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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Pete Buttigieg – the 37 year old former Rhodes Scholar now run

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,287
    Nigelb said:

    As a response, 'fellating unicorns' definitely beats 'zzzz'.
    I would have thought that being fellated by a unicorn would be fraught with hazard. Disembowelment by their horn being a fairly obvious one!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    Scott_P said:
    Very helpful for Letwin later . Biggest risk was always that MPs might trust her promises, again
  • HYUFD said:

    If MV3 fails tomorrow and indicative votes on Wednesday show a majority for BINO e.g. permanent Customs Union and/or Single Market then May could call a snap general election on her Deal or BINO with Corbyn
    From everything I have read, May won't do that. Lets assume MV3 goes down. Lets further assume that (as an example) Common Market 2.0 emerges as the acceptable to parliament compromise. As Liam Fux pointed out, the government does not have to act on that recommendation.

    Because what penalty does it face? A motion of contempt? Which means what - they were held in contempt last time and nothing happened. A vote of no confidence? Wouldn't pass with ERG nutters cuddling her tight running down the clock to crash day. A "you must go Prime Minister" deputation from Graham Brady? Armed with what power when the party rules state clearly that he cannot make her go.

    If - as seems to be suggested - she has decided that No Deal Brexit is the price worth paying to preserve the Conservative Party, then I do not see how she is stopped. Short of the powers that be having her physically removed on "medical grounds"
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,987

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1110157322557505537

    If she does then we need a plan b, and we need it quick. Otherwise we have to assume that government policy is no-deal, which would be terrible.

    We need seriously to consider the possibility that Theresa has been driven mad by her ERG tormentors and intends to orchestrate No Deal in order to take them down with her.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Scott_P said:
    Maybe she'll tell MPs that she's on their side and this is all the public's fault for being so divided.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    If your passport has been read, or passport data has been lawfully shared, they already have a digitised image of your face which is used as a biometric in compliance with ICAO standards, as he is in China this has almost certainly happened. The only scary bit is that they clearly don't give a damn about sharing the data within China.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    DUP - the party that likes to say NO!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113

    But that essentially gifts Corbyn the remain vote.
    The country voted Leave and if Corbyn wins with the SNP then Corbyn becomes PM and takes over Brexit on a BINO platform while the Tories go into opposition on a hard Brexit ticket probably with Boris as Leader of the Opposition after May resigns
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    HYUFD said:

    If MV3 fails tomorrow and indicative votes on Wednesday show a majority for BINO e.g. permanent Customs Union and/or Single Market then May could call a snap general election on her Deal or BINO with Corbyn
    What is annoying about the current situation is the way in which the current issues relating to Brexit cannot be bought to a conclusion. The first or at the very most the second meaningful vote on the deal should really have been the end of the matter. The endless delay, procrastination and putting things off is difficult to comprehend, given the enormous stakes involved. It seems so predictable, that there isn't even any point in following the news. Dependent on what happens next, it may even be seen as a profound failure of the current political system, ie the point where confidence in our current system of parliamentary democracy ends.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,521
    IMHO, it would be better to do MV3 after the indicative votes. There's a very good chance that nothing will command a majority.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    HYUFD said:

    If MV3 fails tomorrow and indicative votes on Wednesday show a majority for BINO e.g. permanent Customs Union and/or Single Market then May could call a snap general election on her Deal or BINO with Corbyn

    Yep. I can see that. Bigger chance of it than most appreciate.

    I can also see the WA being uncoupled from the PD and passed - then a post Brexit GE under a new Tory leader with the winner of that GE running with the Future Relationship.

    All in all, a GE in 2019 is still IMO a value bet even now at 2.2 (it was 2.8 not so long ago).
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,378
    If she went, I'd wish her well even thought she's a Tory. Incompetence is no crime, but dishonesty should be. There 's about 400 guilty ones in the HoC.
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    Scott_P said:
    I predict she will stand there with a pencil in each nostril and say...whibble...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    From everything I have read, May won't do that. Lets assume MV3 goes down. Lets further assume that (as an example) Common Market 2.0 emerges as the acceptable to parliament compromise. As Liam Fux pointed out, the government does not have to act on that recommendation.

