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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bercow’s ruling adds to the Brexit uncertainty
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bercow’s ruling adds to the Brexit uncertainty
So another day and more uncertainty over what is going to happen over brexit just 11 days away from the March 29th article 50 deadline. The Commons speaker, John Bercow, ruled in the house this afternoon that the government could not bring the deal plan back to the house for a further vote. He was applying the the rule that in any one session The Commons can only make a decision once.
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May, it is time for LabourBrexit - that'd get through. Indeed. It's not insurmountable. But given various people think remain or no deal have become a lot more certain because of Bercow's actions, the incentive for all those necessary to switch to supporting the deal to suspend the standing orders has to be pretty low.
How much
And for what.
We certainly have less control now.
We can revoke or no deal, but those are the only two choices within our control unless the deal returns.
Anything else is with the permission of the EU
Nevertheless the government can get round it, if they wish, by proposing suspension of standing orders. Such a vote, in such circumstances, would effectively be a proxy for the substantive vote on the deal, and if the orders aren't suspended then it is unlikely the deal would have passed anyway.
Bercow has already on several occasions dropped massive hints. Inconceivable he won't permit it. Inconceivable it won't pass.
End of No Deal.
While a deal is preferable it’s not necessarily controlling.
She won’t.
She’d request (formally) an emergency extension and if the EU failed to grant it she’d blame it on them.
She’ll never revoke.
She's not about to hand the ERG their victory after all they have done to her and her deal.
https://youtu.be/YNlboRM5o6E
I agree with TSE
How can they change or revoke the A50 Act?
How can they instruct Sir Tim Barrow to deliver an instruction on behalf of HMG?
They are the legislature, not the executive.
However I think her Cabinet, her party and the Commons would rebel, and the Speaker (as we have seen) would aid them.
That's what I mean when I say No Deal is a goner. It ain't going to happen.
What is also remarkable is that so many smart people went along with it for so long.
Although now the question has been taken from them I would think they will quickly come out and say they weren't going to back the deal anyway - no point in suggesting they were bending when they won't even get the chance to bend. And the DUP are not fans of being called benders of course.
So we Leave a week on Friday with No Deal.
Something tells me Bercow would allow MV3 in those circumstances. Even if nothing had changed in the motion.
I agree that it's next to impossible for the Commons to force revoke by passing a statute of its own volition as it'd have to pass the Lords too and get Royal Assent, which could lead to the government advising the monarch to withhold assent for the first time since 1708.
I personally think May will revoke if forced to the choice. I know I keep banging on about commencement of the relevant parts of the EUWA but surely if May wanted to rule out revoke altogether she would have commenced the Act by now?
Tthis is the censored version. The uncensored one uses some very bad language.
We’ll have rejoined in the next decade.
Um.
Am I actually going to win my bet?
I keep on reminding/reassuring him that No Deal is just Project Fear.
Because Revoke actuslly destroys the country (at least the contract between subject and rulers), her party and her legacy...
To want no deal isn’t rational. But to rule it out at this late stage with this in mind is even less rational...
Only takes one to reject. With a Spanish election on the horizon Gibraltar becomes a live issue there and here.
It won't happen though. The EU won't [extremely unlikely event of Salvini playing silly buggers aside] actually veto an extension.
Doubt it. In that case I think TM would revoke, and at the same time indicate this is only to buy time to get ready for a no deal, triggering Art 50 again say in 6 months. An excuse could be that the EU in not yet prepared for no deal, or something like that.
But I'm not sure TMs deal is quite out of the picture yet.
Question is what happens now. May has insisted her deal must pass her deal will pass. Now it can only go to another vote if it is augmented with a referendum or an election. And she wants neither of those. But she has to do something. Perhaps her tiny robot brain will explode from her head and reveal she really is the Maybot
Are German carmakers set to play the role of Gandalf at first light on the fifth day at Helm’s Deep?
However, I also think that she would probably lose a dozen MPs to the TIGgers if she were to look like she was about to chose No Deal.
Could she then lose a VoNC? If so, what would the consequence of that be?
It would be unprecedented in our democratic history. It would be, in a sense, the END of our democratic history. Who knows what that would do to us. Civil strife is not unthinkable. Elections would be boycotted. Etc etc. All pretty catastrophic if not quite nation-breaking.
A referendum is a miserable way to solve this, but it is surely, now, the least miserable choice, if TMay's Deal is really dead.
The long rumoured wave of resignations must surely come to pass when it finally is allowed to.