politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for the no deal Blame Game
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for the no deal Blame Game
There’s little doubt that the Mail’s front page this morning correctly sums up the current position in relation to brexit with just 8 days to go. Given what the EU response was to Theresa May’s request for more time and her ongoing desire to get her deal approved then there must be an increasing chance that No Deal becomes what happens.
Comments
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If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a simple choice.0
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The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
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May's somewhat embarrassing performance last night makes it clear that for her it is her deal or no deal. Either way we are leaving provided she remains in charge. The request for a short continuation is either going to be refused (unless the deal is agreed) or close the door on a longer extension. It will also take us past the day when we can revoke.
It is hardly surprising the likes of Grieve was furious yesterday but for loons like IDS it means no deal is a lot more likely. There is no chance of them backing the deal in these circumstances so she is dependent upon remainers deciding her deal is better. These would be the same people she was abusing on national TV last night, of course.0 -
Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
Yep - but in May's mind that will be complete failure. I suspect to revoke the Tories need to remove her by Monday..Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
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So how’s that building of a consensus for Brexit going?0
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There will be outrage if there's a revocation of article 50 next week. It would just be the most ridiculous of all outcomes.
Surely a no deal, then managed as best we can would not be so bad. Matters will have to work. No deal looks by far the most likely outcome to me now and actually not the worst and wasn't no deal better than a bad deal?
Operation yellowhammer starts on Monday!0 -
It's close as to whether the revoke petition becomes the most signed (on the official online platform) by 9am.AlastairMeeks said:So how’s that building of a consensus for Brexit going?
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I think the only way of stopping Brexit is to pass a VONC.eek said:Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
Yep - but in May's mind that will be complete failure. I suspect to revoke the Tories need to remove her by Monday..Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
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FPT
If you think your typical Labour MP is going to abstain you've got another coming.FF43 said:
According to her minders, who don't seem to be doing a good job of controlling her, this was supposedly a pitch to Labour MPs to get on with the job of approving her policy. Don't see it working at that level. Or any level really.rottenborough said:
If Labour MPs do abstain enough to pass the deal, it will be because they felt trapped by an incompetent and dishonest PM, much as many of her own MPs will feel. It will store up resentment for the future negotiations where real hard decisions need to be made.
Labour Leave seat MPs can still vote against as their constituents are (mainly) happy with No Deal. Labour Remain MPs will vote against as their constituents want revoke.
Put bluntly May could present her deal 1,000 times it won't make any difference.0 -
So who is going to resign today? Rudd is the most likely but what about the likes of Hammond? Do they hang on to see if May's reckless gamble works or abandon ship now?
May is in her charmless way looking to put together a majority of remainers and the few of her party that still pay any attention to the whip. She seems unconcerned that the majority of her own party may well vote against her. That leadership challenge by the ERG is looking one of the stupidest steps in an incredibly crowded and competitive field but we must now be in her final days, I am tempted to say hours.0 -
No Deal will kill the Tories. Whoever takes the grumpy-right-populist spot that UKIP used to fill will clean up.
The problem isn't just the blame for letting No Deal happen, which will *mostly* attach to them. It's also for all the specific things that will go wrong that could theoretically have been planned for. There's no way for a government to do something like this, even with good planning and excellent people, and come out of it looking competent. And this government doesn't have good planning and excellent people, to put it mildly.
One thing will unite the nation, from left to right, brexit to remain: The government bollocksed up the implementation.0 -
Except May will be able to say that she moved heaven and earth to get her deal through and it was blocked by the other parties who could have supported it. That's even true, if that matters.edmundintokyo said:No Deal will kill the Tories. Whoever takes the grumpy-right-populist spot that UKIP used to fill will clean up.
The problem isn't just the blame for letting No Deal happen, which will *mostly* attach to them. It's also for all the specific things that will go wrong that could theoretically have been planned for. There's no way for a government to do something like this, even with good planning and excellent people, and come out of it looking competent. And this government doesn't have good planning and excellent people, to put it mildly.
One thing will unite the nation, from left to right, brexit to remain: The government bollocksed up the implementation.0 -
I think Hammond has reconciled himself to his indispensability in the case of no deal, that he must stay to mitigate the worst effects.DavidL said:So who is going to resign today? Rudd is the most likely but what about the likes of Hammond? Do they hang on to see if May's reckless gamble works or abandon ship now?
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So the petition has reached 500,000 so will need to be debated in Parliament. I wonder if that will be today, tomorrow or Monday as Bercow could prioritise it above everything else.
And that gives everyone a way out - put revoke to a vote and see who actually votes against.0 -
It doesn't matter. It's not about No Deal happening. It's about what happened when it did.DavidL said:
Except May will be able to say that she moved heaven and earth to get her deal through and it was blocked by the other parties who could have supported it. That's even true, if that matters.edmundintokyo said:No Deal will kill the Tories. Whoever takes the grumpy-right-populist spot that UKIP used to fill will clean up.
The problem isn't just the blame for letting No Deal happen, which will *mostly* attach to them. It's also for all the specific things that will go wrong that could theoretically have been planned for. There's no way for a government to do something like this, even with good planning and excellent people, and come out of it looking competent. And this government doesn't have good planning and excellent people, to put it mildly.
One thing will unite the nation, from left to right, brexit to remain: The government bollocksed up the implementation.
Farage, Corbyn, the right-wing press, everybody will be saying the same thing: It wasn't the concept. It was the implementation.0 -
The two largest parties are led by pygmies. They seem to be leapfrogging each other to see who can be the most vile.
Get yourselves together Tiggers or Lib Dems or Greens bcause after this is over we're going to need you.0 -
Ditch MayPhilip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a simple choice.
