Undefined discussion subject.

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

Anorak said:

RobD said:

Anorak said:

Analysis 1, Conspiracy Lunacy 0. Really weird how the places with the most expats are closest to the top of the list. Craaaaaazy.
https://twitter.com/jamesdotcuff/status/1109079185987915779

Russian bots aren’t sophisticated enough to spoof IP addresses (if that’s even how that is determined) but yet threw the 2016 referendum?

Tin. Foil. Hat.

It was partly tongue in cheek, but the concern with these petitions is a real one. It really isn’t difficult to pretend you are in the UK. I have no doubt the vast majority are real though.

The map is based on self-entered postcode. If there are a lot of bot sigs, they are doing a very good job of modelling a distribution of postcodes reflecting the Remain vote in 2016.

But we should recognise your greater expertise, posting here from thousands of miles away.

Again, that is trivial thing to do, if one wanted to. It isn't like the data relating to Remain / Leave areas isn't in the public domain.

AnneJGP said:

Good afternoon, everybody.

I'm a bit confused. Up to yesterday the leaving date was written into the UK law as 29 March, or so I'd understood. Now the EU have decided to offer an extension (good) and the date written into UK law has been superceded by the EU's offer?

How did that happen? Or are there plans to change the law to the new date?

Any help welcome. Thanks in anticipation.

Yes - the change is due to pass the HOC and HOL this week

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Stereotomy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1109065273657737216

EUref2 would probably win that then but without a majority

Hmm... is it possible... could MP's themselves reach a decisive position.. alight on a solution ..actual functioning of the legislature?

Surely not.

It would not get the enabling bill past the HOC by 12th April and that is mandated for any extension

I do apologise to PB for constant repetition of this issue but it needs to colour everyone' s thoughts

I am not saying it is impossible by the 12th April but I would suggest extremely unlikely

Indeed Hyufd is very knowledgeable and I am surprised he has not refered to the enabling legislation road block

Out of interest, what happens if we haven't passed the necessary legislation by 12th April but then unilaterally revoke on that date?

Do we have to pass the legislation by 12 April (or 13 April, depending on the frantic discussions taking place in Strasbourg right now)? Maybe we can declare our intent by the 12th and get the legislation through in the days following.

No -

The enabling legislation has to have received royal assent by the 12th April otherwise we cannot stand MEPs in the campaign starting on the 12th April. That is why the EU named this date

For the Lolz, we could pass the MV legislation by the 11th April. We then get the extension to 22nd May to get the remaining legislation out the way (which we do on time or sooner) and then for a good laugh, because we are in the longer transition period the PM revokes on 21st May.

We break the EU.

Who on here said the EU might not survive the UK leaving? Perhaps we could do a Sir Humphrey and break the EU by staying.

rcs1000 said:

Anorak said:

Aaaaany minut now, they'll realise that the EU caving on Brexit is the only thing that will save them. Soon. Very soon...
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1109092601624444928

Germany biggest export industry is capital goods, and the slowdown in China is dramatically impacting demand

See https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/deu/

Yes and if you look at the export destinations for goods in 2017 7.1% went to China and 6.8% went to the UK. Seeing as we are stockpiling at the moment, it can be assumed that we have bought forward demand for German goods. When we reverse this process and if China keeps slowing down I can only see it getting worse for Germany short term. Which also means it gets worse for the countries that supply the German export machine with intra-EU trade.

tlg86 said:

Could an amendment be tabled to the MV that means a GE is triggered if it is passed?

Great question and I really don't know. My hunch is No because the FTPA lays down just the 2 very specific paths to a GE - the 2/3 majority one and the VONC + 14 days one.

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, Miss JGP.

I believe a new bill has to pass the Commons to amend the exit date.

Verulamius said:

AnneJGP said:

Good afternoon, everybody.

I'm a bit confused. Up to yesterday the leaving date was written into the UK law as 29 March, or so I'd understood. Now the EU have decided to offer an extension (good) and the date written into UK law has been superceded by the EU's offer?

How did that happen? Or are there plans to change the law to the new date?

Any help welcome. Thanks in anticipation.

Section 20(4) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 allows the definition of Exit Day to be changed by regulations, otherwise known as statutory instrument. So secondary legislation rather than primary.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AnneJGP said:

Good afternoon, everybody.

