This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke
Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?
Right now the best thing that could happen is not revocation, another referendum, or a redundant general election, but a rogue asteroid; so that a new Parliament has to be formed from scratch.
I expect Chris Grayling will probably still manage to crawl out from under the rubble though
Right now the best thing that could happen is not revocation, another referendum, or a redundant general election, but a rogue asteroid; so that a new Parliament has to be formed from scratch.
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What GE outcome would change anything? And is that outcome likely?
The Conservatives need to deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.
Until they do that there is no chance of May's deal passing.
What the outcome of a GE would be I don't know but the current situation clearly is not working.
If you deselect the ERG you can kiss goodbye to the Tory Party so I fail to see how that solves anything.
Surely - since Parliament has voted against the WA and voted against a no deal exit - they must now vote on whether:-
(a) to revoke Article 50; or (b) have a referendum, which are the only options left that relate specifically to Brexit.
Then depending on which gets the most votes in favour May acts on that. The EU 27 would agree to an extension for a referendum I think. They might be relieved if we revoke though I wouldn't blame them if their initial reaction if we revoked was to go "Oh, fuck. No!"
She is however too stubborn, stupid and unimaginative and listens to no-one sensible and the Tory party is such a disgrace that I imagine she will try for some idiotic nonsense (like proroguing or some such arcane idiocy). Which won't work and we end up crashing out with not all of the relevant necessary legislation in place and so a legal mess for years to come. So lawyers - if no-one else - will be pleased.
The Tories are making Corbyn as PM more and more likely (in itself a bad enough prospect for anyone sane) but, even worse, they are making the prospect of him being in power seem like a better alternative than the shower of incompetent shits (with apologies to the decent Tories on this board) the current Tory party has turned into. Some of the stupider Tories seem to think that No Deal will vindicate them whereas it will annihilate them and seriously risks ruining the country.
And once May has acted on what Parliament tells her and been humiliated at the EU summit, she needs to go. Though when I think of who might succeed her I wobble even on that.
Didn't Parliament vote against a referendum last week?
Yes and that is where Bercow's ruling causes problems as it has already been voted down
IIUC that was an amendment to tack on the referendum plan to the request for an extension. That seems materially different from what Kyle-Wilson were planning which is the MV, with "but only if confirmed by a referendum" added.
The real problem comes when Bercow has to decide next week whether MV3 (delayed) is substantially different.
Just what I was thinking. The pressure on him is going to be absolutely enormous, if so, but does a delay inside the deal really mean change in the "substantive deal" ? I don't know what the legal precedents are here.
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke
Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?
It is certainly not going to be manageable during a snap general election, which still will not solve the fact Parliament has to come to a decision on Brexit and sooner rather than later
I love the way the news keeps referring to May's "strategy". The one thing May has never had since the moment she became PM has been a strategy.
If the past few years of UK politics had been a work of fiction it would have been criticised for being unrealistic on many points, not least of which being the epic ineptitude of the Prime Minister.
Not forgetting the mystery of how someone with no people skills and no leadership skills became PM.
The real problem comes when Bercow has to decide next week whether MV3 (delayed) is substantially different.
Just what I was thinking. The pressure on him is going to be absolutely enormous, if so, but does a delay inside the deal really mean change in the "substantive deal" ? I don't know what the legal precedents are here.
Exactly. I bet Erskin May leaves plenty of wiggle room for the judgment of the Speaker.
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What GE outcome would change anything? And is that outcome likely?
A GE means a new Parliamentary Session - and a new opportunity to vote on May's Deal.
Which still won't get the numbers, in fact I suspect the latest events will entrench divisions.
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke
Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?
It is certainly not going to be manageable during a snap general election, which still will not solve the fact Parliament has to come to a decision on Brexit and sooner rather than later
It might be if you deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.
Whereas your idea is what ? Do nothing and keep claiming everything is going to plan ?
The real problem comes when Bercow has to decide next week whether MV3 (delayed) is substantially different.
Just what I was thinking. The pressure on him is going to be absolutely enormous, if so, but does a delay inside the deal really mean change in the "substantive deal" ? I don't know what the legal precedents are here.