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The Labour Party has been voting against the Deal for party political reasons rather than because they honestly oppose it, so in that sense Mrs May is right to blame MPs in the way she has.0
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This is a huge stuff up and botched negotiations. But blame will fall all over the place.
There is clearly a big element of brinkmanship from the EU playing on a divided house in the UK.
This is the way things always go with EU matters - always down to the wire, forcing or making hay with political disunity and disfunction in member countries.
Right at the start of this process so many people predicted it would come down to the last minute and the EU would extract max concessions from the UK.
Ultimately I have no doubt the EU wants a more EU friendly government in London, and a reversal of Brexit.
It has friends in the UK parliament towards this.
This is a huge struggle for power and sovereignty in the UK. this is why it has turned into a huge crisis and the language used is our subjugation, capitulation to, or freedom from the EU.
I think the EU will be blamed as much as the UK parliament for no deal, when it happens next week. But both share the blame for not getting a better outcome earlier.
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Hammond has been stunningly ineffective as Chancellor both in economic terms and even more significantly in political terms. Economically, he has done nothing useful, he has simply kept a steady ship. He has not addressed the serious imbalances in our economy, he has not sought to defuse ticking time bombs like student debt, he has spent more money but got very little bang for his bucks.OblitusSumMe said:
I think Hammond has reconciled himself to his indispensability in the case of no deal, that he must stay to mitigate the worst effects.DavidL said:So who is going to resign today? Rudd is the most likely but what about the likes of Hammond? Do they hang on to see if May's reckless gamble works or abandon ship now?
Politically, he has been the weakest and least relevant Chancellor I can recall. Even Darling had more sway and influence and he was dealing with a true madman.
In short I am somewhat unpersuaded of his indispensability.0 -
That’s not true. The fact people around May believe that is one of the reasons she is in so much trouble.AndyJS said:The Labour Party has been voting against the Deal for party political reasons rather than because they honestly oppose it, so in that sense Mrs May is right to blame MPs in the way she has.
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There’s plenty of scope for blame all around. The Prime Minister has to take prime responsibility.0
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Which doesn't prevent No Deal unless a Revoker PM can command the confidence of the House, by next weekend.Sean_F said:
I think the only way of stopping Brexit is to pass a VONC.eek said:Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
Yep - but in May's mind that will be complete failure. I suspect to revoke the Tories need to remove her by Monday..Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
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Well, we may well see. I think that there is plenty of blame to go around and the perception is that in her inept, incompetent, mildly autistic way May has done her best to prevent no deal.edmundintokyo said:
It doesn't matter. It's not about No Deal happening. It's about what happened when it did.DavidL said:
Except May will be able to say that she moved heaven and earth to get her deal through and it was blocked by the other parties who could have supported it. That's even true, if that matters.edmundintokyo said:No Deal will kill the Tories. Whoever takes the grumpy-right-populist spot that UKIP used to fill will clean up.
The problem isn't just the blame for letting No Deal happen, which will *mostly* attach to them. It's also for all the specific things that will go wrong that could theoretically have been planned for. There's no way for a government to do something like this, even with good planning and excellent people, and come out of it looking competent. And this government doesn't have good planning and excellent people, to put it mildly.
One thing will unite the nation, from left to right, brexit to remain: The government bollocksed up the implementation.
Farage, Corbyn, the right-wing press, everybody will be saying the same thing: It wasn't the concept. It was the implementation.0 -
Ìf the WA is anathema to them, and they don't want No Deal, that is indeed what they must do.Jonathan said:
Ditch MayPhilip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a simple choice.
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When are the EU going to realise we hold all the cards?0
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I still think the Deal makes sense, but short of Labour MPs having a change of heart this weekend after returning to their constituencies, I don’t see it happening.
I no longer feel any terror of No Deal. There will be bumps, but none of the worst fears will be realised and the Government will introduce emergency tax cuts to boost the economy. It will also make Brexit totally irreversible.0 -
Someone posed the counterfactual yesterday of how this would all be going if Cameron had stayed on. Last night was a key example of where it would be different. He would have been having one to ones in the Commons, killing Mark Francois - or at least Lucy Allan - with kindness and asking them to indulge him one last time on this. He’d probably share a whisky with some Eurosceptic and clubbable old Etonian and reminisce about Major’s bastards.
He certainly wouldn’t go on national TV and tell them what arses they were being.
I think we’re back in the realms of 100+ defeat. Any hint of goodwill on both sides will have gone, especially from the bulging intersection in the Venn diagram “Backwoods Eurosceptics/Men of a certain vintage who don’t appreciate being told what to do by a woman”. To have any chance, this needed a ‘one last push, and if X will vote for it then I can’ dynamic. That has been replaced by ‘screw you’.
Given how much time has run down and how many options have been removed, No Deal feels like a prominent challenger now. TM has made it clear she won’t countenance other options, and the opposition lacks the cojones and co-ordination to make her. Tory rebellion is unlikely to unseat her in 8 days; even a HoC VONC couldn’t give a stable government before DDay.
I’ve been a firm “the deal will probably get there in the end” peddler until now. But I’m not so sure today.
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But you'll have to accept your share, Alastair.AlastairMeeks said:There’s plenty of scope for blame all around. The Prime Minister has to take prime responsibility.
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I see the MPs are still delusional.
"My adoring public love me, darlings."
They'll get a nasty shock when they meet the real public.
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It is not for Labour to bail Mrs May out of her hopeless deal.AndyJS said:The Labour Party has been voting against the Deal for party political reasons rather than because they honestly oppose it, so in that sense Mrs May is right to blame MPs in the way she has.
Jeremy has been right in that respect.0 -
Morning PB,
Without a legal change we are now 8 days from departing the EU deal or no deal!
