politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cooper-Letwin has probably killed Brexit
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It really does feel like uncharted territory. Maybe it will just be disillusionment, and knock down voting intentions a little bit. I know MPs offices (and associations) are getting pretty ugly telephone calls and emails, but it could be much more.Richard_Tyndall said:
d then democracy is dead in this country and there will be plenty of people out there who will try and make sure it is properly buried.Benpointer said:
Dementia tax, Hunting Act repeal? There are always things in manfestos which governments don't implement. As for Labour, they aren't in power, so not much of their manifesto has been implemented.Black_Rook said:
FWIW, here is what the manifestos on which the Conservatives and Labour stood for the last General Election had to say about their responses to the 2016 referendum:Ishmael_Z said:
The advantage of living under the rule of law, as we do, is that that makes no difference. Try Africa if you want the law to be rewritten on the fly by Big Men giving interviews on the telly.isam said:It's not even worth arguing about. Every major politician (most of whom were campaigning for Remain) said that the 2016 decision was final and there would be no going back, and so it is.
* Conservative: "We are leaving the European Union. We want to ensure our departure is smooth and orderly and to agree a deep and special partnership with the 27 remaining member states."
* Labour: "We will build a close co-operative future relationship with the EU, not as members but as partners."
t renders the whole exercise of voting even more pointless. The basic message that is now being given to voters who query why it is that politicians can't be arsed to do what they said they would is "We are representatives not delegates, so fuck off."
The British political system basically consists of electoral districts in which there is no point in voting because the same party enjoys such vast advantages in terms of support that it always wins, and electoral districts in which there is no point in voting either because all of the candidates who could win lie about virtually everything, so informed choices are therefore impossible. This is no longer a functioning democracy.
Canvassing is grim across the board, and it isnt either just a conservative thing, its long term voters telling us that they wont be voting for anyone. It might just be an anger that subsides. But some people feel like the legitimate and fair result is been undermined by Parliament.0 -
Many of us agree with that. It still doesn't make the concept of leaving wrong.AlastairMeeks said:The words “we told you so” are being screamed at the screen:
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1114516511702564864?s=210 -
Leavers could have left by now, they had a deal for leaving, they had a majority, they just couldn't agree amongst themselves.Richard_Tyndall said:
They should be ashamed of themselves now but of course they have no shame - or principles.isam said:
Anyone calling for a second referendum will be ashamed of themselves in years to come.Benpointer said:
But the ERG won't support it.isam said:
Its nothing to do with them. The PM made the deal and that should be that.Benpointer said:
You're only in this situation because Leave campaign leaders cannot decide between themselves what kind of Brexit they want.isam said:
The compromise Leave voters are expected to make seems to be on the resultRichard_Tyndall said:
I do indeed. And according to the polls at the time of the referendum so did almost half of those voting leave. Of course you Euro-fanatics just pick those who wanted to end FoM and claim they represent the whole of the Leave campaign. But as many of us on both sides have made clear from the start, a 52:48 result does not mean we should just abide by the wishes of the 26% or so of the total vote who wanted a hard Brexit. It is called compromise - something you seem to be utterly incapable of understanding or doing.williamglenn said:
You favour a form of Brexit that keeps free movement of people, do you not?Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope, still gibberish from you. How does that tie in with your comment of denying the winners want they want? I think your mind is finally going.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/740589926450860032Richard_Tyndall said:
You are talking even more gibberish than usual William. And I thought that was almost impossible.williamglenn said:
"Why did the losers not collaborate with us to deny the winners what we promised them?"Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope I just think that is an excuse from sore losers who want to find any way they can to overturn the referendum result. Why try and build bridges with someone like Meeks when he will spit in your face. I am talking about reaching out to reasonable people not lunatic fanatics like those trying to overturn the result.