If MV3 is only going to win 280 votes, it makes no difference if he rules it out. If it's got 320 votes, it will pass regardless of him.
Surely - since Parliament has voted against the WA and voted against a no deal exit - they must now vote on whether:-
(a) to revoke Article 50; or (b) have a referendum, which are the only options left that relate specifically to Brexit.
Then depending on which gets the most votes in favour May acts on that. The EU 27 would agree to an extension for a referendum I think. They might be relieved if we revoke though I wouldn't blame them if their initial reaction if we revoked was to go "Oh, fuck. No!"
She is however too stubborn, stupid and unimaginative and listens to no-one sensible and the Tory party is such a disgrace that I imagine she will try for some idiotic nonsense (like proroguing or some such arcane idiocy). Which won't work and we end up crashing out with not all of the relevant necessary legislation in place and so a legal mess for years to come. So lawyers - if no-one else - will be pleased.
The Tories are making Corbyn as PM more and more likely (in itself a bad enough prospect for anyone sane) but, even worse, they are making the prospect of him being in power seem like a better alternative than the shower of incompetent shits (with apologies to the decent Tories on this board) the current Tory party has turned into. Some of the stupider Tories seem to think that No Deal will vindicate them whereas it will annihilate them and seriously risks ruining the country.
And once May has acted on what Parliament tells her and been humiliated at the EU summit, she needs to go. Though when I think of who might succeed her I wobble even on that.
Didn't Parliament vote against a referendum last week?
Yes and that is where Bercow's ruling causes problems as it has already been voted down
IIUC that was an amendment to tack on the referendum plan to the request for an extension. That seems materially different from what Kyle-Wilson were planning which is the MV, with "but only if confirmed by a referendum" added.
But if MV3 is not coming back neither are amendments
Bercow could be the cause of no deal brexit by his action today
Sounds like another of Jezza's friends in power aren't doing a very good job....
In Gaza, it is no surprise to hear complaints about the terrible living conditions - after all, the World Bank describes a local economy in "free fall" with 70% unemployment among young people.
However, what has been extraordinary in recent days is that large crowds of Palestinians have been turning out on the streets to voice their frustration and even criticise Hamas - the militant Islamist group which rules the strip with an iron fist.
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke
Why have the just ruled out No Deal?
Parliament has already ruled out No Deal, the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO and EUref2.
Every single one of them except revoke has already been voted against.
They twice voted to rule out No Deal under all circumstances, which leaves them to choose from the Deal, CU and/or SM, EUref2 or revoke
They also twice voted to rule out the Deal, they've also voted repeatedly [as you yourself have pointed out] against the CU and/or SM, they've also voted [just the once AFAIK] against EUref2.
Which just leaves revoke. But they'd vote against that too.
I suspect the very reason JB has stuck his oar in today is precisely because the vote didn’t have a cat in hell’s chance this week. Given which, the effect of his intervention is fairly minimal (a bit of sequencing awkwardness and unplanned clock-running-down - admittedly at a time where that’s inadvisable). It’s also true that for ten mins of extra voting, a govt with the votes behind it could give him the finger.
I think the most significant line in what Bercow said was (to the effect) “members should understand that their votes matter”. Listening to James Gray MP spluttering that he won’t now have a chance to show his new found but undying love for Deal is both ROFL- and vomit-inducing in one handy soundbite. If it was that tolerable, you should have gone through the aye lobby first (or second) time round. Like hundreds more, you thought your vote was like a by-election flutter on UKIP or the Monster Raving Loonies.. a bit of harmless virtue-signalling which had no consequence. Well, if you’ve now been found out as a bit of a pillock *and* managed to destroy your government, sad times all round.
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What GE outcome would change anything? And is that outcome likely?
The Conservatives need to deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.
Until they do that there is no chance of May's deal passing.
What the outcome of a GE would be I don't know but the current situation clearly is not working.
If you deselect the ERG you can kiss goodbye to the Tory Party so I fail to see how that solves anything.
In which case the ERG will have to deselect the rest of the Conservative party - except they already tried that and failed.
The Conservative party has to decide what it stands for one way or another.
