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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cooper-Letwin has probably killed Brexit

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  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    It's not even worth arguing about. Every major politician (most of whom were campaigning for Remain) said that the 2016 decision was final and there would be no going back, and so it is.

    The advantage of living under the rule of law, as we do, is that that makes no difference. Try Africa if you want the law to be rewritten on the fly by Big Men giving interviews on the telly.
    FWIW, here is what the manifestos on which the Conservatives and Labour stood for the last General Election had to say about their responses to the 2016 referendum:


    * Conservative: "We are leaving the European Union. We want to ensure our departure is smooth and orderly and to agree a deep and special partnership with the 27 remaining member states."

    * Labour: "We will build a close co-operative future relationship with the EU, not as members but as partners."

    t renders the whole exercise of voting even more pointless. The basic message that is now being given to voters who query why it is that politicians can't be arsed to do what they said they would is "We are representatives not delegates, so fuck off."

    The British political system basically consists of electoral districts in which there is no point in voting because the same party enjoys such vast advantages in terms of support that it always wins, and electoral districts in which there is no point in voting either because all of the candidates who could win lie about virtually everything, so informed choices are therefore impossible. This is no longer a functioning democracy.
    Dementia tax, Hunting Act repeal? There are always things in manfestos which governments don't implement. As for Labour, they aren't in power, so not much of their manifesto has been implemented.
    d then democracy is dead in this country and there will be plenty of people out there who will try and make sure it is properly buried.
    It really does feel like uncharted territory. Maybe it will just be disillusionment, and knock down voting intentions a little bit. I know MPs offices (and associations) are getting pretty ugly telephone calls and emails, but it could be much more.

    Canvassing is grim across the board, and it isnt either just a conservative thing, its long term voters telling us that they wont be voting for anyone. It might just be an anger that subsides. But some people feel like the legitimate and fair result is been undermined by Parliament.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    The words “we told you so” are being screamed at the screen:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1114516511702564864?s=21

    Many of us agree with that. It still doesn't make the concept of leaving wrong.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:


    Nope I just think that is an excuse from sore losers who want to find any way they can to overturn the referendum result. Why try and build bridges with someone like Meeks when he will spit in your face. I am talking about reaching out to reasonable people not lunatic fanatics like those trying to overturn the result.

    "Why did the losers not collaborate with us to deny the winners what we promised them?"

    It's contemptible and always was.
    You are talking even more gibberish than usual William. And I thought that was almost impossible.
    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/740589926450860032
    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/741363396550000640
    Nope, still gibberish from you. How does that tie in with your comment of denying the winners want they want? I think your mind is finally going.
    You favour a form of Brexit that keeps free movement of people, do you not?
    I do indeed. And according to the polls at the time of the referendum so did almost half of those voting leave. Of course you Euro-fanatics just pick those who wanted to end FoM and claim they represent the whole of the Leave campaign. But as many of us on both sides have made clear from the start, a 52:48 result does not mean we should just abide by the wishes of the 26% or so of the total vote who wanted a hard Brexit. It is called compromise - something you seem to be utterly incapable of understanding or doing.
    The compromise Leave voters are expected to make seems to be on the result
    You're only in this situation because Leave campaign leaders cannot decide between themselves what kind of Brexit they want.
    Its nothing to do with them. The PM made the deal and that should be that.
    But the ERG won't support it.

    Never mind - you'll get your chance in Ref2 :smile:
    Anyone calling for a second referendum will be ashamed of themselves in years to come.
    They should be ashamed of themselves now but of course they have no shame - or principles.
    Leavers could have left by now, they had a deal for leaving, they had a majority, they just couldn't agree amongst themselves.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    Floater said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:


    Nope I just think that is an excuse from sore losers who want to find any way they can to overturn the referendum result. Why try and build bridges with someone like Meeks when he will spit in your face. I am talking about reaching out to reasonable people not lunatic fanatics like those trying to overturn the result.

    "Why did the losers not collaborate with us to deny the winners what we promised them?"

