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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Since TIG was formed the Tories have enjoyed leads of between

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  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,569
    Ha
    DougSeal said:

    Frankly he should take all of the blame. The fact that the Johnson and Gove can take opposing views as to whether May’s deal honours the result of the referendum is proof enough that asking that specific question, with no plan to implement it prior to it being asked, is the root of this mess. Everything else flows from it.

    I once worked in a pub in Canterbury and a lady of some years asked me for a pint of beer. I asked her which, of the many varieties of beer we had on offer, she would like. “Young man - I have asked for a pint of beer. Please serve me one” was the reply. Barking. The referendum question reminded me strongly of that.

    For those wondering I have her a pint of lager. Can’t remember which. She didn’t like it.
    Haha.

    Can I say how much I've appreciated your posts over the past few days? I hope you've been made to feel welcome and can be tempted to stay
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,487
    Pulpstar said:

    For information's sake :

    https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1106537173808021504
    Mad cat woman, indeed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,474
    As an aside, I too am willing to support May's deal in exchange for £1,000,000,000.
  • kfowkeskfowkes Posts: 20

    There seems to be a lot of denial on PB in general about the idea that Corbyn could (reluctantly) support Remain, even though that's exactly what he did in the referendum. It seems pretty clear to me that he's just not that animated by Brexit or questions of the EU in general, and is motivated much more by electoral politics (in which either full-throated Leave or Remain support would be damaging for Labour), and likely by internal power struggles in the party. But I can understand why people who for the past couple of years have thought that Corbyn was an ultra-Brexiteer would be finding it hard to recalibrate to his current position.
    Everything Corbyn has said publicly on the referendum is pretty much

    11 days suspension.

    That's what you call a crackdown.....
    She is Jewish so was only making fun of herself.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,379
    RobD said:

    Good god. She’s equating the Brexit campaign to the attack in Christchurch?
    She's up there with Adonis and Jolyon for BDS......
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,349
    I assume Hammond’s brought his cheque book?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,628

    Sorry mate but we voted to stay in in
    https://twitter.com/Y_Eurosceptics/status/744940249462214660
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,451

    11 days suspension.

    That's what you call a crackdown.....
    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    Is Labour supposed to ban self deprecating jokes ?
    Reading that article, the bad pun by itself seems fairly harmless, although not in very good taste, but making a joke of the Martin Niemöller poem is vile.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,095

    Interesting. From what I hear, a lot of people would deliberately boycott any second referendum. It would store up huge legitimacy issues.
    When and where in history and geography is the example of where a boycott of a democratic vote actually made any difference?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Likely to alienate any Labour MPs contemplating support for MV3 next week. It could also repel a few Tories.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,628
    IanB2 said:

    When and where in history and geography is the example of where a boycott of a democratic vote actually made any difference?
    NI in 1973?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,379
    RobD said:
    The Spring Statement had more than a little loose change left down the back of the sofa, untouched.....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,487

    No I mean it's pretty clear that Leave lied. As Mike Smithson has pointed out on here, it's very dubious. Obviously I don't wish to run a litigious gauntlet as that's already in the hands of authorities but don't be pig-headed about this. You know as well as I do that Farage and Johnson lied, lied and lied again.
    But then, so did their opponents. Neither side holds the moral high ground.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,474
    Mr. Mark, the suggestion I heard here a few weeks ago was that there'd be a concerted campaign for high turnout, but with stronger Leavers spoiling their ballots in a bit to have the number of spoilt ballots exceed the margin of victory, if not the actual total of the winning result (in the event of the options being Remain or May's Deal).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,487
    IanB2 said:

    When and where in history and geography is the example of where a boycott of a democratic vote actually made any difference?
    Quite a few, actually.

    But, I agree that in this case, we'd only be playing into the hands of Remain if we boycotted it, so why do what your opponents want?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,487
    justin124 said:

    Likely to alienate any Labour MPs contemplating support for MV3 next week. It could also repel a few Tories.
    Just follow Aneurin Bevan's example, and if people are prepared to switch, stuff their mouths with gold.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Mr. Mark, the suggestion I heard here a few weeks ago was that there'd be a concerted campaign for high turnout, but with stronger Leavers spoiling their ballots in a bit to have the number of spoilt ballots exceed the margin of victory, if not the actual total of the winning result (in the event of the options being Remain or May's Deal).

