politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bercow’s ruling adds to the Brexit uncertainty
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bercow’s ruling adds to the Brexit uncertainty
So another day and more uncertainty over what is going to happen over brexit just 11 days away from the March 29th article 50 deadline. The Commons speaker, John Bercow, ruled in the house this afternoon that the government could not bring the deal plan back to the house for a further vote. He was applying the the rule that in any one session The Commons can only make a decision once.
0
Comments
-
First!0
-
Second like Mark Francois in a 1-horse race.0
-
Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
@Casino_Royale - it’s all over for the PM, Brexit, the Tory Party, or all 3?0
-
Bercow'e ruling had a precedential basis (not that he cares about that if it is not what he wants to do), but the biggest reason to criticise things is he's probably dragged out some crucial votes by another week. He could have just let MV3 be lost tomorrow!
May, it is time for LabourBrexit - that'd get through.
Indeed. It's not insurmountable. But given various people think remain or no deal have become a lot more certain because of Bercow's actions, the incentive for all those necessary to switch to supporting the deal to suspend the standing orders has to be pretty low.Freggles said:
No. He has said that Parliament can vote to suspend that standing order.Mysticrose said:
No she can't. That's what Bercow's ruling meant. She cannot table the Withdrawal Agreement again unless it is substantially different.Big_G_NorthWales said:
She can if the HOC votes for it and it is the only way a referendum amendment could be madeMysticrose said:
But that still doesn't alter his point: even after the EU summit she can't bring it back to the house unless it has changed. Simply extending our departure isn't an alteration to her deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It makes sense to be fair. Why vote before the EU meetings this week and risk it falling again. Bercow has given TM cover to let the HOC decide after the EU have had their saykle4 said:The most annoying thing is really just that it pushes back the nonsense a few more days.
Unless, for instance, it then includes a referendum pledge.
0 -
It could be, yes.RoyalBlue said:@Casino_Royale - it’s all over for the PM, Brexit, the Tory Party, or all 3?
0 -
It depends if the EU allow any extra time.Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
How much
And for what.
We certainly have less control now.
We can revoke or no deal, but those are the only two choices within our control unless the deal returns.
Anything else is with the permission of the EU0 -
The ruling is surely right under procedure and precedent. And it still looks unlikely the deal would have passed, in any event.
Nevertheless the government can get round it, if they wish, by proposing suspension of standing orders. Such a vote, in such circumstances, would effectively be a proxy for the substantive vote on the deal, and if the orders aren't suspended then it is unlikely the deal would have passed anyway.0 -
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
My suspicion is that the ERG (thinks it) has some tricks up its sleeve to try and thwart an extension. I doubt they are right, but who knows?0
-
Couple of people asked on other threads how the HoC stops No Deal. Easy peasy lemon squeezy. Statute 24 emergency. Any member can.
Bercow has already on several occasions dropped massive hints. Inconceivable he won't permit it. Inconceivable it won't pass.
End of No Deal.0 -
In a Russian nesting doll kind of way can a vote to suspend standing orders [in order to propose something more than once] itself be proposed more than once?IanB2 said:The ruling is surely right under procedure and precedent. And it still looks unlikely the deal would have passed, in any event.
Nevertheless the government can get round it, if they wish, by proposing suspension of standing orders. Such a vote, in such circumstances, would effectively be a proxy for the substantive vote on the deal, and if the orders aren't suspended then it is unlikely the deal would have passed anyway.0 -
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
I don't know for certain but my expectation would be that any speaker would rule that repeatedly putting the same procedural motion before the floor is time wasting and wouldn't be allowed.Philip_Thompson said:
In a Russian nesting doll kind of way can a vote to suspend standing orders [in order to propose something more than once] itself be proposed more than once?IanB2 said:The ruling is surely right under procedure and precedent. And it still looks unlikely the deal would have passed, in any event.