It's contemptible and always was.
https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/741363396550000640
Never mind - you'll get your chance in Ref2
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... wrong!Floater said:
AbsolutelyRichard_Tyndall said:
They should be ashamed of themselves now but of course they have no shame - or principles.isam said:
Anyone calling for a second referendum will be ashamed of themselves in years to come.Benpointer said:
But the ERG won't support it.isam said:
Its nothing to do with them. The PM made the deal and that should be that.Benpointer said:
You're only in this situation because Leave campaign leaders cannot decide between themselves what kind of Brexit they want.isam said:
The compromise Leave voters are expected to make seems to be on the resultRichard_Tyndall said:
I do indeed. And according to the polls at the time of the referendum so did almost half of those voting leave. Of course you Euro-fanatics just pick those who wanted to end FoM and claim they represent the whole of the Leave campaign. But as many of us on both sides have made clear from the start, a 52:48 result does not mean we should just abide by the wishes of the 26% or so of the total vote who wanted a hard Brexit. It is called compromise - something you seem to be utterly incapable of understanding or doing.williamglenn said:
You favour a form of Brexit that keeps free movement of people, do you not?Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope, still gibberish from you. How does that tie in with your comment of denying the winners want they want? I think your mind is finally going.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/740589926450860032Richard_Tyndall said:
You are talking even more gibberish than usual William. And I thought that was almost impossible.williamglenn said:
"Why did the losers not collaborate with us to deny the winners what we promised them?"Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope I just think that is an excuse from sore losers who want to find any way they can to overturn the referendum result. Why try and build bridges with someone like Meeks when he will spit in your face. I am talking about reaching out to reasonable people not lunatic fanatics like those trying to overturn the result.
It's contemptible and always was.
https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/741363396550000640
Never mind - you'll get your chance in Ref20 -
☺☺☺0
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Good call!kinabalu said:Right, so Tiger Roll will not be looking too short about 15 mins from now when he trots up by 10 lengths. Not bothering with any others. Or the place. All in.
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Well done!kinabalu said:Right, so Tiger Roll will not be looking too short about 15 mins from now when he trots up by 10 lengths. Not bothering with any others. Or the place. All in.
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We voted as onewilliamglenn said:
How do you propose we respect the choice of Northern Ireland and Scotland?isam said:
Me because I want to respect the choice made by the demosIshmael_Z said:So could you enunciate the principle which rules out a second vote? I have pointed out that the Athenians had no problem with it. Democracy means giving people choices. I want them to have a choice, you don't. Which of us is democratic?
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Was that Magic of Light second at 125/1 ?0
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Drinks are you then!kinabalu said:☺☺☺
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That is self-evidently untrue. If there were any sense of a collective decision the ongoing sense of division would not exist never mind have intensified.isam said:
We voted as onewilliamglenn said:
How do you propose we respect the choice of Northern Ireland and Scotland?isam said:
Me because I want to respect the choice made by the demosIshmael_Z said:So could you enunciate the principle which rules out a second vote? I have pointed out that the Athenians had no problem with it. Democracy means giving people choices. I want them to have a choice, you don't. Which of us is democratic?
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There should be money returned for any that fall at the firstSandyRentool said:So much for Yorkshire's finest.
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It said 66/1 on ITV, but if you got 125/1, well done!another_richard said:Was that Magic of Light second at 125/1 ?
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Some people?notme2 said:But some people feel like the legitimate and fair result is been undermined by Parliament.
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Good job I didn't go SPtlg86 said:
It said 66/1 on ITV, but if you got 125/1, well done!another_richard said:Was that Magic of Light second at 125/1 ?
And doesn't that demolish the "half the horses in the National don't have a choice" talk.0 -
If England had voted Leave but the balance had been tipped by Scotland Ireland and Wales voting Remain I would have worn it, and anyone who complained would have been dubbed a "Little Englander"AlastairMeeks said:
That is self-evidently untrue. If there were any sense of a collective decision the ongoing sense of division would not exist never mind have intensified.isam said:
We voted as onewilliamglenn said:
How do you propose we respect the choice of Northern Ireland and Scotland?isam said:
Me because I want to respect the choice made by the demosIshmael_Z said:So could you enunciate the principle which rules out a second vote? I have pointed out that the Athenians had no problem with it. Democracy means giving people choices. I want them to have a choice, you don't. Which of us is democratic?
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That is their call. They are currently in a single nation called the United Kingdom. When last asked about it, they said "Yup, so we are....."williamglenn said:
How do you propose we respect the choice of Northern Ireland and Scotland?isam said:
Me because I want to respect the choice made by the demosIshmael_Z said:So could you enunciate the principle which rules out a second vote? I have pointed out that the Athenians had no problem with it. Democracy means giving people choices. I want them to have a choice, you don't. Which of us is democratic?