I'm a bit confused. Up to yesterday the leaving date was written into the UK law as 29 March, or so I'd understood. Now the EU have decided to offer an extension (good) and the date written into UK law has been superceded by the EU's offer?

How did that happen? Or are there plans to change the law to the new date?

Any help welcome. Thanks in anticipation.

Yes - the change is due to pass the HOC and HOL this week

Thank you, everybody. (I hope the blockquotes survive.)

tlg86 said:

kinabalu said:

tlg86 said:

Could an amendment be tabled to the MV that means a GE is triggered if it is passed?

Great question and I really don't know. My hunch is No because the FTPA lays down just the 2 very specific paths to a GE - the 2/3 majority one and the VONC + 14 days one.

What a terrible piece of legislation the FTPA is.

Luckily, there is something of a sunset clause. It is up for review in 2020.

TheValiant said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Stereotomy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1109065273657737216

EUref2 would probably win that then but without a majority

Hmm... is it possible... could MP's themselves reach a decisive position.. alight on a solution ..actual functioning of the legislature?

Surely not.

It would not get the enabling bill past the HOC by 12th April and that is mandated for any extension

I do apologise to PB for constant repetition of this issue but it needs to colour everyone' s thoughts

I am not saying it is impossible by the 12th April but I would suggest extremely unlikely

Indeed Hyufd is very knowledgeable and I am surprised he has not refered to the enabling legislation road block

Out of interest, what happens if we haven't passed the necessary legislation by 12th April but then unilaterally revoke on that date?

Do we have to pass the legislation by 12 April (or 13 April, depending on the frantic discussions taking place in Strasbourg right now)? Maybe we can declare our intent by the 12th and get the legislation through in the days following.

No -

The enabling legislation has to have received royal assent by the 12th April otherwise we cannot stand MEPs in the campaign starting on the 12th April. That is why the EU named this date

For the Lolz, we could pass the MV legislation by the 11th April. We then get the extension to 22nd May to get the remaining legislation out the way (which we do on time or sooner) and then for a good laugh, because we are in the longer transition period the PM revokes on 21st May.

We break the EU.

Who on here said the EU might not survive the UK leaving? Perhaps we could do a Sir Humphrey and break the EU by staying.

Well that is an idea, but I expect 12th April is the last date for revoke

Sky update

Angela Merkel has just confirmed that the 12th April is very important as the validity of the EU elections cannot be undermined

tlg86 said:

kinabalu said:

tlg86 said:

Could an amendment be tabled to the MV that means a GE is triggered if it is passed?

Great question and I really don't know. My hunch is No because the FTPA lays down just the 2 very specific paths to a GE - the 2/3 majority one and the VONC + 14 days one.

What a terrible piece of legislation the FTPA is.

Dreamed up on the back of a fag packet by those two pillocks who did so much to make the UK what it is today, David Cameron and Nick Clegg.

Waiting patiently for this to arrive on Netflix.

https://twitter.com/DadJokeMan/status/1109109202776145922

tlg86 said:

What a terrible piece of legislation the FTPA is.

It is. And it slipped through with so little fanfare.

It was that David Cameron again. Perfectly nice chap but ...

stodge said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

stodge said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Now just the express. The mail is pro deal

No, the Mail is pro-May.

And pro deal. I subscribe to the on line newspaper

No, don't confuse the one with the other. They are pro-Deal because they are pro-May not the other way round. If May switched to supporting No Deal, the Mail would follow. It will be interesting who will receive the mail's endorsement as her successor. I think they might support Javid or Hunt.

Probably

Mr. 86, all it needed was a sunset clause. Said at the time it was daft not to have one.

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1109112695595417601

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1109112695595417601

Not sure it being difficult is a reason not to do something.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 86, all it needed was a sunset clause. Said at the time it was daft not to have one.

It does kinda have one. The PM is required to set up a committee to review the Act in 2020.

Sean_F said:

Anorak said:

Sean_F said:

Scott_P said:

De Gaulle was a big fan of referenda, which he used to by-pass the National Assembly.

I think we can all, remainers and leavers alike, agree that De Gaulle was an ungrateful, spiteful bastard who soured UK-Franco relations more than anyone since Henry II took back Calais.