Nevertheless the government can get round it, if they wish, by proposing suspension of standing orders. Such a vote, in such circumstances, would effectively be a proxy for the substantive vote on the deal, and if the orders aren't suspended then it is unlikely the deal would have passed anyway.0 -
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
I don't agree. But in any event it would be Parliament's clear wish, and they have a few nuclear options to encourage her along, if need be.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
Yes. The referendum didn’t say “Leave the EU with a deal.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
While a deal is preferable it’s not necessarily controlling.0 -
That's why I ask "if the government did not agree to stop it?"IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
Has she told you that?Mysticrose said:
She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
Er, what just happened?0
-
You don’t agree because you’re a Remainer and assume she’ll think as you will.IanB2 said:
I don't agree. But in any event it would be Parliament's clear wish, and they have a few nuclear options to encourage her along, if need be.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
She won’t.
She’d request (formally) an emergency extension and if the EU failed to grant it she’d blame it on them.
She’ll never revoke.0 -
That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.Casino_Royale said:
As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
Her Chancellor, yes, but on what evidence do you say she won’t with such confidence?Mysticrose said:
She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.SeanT said:Er, what just happened?
0 -
Casino. I think you're probably right about her revoking but Parliament might do so?0
-
This is tremendously exciting.
0 -
-
CrivvensTheScreamingEagles said:
The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.SeanT said:Er, what just happened?
0 -
She is implacably opposed to No Deal.Casino_Royale said:
Her Chancellor, yes, but on what evidence do you say she won’t with such confidence?Mysticrose said:
She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
She's not about to hand the ERG their victory after all they have done to her and her deal.0 -
I'm afraid that is not how parliament works, but it's nice wishful thinking. If that were the case no deal would have already been voted out a long time ago.Mysticrose said:
That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.Casino_Royale said:
As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
Don’t know if this is half true but “Italy to block brexit delay “ Salvini could block A50 extension.
https://youtu.be/YNlboRM5o6E0 -
I hope you are right but there could be unintended consequences as this goes through the next ten daysMysticrose said:
She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
I agree with TSE0 -
May just got Erskined.SeanT said:Er, what just happened?
0 -
How can they?Mysticrose said:Casino. I think you're probably right about her revoking but Parliament might do so?
How can they change or revoke the A50 Act?
How can they instruct Sir Tim Barrow to deliver an instruction on behalf of HMG?
They are the legislature, not the executive.0 -
No my point is that having indicated their will so strongly they will then put it into statute. There are a number of routes by which No Deal will be halted but it is 100% certain that it will be.Brom said:
I'm afraid that is not how parliament works, but it's nice wishful thinking. If that were the case no deal would have already been voted out a long time ago.Mysticrose said:
That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.Casino_Royale said:
As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
What is statute 24 emergency?Mysticrose said:Couple of people asked on other threads how the HoC stops No Deal. Easy peasy lemon squeezy. Statute 24 emergency. Any member can.
Bercow has already on several occasions dropped massive hints. Inconceivable he won't permit it. Inconceivable it won't pass.
End of No Deal.0 -
I agree with you. I think TMay would, just about, prefer to No Deal us, rather than Revoke (though it would be an agonising choice between two horrors).Casino_Royale said:
Her Chancellor, yes, but on what evidence do you say she won’t with such confidence?Mysticrose said:
She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
However I think her Cabinet, her party and the Commons would rebel, and the Speaker (as we have seen) would aid them.0 -
My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.SeanT said:
CrivvensTheScreamingEagles said:
The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.SeanT said:Er, what just happened?