But its certainly not going to be able to function as a government until it does that.
And what happens when there is no functioning government ?
The real problem comes when Bercow has to decide next week whether MV3 (delayed) is substantially different.
Just what I was thinking. The pressure on him is going to be absolutely enormous, if so, but does a delay inside the deal really mean change in the "substantive deal" ? I don't know what the legal precedents are here.
If MV3 is only going to win 280 votes, it makes no difference if he rules it out. If it's got 320 votes, it will pass regardless of him.
Although .. that would require a level of planning the government has so far seemed incapable of.
Right now the best thing that could happen is not revocation, another referendum, or a redundant general election, but a rogue asteroid; so that a new Parliament has to be formed from scratch.
Neat trick trying to build foundations from the top of the ladder. Which probably explains why he’ll end up doing a comic but Laurel & Hardy faceplant as the ladder pivots away from the building.
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke
Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?
It is certainly not going to be manageable during a snap general election, which still will not solve the fact Parliament has to come to a decision on Brexit and sooner rather than later
It might be if you deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.
Whereas your idea is what ? Do nothing and keep claiming everything is going to plan ?
Given the current mood of Tory Associations I would expect more ERG candidates to be selected not less.
My idea is to get the Commons to finally vote on all the alternative Brexit positions having ruled out No Deal and then put that to the EU when requesting the extension
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke
Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?
It is certainly not going to be manageable during a snap general election, which still will not solve the fact Parliament has to come to a decision on Brexit and sooner rather than later
It might be if you deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.
Whereas your idea is what ? Do nothing and keep claiming everything is going to plan ?
You might be able to pick off one or two of the ERG (I don't think Chope is popular in Christchurch) but I doubt if mass des elections are feasible. Grieve, Gyimah, and Lee would probably not be reselected by their associations.
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke
Why have the just ruled out No Deal?
Parliament has already ruled out No Deal, the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO and EUref2.
Every single one of them except revoke has already been voted against.
They twice voted to rule out No Deal under all circumstances, which leaves them to choose from the Deal, CU and/or SM, EUref2 or revoke
They also twice voted to rule out the Deal, they've also voted repeatedly [as you yourself have pointed out against the CU and/or SM, they've also voted [just the once AFAIK] against EUref2.
Which just leaves revoke. But they'd vote against that too.
They voted last year against the CU by just 6 votes, Brexit with permanent CU remains the likeliest outcome if all else fails
A number of people are calling for those voting against the Deal [whether from the Grieve or JRM wings] to be deselected.
How is that any different to Corbynites calling for 'Blairites' to be deselected? Our parties should be broad churches not cultish slaves to the line of the current leader.
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke
Why have the just ruled out No Deal?
Parliament has already ruled out No Deal, the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO and EUref2.
Every single one of them except revoke has already been voted against.
They twice voted to rule out No Deal under all circumstances, which leaves them to choose from the Deal, CU and/or SM, EUref2 or revoke
They also twice voted to rule out the Deal, they've also voted repeatedly [as you yourself have pointed out against the CU and/or SM, they've also voted [just the once AFAIK] against EUref2.
Which just leaves revoke. But they'd vote against that too.
They voted last year against the CU by just 6 votes, Brexit with permanent CU remains the likeliest outcome if all else fails
Permanent customs union is not for the WA, but for the following trade agreement.
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke
Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?
It is certainly not going to be manageable during a snap general election, which still will not solve the fact Parliament has to come to a decision on Brexit and sooner rather than later
It might be if you deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.
Whereas your idea is what ? Do nothing and keep claiming everything is going to plan ?
Given the current mood of Tory Associations I would expect more ERG candidates to be selected not less.
My idea is to get the Commons to finally vote on all the alternative Brexit positions having ruled out No Deal and then put that to the EU when requesting the extension
So you'd get some wishy-washy BINO to be approved by referendum after extra payments to the EU.
You think that Tory Associations would approve of that in their current mood ?
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke
Why have the just ruled out No Deal?
Parliament has already ruled out No Deal, the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO and EUref2.
Every single one of them except revoke has already been voted against.
