politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It appears the cabinet has decided to take back control from T
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It's entirely possible that this also leads to change in Labour. Corbyn will have seen off May and rumour is he wants to go anyway.HYUFD said:
There won't be a 'decade of hard left government' a Corbyn minority government, propped up by the SNP in all likelihood, would be trailing badly behind a Boris led Tory opposition within a year, it would be Hollande in France but worse. It may even take Umunna to do a Macron and keep Boris out of No 10RoyalBlue said:
It’s all very well to write off the Tory Party. You might have a different view after a decade of a hard left government.kle4 said:
Then they should agree a custod - something would emerge in its place in time.RoyalBlue said:
If we leave with no deal, the party may lose up to 10 MPs and a few members. If Brexit is not delivered, the party will lose 100 MPs and a majority of its membership.kle4 said:
If you can think of a Brexit scenario which does not end in the Tories getting massacred at a GE I'd love to hear it, because I cannot see it - either the ERG win and we no deal and the party splits, or some kind of arrangement is suggested/approved which the ERG refuse to accept and the party splits.RoyalBlue said:
If she does that, the ERG may well refuse to support the government in a vote of confidence. An election will follow, which the Tories will fight with a leader and PM who no-one has heard of. We will be massacred.kle4 said:Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another ikely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.
It will probably be what happens.
No option seems able to avoid at least a small split, and any amount means they fall, we have a GE where they have a leader no one has heard or/likes, and they lose.
The latter is an extinction level event.
Anyway, bedtime.0 -
I’m just going to leave this here...
https://www.libdemvoice.org/vince-for-pm-how-it-might-happen-55372.html
170/1 with betfair...0 -
Hunt doesn't seem to understand, or to have seen the job advert. Which might as well read: "Resilient and dispensable candidate wanted as interim PM to deliver a customs union with Labour support and then take the flak from his or her colleagues"CarlottaVance said:
If he doesn't like the job he shouldn't apply.0 -
For the time being at least, the script remains that (soft) Brexit is being delivered. Avoiding either of your extremes. Besides, the ERG and their ilk have nowhere else to go, and depend on the Tory Party and its safe seats to spread their virus.RoyalBlue said:
If we leave with no deal, the party may lose up to 10 MPs and a few members. If Brexit is not delivered, the party will lose 100 MPs and a majority of its membership.kle4 said:
If you can think of a Brexit scenario which does not end in the Tories getting massacred at a GE I'd love to hear it, because I cannot see it - either the ERG win and we no deal and the party splits, or some kind of arrangement is suggested/approved which the ERG refuse to accept and the party splits.RoyalBlue said:
If she does that, the ERG may well refuse to support the government in a vote of confidence. An election will follow, which the Tories will fight with a leader and PM who no-one has heard of. We will be massacred.kle4 said:Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another displacement activity. I think everyone on earth who is not a piece of plankton can see that May is a hindrance to any solution now, but even so just declaring she must go without any agreement on what to do doesn't seem likely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.
It will probably be what happens.
No option seems able to avoid at least a small split, and any amount means they fall, we have a GE where they have a leader no one has heard or/likes, and they lose.
The latter is an extinction level event.0 -
Hunt's going for the next job. The advert for that may include "be furious at Lidington and reject entirely his necessary compromises with reality."IanB2 said:
Hunt doesn't seem to understand, or to have seen the job advert. Which might as well read: "Resilient and dispensable candidate wanted as interim PM to deliver a customs union with Labour support and then take the flak from his or her colleagues"CarlottaVance said:
If he doesn't like the job he shouldn't apply.0 -
You may be right that things are heading back that way, if the coup is starting to struggle as rumour suggests. A coup needs to be quick and ruthless, not debated for hours in advance in the press.kle4 said:
My point was that the idea that May should not be removed until the withdrawal process has been completed has been an obvious ploy for absolutely bloody ages and a very significant factor in why she is still there at all, so why start leaking to journalists that the coup is on right now? All it seems to have accomplished is show they still have no agreement on anything so pre announcing the coup is pointless.HYUFD said:
What they are saying is perfectly sensible, the indicative votes have to be held first and the Brexit withdrawal process completed first before the leadership is reexaminedkle4 said:
So if Peston is right really nothing has changed, since the only reason May is still in place is because no one wants the job now, they want the direction of Brexit made clear and then they want to take over?CarlottaVance said:
The only difference seems to be that they are admitting that, even though the 'May as lightning rod for Brexit' policy has been speculated on for, well, years?