    It's contemptible and always was.
    You are talking even more gibberish than usual William. And I thought that was almost impossible.
    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/740589926450860032
    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/741363396550000640
    Nope, still gibberish from you. How does that tie in with your comment of denying the winners want they want? I think your mind is finally going.
    You favour a form of Brexit that keeps free movement of people, do you not?
    I do indeed. And according to the polls at the time of the referendum so did almost half of those voting leave. Of course you Euro-fanatics just pick those who wanted to end FoM and claim they represent the whole of the Leave campaign. But as many of us on both sides have made clear from the start, a 52:48 result does not mean we should just abide by the wishes of the 26% or so of the total vote who wanted a hard Brexit. It is called compromise - something you seem to be utterly incapable of understanding or doing.
    The compromise Leave voters are expected to make seems to be on the result
    You're only in this situation because Leave campaign leaders cannot decide between themselves what kind of Brexit they want.
    Its nothing to do with them. The PM made the deal and that should be that.
    But the ERG won't support it.

    Never mind - you'll get your chance in Ref2 :smile:
    Anyone calling for a second referendum will be ashamed of themselves in years to come.
    They should be ashamed of themselves now but of course they have no shame - or principles.
    Absolutely
    ... wrong!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    ☺☺☺
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    kinabalu said:

    Right, so Tiger Roll will not be looking too short about 15 mins from now when he trots up by 10 lengths. Not bothering with any others. Or the place. All in.

    Good call!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,007
    kinabalu said:

    Right, so Tiger Roll will not be looking too short about 15 mins from now when he trots up by 10 lengths. Not bothering with any others. Or the place. All in.

    Well done!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So could you enunciate the principle which rules out a second vote? I have pointed out that the Athenians had no problem with it. Democracy means giving people choices. I want them to have a choice, you don't. Which of us is democratic?

    Me because I want to respect the choice made by the demos
    How do you propose we respect the choice of Northern Ireland and Scotland?
    We voted as one
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    Was that Magic of Light second at 125/1 ?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    kinabalu said:

    ☺☺☺

    Drinks are you then!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So could you enunciate the principle which rules out a second vote? I have pointed out that the Athenians had no problem with it. Democracy means giving people choices. I want them to have a choice, you don't. Which of us is democratic?

    Me because I want to respect the choice made by the demos
    How do you propose we respect the choice of Northern Ireland and Scotland?
    We voted as one
    That is self-evidently untrue. If there were any sense of a collective decision the ongoing sense of division would not exist never mind have intensified.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    kinabalu said:

    Right, so Tiger Roll will not be looking too short about 15 mins from now when he trots up by 10 lengths. Not bothering with any others. Or the place. All in.

    That is an amazingly prescient post. Well done sir
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628

    So much for Yorkshire's finest.

    There should be money returned for any that fall at the first :wink:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Was that Magic of Light second at 125/1 ?

    It said 66/1 on ITV, but if you got 125/1, well done!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    notme2 said:

    But some people feel like the legitimate and fair result is been undermined by Parliament.

    Some people?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    tlg86 said:

    Was that Magic of Light second at 125/1 ?

    It said 66/1 on ITV, but if you got 125/1, well done!
    Good job I didn't go SP :smile:

    And doesn't that demolish the "half the horses in the National don't have a choice" talk.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So could you enunciate the principle which rules out a second vote? I have pointed out that the Athenians had no problem with it. Democracy means giving people choices. I want them to have a choice, you don't. Which of us is democratic?

    Me because I want to respect the choice made by the demos
    How do you propose we respect the choice of Northern Ireland and Scotland?
    We voted as one
    That is self-evidently untrue. If there were any sense of a collective decision the ongoing sense of division would not exist never mind have intensified.
    If England had voted Leave but the balance had been tipped by Scotland Ireland and Wales voting Remain I would have worn it, and anyone who complained would have been dubbed a "Little Englander"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So could you enunciate the principle which rules out a second vote? I have pointed out that the Athenians had no problem with it. Democracy means giving people choices. I want them to have a choice, you don't. Which of us is democratic?

    Me because I want to respect the choice made by the demos
    How do you propose we respect the choice of Northern Ireland and Scotland?
    That is their call. They are currently in a single nation called the United Kingdom. When last asked about it, they said "Yup, so we are....."
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    My Grand National bet is on Blow By Blow boosted to 100/1.

    Went e/w.

    Not expecting to win.

    I've backed Rathvinden, Walk In The Mill and Singlefarmpayment. So, that's three more that won't place, for those still yet to take a punt and looking for indications of which nags to avoid like the plague.
    Well well, two places - that's gone rather better than I thought. A modest profit in the offing.