They twice voted to rule out No Deal under all circumstances, which leaves them to choose from the Deal, CU and/or SM, EUref2 or revoke
They also twice voted to rule out the Deal, they've also voted repeatedly [as you yourself have pointed out against the CU and/or SM, they've also voted [just the once AFAIK] against EUref2.
Which just leaves revoke. But they'd vote against that too.
They voted last year against the CU by just 6 votes, Brexit with permanent CU remains the likeliest outcome if all else fails
Yes they voted against it. If we're playing a game of anything voted against can't be repeated then that's already gone.
If Parliament can change its mind then all options remain.
The real problem comes when Bercow has to decide next week whether MV3 (delayed) is substantially different.
If there is a majority for MV3, it will pass, as MP's can amend standing orders.
Can you explain? What does that mean?
It means they can first vote that there should be a vote on MV3, before then voting on the main motion.
Thanks. If she can get MV3 then maybe she can get the votes to overturn the convention, but as Grieve has just said on Newsnight, the same people may not vote for both.
I love the way the news keeps referring to May's "strategy". The one thing May has never had since the moment she became PM has been a strategy.
If the past few years of UK politics had been a work of fiction it would have been criticised for being unrealistic on many points, not least of which being the epic ineptitude of the Prime Minister.
Not forgetting the mystery of how someone with no people skills and no leadership skills became PM.
The candidate nobody hated enough to stop. Then they found out and wished they had.
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke
Why have the just ruled out No Deal?
Parliament has already ruled out No Deal, the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO and EUref2.
Every single one of them except revoke has already been voted against.
They twice voted to rule out No Deal under all circumstances, which leaves them to choose from the Deal, CU and/or SM, EUref2 or revoke
They also twice voted to rule out the Deal, they've also voted repeatedly [as you yourself have pointed out against the CU and/or SM, they've also voted [just the once AFAIK] against EUref2.
Which just leaves revoke. But they'd vote against that too.
They voted last year against the CU by just 6 votes, Brexit with permanent CU remains the likeliest outcome if all else fails
Permanent customs union is not for the WA, but for the following trade agreement.
Yes but it may be the only way the WA would get passed, it would make the temporary CU in the backstop which is part of the WA become permanent
But if MV3 is not coming back neither are amendments
Bercow could be the cause of no deal brexit by his action today
Right, they can't amend the non-existent MV, somebody would have to table an actual motion, but for example it would presumably be legit to table the MV if it also contained the Kyle-Wilson additions, since it would be a different thing to the MV that they've voted on previously. (I'm not sure if it would then be legal to amend that to remove the Kyle-Wilson stuff and vote on the pure MV again...)
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What GE outcome would change anything? And is that outcome likely?
The Conservatives need to deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.
Until they do that there is no chance of May's deal passing.
What the outcome of a GE would be I don't know but the current situation clearly is not working.
If you deselect the ERG you can kiss goodbye to the Tory Party so I fail to see how that solves anything.
What are the consequences of overturning the convention? It is there for a reason. Maybe some MPs wont want to do that.
There are no consequences if the mps majority vote to disregard standing orders. Bercow was challenged on this in a point of order and affirmed MV3 can be brought back if there is a majority to do so. He said it is a HOC decision
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke
Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?
It is certainly not going to be manageable during a snap general election, which still will not solve the fact Parliament has to come to a decision on Brexit and sooner rather than later
It might be if you deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.
Whereas your idea is what ? Do nothing and keep claiming everything is going to plan ?
Given the current mood of Tory Associations I would expect more ERG candidates to be selected not less.
My idea is to get the Commons to finally vote on all the alternative Brexit positions having ruled out No Deal and then put that to the EU when requesting the extension
So you'd get some wishy-washy BINO to be approved by referendum after extra payments to the EU.
You think that Tory Associations would approve of that in their current mood ?
Tory Associations are largely irrelevant at the moment, most Tory MPs have already voted for the Deal, then to keep No Deal on the table and not to extend Article 50, the Commons though has voted against the Deal and to take No Deal off the table and to extend Article 50.
It is the Commons which will decide as a whole what Brexit looks like, not just Tory MPs
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke
Why have the just ruled out No Deal?