    Because what penalty does it face? A motion of contempt? Which means what - they were held in contempt last time and nothing happened. A vote of no confidence? Wouldn't pass with ERG nutters cuddling her tight running down the clock to crash day. A "you must go Prime Minister" deputation from Graham Brady? Armed with what power when the party rules state clearly that he cannot make her go.

    If - as seems to be suggested - she has decided that No Deal Brexit is the price worth paying to preserve the Conservative Party, then I do not see how she is stopped. Short of the powers that be having her physically removed on "medical grounds"
    In extremis, bring down the govt, form a temporary majority to agree the revocation bill the civil service has already drafted. Or get a long extension if there is time
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    HYUFD said:

    The country voted Leave and if Corbyn wins with the SNP then Corbyn becomes PM and takes over Brexit on a BINO platform while the Tories go into opposition on a hard Brexit ticket probably with Boris as Leader of the Opposition after May resigns
    I suspect that in that scenario Leavers might be whistling in the wind.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,348

    Yep, particularly because the petition had been around for a whole before it took off so really has little to do with her directly. It's like saying the previous petition that got 4.1 million was tainted or invalid because it was originally started by a Leaver.
    Given what constitutes a hate crime nowadays, and how often arguments based on guilt by association are made, I’m surprised it’s so easily brushed off.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    edited March 2019
    Sean_F said:

    IMHO, it would be better to do MV3 after the indicative votes. There's a very good chance that nothing will command a majority.

    Definitely. Last card takes the trick in this game.

    EDIT: But there is always MV4.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949

    We need seriously to consider the possibility that Theresa has been driven mad by her ERG tormentors and intends to orchestrate No Deal in order to take them down with her.
    Or. Possibly, the reason she cleaves so closely to the ERG and DUP is that she is fundamentally more closely aligned to their instincts. She feels at home with them and has sympathy with their aims.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    nielh said:

    What is annoying about the current situation is the way in which the current issues relating to Brexit cannot be bought to a conclusion. The first or at the very most the second meaningful vote on the deal should really have been the end of the matter. The endless delay, procrastination and putting things off is difficult to comprehend, given the enormous stakes involved. It seems so predictable, that there isn't even any point in following the news. Dependent on what happens next, it may even be seen as a profound failure of the current political system, ie the point where confidence in our current system of parliamentary democracy ends.
    It can if we get a Labour government implementing BINO under Corbyn and a Tory opposition under Boris pushing hard Brexit, that may be the only logical outcome
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited March 2019
    glw said:

    If your passport has been read, or passport data has been lawfully shared, they already have a digitised image of your face which is used as a biometric in compliance with ICAO standards, as he is in China this has almost certainly happened. The only scary bit is that they clearly don't give a damn about sharing the data within China.
    That's my point...the data is now shared with China / Chinese companiesc and of course they make Facebook look principled and hard-nosed when it comes to data sharing.

    This is totally standard in China and they already have systems that watch their citizens in this manner.

    I bet loads of peoples reaction will be how cool is this, it's like my iPhone face unlock, not the fact your data is likely be shared widely.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    kinabalu said:

    Yep. I can see that. Bigger chance of it than most appreciate.

    I can also see the WA being uncoupled from the PD and passed - then a post Brexit GE under a new Tory leader with the winner of that GE running with the Future Relationship.

    All in all, a GE in 2019 is still IMO a value bet even now at 2.2 (it was 2.8 not so long ago).
    Possible, May prefers a GE on her Deal to No Deal I think.

    Yes it is all about the future relationship
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    dixiedean said:

    Or. Possibly, the reason she cleaves so closely to the ERG and DUP is that she is fundamentally more closely aligned to their instincts. She feels at home with them and has sympathy with their aims.
    No otherwise we would be leaving with No Deal on Friday
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    Penddu said:

    I predict she will stand there with a pencil in each nostril and say...whibble...
    That would be more useful than anything else she is likely to say.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113

    I suspect that in that scenario Leavers might be whistling in the wind.
    They would have the Tory Party with them finally though
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    edited March 2019
    have just backed MV3 to pass at 3.14 on bf.