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Well well, two places - that's gone rather better than I thought. A modest profit in the offing.Black_Rook said:
I've backed Rathvinden, Walk In The Mill and Singlefarmpayment. So, that's three more that won't place, for those still yet to take a punt and looking for indications of which nags to avoid like the plague.TheScreamingEagles said:My Grand National bet is on Blow By Blow boosted to 100/1.
Went e/w.
Not expecting to win.
Of course, I should've kept the faith from twelve months ago and backed Tiger Roll again. But, you know, gift horses and all that.0 -
Unlike the ERG, it was the right call.SandyRentool said:
Shit or bust. Just like the ERG.kinabalu said:Right, so Tiger Roll will not be looking too short about 15 mins from now when he trots up by 10 lengths. Not bothering with any others. Or the place. All in.
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Sorry Tiger Roll backers - Oliver Letwin isn’t paying out - horses may have changed their mind since the result.0
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"How I know the Conservative party is doomed
James Delingpole"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/how-i-know-the-conservative-party-is-doomed/0 -
Tiger Roll for SPOTY .... we've had four legged winners before - Torvill & Dean ....
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Indeed. That said, I think the handicapper didn't do a great job. When Red Rum won the 1974 National, he carried 12 stone and was top weight. Tiger Roll should have been carrying more than 11 stone 5.another_richard said:
Good job I didn't go SPtlg86 said:
It said 66/1 on ITV, but if you got 125/1, well done!another_richard said:Was that Magic of Light second at 125/1 ?
And doesn't that demolish the "half the horses in the National don't have a choice" talk.0 -
For the top one -- https://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check/2016/feb/08/jungle-will-there-be-kent-migrant-camps-if-britain-leaves-euRecidivist said:
/ refugee-camps-at-Dover / - never heard that oneanother_richard said:
Well that pretty much rules out the entirety of the furriners / harlipool / refugee-camps-at-Dover / the-crops-are-rotting-in-the-fields / there-are-no-strawberries-at-Wimbledon / the-City-is-moving-to-Frankfurt / no-its-happening-behind-the-scenes / I-know-people-who-have-been-redundant / there-will-be-an-immediate-recession / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2017 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2018 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2019 / fishfingers-will-be-5p-more-expensive claims which have dominated the Remainer side of the debate since the Referendum.Recidivist said:
On the contrary. Our relationship with Europe is a big and important issue and should be debated at the highest level on both sides. I have nothing but respect for a well made case even if I don't personally agree with it. Indeed it obliges me to think the issue over again. E.g.,another_richard said:
My lies good and their lies bad.Recidivist said:Leavers just continue to lie and lie. This is way more damaging to democracy than rerunning a vote.
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114500236150550529
And that's why compromise becomes ever more difficult.
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1114466874572640256
the-crops-are-rotting-in-the-fields / - this has happened https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-44884882
there-are-no-strawberries-at-Wimbledon / - I think that was leavers extrapolating from the previous story
the-City-is-moving-to-Frankfurt / on its way
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/29/london-to-lose-800bn-to-frankfurt-as-banks-prepare-for-brexit
no-its-happening-behind-the-scenes / I am making preparations to move operations to the continent, but nobody else in the company knows about it because I don't want to alarm them until I really have to do it.
I-know-people-who-have-been-redundant / - try for example Honda in Swindon
there-will-be-an-immediate-recession / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2017 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2018 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2019 / - what do you think is going to happen when businesses stop stockpiling and start destocking
fishfingers-will-be-5p-more-expensive claims - not heard that one. It is pretty likely food costs will indeed go up in event of no deal.0 -
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Backed the 6th each way, only 5 places though
Backed UKIP - 13%, one seat
Backed Leave - they win, we don't leave
Think I am jinxed0 -
Hang on a cotton picking minute !! .... Tiger Roll had Nicholas Soames on board too and even a slimmed down version of the Honourable Gentleman is plenty of overweight to carry !!tlg86 said:
Indeed. That said, I think the handicapper didn't do a great job. When Red Rum won the 1974 National, he carried 12 stone and was top weight. Tiger Roll should have been carrying more than 11 stone 5.another_richard said:
Good job I didn't go SPtlg86 said:
It said 66/1 on ITV, but if you got 125/1, well done!another_richard said:Was that Magic of Light second at 125/1 ?
And doesn't that demolish the "half the horses in the National don't have a choice" talk.0 -
Do I understand that there's great excitement because a horse that was expected to win a race did so?0
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One of the strange things about betting for me is when a unusually short fav in a big field wins.. Tiger Woods circa 2000 was the same phenomena. Seems like they should win despite being fairly big odds againstRichard_Nabavi said:Do I understand that there's great excitement because a horse that was expected to win a race did so?