0 -
No its not yet, much as we would both like it to beMysticrose said:
That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.Casino_Royale said:
As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
He's probably right. Mind you, the ERG reckoned her deal wasn't Brexit anyway.williamglenn said:0 -
Something has changed.0
-
Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.williamglenn said:0 -
They’ve got to repeal legislation they’ve already passed. If the government does not cooperate, how do they do that?Mysticrose said:
No my point is that having indicated their will so strongly they will then put it into statute. There are a number of routes by which No Deal will be halted but it is 100% certain that it will be.Brom said:
I'm afraid that is not how parliament works, but it's nice wishful thinking. If that were the case no deal would have already been voted out a long time ago.Mysticrose said:
That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.Casino_Royale said:
As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
Look if push comes to crunch, she will tag a referendum onto her deal. Labour would probably swallow that ... and certainly would if the alternative was No Deal.SeanT said:
I agree with you. I think TMay would, just about, prefer to No Deal us, rather than Revoke (though it would be an agonising choice between two horrors).Casino_Royale said:
Her Chancellor, yes, but on what evidence do you say she won’t with such confidence?Mysticrose said:
She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
However I think her Cabinet, her party and the Commons would rebel, and the Speaker (as we have seen) would aid them.
That's what I mean when I say No Deal is a goner. It ain't going to happen.0 -
If the other 26 agreed an extension, I think Salvini would be lynched.kjohnw said:Don’t know if this is half true but “Italy to block brexit delay “ Salvini could block A50 extension.
https://youtu.be/YNlboRM5o6E0 -
Favour to Farage or Putin?kjohnw said:Don’t know if this is half true but “Italy to block brexit delay “ Salvini could block A50 extension.
https://youtu.be/YNlboRM5o6E0 -
That's where I think we're heading too.SeanT said:
Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.williamglenn said:0 -
Nothing is 100% in this and there are many very well versed posters who concur it is not out of the question yetMysticrose said:
No my point is that having indicated their will so strongly they will then put it into statute. There are a number of routes by which No Deal will be halted but it is 100% certain that it will be.Brom said:
I'm afraid that is not how parliament works, but it's nice wishful thinking. If that were the case no deal would have already been voted out a long time ago.Mysticrose said:
That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.Casino_Royale said:
As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
If immediate no deal were the only alternative, I believe she would. No deal wrecks the country, her legacy, and her party. She cares about all three.Casino_Royale said:
You don’t agree because you’re a Remainer and assume she’ll think as you will.IanB2 said:
I don't agree. But in any event it would be Parliament's clear wish, and they have a few nuclear options to encourage her along, if need be.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
She won’t.
She’d request (formally) an emergency extension and if the EU failed to grant it she’d blame it on them.
She’ll never revoke.0 -
And while there are other reasons to not wish for a second referendum, there is something in the view that people don't want one because they think they would lose. The chances of deal winning against remain are very low I suspect, and I bet he would agree.SeanT said:
Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.williamglenn said:
Why is that? Parliament will manage something to prevent no deal, Bercow will allow anything at all to see that happen, so remain have nothing to worry about.TheScreamingEagles said:
My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.SeanT said:
CrivvensTheScreamingEagles said:
The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.SeanT said:Er, what just happened?
0 -
I think there may be confusion with Standing Order 24 Emergency Debate - but that’s a debate, not legislation, which is what is required.Ishmael_Z said:
What is statute 24 emergency?Mysticrose said:Couple of people asked on other threads how the HoC stops No Deal. Easy peasy lemon squeezy. Statute 24 emergency. Any member can.
Bercow has already on several occasions dropped massive hints. Inconceivable he won't permit it. Inconceivable it won't pass.
End of No Deal.0 -
I do not want to sound arrogant but that was my immediate thought on listening to Bercow liveTheScreamingEagles said:
My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.SeanT said:
CrivvensTheScreamingEagles said:
The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.SeanT said:Er, what just happened?
0 -
May has really screwed this up to a degree previously unimaginable. It was clear the deal would fail last summer, what was impossible to see was that she would be unable to react, to adapt or to come up with another approach. Remarkable.
What is also remarkable is that so many smart people went along with it for so long.0 -
Cobra meeting !!!!Ishmael_Z said:
What is statute 24 emergency?Mysticrose said:Couple of people asked on other threads how the HoC stops No Deal. Easy peasy lemon squeezy. Statute 24 emergency. Any member can.