Parliament has already ruled out No Deal, the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO and EUref2.
Every single one of them except revoke has already been voted against.
They twice voted to rule out No Deal under all circumstances, which leaves them to choose from the Deal, CU and/or SM, EUref2 or revoke
They also twice voted to rule out the Deal, they've also voted repeatedly [as you yourself have pointed out against the CU and/or SM, they've also voted [just the once AFAIK] against EUref2.
Which just leaves revoke. But they'd vote against that too.
They voted last year against the CU by just 6 votes, Brexit with permanent CU remains the likeliest outcome if all else fails
Yes they voted against it. If we're playing a game of anything voted against can't be repeated then that's already gone.
If Parliament can change its mind then all options remain.
They can vote to amend the Withdrawal Agreement to include a permanent CU, tack on a referendum to approve it etc
I think Big_G may have called this right and Bercow has helped May.
After months [years - ed] of everyone squabbling amongst each other he has stepped in and intervened in a way that has got everyone's backs up and made himself the issue. Nothing brings people back together to have a united front more than a common enemy. Corbyn hasn't been that common enemy. Bercow now is the lightning rod for everyone's discontent.
MPs torn with a dilemma of "I want Brexit, but the EU wants this so I don't trust it, I'll show them" now are faced with "I want Brexit and Bercow is trying to stop us from getting it, I'll show him".
What are the consequences of overturning the convention? It is there for a reason. Maybe some MPs wont want to do that.
There are no consequences if the mps majority vote to disregard standing orders. Bercow was challenged on this in a point of order and affirmed MV3 can be brought back if there is a majority to do so. He said it is a HOC decision
So, there has been a massive fuss, driven partly by media and back bench MPs mouthing off, about absolutely nothing.
If there are enough MPs who want MV3, then there will be enough MPs who want standing orders suspended.
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke
Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?
It is certainly not going to be manageable during a snap general election, which still will not solve the fact Parliament has to come to a decision on Brexit and sooner rather than later
It might be if you deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.
Whereas your idea is what ? Do nothing and keep claiming everything is going to plan ?
Given the current mood of Tory Associations I would expect more ERG candidates to be selected not less.
My idea is to get the Commons to finally vote on all the alternative Brexit positions having ruled out No Deal and then put that to the EU when requesting the extension
So you'd get some wishy-washy BINO to be approved by referendum after extra payments to the EU.
You think that Tory Associations would approve of that in their current mood ?
Tory Associations are largely irrelevant at the moment, most Tory MPs have already voted for the Deal, then to keep No Deal on the table and not to extend Article 50, the Commons though has voted against the Deal and to take No Deal off the table and to extend Article 50.
It is the Commons which will decide as a whole what Brexit looks like, not just Tory MPs
The Commons can stop things happening, but it cannot make things happen, without changing the government.
But if MV3 is not coming back neither are amendments
Bercow could be the cause of no deal brexit by his action today
Right, they can't amend the non-existent MV, somebody would have to table an actual motion, but for example it would presumably be legit to table the MV if it also contained the Kyle-Wilson additions, since it would be a different thing to the MV that they've voted on previously. (I'm not sure if it would then be legal to amend that to remove the Kyle-Wilson stuff and vote on the pure MV again...)
TM would not bring MV3 back with a referendum amendment but of course if it does come back then the house could vote for it. Therefore there may be sufficient mps who want to overrule standing orders for both the deal and the option for a referendum
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke
Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?
It is certainly not going to be manageable during a snap general election, which still will not solve the fact Parliament has to come to a decision on Brexit and sooner rather than later
It might be if you deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.
Whereas your idea is what ? Do nothing and keep claiming everything is going to plan ?
Given the current mood of Tory Associations I would expect more ERG candidates to be selected not less.
My idea is to get the Commons to finally vote on all the alternative Brexit positions having ruled out No Deal and then put that to the EU when requesting the extension
So you'd get some wishy-washy BINO to be approved by referendum after extra payments to the EU.
You think that Tory Associations would approve of that in their current mood ?