That he was, but he did us a favour in vetoing our application for EU membership, had we had eyes to see it.

And that's the point, my leaver friend, where we will just have to agree to disagree

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1109112695595417601

Not sure it being difficult is a reason not to do something.

It really is. And often a very, very good one.

I'd like to swim the channel, for example.

Mr. Anorak, invading Persia was a bit tricky, but it didn't put off Alexander.

Floater said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1109111215928864768

While in his own country, the army will be on the streets this weekend armed with automatic weapons and will be allowed to open fire if required.

Yes - he has some nerve

His grant debates have gone down about as well as finding out that the Maybot is to headline the next Strictly Live Tour.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVzc4Orlk3E

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1109116012723617793

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Well that is an idea, but I expect 12th April is the last date for revoke

Sky update

Angela Merkel has just confirmed that the 12th April is very important as the validity of the EU elections cannot be undermined

But that cannot be right. What position are we in?

Presently, until 29th March we are in the A50 notice period. We can, unilaterally, revoke that notification and remain in the EU.

Then, from 30th March to 12th April, we are in.... what? The extended Article 50 period? So we can still revoke, unilaterally.

If the Deal passes etc etc, what do we move into between 13th April 2019 and 22nd May 2019. If we CAN'T revoke, we aren't in the Article 50 period. If we're not in the Article 50 notification period, then we can't be members of the European Union. So what are we?

Genuine question for the boffins here. I know its mostly theoretical, but if we take the Deal, are we out from 12th April or not? If we're not, why can't we revoke until 21st May?

It matters, because once Remainers get wind of this, they know that the 12th April isn't a true hard deadline. The true hard deadline of when Remain becomes Rejoin is actually 22nd May.

((I think it's all academic - the MV probably won't pass; but its interesting if it does))

Mr. Pulpstar, even basic forward planning has been atrocious by almost all MPs.

May's obviously been rubbish, but hundreds of MPs backed triggering Article 50 and seem not to have realised the necessary consequence is that unless they back a deal (or something like a referendum/revocation occurs) we leave with no deal.

TheValiant said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Well that is an idea, but I expect 12th April is the last date for revoke

Sky update

Angela Merkel has just confirmed that the 12th April is very important as the validity of the EU elections cannot be undermined

But that cannot be right. What position are we in?

Presently, until 29th March we are in the A50 notice period. We can, unilaterally, revoke that notification and remain in the EU.

Then, from 30th March to 12th April, we are in.... what? The extended Article 50 period? So we can still revoke, unilaterally.

If the Deal passes etc etc, what do we move into between 13th April 2019 and 22nd May 2019. If we CAN'T revoke, we aren't in the Article 50 period. If we're not in the Article 50 notification period, then we can't be members of the European Union. So what are we?

Genuine question for the boffins here. I know its mostly theoretical, but if we take the Deal, are we out from 12th April or not? If we're not, why can't we revoke until 21st May?

It matters, because once Remainers get wind of this, they know that the 12th is a true hard deadline. The true hard deadline of when Remain becomes Rejoin is actually 22nd May.

((I think it's all academic - the MV probably won't pass; but its interesting if it does))

The 12th is the hard deadline

The deal woukd take us to 22nd May but you cannot revoke post 12th April because we will not have taken part in the EU elections as confirmed by Angela Merkel

John Redwood just said he does not know 'where people get these crazy ideas'

You could not make this up

OnlyLivingBoy said:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1109078649532235777?s=20

This is fascinating polling on four Brexit options.

No deal is clearly inferior to both Ref2 and Norway+, since more people dislike it and fewer like it than either of these other options.

May's deal is clearly inferior to Norway+, since more people dislike it and fewer like it (although Ref2 is more popular than May's deal, it is also more unpopular).

This suggests either Ref2 or Norway+ would be reasonable options, although Ref2 is more polarising with more likes and dislikes than the latter.

My personal preference is Ref2 but Norway+ is a good compromise, as the least unpopular and second most popular outcome.

It feels like Norway+ aka BINO will be where we end up. Kind of a pointless waste of three years, but hey ho, thanks Dave.

