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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What does Newport West tell us?
Newport West was the 28th by-election to be held in Wales since the 1950 General Election. Of those 28, twenty have been defended by Labour with only one loss (Carmarthen in 1966) so therefore a Labour hold was pretty much a given. However, that doesn’t mask the fact that Labour should be worried.
Comments
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First like Labour0
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Second like the Tories this time though, I suspect, probably not the next.0
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Wasn’t Copeland a Labour failed defence?0
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3rd like the BREXIT party0
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A couple of weeks ago I was pretty sure Brexit was in the throes of its death rattle.
Not for a moment did I expect Labour to revive it so it could get over the line.
Corbyn will be a hero in the midlands/northern Brexit heartlands.0 -
Entering into long drawn out negotiations with Labour without actually coming to agreement is the best thing Theresa May can do. This means:
- She doesn't trigger her revolting party by agreeing customs unions, second referendums. Labour Party lock etc.
- The European Union can pretend a consensus is being worked on so they can extend indefinitely.
- The rest of us can be grateful that the evil hour is delayed for a few weeks, we are still in the EU and, politics aside, the country still functions more or less normally for the time being.
The one fly in the ointment is the Euro elections. Otherwise we could note the premature blue passports and forget about Brexit for a while - or forever.
(PTC)0 -
There is a near zero chance of Labour winning in Brecon & Radnor.0
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Not in Wales.Mortimer said:Wasn’t Copeland a Labour failed defence?
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I still don't believe it. I think FF43 has a good picture of things. But we'll see.CaptainBuzzkill said:A couple of weeks ago I was pretty sure Brexit was in the throes of its death rattle.
Not for a moment did I expect Labour to revive it so it could get over the line.
Corbyn will be a hero in the midlands/northern Brexit heartlands.0 -
Honestly I doubt this is as bad for Labour as is being made out. Given everybody knew Labour were overwhelming favourites to retain the seat this was a free hit for the disgruntled. Doesn't mean they won't turn out for Labour in closer contests or a GE.0
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FPT
HYUFD said:
» show previous quotes
Yes would be ironic if after all the Scottish whinging over Brexit it was their MPs votes along with most Labour and LD and TIG MPs that cancelled Brexit though it could inflame English nationalism
lol, you are kind of mixed up on who does the whinging. Would be a great laugh if they did and gave the little Englanders a real poke in the eye, some poetic justice.0 -
There's a family legend that on of my ancestors was agent for the Liberals in Radnorshire. Not sure, at all, how true it is and the records seem to be lost.0
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There's a family legend in my family that I once supported Theresa May. Thankfully all records of any such event have been lost.OldKingCole said:There's a family legend that on of my ancestors was agent for the Liberals in Radnorshire. Not sure, at all, how true it is and the records seem to be lost.
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I think Paul Flynn also had a big personal vote so that could explain away some of the fall as well. Paradoxically, given the mess the Tory Government and party is in you would think Labour would be gaining 13% not losing it! To be honest the fact Labour hung onto the seat makes it pretty much a non event. I agree with the thread header that the potential by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire is far more interesting and far more likely to cause an upset in terms of LD win!brokenwheel said:Honestly I doubt this is as bad for Labour as is being made out. Given everybody knew Labour were overwhelming favourites to retain the seat this was a free hit for the disgruntled. Doesn't mean they won't turn out for Labour in closer contests or a GE.
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She sounds so sincere as well.williamglenn said:
Let me explain why I am about to agree implementing Corbyn's policy on Brexit.0 -
On the assumption that there were a by-election I’d be genuinely interested in learning about the subjects that the LDs would campaign on. The impression one gets is that they have, at a national level, become a single-interest pressure group.The_Taxman said:
I think Paul Flynn also had a big personal vote so that could explain away some of the fall as well. Paradoxically, given the mess the Tory Government and party is in you would think Labour would be gaining 13% not losing it! To be honest the fact Labour hung onto the seat makes it pretty much a non event. I agree with the thread header that the potential by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire is far more interesting and far more likely to cause an upset in terms of LD win!brokenwheel said:Honestly I doubt this is as bad for Labour as is being made out. Given everybody knew Labour were overwhelming favourites to retain the seat this was a free hit for the disgruntled. Doesn't mean they won't turn out for Labour in closer contests or a GE.