Tory Associations are largely irrelevant at the moment, most Tory MPs have already voted for the Deal, then to keep No Deal on the table and not to extend Article 50, the Commons though has voted against the Deal and to take No Deal off the table and to extend Article 50.
It is the Commons which will decide as a whole what Brexit looks like, not just Tory MPs
So you go from one comment talking about the current mood of Tory Associations to the next post saying that Tory Associations are irrelevant currently.
What are the consequences of overturning the convention? It is there for a reason. Maybe some MPs wont want to do that.
There are no consequences if the mps majority vote to disregard standing orders. Bercow was challenged on this in a point of order and affirmed MV3 can be brought back if there is a majority to do so. He said it is a HOC decision
So, there has been a massive fuss, driven partly by media and back bench MPs mouthing off, about absolutely nothing.
If there are enough MPs who want MV3, then there will be enough MPs who want standing orders suspended.
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is a general election going to achieve? Very little on current polling but yet another hung parliament, unless May won a landslide of over 100 she still has nowhere near any certainty of getting her Deal through. It is time for Parliament to make its mind up, having ruled out No Deal do they back the Deal, Customs Union and/or Single Market BINO or EUref2 or revoke
Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?
It is certainly not going to be manageable during a snap general election, which still will not solve the fact Parliament has to come to a decision on Brexit and sooner rather than later
It might be if you deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.
Whereas your idea is what ? Do nothing and keep claiming everything is going to plan ?
Given the current mood of Tory Associations I would expect more ERG candidates to be selected not less.
My idea is to get the Commons to finally vote on all the alternative Brexit positions having ruled out No Deal and then put that to the EU when requesting the extension
So you'd get some wishy-washy BINO to be approved by referendum after extra payments to the EU.
You think that Tory Associations would approve of that in their current mood ?
Tory Associations are largely irrelevant at the moment, most Tory MPs have alreadyry MPs
The Commons can stop things happening, but it cannot make things happen, without changing the government.
May has effectively almost given up being the government for the moment, as she and Liddington have already said if she cannot get her MV through she will let Parliament decide how it should be amended or an alternative way forward, with a series of votes on March 25th
If its that easy then we really do have a Parliament of Posturers.
Deals always get reached at 5 minutes to midnight.
Quite apart from the fact that we are further away from a deal than we were 3 months ago, your statement contains a teensy flaw.
Some deals get done at 5 minutes to midnight. This does not mean that because it is 5 minutes to midnight therefore a deal will be done.
I have watched the news, caught up on PB and Twitter and also made contact with my civil service source. My conclusion is that we are up shit creek, arguing over who chucked the paddle overboard. What a fiasco. At least my share portfolio is holding up nicely!
This is probably the last chance for May to get hold of the situation. I think her only option left is to ask for a 6 month delay to call a GE and go to the country on the basis of government needs a majority and x mandate to proceed with my deal. If she doesn't 22 will make 97 look close
In retrospect its been obvious that a GE would be necessary ever since the ERG had their tantrum last November.
What is evoke
Even by your standards are you so obtuse that you think the Conservative party is going to be manageable after what has happened ?
It is certainly not going to be manageable during a snap general election, which still will not solve the fact Parliament has to come to a decision on Brexit and sooner rather than later
It might be if you deselect the ERG and Grieve's gang.
Whereas your idea is what ? Do nothing and keep claiming everything is going to plan ?
Given the current mood of Tory Associations I would expect more ERG candidates to be selected not less.
My idea is to get the Commons to finally vote on all the alternative Brexit positions having ruled out No Deal and then put that to the EU when requesting the extension
So you'd get some wishy-washy BINO to be approved by referendum after extra payments to the EU.
You think that Tory Associations would approve of that in their current mood ?
Tory Associations are largely irrelevant at the moment, most Tory MPs have already voted for the Deal, then to keep No Deal on the table and not to extend Article 50, the Commons though has voted against the Deal and to take No Deal off the table and to extend Article 50.
It is the Commons which will decide as a whole what Brexit looks like, not just Tory MPs
So you go from one comment talking about the current mood of Tory Associations to the next post saying that Tory Associations are irrelevant currently.
