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Most likely is a Cabinet revolt in the event of disastrous showings (if they are) in the forthcoming Local and European elections. But that scenario probably relies on Cabinet near-unanimity for a short-term successor in a coronation. It won't be Boris.
But if there is a normal election in the new year, Boris's weakness is that he is, and he would make the party, vulnerable to the same sort of attacks the Tories have been making against Corbyn for alleged antisemitism. Every rival candidate would have their SpAds touring the tearooms reminding MPs of this. It is hard to see Boris making the final two in these circumstances, which might explain the kite recently flown about submitting a final four!
Also Boris' last leadership tilt fell apart due to the vespertine treachery of Gove. Events are unlikely to deroule in the same manner this time.
The piece on PB a couple of days ago about the Ulsterization of British politics appears pertinent. We all know what happened in Northern Ireland: the centrist parties were gutted by the radical ones - those more hardline on the dominant Unionist-Nationalist axis. In the same fashion, if the Tories don't stop dithering over the EU then they could find themselves being replaced by the Brexit Party, and it could happen surprisingly quickly.
Just because the Conservatives and Labour have been the two dominant political movements in England throughout living memory, this does not imply that they have some immutable and God-given right to remain so forever. The Liberal Party probably thought it was similarly invulnerable a hundred years ago - and look what happened to it next.
If you’d read the thread I didn’t name my source originally
I had a rather rude response from ManchesterKurt. So I sourced the comment. Not gratuitous.
Andy was a client at the time (or at least Boots was) and I haven’t seen him since he quit to run GalaCoral in 2011.
Lloyd George's tax and reform programme was in fact designed to shoot the Labour fox, although it was at best a partial success.
The Labour talks are surely doomed, both because Labour doesn't want its fingerprints on the corpse and because May would be hugely worse off agreeing with Labour what she could simply allow herself to be forced to do by parliament.
The real problem is that just as the Tories do not have a majority in Parliament there is no majority available inside the PCP either. As with Parliament generally there is a majority opposed to every option and nothing that has a majority in favour. Under any normal circumstances the party would have an extended period in opposition whilst the bodies got buried and a new consensus developed. But given the current leader of the opposition there is an understandable reluctance to accept that.
At present the Conservatives and the DUP have a majority of three. Let’s assume that Boris Johnson is elected leader of the Conservative party. Does he even get to be called to be Prime Minister if a sufficient number of Conservative MPs then resign the whip?
And what would be a sufficient number? There are now over 20 independent MPs. They might not all vote the same way in a vote of no confidence (they probably wouldn’t). If ten Conservative MPs left, however, it is hard to see how Boris Johnson could credibly claim to expect to command the confidence of the House. And it might be a lot more than ten who left.
You should take a leaf from RCS's book; he does it sparingly and with style.
But in the spirit of comradeship, a happy Easter Monday to you and all PBers! I hope you'll all enjoy the sunshine before work subsumes most of us once more ...
Boris would be a bloody awful choice. He's proven himself unfit to be in the Cabinet.
But if you read my posts when I cite a source like that I don’t state the fact is true but that it’s what I have been told. A subtle difference I am sure.
But you seem to have a bee in your bonnet on this topic so have a good bank holiday
Hence why I think the MPs will set up a contest that's either two ex-Remainers trying to outflank each other or Gove vs an ex-Remainer. Which leads me to conclude that Gove may be the party's only hope of medium-term survival.
Here's an interesting article on why fewer trips are being made on London's transport system, despite an increasing population. Similar trends are being seen elsewhere in transport ...
https://thedeveloper.live/places/places/why-are-fewer-people-riding-the-underground-the-reason-is-not-what-you-think-
(Incidentally, if this is seen across the country it might validate an anti-HS2 argument that Richard Tyndall made in a discussion with me about eight or so years ago!)
I don't see how the numbers support two ex-remainers, or prevent a standard bearer for the pure of heart.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/22/tories-schools-austerity-cuts-politicians
I find it hard to believe his change of heart won't get brought up in a leadership bid, which would suggest his chances are significantly lower than it currently appears.
Gove is third on 8%, Hunt 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 4%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/next-tory-leader-our-survey-johnson-dominates-the-table-he-puts-on-ten-points-and-leads-by-eighteen.html
Can’t see Rudd or Greening anywhere either.
Chuckles.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8894996/boris-johnson-topple-theresa-may-tory-leadership/amp/
Then there’s the question of pricing for tickets. Someone going into London only three days a week feels ripped off if they still have to pay for a season ticket that covers them for seven days a week. You hear that complaint in the office all the time already.
Boris is not a good choice however. Too much baggage and doesn’t have the Great Leap Forward required. Just IDS with hair.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), indeed, it's remarkable. Although perhaps a little less than it might be given Hammond's two modes of operation appear to be doom-mongering and invisibility.
According to the latest poll from Yougov 20% of 2017 Tories would vote Brexit Party at the next general election, compared to just 2% who would vote for Corbyn Labour (indeed 2% of 2017 Labour voters have switched to the Tories)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/18/voting-intention-conservatives-29-labour-30-16-17-
https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/1120225704371793921?s=21
Boris is also an egotistical narcissist, who thinks he’s the reincarnation of Churchill and cultivates a bumbling persona to deflect attention from a two decade long campaign to see himself in number 10. That is all he cares about. The man who wrote two articles, one leave one remain, picking the one to get home closer to number ten.
Neither are great potential PMs.
I just dont understand how he could actually achieve something on Brexit which would therefore help the Tories.
Someone completely new is the way to go I think. A big gamble and also had to achieve anything, but a chance to reinvent things
https://twitter.com/alistairburtuk/status/1120080815428337673?s=21
Completely meaningless drivel - people want the issue settled so they can move on.
https://www.bigplanbigchanges.co.uk/easierfares
(It's a terrible website, btw. I hate the scrolling graphics that add nothing to the information being delivered.)
Raab is second to Boris in the latest ConHome Tory members poll and Patel and McVey have more support then Philip Hammond
There's a difference between liking someone, or even agreeing with their views, and thinking they'd be good in a particular role.
And yet he is the most popular generally. It's weird.
Every time I hear 'Esther McVey' I'm reminded of a casting I once did for a young girl in Liverpool.
Her Mother said " She's just won a competition y'know!"
"That's great!" I said "What was the competition?"
"Miss Bootle Rose"
He would make an effective chief of staff. Definitely a great CoTE .
Has he got the sales pitch for middle ground non Con voters ? Not sure.
He has charisma and can win back voters lost to the Brexit Party and Boris only voted for the Deal the third time after voting against it twice as he correctly pointed out the alternative was probably not No Deal but further extension of Article 50 and possibly no Brexit at all
Being a Marmite figure did not stop Trump winning either
The excitable No Dealers don’t seem to.
Is that really the plan? Or more unicorn selling?
However, he has the judgement of a dead stoat, and is too insecure to change his mind unless he is compelled to. So when he gets things wrong, and nobody corrects him, the result is usually an unmitigated catastrophe.
That alone should rule him out of the top job.