    That would be excellent. We'd get a nice clear three-way result, showing how little support there was for leaving with no deal, without the trouble of having a three-way referendum.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,996

    Blaming Cameron for the incoherence of the Leave proposition is quite delightfully bonkers!

    Sadly, no it isn't. He manifestly failed to prepare government for an entirely foreseeable outcome; he resigned as PM when he had given no indication that he was not prepared to lead either outcome; he came back with a lousy renegotiation deal and sold it as if it amounted to something; he presided over a terrible, fearful and negative campaign.

    Remainers have had 44 years, since 1975, of almost unbroken party consensus to build an impregnable case for the EU, fulfil some of its ideals and to shape it in accord with popular opinion. Their failure is lamentable. Mr Cameron, tragically, is part of that problem.

    Of course there is more than one 'Leave' proposition, and it would be incoherent to try to do them all at the same time. So what? There are several competing visions for the EU's future too.

    Parliament has one job, of sorting it out thoughtfully. I'm just trying to remember how that project is getting on.



  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785
    Sean_F said:

    But then, so did their opponents. Neither side holds the moral high ground.
    It is easy to level the charge of lying. I think it is more accurate to call it irresponsible speculation or guessing, some of which was highly improbable, such as "the easiest deal in history". What is clear is that the complication now is that there is no mandate to leave without a deal in place. This is what leave promised in order to squeak their victory. To claim otherwise is a lie.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,086
    So Leave areas get 1.6 billion spread over 7 years . Whilst NI could get bunged over a billion for a tiny fraction of the population over a much shorter timeframe .

    This really could be another May own goal.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,487
    nico67 said:

    So Leave areas get 1.6 billion spread over 7 years . Whilst NI could get bunged over a billion for a tiny fraction of the population over a much shorter timeframe .

    This really could be another May own goal.

    In her position, I'd increase the £1.6bn by a factor of ten.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism....
    or lax on anti-anti-Semitism!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,349
    nico67 said:

    So Leave areas get 1.6 billion spread over 7 years . Whilst NI could get bunged over a billion for a tiny fraction of the population over a much shorter timeframe .

    This really could be another May own goal.

    They could also get nothing.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Interesting. From what I hear, a lot of people would deliberately boycott any second referendum. It would store up huge legitimacy issues.

    Interesting that people being denied a vote last time is "legitimate", but people not being arsed to vote would make it "illegitimate"...
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,978
    RobD said:

    Good god. She’s equating the Brexit campaign to the attack in Christchurch?
    She's actually referring to internet platforms failing to crack down on dodgy content, but I suspect your reading will get all the traction.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2019
    algarkirk said:

    Sadly, no it isn't. He manifestly failed to prepare government for an entirely foreseeable outcome; he resigned as PM when he had given no indication that he was not prepared to lead either outcome; he came back with a lousy renegotiation deal and sold it as if it amounted to something; he presided over a terrible, fearful and negative campaign.

    Remainers have had 44 years, since 1975, of almost unbroken party consensus to build an impregnable case for the EU, fulfil some of its ideals and to shape it in accord with popular opinion. Their failure is lamentable. Mr Cameron, tragically, is part of that problem.

    Of course there is more than one 'Leave' proposition, and it would be incoherent to try to do them all at the same time. So what? There are several competing visions for the EU's future too.

    Parliament has one job, of sorting it out thoughtfully. I'm just trying to remember how that project is getting on.



    It's patently absurd to argue that Cameron could have defined the Leave case for them. They can't even define it for themselves after three years of intensive negotiation and discussion. Any attempt by him to do so would immediately have been denounced as a bunch of lies designed to discredit the Leave position.

    Cameron is the last person to blame. He at least campaigned vigorously and full-throatedly for Remain, which is more than can be said for anyone in Labour or indeed anywhere else.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,522
    Scott_P said:

    Interesting that people being denied a vote last time is "legitimate", but people not being arsed to vote would make it "illegitimate"...
    I'm glad you find it interesting....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,238

    I'm just wondering if maybe the demands you think are more reasonable fall under "or soften Brexit"
    I didn't characterise the alternative demands as reasonable nor unreasonable. I did point out that the demand they were allegedly making (a second referendum) was unlikely to succeed and would arguably make things worse.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785
    Sean_F said:

    In her position, I'd increase the £1.6bn by a factor of ten.
    It seems that she has grown a socialist type magic money tree. We all know where that ends.