4/1f wins the National it seems obvious
4/1 Labour win a seat where the Conservatives were 1/3f it's a big shock, but both had 20% chance of success0 -
Here's Vince Cable claiming that there are no strawberries at Wimbledon:Recidivist said:
/ refugee-camps-at-Dover / - never heard that oneanother_richard said:
Well that pretty much rules out the entirety of the furriners / harlipool / refugee-camps-at-Dover / the-crops-are-rotting-in-the-fields / there-are-no-strawberries-at-Wimbledon / the-City-is-moving-to-Frankfurt / no-its-happening-behind-the-scenes / I-know-people-who-have-been-redundant / there-will-be-an-immediate-recession / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2017 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2018 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2019 / fishfingers-will-be-5p-more-expensive claims which have dominated the Remainer side of the debate since the Referendum.Recidivist said:
On the contrary. Our relationship with Europe is a big and important issue and should be debated at the highest level on both sides. I have nothing but respect for a well made case even if I don't personally agree with it. Indeed it obliges me to think the issue over again. E.g.,another_richard said:
My lies good and their lies bad.Recidivist said:Leavers just continue to lie and lie. This is way more damaging to democracy than rerunning a vote.
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114500236150550529
And that's why compromise becomes ever more difficult.
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1114466874572640256
the-crops-are-rotting-in-the-fields / - this has happened https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-44884882
there-are-no-strawberries-at-Wimbledon / - I think that was leavers extrapolating from the previous story
the-City-is-moving-to-Frankfurt / on its way
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/29/london-to-lose-800bn-to-frankfurt-as-banks-prepare-for-brexit
no-its-happening-behind-the-scenes / I am making preparations to move operations to the continent, but nobody else in the company knows about it because I don't want to alarm them until I really have to do it.
I-know-people-who-have-been-redundant / - try for example Honda in Swindon
there-will-be-an-immediate-recession / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2017 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2018 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2019 / - what do you think is going to happen when businesses stop stockpiling and start destocking
fishfingers-will-be-5p-more-expensive claims - not heard that one. It is pretty likely food costs will indeed go up in event of no deal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYGggnF0WAc
That was quite easy to find as I had already posted it earlier in the thread.
And what else have you got - its going to happen, its going to happen, its going to happen, please let it happen and punish the wicked Leavers.0 -
Joe Biden is the next one for your listisam said:
One of the strange things about betting for me is when a unusually short fav in a big field wins.. Tiger Woods circa 2000 was the same phenomena. Seems like they should win despite being fairly big odds againstRichard_Nabavi said:Do I understand that there's great excitement because a horse that was expected to win a race did so?
4/1f wins the National it seems obvious
4/1 Labour win a seat where the Conservatives were 1/3f it's a big shock, but both had 20% chance of success 0 -
Technically a 4/1 favourite wasn't expected to win it was instead the least unlikely to win.Richard_Nabavi said:Do I understand that there's great excitement because a horse that was expected to win a race did so?
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What gives most boasting ability though - a 4/1 favourite which wins or a 125/1 ew which comes secondisam said:
One of the strange things about betting for me is when a unusually short fav in a big field wins.. Tiger Woods circa 2000 was the same phenomena. Seems like they should win despite being fairly big odds againstRichard_Nabavi said:Do I understand that there's great excitement because a horse that was expected to win a race did so?
4/1f wins the National it seems obvious
4/1 Labour win a seat where the Conservatives were 1/3f it's a big shock, but both had 20% chance of success 0 -
So that one dates back quite a few years and was called out at the time by the Guardian. And I don't even remember it. It's not the continual systematic lying the leave side indulge in.RobD said:
For the top one -- https://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check/2016/feb/08/jungle-will-there-be-kent-migrant-camps-if-britain-leaves-euRecidivist said:
/ refugee-camps-at-Dover / - never heard that oneanother_richard said:
Well that pretty much rules out the entirety of the furriners / harlipool / refugee-camps-at-Dover / the-crops-are-rotting-in-the-fields / there-are-no-strawberries-at-Wimbledon / the-City-is-moving-to-Frankfurt / no-its-happening-behind-the-scenes / I-know-people-who-have-been-redundant / there-will-be-an-immediate-recession / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2017 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2018 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2019 / fishfingers-will-be-5p-more-expensive claims which have dominated the Remainer side of the debate since the Referendum.Recidivist said:
On the contrary. Our relationship with Europe is a big and important issue and should be debated at the highest level on both sides. I have nothing but respect for a well made case even if I don't personally agree with it. Indeed it obliges me to think the issue over again. E.g.,another_richard said:
My lies good and their lies bad.Recidivist said:Leavers just continue to lie and lie. This is way more damaging to democracy than rerunning a vote.
