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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cooper-Letwin has probably killed Brexit
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cooper-Letwin has probably killed Brexit
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are not what you would call transactional politicians. May was famously described by Ken Clarke as a “bloody difficult woman” whose time at both the Home Office and No 10 has been marked by single-minded stubbornness. Corbyn, by contrast, was for decades an activist-politician on the fringes of Labour, and has maintained many of the habits and practices afforded the awkward squad MP despite or even because of his new status as Leader of the Opposition: he regards his twin elections as party leader as an endorsement of those policies and methods. Little surprise then that the talks aimed at finding a compromise way forward to break the Brexit deadlock have ended in failure.
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*x = Brexit, soft Brexit, hard Brexit, People's Vote, CU, FoM, May, May's deal, Corbyn, Tory Party, Labour party, Farage, UKIP, the Union, Scottish Indy etc. SLab could be the exception that proves the rule, mind, though they were pretty corpse like in the first place.
"Cardiff dad wants unisex baby change facility law"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-47784588
I can so understand this. When my little 'un was really little, I've had to change my son on tarmac outside (*), in his pram, on the boot of my car (*), at places that nominally had baby-changing facilities - in the ladies, but not the mens'. In one place, a staff member stood guard so I could go into the ladies to change him.
The most egregious one was a play centre where the men's lavatories didn't have changing facilities, and I had to change him on the floor outside.
We want more men to look after their children - and that means giving them the facilities to do so.
(*) With mat.
Every tiny setback afterwards will be blamed on EU membership. It will be an easy 'get out of jail free' card for whatever government is in power. Brexit has suffered a little even before it's happened, so think of the opportunities available if we stay.
Remainers will say "It's the Leavers fault for making us a pariah state" but they'll struggle when the whole EU itself goes into a recession, as it's bound to do sometime. Every outrage committed by any European nationality will receive a knowing frown. It may not be logical, but politics isn't logical.
A real hostage to fortune.
If May accepts the extension proposed in response to her request by the EU, Cooper/Letwin falls, I think, as it's written as a bill for a one-off circumstance that will already have transpired? For sure, it propelled May into action quickly, in the space given to her by the Tory Lords' filibuster, but she was going to have to ask for an extension anyway, given that government has clearly come out against a no deal exit. And this latter appears to have followed briefings on its practical and political consequences - particularly of direct rule in NI - and these briefings would have been received regardless of the views of backbench MPs.
I don't sense the Tories have yet reconciled themselves to the EU elections - Zadahi was on the radio just now describing even holding the elections as a suicide note for the Tory party (but had no other resolution to propose other than AV between the indicative options).
Cooper/Letwin has set an interesting precedent and sped things along a little (if sped is ever the right word for where we are), that's all. No deal was never something the government could ever have worked for - hence none of the Leaver Cabinet members have resigned over it.
Blame will be attached accordingly
Whether this has any chance of getting through the Commons I’m doubtful but it might flush out how many at this stage are willing to go for that.
People are sick of this incompetent farce by the Tories, no one blames Labour for a Tory/UKIP fiasco. They just want it over, and no longer care how.
My killer bit of anecdata: My secretary (Sixty something, horsey set, Tory voting, ex police) has signed the Revoke petition.
https://twitter.com/averageMP/status/1114086195703816192
May's sole tactic has been to bludgeon her deal through by running down the clock, but the EU27 are only going to let No Deal happen by a conscious UK choice. Her tactic has repeatedly failed, yet she sticks to it.
May cannot command control of her own cabinet. This is a disintegrating government. Labour cannot be blamed for that, merely for exploiting the situation.
It's clear the Government needs fresh energy and Theresa May has led her party into civil war
However, the one explosive issue you have not included is if France, Spain and Belgium carry out their threat to veto any extension. In many ways I am on their side, if I am being fair, as there are no circumstances those countries, and others, would want to allow UK MEPs in their new parliament, especially after the ill judged threats to it by Farage and JRM
If this comes about next wednesday the HOC has just 48 hours to either pass TM deal or revoke. There is no time for a GE or referendum.
On balance I think 'high noon' arrives on thursday 11th April but we will see and we do not have long to wait
That being said, Cooper Letwin and all those who voted for it are guilty of serious treachery against the country. Are they in the pay of the EU? Why else would they be committing the UK to £Bn's of expenditure into the future?
If the thing passes, the EU will say, if you want that extension its £20, 40, 50bn a year, or whatever they choose.
A plague on all of them in parliament.
As I think I've said many a time, I knew in my gut then it was all over. I've spent the last two years trying to deny it.
It's the hope that kills you. I can deal with despair.
However, I do expect TM to stand down later this spring or the early summer
Thanks for the tips.
It is time supporters of both the main parties accepted that between them they have failed the country and each deserves to reap the reward at the ballot box at the next GE
Special place in hell and all that.