Everyone this way for the departure lounge!
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That's why today's trending petition is going to be the main discussion in parliament in the very near future. It's the only option parliament hasn't discussed yet so I suspect Bercow will insist on people voting for it and owning the result..oldpolitics said:
Which doesn't prevent No Deal unless a Revoker PM can command the confidence of the House, by next weekend.Sean_F said:
I think the only way of stopping Brexit is to pass a VONC.eek said:Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
Yep - but in May's mind that will be complete failure. I suspect to revoke the Tories need to remove her by Monday..Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
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The Greens. That is the last thing we need.Roger said:The two largest parties are led by pygmies. They seem to be leapfrogging each other to see who can be the most vile.
Get yourselves together Tiggers or Lib Dems or Greens bcause after this is over we're going to need you.0 -
I should have said that it was "self-perceived" of course.DavidL said:
Hammond has been stunningly ineffective as Chancellor both in economic terms and even more significantly in political terms. Economically, he has done nothing useful, he has simply kept a steady ship. He has not addressed the serious imbalances in our economy, he has not sought to defuse ticking time bombs like student debt, he has spent more money but got very little bang for his bucks.OblitusSumMe said:
I think Hammond has reconciled himself to his indispensability in the case of no deal, that he must stay to mitigate the worst effects.DavidL said:So who is going to resign today? Rudd is the most likely but what about the likes of Hammond? Do they hang on to see if May's reckless gamble works or abandon ship now?
Politically, he has been the weakest and least relevant Chancellor I can recall. Even Darling had more sway and influence and he was dealing with a true madman.
In short I am somewhat unpersuaded of his indispensability.0 -
I agree but the only way that can happen is if the large remain majority in the Commons are willing to throw off the shackles of both main party leaders, pass a VONC and then replace May with someone other than Corbyn willing to revoke. I honestly think that the Tiggers were an attempt to facilitate that but they have proven something of a damp squib, at least 100 MPs short of a critical mass.Sean_F said:
Ìf the WA is anathema to them, and they don't want No Deal, that is indeed what they must do.Jonathan said:
Ditch MayPhilip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a simple choice.
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Mr L,
"he perception is that in her inept, incompetent, mildly autistic way May has done her best to prevent no deal."
Exactly.0 -
Labour MPs won't be voting for May's Deal as I stated below - their constituents are happier with the other optionsRoyalBlue said:I still think the Deal makes sense, but short of Labour MPs having a change of heart this weekend after returning to their constituencies, I don’t see it happening.
I no longer feel any terror of No Deal. There will be bumps, but none of the worst fears will be realised and the Government will introduce emergency tax cuts to boost the economy. It will also make Brexit totally irreversible.0 -
We are heading for no deal and leaving the EU next Friday and I cannot see any way out of it. Sadly.0
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a revoke can costs two tricks IIRC.. an unwelcome outcomeOblitusSumMe said:
It's close as to whether the revoke petition becomes the most signed (on the official online platform) by 9am.AlastairMeeks said:So how’s that building of a consensus for Brexit going?
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Fair enough. It's too early to go Godwin but others in history who might have thought the same come readily to mind.OblitusSumMe said:
I should have said that it was "self-perceived" of course.DavidL said:
Hammond has been stunningly ineffective as Chancellor both in economic terms and even more significantly in political terms. Economically, he has done nothing useful, he has simply kept a steady ship. He has not addressed the serious imbalances in our economy, he has not sought to defuse ticking time bombs like student debt, he has spent more money but got very little bang for his bucks.OblitusSumMe said:
I think Hammond has reconciled himself to his indispensability in the case of no deal, that he must stay to mitigate the worst effects.DavidL said:So who is going to resign today? Rudd is the most likely but what about the likes of Hammond? Do they hang on to see if May's reckless gamble works or abandon ship now?
Politically, he has been the weakest and least relevant Chancellor I can recall. Even Darling had more sway and influence and he was dealing with a true madman.
In short I am somewhat unpersuaded of his indispensability.0 -
There isn't a ditch big enough.Jonathan said:
Ditch MayPhilip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a simple choice.
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When we get a Tardis and replace Cameron with a PM who doesn't fold the cards.TheScreamingEagles said:When are the EU going to realise we hold all the cards?
Doesn't matter if you held pocket Aces if you fold them.0 -
The idea that MPs are the ones who don't know what they want astounds me. At every turn this government has attempted to frustrate "the will of the people" (how I hate that phrase) ie their elected representatives. At every point the government, who do not have a majority and lost their majority partly on this stance on Brexit, has acted like toughies and demagogues, refusing to actually work with anyone on a deal that had even a whiff of compromise. Yes, Corbyn is a complete dork for walking out of a meeting that included Umana, but at least Corbyn's proposal for how to leave the EU could probably pass the house on a freeish vote and the EU. The same is not true of May's deal. She has failed to convince people of this deal in her rhetoric (she managed to get the EU to keep us in the SM without FoM, that should be Leaver Nirvana!) and in her politicking. She is useless, and only allowed to keep going because everyone else is even more useless. If we stay in the EU, I can see Tommy Robinson MEP in our future, and I don't really see us coming back from that. Once the likes of he have that sort of platform, we'll start going down the route of Poland, Hungary and Brazil.0
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The choice is not palatable for them. Corbyn or May, but that's where we are. I expect PM Corbyn would request a long extension, in return for Remainer support.oldpolitics said:
Which doesn't prevent No Deal unless a Revoker PM can command the confidence of the House, by next weekend.Sean_F said:
I think the only way of stopping Brexit is to pass a VONC.eek said:Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
Yep - but in May's mind that will be complete failure. I suspect to revoke the Tories need to remove her by Monday..Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
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Most Labour supporters are Remainers, and of those that are not, a lot would be No-Deal Leavers, so I'm not sure Opposition MPs have to take much blame. Some, such as Yvette Cooper, have done their darndest to steer the Government in a better direction.Jonathan said:
That’s not true. The fact people around May believe that is one of the reasons she is in so much trouble.AndyJS said:The Labour Party has been voting against the Deal for party political reasons rather than because they honestly oppose it, so in that sense Mrs May is right to blame MPs in the way she has.