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After two quiet weeks, quite a list of councillor defections this week:
Aylesbury Vale: Con to Ind Con
Bassetlaw: Con suspended to Ind
Charnwood: Con to Ind
Chichester: Con to LibDem (resigned to by-election)
Fenland: Five Cons to Ind
Hartlepool: Two Lab to Ind
Hertsmere: Con to Ind
Lancaster: Con to Ind
Stratford-on-Avon: Lab to Ind
W Oxfordshire: Lab to Ind
Woking: Con to LibDem0 -
The UKIP revival is overstated. In 2015 over 6,000 people turned out for UKIP in this seat of which barely a third could be bothered to turn out on Thursday.0
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When are Theresa and Jezza going to do their joint press conference in the Downing Street rose garden à la Dave and Nick in 2010?
When are Theresa and Jezza going to do their joint press conference in the Downing Street rose garden à la Dave and Nick in 2010? Jezza should say 'This is what happens when grown-up politicians put their differences aside and embrace cooperation for the higher good' as Theresa gazes lovingly into his eyes while stroking his beard.brendan16 said:
She sounds so sincere as well.williamglenn said:
Let me explain why I am about to agree implementing Corbyn's policy on Brexit.0 -
Tory candidates in local elections wish to be remembered to you...FF43 said:Entering into long drawn out negotiations with Labour without actually coming to agreement is the best thing Theresa May can do. This means:
- She doesn't trigger her revolting party by agreeing customs unions, second referendums. Labour Party lock etc.
- The European Union can pretend a consensus is being worked on so they can extend indefinitely.
- The rest of us can be grateful that the evil hour is delayed for a few weeks, we are still in the EU and, politics aside, the country still functions more or less normally for the time being.
The one fly in the ointment is the Euro elections. Otherwise we could note the premature blue passports and forget about Brexit for a while - or forever.
(PTC)0 -
I'm not keen on this recasting of Rowley Birkin QC.williamglenn said:0 -
If I were the LD I would campaign on sending a protest vote at the way Government and Opposition are failing the country. It does not have to be specific unless something occurs, often people will vote against stuff, the recent increase in pension contributions may be one such issue as it lowers disposable income unless an individual opts out.matt said:
On the assumption that there were a by-election I’d be genuinely interested in learning about the subjects that the LDs would campaign on. The impression one gets is that they have, at a national level, become a single-interest pressure group.The_Taxman said:
I think Paul Flynn also had a big personal vote so that could explain away some of the fall as well. Paradoxically, given the mess the Tory Government and party is in you would think Labour would be gaining 13% not losing it! To be honest the fact Labour hung onto the seat makes it pretty much a non event. I agree with the thread header that the potential by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire is far more interesting and far more likely to cause an upset in terms of LD win!brokenwheel said:Honestly I doubt this is as bad for Labour as is being made out. Given everybody knew Labour were overwhelming favourites to retain the seat this was a free hit for the disgruntled. Doesn't mean they won't turn out for Labour in closer contests or a GE.
I do think given the geographical spread of the seat it might be difficult for the LD to contact enough people to persuade them to protest against the Government & Opposition. The LD do have a good base of support in Brecon and Radnorshire, it is hard to know how much support has evaporated away and will never be tapped again given the Coalition Government. I am not a LD supporter and so am unaware at how their party infrastructure and volunteer numbers have been affected in Wales in the last 9 years!0 -
Always said Theresa was awesome, really appreciate she's putting the country before party.
https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/11149041067354767370 -
That's a very long winded way of saying 'fuck all.'0
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By making a person the tories called a national security risk look like a serious statesman?TheScreamingEagles said:Always said Theresa was awesome, really appreciate she's putting the country before party.
https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1114904106735476737
riiiiight0 -
Don't worry - no one could believe thatDavidL said:
There's a family legend in my family that I once supported Theresa May. Thankfully all records of any such event have been lost.OldKingCole said:There's a family legend that on of my ancestors was agent for the Liberals in Radnorshire. Not sure, at all, how true it is and the records seem to be lost.
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It would be better in a sense if Jeremy gets into number 10 through those sort of votes rather than those of southern poncy types. Or would it? And in what sense exactly?CaptainBuzzkill said:A couple of weeks ago I was pretty sure Brexit was in the throes of its death rattle.
Not for a moment did I expect Labour to revive it so it could get over the line.
Corbyn will be a hero in the midlands/northern Brexit heartlands.0 -
I did not laughTheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not keen on this recasting of Rowley Birkin QC.williamglenn said:
I did not laugh
I did not laugh
Pause
I laughed...
