politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bercow’s ruling adds to the Brexit uncertainty

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close

In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.

What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke

Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?

glw said:

HYUFD said:

What is a general election going to achieve?

Right now the best thing that could happen is not revocation, another referendum, or a redundant general election, but a rogue asteroid; so that a new Parliament has to be formed from scratch.

Who is the designated survivor?

Tell me it isn't Grayling.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

Surely - since Parliament has voted against the WA and voted against a no deal exit - they must now vote on whether:-

(a) to revoke Article 50; or
(b) have a referendum, which are the only options left that relate specifically to Brexit.

Then depending on which gets the most votes in favour May acts on that. The EU 27 would agree to an extension for a referendum I think. They might be relieved if we revoke though I wouldn't blame them if their initial reaction if we revoked was to go "Oh, fuck. No!"

She is however too stubborn, stupid and unimaginative and listens to no-one sensible and the Tory party is such a disgrace that I imagine she will try for some idiotic nonsense (like proroguing or some such arcane idiocy). Which won't work and we end up crashing out with not all of the relevant necessary legislation in place and so a legal mess for years to come. So lawyers - if no-one else - will be pleased.

The Tories are making Corbyn as PM more and more likely (in itself a bad enough prospect for anyone sane) but, even worse, they are making the prospect of him being in power seem like a better alternative than the shower of incompetent shits (with apologies to the decent Tories on this board) the current Tory party has turned into. Some of the stupider Tories seem to think that No Deal will vindicate them whereas it will annihilate them and seriously risks ruining the country.

And once May has acted on what Parliament tells her and been humiliated at the EU summit, she needs to go. Though when I think of who might succeed her I wobble even on that.

Didn't Parliament vote against a referendum last week?

Yes and that is where Bercow's ruling causes problems as it has already been voted down

IIUC that was an amendment to tack on the referendum plan to the request for an extension. That seems materially different from what Kyle-Wilson were planning which is the MV, with "but only if confirmed by a referendum" added.

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close

In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.

What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke

Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?

It is certainly not going to be manageable during a snap general election, which still will not solve the fact Parliament has to come to a decision on Brexit and sooner rather than later

WhisperingOracle said:

rottenborough said:

The real problem comes when Bercow has to decide next week whether MV3 (delayed) is substantially different.

Just what I was thinking. The pressure on him is going to be absolutely enormous, if so, but does a delay inside the deal really mean change in the "substantive deal" ? I don't know what the legal precedents are here.

Exactly. I bet Erskin May leaves plenty of wiggle room for the judgment of the Speaker.

https://twitter.com/ryansabey/status/1107773603301470209

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close

In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.

What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke

Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?

It is certainly not going to be manageable during a snap general election, which still will not solve the fact Parliament has to come to a decision on Brexit and sooner rather than later

It might be if you deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.

Whereas your idea is what ? Do nothing and keep claiming everything is going to plan ?

edmundintokyo said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

Surely - since Parliament has voted against the WA and voted against a no deal exit - they must now vote on whether:-

(a) to revoke Article 50; or
(b) have a referendum, which are the only options left that relate specifically to Brexit.

Then depending on which gets the most votes in favour May acts on that. The EU 27 would agree to an extension for a referendum I think. They might be relieved if we revoke though I wouldn't blame them if their initial reaction if we revoked was to go "Oh, fuck. No!"

She is however too stubborn, stupid and unimaginative and listens to no-one sensible and the Tory party is such a disgrace that I imagine she will try for some idiotic nonsense (like proroguing or some such arcane idiocy). Which won't work and we end up crashing out with not all of the relevant necessary legislation in place and so a legal mess for years to come. So lawyers - if no-one else - will be pleased.

The Tories are making Corbyn as PM more and more likely (in itself a bad enough prospect for anyone sane) but, even worse, they are making the prospect of him being in power seem like a better alternative than the shower of incompetent shits (with apologies to the decent Tories on this board) the current Tory party has turned into. Some of the stupider Tories seem to think that No Deal will vindicate them whereas it will annihilate them and seriously risks ruining the country.

