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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Pete Buttigieg – the 37 year old former Rhodes Scholar now running 3rd in Iowa
A new poll for next year’s Iowa caucuses is just out and puts a 37 year old former Rhodes Scholar from Indiana who you have probably never heard of in 3rd place.
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On topic: One poll does not '3rd in Iowa' make. Given his national and other Iowa polling it's highly likely to be an outlier at this stage. I like Buttigieg but he'll need a lot more polling like this to get his fundraising up, otherwise he's unlikely to survive to Iowa. We forget that most campaigns don't end on Super Tuesday, they run out of cash and are practically (and sometimes officially) shut down before a vote is cast.
Has Biden officially ruled himself in or out yet?
Although he is third in Iowa on 11% just ahead of Harris on 10% he is also still well behind Biden on 24% and Sanders on 23%
Ie. in effect Implement the Withdrawal Agreement without the backstop. Which obviously isn’t a runner, and is therefore just designed to avoid the blame for the effects of crashout no deal (“no deal would have been fine if only the Govt/EU had allowed time to prepare for it...”)
Good luck to any who followed my tip.
A new Fox poll has Biden beating Trump 47% to 40% and Sanders beating Trump 44% to 41% but Trump beats Harris 41% to 39% and Trump beats Warren 42% to 40%.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/03/24/joe-biden-leads-donald-trump-2020-election-matchup-poll-finds/3261265002/
Remember the only candidate since WW2 to beat an incumbent president after only one term of his party in the White House, Ronald Reagan, was 69 when he beat Carter in 1980
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Bend,_Indiana
One wonders why Trump even bothered to stand for election himself (maybe he thought the polls in 2014 weren’t a decisive indicator...)
Major (crap)
Blair (style over substance)
Brown (crap)
Cameron (style over substance)
May (crap
No wonder Chuka thinks the job should be his. However, who from the Tory ranks is the charismatic empty suit to sustain the pattern?
It would be nice if they broke with tradition and just chose someone competent. Or is that too much to ask?
Given Trump’s tendency to change personel, what chance a new running mate in 2020? I am sure he would be tempted by a Nelly The Elephant dream ticket: Trump Trump.
His appeal is vastly overstated compared to Clinton being poison in the rustbelt.
(FWIW, I still think Biden/Harris a fairly strong possibility.)
I’m also backing him as Democrat nominee as I think Trump’s chances in 2020 (assuming he stands again as the incumbent) are undercooked.
That cuts both ways, as voters views on his have become entrenched for good or bad, since the election, but incumbency is still a factor.
Trump
Trump
Trump.....
Theresa May will never revoke. And I sincerely doubt any Conservative PM would unilaterally do so, even Lidington.
The best you could say (from your point of view) is they put it back to a 2nd referendum to resolve the impasse.
I’m very confident if we did that the EU would (again) extend, EU elections or not, as they think it would end Brexit and stabilise the EU.
Eltham 14.1%
Devon Central 14.1%
Totnes 14.0%
Somerton & Frome 13.6%
Somerset NE 13.5%
Sutton & Cheam 13.1%
Chippenham 12.9%
Interesting that those are all in either London or the West Country.
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584
They are absolutely mandatory for a referendum, GE, or any extension.
Harris makes far more sense than (say) O'Rourke or Buttigieg, a she has considerably more experience, particularly in Washington.
And two white guys on the Democratic ticket is perhaps not the best idea for them, ceteris paribus.
Time was that the likes of Cash, Redwood, JRM, Bone, etc were simply eccentric, amiable enough figures of fun way out on the fringes of the mainstream Conservative Party. No one had heard of Bridgen or Francois.
Now they are running the show.
Theresa May spent the weekend haunting Chequers, after an attempted exorcism by Michael Gove and David Liddington failed to end her relentless torment of existing in the netherspace between the corporeal world and the hereafter.
Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of people enjoyed a walk through London to protest against democracy. Jeremy Corbyn, the nation’s foremost manhole cover enthusiast, refused to attend and instead occupied himself by imitating a buffoon from the 1970s.
On the continent, France was on fire, Sweden has no government, Merkel has no authority, Spain is in the middle of an election, and the Italian Government is strong and stable, suggesting the end times are upon us.
Salford & Eccles: 12.0%
Calder Valley 11.5%
Shipley 11.2%
Lancaster & Fleetwood 10.9%
Skipton & Ripon: 10.8%
Hazel Grove 10.7%
Warrington South 10.5%
Leeds West 10.3%
Newcastle North 10.3%
Sheffield Heeley 10.0%
Weaver Vale 9.9%
Colne Valley 9.5%
Eddisbury 9.5%
Congleton 9.4%
Keighley 9.2%
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584
Quite a few in leafy Cheshire and some which will be influenced by local universities - Shipley for example has trains to Leeds and Bradford
Still a lot of options.
The Commons as a whole voted by a 200 majority to extend Article 50 and against the Government to take No Deal off the table permanently
LOL
The situation you describe would likely lead to us reentering the EU with bells and whistles within 5 years, and joining the euro.
The best way to make Brexit sustainable is to leave the EU without damaging the country.
But for the real ERG nutters leaving without damage means that too much has been given away in negotiations - 'if its not hurting then its not working' is their mentality. They need chaos as catharsis.