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Amused by the mail you responding to. 1985 was 34 years ago. I wonder if people think “1989s -Thatcher- recent” and forget that’s the same gap gives you, for example,the end of WW2 to 1979. Worlds apart.Floater said:0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.0 -
Just needed #CorbynsCustomsUnion subtitlesbrendan16 said:
She sounds so sincere as well.williamglenn said:
Let me explain why I am about to agree implementing Corbyn's policy on Brexit.0 -
Or indeed, the period of time (give or take six months) between the start of the First World War and the end of the Second World War.matt said:
Amused by the mail you responding to. 1985 was 34 years ago. I wonder if people think “1989s -Thatcher- recent” and forget that’s the same gap gives you, for example,the end of WW2 to 1979. Worlds apart.Floater said:0 -
I have had one and only one policy for 2 years .
So I'll borrow one off the opposition .0 -
This appeared on my recommended list. Thought PB might like it too:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QurCB1lCHp00 -
Why so? Granted it's not ideal for the Brexit romantics as it scuppers their dreams of buccaneering international trade deals, but all those notions now seem something of a luxury. It's now all about face saving (as far as possible) and making the best of a bad job.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.0 -
Doesn't exactly say anything new, does she?williamglenn said:0 -
It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.
Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.
Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.0 -
The answer to the header is “beware of extrapolation from small datasets”.ydoethur said:0 -
Remember, just about, the news of Grimond gaining it. IIRC took for ever for the result to come through.ydoethur said:0 -
Mr. Dawning, voting to leave the EU being interpreted as asking the EU to dictate our trade policy, contrary to both sides in the campaign, is ridiculous.
It also gives them power to harm our economy as they'll be determining our trade policy without any influence whatsoever.
There comes a point where compromise means compromising on the result the voters decided, and the customs union is that point. At least those advocating we remain are more honest and less wretched than those who want us to leave in name only.
I've said all along, include months before the vote, that the customs union was the only 'red line' I had. It's a demented approach.0 -
As a R4 programme explained the Remain/Leave cultural divide isn't the Right/Left cultural divide. By and large, it's the socially liberal and well-educated, e.g. Oxford or Cheltenham vs. the socially-conservative and less-educated, e.g. Plymouth or Portsmouth.kinabalu said:
It would be better in a sense if Jeremy gets into number 10 through those sort of votes rather than those of southern poncy types. Or would it? And in what sense exactly?CaptainBuzzkill said:A couple of weeks ago I was pretty sure Brexit was in the throes of its death rattle.
Not for a moment did I expect Labour to revive it so it could get over the line.
Corbyn will be a hero in the midlands/northern Brexit heartlands.
How about the better-off investigating how the other half live and improving the lives of people instead of pontificating on how 'no-one votes to make themselves poorer'? People vote very strangely if they think they have nothing to lose. Once this is understood, Corbyn can stop talking bollocks about 'a good Brexit'.0 -
No, afraid I am not a LD! I once gave them a second preference for the Police Commissioner job in the PCC elections a few years ago. I did support Remain in the EU referendum but voted Tory in the last GE despite Brexit because of the threat of Corbyn.matt said:
Is that about the LDs? I thought The Taxman is a supporter. Was wrong it appears. Although positive policies didn’t leap out.ydoethur said:That's a very long winded way of saying 'fuck all.'
My comment on the Lib Dem in Brecon and Radnorshire simply reflects the historic strength of the party in that seat. As they say in Financial Services past achievement might not reflect future performance! If there are European elections I think I will vote for 'Change' as I feel they reflect my views on Europe.0 -
"Me, the seventy fifth prime minister of the united kingdom, in a customs union, with the european union, with my reputation? Mmm... hard brexit it is..."TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not keen on this recasting of Rowley Birkin QC.williamglenn said:0 -
In your opinion.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dawning, voting to leave the EU being interpreted as asking the EU to dictate our trade policy, contrary to both sides in the campaign, is ridiculous.
It also gives them power to harm our economy as they'll be determining our trade policy without any influence whatsoever.
There comes a point where compromise means compromising on the result the voters decided, and the customs union is that point. At least those advocating we remain are more honest and less wretched than those who want us to leave in name only.
I've said all along, include months before the vote, that the customs union was the only 'red line' I had. It's a demented approach.
The voters were also assured No Deal wouldn't happen.
There's a reason Gove told the cabinet he did not campaign for a No Deal Brexit.0 -
Judging by the below the line comments of May's tweet, I'd say the deal as it is looking is very fair to both leavers and remainers.0
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Mr. Eagles, obviously that's my opinion. You could add that to every post.