And once May has acted on what Parliament tells her and been humiliated at the EU summit, she needs to go. Though when I think of who might succeed her I wobble even on that.

Didn't Parliament vote against a referendum last week?

Yes and that is where Bercow's ruling causes problems as it has already been voted down

IIUC that was an amendment to tack on the referendum plan to the request for an extension. That seems materially different from what Kyle-Wilson were planning which is the MV, with "but only if confirmed by a referendum" added.

But if MV3 is not coming back neither are amendments

Bercow could be the cause of no deal brexit by his action today

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close

In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.

What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke

Why have the just ruled out No Deal?

Parliament has already ruled out No Deal, the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO and EUref2.

Every single one of them except revoke has already been voted against.

They twice voted to rule out No Deal under all circumstances, which leaves them to choose from the Deal, CU and/or SM, EUref2 or revoke

They also twice voted to rule out the Deal, they've also voted repeatedly [as you yourself have pointed out] against the CU and/or SM, they've also voted [just the once AFAIK] against EUref2.

Which just leaves revoke. But they'd vote against that too.

brokenwheel said:

another_richard said:

brokenwheel said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close

In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.

What GE outcome would change anything? And is that outcome likely?

The Conservatives need to deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.

Until they do that there is no chance of May's deal passing.

What the outcome of a GE would be I don't know but the current situation clearly is not working.

If you deselect the ERG you can kiss goodbye to the Tory Party so I fail to see how that solves anything.

In which case the ERG will have to deselect the rest of the Conservative party - except they already tried that and failed.

The Conservative party has to decide what it stands for one way or another.

But its certainly not going to be able to function as a government until it does that.

And what happens when there is no functioning government ?

Sean_F said:

rottenborough said:

The real problem comes when Bercow has to decide next week whether MV3 (delayed) is substantially different.

If there is a majority for MV3, it will pass, as MP's can amend standing orders.

Can you explain? What does that mean?

glw said:

HYUFD said:

What is a general election going to achieve?

Right now the best thing that could happen is not revocation, another referendum, or a redundant general election, but a rogue asteroid; so that a new Parliament has to be formed from scratch.

God's trying his best, aim a little off;

https://twitter.com/BBCScienceNews/status/1107509490549690369

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close

In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.

What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke

Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?

It is certainly not going to be manageable during a snap general election, which still will not solve the fact Parliament has to come to a decision on Brexit and sooner rather than later

It might be if you deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.

Whereas your idea is what ? Do nothing and keep claiming everything is going to plan ?

Given the current mood of Tory Associations I would expect more ERG candidates to be selected not less.

My idea is to get the Commons to finally vote on all the alternative Brexit positions having ruled out No Deal and then put that to the EU when requesting the extension

rottenborough said:

Sean_F said:

rottenborough said:

The real problem comes when Bercow has to decide next week whether MV3 (delayed) is substantially different.

If there is a majority for MV3, it will pass, as MP's can amend standing orders.

Can you explain? What does that mean?

Mps can vote to overrule standing orders and allow a vote on MV3

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close

In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.

What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke

Why have the just ruled out No Deal?

Parliament has already ruled out No Deal, the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO and EUref2.

Every single one of them except revoke has already been voted against.

They twice voted to rule out No Deal under all circumstances, which leaves them to choose from the Deal, CU and/or SM, EUref2 or revoke

They also twice voted to rule out the Deal, they've also voted repeatedly [as you yourself have pointed out against the CU and/or SM, they've also voted [just the once AFAIK] against EUref2.

Which just leaves revoke. But they'd vote against that too.

They voted last year against the CU by just 6 votes, Brexit with permanent CU remains the likeliest outcome if all else fails

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Sean_F said:

rottenborough said:

The real problem comes when Bercow has to decide next week whether MV3 (delayed) is substantially different.

If there is a majority for MV3, it will pass, as MP's can amend standing orders.

