politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Tories lost a Brecon and Radnor by-election it could be

AlastairMeeks said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

Nasty Party anyone

I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.

Never say never. The Conservatives have taken a sledgehammer to their coalition. The party that once was the natural home of those voters who valued practical management and economic prudence has discarded those voters. They will not return any time soon.

If Brexit is reversed, they'll need a Clause 4 moment on Europe to convince people they can be trusted not to drag us down this road again.

As I see it, the Tories position rests on 3 things.
1 The economy. People at the bottom are struggling, but aren't losing their jobs or their homes.
2 May. Inexplicably to me, she is the most popular politician in the country. But I am not the target audience.
3 Corbyn. As many regulars will attest, he is a "good enough " reason to vote Tory.

While these 3 apply, they will continue to lead/tie in the polls whatever the splits.
However, we are due a recession. Regardless of Brexit it is time. And the international outlook doesn't look great.
Mays time is pretty much up. She can only limp on for so long. She has alienated too many in her own Party. Whosoever follows will probably be not as popular, especially after a likely brutal contest to succeed.
Any other leader for Labour than the 70 yo incumbent will, by contrast, be more electorally palatable for potential switchers.
It is like a 3 legged stool. Kick away one of these legs, and you can remain upright with effort. 2, and you need to be a circus acrobat. All 3, and you'll end up on your arse in a heap.

So I have been out canvassing in the local elections today in my part of Norfolk - for my own seat. We have boundary changes in our Council so there is less incumbent advantage and I focused on the 'new' part of my ward where I am unknown. I should say that I'm standing for the Conservatives. It's my 5th election campaign so I know a little bit about canvassing. And I know my way around the system.

I was astonished by the response on the doorstep. Contrary to what I was expecting, the response on the doorstep for the LOCAL elections was much warmer, even enthusiastic for the Tories - with no softness at all. There is total disdain for what's going on in London, but as most agreed, there's a world of difference between Wacton [a village in our parts] and Westminster.

Collecting the bins has nothing to do with Brexit. We'll be cleaning the streets, finding homes for the homeless, investing in sports and leisure and ensuring public safety whether Brexit happens or not. This message resonated strongly.

Also notable was, of the five LibDems on my canvass sheet, none said they would be voting LibDem this time. That really surprised me. And the traditional Labour vote in this village location was extraordinarily soft - with half of them saying that they would either stay at home or even consider the Conservatives. Another surprising outcome based on real-life contact with real voters.

Yes, there is a meme that the Conservative Party is finished. Based on my evidence this afternoon, that's bunkum. The electorate is clearly more discriminating and sophisticated than the media will have. And more resiliant to the Conservative message in an environment where the LibDems and Labour have alienated their natural base.

Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

Nasty Party anyone

I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.

Scottish Labour say hello.

Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.

Thanks @bunnco - good luck for 2nd May!

I am hearing the same from party friends in other parts of the country. The constellation of our support is changing, but it is not collapsing.

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

Nasty Party anyone

I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.

Scottish Labour say hello.

Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.

I think the Tory Party is vulnerable on its centre left flank with voters put off by it all.

I think things are fragmenting and we could see a lot of MPs elected on say 25% of the vote.

We don't have to be replaced by UKIP/The Brexit Party, think of it more like the reverse of the SDP helping the Tories in 1983.

bunnco said:

So I have been out canvassing in the local elections today in my part of Norfolk - for my own seat. We have boundary changes in our Council so there is less incumbent advantage and I focused on the 'new' part of my ward where I am unknown. I should say that I'm standing for the Conservatives. It's my 5th election campaign so I know a little bit about canvassing. And I know my way around the system.

I was astonished by the response on the doorstep. Contrary to what I was expecting, the response on the doorstep for the LOCAL elections was much warmer, even enthusiastic for the Tories - with no softness at all. There is total disdain for what's going on in London, but as most agreed, there's a world of difference between Wacton [a village in our parts] and Westminster.

Collecting the bins has nothing to do with Brexit. We'll be cleaning the streets, finding homes for the homeless, investing in sports and leisure and ensuring public safety whether Brexit happens or not. This message resonated strongly.