Half-in, half-out, prolongs and deepens the political divide whilst failing to respect the democratic result of the referendum or satisfy those who genuinely believe we must remain in.
It's a pathetic splitting the difference compromise, trying to stand in the middle of chasm instead of the land either side.0 -
It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!TheScreamingEagles said:
It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.
Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.
Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.0 -
I still don't think Labour and the Tories will actually agree anything! They are just going through the motions IMO. Staying in the EU is preferable to some Tories who are Brexit through and through when considering a CU and the rest of Labour's objectives.0
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We're not a football team. We're ten people kicking a ball about on a pitch, with an eleventh in goal...Mexicanpete said:
It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!TheScreamingEagles said:
It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.
Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.
Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here. 0 -
May I politely point out that a R4 programme is not necessarily the best place to find facts. It's more a summary of the chattering-class consensus, which may or may not line up with the truth.rural_voter said:As a R4 programme explained the Remain/Leave cultural divide isn't the Right/Left cultural divide. By and large, it's the socially liberal and well-educated, e.g. Oxford or Cheltenham vs. the socially-conservative and less-educated, e.g. Plymouth or Portsmouth.
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With Mourinho as manager perhaps?viewcode said:
We're not a football team. We're ten people kicking a ball about on a pitch, with an eleventh in goal...Mexicanpete said:
It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!TheScreamingEagles said:
It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.
Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.
Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.0 -
We're in a pathetic and ridiculous situation right now. Most people would probably initially hate it, because they'll be told to hate it, but would accept the new normal quickly enough.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.0 -
All of a sudden Leavers can’t sleep with worry over a Customs Union!
The desperate revision of history is tragic , I doubt the minutae of the CU was discussed over breakfast up and down the country in the EU ref campaign.
As for the ERG are they never not angry about something , indeed I’m surprised they haven’t self combusted given the daily rage they throw out when no wants to play with their unicorns .
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Just imagine how bad it would be if we didn't hold all the cards.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, obviously that's my opinion. You could add that to every post.
Half-in, half-out, prolongs and deepens the political divide whilst failing to respect the democratic result of the referendum or satisfy those who genuinely believe we must remain in.
It's a pathetic splitting the difference compromise, trying to stand in the middle of chasm instead of the land either side.0 -
Interesting that it has Chinese subtitles. I can see President Xi nodding along quite happily with that theme...Morris_Dancer said:This appeared on my recommended list. Thought PB might like it too:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QurCB1lCHp00 -
Yes, probably. Better that than the seeming alternative, that we stand on the edge for another year staring into the chasm and doing nothing. At least something can be done when we land.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, obviously that's my opinion. You could add that to every post.
Half-in, half-out, prolongs and deepens the political divide whilst failing to respect the democratic result of the referendum or satisfy those who genuinely believe we must remain in.
It's a pathetic splitting the difference compromise, trying to stand in the middle of chasm instead of the land either side.0 -
Mr. 67, as I mentioned above, I raised the customs union as literally my only serious red line both before and after the referendum result...
Mr. Eagles, strange sense of condescension from a man who both supported He Who Called The Referendum (and lost it despite every advantage) and who advocated leaving the EU but waiting for a decade more of integration.
The UK negotiation has been terrible due to the incompetence of May, the EU's duplicity (the deal cannot be reopened at all, it's set in stone, unless you want a customs union...), and a significant number of UK politicians who seem to have rather greater regard for the EU than the British electorate.
Mr. Palmer, from the comments, the subtitles (in Chinese, not sure about the English, didn't check) even add Oxford/Cambridge for the university joke.
Yes, Minister (and Yes, Prime Minister) remain utterly excellent. Odd how some comedy ages terribly and others seem timeless.0 -
The only question on the paper was should the UK remain a part of the EU or leave the EU?nico67 said:All of a sudden Leavers can’t sleep with worry over a Customs Union!
The desperate revision of history is tragic , I doubt the minutae of the CU was discussed over breakfast up and down the country in the EU ref campaign.
As for the ERG are they never not angry about something , indeed I’m surprised they haven’t self combusted given the daily rage they throw out when no wants to play with their unicorns .
Everything else was up for grabs. Of course people who had strong views expressed opinions and suggested what the possible results of a vote one way or the other might be but every person who voted leave had to make their overall judgment and what we know is that we decided, by a small majority, to leave.