Can you explain? What does that mean?

Mps can vote to overrule standing orders and allow a vote on MV3

They would be voting to overturn the convention then?

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1107778610730020864

rottenborough said:

Sean_F said:

rottenborough said:

The real problem comes when Bercow has to decide next week whether MV3 (delayed) is substantially different.

If there is a majority for MV3, it will pass, as MP's can amend standing orders.

Can you explain? What does that mean?

It means they can first vote that there should be a vote on MV3, before then voting on the main motion.

Danny565 said:

Andrea Jenkyns is seriously unimpressive.

On the contrary, she is proving to be one of the best deep cover Remain sleepers ever

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close

In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.

What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke

Why have the just ruled out No Deal?

Parliament has already ruled out No Deal, the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO and EUref2.

Every single one of them except revoke has already been voted against.

They twice voted to rule out No Deal under all circumstances, which leaves them to choose from the Deal, CU and/or SM, EUref2 or revoke

They also twice voted to rule out the Deal, they've also voted repeatedly [as you yourself have pointed out against the CU and/or SM, they've also voted [just the once AFAIK] against EUref2.

Which just leaves revoke. But they'd vote against that too.

They voted last year against the CU by just 6 votes, Brexit with permanent CU remains the likeliest outcome if all else fails

Yes they voted against it. If we're playing a game of anything voted against can't be repeated then that's already gone.

If Parliament can change its mind then all options remain.

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Sean_F said:

rottenborough said:

The real problem comes when Bercow has to decide next week whether MV3 (delayed) is substantially different.

If there is a majority for MV3, it will pass, as MP's can amend standing orders.

Can you explain? What does that mean?

Mps can vote to overrule standing orders and allow a vote on MV3

They would be voting to overturn the convention then?

Yes - Bercow confirmed it

another_richard said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Cyclefree said:

I love the way the news keeps referring to May's "strategy". The one thing May has never had since the moment she became PM has been a strategy.

If the past few years of UK politics had been a work of fiction it would have been criticised for being unrealistic on many points, not least of which being the epic ineptitude of the Prime Minister.

Not forgetting the mystery of how someone with no people skills and no leadership skills became PM.

The candidate nobody hated enough to stop. Then they found out and wished they had.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1107778610730020864

What are the consequences of overturning the convention? It is there for a reason. Maybe some MPs wont want to do that.

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

And what happens when there is no functioning government ?

The rest of us get on with our lives as normal?

There's something to be said for that.



But I'm not sure how medium term tenable it is.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1107778610730020864

"If" the government has a majority. "If" is doing a lot of work there.

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

Labour front bench back out of Newsnight discussion of today's events.

Great! They would have sent Budgon or the other clueless cretin who always embarrasses himself and the party talking utter crap about our "position"

By "the other clueless cretin who always embarrasses himself" you can, of course, only mean Barry Gardiner.

brokenwheel said:

another_richard said:

brokenwheel said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close

In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.

What GE outcome would change anything? And is that outcome likely?

The Conservatives need to deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.

Until they do that there is no chance of May's deal passing.

What the outcome of a GE would be I don't know but the current situation clearly is not working.

If you deselect the ERG you can kiss goodbye to the Tory Party so I fail to see how that solves anything.

To be fair, that would solve a lot of things.

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close

In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.

What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke

Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?

It is certainly not going to be manageable during a snap general election, which still will not solve the fact Parliament has to come to a decision on Brexit and sooner rather than later

It might be if you deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.

Whereas your idea is what ? Do nothing and keep claiming everything is going to plan ?

Given the current mood of Tory Associations I would expect more ERG candidates to be selected not less.

My idea is to get the Commons to finally vote on all the alternative Brexit positions having ruled out No Deal and then put that to the EU when requesting the extension

So you'd get some wishy-washy BINO to be approved by referendum after extra payments to the EU.

You think that Tory Associations would approve of that in their current mood ?