Also notable was, of the five LibDems on my canvass sheet, none said they would be voting LibDem this time. That really surprised me. And the traditional Labour vote in this village location was extraordinarily soft - with half of them saying that they would either stay at home or even consider the Conservatives. Another surprising outcome based on real-life contact with real voters.

Yes, there is a meme that the Conservative Party is finished. Based on my evidence this afternoon, that's bunkum. The electorate is clearly more discriminating and sophisticated than the media will have. And more resiliant to the Conservative message in an environment where the LibDems and Labour have alienated their natural base.

Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.

I've always thought that in this big round of local elections in the Shires, the number of candidates being fielded is an indication of how parties will do. Labour and the Lib Dems are not contesting seats which they were contesting in the nineties.

rkrkrk said:

Jeremy Hunt or Sajid Javid are probably much better qualified potential leaders than Cameron was.

That's settting the bar pretty low, in all fairness. It's like saying somebody has greater personal integrity than Alistair Campbell.

Sean_F said:

I've always thought that in this big round of local elections in the Shires, the number of candidates being fielded is an indication of how parties will do. Labour and the Lib Dems are not contesting seats which they were contesting in the nineties.

Ah the 90s, when the Tories lost 2,000 council seats in a night.

bunnco said:

So I have been out canvassing in the local elections today in my part of Norfolk - for my own seat. We have boundary changes in our Council so there is less incumbent advantage and I focused on the 'new' part of my ward where I am unknown. I should say that I'm standing for the Conservatives. It's my 5th election campaign so I know a little bit about canvassing. And I know my way around the system.

I was astonished by the response on the doorstep. Contrary to what I was expecting, the response on the doorstep for the LOCAL elections was much warmer, even enthusiastic for the Tories - with no softness at all. There is total disdain for what's going on in London, but as most agreed, there's a world of difference between Wacton [a village in our parts] and Westminster.

Collecting the bins has nothing to do with Brexit. We'll be cleaning the streets, finding homes for the homeless, investing in sports and leisure and ensuring public safety whether Brexit happens or not. This message resonated strongly.

Also notable was, of the five LibDems on my canvass sheet, none said they would be voting LibDem this time. That really surprised me. And the traditional Labour vote in this village location was extraordinarily soft - with half of them saying that they would either stay at home or even consider the Conservatives. Another surprising outcome based on real-life contact with real voters.

Yes, there is a meme that the Conservative Party is finished. Based on my evidence this afternoon, that's bunkum. The electorate is clearly more discriminating and sophisticated than the media will have. And more resiliant to the Conservative message in an environment where the LibDems and Labour have alienated their natural base.

Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.

Are you in Norman Lamb's seat?

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SimonFRCox/status/1114601406546239488

The two statements are in no way incompatible and it is dishonest to try and portray them as such. It is perfectly logical to say that the case for leaving is overwhelming but also that it neds to be done with great care in a phased and graduated way. Indeed some Leavers have been saying this all along.

ydoethur said:

rkrkrk said:

Jeremy Hunt or Sajid Javid are probably much better qualified potential leaders than Cameron was.

That's settting the bar pretty low, in all fairness. It's like saying somebody has greater personal integrity than Alistair Campbell.

Well you'll know better than me, but if either becomes the next PM I would have thought their CV would fare favourably with most of our prime ministers on obtaining the job. Both have had very successful business careers from the looks of it.

CaptainBuzzkill said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I’m disappointed you didn’t capitalise Will and People. It would be in accordance with the rest of your posting.

Deary me, is that the best strawman you can knock up.

I'm getting the impression you may be the forum cretin.

Glad to see you are getting the hang of the place already. Though to be honest he is more of the forum troll

Oh and welcome.

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Never say never. The Conservatives have taken a sledgehammer to their coalition. The party that once was the natural home of those voters who valued practical management and economic prudence has discarded those voters. They will not return any time soon.

Didn't a recent poll showed a majority preferred No Deal to Remain?

No that was more lies from the ERG . YouGov found only 26% would prefer no deal as an outcome . Indeed YouGov were so disgusted with the misreporting of their poll they put out a press release .

dixiedean said:

As I see it, the Tories position rests on 3 things.
1 The economy. People at the bottom are struggling, but aren't losing their jobs or their homes.
2 May. Inexplicably to me, she is the most popular politician in the country. But I am not the target audience.
3 Corbyn. As many regulars will attest, he is a "good enough " reason to vote Tory.