I voted to leave because I was concerned that QMV would favour the development of EZ centric policies to our detriment over time. I don't recall seeing any posters about it, strangely enough.0 -
Mr. kle4, I would've thought we'd walk in the other direction, but there we are.0
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We have heard a lot about the jingoistic pretensions of the Leave side, and its alleged or real xenophobia
But the Remain side is at least as guilty of gross self-delusion. Carrot-crunchers, urghh.
How did the paunched Remainers ever think they would win a referendum in a society in which there is extensive poverty, poor education, low paid employment and gross & increasing inequality?
Remain need to listen to “The Threepenny Ouverture”.
Now all you gentleman who wish to lead us
Who teach us to desist from mortal sin
Your prior obligation is to feed us
When we’ve had lunch, the preaching can begin.
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That does not seem likely to me.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, I would've thought we'd walk in the other direction, but there we are.
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Rather doubt if Brecon voters will insist on recalling their Tory MP for messing about with invoices, given that he stood to gain absolutely nothing out of it and was basically cutting a corner to avoid having to ask for reinvoicing - reprehensible but not a hanging matter. I wouldn't sign if I lived there. But maybe they will in the current mood.
A few more hours on the doorstep today and yesterday - I'm encountering increasing numbers who say they won't vote for anyone because of Brexit, but as this patch hasn't ben canvassed by us before it's hard to tell who that's hurting. Subjectively the Labour vote feels quite solid, but who knows?0 -
Fair enough I say. As long as it’s stops FOM it delivers on the referendum. Leave were never in with a chance until they majored on immigration, it’s what the whole thing was about.Pulpstar said:Judging by the below the line comments of May's tweet, I'd say the deal as it is looking is very fair to both leavers and remainers.
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You need to stop misrepresenting me.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 67, as I mentioned above, I raised the customs union as literally my only serious red line both before and after the referendum result...
Mr. Eagles, strange sense of condescension from a man who both supported He Who Called The Referendum (and lost it despite every advantage) and who advocated leaving the EU but waiting for a decade more of integration.
The UK negotiation has been terrible due to the incompetence of May, the EU's duplicity (the deal cannot be reopened at all, it's set in stone, unless you want a customs union...), and a significant number of UK politicians who seem to have rather greater regard for the EU than the British electorate.
Mr. Palmer, from the comments, the subtitles (in Chinese, not sure about the English, didn't check) even add Oxford/Cambridge for the university joke.
Yes, Minister (and Yes, Prime Minister) remain utterly excellent. Odd how some comedy ages terribly and others seem timeless.
I said if the situation changed then we'd leave alongside a few other countries which would make things easier in leaving.
I did point out at the time when we joined we had a seven year transition, something we should have done on the way out.0 -
It's worse than that.DavidL said:
With Mourinho as manager perhaps?viewcode said:
We're not a football team. We're ten people kicking a ball about on a pitch, with an eleventh in goal...Mexicanpete said:
It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!TheScreamingEagles said:
It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.
Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.
Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.
https://twitter.com/scotsunsport/status/11139245584641474560 -
Oh lord. Can we not just say we're really, really sorry to Gordon and would he please come back?Theuniondivvie said:
It's worse than that.DavidL said:
With Mourinho as manager perhaps?viewcode said:
We're not a football team. We're ten people kicking a ball about on a pitch, with an eleventh in goal...Mexicanpete said:
It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!TheScreamingEagles said:
It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.
Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.
Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.
https://twitter.com/scotsunsport/status/11139245584641474560 -
He's never getting a job ever again.DavidL said:
Oh lord. Can we not just say we're really, really sorry to Gordon and would he please come back?Theuniondivvie said:
It's worse than that.DavidL said:
With Mourinho as manager perhaps?viewcode said:
We're not a football team. We're ten people kicking a ball about on a pitch, with an eleventh in goal...Mexicanpete said:
It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!TheScreamingEagles said:
It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.
Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.
Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.
https://twitter.com/scotsunsport/status/1113924558464147456
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/07/gordon-strachan-will-not-appear-on-sky-again-after-adam-johnson-remarks0 -
I don't think any UK politicians have a higher regard for the EU than the British electorate. UK politicians who oppose Brexit generally believe the economic fortunes of the country are better within the EU rather than outside it. One can argue that maintaining a stronger economy within the EU as we are at the moment means we can project more power on the world stage in the guise of hard military power (Two brand new aircraft carriers and their complement of state of the art fighter jets) and the soft power of international development aid. Being in the EU has worked for Britain economically, we can only speculate what possibilities outside the protective fortress of the Single Market & CU may usher in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 67, as I mentioned above, I raised the customs union as literally my only serious red line both before and after the referendum result...