One cannot be so generous in respect of the Labour Leadership, which has been weak, shifty, inconsistent and marginal throughout.0 -
MP's know what they don't want, not what they do want.148grss said:The idea that MPs are the ones who don't know what they want astounds me. At every turn this government has attempted to frustrate "the will of the people" (how I hate that phrase) ie their elected representatives. At every point the government, who do not have a majority and lost their majority partly on this stance on Brexit, has acted like toughies and demagogues, refusing to actually work with anyone on a deal that had even a whiff of compromise. Yes, Corbyn is a complete dork for walking out of a meeting that included Umana, but at least Corbyn's proposal for how to leave the EU could probably pass the house on a freeish vote and the EU. The same is not true of May's deal. She has failed to convince people of this deal in her rhetoric (she managed to get the EU to keep us in the SM without FoM, that should be Leaver Nirvana!) and in her politicking. She is useless, and only allowed to keep going because everyone else is even more useless. If we stay in the EU, I can see Tommy Robinson MEP in our future, and I don't really see us coming back from that. Once the likes of he have that sort of platform, we'll start going down the route of Poland, Hungary and Brazil.
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Unusually, I totally disagree. Chancellors in general are guilty of making far too many frequent small policy changes that create additional work for business, without being large enough to make much difference to outcomes. This is how we have ended up with the second longest tax code in the world, after India. Hammond’s decision to revert to annual budgets has been an excellent reform.DavidL said:
Hammond has been stunningly ineffective as Chancellor both in economic terms and even more significantly in political terms. Economically, he has done nothing useful, he has simply kept a steady ship. He has not addressed the serious imbalances in our economy, he has not sought to defuse ticking time bombs like student debt, he has spent more money but got very little bang for his bucks.OblitusSumMe said:
I think Hammond has reconciled himself to his indispensability in the case of no deal, that he must stay to mitigate the worst effects.DavidL said:So who is going to resign today? Rudd is the most likely but what about the likes of Hammond? Do they hang on to see if May's reckless gamble works or abandon ship now?
Politically, he has been the weakest and least relevant Chancellor I can recall. Even Darling had more sway and influence and he was dealing with a true madman.
In short I am somewhat unpersuaded of his indispensability.
That said, I have full confidence that he has a full suite of emergency measures ready to go for when we leave with no deal.0 -
Remarkably, it seems that the one group that will not get the blame is the EU27. Whatever happens now our politicians have ensured that they will own it. I am pretty sure that was not supposed to be the plan!0
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Emergency tax cuts have always been included as part of the long-term package of goals of Brexit.RoyalBlue said:I still think the Deal makes sense, but short of Labour MPs having a change of heart this weekend after returning to their constituencies, I don’t see it happening.
I no longer feel any terror of No Deal. There will be bumps, but none of the worst fears will be realised and the Government will introduce emergency tax cuts to boost the economy. It will also make Brexit totally irreversible.0 -
At the moment we're in seven spades redoubled with a void in the suit and partner has just put down Jxx.SquareRoot said:
a revoke can costs two tricks IIRC.. an unwelcome outcomeOblitusSumMe said:
It's close as to whether the revoke petition becomes the most signed (on the official online platform) by 9am.AlastairMeeks said:So how’s that building of a consensus for Brexit going?
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Do they have the practical means to do so ? Apparently revoke requires primary legislationRecidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
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Problem is it turns out we are playing Sevens....TheScreamingEagles said:When are the EU going to realise we hold all the cards?
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Why should I pay any attention to those who said No Deal was Project Fear and now say No Deal will be fine?Philip_Thompson said:
When we get a Tardis and replace Cameron with a PM who doesn't fold the cards.TheScreamingEagles said:When are the EU going to realise we hold all the cards?
Doesn't matter if you held pocket Aces if you fold them.0 -
I think most MPs would be more than happy to vote for a soft Brexit; something similar to what the Swiss have. They'd happily vote for a CU. I think most MPs want to confirm the spirit of the referendum; a close leave victory that was won on the basis of arguments along the lines of "a deal will be easy", "we don't have to leave the SM or CU", "we could just join the EEA" etc. Those ideas were never considered by this government.Sean_F said:
MP's know what they don't want, not what they do want.148grss said:The idea that MPs are the ones who don't know what they want astounds me. At every turn this government has attempted to frustrate "the will of the people" (how I hate that phrase) ie their elected representatives. At every point the government, who do not have a majority and lost their majority partly on this stance on Brexit, has acted like toughies and demagogues, refusing to actually work with anyone on a deal that had even a whiff of compromise. Yes, Corbyn is a complete dork for walking out of a meeting that included Umana, but at least Corbyn's proposal for how to leave the EU could probably pass the house on a freeish vote and the EU. The same is not true of May's deal. She has failed to convince people of this deal in her rhetoric (she managed to get the EU to keep us in the SM without FoM, that should be Leaver Nirvana!) and in her politicking. She is useless, and only allowed to keep going because everyone else is even more useless. If we stay in the EU, I can see Tommy Robinson MEP in our future, and I don't really see us coming back from that. Once the likes of he have that sort of platform, we'll start going down the route of Poland, Hungary and Brazil.