    Of course, I should've kept the faith from twelve months ago and backed Tiger Roll again. But, you know, gift horses and all that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    kinabalu said:

    Right, so Tiger Roll will not be looking too short about 15 mins from now when he trots up by 10 lengths. Not bothering with any others. Or the place. All in.

    Shit or bust. Just like the ERG.
    Unlike the ERG, it was the right call.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sorry Tiger Roll backers - Oliver Letwin isn’t paying out - horses may have changed their mind since the result.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "How I know the Conservative party is doomed
    James Delingpole"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/how-i-know-the-conservative-party-is-doomed/
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Tiger Roll for SPOTY .... we've had four legged winners before - Torvill & Dean .... :smiley:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    Was that Magic of Light second at 125/1 ?

    It said 66/1 on ITV, but if you got 125/1, well done!
    Good job I didn't go SP :smile:

    And doesn't that demolish the "half the horses in the National don't have a choice" talk.
    Indeed. That said, I think the handicapper didn't do a great job. When Red Rum won the 1974 National, he carried 12 stone and was top weight. Tiger Roll should have been carrying more than 11 stone 5.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Leavers just continue to lie and lie. This is way more damaging to democracy than rerunning a vote.

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114500236150550529

    My lies good and their lies bad.

    And that's why compromise becomes ever more difficult.
    On the contrary. Our relationship with Europe is a big and important issue and should be debated at the highest level on both sides. I have nothing but respect for a well made case even if I don't personally agree with it. Indeed it obliges me to think the issue over again. E.g.,

    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1114466874572640256
    Well that pretty much rules out the entirety of the furriners / harlipool / refugee-camps-at-Dover / the-crops-are-rotting-in-the-fields / there-are-no-strawberries-at-Wimbledon / the-City-is-moving-to-Frankfurt / no-its-happening-behind-the-scenes / I-know-people-who-have-been-redundant / there-will-be-an-immediate-recession / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2017 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2018 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2019 / fishfingers-will-be-5p-more-expensive claims which have dominated the Remainer side of the debate since the Referendum.
    / refugee-camps-at-Dover / - never heard that one

    the-crops-are-rotting-in-the-fields / - this has happened https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-44884882


    there-are-no-strawberries-at-Wimbledon / - I think that was leavers extrapolating from the previous story

    the-City-is-moving-to-Frankfurt / on its way
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/29/london-to-lose-800bn-to-frankfurt-as-banks-prepare-for-brexit

    no-its-happening-behind-the-scenes / I am making preparations to move operations to the continent, but nobody else in the company knows about it because I don't want to alarm them until I really have to do it.

    I-know-people-who-have-been-redundant / - try for example Honda in Swindon

    there-will-be-an-immediate-recession / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2017 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2018 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2019 / - what do you think is going to happen when businesses stop stockpiling and start destocking

    fishfingers-will-be-5p-more-expensive claims - not heard that one. It is pretty likely food costs will indeed go up in event of no deal.
    For the top one -- https://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check/2016/feb/08/jungle-will-there-be-kent-migrant-camps-if-britain-leaves-eu
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TGOHF said:

    Sorry Tiger Roll backers - Oliver Letwin isn’t paying out - horses may have changed their mind since the result.

    You what? Rule the World won the Grand National, and anyone claiming otherwise should be ashamed of themselves.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    JackW said:

    Tiger Roll for SPOTY .... we've had four legged winners before - Torvill & Dean .... :smiley:

    In 2002 the winner of the lifetime achievement award was completely legless. Does that count?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019
    Backed the 6th each way, only 5 places though :/

    Backed UKIP - 13%, one seat
    Backed Leave - they win, we don't leave

    Think I am jinxed
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Was that Magic of Light second at 125/1 ?

    It said 66/1 on ITV, but if you got 125/1, well done!
    Good job I didn't go SP :smile:

    And doesn't that demolish the "half the horses in the National don't have a choice" talk.
    Indeed. That said, I think the handicapper didn't do a great job. When Red Rum won the 1974 National, he carried 12 stone and was top weight. Tiger Roll should have been carrying more than 11 stone 5.
    Hang on a cotton picking minute !! .... Tiger Roll had Nicholas Soames on board too and even a slimmed down version of the Honourable Gentleman is plenty of overweight to carry !!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Do I understand that there's great excitement because a horse that was expected to win a race did so?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    Tiger Roll for SPOTY .... we've had four legged winners before - Torvill & Dean .... :smiley:

    In 2002 the winner of the lifetime achievement award was completely legless. Does that count?
    Indubitably ... :sunglasses:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019

    Do I understand that there's great excitement because a horse that was expected to win a race did so?