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114500236150550529
And that's why compromise becomes ever more difficult.
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1114466874572640256
the-crops-are-rotting-in-the-fields / - this has happened https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-44884882
there-are-no-strawberries-at-Wimbledon / - I think that was leavers extrapolating from the previous story
the-City-is-moving-to-Frankfurt / on its way
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/29/london-to-lose-800bn-to-frankfurt-as-banks-prepare-for-brexit
no-its-happening-behind-the-scenes / I am making preparations to move operations to the continent, but nobody else in the company knows about it because I don't want to alarm them until I really have to do it.
I-know-people-who-have-been-redundant / - try for example Honda in Swindon
there-will-be-an-immediate-recession / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2017 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2018 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2019 / - what do you think is going to happen when businesses stop stockpiling and start destocking
fishfingers-will-be-5p-more-expensive claims - not heard that one. It is pretty likely food costs will indeed go up in event of no deal.0 -
Not bad for me, for one 4 horses e/w and two placed top five.
LCFC win and reach 7th place, so a pretty good day.
Winnings should be enough for a pint of ale.
PP seems to have crashed though.0 -
Is everyone having a happy GPS rollover day?
I hope your cars are still navigating well, and you phones aren't sending you to odd places. 0 -
More importantly the 125-1 Each Way shot gives you more than 3 times the return for the same stake as the 7-2 winner.another_richard said:
What gives most boasting ability though - a 4/1 favourite which wins or a 125/1 ew which comes secondisam said:
One of the strange things about betting for me is when a unusually short fav in a big field wins.. Tiger Woods circa 2000 was the same phenomena. Seems like they should win despite being fairly big odds againstRichard_Nabavi said:Do I understand that there's great excitement because a horse that was expected to win a race did so?
4/1f wins the National it seems obvious
4/1 Labour win a seat where the Conservatives were 1/3f it's a big shock, but both had 20% chance of success
None of mine even finished
- I'll continue to take Bet365 half stake offer till the end of time though. 0 -
It always struck me as daft. If migrants crossed the channel, why on earth would they stop in Dover? unless they fancied the return journey.Recidivist said:
So that one dates back quite a few years and was called out at the time by the Guardian. And I don't even remember it. It's not the continual systematic lying the leave side indulge in.RobD said:
For the top one -- https://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check/2016/feb/08/jungle-will-there-be-kent-migrant-camps-if-britain-leaves-euRecidivist said:
/ refugee-camps-at-Dover / - never heard that oneanother_richard said:
Well that pretty much rules out the .Recidivist said:
On the contrary. Our relationship with Europe is a big and important issue and should be debated at the highest level on both sides. I have nothing but respect for a well made case even if I don't personally agree with it. Indeed it obliges me to think the issue over again. E.g.,another_richard said:
My lies good and their lies bad.Recidivist said:Leavers just continue to lie and lie. This is way more damaging to democracy than rerunning a vote.
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114500236150550529
And that's why compromise becomes ever more difficult.
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1114466874572640256
the-crops-are-rotting-in-the-fields / - this has happened https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-44884882
there-are-no-strawberries-at-Wimbledon / - I think that was leavers extrapolating from the previous story
the-City-is-moving-to-Frankfurt / on its way
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/29/london-to-lose-800bn-to-frankfurt-as-banks-prepare-for-brexit
no-its-happening-behind-the-scenes / I am making preparations to move operations to the continent, but nobody else in the company knows about it because I don't want to alarm them until I really have to do it.
I-know-people-who-have-been-redundant / - try for example Honda in Swindon
there-will-be-an-immediate-recession / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2017 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2018 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2019 / - what do you think is going to happen when businesses stop stockpiling and start destocking
fishfingers-will-be-5p-more-expensive claims - not heard that one. It is pretty likely food costs will indeed go up in event of no deal.
