political capital that you can spend passing TMay's deal.
The killer for the Conservatives is that the candidates are all going to have to set out their views on no deal. They can please the membership or they can command the confidence of the House of Commons. They can’t do both.

They can. Remember that people usually win the Tory leadership because of who they are not, rather than who they are.

JosiasJessop · April 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

JosiasJessop said:

malcolmg said:

JosiasJessop said:
If the answer to the question is Boris, then we're probably asking the wrong question.
I would only disagree if the alternative was that snake in the grass Gove, otherwise I am with you.
I'm in the odd position of quite liking Boris's personality, whilst thinking he'd make a terrible PM. Whilst I dislike Gove's personality, but think he might make a reasonable PM ...

There's a difference between liking someone, or even agreeing with their views, and thinking they'd be good in a particular role.
I suspect Michael Gove would be engaging company. He has an endlessly enquiring mind. That’s not necessarily a good thing in a politician.

I think both Gove and Boris would be engaging company. I think Gove might listen and even be persuadable, when Boris would agree with everything you say, and then go off and do what'd enrich him and his friends ...

HYUFD · April 2019

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:
Boris Johnson surges to a big lead in the new Conservative Home next Tory leader Tory members poll putting on 10% to reach 32%, 18 percent ahead of second placed Raab on 14%.

Gove is third on 8%, Hunt 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 4%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/next-tory-leader-our-survey-johnson-dominates-the-table-he-puts-on-ten-points-and-leads-by-eighteen.html
I just dont get his appeal anymore. His schtick is stale and overblown, he is not ideologically pure, he's not particularly competent and he seems to have no plan for anything. Hes not a new face and he even ended up voting for the deal, blowing apart the refrain that it is not Brexit (just that it is a crap Brexit).

And yet he is the most popular generally. It's weird.
Boris is probably the Tories only chance now to beat Corbyn, it is that simple.

He has charisma and can win back voters lost to the Brexit Party and he only voted for the Deal the third time after voting against it twice as he correctly pointed out the alternative was probably not No Deal but further extension of Article 50 and possibly no Brexit at all
In short, a snake oil salesman.

As is Corbyn, so what!

HYUFD · April 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:
Boris Johnson surges to a big lead in the new Conservative Home next Tory leader Tory members poll putting on 10% to reach 32%, 18 percent ahead of second placed Raab on 14%.

Gove is third on 8%, Hunt 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 4%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/next-tory-leader-our-survey-johnson-dominates-the-table-he-puts-on-ten-points-and-leads-by-eighteen.html
I just dont get his appeal anymore. His schtick is stale and overblown, he is not ideologically pure, he's not particularly competent and he seems to have no plan for anything. Hes not a new face and he even ended up voting for the deal, blowing apart the refrain that it is not Brexit (just that it is a crap Brexit).

And yet he is the most popular generally. It's weird.
Boris is probably the Tories only chance now to beat Corbyn, it is that simple.

He has charisma and can win back voters lost to the Brexit Party and he only voted for the Deal the third time after voting against it twice as he correctly pointed out the alternative was probably not No Deal but further extension of Article 50 and possibly no Brexit at all
He's the best known and the most disliked. In what way does that make him a good chance? The public know him and loathe him.

Correction, Boris is the most liked of the contenders to succeed May but also the most disliked bar Gove, diehard Remainers like you loathe Boris, most Leavers love Boris and it is the latter not the former the Tories will need to beat Corbyn.

Being a Marmite figure did not stop Trump winning either

TGOHF · April 2019

JosiasJessop said:

AlastairMeeks said:

JosiasJessop said:

malcolmg said:

JosiasJessop said:
If the answer to the question is Boris, then we're probably asking the wrong question.
I would only disagree if the alternative was that snake in the grass Gove, otherwise I am with you.
I'm in the odd position of quite liking Boris's personality, whilst thinking he'd make a terrible PM. Whilst I dislike Gove's personality, but think he might make a reasonable PM ...

There's a difference between liking someone, or even agreeing with their views, and thinking they'd be good in a particular role.
I suspect Michael Gove would be engaging company. He has an endlessly enquiring mind. That’s not necessarily a good thing in a politician.
I think both Gove and Boris would be engaging company. I think Gove might listen and even be persuadable, when Boris would agree with everything you say, and then go off and do what'd enrich him and his friends ...

Whilst shagging your girlfriend.

Jonathan · April 2019

This Tory election will be between the leading Not May candidate and the leading Not Boris candidate.

Nigelb · April 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

edmundintokyo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

On what prospectus is any leader going to unite the Parliamentary party?
Renegotiate? Seems to work until you actually have to try and do it. So promise to renegotiate, then call a GE to get a mandate for your renegotiation. If you win you get another 5 years, and hopefully a majority and some political capital that you can spend passing TMay's deal.
The killer for the Conservatives is that the candidates are all going to have to set out their views on no deal. They can please the membership or they can command the confidence of the House of Commons. They can’t do both.

Do enough Tory MPs realise this to keep May in post until October ?
The excitable No Dealers don’t seem to.

kle4 · April 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

edmundintokyo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

On what prospectus is any leader going to unite the Parliamentary party?
Renegotiate? Seems to work until you actually have to try and do it. So promise to renegotiate, then call a GE to get a mandate for your renegotiation. If you win you get another 5 years, and hopefully a majority and some political capital that you can spend passing TMay's deal.
The killer for the Conservatives is that the candidates are all going to have to set out their views on no deal. They can please the membership or they can command the confidence of the House of Commons. They can’t do both.

This. It's why the focus on May, while warranted due to being crap, feels like a distraction. Tory Members want no deal Brexit, but even if the bulk of their mps agree with that they cannot do anything. Parliament will take control again or god forbid more defect. The only path to no deal is continued paralysis and this time if parliament forces an extension request the EU say no.

Is that really the plan? Or more unicorn selling?

ydoethur · April 2019

TGOHF said:
Gove.

He would make an effective chief of staff. Definitely a great CoTE .

Has he got the sales pitch for middle ground non Con voters ? Not sure.

Oddly, I would agree with that. He's a brilliant administrator, clearly has a wide range of knowledge and interests, and his energy is impressive. Which means when he is right, he is formidable.

However, he has the judgement of a dead stoat, and is too insecure to change his mind unless he is compelled to. So when he gets things wrong, and nobody corrects him, the result is usually an unmitigated catastrophe.

That alone should rule him out of the top job.

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