    Yes, bonkers but then I have a touching faith in my fellow person.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    Just had a look at the BBC site to see if there was anything new and found this:
    'A British Airways flight destined for Dusseldorf in Germany has landed in Edinburgh by mistake, after the flight paperwork was submitted incorrectly.
    The passengers only realised the error when the plane landed and the "welcome to Edinburgh" announcement was made.'
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    isam said:

    and how often arguments based on guilt by association are made

    Good thing you've above such things, isam!

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    Does anyone seriously think that the Commons will vote to take control today?

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1110136361313583105
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    HYUFD said:

    The country voted Leave and if Corbyn wins with the SNP then Corbyn becomes PM and takes over Brexit on a BINO platform while the Tories go into opposition on a hard Brexit ticket probably with Boris as Leader of the Opposition after May resigns

    If the election is pre-Brexit I think Labour's policy will be negotiate BINO and offer REF2 on whatever BINO deal they come up with.

    And I could see them winning on that platform.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,317
    Foxy said:

    I would have thought that being fellated by a unicorn would be fraught with hazard. Disembowelment by their horn being a fairly obvious one!
    Peak PB. We are discussing whether fellating a unicorn is possible and wargaming scenarios to anticipate the damage if we did... :)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    TOPPING said:

    have just backed MV3 to pass at 3.14 on bf.

    Yes, bonkers but then I have a touching faith in my fellow person.

    I think it will go through. I can't see the Boles/Letwin thing passing and that really leaves sane MPs with one option after that. I think there must be 320 sane MPs, mustn't there?

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Fine, agree the deal and go for Norway. There's two years to negotiate accession to EFTA and the EEA, and agree terms with the EU.
    Yes, most of the so-called alternatives to the Withdrawal Agreement require the Withdrawal Agreement.

    I despair.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    TOPPING said:

    have just backed MV3 to pass at 3.14 on bf.

    Yes, bonkers but then I have a touching faith in my fellow person.

    The one way May has a chance of winning is if the Kyle amendment passes.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    viewcode said:

    Peak PB. We are discussing whether fellating a unicorn is possible and wargaming scenarios to anticipate the damage if we did... :)
    It's being fellated BY a unicorn, isn't it. Wasn't there a TV show some years ago about fellating a pig?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Scott_P said:
    That doesn't really sound very good does it? :D
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Does anyone seriously think that the Commons will vote to take control today?

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1110136361313583105

    I'm not at all certain, but given how close it was last time, it doesn't seem so far-fetched that there will be more no -> yes switchers than the other way around.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949
    HYUFD said:

    No otherwise we would be leaving with No Deal on Friday
    Then why does she exclusively attempt to win them over to the exclusion of all others?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Is there an arb on WA passing Y/N and May still being PM beyond Q2 Y/N ?

    Doesn't look like all combinations of above are possible.

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    kinabalu said:

    EDIT: But there is always MV4.
    John Bercow just called, to laugh at you.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,244
    edited March 2019

    From everything I have read, May won't do that. Lets assume MV3 goes down. Lets further assume that (as an example) Common Market 2.0 emerges as the acceptable to parliament compromise. As Liam Fux pointed out, the government does not have to act on that recommendation.

    Because what penalty does it face? A motion of contempt? Which means what - they were held in contempt last time and nothing happened.
    The Banter Heuristic dictates that Theresa May would be individually held in contempt of Parliament and barred from the House for 14 days, thereby triggering a recall petition, eagerly signed by the 11.65% of Maidenhead constituents who have already signed the Revoke petition. A local resident, Mr Uri Geller, stands in the by-election for the Unicorn Fellatio Party and is swept to power in an outpouring of spoon-bending fervour.

    I really should stop drinking at lunchtime.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,987

    I think it will go through. I can't see the Boles/Letwin thing passing and that really leaves sane MPs with one option after that. I think there must be 320 sane MPs, mustn't there?