Mr. Eagles, strange sense of condescension from a man who both supported He Who Called The Referendum (and lost it despite every advantage) and who advocated leaving the EU but waiting for a decade more of integration.
The UK negotiation has been terrible due to the incompetence of May, the EU's duplicity (the deal cannot be reopened at all, it's set in stone, unless you want a customs union...), and a significant number of UK politicians who seem to have rather greater regard for the EU than the British electorate.
Mr. Palmer, from the comments, the subtitles (in Chinese, not sure about the English, didn't check) even add Oxford/Cambridge for the university joke.
Yes, Minister (and Yes, Prime Minister) remain utterly excellent. Odd how some comedy ages terribly and others seem timeless.0 -
I keep forgetting that Leavers are jut-jawed twentysomethings with creatine-enhanced musculature, good hair, skin and teeth, and a thousand-yard stare...YBarddCwsc said:...How did the paunched Remainers...
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I don't know enough about football to judge whether the analogy is good..DavidL said:
With Mourinho as manager perhaps?viewcode said:
We're not a football team. We're ten people kicking a ball about on a pitch, with an eleventh in goal...Mexicanpete said:
It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!TheScreamingEagles said:
It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.
Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.
Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.
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It's a pretty stupid comment badly phrased but really? People are too precious.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's never getting a job ever again.DavidL said:
Oh lord. Can we not just say we're really, really sorry to Gordon and would he please come back?Theuniondivvie said:
It's worse than that.DavidL said:
With Mourinho as manager perhaps?viewcode said:
We're not a football team. We're ten people kicking a ball about on a pitch, with an eleventh in goal...Mexicanpete said:
It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!TheScreamingEagles said:
It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.
Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.
Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.
https://twitter.com/scotsunsport/status/1113924558464147456
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/07/gordon-strachan-will-not-appear-on-sky-again-after-adam-johnson-remarks0 -
I agree with that. I wouldn’t sign (and I have never voted Tory and have occasionally voted LibDem).NickPalmer said:Rather doubt if Brecon voters will insist on recalling their Tory MP for messing about with invoices, given that he stood to gain absolutely nothing out of it and was basically cutting a corner to avoid having to ask for reinvoicing - reprehensible but not a hanging matter. I wouldn't sign if I lived there. But maybe they will in the current mood.
A few more hours on the doorstep today and yesterday - I'm encountering increasing numbers who say they won't vote for anyone because of Brexit, but as this patch hasn't ben canvassed by us before it's hard to tell who that's hurting. Subjectively the Labour vote feels quite solid, but who knows?
And the huge size of Brecon and Radnor does not help. As I understand it, you have to get to designated signing places to sign the recall petition. No one but a LibDem fanatic is going to drive 40 miles to do that in B & R. There is little public transport in rural Wales, it could take most of a day to get to a signing place and back via buses if you live anywhere remote.
I don’t think the LibDems have yet understood why they are in retreat in Mid Wales (in both Westminster and the Assembly), so I am pretty sceptical whether they will even win a by-election (even if one is held).
2017 was the first election in Wales in which no Liberal/LibDem MP was returned for centuries. The LibDems need to understand that fact first, before blathering about taking Brecon and Radnor.0 -
I'll have you know that my Fitbit says I have "very good" cardiovascular fitness for my age. If I could get rid of my paunch it would "excellent".viewcode said:
I keep forgetting that Leavers are jut-jawed twentysomethings with creatine-enhanced musculature, good hair, skin and teeth, and a thousand-yard stare...YBarddCwsc said:...How did the paunched Remainers...
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It's why I don't hang out with other Leavers, my lack of adherence to the general look makes me stand out all the more.viewcode said:
I keep forgetting that Leavers are jut-jawed twentysomethings with creatine-enhanced musculature, good hair, skin and teeth, and a thousand-yard stare...YBarddCwsc said:...How did the paunched Remainers...
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Think of Farage and Francois as the portraits in the attic for the Brexi-hunks.viewcode said:
I keep forgetting that Leavers are jut-jawed twentysomethings with creatine-enhanced musculature, good hair, skin and teeth, and a thousand-yard stare...YBarddCwsc said:...How did the paunched Remainers...