While these 3 apply, they will continue to lead/tie in the polls whatever the splits.
However, we are due a recession. Regardless of Brexit it is time. And the international outlook doesn't look great.
Mays time is pretty much up. She can only limp on for so long. She has alienated too many in her own Party. Whosoever follows will probably be not as popular, especially after a likely brutal contest to succeed.
Any other leader for Labour than the 70 yo incumbent will, by contrast, be more electorally palatable for potential switchers.
It is like a 3 legged stool. Kick away one of these legs, and you can remain upright with effort. 2, and you need to be a circus acrobat. All 3, and you'll end up on your arse in a heap.

I basically agree except for the point about Corbyn. The strength of opposition is based on dislike/fear of the "hard left" takeover of Labour not just Corbyn's weaknesses. He actually has personal characteristics that appeal to some voters. There are plenty of potential Labour leaders that would score as badly or worse than JC. McDonell is cleverer, more articulate and a better interviewee but would he get more support? I doubt it. There are plenty in the shadow cabinet who might be contenders but who are palpably useless. Starmer is relatively competent and often named as a potential leader but would he get the dominant left vote internally? Would either Starmer or Thornberry appeal strongly across different groups of voters? Of course against certain potential choices for the Tories they could do relatively well but against others...

Streeter said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SimonFRCox/status/1114601406546239488

The two statements are in no way incompatible and it is dishonest to try and portray them as such. It is perfectly logical to say that the case for leaving is overwhelming but also that it neds to be done with great care in a phased and graduated way. Indeed some Leavers have been saying this all along.

Isn’t underestimating the complexity of Brexit rather a serious mistake for the government to make?

One might even seek to hold senior members of that government responsible and expect them to do the honourable thing and resign.

Terribly old-fashioned I know.

Since he was not a member of the Government until July 2018 it is rather a moot point.

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

Nasty Party anyone

I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.

Scottish Labour say hello.

Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.

The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...

To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.

Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

Nasty Party anyone

I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.

Scottish Labour say hello.

Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.

The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...

To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.

Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?

If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy. Of course you have never been a great advocate of democracy anyway so I understand that doesn't concern you very much.

Sean_F said:

bunnco said:

So I have been out canvassing in the local elections today in my part of Norfolk - for my own seat. We have boundary changes in our Council so there is less incumbent advantage and I focused on the 'new' part of my ward where I am unknown. I should say that I'm standing for the Conservatives. It's my 5th election campaign so I know a little bit about canvassing. And I know my way around the system.

I was astonished by the response on the doorstep. Contrary to what I was expecting, the response on the doorstep for the LOCAL elections was much warmer, even enthusiastic for the Tories - with no softness at all. There is total disdain for what's going on in London, but as most agreed, there's a world of difference between Wacton [a village in our parts] and Westminster.

Collecting the bins has nothing to do with Brexit. We'll be cleaning the streets, finding homes for the homeless, investing in sports and leisure and ensuring public safety whether Brexit happens or not. This message resonated strongly.

Also notable was, of the five LibDems on my canvass sheet, none said they would be voting LibDem this time. That really surprised me. And the traditional Labour vote in this village location was extraordinarily soft - with half of them saying that they would either stay at home or even consider the Conservatives. Another surprising outcome based on real-life contact with real voters.

Yes, there is a meme that the Conservative Party is finished. Based on my evidence this afternoon, that's bunkum. The electorate is clearly more discriminating and sophisticated than the media will have. And more resiliant to the Conservative message in an environment where the LibDems and Labour have alienated their natural base.

Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.

I've always thought that in this big round of local elections in the Shires, the number of candidates being fielded is an indication of how parties will do. Labour and the Lib Dems are not contesting seats which they were contesting in the nineties.

Sean, why do you think that is the case now?

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

How a General Election would look if 18-24's only were allowed to vote:

Seats || Votes

LAB: 541 || 55.0%
SNP: 56 || 4.5%
LDM: 25 || 14.0%
SF: 10 || 0.9%
PLC: 4 || 0.7%
DUP: 4 || 0.4%
CON: 3 || 14.5%
IND: 2
GRN: 1 || 2.0%
UUP: 1 || 0.4%
ALL: 1 || 0.4%
SDLP: 1 || 0.3%

What's your source for that?