Bercow has already on several occasions dropped massive hints. Inconceivable he won't permit it. Inconceivable it won't pass.
End of No Deal.0 -
So, would now be a good time to ask the DUP if they would have backed the deal? It'd be nice to know how close MV3 might have gotten.
Although now the question has been taken from them I would think they will quickly come out and say they weren't going to back the deal anyway - no point in suggesting they were bending when they won't even get the chance to bend. And the DUP are not fans of being called benders of course.0 -
Because I think the EU will reject an extension and Parliament nor Mrs May have the balls to revoke Article 50.kle4 said:
And while there are other reasons to not wish for a second referendum, there is something in the view that people don't want one because they think they would lose. The chances of deal winning against remain are very low I suspect, and I bet he would agree.SeanT said:
Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.williamglenn said:
Why is that? Parliament will manage something to prevent no deal, Bercow will allow anything at all to see that happen, so remain have nothing to worry about.TheScreamingEagles said:
My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.SeanT said:
CrivvensTheScreamingEagles said:
The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.SeanT said:Er, what just happened?
So we Leave a week on Friday with No Deal.0 -
What will this statute actually say?Mysticrose said:
No my point is that having indicated their will so strongly they will then put it into statute. There are a number of routes by which No Deal will be halted but it is 100% certain that it will be.Brom said:
I'm afraid that is not how parliament works, but it's nice wishful thinking. If that were the case no deal would have already been voted out a long time ago.Mysticrose said:
That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.Casino_Royale said:
As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
As in poker, you have to pay to see the cards.kle4 said:So, would now be a good time to ask the DUP if they would have backed the deal? It'd be nice to know how close MV3 might have gotten.
Although now the question has been taken from them I would think they will quickly come out and say they weren't going to back the deal anyway - no point in suggesting they were bending when they won't even get the chance to bend. And the DUP are not fans of being called benders of course.0 -
Yes but to whose benefitJonathan said:Something has changed.
0 -
Not going to happen but would be hilarious if Salvini did block an extension then seeing panicked MPs realise it is actually May's Shit Deal or No Deal and May's Shit Deal needs ramming through Parliament PDQ.
Something tells me Bercow would allow MV3 in those circumstances. Even if nothing had changed in the motion.0 -
Isn't the mechanism for Parliament to force the executive to do something the making of a "humble address" to the Crown? This is was how they got the legal advice released.Mysticrose said:
That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.Casino_Royale said:
As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
I agree that it's next to impossible for the Commons to force revoke by passing a statute of its own volition as it'd have to pass the Lords too and get Royal Assent, which could lead to the government advising the monarch to withhold assent for the first time since 1708.
I personally think May will revoke if forced to the choice. I know I keep banging on about commencement of the relevant parts of the EUWA but surely if May wanted to rule out revoke altogether she would have commenced the Act by now?0 -
To read Mrs May correctly is to have literally no idea what she would do in that situation. That is exactly what she intends and from the above she seems to have succeeded.Mysticrose said:
She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
0 -
The PM is now going to pretty-please the EU for an extension which, if they do not grant it, will really mess us up. All we need now is for Jacob Rees Mogg to play with that cube from "Hellraiser" and the apocalypse will begin.SeanT said:Er, what just happened?
Tthis is the censored version. The uncensored one uses some very bad language.
0 -
This could mean the end of the Tories. Which makes it all so worthwhile0
-
If the EU reject an extension, and I don't think they will since they too don't want to confront things, then I am quite sure Bercow will decide the changed political situation means parliament can vote again on something else he would like.TheScreamingEagles said:
Because I think the EU will reject an extension and Parliament nor Mrs May have the balls to revoke Article 50.kle4 said:
And while there are other reasons to not wish for a second referendum, there is something in the view that people don't want one because they think they would lose. The chances of deal winning against remain are very low I suspect, and I bet he would agree.SeanT said:
Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.williamglenn said:
Why is that? Parliament will manage something to prevent no deal, Bercow will allow anything at all to see that happen, so remain have nothing to worry about.TheScreamingEagles said:
My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.SeanT said:
CrivvensTheScreamingEagles said:
The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.SeanT said:Er, what just happened?