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She gets away with it because Corbyn storms out of a meeting' because he doesn't like Ummuna.Jonathan said:
That’s not true. The fact people around May believe that is one of the reasons she is in so much trouble.AndyJS said:The Labour Party has been voting against the Deal for party political reasons rather than because they honestly oppose it, so in that sense Mrs May is right to blame MPs in the way she has.
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I said in December that the ERG had played a blinder with the letters. Tory remainers were too dumb to realise that they needed to act there and then.0
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I cannot see any petition being debated in the HOC before next fridayeek said:So the petition has reached 500,000 so will need to be debated in Parliament. I wonder if that will be today, tomorrow or Monday as Bercow could prioritise it above everything else.
And that gives everyone a way out - put revoke to a vote and see who actually votes against.
The HOC is going to be overwhelmed next week with various tactics and even indicative votes but if MV3 falls, as is more than possible, we must be heading out on a no deal. No deal is default and the only immediate way of stopping it is MV3
The EU are suggesting they will call a crisis meeting next thursday and that will be the 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed moment'
I have no confidence in our warring mps resolving anything until they have no choice. That arrives next friday0 -
GRAYLING: "Snap."TOPPING said:
At the moment we're in seven spades redoubled with a void in the suit and partner has just put down Jxx.SquareRoot said:
a revoke can costs two tricks IIRC.. an unwelcome outcomeOblitusSumMe said:
It's close as to whether the revoke petition becomes the most signed (on the official online platform) by 9am.AlastairMeeks said:So how’s that building of a consensus for Brexit going?
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Given the economy will be collapsing, Sturgeon pushing indyref2, Sinn Fein demanding a border poll etc within weeks of No Deal there will be little time for a blame game as the country will be in chaos.
There does however remain a majority in the Commons for a SM and Customs Union BINO over EUref2, No Deal or the Deal, even if it takes a minority Corbyn Government to get there propped up by the SNP that remains the likely long term shape of Brexit0 -
Labour MPs go home each weekend to CLPs packed full of members passionately opposed to Brexit and with wide powers of deselection. May needs to give them very good reasons to support her deal. She has failed utterly. Last night was the icing on the cake.eek said:FPT
If you think your typical Labour MP is going to abstain you've got another coming.FF43 said:
According to her minders, who don't seem to be doing a good job of controlling her, this was supposedly a pitch to Labour MPs to get on with the job of approving her policy. Don't see it working at that level. Or any level really.rottenborough said:
If Labour MPs do abstain enough to pass the deal, it will be because they felt trapped by an incompetent and dishonest PM, much as many of her own MPs will feel. It will store up resentment for the future negotiations where real hard decisions need to be made.
Labour Leave seat MPs can still vote against as their constituents are (mainly) happy with No Deal. Labour Remain MPs will vote against as their constituents want revoke.
Put bluntly May could present her deal 1,000 times it won't make any difference.
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That is correct. It is also commonly followed by a punch in the gob.SquareRoot said:
a revoke can costs two tricks IIRC.. an unwelcome outcomeOblitusSumMe said:
It's close as to whether the revoke petition becomes the most signed (on the official online platform) by 9am.AlastairMeeks said:So how’s that building of a consensus for Brexit going?
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Unfortunately it does not stop the default position of no deal.Sean_F said:
I think the only way of stopping Brexit is to pass a VONC.eek said:Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
Yep - but in May's mind that will be complete failure. I suspect to revoke the Tories need to remove her by Monday..Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
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Whilst I agree that many Chancellors over complicate things in unproductive ways I think that there is a difference between doing that and setting big picture targets for the economy. As an example consumption and personal borrowing are dangerously high sucking in excess imports. There is a trade off between attacking consumption and growth or course but I think that the wiser course would have been to encourage more investment, discourage consumption and take active steps to encourage import substitution.RoyalBlue said:
Unusually, I totally disagree. Chancellors in general are guilty of making far too many frequent small policy changes that create additional work for business, without being large enough to make much difference to outcomes. This is how we have ended up with the second longest tax code in the world, after India. Hammond’s decision to revert to annual budgets has been an excellent reform.DavidL said:
Hammond has been stunningly ineffective as Chancellor both in economic terms and even more significantly in political terms. Economically, he has done nothing useful, he has simply kept a steady ship. He has not addressed the serious imbalances in our economy, he has not sought to defuse ticking time bombs like student debt, he has spent more money but got very little bang for his bucks.OblitusSumMe said:
I think Hammond has reconciled himself to his indispensability in the case of no deal, that he must stay to mitigate the worst effects.DavidL said:So who is going to resign today? Rudd is the most likely but what about the likes of Hammond? Do they hang on to see if May's reckless gamble works or abandon ship now?
Politically, he has been the weakest and least relevant Chancellor I can recall. Even Darling had more sway and influence and he was dealing with a true madman.
In short I am somewhat unpersuaded of his indispensability.
That said, I have full confidence that he has a full suite of emergency measures ready to go for when we leave with no deal.0 -
Yes, I think Cameron would have followed this, and the both the remain and leave campaigns in the referendum were coloured by his relaxed confidence of this and its inevitability. May, with her background in the Home Office and preoccupation with immigration, was never going to follow such a course. In a way, Cameron's breezy and clubbable confidence collided with May's obsessive populism.148grss said:
I think most MPs would be more than happy to vote for a soft Brexit; something similar to what the Swiss have. They'd happily vote for a CU. I think most MPs want to confirm the spirit of the referendum; a close leave victory that was won on the basis of arguments along the lines of "a deal will be easy", "we don't have to leave the SM or CU", "we could just join the EEA" etc. Those ideas were never considered by this government.Sean_F said:
MP's know what they don't want, not what they do want.148grss said:The idea that MPs are the ones who don't know what they want astounds me. At every turn this government has attempted to frustrate "the will of the people" (how I hate that phrase) ie their elected representatives. At every point the government, who do not have a majority and lost their majority partly on this stance on Brexit, has acted like toughies and demagogues, refusing to actually work with anyone on a deal that had even a whiff of compromise. Yes, Corbyn is a complete dork for walking out of a meeting that included Umana, but at least Corbyn's proposal for how to leave the EU could probably pass the house on a freeish vote and the EU. The same is not true of May's deal. She has failed to convince people of this deal in her rhetoric (she managed to get the EU to keep us in the SM without FoM, that should be Leaver Nirvana!) and in her politicking. She is useless, and only allowed to keep going because everyone else is even more useless. If we stay in the EU, I can see Tommy Robinson MEP in our future, and I don't really see us coming back from that. Once the likes of he have that sort of platform, we'll start going down the route of Poland, Hungary and Brazil.