    Here lies the remains of the Conservative Party reputation for economic competence. Died of a rabid fever called Brexit. RIP. 1979-2016.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    RobD said:

    They could also get nothing.
    Or we could leave without a deal and they could get £39bn.

    (Yes I know it’s more complicated than that).
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,086
    Sean_F said:

    In her position, I'd increase the £1.6bn by a factor of ten.
    Problem for the Tories is that by accepting those areas suffered highlights it was them inflicting the suffering .

    You’re right though, if you’re going to bung some money make sure it’s a lot with not too many strings attached .
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,474
    Mr. Dawning, there is something in that, but politicians and journalists do seem to think there's a magic algorithm that can just make bad things go away, and there isn't.

    The EU's Article 13 approach is to **** things, seemingly, for huge numbers of people. We'll find out shortly if it's as bad as everyone thinks (my own view is it probably will be).
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    It seems that she has grown a socialist type magic money tree. We all know where that ends.

    Here lies the remains of the Conservative Party reputation for economic competence. Died of a rabid fever called Brexit. RIP. 1979-2016.
    Actually Phil Hammond has a few billion up his sleeve, so it's hardly magic money. In any case, a bribe would be cheaper than the alternative.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,628
    nico67 said:

    So Leave areas get 1.6 billion spread over 7 years . Whilst NI could get bunged over a billion for a tiny fraction of the population over a much shorter timeframe .

    This really could be another May own goal.

    This MAY be another May own goal :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,349
    Scott_P said:

    Interesting that people being denied a vote last time is "legitimate", but people not being arsed to vote would make it "illegitimate"...
    EU citizens, you mean? If they cared so deeply about the UK they could have become citizens.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785

    It's patently absurd to argue that Cameron could have defined the Leave case for them. They can't even define it for themselves after three years of intensive negotiation and discussion. Any attempt by him to do so would immediately have been denounced as a bunch of lies designed to discredit the Leave position.

    Cameron is the last person to blame. He at least campaigned vigorously and full-throatedly for Remain, which is more than can be said for anyone in Labour or indeed anywhere else.
    Yes, but like a lot of other Tories he had been on the "trash the EU" bandwagon for quite a while that undermined his case. He is the man that risked the country's prosperity on black and it came up red.

    I voted for him in the leadership election, and in every other way I thought him a good leader, except for THAT decision. It wasn't leadership, it was shear folly.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,086
    Sandpit said:

    Or we could leave without a deal and they could get £39bn.

    (Yes I know it’s more complicated than that).
    Half of that is for previous obligations . The UK can save around half with no deal but then the EU will play hard ball on signing mini deals to alleviate the no deal issues .

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,487

    It seems that she has grown a socialist type magic money tree. We all know where that ends.

    Here lies the remains of the Conservative Party reputation for economic competence. Died of a rabid fever called Brexit. RIP. 1979-2016.
    Well, as others have put it, when you're singing karaoke, you belt it out with as much conviction as you can. The voters in general worry much less about philosophical consistency than we do.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785
    RobD said:

    EU citizens, you mean? If they cared so deeply about the UK they could have become citizens.
    One of the most stupid and ignorant comments I have seen on here. Have all the Brits in Spain become Spanish? Duh!
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729

    Yes, but like a lot of other Tories he had been on the "trash the EU" bandwagon for quite a while that undermined his case. He is the man that risked the country's prosperity on black and it came up red.

    I voted for him in the leadership election, and in every other way I thought him a good leader, except for THAT decision. It wasn't leadership, it was shear folly.
    Cut the nonsense :)
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844

    Anything we ever say on here is personal opinion including (whisper it in case anyone hears) you.

    It's an interesting debate - the transition period (should the deal pass) remains a danger zone for brexiteers because we will have left the EU technically, which would take the sting out of the argument that a second ref is antidemocratic, but we would still be closely enough aligned to the EU that it could be easy enough to call the whole thing off (hard to say on balance how the EU would react to a demand to reverse brexit given it would be seen as admitting that brexit has failed they would probably make it relatively easy for us)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Nigelb said:
    I don't get it...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,349

    One of the most stupid and ignorant comments I have seen on here. Have all the Brits in Spain become Spanish? Duh!
    Perhaps they don’t care deeply about Spain? ;) Many EU countries restrict vote to only citizens. The U.K. is quite unusual in that respect.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Yes, but like a lot of other Tories he had been on the "trash the EU" bandwagon for quite a while that undermined his case. He is the man that risked the country's prosperity on black and it came up red.