    One of the strange things about betting for me is when a unusually short fav in a big field wins.. Tiger Woods circa 2000 was the same phenomena. Seems like they should win despite being fairly big odds against

    4/1f wins the National it seems obvious

    4/1 Labour win a seat where the Conservatives were 1/3f it's a big shock, but both had 20% chance of success
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628


    Leavers just continue to lie and lie. This is way more damaging to democracy than rerunning a vote.

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114500236150550529

    My lies good and their lies bad.

    And that's why compromise becomes ever more difficult.
    On the contrary. Our relationship with Europe is a big and important issue and should be debated at the highest level on both sides. I have nothing but respect for a well made case even if I don't personally agree with it. Indeed it obliges me to think the issue over again. E.g.,

    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1114466874572640256
    Well that pretty much rules out the entirety of the furriners / harlipool / refugee-camps-at-Dover / the-crops-are-rotting-in-the-fields / there-are-no-strawberries-at-Wimbledon / the-City-is-moving-to-Frankfurt / no-its-happening-behind-the-scenes / I-know-people-who-have-been-redundant / there-will-be-an-immediate-recession / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2017 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2018 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2019 / fishfingers-will-be-5p-more-expensive claims which have dominated the Remainer side of the debate since the Referendum.
    / refugee-camps-at-Dover / - never heard that one

    the-crops-are-rotting-in-the-fields / - this has happened https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-44884882


    there-are-no-strawberries-at-Wimbledon / - I think that was leavers extrapolating from the previous story

    the-City-is-moving-to-Frankfurt / on its way
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/29/london-to-lose-800bn-to-frankfurt-as-banks-prepare-for-brexit

    no-its-happening-behind-the-scenes / I am making preparations to move operations to the continent, but nobody else in the company knows about it because I don't want to alarm them until I really have to do it.

    I-know-people-who-have-been-redundant / - try for example Honda in Swindon

    there-will-be-an-immediate-recession / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2017 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2018 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2019 / - what do you think is going to happen when businesses stop stockpiling and start destocking

    fishfingers-will-be-5p-more-expensive claims - not heard that one. It is pretty likely food costs will indeed go up in event of no deal.
    Here's Vince Cable claiming that there are no strawberries at Wimbledon:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYGggnF0WAc

    That was quite easy to find as I had already posted it earlier in the thread.

    And what else have you got - its going to happen, its going to happen, its going to happen, please let it happen and punish the wicked Leavers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    isam said:

    Do I understand that there's great excitement because a horse that was expected to win a race did so?

    One of the strange things about betting for me is when a unusually short fav in a big field wins.. Tiger Woods circa 2000 was the same phenomena. Seems like they should win despite being fairly big odds against

    4/1f wins the National it seems obvious

    4/1 Labour win a seat where the Conservatives were 1/3f it's a big shock, but both had 20% chance of success
    Joe Biden is the next one for your list ;)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628

    Do I understand that there's great excitement because a horse that was expected to win a race did so?

    Technically a 4/1 favourite wasn't expected to win it was instead the least unlikely to win.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    isam said:

    Do I understand that there's great excitement because a horse that was expected to win a race did so?

    One of the strange things about betting for me is when a unusually short fav in a big field wins.. Tiger Woods circa 2000 was the same phenomena. Seems like they should win despite being fairly big odds against

    4/1f wins the National it seems obvious

    4/1 Labour win a seat where the Conservatives were 1/3f it's a big shock, but both had 20% chance of success
    What gives most boasting ability though - a 4/1 favourite which wins or a 125/1 ew which comes second :wink:
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    RobD said:

    Leavers just continue to lie and lie. This is way more damaging to democracy than rerunning a vote.

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114500236150550529

    My lies good and their lies bad.