Dominic Grieve is the man to blame for the whole mess, if it's true it were he who secured MPs having the final say on the deal. Had May's deal needed no ratification from the House, this would have all been over long ago
And just two days to take the action in the biggest crisis since WW2
May then forshadowed Brexit herself, by constantly promising to go, yet never actually doing it.
This treachery rhetoric is both pathetic and dangerous .
I do think the EU will offer a long extension conditional on our taking part in the Euro-elections. I don't know Tory MP feelings well enough to judge if they'll swallow that, but I guess yes. I also think that May will hang on as long as she can and will not step down voluntarily - the one constant over the last two years has been her style of soldiering on regardless. That makes an election difficult - Newport or not, the Tories can't relish a rerun of 2017 at this point, but they cannot dislodge her until Christmas if she really refuses to go.
So I think we may be continuing this discussion a year from now...
And I have no problem with either, just no deal which would be a total failure of our politics
Overall, 208 Conservatives have been returned unopposed, or are guaranteed election. Hundreds more don't have Labour or Lib Dem opponents. One ward in Lichfield has not been contested in 20 years.
But have you had a bet?
I am in the Smoke on Friday for a meeting, was planning to pop to Parliament Square to see the circus in the evening. I expect an extension though. Tusk will have his way and 29/3/20 will be the new Brexit day.
Of course your comments are a wish list rather than a likely end result.
The country is utterly sick to death of Brexit and is unlikely to want to re-visit it in a generation, if ever
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1114443238134382592
1) She can only be replaced by MPs
2) Her successor would be chosen by party members
3) The party members are nuts
4) The MPs know this
I hope you enjoy your football and let us hope by friday something tangeable will have happened with brexit
(I think the publicly visible votes of Tory MPs are somewhat nutser than their votes in a secret ballot, as they don't want to upset the members.)
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/final-poll-before-israeli-election-shows-right-wing-bloc-with-solid-lead-1.7088735
It's like me linking to the Express.
One of her big mistakes was to assume the country would rally behind given that decision had already been made.
For 6 months May has failed to engage in that process and now, at the 11th hour, she hints at compromise but it turns out to be a sham.
She deserves the humiliation of having to Revoke, resign and go down in history as the worst PM of our lifetimes. If this leads to a Brucie Bonus of the splintering of the Tory Party then at least she will have a Legacy.
Elsewhere, it is a lovely spring morning , the lambs are frolicking in the fields and the coffee tastes good.
Voter: "I'm fed up with all the parties, I won't vote!"
Me: "Yes, it's a mess, isn't it? But won't you consider a vote for me for the local council? It's not our fault!"
Voter: "I suppose you're right. So what is your position on Brexit?"
Hung Parliaments are exhausting and make you subject to the whims of MPs egos (the new bastards, the old bastards, the DUP and anyone else who fancies a go) but the fact we're in that situation is due to May.
That said I am very depressed that we face do many more months of uncertainty and a GE to boot probably. If we at least resolved something first rather than merely extend it would fine to face a GE but it's such a bloody mess.
Have a good day everyone. I think I'll head outside and try to forget Brexit ever existed.
I quite fancy Rameses de Teillee and Step Back for e/w. Any one taking horseracing bets from me is a fool though!
£12.50 E/W Tea for Two 80-1
£25 E/W Monbeg Notorious 66-1
£25 E/W Dounikos 33-1
£25 E/W Jury Duty 20-1
£25 E/W Rock The Kasbah 20-1
1/2 stakes back so the cost was £125 (1/4 the odds, 5 places)
As an aside on the Grand National, even though I'm a racing fan, I don't worship the race or Cheltenham the way so many do. I much prefer Royal Ascot and the flat these days.
I'd make two points about the race and how the changes have affected it - first, it's a better race in terms of horse quality than it used to be. The Gold Cup fourth is carrying top weight, the bottom weight is a former Scottish National winner. The no-hopers who used to get into the race 20 or 30 years ago are gone.
So you have better horses and better riders. At the same time, however, the fences have been made "easier". The impact is to make the race akin to the Scottish or Welsh National but with different jumps. It's a quality long distance handicap chase. The corollary of that is better horses over easier fences go quicker and speed kills. Horses travelling at speed are more at risk than the plodder who just stops so I'd argue the changes have made the race more of a risk to the horse than otherwise.
As to what wins today, JOE FARRELL ran a strong race at Newbury and if you can get 20s it's a decent e/w price. I don't really have a strong view on the race this year.
Of all May's bad actions offering to just talk with the man because her position is weak is not one of them and I find it hilarious so many in her party found that action the final straw. It is so undeniably a partisan justification. The one time she at least attempts, to some small degree, to be non partisan, and she's condemned