    Boris has apparently been dropping hints that he and his gang will vote for Theresa's deal provided that she offers her head on a pike.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/25/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-chairs-cabinet-ahead-of-statement-to-mps-as-calls-for-her-resignation-continue-live-news?page=with:block-5c98b7bbe4b0a5422e63b0ee#block-5c98b7bbe4b0a5422e63b0ee

    Doesn't seem particularly principled to me - wasn't the deal supposed to be morally irredeemable? - but if true perhaps gives room for hope.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    So if we had a system where an MP would take their seat for a day then be replaced through some non-democratic system immediately afterwards, that would be fine?
    Not at all. Nor have I advocated it nor even intimated it anywhere in what I have written.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550

    The Banter Heuristic dictates that Theresa May would be individually held in contempt of Parliament and barred from the House for 14 days, thereby triggering a recall petition, eagerly signed by the 11.65% of Maidenhead constituents who have already signed the Revoke petition. A local resident, Mr Uri Geller, stands in the by-election for the Unicorn Fellatio Party and is swept to power in an outpouring of spoon-bending fervour.

    I really should stop drinking at lunchtime.
    I believe what you are describing there is Boris Johnson's regular dream.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724

    I think it will go through. I can't see the Boles/Letwin thing passing and that really leaves sane MPs with one option after that. I think there must be 320 sane MPs, mustn't there?

    You'd think so - but then up pops Mark Francois or some other loon again on the radio.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395

    I think it will go through. I can't see the Boles/Letwin thing passing and that really leaves sane MPs with one option after that. I think there must be 320 sane MPs, mustn't there?

    Have you been drinking?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    I'm not at all certain, but given how close it was last time, it doesn't seem so far-fetched that there will be more no -> yes switchers than the other way around.

    When push has come to shove MPs have consistently failed to take responsibility. I see no reason why that will change today. My guess is that it will fail by a bigger margin than last time.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    Scott_P said:
    I suppose that is the one thing she cannot say or Bercow will not allow another vote :)
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    edited March 2019

    Yes, most of the so-called alternatives to the Withdrawal Agreement require the Withdrawal Agreement.

    I despair.
    Exactly, whatever we do in future we do need to negotiate our exit from the EU. Even "no deal" crashing out is misleadingly named, as in reality there are loads of small contingency deals already negotiated. The only situation where the WA or something very similar isn't needed is if we Remain.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Not at all. Nor have I advocated it nor even intimated it anywhere in what I have written.
    Okay. So it's not just them taking their seat which is required to respect the vote then, is it? It's them remaining in their seat through the term they were elected for.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    Fine, agree the deal and go for Norway. There's two years to negotiate accession to EFTA and the EEA, and agree terms with the EU.
    Oh yes please. :)
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,569

    Just had a look at the BBC site to see if there was anything new and found this:
    'A British Airways flight destined for Dusseldorf in Germany has landed in Edinburgh by mistake, after the flight paperwork was submitted incorrectly.
    The passengers only realised the error when the plane landed and the "welcome to Edinburgh" announcement was made.'

    If only BA did Article 50 notifications...

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Just had a look at the BBC site to see if there was anything new and found this:
    'A British Airways flight destined for Dusseldorf in Germany has landed in Edinburgh by mistake, after the flight paperwork was submitted incorrectly.
    The passengers only realised the error when the plane landed and the "welcome to Edinburgh" announcement was made.'

    What's the point in having pilots if they can't tell where the auto-pilot is flying the plane?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    TOPPING said:

    Well you might have maintained it but I think it is accepted that an individual MP is elected "on his/her(/their?) party's manifesto".
    If that were the case then about 80% of the current lot would be out on their ear. But more seriously, whatever the public perception, legally what I have said is correct. We vote for individual MPs not for parties.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    TOPPING said:

    You'd think so - but then up pops Mark Francois or some other loon again on the radio.
    320 sane MPs leaves 310 profoundly stupid ones!

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    When push has come to shove MPs have consistently failed to take responsibility. I see no reason why that will change today. My guess is that it will fail by a bigger margin than last time.