    I voted for him in the leadership election, and in every other way I thought him a good leader, except for THAT decision. It wasn't leadership, it was shear folly.
    He didn't have any choice, though. Don't forget the James Wharton bill, for example.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    nico67 said:

    Half of that is for previous obligations . The UK can save around half with no deal but then the EU will play hard ball on signing mini deals to alleviate the no deal issues .

    Yes of course, it’s simply highlighting the inconsistency in some of the numbers bandied around by various groups. The suggestion of £1.6bn in regional aid was a mistake given the size of all the other numbers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,194

    It's an interesting debate - the transition period (should the deal pass) remains a danger zone for brexiteers because we will have left the EU technically, which would take the sting out of the argument that a second ref is antidemocratic, but we would still be closely enough aligned to the EU that it could be easy enough to call the whole thing off (hard to say on balance how the EU would react to a demand to reverse brexit given it would be seen as admitting that brexit has failed they would probably make it relatively easy for us)
    Yes, in many ways the WA period is the best timing for a #peoplesvote.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,522

    Actually Phil Hammond has a few billion up his sleeve, so it's hardly magic money. In any case, a bribe would be cheaper than the alternative.
    The DUP sat and listened to Hammond's Spring Statement thinking "Oh really....."
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,349
    Foxy said:

    Yes, in many ways the WA period is the best timing for a #peoplesvote.
    Is it? If May’s deal does pass Ito be steady as she goes in terms of trading etc. with the EU. All of the doom-mongering about Brexit will be discredited without the UK having actually left.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,086
    RobD said:

    EU citizens, you mean? If they cared so deeply about the UK they could have become citizens.
    Will you be saying the same for UK nationals in the EU . Some countries don’t allow duel nationality and people were using their freedom of movement rights . And why would people who could avoid it now take a UK passport given it’s going to restrict their rights .

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    It's patently absurd to argue that Cameron could have defined the Leave case for them. They can't even define it for themselves after three years of intensive negotiation and discussion. Any attempt by him to do so would immediately have been denounced as a bunch of lies designed to discredit the Leave position.

    Cameron is the last person to blame. He at least campaigned vigorously and full-throatedly for Remain, which is more than can be said for anyone in Labour or indeed anywhere else.
    No its not. He could have followed the precedent of John Howard. Instead of betting the farm on a renegotiation then a referendum, he could have called a Royal Commission to determine what form Brexit would take (WTO, EEA etc) and then put that to a vote against remaining.

    John Howard was a monarchist who forced a definition of what an Australian republic would look like, then defeated that definition putting the issue to rest. That precedent could have been quite simply followed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,349
    nico67 said:

    Will you be saying the same for UK nationals in the EU . Some countries don’t allow duel nationality and people were using their freedom of movement rights . And why would people who could avoid it now take a UK passport given it’s going to restrict their rights .

    I think the majority of EU countries don’t allow non-citizens to vote.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    The context of Cameron's remarks was a rebuttal of what the Leave campaign were saying at the time, which was that after a Leave vote, there could be a renegotiation and a second referendum. Leave won, so why are Cameron's words gospel rather than the Leave campaign's?
    Because unlike Cameron Leave have never been in charge.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    Will you be saying the same for UK nationals in the EU . Some countries don’t allow duel nationality and people were using their freedom of movement rights . And why would people who could avoid it now take a UK passport given it’s going to restrict their rights .

    Yes I would. If a Brit emigrates to Spain but refuses to take Spanish nationality then absolutely they shouldn't vote in a Spanish election or referendum.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,086
    Scott_P said:
    How will we cope , I won’t be able to sleep at night with worry. So another clueless member of the cabinet resigns . I mean who cares !
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,474
    Think it's a slightly odd complaint that non-citizens, who come from the EU, should've been able to vote as to whether or not we stayed in.