Project Fear was over done, there needed to be a much more positive campaign for Europe, like we see now on the PV marches. I said so at the time if anyone is bothered to look back.0 -
Simply untrue. There was no majority in Parliament for May's deal even if all the Leavers voted for it.logical_song said:
Leavers could have left by now, they had a deal for leaving, they had a majority, they just couldn't agree amongst themselves.0 -
As isam points out, a 4/1 favourite feels different from a 4/1 outsider.another_richard said:
Technically a 4/1 favourite wasn't expected to win it was instead the least unlikely to win.Richard_Nabavi said:Do I understand that there's great excitement because a horse that was expected to win a race did so?
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Mine's got stuck in an endless loop. No matter where I tell it to go, it always ends up back where I started after aimlessly taking me down a lot of unnecessary side streets.JosiasJessop said:Is everyone having a happy GPS rollover day?
I hope your cars are still navigating well, and you phones aren't sending you to odd places.
I shouldn't have asked for a Theresa May voice.0 -
She's made the way clear.ydoethur said:
Mine's got stuck in an endless loop. No matter where I tell it to go, it always ends up back where I started after aimlessly taking me down a lot of unnecessary side streets.JosiasJessop said:Is everyone having a happy GPS rollover day?
I hope your cars are still navigating well, and you phones aren't sending you to odd places.
I shouldn't have asked for a Theresa May voice.0 -
Somewhat off topic, if anyone has accounts at both bookmakers - I don't - it's possible to bet on
Labour most seats at odds of 2.4
Tories most seats at 2.0
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats
Unless there's a total realignment of the main parties in a very short time, one of these results seems likely to me.0 -
So are we all agreed that the future is going to be **** but we can at least enjoy rubbing our political enemies' noses in the dirt?0
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Article 50 as triggered by a Remainer PM with the opposition claiming it should have been done long before and the EU refusing any negotiations until it was triggered. And it was hardly precipitous given it was fully 9 months after we voted to leave.DougSeal said:Not really. A Brexit that eased us out of the EU over (for example) 6 years or so, with two years to agree a consensus desired outcome within the U.K, an Art 50 trigger with a subsequent two years to seek to negotiate that desired outcome, and then a two year transition, would have been far more likely to be successfully implemented and difficult to challenge by Remainers - many of whom may have been won round. That may be hopelessly naive but it stood a far better chance of working. I certainly would have been open to persuasion as I was at least mildly Eurosceptic in my younger days.
Instead it was sold as a revolutionary change that had to be implemented quickly and at all costs. Article 50 was triggered precipitously with huge cheering and clapping from many of those who now decry it as being done too soon. Brexit was, and is, sold as a political revolution against the “elites” but, as with nearly all revolutions, ultimately there will be a reaction. That reaction is what we are seeing now.
But you are right that Brexit has been handled very badly. For that the blame lies with both the PM and Parliament. Neither of which have ever been committed to the project at all.
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Yeah, I know, I can see the M6 Toll lovely and clear just before it diverts me down the A34 to bloody Landywood. And the voice says one, and the directions say another.Pulpstar said:
She's made the way clear.ydoethur said:
Mine's got stuck in an endless loop. No matter where I tell it to go, it always ends up back where I started after aimlessly taking me down a lot of unnecessary side streets.JosiasJessop said:Is everyone having a happy GPS rollover day?
I hope your cars are still navigating well, and you phones aren't sending you to odd places.
I shouldn't have asked for a Theresa May voice.0 -
The Irish may be crapping themselves but at least they're dong something about it rather than rolling about the beshitted bed and being laughed at.
https://twitter.com/tradasro/status/11144304318716067840 -
Which other project has the PM spent her political capital on instead of Brexit?Richard_Tyndall said:
But you are right that Brexit has been handled very badly. For that the blame lies with both the PM and Parliament. Neither of which have ever been committed to the project at all.0 -
On the 29th of March had all the Tory Leavers and the DUP voted for Mrs May's deal it would have passed and we would be leaving on Friday.Richard_Tyndall said:
Simply untrue. There was no majority in Parliament for May's deal even if all the Leavers voted for it.logical_song said:
Leavers could have left by now, they had a deal for leaving, they had a majority, they just couldn't agree amongst themselves.0 -
... and back "any other" at 21!!!rural_voter said:Somewhat off topic, if anyone has accounts at both bookmakers - I don't - it's possible to bet on
Labour most seats at odds of 2.4
Tories most seats at 2.0
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats
Unless there's a total realignment of the main parties in a very short time, one of these results seems likely to me.0 -
And it hasn't even officially happened yet. It will get far worse. The very best Remainers can hope for is a massive increase in support for extremist parties and the moderate voters simply refusing to support anyone. I do think there is scope for it to be much worse than that.notme2 said:It really does feel like uncharted territory. Maybe it will just be disillusionment, and knock down voting intentions a little bit. I know MPs offices (and associations) are getting pretty ugly telephone calls and emails, but it could be much more.