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Unfortunately, it was out of date as it was written. If you cross-reference the jokes to their real-life inspirations, it's based on a lot of 60's and 70's references. In the 80's and 90's the civil service was being shaken up, and these days the concept of a hypercompetent civil servant secretary guiding a befuddled minister is pretty much absent (unfortunately, IMHO). "The Thick of It" and "In The Loop" were much better in terms of reflecting reality.Morris_Dancer said:Yes, Minister (and Yes, Prime Minister) remain utterly excellent. Odd how some comedy ages terribly and others seem timeless.
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I can only pause in admiration...kle4 said:
It's why I don't hang out with other Leavers, my lack of adherence to the general look makes me stand out all the more.viewcode said:
I keep forgetting that Leavers are jut-jawed twentysomethings with creatine-enhanced musculature, good hair, skin and teeth, and a thousand-yard stare...YBarddCwsc said:...How did the paunched Remainers...
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Sensible chap.Scott_P said:
The article contains the line: "It’s a decision which will not just viscerally impact the lives of our children. But also our children’s children."
I am afraid to say children's children will be far too worried about extreme climate collapse to care about the EU decision.0 -
Silk purse meet sow’s ear.Theuniondivvie said:
It's worse than that.DavidL said:
With Mourinho as manager perhaps?viewcode said:
We're not a football team. We're ten people kicking a ball about on a pitch, with an eleventh in goal...Mexicanpete said:
It's not a bloody customs union, it's a dove-tailed tariff alignment for goodness sake!TheScreamingEagles said:
It is all thanks to the ERG and DUP.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Customs union would be pathetic and ridiculous.
Had they voted for the deal on the 29th she wouldn’t need to sign up to I can’t believe it’s not a customs union.
Steve Baker, Private Francois et al deserves gongs for getting us here.
https://twitter.com/scotsunsport/status/11139245584641474560 -
Unsarcastically, have you tried swimming? It works really well if you can stick to a routine.DavidL said:
I'll have you know that my Fitbit says I have "very good" cardiovascular fitness for my age. If I could get rid of my paunch it would "excellent".viewcode said:
I keep forgetting that Leavers are jut-jawed twentysomethings with creatine-enhanced musculature, good hair, skin and teeth, and a thousand-yard stare...YBarddCwsc said:...How did the paunched Remainers...
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That’s well worth a read.Scott_P said:
Finally – and without naming them – I must state that there are many MPs (and not a few journalists) still marching under the Brexit banner who will read this article with a sympathy and support they do not feel able to declare. They too have changed their minds.0 -
The squat challenge is good too, not that I have done it for yearsviewcode said:
Unsarcastically, have you tried swimming? It works really well if you can stick to a routine.DavidL said:
I'll have you know that my Fitbit says I have "very good" cardiovascular fitness for my age. If I could get rid of my paunch it would "excellent".viewcode said:
I keep forgetting that Leavers are jut-jawed twentysomethings with creatine-enhanced musculature, good hair, skin and teeth, and a thousand-yard stare...YBarddCwsc said:...How did the paunched Remainers...
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Wow didn’t see that coming ! Unfortunately Mr Oborne will now be rounded on by the Brexit zealots who will attack the messenger ignoring his very thoughtful article .Scott_P said:
It’s hard to accept you’re wrong so all credit to him for doing so.0 -
Theresa: Just tell me one thing, Jeremy. You're going out there to destroy the ERG, right. Not to study, not to vote alongside them. But to wipe them out!The_Taxman said:I still don't think Labour and the Tories will actually agree anything! They are just going through the motions IMO. Staying in the EU is preferable to some Tories who are Brexit through and through when considering a CU and the rest of Labour's objectives.
Jeremy: That's the plan. You have my word on that!
Theresa: All right, I'm in!0 -
+1nico67 said:
Wow didn’t see that coming ! Unfortunately Mr Oborne will now be rounded on by the Brexit zealots who will attack the messenger ignoring his very thoughtful article .Scott_P said:
It’s hard to accept you’re wrong so all credit to him for doing so.
When is it appearing in the Mail?0 -
For sure, the Leavers are Hook-Finger Jacob and Robert the Saw and Wally the Weeper.viewcode said:
I keep forgetting that Leavers are jut-jawed twentysomethings with creatine-enhanced musculature, good hair, skin and teeth, and a thousand-yard stare...YBarddCwsc said:...How did the paunched Remainers...
And they are led by Macheath and Peachum who will happily betray them (they are good approximations to Farage and Francois).