    And that's why compromise becomes ever more difficult.
    On the contrary. Our relationship with Europe is a big and important issue and should be debated at the highest level on both sides. I have nothing but respect for a well made case even if I don't personally agree with it. Indeed it obliges me to think the issue over again. E.g.,

    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1114466874572640256
    Well that pretty much rules out the entirety of the furriners / harlipool / refugee-camps-at-Dover / the-crops-are-rotting-in-the-fields / there-are-no-strawberries-at-Wimbledon / the-City-is-moving-to-Frankfurt / no-its-happening-behind-the-scenes / I-know-people-who-have-been-redundant / there-will-be-an-immediate-recession / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2017 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2018 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2019 / fishfingers-will-be-5p-more-expensive claims which have dominated the Remainer side of the debate since the Referendum.
    / refugee-camps-at-Dover / - never heard that one

    the-crops-are-rotting-in-the-fields / - this has happened https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-44884882


    there-are-no-strawberries-at-Wimbledon / - I think that was leavers extrapolating from the previous story

    the-City-is-moving-to-Frankfurt / on its way
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/29/london-to-lose-800bn-to-frankfurt-as-banks-prepare-for-brexit

    no-its-happening-behind-the-scenes / I am making preparations to move operations to the continent, but nobody else in the company knows about it because I don't want to alarm them until I really have to do it.

    I-know-people-who-have-been-redundant / - try for example Honda in Swindon

    there-will-be-an-immediate-recession / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2017 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2018 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2019 / - what do you think is going to happen when businesses stop stockpiling and start destocking

    fishfingers-will-be-5p-more-expensive claims - not heard that one. It is pretty likely food costs will indeed go up in event of no deal.
    For the top one -- https://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check/2016/feb/08/jungle-will-there-be-kent-migrant-camps-if-britain-leaves-eu
    So that one dates back quite a few years and was called out at the time by the Guardian. And I don't even remember it. It's not the continual systematic lying the leave side indulge in.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    Not bad for me, for one 4 horses e/w and two placed top five.

    LCFC win and reach 7th place, so a pretty good day.

    Winnings should be enough for a pint of ale.

    PP seems to have crashed though.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,717
    Is everyone having a happy GPS rollover day?

    I hope your cars are still navigating well, and you phones aren't sending you to odd places. ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    Do I understand that there's great excitement because a horse that was expected to win a race did so?

    One of the strange things about betting for me is when a unusually short fav in a big field wins.. Tiger Woods circa 2000 was the same phenomena. Seems like they should win despite being fairly big odds against

    4/1f wins the National it seems obvious

    4/1 Labour win a seat where the Conservatives were 1/3f it's a big shock, but both had 20% chance of success
    What gives most boasting ability though - a 4/1 favourite which wins or a 125/1 ew which comes second :wink:
    More importantly the 125-1 Each Way shot gives you more than 3 times the return for the same stake as the 7-2 winner.

    None of mine even finished :( - I'll continue to take Bet365 half stake offer till the end of time though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    RobD said:

    Leavers just continue to lie and lie. This is way more damaging to democracy than rerunning a vote.

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114500236150550529

    My lies good and their lies bad.

    And that's why compromise becomes ever more difficult.
    On the contrary. Our relationship with Europe is a big and important issue and should be debated at the highest level on both sides. I have nothing but respect for a well made case even if I don't personally agree with it. Indeed it obliges me to think the issue over again. E.g.,

    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1114466874572640256
    Well that pretty much rules out the .
    / refugee-camps-at-Dover / - never heard that one

    the-crops-are-rotting-in-the-fields / - this has happened https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-44884882


    there-are-no-strawberries-at-Wimbledon / - I think that was leavers extrapolating from the previous story

    the-City-is-moving-to-Frankfurt / on its way
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/29/london-to-lose-800bn-to-frankfurt-as-banks-prepare-for-brexit

    no-its-happening-behind-the-scenes / I am making preparations to move operations to the continent, but nobody else in the company knows about it because I don't want to alarm them until I really have to do it.

    I-know-people-who-have-been-redundant / - try for example Honda in Swindon

    there-will-be-an-immediate-recession / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2017 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2018 / there-will-be-a-recession-in-2019 / - what do you think is going to happen when businesses stop stockpiling and start destocking

    fishfingers-will-be-5p-more-expensive claims - not heard that one. It is pretty likely food costs will indeed go up in event of no deal.
    For the top one -- https://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check/2016/feb/08/jungle-will-there-be-kent-migrant-camps-if-britain-leaves-eu
    So that one dates back quite a few years and was called out at the time by the Guardian. And I don't even remember it. It's not the continual systematic lying the leave side indulge in.
    It always struck me as daft. If migrants crossed the channel, why on earth would they stop in Dover? unless they fancied the return journey.