    When push has come to shove MPs have consistently failed to take responsibility. I see no reason why that will change today. My guess is that it will fail by a bigger margin than last time.
    Well, I wouldn't be shocked, but if I had to guess I'd expect it to pass. I don't see why MPs who previously wanted to take responsibility would suddenly decide not to today.

    On MV3, I think there's a very good chance it won't even happen. It passing seems very unlikely
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395
    Sean_F said:

    IMHO, it would be better to do MV3 after the indicative votes. There's a very good chance that nothing will command a majority.

    dixiedean said:

    Then why does she exclusively attempt to win them over to the exclusion of all others?
    May deep down probably knows a different play is required but is pathologically incapable of making one.

    So, she does her existing one more regularly: pretend to listen but act non-committaly to everyone before bouncing them all.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,521
    edited March 2019

    Have you been drinking?
    A meeting of the ERG would be like the bar scene in Star Wars.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDpDhofRoXA
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Have you been drinking?

    Not yet!

    Drinking on a mindful of despair is not a recipe for success.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860

    If that were the case then about 80% of the current lot would be out on their ear. But more seriously, whatever the public perception, legally what I have said is correct. We vote for individual MPs not for parties.
    You're including MPs who were reelected after voting against invoking Article 50 in your 80%.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792
    TOPPING said:

    You'd think so - but then up pops Mark Francois or some other loon again on the radio.
    I think Mark Francois is rather hoping that a bit of good old wartime type rationing might be the one diet that stops him looking like the Brexiteer that ate all the pies
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    Scott_P said:
    "subject to DUP being receptive (some think they may be)"

    Just not the DUP.....
  • May will still be arguing the one final heave strategy after we have crashed out and after she has had the Stewardship of the manor of Northstead imposed upon her
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395

    320 sane MPs leaves 310 profoundly stupid ones!

    Who with talent becomes an MP now?

    It’s a career choice now for those who are quite interested in politics at university and want to stay “in the business” thereafter.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Still the same situation as for the last 6 months:

    75ish ERGers who will vote against any ongoing relationship with Europe.

    250ish remainers who will block any deal, thus running severe risk of no-deal

    +various others with incompatible red lines, personal vendettas, cheap politics, and so on.


    Mission impossible for anyone.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    TOPPING said:

    have just backed MV3 to pass at 3.14 on bf.

    Yes, bonkers but then I have a touching faith in my fellow person.

    It's not bonkers. We can only leave the EU by passing the WA. And we are leaving the EU - we had a referendum on that in 2016.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922
    Scott_P said:
    "No decision was taken" certainly has the ring of truth.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    "subject to DUP being receptive (some think they may be)"

    Just not the DUP.....
    Early days yet - the DUP have not shifted .... "yet" ....


    The vote may be on , or it may not be. Or it might yet be or it might not.

    Those looking for certainty at any point will be disappointed.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    AndyJS said:

    What's the point in having pilots if they can't tell where the auto-pilot is flying the plane?
    The pilots plan was to fly the plane to Edinburgh, it's the passengers who thought they were going to Düsseldorf.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395

    When push has come to shove MPs have consistently failed to take responsibility. I see no reason why that will change today. My guess is that it will fail by a bigger margin than last time.
    Most MPs didn’t become MPs to take responsibility.

    They became MPs because their egos demanded they a big public profile whilst parroting the latest political fashions and playing to their audience.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789

    Most MPs didn’t become MPs to take responsibility.

    They became MPs because their egos demanded they a big public profile whilst parroting the latest political fashions and playing to their audience.
    politics - acting for ugly people
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Aaargh: why can't BBC journalists get anything right?

    The news at one just announces that the UK's biggest fraud trial is starting today. Really, I think. I wonder which one that is.

    Oh no - it turns out that it is not a trial at all but the civil case between Autonomy (Mike Lynch) and HP.

    How difficult it is for a journalist to understand the difference between a criminal trial and a civil case? This is basic stuff.