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That was the solution in January. The solution now is revoke.HYUFD said:Given the economy will be collapsing, Sturgeon pushing indyref2, Sinn Fein demanding a border poll etc within weeks of No Deal there will be little time for a blame game as the country will be in chaos.
There does however remain a majority in the Commons for a SM and Customs Union BINO over EUref2, No Deal or the Deal, even if it takes a minority Corbyn Government to get there propped up by the SNP that remains the likely long term shape of Brexit0 -
The story of the past few months is simple. May chose brinkmanship to force her deal through. At part of that approach, she denied oxygen to anything that deviated from her deal. She set up the foundations of the current crisis by delaying and framing a false binary choice.Peter_the_Punter said:
Most Labour supporters are Remainers, and of those that are not, a lot would be No-Deal Leavers, so I'm not sure Opposition MPs have to take much blame. Some, such as Yvette Cooper, have done their darndest to steer the Government in a better direction.Jonathan said:
That’s not true. The fact people around May believe that is one of the reasons she is in so much trouble.AndyJS said:The Labour Party has been voting against the Deal for party political reasons rather than because they honestly oppose it, so in that sense Mrs May is right to blame MPs in the way she has.
One cannot be so generous in respect of the Labour Leadership, which has been weak, shifty, inconsistent and marginal throughout.
The trouble was at the same time she actively antagonised the people she needs to support her and has did nothing to fix the flaws in her approach. There is nothing in her deal to win over Labour Leavers or soft Remainers. If anything there is an off putting tone reminiscent of her days in the home office.
Faced with the failure of her brinkmanship, she did not adapt she dug in. Nothing changed. She and her supporters now want others to rescue her. The cavalry is not coming.
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The EU is not going to fold, we export more to them than they do to us, they will just use a collapsing UK 'pour encouraged led autres' and as a warning to any other nations that try and stray from the line, see Greece where ultimately it was Greece that caved on austerity, not the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
When we get a Tardis and replace Cameron with a PM who doesn't fold the cards.TheScreamingEagles said:When are the EU going to realise we hold all the cards?
Doesn't matter if you held pocket Aces if you fold them.0 -
This is all going to come down to public opinion. When this blows up in everyone's face as it inevitably will I doubt many will see the ERG as winnerstlg86 said:I said in December that the ERG had played a blinder with the letters. Tory remainers were too dumb to realise that they needed to act there and then.
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I agree but the blame lies with the mps themselves in the endAlastairMeeks said:There’s plenty of scope for blame all around. The Prime Minister has to take prime responsibility.
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I think this is the most interesting story in all of this. The referendum and its aftermath looks like the failure of representative democracy.Sean_F said:
MP's know what they don't want, not what they do want.148grss said:The idea that MPs are the ones who don't know what they want astounds me. At every turn this government has attempted to frustrate "the will of the people" (how I hate that phrase) ie their elected representatives. At every point the government, who do not have a majority and lost their majority partly on this stance on Brexit, has acted like toughies and demagogues, refusing to actually work with anyone on a deal that had even a whiff of compromise. Yes, Corbyn is a complete dork for walking out of a meeting that included Umana, but at least Corbyn's proposal for how to leave the EU could probably pass the house on a freeish vote and the EU. The same is not true of May's deal. She has failed to convince people of this deal in her rhetoric (she managed to get the EU to keep us in the SM without FoM, that should be Leaver Nirvana!) and in her politicking. She is useless, and only allowed to keep going because everyone else is even more useless. If we stay in the EU, I can see Tommy Robinson MEP in our future, and I don't really see us coming back from that. Once the likes of he have that sort of platform, we'll start going down the route of Poland, Hungary and Brazil.
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As I suggested a few days ago, there is and will be loads of culpa but fuck all mea.
Will anyone be willing to say I/we have really screwed up by voting for/supporting/ wishing for X? Of course I can see the problem that if you do put your head above the parapet of regret you're immediately accused of being a liar.0 -
This is what happens when you use the blackwood convention. It always ends in tears.TOPPING said:
At the moment we're in seven spades redoubled with a void in the suit and partner has just put down Jxx.SquareRoot said:
a revoke can costs two tricks IIRC.. an unwelcome outcomeOblitusSumMe said:
It's close as to whether the revoke petition becomes the most signed (on the official online platform) by 9am.AlastairMeeks said:So how’s that building of a consensus for Brexit going?
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Next friday, weekend is too late. It is madnessoldpolitics said:
Which doesn't prevent No Deal unless a Revoker PM can command the confidence of the House, by next weekend.Sean_F said:
I think the only way of stopping Brexit is to pass a VONC.eek said:Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
Yep - but in May's mind that will be complete failure. I suspect to revoke the Tories need to remove her by Monday..Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
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In fact I think Corbyn has got away with it a bit. In normal circumstances such behavior would have exposed him to widespread national ridicule, but he was upstaged by May's extraordinary performance in front of the lectern in Downing Street.Roger said:
She gets away with it because Corbyn storms out of a meeting' because he doesn't like Ummuna.Jonathan said:
That’s not true. The fact people around May believe that is one of the reasons she is in so much trouble.AndyJS said:The Labour Party has been voting against the Deal for party political reasons rather than because they honestly oppose it, so in that sense Mrs May is right to blame MPs in the way she has.