Yes, that polling is very clear that Norway+ is the French restaurant compromise, when he loves Chinese food but hates Indian and she loves Indian but hates Chinese.

Ishmael_Z said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1109112695595417601

Not sure it being difficult is a reason not to do something.

Well, it would be a good reason for not trying to climb Everest naked, for instance. Until you can demonstrate that you are any more capable of arranging a satisfactory brexit than you are of doing that, I'd keep quiet if I were you.

I can't see any benefits from climbing Everest naked (unless you are an exhibitionist). I can see benefits from Brexit.

Sean_F said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1109116012723617793

I'd be very surprised if the DUP really did want to leave without a deal on 29th March.

I think the DUP would be content with Norway or even remain

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I am watching the most idiotic display of pique from ERG members who seem to be in full panic and wrecking mood

I am now behind Norway or remain and the re-drawing of the political lanscape. I do not care if ERG attempt to paralyse the government

The laughs to be had in watching the ERG wreckers realising they've blown it, has almost made the last few years in UK politics worth it.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1109116012723617793

And John Redwood has just threatened her with their 'coalition', ie ERG and DUP

The ERG are the useful idiots of the DUP, who will allow the DUP to end up with No Brexit without losing face for having supported it.

This thread is old news.

kinabalu said:

TudorRose said:

You'd need sponsors. Brexit IV Semi-Final 1 supported by Popcorn-U-Like....

:-)

And there would be plenty of interest, I would have thought.

However, almost as soon as I hit POST I realized a fatal flaw - the very serious risk of match fixing.

Final game, REF2 vs REVOKE, and REF2 needs the win to top the table, just pipping JobsFirstBrexit, whereas REVOKE is tailed off and out of the reckoning.

What's to stop REVOKE throwing it?

And if they do, presenting victory to REF2 on a platter, what will be the reaction of the supporters of JobsFirstBrexit? Will they riot?

Easy solution, like the way they do it in World Cups: have the games run simultaneously.
That is - give everyone involved a sheet of paper with all the matchups on them and get them to make their choices there and then. Go down the paper, ticking their preferred head-to-head winner in each case.

You can then add them up one at a time to provide the tension, if you prefer, but the final result would be untainted.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DUP highly critical of TM not getting a better deal out of the EU and will not support MV3

TM needs to lead on this and put forward the indicative votes. Her deal has died

You for #CorbynsCustomsUnion yet

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DUP highly critical of TM not getting a better deal out of the EU and will not support MV3

TM needs to lead on this and put forward the indicative votes. Her deal has died

While a delay and soft Brexit might be the only option left it does of course spell huge trouble for the Tory Party as Michael Portillo said on TW last night. The notion the 70% Leave voting activist, membership and voter base will take kindly to a set of Euro elections and a long delay to Brexit is for the birds.

I see #CorbynsCustomsUnion is the least disliked outcome.

Also seen as a good outcome by more than Tin Ears Deal Or No Deal

Pulpstar said:

bigjohnowls said:

I see #CorbynsCustomsUnion is the least disliked outcome.

Also seen as a good outcome by more than Tin Ears Deal Or No Deal

Amusingly it is legally identical to May's deal

Am sure if they had put the word Corbyn in front of it. Its unpopularity would have soared

RH1992 said:

glw said:

RH1992 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1109056411563118592

That banner is awful. It's attempting to be "down with the kids" yet it's got some pretty deeply unpopular leaders in front of it.

I don't know if you heard it but the sycophantic guffawing that occompanied the "jokes" from Tusk and Juncker last night was something to be heard. It was about as real as Trump's hairline.

The EU's media operation is pretty diabolical. It expects a higher level of respect for the institutions than the US media to the US President. This seems to be observed by most of the media of the member states and their own internal media provider, and it sees the British media including pro-Remain outlets as a thorn in the side when they ask unwanted questions. I was pro-Remain in the referendum and would probably vote the same if there were another referendum, but the way the EU attempts to portray itself as an infallible force for good does not wash with me.

Agreed. That should be the British contribution to the EU. Stir it up a bit.

I stand corrected if the petitioner herself did act threateningly. However, the petition campaign itself, rather than her as a private individual, and the march today, have threatened no-one, and been remarkable for their good nature considering the circumstances.