Canvassing is grim across the board, and it isnt either just a conservative thing, its long term voters telling us that they wont be voting for anyone. It might just be an anger that subsides. But some people feel like the legitimate and fair result is been undermined by Parliament.0 -
Give them the choice to leave the UK.williamglenn said:
How do you propose we respect the choice of Northern Ireland and Scotland?isam said:
Me because I want to respect the choice made by the demosIshmael_Z said:So could you enunciate the principle which rules out a second vote? I have pointed out that the Athenians had no problem with it. Democracy means giving people choices. I want them to have a choice, you don't. Which of us is democratic?
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That's more of a bet on an early election than anything else. If parliament lasts till 2022 you've basically got a 2.7% PA bond.rural_voter said:Somewhat off topic, if anyone has accounts at both bookmakers - I don't - it's possible to bet on
Labour most seats at odds of 2.4
Tories most seats at 2.0
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats
Unless there's a total realignment of the main parties in a very short time, one of these results seems likely to me.0 -
Effectively laying something that was considered 1/8 favourite gave me a warm feeling.another_richard said:
What gives most boasting ability though - a 4/1 favourite which wins or a 125/1 ew which comes secondisam said:
One of the strange things about betting for me is when a unusually short fav in a big field wins.. Tiger Woods circa 2000 was the same phenomena. Seems like they should win despite being fairly big odds againstRichard_Nabavi said:Do I understand that there's great excitement because a horse that was expected to win a race did so?
4/1f wins the National it seems obvious
4/1 Labour win a seat where the Conservatives were 1/3f it's a big shock, but both had 20% chance of success0 -
0
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Lol my regular saver pays better than that lot combined.isam said:
... and back "any other" at 21!!!rural_voter said:Somewhat off topic, if anyone has accounts at both bookmakers - I don't - it's possible to bet on
Labour most seats at odds of 2.4
Tories most seats at 2.0
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats
Unless there's a total realignment of the main parties in a very short time, one of these results seems likely to me.0 -
Nope. That is only half of it. Democracy means giving people choices and then enacting those choices. Simply asking them what they want and then refusing to do it is certainly not democracy.Ishmael_Z said:
So could you enunciate the principle which rules out a second vote? I have pointed out that the Athenians had no problem with it. Democracy means giving people choices. I want them to have a choice, you don't. Which of us is democratic?0 -
Project Fear ...Richard_Tyndall said:
And it hasn't even officially happened yet. It will get far worse. The very best Remainers can hope for is a massive increase in support for extremist parties and the moderate voters simply refusing to support anyone. I do think there is scope for it to be much worse than that.notme2 said:It really does feel like uncharted territory. Maybe it will just be disillusionment, and knock down voting intentions a little bit. I know MPs offices (and associations) are getting pretty ugly telephone calls and emails, but it could be much more.
Canvassing is grim across the board, and it isnt either just a conservative thing, its long term voters telling us that they wont be voting for anyone. It might just be an anger that subsides. But some people feel like the legitimate and fair result is been undermined by Parliament.0 -
My response was you “don’t” need someone to guard the door. You go into the ladies and you use the facilities to change the nappy. I did it plenty of times.JosiasJessop said:
As I said in my post:Charles said:
Why wouldn’t you just go it to use it? You do t need someone to guard the door.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
"Cardiff dad wants unisex baby change facility law"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-47784588
I can so understand this. When my little 'un was really little, I've had to change my son on tarmac outside (*), in his pram, on the boot of my car (*), at places that nominally had baby-changing facilities - in the ladies, but not the mens'. In one place, a staff member stood guard so I could go into the ladies to change him.
The most egregious one was a play centre where the men's lavatories didn't have changing facilities, and I had to change him on the floor outside.
We want more men to look after their children - and that means giving them the facilities to do so.