So we Leave a week on Friday with No Deal.0 -
Indeed. I'm almost upset that having been brutally binned off from my old employer last October with a fat sack of cash I managed to land a fab new job with a big pay rise at the start of January. Had I still been an unemployed dosser I could have used my fat sack of cash to be sat in parliament eating popcorn and shouting "bollocks" from the public galleryTheScreamingEagles said:This is tremendously exciting.
0 -
I prefer to see it as the destruction of the British Euroscepticism movement.Fenman said:This could mean the end of the Tories. Which makes it all so worthwhile
We’ll have rejoined in the next decade.0 -
Yang now matched at 14 on Betfair...0
-
To be honest it may be prudent to keep an open mind as this is higly volatile and anything could happen by accident or designMysticrose said:
Look if push comes to crunch, she will tag a referendum onto her deal. Labour would probably swallow that ... and certainly would if the alternative was No Deal.SeanT said:
I agree with you. I think TMay would, just about, prefer to No Deal us, rather than Revoke (though it would be an agonising choice between two horrors).Casino_Royale said:
Her Chancellor, yes, but on what evidence do you say she won’t with such confidence?Mysticrose said:
She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
However I think her Cabinet, her party and the Commons would rebel, and the Speaker (as we have seen) would aid them.
That's what I mean when I say No Deal is a goner. It ain't going to happen.0 -
Parliament does not have that power. It's for government, possibly with parliament's consent.Mysticrose said:Casino. I think you're probably right about her revoking but Parliament might do so?
0 -
Would be funny if we got vetoed having had to eat glass and beg for an extension...Sean_F said:
If the other 26 agreed an extension, I think Salvini would be lynched.kjohnw said:Don’t know if this is half true but “Italy to block brexit delay “ Salvini could block A50 extension.
https://youtu.be/YNlboRM5o6E0 -
To the person who once backed Michelle Obama at 9.0 for the Dem nomination on Betfair: What were you thinking?0
-
In that regard nothing has changed, what we’re seeing at the moment is a lot of people waking up to that fact. May was never in control.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest it may be prudent to keep an open mind as this is higly volatile and anything could happen by accident or designMysticrose said:
Look if push comes to crunch, she will tag a referendum onto her deal. Labour would probably swallow that ... and certainly would if the alternative was No Deal.SeanT said:
I agree with you. I think TMay would, just about, prefer to No Deal us, rather than Revoke (though it would be an agonising choice between two horrors).Casino_Royale said:
Her Chancellor, yes, but on what evidence do you say she won’t with such confidence?Mysticrose said:
She absolutely will not permit No Deal. Nor will her Chancellor.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
However I think her Cabinet, her party and the Commons would rebel, and the Speaker (as we have seen) would aid them.
That's what I mean when I say No Deal is a goner. It ain't going to happen.0 -
-
Ok. Pause.
Um.
Am I actually going to win my bet?0 -
A Vote Leave staffer texted me that we’re 12 days from punch a Leaver day.kle4 said:
If the EU reject an extension, and I don't think they will since they too don't want to confront things, then I am quite sure Bercow will decide the changed political situation means parliament can vote again on something else he would like.TheScreamingEagles said:
Because I think the EU will reject an extension and Parliament nor Mrs May have the balls to revoke Article 50.kle4 said:
And while there are other reasons to not wish for a second referendum, there is something in the view that people don't want one because they think they would lose. The chances of deal winning against remain are very low I suspect, and I bet he would agree.SeanT said:
Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.williamglenn said:
Why is that? Parliament will manage something to prevent no deal, Bercow will allow anything at all to see that happen, so remain have nothing to worry about.TheScreamingEagles said:
My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.SeanT said:
CrivvensTheScreamingEagles said:
The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.SeanT said:Er, what just happened?