Tory Associations are largely irrelevant at the moment, most Tory MPs have already voted for the Deal, then to keep No Deal on the table and not to extend Article 50, the Commons though has voted against the Deal and to take No Deal off the table and to extend Article 50.

It is the Commons which will decide as a whole what Brexit looks like, not just Tory MPs

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1107778610730020864

LOL

If its that easy then we really do have a Parliament of Posturers.

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1107778610730020864

What are the consequences of overturning the convention? It is there for a reason. Maybe some MPs wont want to do that.

It means they can disapply it in the future.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1107778610730020864

What are the consequences of overturning the convention? It is there for a reason. Maybe some MPs wont want to do that.

There are no consequences if the mps majority vote to disregard standing orders. Bercow was challenged on this in a point of order and affirmed MV3 can be brought back if there is a majority to do so. He said it is a HOC decision

So, there has been a massive fuss, driven partly by media and back bench MPs mouthing off, about absolutely nothing.

If there are enough MPs who want MV3, then there will be enough MPs who want standing orders suspended.

another_richard said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1107778610730020864

LOL

If its that easy then we really do have a Parliament of Posturers.

Deals always get reached at 5 minutes to midnight.

another_richard said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1107778610730020864

LOL

If its that easy then we really do have a Parliament of Posturers.

Falls down on 1 frankly. Never mind the rest.

Way, way to far off from No Deal exit day for the DUP to come on board yet.

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close

In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.

What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke

Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?

It is certainly not going to be manageable during a snap general election, which still will not solve the fact Parliament has to come to a decision on Brexit and sooner rather than later

It might be if you deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.

Whereas your idea is what ? Do nothing and keep claiming everything is going to plan ?

Given the current mood of Tory Associations I would expect more ERG candidates to be selected not less.

My idea is to get the Commons to finally vote on all the alternative Brexit positions having ruled out No Deal and then put that to the EU when requesting the extension

So you'd get some wishy-washy BINO to be approved by referendum after extra payments to the EU.

You think that Tory Associations would approve of that in their current mood ?

Tory Associations are largely irrelevant at the moment, most Tory MPs have already voted for the Deal, then to keep No Deal on the table and not to extend Article 50, the Commons though has voted against the Deal and to take No Deal off the table and to extend Article 50.

It is the Commons which will decide as a whole what Brexit looks like, not just Tory MPs

So you go from one comment talking about the current mood of Tory Associations to the next post saying that Tory Associations are irrelevant currently.

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1107778610730020864

LOL

If its that easy then we really do have a Parliament of Posturers.

Deals always get reached at 5 minutes to midnight.

But what happens if at 4 minutes to midnight our MPs say the Deal isn't good enough ?

another_richard said:

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1107778610730020864

LOL

If its that easy then we really do have a Parliament of Posturers.

Deals always get reached at 5 minutes to midnight.

But what happens if at 4 minutes to midnight our MPs say the Deal isn't good enough ?

Then we move on to 3 mintues to midnight.

rottenborough said:

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

Labour front bench back out of Newsnight discussion of today's events.

Great! They would have sent Budgon or the other clueless cretin who always embarrasses himself and the party talking utter crap about our "position"

https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1107776712916561921

Is that's his WWE wrestling or darts nickname?

https://twitter.com/stigeidi/status/1107741945055588352

Night all. My head is spinning and I need to lie down.

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1107778610730020864

LOL

If its that easy then we really do have a Parliament of Posturers.

Deals always get reached at 5 minutes to midnight.

Quite apart from the fact that we are further away from a deal than we were 3 months ago, your statement contains a teensy flaw.

Some deals get done at 5 minutes to midnight. This does not mean that because it is 5 minutes to midnight therefore a deal will be done.

I have watched the news, caught up on PB and Twitter and also made contact with my civil service source. My conclusion is that we are up shit creek, arguing over who chucked the paddle overboard. What a fiasco. At least my share portfolio is holding up nicely!

RochdalePioneers said:

El_Capitano said:

RochdalePioneers said:

rottenborough said:

Labour front bench back out of Newsnight discussion of today's events.