(*) With mat.
" In one place, a staff member stood guard so I could go into the ladies to change him."
But often that isn't really an alternative when you're on your own with a child. And some women aren't exactly welcoming of a man with a baby or young child at times - but that's a different story ...
Fortunately, more and more places are having unisex toilets with baby changing (often combined disabled toilet), and stay-at-home dads are being more common.0 -
LOL. Running around in a blind panic with no understanding of the issues at hand is not 'commitment'. It is idiocy.williamglenn said:
Which other project has the PM spent her political capital on instead of Brexit?Richard_Tyndall said:
But you are right that Brexit has been handled very badly. For that the blame lies with both the PM and Parliament. Neither of which have ever been committed to the project at all.
0 -
I don't think so. The antics of Tommy Robinsons neon nazis will quickly piss people off.Richard_Tyndall said:
And it hasn't even officially happened yet. It will get far worse. The very best Remainers can hope for is a massive increase in support for extremist parties and the moderate voters simply refusing to support anyone. I do think there is scope for it to be much worse than that.notme2 said:It really does feel like uncharted territory. Maybe it will just be disillusionment, and knock down voting intentions a little bit. I know MPs offices (and associations) are getting pretty ugly telephone calls and emails, but it could be much more.
Canvassing is grim across the board, and it isnt either just a conservative thing, its long term voters telling us that they wont be voting for anyone. It might just be an anger that subsides. But some people feel like the legitimate and fair result is been undermined by Parliament.
You don't defeat those scum by giving in to them.0 -
NEW THREAD
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Good point. Even if we cancel now, which we obviously should, the damage done is enormous.Theuniondivvie said:The Irish may be crapping themselves but at least they're dong something about it rather than rolling about the beshitted bed and being laughed at.
https://twitter.com/tradasro/status/11144304318716067840 -
Your response was actually "You do t need", which I took to mean 'you do need', with a typo.Charles said:
My response was you “don’t” need someone to guard the door. You go into the ladies and you use the facilities to change the nappy. I did it plenty of times.JosiasJessop said:
As I said in my post:Charles said:
Why wouldn’t you just go it to use it? You do t need someone to guard the door.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
"Cardiff dad wants unisex baby change facility law"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-47784588
I can so understand this. When my little 'un was really little, I've had to change my son on tarmac outside (*), in his pram, on the boot of my car (*), at places that nominally had baby-changing facilities - in the ladies, but not the mens'. In one place, a staff member stood guard so I could go into the ladies to change him.
The most egregious one was a play centre where the men's lavatories didn't have changing facilities, and I had to change him on the floor outside.
We want more men to look after their children - and that means giving them the facilities to do so.
(*) With mat.
" In one place, a staff member stood guard so I could go into the ladies to change him."
But often that isn't really an alternative when you're on your own with a child. And some women aren't exactly welcoming of a man with a baby or young child at times - but that's a different story ...
Fortunately, more and more places are having unisex toilets with baby changing (often combined disabled toilet), and stay-at-home dads are being more common.
There is no way I would feel happy to go into a ladies without permission or knowledge of someone else. No way.0 -
The suggestion that a 'political consensus' could have been reached within two years and then maintained afterwards is also bollox.Richard_Tyndall said:
Article 50 as triggered by a Remainer PM with the opposition claiming it should have been done long before and the EU refusing any negotiations until it was triggered. And it was hardly precipitous given it was fully 9 months after we voted to leave.DougSeal said:Not really. A Brexit that eased us out of the EU over (for example) 6 years or so, with two years to agree a consensus desired outcome within the U.K, an Art 50 trigger with a subsequent two years to seek to negotiate that desired outcome, and then a two year transition, would have been far more likely to be successfully implemented and difficult to challenge by Remainers - many of whom may have been won round. That may be hopelessly naive but it stood a far better chance of working. I certainly would have been open to persuasion as I was at least mildly Eurosceptic in my younger days.
Instead it was sold as a revolutionary change that had to be implemented quickly and at all costs. Article 50 was triggered precipitously with huge cheering and clapping from many of those who now decry it as being done too soon. Brexit was, and is, sold as a political revolution against the “elites” but, as with nearly all revolutions, ultimately there will be a reaction. That reaction is what we are seeing now.
But you are right that Brexit has been handled very badly. For that the blame lies with both the PM and Parliament. Neither of which have ever been committed to the project at all.0