    Project Fear was over done, there needed to be a much more positive campaign for Europe, like we see now on the PV marches. I said so at the time if anyone is bothered to look back.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580


    Leavers could have left by now, they had a deal for leaving, they had a majority, they just couldn't agree amongst themselves.

    Simply untrue. There was no majority in Parliament for May's deal even if all the Leavers voted for it.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Do I understand that there's great excitement because a horse that was expected to win a race did so?

    Technically a 4/1 favourite wasn't expected to win it was instead the least unlikely to win.
    As isam points out, a 4/1 favourite feels different from a 4/1 outsider.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Is everyone having a happy GPS rollover day?

    I hope your cars are still navigating well, and you phones aren't sending you to odd places. ;)

    Mine's got stuck in an endless loop. No matter where I tell it to go, it always ends up back where I started after aimlessly taking me down a lot of unnecessary side streets.

    I shouldn't have asked for a Theresa May voice.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    ydoethur said:

    Is everyone having a happy GPS rollover day?

    I hope your cars are still navigating well, and you phones aren't sending you to odd places. ;)

    Mine's got stuck in an endless loop. No matter where I tell it to go, it always ends up back where I started after aimlessly taking me down a lot of unnecessary side streets.

    I shouldn't have asked for a Theresa May voice.
    She's made the way clear.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,247
    AndyJS said:

    "How I know the Conservative party is doomed
    James Delingpole"

    I understand the idea, but it seems slightly harsh to blame him alone.

  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Somewhat off topic, if anyone has accounts at both bookmakers - I don't - it's possible to bet on
    Labour most seats at odds of 2.4
    Tories most seats at 2.0

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

    Unless there's a total realignment of the main parties in a very short time, one of these results seems likely to me.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    So are we all agreed that the future is going to be **** but we can at least enjoy rubbing our political enemies' noses in the dirt?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    DougSeal said:

    Not really. A Brexit that eased us out of the EU over (for example) 6 years or so, with two years to agree a consensus desired outcome within the U.K, an Art 50 trigger with a subsequent two years to seek to negotiate that desired outcome, and then a two year transition, would have been far more likely to be successfully implemented and difficult to challenge by Remainers - many of whom may have been won round. That may be hopelessly naive but it stood a far better chance of working. I certainly would have been open to persuasion as I was at least mildly Eurosceptic in my younger days.

    Instead it was sold as a revolutionary change that had to be implemented quickly and at all costs. Article 50 was triggered precipitously with huge cheering and clapping from many of those who now decry it as being done too soon. Brexit was, and is, sold as a political revolution against the “elites” but, as with nearly all revolutions, ultimately there will be a reaction. That reaction is what we are seeing now.

    Article 50 as triggered by a Remainer PM with the opposition claiming it should have been done long before and the EU refusing any negotiations until it was triggered. And it was hardly precipitous given it was fully 9 months after we voted to leave.

    But you are right that Brexit has been handled very badly. For that the blame lies with both the PM and Parliament. Neither of which have ever been committed to the project at all.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is everyone having a happy GPS rollover day?

    I hope your cars are still navigating well, and you phones aren't sending you to odd places. ;)

    Mine's got stuck in an endless loop. No matter where I tell it to go, it always ends up back where I started after aimlessly taking me down a lot of unnecessary side streets.

    I shouldn't have asked for a Theresa May voice.
    She's made the way clear.
    Yeah, I know, I can see the M6 Toll lovely and clear just before it diverts me down the A34 to bloody Landywood. And the voice says one, and the directions say another.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,007
    The Irish may be crapping themselves but at least they're dong something about it rather than rolling about the beshitted bed and being laughed at.

    https://twitter.com/tradasro/status/1114430431871606784
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720


    But you are right that Brexit has been handled very badly. For that the blame lies with both the PM and Parliament. Neither of which have ever been committed to the project at all.

    Which other project has the PM spent her political capital on instead of Brexit?

  • Leavers could have left by now, they had a deal for leaving, they had a majority, they just couldn't agree amongst themselves.

    Simply untrue. There was no majority in Parliament for May's deal even if all the Leavers voted for it.
    On the 29th of March had all the Tory Leavers and the DUP voted for Mrs May's deal it would have passed and we would be leaving on Friday.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Somewhat off topic, if anyone has accounts at both bookmakers - I don't - it's possible to bet on
    Labour most seats at odds of 2.4
    Tories most seats at 2.0

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

    Unless there's a total realignment of the main parties in a very short time, one of these results seems likely to me.