    (This complaint is completely unconnected with the fact that the UK's biggest fraud trial was the one I handled.)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    Endillion said:

    John Bercow just called, to laugh at you.

    Given that he is being ignored for MV3 I conclude that when it comes to this matter he is eminently ignorable.
  • Just had a look at the BBC site to see if there was anything new and found this:
    'A British Airways flight destined for Dusseldorf in Germany has landed in Edinburgh by mistake, after the flight paperwork was submitted incorrectly.
    The passengers only realised the error when the plane landed and the "welcome to Edinburgh" announcement was made.'

    The good news is that their luggage will have arrived in Dusseldorf
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Anyway, it will be No Deal on April 12th. Why? Our MPs and government are numpties and are not using the time granted by the EU to do something useful.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789

    meanwhile the Vicar of Bath versus kezia rumbles on

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-47693895
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1110168464050794497

    If she was serious, she would sack them...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1110168464050794497

    If she was serious, she would sack them...

    She can’t, can she?

    She needs every vote.
  • TGOHF said:

    Early days yet - the DUP have not shifted .... "yet" ....


    The vote may be on , or it may not be. Or it might yet be or it might not.

    Those looking for certainty at any point will be disappointed.
    You really think the DUP will shift position? Really?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Which do people think will be worse?

    No deal or never ending purgatory of extensions.

    I think the latter will cause more uncertainty and do more damage ultimately.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, it will be No Deal on April 12th. Why? Our MPs and government are numpties and are not using the time granted by the EU to do something useful.

    A further long can kick I think, with a very angry EU.

    No-one wants No Deal.
  • Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1110168464050794497

    If she was serious, she would sack them...

    She just repeats the position of whoever she spoke to last. That is not leadership.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1110168464050794497

    If she was serious, she would sack them...

    If they were serious they would sack her.

    No deal is a viable option just not an ideal one.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792

    Who with talent becomes an MP now?

    It’s a career choice now for those who are quite interested in politics at university and want to stay “in the business” thereafter.
    There are quite a number of very talented individuals. Many of whom are individually minded so therefore are not on the frontbenches of either of the two main parties. Our party political system is broken. The cream no longer rises to the top, it is homogenised so as to become indistinguishable from the sour old curds that are favoured by the party faithful. Corbyn and May are the end result of this, and the Brexit fiasco the concomitant allergic reaction.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789

    having protested aginst customs checks and disparaging online processing for RoI to NI trade, the RoI decides to go for customs checks and online processing for trade NI to RoI


    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/central-part-of-government-s-brexit-strategy-off-the-table-in-no-deal-scenario-1.3837760
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Cyclefree said:

    Aaargh: why can't BBC journalists get anything right?

    The news at one just announces that the UK's biggest fraud trial is starting today. Really, I think. I wonder which one that is.

    Oh no - it turns out that it is not a trial at all but the civil case between Autonomy (Mike Lynch) and HP.

    How difficult it is for a journalist to understand the difference between a criminal trial and a civil case? This is basic stuff.

    (This complaint is completely unconnected with the fact that the UK's biggest fraud trial was the one I handled.)

    A civil trial is a trial.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    She can’t, can she?

    She needs every vote.
    She would have sacked the coup-plotters first.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395

    There are quite a number of very talented individuals. Many of whom are individually minded so therefore are not on the frontbenches of either of the two main parties. Our party political system is broken. The cream no longer rises to the top, it is homogenised so as to become indistinguishable from the sour old curds that are favoured by the party faithful. Corbyn and May are the end result of this, and the Brexit fiasco the concomitant allergic reaction.
    Such as?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    You really think the DUP will shift position? Really?
    I think there is an offer that can be made that they might accept.

    Will it be offered ? Who knows ?

    Normal rules have gone out the window.

    Mrs May has until Friday I suspect to get something done or she is out.

    But then we thought that for the last 3 weeks..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    TGOHF said:

    Early days yet - the DUP have not shifted .... "yet" ....


    The vote may be on , or it may not be. Or it might yet be or it might not.

    Those looking for certainty at any point will be disappointed.
    The EU?
This discussion has been closed.