They are except if they are the Associations of Letwin, Boles, Rudd, Soames, Halfon, Lee, Freeman, Benyon, Neil, Spelman etc as they are the current Commons swing voters who ensured the vote to take No Deal off the table won the day and who would likely vote for Norway Plus or permanent Common Market or even EUref2 if the Deal fails again
If its that easy then we really do have a Parliament of Posturers.
Deals always get reached at 5 minutes to midnight.
Quite apart from the fact that we are further away from a deal than we were 3 months ago, your statement contains a teensy flaw.
Some deals get done at 5 minutes to midnight. This does not mean that because it is 5 minutes to midnight therefore a deal will be done.
I have watched the news, caught up on PB and Twitter and also made contact with my civil service source. My conclusion is that we are up shit creek, arguing over who chucked the paddle overboard. What a fiasco. At least my share portfolio is holding up nicely!
That 's what people enjoy arguing over. MP's are having too much fun to stop.
She cannot be seriously contemplating another 9months of uncertainty for business . This needs sorting one way or another in the next 3months maximum . If her deal cannot be revived she needs to resign and let someone else take the helm and reset the negotiations.
She cannot be seriously contemplating another 9months of uncertainty for business . This needs sorting one way or another in the next 3months maximum . If her deal cannot be revived she needs to resign and let someone else take the helm and reset the negotiations.
A reset needs a long extension.
If there's a long extension then the only purpose that will serve is to replace May. She should admit defeat [like Cameron did on 24 June 2016] and resign the moment a long extension is signed.
What are the consequences of overturning the convention? It is there for a reason. Maybe some MPs wont want to do that.
I think assuming they can get a majority for it is questionable for just that reason, particularly among people who have only reluctantly backed the deal and are not ardent opponents of the Speaker like the front bench are. Given the number of Tory holdouts under any circumstances, and the large number of Lab MPs therefore needed under the best circumstances, such a vote looks very tricky to win, more so than merely voting for the deal would have been I suspect.
As to overturning the convention, or a convention generally, there is a reason suspending standing orders is a valid approach, because sometimes it is necessary. Indeed, many MPs have already argued that other standing orders should have been suspended on that basis. Erskine May seems to encourage it, in exceptional circumstances, by talking about ingenious wording of motions and so on, while still leaving it in the hands of the Speaker to apply the rule in most situations.
However, if it is to happen it should not be done lightly, and should be for a very specific reason and purpose, with the implications very clear. In short, it should be very exceptional. These are exceptional times, but I'm not convinced a desperate move to suspend is going to be done so carefully and with such consideration, and as a political gamble it seems one with a high risk of failure to boot.
There may be no good options for the government, but if they are to start this fight, they need to win it, and I doubt Bercow would have made the call he did if he was worried about them winning such a tussle. All those opposed to the deal and some who supported it probably agree with him. It's not worth fighting that battle, they've already lost it.
She cannot be seriously contemplating another 9months of uncertainty for business . This needs sorting one way or another in the next 3months maximum . If her deal cannot be revived she needs to resign and let someone else take the helm and reset the negotiations.
Perhaps she does - but I’m failing to see how you think such a ‘reset’ might resolve the uncertainty any sooner.
Who is this mythical helmsperson who can sort it all out ?
She cannot be seriously contemplating another 9months of uncertainty for business . This needs sorting one way or another in the next 3months maximum . If her deal cannot be revived she needs to resign and let someone else take the helm and reset the negotiations.
Perhaps she does - but I’m failing to see how you think such a ‘reset’ might resolve the uncertainty any sooner.
Who is this mythical helmsperson who can sort it all out ?
Forget about sooner or later. If May can't resolve it then a 'reset' may allow a resolution.
Comments
Tell me it isn't Grayling.
Whereas your idea is what ? Do nothing and keep claiming everything is going to plan ?
Bercow could be the cause of no deal brexit by his action today
In Gaza, it is no surprise to hear complaints about the terrible living conditions - after all, the World Bank describes a local economy in "free fall" with 70% unemployment among young people.