But, Brecht would have understand instinctively why you could not win something like the 2016 Referendum in such a discontented and unequal society as ours.
Many Remainers can’t. They are as deluded as the worst jingoists on the Leave side.0 -
Basically nobody knows what's going on and spin doctors swear a lot?viewcode said:"The Thick of It" and "In The Loop" were much better in terms of reflecting reality.
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Peter Oborne is talking bollocks, he writesScott_P said:
As the end has come closer she’s turned into a shapeshifter, like the android assassin in the final stages of the second ‘Terminator’ film, moving desperately from one Brexit model to another.
ANDROID? He was a cyborg.0 -
Being second to the Tories in the current climate is a good start.YBarddCwsc said:
I agree with that. I wouldn’t sign (and I have never voted Tory and have occasionally voted LibDem).NickPalmer said:Rather doubt if Brecon voters will insist on recalling their Tory MP for messing about with invoices, given that he stood to gain absolutely nothing out of it and was basically cutting a corner to avoid having to ask for reinvoicing - reprehensible but not a hanging matter. I wouldn't sign if I lived there. But maybe they will in the current mood.
A few more hours on the doorstep today and yesterday - I'm encountering increasing numbers who say they won't vote for anyone because of Brexit, but as this patch hasn't ben canvassed by us before it's hard to tell who that's hurting. Subjectively the Labour vote feels quite solid, but who knows?
And the huge size of Brecon and Radnor does not help. As I understand it, you have to get to designated signing places to sign the recall petition. No one but a LibDem fanatic is going to drive 40 miles to do that in B & R. There is little public transport in rural Wales, it could take most of a day to get to a signing place and back via buses if you live anywhere remote.
I don’t think the LibDems have yet understood why they are in retreat in Mid Wales (in both Westminster and the Assembly), so I am pretty sceptical whether they will even win a by-election (even if one is held).
2017 was the first election in Wales in which no Liberal/LibDem MP was returned for centuries. The LibDems need to understand that fact first, before blathering about taking Brecon and Radnor.0 -
Perhaps slightly more thought could be given as to why you are down to zero MPs, 1 AM and are the fifth party in Wales ?IanB2 said:
Being second to the Tories in the current climate is a good start.YBarddCwsc said:
I agree with that. I wouldn’t sign (and I have never voted Tory and have occasionally voted LibDem).NickPalmer said:Rather doubt if Brecon voters will insist on recalling their Tory MP for messing about with invoices, given that he stood to gain absolutely nothing out of it and was basically cutting a corner to avoid having to ask for reinvoicing - reprehensible but not a hanging matter. I wouldn't sign if I lived there. But maybe they will in the current mood.
A few more hours on the doorstep today and yesterday - I'm encountering increasing numbers who say they won't vote for anyone because of Brexit, but as this patch hasn't ben canvassed by us before it's hard to tell who that's hurting. Subjectively the Labour vote feels quite solid, but who knows?
And the huge size of Brecon and Radnor does not help. As I understand it, you have to get to designated signing places to sign the recall petition. No one but a LibDem fanatic is going to drive 40 miles to do that in B & R. There is little public transport in rural Wales, it could take most of a day to get to a signing place and back via buses if you live anywhere remote.
I don’t think the LibDems have yet understood why they are in retreat in Mid Wales (in both Westminster and the Assembly), so I am pretty sceptical whether they will even win a by-election (even if one is held).
2017 was the first election in Wales in which no Liberal/LibDem MP was returned for centuries. The LibDems need to understand that fact first, before blathering about taking Brecon and Radnor.0 -
No, the cyborg was Arnie's character. The T1000 (Robert Patrick) seemed to have no organic parts.TheScreamingEagles said:
Peter Oborne is talking bollocks, he writesScott_P said:
As the end has come closer she’s turned into a shapeshifter, like the android assassin in the final stages of the second ‘Terminator’ film, moving desperately from one Brexit model to another.
ANDROID? He was a cyborg.0 -
Listen to the audio commentary/special features of T2.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, the cyborg was Arnie's character. The T1000 (Robert Patrick) seemed to have no organic parts.TheScreamingEagles said:
Peter Oborne is talking bollocks, he writesScott_P said:
As the end has come closer she’s turned into a shapeshifter, like the android assassin in the final stages of the second ‘Terminator’ film, moving desperately from one Brexit model to another.
ANDROID? He was a cyborg.
James Cameron calls him a cyborg.
A Porsche to Arnie's tank.0