Nevertheless the problem remains that May cannot do politics and has neither the flexibility or ability to cope with a change in Brexit direction, especially after everything she has said.0 -
The Mueller Report would make for a better story if we knew what it said...MTimT said:Can't believe this is the lead story rather than the Mueller Report ... LOL
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It would be astonishing if the Tory party had been more efficient at carrying out a coup than all the other shit that they've been in charge of for the last two & half years.IanB2 said:
You may be right that things are heading back that way, if the coup is starting to struggle as rumour suggests. A coup needs to be quick and ruthless, not debated for hours in advance in the press.kle4 said:
My point was that the idea that May should not be removed until the withdrawal process has been completed has been an obvious ploy for absolutely bloody ages and a very significant factor in why she is still there at all, so why start leaking to journalists that the coup is on right now? All it seems to have accomplished is show they still have no agreement on anything so pre announcing the coup is pointless.HYUFD said:
What they are saying is perfectly sensible, the indicative votes have to be held first and the Brexit withdrawal process completed first before the leadership is reexaminedkle4 said:
So if Peston is right really nothing has changed, since the only reason May is still in place is because no one wants the job now, they want the direction of Brexit made clear and then they want to take over?CarlottaVance said:
The only difference seems to be that they are admitting that, even though the 'May as lightning rod for Brexit' policy has been speculated on for, well, years?
Nevertheless the problem remains that May cannot do politics and has neither the flexibility or ability to cope with a change in Brexit direction, especially after everything she has said.0 -
Ooops! Reuter's didn't get the memo(s):
LONDON (Reuters) - Hundreds of thousands of people opposed to Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union marched through central London on Saturday to demand a new referendum as the deepening Brexit crisis risked sinking Prime Minister Theresa May’s premiership......
...In the June 23, 2016 referendum, 17.4 million voters, or 52 percent, backed Brexit while 16.1 million, or 48 percent, backed staying in the bloc.
But ever since, opponents of Brexit have been exploring ways to hold another referendum. Some opinion polls have shown a slight shift in favour of remaining in the European Union, but there has yet to be sustained evidence of a decisive change in attitudes.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-march-idUKKCN1R40C60 -
A coup needs to seize control of the army barracks and the radio station. The Tories appear to have captured the post office.Theuniondivvie said:
It would be astonishing if the Tory party had been more efficient at carrying out a coup than all the other shit that they've been in charge of for the last two & half years.IanB2 said:
You may be right that things are heading back that way, if the coup is starting to struggle as rumour suggests. A coup needs to be quick and ruthless, not debated for hours in advance in the press.kle4 said:
My point was that the idea that May should not be removed until the withdrawal process has been completed has been an obvious ploy for absolutely bloody ages and a very significant factor in why she is still there at all, so why start leaking to journalists that the coup is on right now? All it seems to have accomplished is show they still have no agreement on anything so pre announcing the coup is pointless.HYUFD said:
What they are saying is perfectly sensible, the indicative votes have to be held first and the Brexit withdrawal process completed first before the leadership is reexaminedkle4 said:
So if Peston is right really nothing has changed, since the only reason May is still in place is because no one wants the job now, they want the direction of Brexit made clear and then they want to take over?CarlottaVance said:
The only difference seems to be that they are admitting that, even though the 'May as lightning rod for Brexit' policy has been speculated on for, well, years?
Nevertheless the problem remains that May cannot do politics and has neither the flexibility or ability to cope with a change in Brexit direction, especially after everything she has said.New Thread
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