    ... and back "any other" at 21!!!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    notme2 said:

    It really does feel like uncharted territory. Maybe it will just be disillusionment, and knock down voting intentions a little bit. I know MPs offices (and associations) are getting pretty ugly telephone calls and emails, but it could be much more.

    Canvassing is grim across the board, and it isnt either just a conservative thing, its long term voters telling us that they wont be voting for anyone. It might just be an anger that subsides. But some people feel like the legitimate and fair result is been undermined by Parliament.

    And it hasn't even officially happened yet. It will get far worse. The very best Remainers can hope for is a massive increase in support for extremist parties and the moderate voters simply refusing to support anyone. I do think there is scope for it to be much worse than that.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    isam said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So could you enunciate the principle which rules out a second vote? I have pointed out that the Athenians had no problem with it. Democracy means giving people choices. I want them to have a choice, you don't. Which of us is democratic?

    Me because I want to respect the choice made by the demos
    How do you propose we respect the choice of Northern Ireland and Scotland?
    Give them the choice to leave the UK.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Somewhat off topic, if anyone has accounts at both bookmakers - I don't - it's possible to bet on
    Labour most seats at odds of 2.4
    Tories most seats at 2.0

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

    Unless there's a total realignment of the main parties in a very short time, one of these results seems likely to me.

    That's more of a bet on an early election than anything else. If parliament lasts till 2022 you've basically got a 2.7% PA bond.
  • isam said:

    Do I understand that there's great excitement because a horse that was expected to win a race did so?

    One of the strange things about betting for me is when a unusually short fav in a big field wins.. Tiger Woods circa 2000 was the same phenomena. Seems like they should win despite being fairly big odds against

    4/1f wins the National it seems obvious

    4/1 Labour win a seat where the Conservatives were 1/3f it's a big shock, but both had 20% chance of success
    What gives most boasting ability though - a 4/1 favourite which wins or a 125/1 ew which comes second :wink:
    Effectively laying something that was considered 1/8 favourite gave me a warm feeling.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    Well it seems Chief Justice was well worth a fiver!

    Thanks to @AlastairMeeks company.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited April 2019
    isam said:

    Somewhat off topic, if anyone has accounts at both bookmakers - I don't - it's possible to bet on
    Labour most seats at odds of 2.4
    Tories most seats at 2.0

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

    Unless there's a total realignment of the main parties in a very short time, one of these results seems likely to me.

    ... and back "any other" at 21!!!
    Lol my regular saver pays better than that lot combined.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    Ishmael_Z said:


    So could you enunciate the principle which rules out a second vote? I have pointed out that the Athenians had no problem with it. Democracy means giving people choices. I want them to have a choice, you don't. Which of us is democratic?

    Nope. That is only half of it. Democracy means giving people choices and then enacting those choices. Simply asking them what they want and then refusing to do it is certainly not democracy.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752

    notme2 said:

    It really does feel like uncharted territory. Maybe it will just be disillusionment, and knock down voting intentions a little bit. I know MPs offices (and associations) are getting pretty ugly telephone calls and emails, but it could be much more.

    Canvassing is grim across the board, and it isnt either just a conservative thing, its long term voters telling us that they wont be voting for anyone. It might just be an anger that subsides. But some people feel like the legitimate and fair result is been undermined by Parliament.

    And it hasn't even officially happened yet. It will get far worse. The very best Remainers can hope for is a massive increase in support for extremist parties and the moderate voters simply refusing to support anyone. I do think there is scope for it to be much worse than that.
    Project Fear ...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Off-topic:

    "Cardiff dad wants unisex baby change facility law"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-47784588

    I can so understand this. When my little 'un was really little, I've had to change my son on tarmac outside (*), in his pram, on the boot of my car (*), at places that nominally had baby-changing facilities - in the ladies, but not the mens'. In one place, a staff member stood guard so I could go into the ladies to change him.

    The most egregious one was a play centre where the men's lavatories didn't have changing facilities, and I had to change him on the floor outside.

    We want more men to look after their children - and that means giving them the facilities to do so.

    (*) With mat.

    Why wouldn’t you just go it to use it? You do t need someone to guard the door.
    As I said in my post:
    " In one place, a staff member stood guard so I could go into the ladies to change him."