    The Remain side(s) had significant advantages, and it's worth remembering the Leave campaigns were pretty rubbish too. Yet somehow they contrived to lose.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    One of the most stupid and ignorant comments I have seen on here. Have all the Brits in Spain become Spanish? Duh!
    Any that haven't don't get to vote in Spanish elections. That's not illegitimate.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,349
    nico67 said:

    How will we cope , I won’t be able to sleep at night with worry. So another clueless member of the cabinet resigns . I mean who cares !
    Does any political story pique your interest? :p
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    How will we cope , I won’t be able to sleep at night with worry. So another clueless member of the cabinet resigns . I mean who cares !
    Should have been the response when Amber Rudd threatened to re-resign.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,194
    RobD said:

    Is it? If May’s deal does pass Ito be steady as she goes in terms of trading etc. with the EU. All of the doom-mongering about Brexit will be discredited without the UK having actually left.
    It is only steady as it goes for the duration of the WA, the same arguements that we have currently then become sharper. CU +/- SM are the logical outcome. Why not want a say?

    Then there are the issues of demography, incuding naturalisation of a good percentage of our 3 million EU residents, and of buyers remorse, which already is a significant factor.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    No its not. He could have followed the precedent of John Howard. Instead of betting the farm on a renegotiation then a referendum, he could have called a Royal Commission to determine what form Brexit would take (WTO, EEA etc) and then put that to a vote against remaining.

    John Howard was a monarchist who forced a definition of what an Australian republic would look like, then defeated that definition putting the issue to rest. That precedent could have been quite simply followed.
    Yes, with hindsight that was the right way to proceed. For example, a question “Should we remain in the EU, or should we leave the EU and join the EEA?” - having made the required preparations with the EEA beforehand.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    It's an interesting debate - the transition period (should the deal pass) remains a danger zone for brexiteers because we will have left the EU technically, which would take the sting out of the argument that a second ref is antidemocratic, but we would still be closely enough aligned to the EU that it could be easy enough to call the whole thing off (hard to say on balance how the EU would react to a demand to reverse brexit given it would be seen as admitting that brexit has failed they would probably make it relatively easy for us)
    I think it would be reasonable enough to make the case for a referendum for rejoining after March 29th (or whatever the equivalent leaving date ends up being). At that point we would be outside the EU and the transition to being 'fully' out would be both very extended and probably difficult to define.

    I am not sure it would be an easy case to make (rejoining I mean not the referendum) as it would bring the various EU accession rules into play and commit us to joining the Euro which is now a treaty requirement for any new members.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,349
    Foxy said:

    It is only steady as it goes for the duration of the WA, the same arguements that we have currently then become sharper. CU +/- SM are the logical outcome. Why not want a say?

    Then there are the issues of demography, incuding naturalisation of a good percentage of our 3 million EU residents, and of buyers remorse, which already is a significant factor.
    Yes, but you were saying the WA period was the perfect time for another referendum. My point is things will be relatively unchanged if May’s deal is signed. So people will be told we have left, and wondering why we should bother spending another five years going back in.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Sandpit said:

    Yes, with hindsight that was the right way to proceed. For example, a question “Should we remain in the EU, or should we leave the EU and join the EEA?” - having made the required preparations with the EEA beforehand.
    Aren't we already in the EEA?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,086
    RobD said:

    I think the majority of EU countries don’t allow non-citizens to vote.
    Fine that’s fair enough I’m not arguing that point. Simply the way you conflate a passport with loyalty to the country or caring for it . As if people living in the UK from the EU don’t care about the country .
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    One of the most stupid and ignorant comments I have seen on here. Have all the Brits in Spain become Spanish? Duh!
    No but there is certainly an argument for saying they should. If you are going to make a new life in a new country then personally I think you should show commitment to that country.

    I know in Australia a few years ago they raised this as an issue and there were proposals to strip voting rights from the 160,000 Brits who had not taken out Australian citizenship.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,349
    nico67 said:

    Fine that’s fair enough I’m not arguing that point. Simply the way you conflate a passport with loyalty to the country or caring for it . As if people living in the UK from the EU don’t care about the country .
    You literally have to swear an oath of loyalty when you get citizenship. No conflating involved.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,702

    No but there is certainly an argument for saying they should. If you are going to make a new life in a new country then personally I think you should show commitment to that country.

    I know in Australia a few years ago they raised this as an issue and there were proposals to strip voting rights from the 160,000 Brits who had not taken out Australian citizenship.
    @Sandpit can tell us the citizenry requirements of Dubai. I'm sure he has swotted up on the mandatory test.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,379
    Scott_P said:
    We'll just have to be very very brave........
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,349
    TOPPING said:

    @Sandpit can tell us the citizenry requirements of Dubai. I'm sure he has swotted up on the mandatory test.
    Has he expressed a desire to vote in elections in Dubai? :p
  • eekeek Posts: 29,712
    TudorRose said:

    Aren't we already in the EEA?
    So the question should have been “Should we remain in the EU, or should we leave the EU but remain in the EEA?”