Source is @ElectionMapsUK

Rather bizarrely, the three Tory seats appear to be Brecon, Monmouth and Montgomery. Which seems a bit weird; they must be using a different model for Welsh voters.

Scotland is almost all SNP, other than one for Labour and two for the LibDems

England is mostly Labour apart from a sprinkling of LibDems. They have the INDS in East Devon

The small print says the data comes from YouGov, Survation (for Scot and NI), Deltapoll, and ICM for Wales

Thanks.

I'm always a bit suspicious of mixing polls like that.

I suspect the reason Montgomery and Brecon are unaffected is because very 18-24 year olds live there.

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

Nasty Party anyone

I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.

Scottish Labour say hello.

Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.

The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...

To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.

Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?

If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy.
(Snip)

I really don't see that.

Extreme Leavers believe that democracy stopped on 23 June 2016.

Sean is right in the 90’s

fitalass said:

Sean_F said:

bunnco said:

So I have been out canvassing in the local elections today in my part of Norfolk - for my own seat. We have boundary changes in our Council so there is less incumbent advantage and I focused on the 'new' part of my ward where I am unknown. I should say that I'm standing for the Conservatives. It's my 5th election campaign so I know a little bit about canvassing. And I know my way around the system.

I was astonished by the response on the doorstep. Contrary to what I was expecting, the response on the doorstep for the LOCAL elections was much warmer, even enthusiastic for the Tories - with no softness at all. There is total disdain for what's going on in London, but as most agreed, there's a world of difference between Wacton [a village in our parts] and Westminster.

Collecting the bins has nothing to do with Brexit. We'll be cleaning the streets, finding homes for the homeless, investing in sports and leisure and ensuring public safety whether Brexit happens or not. This message resonated strongly.

Also notable was, of the five LibDems on my canvass sheet, none said they would be voting LibDem this time. That really surprised me. And the traditional Labour vote in this village location was extraordinarily soft - with half of them saying that they would either stay at home or even consider the Conservatives. Another surprising outcome based on real-life contact with real voters.

Yes, there is a meme that the Conservative Party is finished. Based on my evidence this afternoon, that's bunkum. The electorate is clearly more discriminating and sophisticated than the media will have. And more resiliant to the Conservative message in an environment where the LibDems and Labour have alienated their natural base.

Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.

I've always thought that in this big round of local elections in the Shires, the number of candidates being fielded is an indication of how parties will do. Labour and the Lib Dems are not contesting seats which they were contesting in the nineties.

Sean, why do you think that is the case now?

Sean is right that in the 90’s the lib dems were able to field more candidates, we even “won” sandhurst and if we could have put up full slates would have wiped them out. The lib dems standing this time will do well but not on the scale of 95

AlastairMeeks said:

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

Nasty Party anyone

I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.

Scottish Labour say hello.

Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.

The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...

To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.

Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?

If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy.
(Snip)

I really don't see that.

Extreme Leavers believe that democracy stopped on 23 June 2016.

Nope. The belief is that democracy is based on a basic principle of asking a question and enacting the result. I said on numerous occasions before the referendum that as long as Remain won I would give no further support to another referendum. It is called principle and you singularly lack it as a quality.

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

Nasty Party anyone

I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.

Scottish Labour say hello.

Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.

The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...

To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.

Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?

If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy.
(Snip)

I really don't see that.

Extreme Leavers believe that democracy stopped on 23 June 2016.

Nope. The belief is that democracy is based on a basic principle of asking a question and enacting the result. I said on numerous occasions before the referendum that as long as Remain won I would give no further support to another referendum. It is called principle and you singularly lack it as a quality.

Democracy allows for further consideration of the same question. Lord knows enough time has been spent on this one and Leavers have proven themselves singularly clueless about what they actually want, as opposed to what they don’t want.

“No that was more lies from the ERG . YouGov found only 26% would prefer no deal as an outcome . Indeed YouGov were so disgusted with the misreporting of their poll they put out a press release”

To be fair respondents were asked if the EU refused to grant an extension would you prefer no deal or remain/revoke. This is a possible if unlikely choice we may have to make this week.