However, what has been extraordinary in recent days is that large crowds of Palestinians have been turning out on the streets to voice their frustration and even criticise Hamas - the militant Islamist group which rules the strip with an iron fist.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-47616809
Which just leaves revoke. But they'd vote against that too.
I think the most significant line in what Bercow said was (to the effect) “members should understand that their votes matter”. Listening to James Gray MP spluttering that he won’t now have a chance to show his new found but undying love for Deal is both ROFL- and vomit-inducing in one handy soundbite. If it was that tolerable, you should have gone through the aye lobby first (or second) time round. Like hundreds more, you thought your vote was like a by-election flutter on UKIP or the Monster Raving Loonies.. a bit of harmless virtue-signalling which had no consequence. Well, if you’ve now been found out as a bit of a pillock *and* managed to destroy your government, sad times all round.
The Conservative party has to decide what it stands for one way or another.
But its certainly not going to be able to function as a government until it does that.
And what happens when there is no functioning government ?
https://twitter.com/BBCScienceNews/status/1107509490549690369
My idea is to get the Commons to finally vote on all the alternative Brexit positions having ruled out No Deal and then put that to the EU when requesting the extension
What might potentially happen is an emergency agreement of something similar to the WA after a No Deal Brexit if too much shit is hitting the fan.
Although the something similar to the WA would then be likely a bit worse than the WA.
How is that any different to Corbynites calling for 'Blairites' to be deselected? Our parties should be broad churches not cultish slaves to the line of the current leader.
You think that Tory Associations would approve of that in their current mood ?
If Parliament can change its mind then all options remain.
Blames The Screaming Eagle. We all hold him accountable...
But I'm not sure how medium term tenable it is.
It is the Commons which will decide as a whole what Brexit looks like, not just Tory MPs
If its that easy then we really do have a Parliament of Posturers.
After months [years - ed] of everyone squabbling amongst each other he has stepped in and intervened in a way that has got everyone's backs up and made himself the issue. Nothing brings people back together to have a united front more than a common enemy. Corbyn hasn't been that common enemy. Bercow now is the lightning rod for everyone's discontent.
MPs torn with a dilemma of "I want Brexit, but the EU wants this so I don't trust it, I'll show them" now are faced with "I want Brexit and Bercow is trying to stop us from getting it, I'll show him".
If there are enough MPs who want MV3, then there will be enough MPs who want standing orders suspended.
Way, way to far off from No Deal exit day for the DUP to come on board yet.
It is all very confusing
And that's fine if you want to keep doing the same things forever.
But as time goes by and situations change ...
Some deals get done at 5 minutes to midnight. This does not mean that because it is 5 minutes to midnight therefore a deal will be done.
I have watched the news, caught up on PB and Twitter and also made contact with my civil service source. My conclusion is that we are up shit creek, arguing over who chucked the paddle overboard. What a fiasco. At least my share portfolio is holding up nicely!
Only 10 days before something positive has to happen or no deal it is
I wish everyone a brexit free pleasant nights rest
Good night folks
Meaningful Vote ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY
If there's a long extension then the only purpose that will serve is to replace May. She should admit defeat [like Cameron did on 24 June 2016] and resign the moment a long extension is signed.
You are George Osborne and I claim my prize.
As to overturning the convention, or a convention generally, there is a reason suspending standing orders is a valid approach, because sometimes it is necessary. Indeed, many MPs have already argued that other standing orders should have been suspended on that basis. Erskine May seems to encourage it, in exceptional circumstances, by talking about ingenious wording of motions and so on, while still leaving it in the hands of the Speaker to apply the rule in most situations.
However, if it is to happen it should not be done lightly, and should be for a very specific reason and purpose, with the implications very clear. In short, it should be very exceptional. These are exceptional times, but I'm not convinced a desperate move to suspend is going to be done so carefully and with such consideration, and as a political gamble it seems one with a high risk of failure to boot.
There may be no good options for the government, but if they are to start this fight, they need to win it, and I doubt Bercow would have made the call he did if he was worried about them winning such a tussle. All those opposed to the deal and some who supported it probably agree with him. It's not worth fighting that battle, they've already lost it.
Who is this mythical helmsperson who can sort it all out ?