    Well the EU is a member of the EEA. From memory I think we leave EEA membership when we joined the EU as the EU as a whole is a member.
    The point is that the actual question had one fixed option (remain under Cameron's negotiated terms) or leave (for any ideal fantasy of leave anyone could imagine). So the question probably give leave an advantage due to unicorns in 2 million different colours and sizes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    TudorRose said:

    Aren't we already in the EEA?
    Only as members of the EU. There was some debate on this point in advance of the referendum, the conclusion being that we could have moved from EU to EEA with permission of the other EEA countries.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    RobD said:

    Perhaps they don’t care deeply about Spain? ;) Many EU countries restrict vote to only citizens. The U.K. is quite unusual in that respect.
    The only thing unique about the UK is that it extends the Parliamentary franchise to resident Commonwealth citizens (a legacy of the former common “United Kingdom and colonies” citizenship) and resident Irish citizens (because the Ireland Act 1949 requires them to be treated as if they were British citizens). In every other respect the UK follows the minimum required by the EU which is that resident EU citizens get to vote in local (including regional) and European elections.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,801
    edited March 2019
    Interesting analysis of TIG, suggesting that as things stand, only Heidi Allen would retain her seat.

    https://medium.com/@cerifowler/how-might-the-independent-group-fare-in-a-general-election-1dc61a48b1f
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited March 2019
    RobD said:

    I think the majority of EU countries don’t allow non-citizens to vote.
    We have an unusual situation wrt to Ireland whereby nationals of Ireland can vote in local and and national representative elections and vv. What Ireland doesn’t do is permit non-Irish citizens to vote in national referendums. And rightly so.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    eek said:

    So the question should have been “Should we remain in the EU, or should we leave the EU but remain in the EEA?”

    Well the EU is a member of the EEA. From memory I think we leave EEA membership when we joined the EU as the EU as a whole is a member.
    The point is that the actual question had one fixed option (remain under Cameron's negotiated terms) or leave (for any ideal fantasy of leave anyone could imagine). So the question probably give leave an advantage due to unicorns in 2 million different colours and sizes.
    No we didn't. We were members of the EEA as individual signatories both in EFTA and in the EEC/EU. All EU members are also individual members of the EEA but that membership depends on them being in either the EU or EFTA.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,086
    RobD said:

    You literally have to swear an oath of loyalty when you get citizenship. No conflating involved.
    An oath of loyalty is just words . It’s actions that count . Anyone can stand there giving an oath . You seem to think a passport is a judge of character . There are loads of Brits with passports who couldn’t give a fig about the country or their fellow citizens .
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,702
    RobD said:

    Has he expressed a desire to vote in elections in Dubai? :p
    @Tyndall: " If you are going to make a new life in a new country then personally I think you should show commitment to that country."

    nothing about voting.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    TOPPING said:

    @Sandpit can tell us the citizenry requirements of Dubai. I'm sure he has swotted up on the mandatory test.
    I still advocate Norway's approach. Basically they welcome immigrants but anyone wanting to settle has to take 300 hours of language and culture lessons and sit exams. There are also severe restrictions on what they can and cannot do in civic terms of they don't take citizenship. As I said during the Brevik discussions earlier, as a result they are one of the most integrated countries I have ever visited.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,349
    rpjs said:

    The only thing unique about the UK is that it extends the Parliamentary franchise to resident Commonwealth citizens (a legacy of the former common “United Kingdom and colonies” citizenship) and resident Irish citizens (because the Ireland Act 1949 requires them to be treated as if they were British citizens). In every other respect the UK follows the minimum required by the EU which is that resident EU citizens get to vote in local (including regional) and European elections.
    I’d say that’s quite unusual, given how big that grouping of counties is.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,349
    nico67 said:

    An oath of loyalty is just words . It’s actions that count . Anyone can stand there giving an oath . You seem to think a passport is a judge of character . There are loads of Brits with passports who couldn’t give a fig about the country or their fellow citizens .
    Actions like voting in elections, perhaps? ;)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    TOPPING said:

    @Tyndall: " If you are going to make a new life in a new country then personally I think you should show commitment to that country."

    nothing about voting.
    Indeed but I have no idea if Sandpit is intending staying in Dubai permanently or just temporarily.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,712

    No we didn't. We were members of the EEA as individual signatories both in EFTA and in the EEC/EU. All EU members are also individual members of the EEA but that membership depends on them being in either the EU or EFTA.
    Fair enough so the question should have been

    “Should we remain in the EU, or should we leave the EU and join the EFTA so that we remain within the EEA?”