So we Leave a week on Friday with No Deal.
I keep on reminding/reassuring him that No Deal is just Project Fear.0 -
May was going to lose again, anyway; now at least she has someone to blame. We desperately need to move on from her futile strategy and the hope must be that the ruling turns minds toward something more sensible to do to force some sort of a decision.0
-
I’m with Casino on this.IanB2 said:
If immediate no deal were the only alternative, I believe she would. No deal wrecks the country, her legacy, and her party. She cares about all three.Casino_Royale said:
You don’t agree because you’re a Remainer and assume she’ll think as you will.IanB2 said:
I don't agree. But in any event it would be Parliament's clear wish, and they have a few nuclear options to encourage her along, if need be.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
She won’t.
She’d request (formally) an emergency extension and if the EU failed to grant it she’d blame it on them.
She’ll never revoke.
Because Revoke actuslly destroys the country (at least the contract between subject and rulers), her party and her legacy...
To want no deal isn’t rational. But to rule it out at this late stage with this in mind is even less rational...0 -
They don't need to repeal the EUWA, except as a tidying-up exercise sometime in the future, if it hasn't been fully commenced. This is why I think it is very significant that the government has not yet commenced it.CarlottaVance said:
They’ve got to repeal legislation they’ve already passed. If the government does not cooperate, how do they do that?Mysticrose said:
No my point is that having indicated their will so strongly they will then put it into statute. There are a number of routes by which No Deal will be halted but it is 100% certain that it will be.Brom said:
I'm afraid that is not how parliament works, but it's nice wishful thinking. If that were the case no deal would have already been voted out a long time ago.Mysticrose said:
That's not what the Speaker said ... and anyway, the HoC already voted its desire by a big majority so they will vote No Deal out by statute. It's a goner.Casino_Royale said:
As far as I’m aware members cannot bring forward legislation to revoke Brexit or amend the withdrawal act in the absence of HMG agreeing, and nor do they control the levers of state which enable cabinet ministers and the PM to formally request the EU to extend A50 as they are not part of HMG.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.0 -
What could mean the end of the Tories? Revocation or no deal. If it's the former I'd agree. If it's the latter who knows it all depends how it pans out. However a deal is far more optimal than either both for the Tories and the UK.Fenman said:This could mean the end of the Tories. Which makes it all so worthwhile
0 -
I don't think they'll reject it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Because I think the EU will reject an extension and Parliament nor Mrs May have the balls to revoke Article 50.kle4 said:
And while there are other reasons to not wish for a second referendum, there is something in the view that people don't want one because they think they would lose. The chances of deal winning against remain are very low I suspect, and I bet he would agree.SeanT said:
Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.williamglenn said:
Why is that? Parliament will manage something to prevent no deal, Bercow will allow anything at all to see that happen, so remain have nothing to worry about.TheScreamingEagles said:
My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.SeanT said:
CrivvensTheScreamingEagles said:
The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.SeanT said:Er, what just happened?
So we Leave a week on Friday with No Deal.0 -
I really assumed she would turn to a referendum solution months ago, but she has surprised me. Bercow was obviously impatient for that switch as well.IanB2 said:May was going to lose again, anyway; now at least she has someone to blame. We desperately need to move on from her futile strategy and the hope must be that the ruling turns minds toward something more sensible to do to force some sort of a decision.
0 -
“Destroys the Country”. Set the hyperbole to 11.Mortimer said:
I’m with Casino on this.IanB2 said:
If immediate no deal were the only alternative, I believe she would. No deal wrecks the country, her legacy, and her party. She cares about all three.Casino_Royale said:
You don’t agree because you’re a Remainer and assume she’ll think as you will.IanB2 said:
I don't agree. But in any event it would be Parliament's clear wish, and they have a few nuclear options to encourage her along, if need be.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
She won’t.