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Looks that way today and a nice thought, but I think your conclusion is premature.SouthamObserver said:Remarkably, it seems that the one group that will not get the blame is the EU27. Whatever happens now our politicians have ensured that they will own it. I am pretty sure that was not supposed to be the plan!
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No, but I expect the EU would give some breathing space to the new PMBig_G_NorthWales said:
Unfortunately it does not stop the default position of no deal.Sean_F said:
I think the only way of stopping Brexit is to pass a VONC.eek said:Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
Yep - but in May's mind that will be complete failure. I suspect to revoke the Tories need to remove her by Monday..Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
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I’ve spent most of the last three years giving helpful advice to Leavers and being roundly abused for the most part. It’s a thankless task.Peter_the_Punter said:
But you'll have to accept your share, Alastair.AlastairMeeks said:There’s plenty of scope for blame all around. The Prime Minister has to take prime responsibility.
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Isn't there a validation process that needs to be carried out to make sure they are real people ?eek said:So the petition has reached 500,000 so will need to be debated in Parliament. I wonder if that will be today, tomorrow or Monday as Bercow could prioritise it above everything else.
And that gives everyone a way out - put revoke to a vote and see who actually votes against.0 -
The buck stops with May. If her brinkmanship wins she will certainly claim a triumph, she must take the flip side.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I agree but the blame lies with the mps themselves in the endAlastairMeeks said:There’s plenty of scope for blame all around. The Prime Minister has to take prime responsibility.
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I think many on here are happy for party politics to take precedence. Perhaps you're thinking too deeply.
From the outside, it's much simpler. The PM, a Remainer thrust into the role of negotiating Brexit, comes back with a deal from the EU. It's not great, but all there is on offer. The MPs who had no intention of honouring their promises, have been voting against everything to stop progress.
The PM, in a valedictory speech, tells the truth, and the MPs react like the spoilt, lying children they are. She may be incompetent (she is), not the brightest (but not in Jezza's class as dumb), but she's straightforward and honest for once.
Like slugs sprinkled with salt, the MPs thrash around, spitting defiance. At the end, she has exposed their failings and they don't like it. Schadenfreude with a vengeance.0 -
Any option requires the passing of the WA, which MP's think is terrible.148grss said:
I think most MPs would be more than happy to vote for a soft Brexit; something similar to what the Swiss have. They'd happily vote for a CU. I think most MPs want to confirm the spirit of the referendum; a close leave victory that was won on the basis of arguments along the lines of "a deal will be easy", "we don't have to leave the SM or CU", "we could just join the EEA" etc. Those ideas were never considered by this government.Sean_F said:
MP's know what they don't want, not what they do want.148grss said:The idea that MPs are the ones who don't know what they want astounds me. At every turn this government has attempted to frustrate "the will of the people" (how I hate that phrase) ie their elected representatives. At every point the government, who do not have a majority and lost their majority partly on this stance on Brexit, has acted like toughies and demagogues, refusing to actually work with anyone on a deal that had even a whiff of compromise. Yes, Corbyn is a complete dork for walking out of a meeting that included Umana, but at least Corbyn's proposal for how to leave the EU could probably pass the house on a freeish vote and the EU. The same is not true of May's deal. She has failed to convince people of this deal in her rhetoric (she managed to get the EU to keep us in the SM without FoM, that should be Leaver Nirvana!) and in her politicking. She is useless, and only allowed to keep going because everyone else is even more useless. If we stay in the EU, I can see Tommy Robinson MEP in our future, and I don't really see us coming back from that. Once the likes of he have that sort of platform, we'll start going down the route of Poland, Hungary and Brazil.
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Yep - but in May's mind that will be complete failure. I suspect to revoke the Tories need to remove her by Monday..Recidivist said:
The most straight forward way to prevent no deal is to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:If MPs want to prevent no deal they have a skme choice.
I think the only way of stopping Brexit is to pass a VONC.
Which doesn't prevent No Deal unless a Revoker PM can command the confidence of the House, by next weekend.
That's why today's trending petition is going to be the main discussion in parliament in the very near future. It's the only option parliament hasn't discussed yet so I suspect Bercow will insist on people voting for it and owning the result..
Bercow does not have that much power0 -
Emergency tax cuts will do the square foot of did all as the £ and FTSE collapse, banks nd manufacturers start to move to the continent and the Union risks breaking up. It would take us becoming Singapore to make a real difference and there is little appetite amongst voters for that.RoyalBlue said:I still think the Deal makes sense, but short of Labour MPs having a change of heart this weekend after returning to their constituencies, I don’t see it happening.
I no longer feel any terror of No Deal. There will be bumps, but none of the worst fears will be realised and the Government will introduce emergency tax cuts to boost the economy. It will also make Brexit totally irreversible.
All No Deal will likely lead to is SM and Customs Union BINO or we rejoin the EU with the Euro and Schengen never to squeak again0 -
With 500,000 people the odds of 100,000 not being real is minimal especially given it's going to be 1million by close of play today.asjohnstone said:
Isn't there a validation process that needs to be carried out to make sure they are real people ?eek said:So the petition has reached 500,000 so will need to be debated in Parliament. I wonder if that will be today, tomorrow or Monday as Bercow could prioritise it above everything else.