    Which I suspect is a question where you and me might have been some of the few to go for the leave option...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    Interesting analysis of TIG, suggesting that as things stand, only Heidi Allen would retain her seat.

    https://medium.com/@cerifowler/how-might-the-independent-group-fare-in-a-general-election-1dc61a48b1f

    I am not surprised. It is the nature of the system as it stands and even though I disagree with them I would not look upon it as a reflection of their own abilities or popularity.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,349
    TOPPING said:

    @Tyndall: " If you are going to make a new life in a new country then personally I think you should show commitment to that country."

    nothing about voting.
    I’m not sure he was keen on staying there permanently. So probably best he doesn’t have the right to vote in referenda concerning that country’s medium and long-term future.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,801
    eek said:

    Fair enough so the question should have been

    “Should we remain in the EU, or should we leave the EU and join the EFTA so that we remain within the EEA?”

    Which I suspect is a question where you and me might have been some of the few to go for the leave option...
    Except the EEA treaty does not permit that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,487

    Interesting analysis of TIG, suggesting that as things stand, only Heidi Allen would retain her seat.

    https://medium.com/@cerifowler/how-might-the-independent-group-fare-in-a-general-election-1dc61a48b1f

    8 out of the 11 would have a decent chance of winning, according to that analysis.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    TOPPING said:

    @Sandpit can tell us the citizenry requirements of Dubai. I'm sure he has swotted up on the mandatory test.
    My two nephews were born in Dubai and have lived here all their short lives. They will never be Emirati, not even if they marry Emirati women.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Yes, but like a lot of other Tories he had been on the "trash the EU" bandwagon for quite a while that undermined his case. He is the man that risked the country's prosperity on black and it came up red.

    I voted for him in the leadership election, and in every other way I thought him a good leader, except for THAT decision. It wasn't leadership, it was shear folly.
    And that single catastrophic misjudgement will be his epitaph, nothing else he did will rate as much as a footnote in the history books. Who now remembers Neville Chamberlain's successful period as Minister of Health or Anthony Eden's principled opposition to appeasement.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,712

    I still advocate Norway's approach. Basically they welcome immigrants but anyone wanting to settle has to take 300 hours of language and culture lessons and sit exams. There are also severe restrictions on what they can and cannot do in civic terms of they don't take citizenship. As I said during the Brevik discussions earlier, as a result they are one of the most integrated countries I have ever visited.
    One reason why the UK is such a popular country for immigration is that most people speaks English (to some extent). An obscure language allows companies in the Netherlands and elsewhere (merely picking them as I know more examples than elsewhere) to be racist in a legal way (language proficiency) that we just cannot use.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,349
    Sean_F said:

    8 out of the 11 would have a decent chance of winning, according to that analysis.
    That analysis is also based on them getting 18% of the national vote, if I read the article correctly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Indeed but I have no idea if Sandpit is intending staying in Dubai permanently or just temporarily.
    Very few foreigners have the right to live in the sandpit permanently.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    No its not. He could have followed the precedent of John Howard. Instead of betting the farm on a renegotiation then a referendum, he could have called a Royal Commission to determine what form Brexit would take (WTO, EEA etc) and then put that to a vote against remaining.

    John Howard was a monarchist who forced a definition of what an Australian republic would look like, then defeated that definition putting the issue to rest. That precedent could have been quite simply followed.
    Yes, the Leavers were really, really keen on that idea. I remember them stridently demanding it.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,996

    It's patently absurd to argue that Cameron could have defined the Leave case for them. They can't even define it for themselves after three years of intensive negotiation and discussion. Any attempt by him to do so would immediately have been denounced as a bunch of lies designed to discredit the Leave position.

    Cameron is the last person to blame. He at least campaigned vigorously and full-throatedly for Remain, which is more than can be said for anyone in Labour or indeed anywhere else.
    Preparation for outcomes is a central government and civil service task.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    Except the EEA treaty does not permit that.
    As you well know that is a matter that we long debated and never settled.
This discussion has been closed.