She’d request (formally) an emergency extension and if the EU failed to grant it she’d blame it on them.
She’ll never revoke.
Because Revoke actuslly destroys the country (at least the contract between subject and rulers), her party and her legacy...
To want no deal isn’t rational. But to rule it out at this late stage with this in mind is even less rational...0 -
Sean_F said:
I don't think they'll reject it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Because I think the EU will reject an extension and Parliament nor Mrs May have the balls to revoke Article 50.kle4 said:
And while there are other reasons to not wish for a second referendum, there is something in the view that people don't want one because they think they would lose. The chances of deal winning against remain are very low I suspect, and I bet he would agree.SeanT said:
Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.williamglenn said:
Why is that? Parliament will manage something to prevent no deal, Bercow will allow anything at all to see that happen, so remain have nothing to worry about.TheScreamingEagles said:
My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.SeanT said:
CrivvensTheScreamingEagles said:
The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.SeanT said:Er, what just happened?
So we Leave a week on Friday with No Deal.
Only takes one to reject. With a Spanish election on the horizon Gibraltar becomes a live issue there and here.0 -
If the EU vetos an extension then I doubt May will revoke. She will regret it, she doesn't want No Deal but I think she would [with quite some backing] be able to say that Parliament had an option to remove No Deal from the table by backing her deal . . . but didn't; the EU had the option to remove No Deal from the table by granting an extension . . . but didn't; so buckle up because we're leaving on 29 March. She's honoured the non-binding vote by Parliament to request an extension already but is prepared to give Parliament one more chance to back her deal to remove no deal from the table.
It won't happen though. The EU won't [extremely unlikely event of Salvini playing silly buggers aside] actually veto an extension.0 -
The letters to Brady trick turned out fantasticallyIanB2 said:My suspicion is that the ERG (thinks it) has some tricks up its sleeve to try and thwart an extension. I doubt they are right, but who knows?
0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Because I think the EU will reject an extension and Parliament nor Mrs May have the balls to revoke Article 50.kle4 said:
And while there are other reasons to not wish for a second referendum, there is something in the view that people don't want one because they think they would lose. The chances of deal winning against remain are very low I suspect, and I bet he would agree.SeanT said:
Why is Brexit over??! From my reading we are heading, at worst (from a Leaver perspective), for a new referendum.williamglenn said:
Why is that? Parliament will manage something to prevent no deal, Bercow will allow anything at all to see that happen, so remain have nothing to worry about.TheScreamingEagles said:
My hunch is that very soon Remainers and Dealers will be cursing John Bercow.SeanT said:
CrivvensTheScreamingEagles said:
The chances of No Deal and Revocation just increased.SeanT said:Er, what just happened?
So we Leave a week on Friday with No Deal.
Doubt it. In that case I think TM would revoke, and at the same time indicate this is only to buy time to get ready for a no deal, triggering Art 50 again say in 6 months. An excuse could be that the EU in not yet prepared for no deal, or something like that.
But I'm not sure TMs deal is quite out of the picture yet.
0 -
People's vote could still pass. If it becomes an integral part of MV3 - that's enough of a change for a vote to happen.CarlottaVance said:
Question is what happens now. May has insisted her deal must pass her deal will pass. Now it can only go to another vote if it is augmented with a referendum or an election. And she wants neither of those. But she has to do something. Perhaps her tiny robot brain will explode from her head and reveal she really is the Maybot0 -
Guardian: Certainly the prime minister’s strategy has depended on eliminating options, so that eventually MPs would conclude that the only feasible Brexit on the table was hers. For that to work, she needed to keep bluffing and keep raising the stakes. She didn’t realise that ultimately, in parliament, it’s the Speaker who runs the game. And now all bets are off.0
-
So have the Irish overplayed their hand?