And that gives everyone a way out - put revoke to a vote and see who actually votes against.0 -
I think this is going to lead to a no deal crash out, but this has been on the cards for a long time, and many people on here have been saying this for years. IE Fox, TSE
The trouble is the context of the referendum + the make up of parliament has meant that the UK doesn't have the capacity or ability to negotiate effectively. So, the two alternatives are crashing out, or submitting to an unfavourable agreement.0 -
At the current rate of signups it’ll be 1m by lunchtime.eek said:
With 500,000 people the odds of 100,000 not being real is minimal especially given it's going to be 1million by close of play today.asjohnstone said:
Isn't there a validation process that needs to be carried out to make sure they are real people ?eek said:So the petition has reached 500,000 so will need to be debated in Parliament. I wonder if that will be today, tomorrow or Monday as Bercow could prioritise it above everything else.
And that gives everyone a way out - put revoke to a vote and see who actually votes against.0 -
It's a shame we haven't got an PB archive from the weeks before Black Wednesday. I think it would look a lot like this.
PS Hunt on R4 Today just now is definitely after the top job.0 -
With the speech last night, the PM proclaiming to the nation that she is not in control and hasn't been for some time may get sympathy, but I'm not sure that will translate into support in the future.AndyJS said:The Labour Party has been voting against the Deal for party political reasons rather than because they honestly oppose it, so in that sense Mrs May is right to blame MPs in the way she has.
People sympathised with Major.0 -
And this is productive how?CD13 said:I think many on here are happy for party politics to take precedence. Perhaps you're thinking too deeply.
From the outside, it's much simpler. The PM, a Remainer thrust into the role of negotiating Brexit, comes back with a deal from the EU. It's not great, but all there is on offer. The MPs who had no intention of honouring their promises, have been voting against everything to stop progress.
The PM, in a valedictory speech, tells the truth, and the MPs react like the spoilt, lying children they are. She may be incompetent (she is), not the brightest (but not in Jezza's class as dumb), but she's straightforward and honest for once.
Like slugs sprinkled with salt, the MPs thrash around, spitting defiance. At the end, she has exposed their failings and they don't like it. Schadenfreude with a vengeance.0 -
Mr. Under, welcome to PB.
Utterly off-topic, but some excellent news might be a welcome distraction:
https://twitter.com/BillandTed3/status/11084053448022425600 -
No Deal will not kill the Tories though, the majority of Tory voters and Leavers back No Deal over Remain. Indeed No Deal will likely kill UKIP beyond a few anti Islam Tommy Robinson types as they have no purpose as they have achieved everything they wanted, it is revoke which could kill the Tories as then UKIP or Farage's new Brexit Party really would clean up, unless the Tories replaced May with a hardline Leaver like Boris, Raab or McVey or Pateledmundintokyo said:No Deal will kill the Tories. Whoever takes the grumpy-right-populist spot that UKIP used to fill will clean up.
The problem isn't just the blame for letting No Deal happen, which will *mostly* attach to them. It's also for all the specific things that will go wrong that could theoretically have been planned for. There's no way for a government to do something like this, even with good planning and excellent people, and come out of it looking competent. And this government doesn't have good planning and excellent people, to put it mildly.
One thing will unite the nation, from left to right, brexit to remain: The government bollocksed up the implementation.0 -
I'm slightly surprised there weren't cabinet resignations yesterday, given that May's latest move requesting the extension from the EU was taken without even the pretence of cabinet agreement.DavidL said:So who is going to resign today? Rudd is the most likely but what about the likes of Hammond? Do they hang on to see if May's reckless gamble works or abandon ship now?...
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Surely Brexit proves that time travel is impossible?Philip_Thompson said:
When we get a Tardis and replace Cameron with a PM who doesn't fold the cards.TheScreamingEagles said:When are the EU going to realise we hold all the cards?
Doesn't matter if you held pocket Aces if you fold them.0 -
At the moment most people have not been impacted. If that changes, the mood will change. It could get rather brutal for the government at that point.Andy_Cooke said:
With the speech last night, the PM proclaiming to the nation that she is not in control and hasn't been for some time may get sympathy, but I'm not sure that will translate into support in the future.AndyJS said:The Labour Party has been voting against the Deal for party political reasons rather than because they honestly oppose it, so in that sense Mrs May is right to blame MPs in the way she has.
People sympathised with Major.0 -
I really think that a statue is in order. Maybe a virtual one, somewhere on the internet where people can pay homage.AlastairMeeks said:
I’ve spent most of the last three years giving helpful advice to Leavers and being roundly abused for the most part. It’s a thankless task.Peter_the_Punter said:
But you'll have to accept your share, Alastair.AlastairMeeks said:There’s plenty of scope for blame all around. The Prime Minister has to take prime responsibility.
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It depends whether one's leadership ambitions are enhanced by staying or resigning.Nigelb said:
I'm slightly surprised there weren't cabinet resignations yesterday, given that May's latest move requesting the extension from the EU was taken without even the pretence of cabinet agreement.DavidL said:So who is going to resign today? Rudd is the most likely but what about the likes of Hammond? Do they hang on to see if May's reckless gamble works or abandon ship now?...
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If we go No Deal it won't be if it will be when. The only question really is where things fall about that causes that when..Jonathan said:
At the moment most people have not been impacted. If that changes, the mood will change. It could get rather brutal for the government at that point.Andy_Cooke said:
With the speech last night, the PM proclaiming to the nation that she is not in control and hasn't been for some time may get sympathy, but I'm not sure that will translate into support in the future.AndyJS said:The Labour Party has been voting against the Deal for party political reasons rather than because they honestly oppose it, so in that sense Mrs May is right to blame MPs in the way she has.
People sympathised with Major.0