No deal got 44 to 42 for remain/revoke. And outside London and Scotland no deal was clearly ahead. Tory voters backed no deal by at least 2 to 1.

Politicians spinning polls is hardly unique to the ERG. So let's not over dramatise!

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

Nasty Party anyone

I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.

Scottish Labour say hello.

Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.

The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...

To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.

Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?

If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy.
(Snip)

I really don't see that.

Extreme Leavers believe that democracy stopped on 23 June 2016.

Nope. The belief is that democracy is based on a basic principle of asking a question and enacting the result. I said on numerous occasions before the referendum that as long as Remain won I would give no further support to another referendum. It is called principle and you singularly lack it as a quality.

Democracy allows for further consideration of the same question. Lord knows enough time has been spent on this one and Leavers have proven themselves singularly clueless about what they actually want, as opposed to what they don’t want.

Democracy allows for further consideration once the first vote has been enacted. Otherwise it is simply Oligarchy.

Just remember Farage said if he lost 52/48 then it would be unfinished business and he’d be back for another vote

Richard_Tyndall said:

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

Nasty Party anyone

I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.

Scottish Labour say hello.

Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.

The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...

To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.

Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?

If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy.
(Snip)

I really don't see that.

I know you don't but then to be fair you were never going to be convinced by it anyway. But just for a moment imagine what your view would be of Parliament if the vote had gone the other way and they had then decided we would leave anyway. I am pretty sure there would have been plenty of people shouting about how Parliamentary democracy had failed - and I would have been right there with them. What would be the point in taking back control from the EU only through the autocratic role of a Parliament that acted against the wishes of the people?

nico67 said:

I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.

Richard_Tyndall said:

I know you don't but then to be fair you were never going to be convinced by it anyway. But just for a moment imagine what your view would be of Parliament if the vote had gone the other way and they had then decided we would leave anyway. I am pretty sure there would have been plenty of people shouting about how Parliamentary democracy had failed - and I would have been right there with them. What would be the point in taking back control from the EU only through the autocratic role of a Parliament that acted against the wishes of the people?

And taking the same poor attitude you have: you are never going to be convinced to the contrary.

Take, as an example, your wish to have a referendum on Lisbon when Cameron came to power, and after Brown had signed it (I believe that was your view). You wanted a referendum on that even if the result was unimplementable. Wither democracy in that case?

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Democracy allows for further consideration of the same question. Lord knows enough time has been spent on this one and Leavers have proven themselves singularly clueless about what they actually want, as opposed to what they don’t want.

Democracy allows for further consideration once the first vote has been enacted. Otherwise it is simply Oligarchy.

Different people define enacting the first vote in different ways. If May's deal went through and we went into transition, would you regard the first vote as having been enacted? Millions wouldn't, which is why you have no right to set yourself up as the arbiter of this question. It is always legitimate to oppose a policy by democratic means, no matter how many people have voted for it.

Sean_F said:

nico67 said:

I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.

+1

Richard_Tyndall said:

nichomar said:

Just remember Farage said if he lost 52/48 then it would be unfinished business and he’d be back for another vote

Farage will say anything to stay in the limelight.

Richard_Tyndall said:

nichomar said:

Just remember Farage said if he lost 52/48 then it would be unfinished business and he’d be back for another vote

Farage will say anything to stay in the limelight.

Richard_Tyndall said:

nichomar said:

Just remember Farage said if he lost 52/48 then it would be unfinished business and he’d be back for another vote

Farage will say anything to stay in the limelight.

Sean_F said:

nico67 said:

I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.

Richard_Tyndall said:

nichomar said:

Just remember Farage said if he lost 52/48 then it would be unfinished business and he’d be back for another vote

Farage will say anything to stay in the limelight.

Sadly true

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

Nasty Party anyone

I’m not going to think about it because it’s not going to happen.

On topic, the Tory Party isn’t going anywhere. Even if we suffer another 1997, we will still be able to choke anyone trying to replace us on the centre-right, thanks to FPTP.

Scottish Labour say hello.

Who would be the rival that could inflict such a result on the Conservatives?

I don't see UKIP or the Brexit Party being the SNP equivalent.

The fact that there is both the Brexit Party and UKIP rather limits their chances...