Are German carmakers set to play the role of Gandalf at first light on the fifth day at Helm’s Deep?0 -
I think that's right.Casino_Royale said:
You don’t agree because you’re a Remainer and assume she’ll think as you will.IanB2 said:
I don't agree. But in any event it would be Parliament's clear wish, and they have a few nuclear options to encourage her along, if need be.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
She won’t.
She’d request (formally) an emergency extension and if the EU failed to grant it she’d blame it on them.
She’ll never revoke.
However, I also think that she would probably lose a dozen MPs to the TIGgers if she were to look like she was about to chose No Deal.
Could she then lose a VoNC? If so, what would the consequence of that be?0 -
Could Remain-er MPs get together to elect a temporary PM to request an extension? (Or propose revocation?)rcs1000 said:
I think that's right.Casino_Royale said:
You don’t agree because you’re a Remainer and assume she’ll think as you will.IanB2 said:
I don't agree. But in any event it would be Parliament's clear wish, and they have a few nuclear options to encourage her along, if need be.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agree with you that May's deal and remain are dying but no deal is clearly looming large on the horizon. I think most salient commentators can sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
She won’t.
She’d request (formally) an emergency extension and if the EU failed to grant it she’d blame it on them.
She’ll never revoke.
However, I also think that she would probably lose a dozen MPs to the TIGgers if she were to look like she was about to chose No Deal.
Could she then lose a VoNC? If so, what would the consequence of that be?0 -
It's not necessarily hyperbole. No one has ever held a national referendum, seen the biggest vote in British history for the winning side - only for that vote to be simply cancelled, and ignored. Revoked.Jonathan said:
“Destroys the Country”. Set the hyperbole to 11.Mortimer said:
I’m with Casino on this.IanB2 said:
If immediate no deal were the only alternative, I believe she would. No deal wrecks the country, her legacy, and her party. She cares about all three.Casino_Royale said:
You don’t agree because you’re a Remainer and assume she’ll think as you will.IanB2 said:
need be.Casino_Royale said:
I think those presuming Theresa May would unilaterally revoke Brexit if No Deal were tomorrow are seriously misreading Theresa May.IanB2 said:
Revocation. Unlikely, but not impossible. If the ONLy alternative were to be immediate no deal, both possible and likely.Sean_F said:
If the EU were to refuse an extension (unlikely, but not impossible) how would Brexit be stopped, if the government did not agree to stop it?Mysticrose said:Mysticrose said:
Let's scotch this. There is no chance whatsoever that the HoC will permit No Deal. None. Zero. Nada.Brom said:
I would agreean sense it. A lot can happen in a day though...Mysticrose said:
But if helps the ERG keep their eye off the ball I'm happy for them to carry on thinking otherwise.
She won’t.
She’d request (formally) an emergency extension and if the EU failed to grant it she’d blame it on them.
She’ll never revoke.
Because Revoke actuslly destroys the country (at least the contract between subject and rulers), her party and her legacy...
To want no deal isn’t rational. But to rule it out at this late stage with this in mind is even less rational...
It would be unprecedented in our democratic history. It would be, in a sense, the END of our democratic history. Who knows what that would do to us. Civil strife is not unthinkable. Elections would be boycotted. Etc etc. All pretty catastrophic if not quite nation-breaking.
A referendum is a miserable way to solve this, but it is surely, now, the least miserable choice, if TMay's Deal is really dead.0 -
That strategy climaxed prematurely, as one might expect from the ERG. Had they hit her with it the day after the massive rejection of MV1, things might have turned out differently.Scrapheap_as_was said:
The letters to Brady trick turned out fantasticallyIanB2 said:My suspicion is that the ERG (thinks it) has some tricks up its sleeve to try and thwart an extension. I doubt they are right, but who knows?
0 -
Still no official word from government. Which can mean only one thing. Cabinet has not been permitted to even discuss this, entirely foreseeable, possibility.
The long rumoured wave of resignations must surely come to pass when it finally is allowed to.0
This discussion has been closed.