    But often that isn't really an alternative when you're on your own with a child. And some women aren't exactly welcoming of a man with a baby or young child at times - but that's a different story ...

    Fortunately, more and more places are having unisex toilets with baby changing (often combined disabled toilet), and stay-at-home dads are being more common.
    My response was you “don’t” need someone to guard the door. You go into the ladies and you use the facilities to change the nappy. I did it plenty of times.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580


    But you are right that Brexit has been handled very badly. For that the blame lies with both the PM and Parliament. Neither of which have ever been committed to the project at all.

    Which other project has the PM spent her political capital on instead of Brexit?
    LOL. Running around in a blind panic with no understanding of the issues at hand is not 'commitment'. It is idiocy.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    notme2 said:

    It really does feel like uncharted territory. Maybe it will just be disillusionment, and knock down voting intentions a little bit. I know MPs offices (and associations) are getting pretty ugly telephone calls and emails, but it could be much more.

    Canvassing is grim across the board, and it isnt either just a conservative thing, its long term voters telling us that they wont be voting for anyone. It might just be an anger that subsides. But some people feel like the legitimate and fair result is been undermined by Parliament.

    And it hasn't even officially happened yet. It will get far worse. The very best Remainers can hope for is a massive increase in support for extremist parties and the moderate voters simply refusing to support anyone. I do think there is scope for it to be much worse than that.
    I don't think so. The antics of Tommy Robinsons neon nazis will quickly piss people off.

    You don't defeat those scum by giving in to them.
  • NEW THREAD

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    The Irish may be crapping themselves but at least they're dong something about it rather than rolling about the beshitted bed and being laughed at.

    https://twitter.com/tradasro/status/1114430431871606784

    Good point. Even if we cancel now, which we obviously should, the damage done is enormous.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,717
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Off-topic:

    "Cardiff dad wants unisex baby change facility law"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-47784588

    I can so understand this. When my little 'un was really little, I've had to change my son on tarmac outside (*), in his pram, on the boot of my car (*), at places that nominally had baby-changing facilities - in the ladies, but not the mens'. In one place, a staff member stood guard so I could go into the ladies to change him.

    The most egregious one was a play centre where the men's lavatories didn't have changing facilities, and I had to change him on the floor outside.

    We want more men to look after their children - and that means giving them the facilities to do so.

    (*) With mat.

    Why wouldn’t you just go it to use it? You do t need someone to guard the door.
    As I said in my post:
    " In one place, a staff member stood guard so I could go into the ladies to change him."

    But often that isn't really an alternative when you're on your own with a child. And some women aren't exactly welcoming of a man with a baby or young child at times - but that's a different story ...

    Fortunately, more and more places are having unisex toilets with baby changing (often combined disabled toilet), and stay-at-home dads are being more common.
    My response was you “don’t” need someone to guard the door. You go into the ladies and you use the facilities to change the nappy. I did it plenty of times.
    Your response was actually "You do t need", which I took to mean 'you do need', with a typo.

    There is no way I would feel happy to go into a ladies without permission or knowledge of someone else. No way.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628

    DougSeal said:

    Not really. A Brexit that eased us out of the EU over (for example) 6 years or so, with two years to agree a consensus desired outcome within the U.K, an Art 50 trigger with a subsequent two years to seek to negotiate that desired outcome, and then a two year transition, would have been far more likely to be successfully implemented and difficult to challenge by Remainers - many of whom may have been won round. That may be hopelessly naive but it stood a far better chance of working. I certainly would have been open to persuasion as I was at least mildly Eurosceptic in my younger days.

    Instead it was sold as a revolutionary change that had to be implemented quickly and at all costs. Article 50 was triggered precipitously with huge cheering and clapping from many of those who now decry it as being done too soon. Brexit was, and is, sold as a political revolution against the “elites” but, as with nearly all revolutions, ultimately there will be a reaction. That reaction is what we are seeing now.

    Article 50 as triggered by a Remainer PM with the opposition claiming it should have been done long before and the EU refusing any negotiations until it was triggered. And it was hardly precipitous given it was fully 9 months after we voted to leave.

    But you are right that Brexit has been handled very badly. For that the blame lies with both the PM and Parliament. Neither of which have ever been committed to the project at all.
    The suggestion that a 'political consensus' could have been reached within two years and then maintained afterwards is also bollox.
This discussion has been closed.