You also need to be careful what you wish for: a fracturing on the right might end up letting a surprising number of LibDems in.

An increased proportion of people voting for Brexity parties may lead to more pro-EUites in parliament...

To be honest Robert if we don't leave this time it no longer matters what the makeup of Parliament is.

Does parliament serve no purpose other than to facilitate your nationalist dreams?

If we do not leave then Parliament has lost its democratic legitimacy.
(Snip)

I really don't see that.

Extreme Leavers believe that democracy stopped on 23 June 2016.

Nope. The belief is that democracy is based on a basic principle of asking a question and enacting the result. I said on numerous occasions before the referendum that as long as Remain won I would give no further support to another referendum. It is called principle and you singularly lack it as a quality.

Democracy allows for further consideration of the same question. Lord knows enough time has been spent on this one and Leavers have proven themselves singularly clueless about what they actually want, as opposed to what they don’t want.

Democracy allows for further consideration once the first vote has been enacted. Otherwise it is simply Oligarchy.

An operable deal was offered. Leavers turned it down. At that point, Remainers can reasonably regard their duty to implement Brexit as discharged.

Sean_F said:

fitalass said:

Sean_F said:

bunnco said:

So I have been out canvassing in the local elections today in my part of Norfolk - for my own seat. We have boundary changes in our Council so there is less incumbent advantage and I focused on the 'new' part of my ward where I am unknown. I should say that I'm standing for the Conservatives. It's my 5th election campaign so I know a little bit about canvassing. And I know my way around the system.

I was astonished by the response on the doorstep. Contrary to what I was expecting, the response on the doorstep for the LOCAL elections was much warmer, even enthusiastic for the Tories - with no softness at all. There is total disdain for what's going on in London, but as most agreed, there's a world of difference between Wacton [a village in our parts] and Westminster.

Collecting the bins has nothing to do with Brexit. We'll be cleaning the streets, finding homes for the homeless, investing in sports and leisure and ensuring public safety whether Brexit happens or not. This message resonated strongly.

Also notable was, of the five LibDems on my canvass sheet, none said they would be voting LibDem this time. That really surprised me. And the traditional Labour vote in this village location was extraordinarily soft - with half of them saying that they would either stay at home or even consider the Conservatives. Another surprising outcome based on real-life contact with real voters.

Yes, there is a meme that the Conservative Party is finished. Based on my evidence this afternoon, that's bunkum. The electorate is clearly more discriminating and sophisticated than the media will have. And more resiliant to the Conservative message in an environment where the LibDems and Labour have alienated their natural base.

Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.

I've always thought that in this big round of local elections in the Shires, the number of candidates being fielded is an indication of how parties will do. Labour and the Lib Dems are not contesting seats which they were contesting in the nineties.

Sean, why do you think that is the case now?

Between 1999-2010 the Conservatives made big gains against the Lib Dems in local elections. Ordinarily, many seats would have switched back after 2010 but they did not due to the Lib Dems being in government. Indeed, the Lib Dems fell back further, leaving them without an organisation in a lot of places.

It's harder to understand why Labour is not fielding more candidates, given the influx of new members.

Many thanks Sean, I was particularly surprised at this being the case for Labour because of the rise in its membership.

nico67 said:

I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

Another remainer born yesterday, it was Labour that was originally most opposed to the economic liberalism of the EEC. in fact;

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3408128/tony-blairs-old-election-leaflet-reveals-the-brexit-wrecker-used-to-want-to-leave-the-eu/

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

nico67 said:

I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.

The most thoughtful and coherent contribution to the referendum campaign came from one Theresa May.

Which very few saw . I saw her speech but she never really did any big events . I think she could have helped the Remain cause especially with older people .

brokenwheel said:

nico67 said:

I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

Another remainer born yesterday, it was Labour that was originally most opposed to the economic liberalism of the EEC. in fact;

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3408128/tony-blairs-old-election-leaflet-reveals-the-brexit-wrecker-used-to-want-to-leave-the-eu/

Lmao ! I wish I was that young .

tottenhamWC said:

nico67 said:

Re Richard Ts post .