Great! They would have sent Budgon or the other clueless cretin who always embarrasses himself and the party talking utter crap about our "position"

By "the other clueless cretin who always embarrasses himself" you can, of course, only mean Barry Gardiner.

That's him. What an utter tool that man is

that he is

rottenborough said:

Night all. My head is spinning and I need to lie down.

You should really stay off the Buckfast.....

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1107778610730020864

LOL

If its that easy then we really do have a Parliament of Posturers.

Deals always get reached at 5 minutes to midnight.

Quite apart from the fact that we are further away from a deal than we were 3 months ago, your statement contains a teensy flaw.

Some deals get done at 5 minutes to midnight. This does not mean that because it is 5 minutes to midnight therefore a deal will be done.

I have watched the news, caught up on PB and Twitter and also made contact with my civil service source. My conclusion is that we are up shit creek, arguing over who chucked the paddle overboard. What a fiasco. At least my share portfolio is holding up nicely!

That 's what people enjoy arguing over. MP's are having too much fun to stop.

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1107778610730020864

LOL

If its that easy then we really do have a Parliament of Posturers.

Deals always get reached at 5 minutes to midnight.

Quite apart from the fact that we are further away from a deal than we were 3 months ago, your statement contains a teensy flaw.

Some deals get done at 5 minutes to midnight. This does not mean that because it is 5 minutes to midnight therefore a deal will be done.

You could totally see the British factions making a deal at 5 minutes to midnight then realizing they're 55 minutes too late

https://twitter.com/BorderIrish/status/1107713404423360512

kjohnw said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1107784736125190147

She cannot be seriously contemplating another 9months of uncertainty for business . This needs sorting one way or another in the next 3months maximum . If her deal cannot be revived she needs to resign and let someone else take the helm and reset the negotiations.

A reset needs a long extension.

If there's a long extension then the only purpose that will serve is to replace May. She should admit defeat [like Cameron did on 24 June 2016] and resign the moment a long extension is signed.

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1107778610730020864

What are the consequences of overturning the convention? It is there for a reason. Maybe some MPs wont want to do that.

I think assuming they can get a majority for it is questionable for just that reason, particularly among people who have only reluctantly backed the deal and are not ardent opponents of the Speaker like the front bench are. Given the number of Tory holdouts under any circumstances, and the large number of Lab MPs therefore needed under the best circumstances, such a vote looks very tricky to win, more so than merely voting for the deal would have been I suspect.

As to overturning the convention, or a convention generally, there is a reason suspending standing orders is a valid approach, because sometimes it is necessary. Indeed, many MPs have already argued that other standing orders should have been suspended on that basis. Erskine May seems to encourage it, in exceptional circumstances, by talking about ingenious wording of motions and so on, while still leaving it in the hands of the Speaker to apply the rule in most situations.

However, if it is to happen it should not be done lightly, and should be for a very specific reason and purpose, with the implications very clear. In short, it should be very exceptional. These are exceptional times, but I'm not convinced a desperate move to suspend is going to be done so carefully and with such consideration, and as a political gamble it seems one with a high risk of failure to boot.

There may be no good options for the government, but if they are to start this fight, they need to win it, and I doubt Bercow would have made the call he did if he was worried about them winning such a tussle. All those opposed to the deal and some who supported it probably agree with him. It's not worth fighting that battle, they've already lost it.

dixiedean said:

Cyclefree said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1107778610730020864

"If" the government has a majority. "If" is doing a lot of work there.

Seal deal with DUP is too tbf.

Particularly when they have no reason to stick their necks out now. It's not like they care what form Brexit takes, or if we Remain.

kle4 said:

dixiedean said:

Cyclefree said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1107778610730020864

"If" the government has a majority. "If" is doing a lot of work there.

Seal deal with DUP is too tbf.

Particularly when they have no reason to stick their necks out now. It's not like they care what form Brexit takes, or if we Remain.

They may have a couple of billion reasons to stick their necks out now.