You have a point . I often ask my Remainer friends to reverse the situation . However what’s now causing the big problem is this new no deal mantra which is driving Remainers into a more polarized position . The ERG are to blame . I’m a Remainer who wants an orderly exit and a deal but am disgusted by this no deal being peddled by some which some of the public are now following. We hear so much about honouring the ref but the campaign promised a deal and not a sudden rupture with the EU. Leave MPs seem happy now to avoid the part of the campaign that doesn’t suit them.

I think that's spot-on.

Thanks . I’ve said on many occasions the only way to have a chance of healing the divisions is with an orderly exit and deal. The ERG no dealers clearly don’t care what happens as long as they get their version of Brexit .

They are pouring fuel onto a fire. I find their actions reprehensible .

rottenborough said:

Ohhh!

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1114612452623302656

Because the establishment is utterly incapable of taking no for an answer?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

Nasty Party anyone

The morons in Birmingham are Labour fans, are they not?

The morons in Birmingham are usually Birmingham fans.

nico67 said:

brokenwheel said:

nico67 said:

I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

Another remainer born yesterday, it was Labour that was originally most opposed to the economic liberalism of the EEC. in fact;

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3408128/tony-blairs-old-election-leaflet-reveals-the-brexit-wrecker-used-to-want-to-leave-the-eu/

Lmao ! I wish I was that young .

Well then how on earth do you reckon leaving the EU is a right-wing coup to deliver capitalism on steroids when the most free market Tories on this board are precisly the most sceptical of leaving?

You can’t keep up the cognitive dissonance forever, surely?

AlastairMeeks said:

ydoethur said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An operable deal was offered. Leavers turned it down. At that point, Remainers can reasonably regard their duty to implement Brexit as discharged.

The key point is whether Brexit is deliverable without that deal, or at least, deliverable without an unacceptable level of disruption.

However, I would have more sympathy with that argument if Remainers had abstained on or voted for the Deal, rather than blocking it.

The key point is that Leavers are clueless about what they actually want. They can’t expect everyone else to indulge them while they cast around for ideas.

Leavers want to leave. I think in time they would have accepted this, and we could have moved on. Of course the ERG and DUP would continue to behave like mad fundies, but they are, so that's no change.

But Remainers trying to stop us leaving - that's more difficult to explain. It isn't a good look. That's not to say we should leave at any price, but if we keep trying to avoid practicable ways of leaving how on Earth are we going to sort this mess out?

initforthemoney said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

Somebody had a private conversation and expressed a view that is held by 30-40% of the population? Shocking! Children raised outside of wedlock generally fare worse than those raised within it, partially because their parents are much more likely to separate. The fact that this might make people uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s untrue.

The biggest threat to the freedoms of gay people in this country comes from the attitudes demonstrated outside that Birmingham school. The ERG is totally irrelevant.

The ERG have the ability to legislate, the morons in Birmingham do not.

Do you honestly think reducing LGBTQI rights will be a vote winner for the Tory party?

Nasty Party anyone

The morons in Birmingham are Labour fans, are they not?

The morons in Birmingham are usually Birmingham fans.

Some of the richer ones may have A Villa.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Sean_F said:

nico67 said:

I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.

Right wing people praising Labour Leave hardly refutes the original point.

Labour Leave are right-wing?

Kate Hoey?

nichomar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Sean_F said:

nico67 said:

I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.

Right wing people praising Labour Leave hardly refutes the original point.

Labour Leave are right-wing?

Kate Hoey?

Still a Labour MP last time I checked!

Go

Sunil_Prasannan said:

nichomar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Sean_F said:

nico67 said:

I have no time for Labour Leave MPs . Indeed they annoy me a lot more than Tory Leavers .

Brexit is a right wing coup , pushed by people who want to gut the welfare state and deliver capitalism on steroids .

The Lexit argument is a pile of nonsense .

I thought the Labour Leave campaign was the most thoughtful and coherent of all, during the campaign.

Right wing people praising Labour Leave hardly refutes the original point.

Labour Leave are right-wing?

Kate Hoey?

Still a Labour MP last time I checked!

God knows how

Richard_Tyndall said:

No my position is clear and always has been. If you ask a question of the electorate and then do not act according to their direction then it is not democracy.

So not bringing in an Australian-style points system for EU citizens would be undemocratic?

https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/745685905999007744